Betting Recap - Week 3
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
Overall Notes
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 59-8
Against the Spread 30-35-2
Home-Away
Straight Up 47-20
Against the Spread 25-40-2
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 27-25
The largest underdog to win straight up: Furman (+24.5, ML +1565) at UCF, 16-15
The largest favorite to cover: Mississippi State (-38.5) vs. Northwestern State, 62-13
Top 25 Notes
After a couple of weeks with few upsets to the top teams, it was topsy-turvy Saturday from coast to coast, and it almost came to the doorstep of the national champs. Ohio State entered their game as a 34 1/2 point favorite, but they had to hang on for dear life against Northern Illinois, 20-13. The MAC contender had several chances to extend the game, but the champs pulled through. ... Alabama wasn't as lucky in their SEC opener against Mississippi. Ole Miss fired ahead 30-13 before a spirited comeback by the Tide. After some late scores, an onside kick and some questionable clock management by Hugh Freeze and company, the Rebels were able to notch their second straight victory against the Tide. ... It wasn't quite shades of 2007 for Southern California, but Stanford paid a visit as a 10-point underdog and came out of the Coliseum with a victory. USC looked like one of the most complete teams, but facing Arkansas State and Idaho is obviously quite different than a conference foe. ... Missouri was a three-touchdown favorite against Connecticut, but fell behind 6-2 at halftime before eeking out a 9-6 win. ... In a battle of Top 15 teams it was Louisiana State pulling away from Auburn, 45-21. The Tigers probably should have lost last week to FCS Jacksonville State, outlasting them in overtime. In this battle of Tigers they weren't even in the same class. The major players in the state of Alabama went 0-2, as both the Tide and Tigers slipped up.
Georgia continues to make noise in the SEC East, dumping disappointing South Carolina by a 52-20 score. The Bulldogs are now 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS with the 'over' connecting in two of their three games.
I attended the Northwestern-Duke game Saturday, and it was throwback weekend at Wallace Wade Stadium. It was a throwback game, too, as the Wildcats defense looked sharp, and so did the Blue Devils. There was plenty of 'three yards and a cloud of dust' football, hard hits and solid special teams. Neither team is likely to be a serious contender for a championship, but these are two solid bowl teams. The Wildcats are now 3-0 SU/ATS, and the 'under' has hit in each of their three contests to date.
The magic finally ran out for Brigham Young in their trip to UCLA. However, they easily covered the 16 1/2-point number at the Rose Bowl, falling 24-23 after a last-second interception. For the third straight game the 'under' cashed for the Bruins. For BYU, they moved to 3-0 ATS heading into their game next weekend at Michigan.
Notre Dame has had a ton of injuries, including the quarterback position, but good teams find a way to plug holes. DeShone Kizer stepped in for the injured Malik Zaire and led the Irish to a 30-22 win against Georgia Tech, and it might not even have been that close.
Big Five Conference Report
There were mixed results in the Atlantic Coast Conference this weekend. Clemson scratched out a 20-17 road win in the conference opener at Louisville, although the Cardinals covered in the low-scoring game. ... Florida State had it on lockdown at Boston College Friday night, scoring once offensively and once defensively in a 14-0 win. The under has hit in two straight games for FSU, and their defense is allowing just 10.0 PPG. ... Syracuse continues to do it with mirrors, moving to 3-0 SU. They failed to cover for the first time in their overtime win against Central Michigan, but the extra session did help the over come in for the third time is as many games. ... North Carolina State hit the road for Old Dominion, and they continue to shine. The Wolfpack has scored at least 35 points in each of their three games, covering in each outing.
Michigan State edged Air Force 35-21, as the Spartans failed to cover for the third time in as many games. They face Central Michigan next Saturday in East Lansing. ... Minnesota struggled against Kent State, edging the Golden Flashes 10-7 despite being a 24-point favorite. The Golden Gophers have won two in a row, but they are 0-2 ATS. The one consistent play in Minnesota games is the under, going 3-0 so far. ... Maryland managed a solid 35-17 rebound win against South Florida, covering for the second time in three outings. The over is now 2-0-1 for the Terps heading into their rivalry game at West Virginia next weekend. ... Indiana has an awful defense, outstanding offense and they're a great over play. The Hoosiers edged Western Kentucky 38-35 to barely cover a 2 1/2-point number. The over is also 3-0 ATS heading into next weekend's game at Wake Forest.
The Oklahoma State offense finally came alive with 69 points in their win against Texas-San Antonio. It was their first cover after a pair of subpar performances against Central Michigan and Central Arkansas. ... Texas Tech fired out to a 35-24 win at Arkansas. The Red Raiders are now 2-0-1 ATS in three games, averaging 57.6 PPG heading into their showdown with TCU next weekend. ... Texas slipped up 45-44 in a home game against California. See more on this game in the bad beats section. ... Iowa State fell 30-23 in double-overtime at Toledo, but the under still hit and is 2-0-1 through three games.
Colorado posted a second straight impressive win and cover, this time dropped rival Colorado State in overtime by a 27-24 count. The under still connected despite the extra session, and is now 2-1 through three games for the Buffs. ... After a setback to FCS Portland State, Washington State finally appears to be untracked. They pushed aside Wyoming 31-14, and they're now 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS with the under 2-1. They have two weeks to prepare for a trip to California as they look to avenge a 60-59 setback on the Palouse last season. ... Oregon piled up 61 points in a win against Georgia State, and the 'over' is now 2-0 in two home games for the Ducks this season.
Some things never change. Florida has now won 29 straight games against Kentucky, outlasting the Wildcats 14-9 at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington. After a shootout in their opening game, the under has hit in each of South Carolina's conference games to date.
Mid-Major Report
The MAC had a so-so week, making plenty of headlines for close calls. NIU nearly pulled off a giant shocker but fell short. Central Michigan was tripped up at Syracuse in overtime, and Bowling Green stumbled 44-41 against Memphis at home. Miami-Ohio also nearly dumped Cincinnati, but fell 37-33. The over has cashed in two in a row for the Red Hawks. ... Toledo followed up their win at Arkansas with the 2OT win over Iowa State. For the first time in school history the Rockets have beaten two Power 5 Conference teams in the same season.
Louisiana Tech fell just short in an overtime road loss at Kansas State, 39-33. The Bulldogs have posted atl east 33 points in each of their three games, and the over has hit in each outing. ... Buffalo picked up a 33-15 win at Florida Atlantic, as the Owls are now a dismal 1-2 ATS after a hot start to the season. For the Bulls of the MAC, they're now 3-0 ATS through three games heading into their til against Nevada next week.
It wasn't a good week for the Mountain West, as they went 2-10 SU. That includes an embarrassing home loss for San Diego State against South Alabama, a 17 1/2-point underdog. The Aztecs are 0-3 ATS through three games heading into their road game against Penn State next week. ... San Jose State slipped up 35-21 at Oregon State, and the Spartans are 0-2 SU/ATS in two road games this season. They're on the road Oct. 3 at Auburn and Oct. 10 at UNLV, so remember their struggles when the time comes.
Texas State was involved in one of the highest-scoring games of the season, falling 56-50 at home to Southern Mississippi. The over has cashed in each of Texas State's three games. ... Texas-El Paso outlasted New Mexico State 50-47 in overtime. The Aggies have allowed at least 34 points in each of their three games, going 0-3 ATS while the over has connected in three in a row.
Bad Beats
In the bad beat department, there are all kinds of things wrong with the California-Texas game. For anyone who took a chance on Texas on the moneyline, it was an excruciating game. First off, Cal fired out to a 45-24 lead heading into the fourth quarter. ML bettors likely wrote the game off, but they were given hope when Texas rallied to make it 45-44 with 71 seconds remaining in regulation. However, a missed extra point meant a win for Cal, and it was almost like losing twice if you have the Longhorns on the moneyline. The 20-point fourth quarter was also a bad beat for Cal bettors who laid the five.
Iowa State nearly connected as a touchdown underdog at Toledo, but their kicker missed a medium-range field goal with :00 left in regulation which could have won it. I-State ended up falling in double-overtime. If you were laying seven, the touchdown in double-overtime was bad news since it turned what could have been a win into a push.
Iowa held a 24-17 lead with :52 left in regulation before Pittsburgh struck for a game-tying touchdown to make it 24-24. The game appeared headed for overtime, but Iowa's Marshall Koehn knocked through a 57-yard field goal at :00 to stun the Panthers. Worse yet, the Hawkeyes failed to cover their six-point spread when they allowed the late, game-tying touchdown. Pittsburgh's touchdown with 52 seconds left meant the total would go 'over', too, after the 'under' looked good for most of the evening.