Betting Recap - Week 1
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
College Football Week 1 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 86-9
Against the Spread 43-51-1
Home-Away
Straight Up 73-15
Against the Spread 42-45-1
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 46-43-4
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up (neutral site) 7-1
Against the Spread (neutral site) 5-3
Over-Under (neutral site) 4-3-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Howard (+45, ML +71500) at UNLV, 43-40
Liberty (+33, ML +7500) at Baylor, 48-45
Maryland (+18.5, ML +800) at Texas, 51-41
The largest favorites to cover
Texas Christian (-59.5) vs. Jackson State, 63-0
Oklahoma (-43) vs. Texas-El Paso, 56-7
Wake Forest (-42.5) vs.Presbyterian, 51-7
Top 25 Notes
The first full weekend of college football is in the books and what a memorable weekend it was for a variety of reasons. Top-ranked Alabama passed a stern test on a neutral field, topping Florida State by a 24-7 count. It was a costly loss for the Seminoles, too, as they lost QB Deondre Francois for the season due to patella tendon injury. ... Back on Aug. 26, Stanford cooked Rice by a 62-7 count down in Australia, as the Cardinal fire out of the chute this season. ... Oklahoma State took care of business in the opening weekend, pushing aside in-state rival Tulsa, 59-24 as a 19 1/2-point favorite. ... No. 2 Ohio State recovered after a sluggish start to blast Indiana by a 49-21 mark, outscoring the Hoosiers 36-7 in the final two quarters. ... Wisconsin closed as a 27-point favorite against UtahState, 59-10. The Aggies of USU actually led 10-0 into the second quarter. ... Defending champ Clemson fired out of the chute, smoking Kent State 56-3 for an easy cover. ... Florida led Michigan 17-13 at halftime in Jerry's World, but the second half was all Michigan. They Wolveriines outscored the Gators 20-0 en route to the impressive opening-game win.
Georgia picked up a 31-10 victory over Appalachian State, comfortably covering the 12 1/2-point number. It was a costly victory, however, as QB Jacob Eason suffered a sprained ligament in his left knee. He'll miss Saturday's game at Notre Dame, as head coach Kirby Smart is expected to give Jake Fromm the nod.
Houston was invited to the party last season, upending Florida State in the Peach Bowl. This season, they're the favorite from the Group of Five to crash the New Year's Day bowls again. Their bid got off to a great start with a 33-23 win over Oklahoma at NRG Field in Houston, which was technically a neutral-site game.
Three games were canceled due to the after effects of Hurricane Harvey, including the Houston-Texas San Antonio battle. The two schools are looking into potential make-up dates later in the season. Both teams hit the road next week for their opening battles, as the Cougars will be in Tucson to tackle Arizona. Meanwhile, the Road Runners will head to Baylor looking to add to the woes of the Bears.
Big Five Conference Report
The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) had a so-so weekend, but lost the games which mattered most. In the Tennessee-Georgia Tech game to wrap up the first week, head coach Paul Johnson elected to go for a 2-point conversion at the end of double-overtime rather than play it safe and move on to the next stanza. If you're an 'under' bettor you won't believe the score if you went to bed early. ... North Carolina was dumped at home by California, 35-30, as the Tar Heels have to go back to the drawing board after the disappointing loss. UNC is now 0-3 SU over the past three seasons, and a disturbing 0-5 ATS over the past five season openers dating back to Sept. 1, 2012.
It was a mostly productive weekend for the Big Ten. Michigan State pulled off an impressive 35-10 win over Bowling Green. ...Maryland pulled off one of the bigger surprises in Week 1, besting Tom Herman and the Longhorns of Texas, 51-41. The Terps had been 0-4 ATS as a double-digit dog over their past four tries. ... Iowa grinded out a tough 24-3 win over Wyoming in their opener, limiting NFL prospect QB Josh Allen and the Cowboys to just 233 total yards. ... Purdue earned the cover in a 35-28 loss against Louisville, easily hitting on a 25 1/2-point number. The Boilermakers are 10-1-1 ATS across their past 12 as an underdog of 18 or more points.
One of the biggest shockers came in Waco as Baylor was burned 48-45 at home against FCS Liberty. The Bears are a dismal 2-4 ATS across their past six against FCS foes. ... No upsets in Ames this season, as Iowa State handled FCS Northern Iowa by a 42-24 count as 10-point favorites. The Panthers toppled the Cyclones 25-20 in last season's opener. ... West Virginia fell 31-24 to Virginia Tech in a neutral-site battle, as the Mountaineers were unable to cover a five-point number. The total also pushed in this highly entertaining game from Sunday night. ... Kansas earned a rare win, 38-16, over FCS Southeast Missouri State. The Jayhawks are 6-41 SU over the past three seasons, and two of those wins are against SESU. One win was a 24-10 victory on Sept. 10, 2014 against Central Michigan, next week's opponent.
UCLA exacted revenge for last season's loss at Texas A&M in amazing fashion, erasing a 44-10 deficit to win 45-44 on Sunday night. The Bruins entered the final quarter down 44-17, ruining the nights of Aggies moneyline bettors, who stood to win between +130 and +210 depending on when their wager was made. ... Southern California openered with a 49-31 hard-fought win against Western Michigan, last year's surprise Cotton Bowl entrant. The 'over' is now 3-0 in the past three for USC after a seven-game under run from Oct. 1 to Nov. 19 last season. ... Utah edged always dangerous North Dakota by a 37-16 score, just covering a 20 1/2-point number in SLC.
The SEC posted a 10-2 SU and 7-6 ATS mark in the opening weekend, as side bettors were stung by a couple of late scores. See bad beats below. ... South Carolina toppled North Carolina State in an entertaining battle, 35-28. The Gamecocks are a respectable 4-2-1 ATS over their past seven, including a 31-21 win and cover against Missouri, next week's opponent. ... Louisiana State fired out of the gate with a 27-0 beatdown of Brigham Young in Atlanta, as the Cougars didn't cross into Tigers territory once in the game. The last time BYU was shut out came on Sept. 26, 2015 in Michigan.
Mid-Major Report
South Florida has huge expectations this season, and so far they're off to a 2-0 SU start. However, they have failed to cover in each of their outings. ... UCF slaughtered Florida International by a 61-17 count, easily covering a 17 1/2-point spread. ... Cincinnati and Connecticut each stumbled in their openers against FCS foes, winning straight up but failing to come close to covering a big number. ... Navy spoiled the debut of Lane Kiffin at Florida Atlantic, winning a 42-19 decision on Friday in lightning-plagued Boca Raton. ... East Carolina showed why they were a 2 1/2-point underdog to FCS James Madison, as the Dukes bowled them over by a 34-14 score. ... The AAC finished 4-8 ATS this past weekennd.
Alabama-Birmingham celebrated its return to the gridiron with a 38-7 hammering of Alabama A&M of the FCS. It was their first game after a two-year hiatus from football. ... Marshall posted a 31-26 win at home against Miami (Ohio), winning as a rare home underdog. The Thundering Herd is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS over its past five season openers. ... Temple was creamed 49-16 against Notre Dame, as the post-Matt Rhule area is off to a shaky start.
Central Michigan narrowly escaped an embarrssing defeat at home to FCS Rhode Island, winning 30-27 in double overtime. The result still left 'over' bettors scratching their heads. ... Ball State fought for a 24-21 road loss and cover in Illinois. ... Northern Illinois hung on for a home cover against Boston College in the home opener. ... Northeast Ohio rivals Akron and Kent State were hammered by a combined 108-3 score in their games against Clemson and Penn State. ... Ohio thrashed FCS Hampton by a 59-0 score, easily hitting a 36-point number.
UNLV was embarrassed at home, dropping a 43-40 decision against FCS Howard. The Runnin' Rebels closed as 45-point favorites. ... Fresno State humped up on FCS Incarnate Word, pounding them 66-0 to easily cover a five-touchdown spread. ... Hawaii is off to a 2-0 SU start following their 41-18 win against Western Carolina. The Warriors opened with a rare road win on the mainland in Massachusetts on Aug. 26.
Bad Beats
If you were holding a moneyline ticket for A&M against UCLA, condolensces.
Troy State side bettors were covering for the entire game at Boise State until 2:12 to go, turning a cover as 11-point underdogs into a push for most.
South Alabama went down 47-13 with 11:41 to go in Mississippi as just a 22-point underdog. After a pair of Cole Garvin rushing touchdowns, the Jaguars were able to earn the backdoor cover with a TD at 4:04 to go in regulation.
'Over' (63) side bettors were feeling pretty good with 10:20 to go in the UTEP-Oklahoma game, but they had to settle for a push as defense ruled the final quarter.
College Football Betting Recap Week 1
By Tristian Owusu
Bangthebook.com
There is nothing like the start of football season. The energy you feel is contagious as you cheer for or against teams. Week 1 provided some good football, but remember to not overreact to what you saw. It is important to take things on a week to week basis to understand how you can find your edge in the coming weeks. Here are a few things to think about going forward.
Indiana came out guns blazing. They utilized their up-tempo offense effectively and punched Ohio State in the mouth. The ability to get up on the line quickly and run plays affects how the defense can react to mistakes they make. If a defensive players misses an assignment usually someone tells him how he messed up and what he should of done; however, tempo makes it difficult to fix mistakes as the offense gets on the ball very quickly. If a defense cannot get a negative play (0 yards on a down) then the offense will usually continue to have success. Indiana utilized this well in the 1st half and we successful in all phases of offense. They also used their larger receivers to dominate on the outside versus man coverage of the young OSU dbs. Unfortunately, in the 2nd half tempo backfired as Indiana continued to use tempo when they were not being successful on early downs. Teams that continue to go fast when they are not successful usually go 3 and out which gives the other team more chances to score. Going forward Indiana will be a team to go over the total especially against teams with average defenses as they will exploit matchups and go up and down the field. Also look for similar matchups to play on Indiana as well.
Ohio State defense had a rough 1st half but settled down in the 2nd half. As mentioned the defensive backs had a rough time with the larger IU receivers, but it was a great challenge to start the season. With the talent OSU has look for this part of the team to become a strength as the season goes on. OSU continued to go with man press coverage despite the abuse we watched. OSU could have done a better job of using off man coverage to make it easier, but they were determined to make it work. Once the young dbs get comfortable with press and mix in off man coverage other teams are in trouble. Look for the OSU defense to continue to improve which will help them cover the spread so make sure to get the best of the lines on OSU. There will also be great value going under on opponents team totals.
Illinois are a team with live bullets but using a powder gun. They had so many chances to take control of the game but they lack efficiency on offense. They were 2-10 on third down and outgained by 149 yards. How can this team win games if they cannot convert on third down? They will not be successful at this rate. Not to mention they were given great field position from their defense, but went three and out on numerous occasions. While the team has talented players it seems the coaching staff struggles to utilize it effectively. As of now this is a team to fade. Check your numbers and look to go against Illinois any way possible.
The Florida Gators looked dreadful on offense once again. They struggled to move the ball effectively and were unable to score an offensive touchdown. 2 -13 on third down and only 11 yards rushing explains how poor the offense was on Saturday. Unfortunately, in year three of the McElwain this is much of the same, and in this game they were unable to eclipse 200 total yards. The defense is the saving grace for Florida as Michigan was able to get into Florida territory very often but had to settle for field goals. Florida forced Michigan attempt six field goals, and scored two defensive touchdowns. The defense has a lot of new faces, but after a tough game like this they should only improve. Look for Florida to continue to have issues putting up points and play good defense. Find ways to go under the total in Gator games.
Alabama plays good football and that should come as no surprise. The game never really seemed in doubt and look for that to be the same going forward. The special teams came up big on Saturday night as well and you can expect them to continue to be aggressive. Alabama has a chip on their shoulder from losing the national championship. Look for them to impose their will on opponents and cover the number. The number will be large in Bama games so get creative with team totals, 1st half, and even quarters.
Week 1 - The Aftermath
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The main event in Week 1 was Alabama vs. Florida State in Atlanta at the brand-new Mercedes-Benz Dome. The Crimson Tide captured a 24-7 win over FSU as a 7.5-point favorite, while the 31 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 51-point total.
Nick Saban’s team got a pair of huge special-teams plays to help put the game out of reach. Jalen Hurts found Calvin Ridley on a bomb in the second quarter to put Alabama ahead to stay by a 10-7 score. FSU’s defense kept it in the game before its special teams blunders put the contest out of reach.
The loss for the Seminoles would’ve been fine for their ACC and College Football Playoff hopes. However, the loss of star sophomore QB Deondre Francois to a season-ending patella tendon injury likely dooms all intentions of making the CFP. True freshman James Blackman becomes the starting QB moving forward, and the three other scholarship QBs on the roster are also freshmen (two are redshirts, though).
Alabama also lost a pair of OLB’s to season-ending injuries. Those are Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis. The Crimson Tide is favored by 44 at home vs. Fresno State on Saturday. They are an abysmal 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games as favorites of 35 points or more.
Tennessee played from behind most of Monday night in Atlanta against Georgia Tech, but it forced a fumble late in the fourth quarter to set up a short game-tying TD to force overtime once the Yellow Jackets missed a potential game-winning field goal at the end of regulation. In double OT, Paul Johnson opted to go for two and the win, only to fail and drop a 42-41 heartbreaker. The Jackets took the cash as four-point underdogs, however.
Kevin Sumlin came into 2017 on the hottest seat in the nation but for nearly all of three quarters, that seat was cooling at a frenetic pace with Texas A&M leading 44-10 at UCLA. But that’s when everything went to hell. Josh Rosen turned in a from-the-heavens performance in the final stanza, including a fake-the-spike move straight out of the Dan Marino playbook on a TD pass that pulled the Bruins to within 44-38.
Rosen’s fourth TD pass of the final stanza was a 10-yard scoring strike to Jordan Lasley with 43 ticks left to lift UCLA to a 45-44 win in one of the greatest comebacks in college football history. Making matters worse for the Aggies, they lost redshirt freshman QB Nick Starkel (broken ankle) and senior DB Donovan Wilson (foot) to injuries that will keep them out for an indefinite period of time, perhaps the entire season.
Despite losing a ton of personnel, including 10 starters on defense, Michigan looked outstanding in a 33-17 win over Florida in Dallas that was probably the most misleading final score of Week 1. UF got a pair of pick-sixes in back-to-back fashion to take the lead going into halftime. But the Gators’ offense was as inept as usual, producing 11 rushing yards and 192 yards of total offense.
Although Jim McElwain has taken UF to SEC East titles in his first two years, the division is in its Dark Ages Era and UF has been destroyed by FSU, Alabama and Michigan in three of its last four games. If Florida can’t show some life offensively, McElwain will be joining Sumlin and Butch Jones on the hot seat soon.
Outside of UF & A&M's woes, it was a great week for the SEC with its 12-2 record. This space has been bullish on South Carolina for many months and Will Muschamp’s team delivered in its opener vs. N.C. State in Charlotte. The Gamecocks led for nearly the entire 60 minutes of a 35-28 win as seven-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a payout in the +240 range. Jake Bentley threw for three TDs with two of those going to Deebo Samuel, who had a sick one-handed TD grab and returned the opening kickoff for a TD.
Has Vanderbilt ever looked stronger coming out of Week 1? The Commodores had not won a season opener since James Franklin’s debut in 2011. But on Saturday night in Murfreesboro, Vandy scored TDs on its first three dives on its way to a dominant 28-6 win at Middle Tennessee. Derek Mason’s defense pitched a shutout for three quarters before Brent Stockstill connected with Richie James for a 22-yard scoring strike with 11:54 remaining in the fourth quarter. Stockstill had a 31/7 TD-INT ratio last year, but the ‘Dores limited him to 166 passing yards and intercepted him in the first quarter.
Kyle Shurmur picked up where he left off in November, scorching MT’s defense for 298 passing yards and three TDs without an interception. The junior signal caller completed 20-of-28 passes. Senior RB Ralph Webb, who is already the school’s all-time leading rusher, was held to 49 rushing yards on 24 attempts. But he had a rushing score and caught three passes for 104 yards and another TD. Trent Sherfield had four receptions for 68 yards, while Kalija Lipscomb had two catches for 41 yards and two TDs.
Vandy was in its first road ‘chalk’ spot of Mason’s tenure and it easily covered the number as a three-point favorite. Kentucky was also in its first road favorite role on Mark Stoops’s watch, but the Wildcats disappointed their supporters as 9.5-point favorites. Nevertheless, UK won a 24-17 decision and appears poised to take a 2-0 record into South Carolina in Week 3.
Georgia lost QB Jacob Eason to an injury vs. Appalachian State, but he will be back this season. Not this week, though, as true freshman QB Jake Fromm will get his first career start at Notre Dame. That’s never an ideal scenario, but the Houston County HS product (Warner Robbins, GA.) looked outstanding in guiding UGA to a 31-10 win over a very solid Appalachian State club. The Bulldogs covered the number as 13-point home ‘chalk.’
Fromm completed 10-of-15 throws for 143 yards and one TD without an interception, showing the poise of a veteran signal caller the entire way. Nick Chubb ran for a pair of scores and the combination of Chubb and Sony Michel produced 183 rushing yards.
The debut of Tom Herman at Texas was a colossal fail, as Maryland went into Austin and won by a 51-41 count as a 19-point road underdog. The win was costly for the Terrapins, however, as starting QB Tyrrell Pigrome was lost to a season-ending ACL tear. Pigrome had thrown two TD passes and ran for another. True freshman Kasim Hill, a four-star recruit, will get the starting nod Saturday vs. Towson.
Another disturbing debut came for Matt Rhule at Baylor, as the Bears lost 48-45 at home to FSC foe Liberty. As for UNLV, it fell victim to the biggest upset in college football history when Cam Newton’s younger brother Caylin led Howard to a 43-40 win over the Rebels as a 45-point underdog at Sam Boyd Stadium. Newton rushed 190 yards and two TDs on 21 carries and also threw for 140 yards and one TD.
Clemson’s only question mark coming into 2017 was inexperience at the QB position, but new junior starter Kelly Bryant looked sharp in a 56-3 win over Kent State as a 38-point home favorite. Bryant threw for 236 yards and one TD while also rushing for 77 yards and one score.
Ohio State trailed 14-13 at Indiana on Thursday at halftime, only to pour it on in the final 30 minutes en route to a 49-21 win as a 20.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The Hoosiers lost last year’s leading receiver Nick Westbrook to a season-ending ACL tear.
Wisconsin, the favorite to win the Big Ten West, demolished Utah State by a 59-10 count after falling behind 10-0 in the first quarter. Penn State also cruised to a 52-0 home victory over Akron, while Iowa stymied overrated Wyoming QB Josh Allen in a 24-3 home triumph. Purdue nearly pulled an upset to start the Jeff Brohm Era, but Louisville was able to get a non-covering 35-28 win in Indianapolis.
Southern California trailed for good chunks of its opener vs. Western Michigan and the game was tied midway through the fourth quarter. Sam Darnold threw two interceptions and zero TD passes, but the defense and running game tightened up late in the fourth quarter of a non-covering 49-31 win over the Broncos. The Trojans must play better in order to beat a rested Stanford squad that invades The Coliseum this weekend.
Another injury to note is Arkansas losing its best cover corner in Ryan Pulley, who sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in the Hogs' 49-7 win over FAMU.