Betting Recap - Week 10
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
College Football Week 10 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 42-19
Against the Spread 29-32
Home-Away
Straight Up 40-21
Against the Spread 33-28
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 27-33-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Iowa (+21, ML +1000) vs. Ohio State, 55-24
Michigan State (+10, ML +330) vs. Penn State, 27-24
Louisiana-Monroe (+8.5, ML +260) vs. Appalachian State, 52-45
Virginia (+8.5, ML +260) vs. Georgia Tech, 40-36
The largest favorites to cover
Eastern Michigan (-24.5) vs. Ball State, 56-14
San Diego State (-24) at San Jose State, 52-7
Houston (-23) vs. East Carolina, 52-27
Boise State (-20.5) vs. Nevada, 41-14
Middle Tennessee (-20) vs. Texas-El Paso, 30-3
Top 25 Notes
Ohio State-Iowa was expected to be a blowout, with the line moving to 21 by kickoff. And it turned out to be a blowout, only not the way Vegas expected. The Hawkeyes rose to the occasion, while the Buckeyes came out flat, and Iowa rolled up a 55-24 win to effectively end Ohio State's playoff hopes. The 'over' hit for the sixth consecutive game for the Buckeyes, but this time it was due to a lack of defense and not their high-flying offense. ... Miami-Florida proved they're for real, humbling Virginia Tech by a 28-10 score. It was the first cover for the Canes in four games since their miraculous comeback win at Florida State back on Oct. 7. The 'under' has hit in six in a row for Miami, and seven of eight overall. Next up, a date with Notre Dame. Catholics vs. Convicts, anyone?
Alabama won a defensive battle against visiting Louisiana State, 24-10. The Tide slipped to 1-3 ATS over the past four outings,while the 'under' is now 3-1 over their past four. Since that wake-up call against Troy, the Tigers are 3-1 SU/ATS.
Washington kept its faint playoff hopes alive with a 38-3 beating of Oregon. The Huskies have outscored the Ducks 108-24 over the past two meetings. The Huskies improved to 5-1 ATS over their past six games, while the 'under is also 5-1 over the same stretch. Next up is an important Friday date with Stanford.
Southern California dealt Arizona bettors a bitter pill to swallow. The Trojans were in control of the game, up 28-6, but they Arizona stormed back and tied the game 35-35. Down 42-35, the Wildcats were moving the ball, but an interception thwarted their chance to tie the game, giving USC great field position. USC went on to score and spoil what would have been a nice comeback cover for the Wildcats.
Memphis posted a 41-14 victory at Tulsa on Friday night. The Tigers led just 21-14 at half, but took over in the second half for the cover. Memphis has covered three in a row, and they're 4-0-1 ATS over the past five outings. They're also 3-0 ATS over their past three games on the road.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
Clemson edged North Carolina State 38-31, as the Wolfpack came up just short for the second consecutive season against the defending champs. After opening 1-4 ATS over the first five games, N.C. State is 3-1 ATS over the past four outings. The Tigers slipped to 0-3-1 ATS over their past four outings. ... Florida State topped Syracuse for what is a rare win these days in Tallahassee. The Seminoles have still not covered this season, too, going 0-6-2 ATS overall. The 'under' is 7-1 in eight tries for the 'Noles.
Wisconsin is the last great hope for the Big Ten in the chase for a playoff spot with Ohio State and Penn State each suffering a second loss.The Badgers rolled up a 45-17 win at Indiana to move to 9-0 SU. Oddly enough, the Badgers have alternated covers and non-covers in every game this season. Does that mean a cover for the Hawkeyes next week in Madison? ... Northwestern needed overtime for the third consecutive weekend, and they pulled off a third straight win in the extra session tobecome bowl eligible. The Wildcats are now 4-0 ATS over the past four outings, and 6-1 ATS over their past seven.
Baylor posted its first win of the season, topping Kansas 38-9 in Lawrence. The Bears entered the game as a seven-point favorite despite the fact they were 0-8 SU. ... In Bedlam in Stillwater, the scoreboard operator has blisters on their fingers after working the board. Oklahoma outlasted OkIahome State by a 62-52 count, easily cashing the 'over' (76). Believe it or not, there was a scoreless quarter in this game, as the Cowboys failed to put up any points in the third quarter.
UCLA's QB Josh Rosen didn't make the trip to Salt Lake City due to injury, and the Bruins offense struggled on Friday night at Rice-Eccles. Utah blasted the Bruins 48-17 to snuff out a four-game losing skid and move within one game of earning bowl eligibility. ... California shook off a pesky Oregon State by a 37-23 score. Like the Utes, the Bears are within one game of punching their ticket to the postseason. The Bears are 3-1 ATS over the past four games, and the 'over' has hit in three in a row.
It was the annual SEC vs. cupcakes weekend for some schools, but oddly enough in the four SEC vs. non-conference teams, only Tennessee and Vanderbilt picked up wins and covers. Arkansas needed late heroics to push aside Coastal Carolina, 39-38. The Chanticleers led 38-32 until the Razorbacks scored the game-winning touchdown and all-important extra point with 1:55 to go. ... South Carolina fell at Georgia 24-10, but they improved to 3-0-2 ATS over the past five outings.
Mid-Major Report
Road teams went 4-2 SU in the American Athletic Conference this weekend, but it was home teams posting a 4-2 ATS mark. Only the aforementioned Memphis and Cincinnati covered away from home. ... After opening 5-0 ATS, UCF slipped to 0-2-1 ATS over the past three outings. They remain 8-0 SU and a candidate for the Group of Five New Year's Bowl Game, etc. ... Houston belted visiting East Carolina, covering for the second straight outing. It is the first time the Cougars have covered back-to-back games since Sept. 9-16, the first two games of the regular season.
Florida Atlantic moved to 5-0 in the conference for the first time in school history, topping Marshall 30-25, but this was one of the worst bad beats in recent memory (see below). ... FAU isn't the only surprise C-USA team in South Florida, as Florida International keeps winning, too. The Golden Panthers and visiting Texas-San Antonio were scoreless midway through the third quarter. FIU proceeded to win 14-7 to improve to 6-2 SU, while covering for the third straight outing. ... Charlotte-Old Dominion was the lowest scoring game in FBS this season, as the Monarchs outlasted the 49ers 6-0. ODU won, but slipped to 1-5 ATS over the past six outings.
UNLV won for the second straight outing, pushing aside Hawaii 31-23. They're 6-2 ATS over the past eight outings. ... Wyoming picked up a 16-13 win at home against Colorado State as four-point 'dogs, improving to 6-0 ATS over the past six outings. The 'under' has also cashed in three straight for the Cowboys. ... New Mexico's power outage on offense continued, as they've scored just 9.3 PPG over the past four outings. They're 1-3 ATS over the past four games, and it's no surprise the 'under' is a perfect 4-0.
In Sun Belt, Fun Belt action, New Mexico State posted a 45-35 road win and cover as nine-point favorites at Texas State. The Aggies are an impressive 4-1-1 ATS in six road outings this season. ... If you like 'over' results, remember Louisiana-Monroe. They picked up a 52-45 win over Appalachian State, as the over improved to 6-1 over the past seven, and 7-2 in nine games overall this season.
Bad Beats
The weekend kicked off with one of the ugliest bad beats in recent memory. FAU (-6.5) held a 30-23 lead with just a little over two minutes left while holding the ball. Marshall has no timeouts left, either. When it came to fourth down with the Owls inside their own 20 yard line, head coach Lane Kiffin instructed his punter to run through the back of the end zone for a safety. No problem, as the Owls still won the game and became bowl eligible. However, that safety changed the side from the favorite cashing, to the underdog, with just :08 remaining in regulation. OUCH.
Northwestern scored a touchdown to force overtime in Lincoln, tying the game at 24 with a total of 55. The Wildcats scored a touchdown to start OT, and the Cornhuskers were unable to answer. The game was the only total push of the weekend, but if not for overtime it would have been an 'under' results.
'Under' (49.5) bettors in Wisconsin-Indiana were OK with just 41 points on the board through three quarters. Even with a touchdown at the 10-minute mark, the under was still technically OK. However, there were two touchdowns in the final 5:19 to push the total well over.
Side bettors of Illinois (+14) felt good, down just 16-10 with 3:47 to go in the third quarter, and the Boilermakers down to their second-string QB due to an earlier injury. However, backup Elijah Sindelar ralled the team for 13 late points to dash the hopes of Illini bettors late.
Most bettors in Florida-Missouri had a line of 61.5, or even 61, which turned out to be OK. Some 'under' bettors had 60.5, and that's no bueno. The Tigers booted a meaningless field goal with :45 left in regulation, at least meaningless to the side, as Mizzou won 45-16. But that field goal changed a sure 'under' into an 'over' for some.