Betting Recap - Week 7
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
College Football Week 7 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 40-18
Against the Spread 22-34-2
Home-Away
Straight Up 34-24
Against the Spread 29-27-2
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 25-33
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Syracuse (+24, ML +1000) vs. Clemson, 27-24
Boston College (+19, ML +650) at Louisville, 45-42
South Alabama (+18, ML +750) at Troy, 19-8
Arizona State (+17.5, ML +700) vs. Washington, 13-7
California (+16.5, ML +550) vs. Washington State, 37-3
Tulsa (+14, ML +425) vs. Houston, 45-17
Florida International (+12.5, ML +400) vs. Tulane, 23-10
Connecticut (+10.5, ML +330) at Temple, 28-24
The largest favorites to cover
UCF (-36) vs. East Carolina, 63-21
Oklahoma State (-26) vs. Baylor, 59-16
Ohio State (-24) at Nebraska, 56-14
South Florida (-24) vs. Cincinnati, 33-3
Mississippi State (-23) vs. Brigham Young, 35-10
Southern Mississippi (-23) vs. Texas-El Paso, 24-0
Iowa State (-22.5) vs. Kansas, 45-0
Western Kentucky (-18) vs. Charlotte, 45-14
Top 25 Notes
The first real topsy-turvy weekend in college football arrived, and four teams in The Associated Press Top 10 suffered setbacks. The upsets started off on Friday night when defending champ Clemson was knocked out by Syracuse in the Carrier Dome by a 27-24 score. In the nightcap on Friday, Washington State said, 'Watch this. Hold my beer.' They went out and laid an egg, 37-3, in smoky California in perhaps the most stunning upset of the week. The fact the Cougars lost wasn't the shocking part, but it's how they were dismantled by 34 points despite the fact, unlike Clemson, they did not lose their quarterback to injury. The upsets kept rolling in on Saturday, as Washington was stifled in the desert by Arizona State, 13-7. It's a loss that might leave the Pac-12 on the outside looking in when playoff time rolls around.
Alabama continues to dissect the SEC, pounding Arkansas by a 41-9 score. While Crimson Tide side bettors suffered the bad beat (see below), the Tide remained perfect after seven games. However, they're just 3-4 ATS while the 'under' has hit in four of their seven games. Defense reigns supreme in Tuscaloosa, as they have allowed just 10.2 PPG.
Ohio State annihilated Nebraska in Lincoln, as the Buckeyes continue to roll on offense. Since their loss to Oklahoma back on Sept. 9, the Buckeyes have won five in a row. They have covered the past three, while posting 54 or more points in each of their past four outings. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 over the past four contests, too. They'll have a bye and two weeks of preparation before taking the field next against Penn State at home.
San Diego State was another upset victim, as they fell to Boise State by a 31-14 count at home. The Aztecs escaped the upset bug in their most recent home game Sept. 30, but they couldn't avoid it on Saturday. They're now just 1-3 ATS in their four home games while the 'under' is 2-1-1 at Qualcomm Stadium.
Stanford was dumped by SDSU earlier in the season, but they have been on fire lately thanks to the superb running of Bryce Love. The Cardinal powered past Oregon 49-7 for a fourth consecutive victory.The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for Stanford, too. However, they have yet to cover in consecutive games this season, something they'll be looking to change on Thursday, Oct. 26, next time out at Oregon State.
Big Five Conference Report
Duke's freefall continued on Saturday, as they dropped a home game to Florida State, 17-10. The Blue Devils opened 4-0 SU/ATS, but they're now 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS over their past three contests. Total bettors are enjoying their defensive efforts, however, as the 'under' has hit in five in a row for Duke. ... After all of the craziness this past week, North Carolina State actually finds themselves at least in the conversation as playoff dark horses. The Wolfpack had no hangover in Pittsburgh, winning 35-17 as 11-point favorites. The Wolfpack have now covered consecutie games for the first time this season, and the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 over their past four.
Purdue didn't win at Wisconsin on Saturday, but they covered again. They're 3-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog, and 5-1 ATS overall this season. ... Maryland lost for the second straight week, falling to Northwestern 37-21, The Terrapins have been a fan of side bettors at the window, as the 'over' is 5-1 in six outings this season, including 3-0 over the past three. ... For the second straight weekend, Minnesota was in the middle of a bad beat. See below.
Texas earned the cover in the Red River Rivalry Game against Oklahoma, falling 29-24. The Longhorns had a costly mistake by a member of their secondary, allowing a Sooners receiver to get wide open for the go-ahead touchdown with 6:53 to go. The Longhorns had a chance to move it down the field, but stalled near midfield. With one final play, there were a series of laterals and Texas side bettors closed their eyes, hoping there wasn't a repeat of the disastrous bad beat we saw two weeks ago on Monday night in the NFL. It worked out. ... Oklahoma State spanked Baylor 59-16 to pick up their fifth win in six tries. The Cowboys earned their first cover in three weeks after opening the season 3-0 ATS.
Colorado posted a 36-33 win at Oregon State, although the Buffaloes slipped to 1-5 ATS over their past six outings. The Beavers saw their first 'over' since Sept. 16 after hitting the over in each of their first four outings. ... Arizona rolled UCLA by a 47-30 count, as the Bruins failed to cover for the fourth consecutive outing. Defense has been a huge part of the Bruins' downfall,as they have allowed 44 or more points in four of their six games this season. As such, the 'over' is 5-1 in six tries.
Florida lost for the second consecutive weekend, as Texas A&M picked up a win in 'The Swamp', 19-17. A&M has certainly picked up the pace lately, winning five of their past six games and giving Bama a test last week. A&M is 4-0-1 ATS against the number, and a big part of their success lately is due to improvement on defense. They have allowed 20.3 PPG over the past three, and the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 during the span. ... Georgia wasn't about to let the upset bug bite them. While Missouri had UGA tied up 14-14 after the first quarter, the Bulldogs found their run game and kicked it into high gear, outscoring the Tigers 39-14 over the final three quarters. After the 'under' hit in Georgia's first five, the over is 2-0 across the past two.
Mid-Major Report
Connecticut pulled off a straight-up win as double-digit underdogs, winning at Temple 28-24. It wasn't terribly shocking the the Huskies won, but it did mark their first cover in six outings this season. ... Memphis handed Navy its first setback of the season, 30-27, although the Middies did earn the cover (see bad beats). While it was the fifth win in six tries for the Tigers, they're still just 2-3-1 ATS overall this season. ... UCF and South Florida kept their dreams of being one of the Group of 5 teams playing in a New Year's Day bowl game, benefiting from San Diego State's setback. Both covered, too, as the Golden Knights are now 5-0 ATS on the season, with the Bulls covering their fourth straight. These teams meet Nov. 24.
Florida International cooled off Tulane, 23-10, winning as big underdogs. The Golden Panthers are a surprising 4-2 SU under Butch Davis, although it was just their second cover of the season, and first at home. ... The struggles continue for Texas-El Paso, as they fell to 0-7 SU. The Miners were shut out at Southern Mississippi, falling to 2-5 ATS against the number, too.
Kent State stunned Miami-Ohio as 8 1/2-point underdogs, winning 17-14. After opening 0-3 ATS, the Golden Flashes are now 3-1 ATS over their past four. Total bettors love KSU, too, as the total has gone under in each of their past five outings. ... Toledo rolled Central Michigan by a 30-10 count. The Rockets have covered eight in a row in this series, and they're 8-3-1 ATS in their past 12 trips to Mount Pleasant. The favorite is also 17-5-1 ATS in the past 23 in the series, so jot that down and file away for next season.
Hawaii took care of visiting San Jose State, 37-26. However, while the Warriors are now 3-4 SU, they have failed to cover in each of their past five outings. This game also wasn't quite a bad beat, but if you were holding an 'under' ticket you're not happy. There were 41 total points on the board with 9:01 to go until Hawaii struck for a TD. With a total of 58 1/2 points, under bettors were still all right. San Jose State scored on a 96-yard return on the ensuing kickoff, slicing the lead to 30-26. An 80-yard return on the missed extra point made it 30-26 with 8:44 to go. Of course it was going over now, and Hawaii punched in their last score with 6:09 to go to dash the hopes of 'under' bettors.
In Sun Belt, Fun Belt action, the 'over' cashed again for Louisiana-Monroe. They were dumped at home by Georgia State, 47-37. That's now four straight overs for the Warhawks, asthey have scored 37 or more points in each of their past four while allowing 27 or more points in all six of their outings this season. ...
Bad Beats
There's just something about Minnesota, as they have been involved in bad beats in each of the past two weekend. Michigan State was laying four, and they had a 30-13 lead with 10:15 left in regulation. Minnesota cut the lead to 30-20 with 5:20 to play, but side bettors backing Sparty were still OK. Well, that is until Minnesota struck again with 1:06 to play, slicing the lead to 30-27 while earning the backdoor cover.
To bettors, there are no 'garbage time' touchdowns. Alabama held a 41-3 lead into the fourth quarter, but Arkansas struck for its first touchdown of the game with 3:03 to go, spoiling a winning ticket for Tide side bettors.
In Sun Belt action, New Mexico State scored the cover on a fade to a 6'6 receiver in the left-corner of the end zone at Georgia Southern to keep the Eagles down. The touchdown came at 2:05 left in regulation, changing the result of the total (59), as well as the side. Ouch.
If you were holding a moneyline ticket with Utah at Southern California, at first you were excited. The Utes scored with :42 left in regulation to close USC's lead to 28-27, extra point pending. They elected to go for two, which nearly worked out, but Troy Williams came up just short of the goal line. While Utes side bettors (+13 1/2) were never in any danger of not covering, moneyline bettors were sickened wondering what might have been.