College Football Bowl Betting News and Notes For Thursday, December 28, 2017

Thursday's Early Bowl Tips
December 26, 2017
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

**Virginia at Navy**

Military Bowl History

-- The Virginia Cavaliers (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference meets the Navy Midshipmen (6-6 straight up, 5-5-2 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference in Annapolis, Md. for the Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman. It is a home game for the Middies, but can they pull out of their late-season slump to make playing in front of their home fans mean something?

-- The Midshipmen started out like a ball of fire, running through their schedule with a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS mark through the first five games, including a win at Florida Atlantic, the Boca Raton Bowl winner. But, that was one of only two wins against bowl teams this season, and they ended up 2-6 SU/3-3-2 ATS against the eight bowl teams on their schedule. Their slide started in mid-October in a narrow 30-27 loss at Memphis, and they never really pulled out of the nosedive. They lost at home as a 10-point underdog to UCF, 31-21, and they fell at Temple on Nov. 2 by a 34-26 count despite entering as a 6 1/2-point favorite. The Middies posted a spirited 43-40 win over SMU on Nov. 11, and they covered the following week at Notre Dame in a 24-17 loss as 21-point 'dogs. However, losses at Houston and against Army in their annual rivalry game sent them to three straight losses and two non-covers in a row to close out the regular season.

-- The Middies continued to run the football better than almost any team in the country. They ranked 42nd in the country in total yards (426.8 yards), while ranking second in the nation with 343.0 yards per game. Of course, they rarely passed, totaling just 83.8 yards per game to check in 129th, but no one really expects the vertical game from Navy. The Midshipmen ranked 60th in the country with 28.9 points per game. Struggles in the kicking game did not help this team, as they were 113th in FBS with just 58.8 percent of field goals converted.

-- On the defensive side of the ball, the Middies were, well...rather middling. They ranked 59th with 386.6 total yards per game allowed, 60th in passing yards allowed (221.7) and 64th against the rush (164.9). Their points allowed (27.9) was good for 74th in the land, or lower echelon, especially for a bowl participant.

-- If they're going to pass, it's QB Zach Abey at least attempting to get it done. He completed just 43.7 percent of his attempts (31-of-71) for 805 yards, seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. That looks like the Mouse Davis run-and-shoot compared to fellow military institution Army, but it really is not much in terms of today's college football. But they're still success in the triple-option, and Abey led the way with 1,325 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per tote. Malcolm Perry racked up 1,068 yards on the ground with nine touchdowns, and he gathered 8.8 yards per attempt to lead the charge. Chris High (125-520-2) and Anthony Gargiulo (71-383-3) are also very capable when they get their mitts on the pigskin.

-- Virginia wasn't terribly prolific on offense, but they have the pass game to get back into the game should they fall behind. They ranked just 100th in total offense (356.2 yards per game), but they totaled 257.3 yards per game through the air to rank 43rd in passing offense. Still, their points scored (23.8) ranked just 101st. In defense, UVA ranked 36th in the nation with just 358.7 yards per game allowed, but they were hard on the pass (16th in the country) while struggling at times against the run (82nd in the nation, 179.1 yards per game). A struggling run defense is not what you want when facing down against the triple-option of Navy, especially on their home turf with weeks of preparation.

-- The Cavaliers started out 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS, including a surprising road win at Boise State back on Sept. 22 by a 42-23 score. Things started going sideways for the Hoos after a 41-10 beatdown from Boston College at Scott Stadium on Oct. 21, and that touched off a 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS slide to finish the regular season. Only a win against Georgia Tech on Nov. 4 saved bowl eligibility. The Cavs wrapped up their season with an uninspiring 10-0 loss against Virginia Tech on Thanksgiving weekend.

-- QB Kurt Benkert completed 59.6 percent of his pass attempts to finish with 3,062 yards, 25 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, but Navy will not have to worry about the opponent's QB running. That's the job of RB Jordan Ellis, who led the team with 799 yards and six touchdowns, but just 3.9 yards per attempt. Olamide Zaccheaus provided relief with 6.7 yards per attempt in limited work. He was the team's leading receiver with 80 grabs for 833 yards and five touchdowns, which is rather unique seeing a running back leading a team in receptions and receiving yardage. When going vertical, WRs Andre Levrone (31-662-7) and Doni Dowling (48-632-5) are the best of the lot. TE Evan Butts (30-256-2) is also a good short-yardage option when looking to move the sticks.

-- The Midshipmen are a perfect 4-0 ATS over their past four bowl games, and they're 7-2-1 ATS across their past 10 following a non-cover. They certainly had that in their straight-up loss to Army last time out. The Middies are also an impressive 16-6-1 ATS in their past 23 at home, and, for what it's worth, they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven appearances on a Thursday.

-- For the Hoos, the 'under' is 13-6-1 across their past 20 games on the road, but the 'over' has connected in four straight bowl appearances and five of their past seven on field turf.

-- For the Middlies, the 'under'is 6-2 in their past eight non-conference tilts, and five of the past seven overall. The 'over' has hit in 11 of their past 15 home games, however, while going 12-5-1 in their past 18 tries against ACC foes.

-- Virginia is making its first bowl appearance since the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on Dec. 31, 2011, and they haven't won a bowl game since taking care of Minnesota in the Music City Bowl back on Dec. 30, 2005.

-- Navy is making a bowl appearance for the sixth consecutive season, losing 48-45 in the Armed Forces Bowl last Dec. 23. The last time they played in the Military Bowl at home, they treated Pittsburgh rather rudely with a 44-28 win on Dec. 28, 2015. The Middies are 3-1 SU over their past four bowl appearances, and they 1-2 SU in three bowl games vs. ACC opponents.

-- These teams last met Sept. 10, 1994, with Virginia spanking Navy by a 47-3 score.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State**

Camping World Bowl History

-- In the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fla. it will be the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) of the ACC facing off against the Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference.

-- Virginia Tech fire out of the box with a 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS start through the first eight outings, with just one loss to Clemson by a 31-17 score on Sept. 30 at home. Things went south in Miami, falling 28-10 on Nov. 4, and they followed that up with a 28-22 setback at Georgia Tech, a non-bowl team. The Hokies had a three-game non-cover streak going into the regular season finale against rival Virginia, but they posted a 10-0 win as a touchdown favorite in Charlottesville to end on a high note.

-- The Hokies were balanced, but marginal across the board on offense. They ranked 60th in the nation in total yards (404.1), 61st in passing yards (236.9), 61st in rushing yards (167.2) and 63rd in scoring offense (28.8 PPG). They were able to grind out nine victories because of their defense. Va. Tech ranked 11th in total yards allowed (305.2), 24th agaisnt the pass (186.4) and 15th against the run (118.8). The Hokies were fifth in the nation in points allowed, too, giving up just 13.5 points per game, and somehow they held opponents to just 41.7 percent on field goal tries, ranking No. 1 in the land.

-- QB Josh Jackson showed some glimpses of brilliance, and he is a dual-threat option for the Hokies. He completed 60.3 percent of his attempts for 2,743 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions while running for 274 yards and four scores, which led the team. RBs Travon McMillian (104-439-2) and Deshawn McClease (90-406-3) were very effective as a one-two early punch, while Coleman Fox averaged 5.7 yards per game in a reserve role. WR Cam Phillips posted 71 receptions for 964 yards and seven touchdowns to lead the way, while WR Sean Savoy is a nice secondary option (39-454-4).

-- Oklahoma State opened with a 3-0 SU start with at least 44 points per game, while also going 3-0 ATS. Expectations were sky high, and there were even murmurs this could be a team to challenge for a playoff spot, QB Mason Rudolph could be a Heisman Trophy candidate, etc. Well, a 44-31 loss at home against Texas Christian changed all of that talk, although it also spurred them on to four straight wins, including a thrilling 13-10 overtime win in Texas, and a 50-39 road win at West Virginia on Oct. 28. That had the Cowboys riding high into their Bedlam rivalry game on Nov. 4. Playoff talk was back on, Heisman talk was back on...and then, they lost 62-52 to the rival Oklahoma Sooners. The Cowboys still had a successful season with nine victories, and a 10-win season will help with recruits in a state which does house the current Heisman winner and one of the four playoff teams.

-- The Cowboys ranked No. 2 in the country in total yards per game (578.9), while leading the nation in passing yards per game (392.3). They were adequate in rushing yards, going for 186.6 yards per outing to rank 42nd, which going for 46.2 points per game to check in second in the country. Defense is an issue, ranking 75th in yards allowed (400.2), while going a dismal 119th in the country with 268.5 yards per game allowed. They were able to shut down the run, but passing is the strong suit for the Hokies.

-- Rudolph put up video game-like numbers, completing 65.0 percent of his pass attempts for 4,553 yards, 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Cowboys had two 1,000-yard receivers with WRs James Washington (69-1,423-12) and Marcell Ateman (54-1,049-8) combining for 20 receiving scores. Don't sleep on WRs Jalen McCleskey (49-633-5) and Dillon Stoner (40-541-5), either. The Cowboys like to use plenty of four- and five-receiver sets to spread the field and make things a nightmare for opposing pass defenses. RB Justice Hill also gouged opposing defenses for 1,347 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, while Rudolph ran it in for 10 more scores. This team can score early and often.

-- Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS over the past seven non-confernce games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games in the month of December. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a straight-up win, too. The 'under' is 4-1 in their past five overall, while going 6-0 in their past six against teams with a winning overall record, and 3-1-1 in the past five agaisnt non-conference teams.

-- For Oklahoma State, they're 5-0 ATS in their past five against non-conference teams, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven neutral-site tilts. OK State is 1-4 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record, however. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five overall for the Cowboys, while going 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning overall mark. The over is also 20-7 in their past 27 games on a fieldturf surface.

-- Va. Tech rolls in on a three-game bowl winning streak, topping Arkansas by a 35-24 count in last season's Belk Bowl in Charlotte. The Hokies have scored at least 33 points in each of the past three bowl wins, too. The last time they faced a Big 12 squad in a bowl game, they were on the short end of a 24-21 score against Kansas in the 2008 Orange Bowl.

-- Oklahoma State clubbed Colorado in the Alamo Bowl last season by a 38-8 score, and they are an impressive 5-2 over the past seven bowl appearances. This is actually their first meeting with an ACC member in a bowl game.

-- This will be the first-ever meeting between these two institutions.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Thursday's Bowl Action
December 27, 2017
By BetOnline.ag

Is Mason Rudolph First Round Worthy?

If you’ve read my stuff this year, you know I’m more of an NFL guy than a college man. Part of it is that I just prefer the consistency of the NFL brand, but the bowl season offers a glimpse in to the potential future of the professional league and it’s impossible for me not to have a long view on these types of things as a fan. That’s why I love it when the schedule makers provide us with perfect matchups for potential first rounders that will face defences that are built to stop them.

The Thursday slate of NCAAF bowl games features two of the best players in the country statistically, and each are receiving terrific matchups to shine. Mason Rudolph goes up against one of the best defences in the country to improve his draft stock, while Bryce Love will try to run rampant against a stingy TCU front-seven. In the other night game for Thursday, we get to see if Michigan State can really build some goodwill heading in to a 2018 season as a young team. Three great games and all are worth some hefty investing.

Odds per BetOnline.ag

CAMPING WORLD BOWL (5:15 p.m. ET)
#22 Virginia Tech Hokies +4.5 over #19 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Perhaps nobody has more riding on Thursday’s outcomes than quarterback Mason Rudolph. At one point in October, he was the leading Heisman candidate but fell off the map when he was severely overshadowed in a heads up matchup with Baker Mayfield and didn’t play all that well. He led the country by throwing for a staggering 4,553 yards and led the highest ranked passing offence in the country but is also coming from a system that is absolutely viscious at putting up big numbers.

That’s generally what people expect from the Big 12 overall. This conference has produced elite play makers at the college level like Robert Griffin III, Vince Young, Brandon Weeden, Sam Bradford and Ryan Tannehill. That is not a filtered list. All of those guys are not only some of the most prolific in recent conference history, they are also all first round picks that have all had roughly similar trajectories in the NFL. In case you were wondering, “rough” is the operative word there.

So where does Mason Rudolph fit in to all of this? It’s very hard to say that he’s the trend buster. Rudolph receives a terrific matchup to prove naysayers wrong in a quarterback heavy draft that’s already being argued about with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen in the mix. The Cowboys quarterback has a lot of work to do to leapfrog any of those guys, but gets a chance against a Virginia Tech defence that ranks well against the pass and allowed just 305.2 yards total against per game (11th).

The truth about Rudolph is that he may just be a big time Big 12 quarterback. His footwork is terrible, and he can get away with that at the college level, but not at the pro level. At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds he is a prototypical unit of a human being at the position, and he’s a pleasure to watch when he gets fired up. Who doesn’t love touchdowns? Rudolph has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season except for one against Texas at mid-season.

Make no mistake about what this matchup is. The Hokies are out to ruin Rudolph’s NFL draft stock and win this game with a defensive iron fist that they have wielded well all season. Their biggest loss of the season came when they were defeated 17-31 by Clemson at home as +7.0 point dogs. Truthfully, the Hokies haven’t played that well against ranked opponents but they are also 6-1 ATS when playing out of conference and are also a blissful 8-3 ATS when playing December.

There are a lot of reasons to lean away from Oklahoma state here, but the biggest is that they don’t generally perform well against equal competition. The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS when playing winning teams, which is a trend I count on more than any other in college football when grading favorites. Personally speaking, I’m also just not a fan of the Big 12 teams running head first in to defensively minded teams from conferences that play a more rugged brand of football.

Virginia Tech is also not allergic to scoring points. They love winning fist fights, which has been their penchant for much of the season. I’m counting on quarterback Josh Jackson having a bounce back game here after showing some early promise.

As for Rudolph, he deserves a storybook ending to his incredible college career. He also deserves a shot at the NFL to at least rid Oklahoma State of the stink that Brandon Weeden’s career created in terms of quarterback prospects. I just don’t think he’s as next level as others might, and I’m willing to bet that the Hokies expose the offensively minded Cowboys in a big way.

VALERO ALAMO BOWL (9:00 p.m. ET)
Stanford Cardinal +2.5 over #15 TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs are tight favorites in a game against two college football darlings and the public is streaming them pretty heavily. TCU is getting nearly two-thirds of the love here. They’re the better team. That all makes sense.

But TCU is not the better time by a landslide margin. In fact, TCU is just 2-6 ATS when playing it he postseason, 2-9 ATS when playing at neutral locations and 2-5 ATS when playing out of conference. These are all bad things. By comparison, Stanford is 6-2 ATS when playing in bowl games and are also 4-0 ATS when playing against the Big 12 specifically. It’s a titular matchup for Stanford in general.

The player to watch here is undoubtedly Bryce Love, the running back for Stanford who was a Heisman finalist who rushed for 1,973 yards and 17 touchdowns while electrifying the nation. It’s a great matchup for Love to show off his dynamic play making, especially given that TCU is known for its big front-seven that ranked 4th in rush defence.

Love is elite enough to be the difference in this game and Stanford has enough weapons to use him as a decoy if need be. Unlike McAffery, who was an established superstar in the making, Love needs a bit of a stock push for NFL draft purposes and I’m gambling that he makes the most of this incredible opportunity against a highly regarded defensive front.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION HOLIDAY BOWL (9:00 p.m. ET)
#16 Michigan State Spartans -1.5 over #18 Washington State Cougars
This may not be a matchup with much NFL draft impact, but it’s a pivotal momentum generator for the Michigan State Spartans. Quarterback Brian Lewarke is a sophomore stud in the making and while he hasn’t had many “big” games, he’s been steady and leaned on a balanced offence around him. Where Michigan State thrives is defensively, which is what you’d expect from this program overall. They’re also terrific on special teams.

Both schools are brutal when playing each other’s conferences, reflecting 1-5 ATS records, but this matchup is more about the ability to play in a big time game than anything else. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS when playing in bowl games. The Cougars are…I don’t know what they are to be honest. They’re not even a real up and coming program.

Where Washington State made a big impact was in the passing game. Quarterback Luke Falk was relatively magnificent for the most part, leading the 2nd ranked passing offence in the country. But as the season wore on, Falk was terrible and threw 11 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. That’s bad news against a team that ranks 9th overall in total defence.

I just don’t believe that the Cougars have the guts to survive a blood bath, and Michigan State thrives in those moments. Against the top tier, the Spartans faultered as a young team. But with Lewerke emerging as a promising pivot in the last few weeks, the Spartans are the team to bank on with a tight line.

hursday's Late Bowl Tips
December 27, 2017
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

**Stanford vs. Texas Christian**

-- Stanford and TCU are set to collide Thursday night at the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, Texas from the Alamodome. As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had TCU installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 49. The Cardinal was +130 on the money line (risk $100 to win $130). For first-half wagers, the Horned Frogs were favored by 1.5 points with the total at 24 or 24.5.

-- Stanford (9-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) won the Pac-12 North thanks to a three-game winning streak to close the regular season. Most important, the Cardinal beat Washington 30-22 in Palo Alto to give it the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Huskies. David Shaw’s team won eight of its last nine regular-season games, with the only loss coming at Washington State (24-21) when star RB Bryce Love was playing with an injured ankle.

-- Stanford lost a 31-28 decision to Southern Cal at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA., in the Pac-12 Championship Game. However, the Cardinal hooked up its backers (my hand is raised!) as a four-point underdog thanks to a spectacular touchdown catch in traffic by redshirt freshman tight end Kaden Smith. Smith’s roommate K.J. Costello found him on a pair of TD connections against the Trojans, both of which were highlight-reel material. Trailing by three early in the fourth quarter and facing a fourth-and-goal play at USC’s one yard line, Shaw elected to go for it rather than take the short field goal for the tie. This move backfired when USC’s defense produced the stop. Smith’s 28-yard TD grab from Costello with 2:09 remaining secured the backdoor cover. Love ran 22 times for 125 yards and one TD, but he had to leave the game several times with his ankle bothering him.

-- Love is listed as ‘probable’ due to the lingering ankle injury, but he’s had nearly a month to recover and is expected to be at full speed. Love had a sensational season despite missing one game and parts of others due to the injured ankle. The junior RB has rushed for 1,973 rushing yards and 17 TDs, averaging an eye-popping 8.3 yards per carry.

-- Smith had four receptions for 80 yards and two TDs vs. USC. Despite not getting many chances in September and early October, Smith still garnered first-team All Pac-12 honors thanks to his stellar play in November. The Marcus High School product (Dallas area) was the nation’s No. 2 ranked TE in the 2016 class, but he had to redshirt while recovering from a knee injury sustained in high school. Smith had 10 catches for 188 yards and four TDs in his team’s last three contests. Look for Costello to look for his roomie early and often vs. TCU.

-- Costello became the full-time starter in October. He has completed 59.8 percent of his throws for 1,386 yards with an 11/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Costello, another RS freshman, has three rushing scores. He has six TD passes without a pick in the last two games.

-- Stanford owns a 3-1 spread record with a pair of outright victories in four games as an underdog this year.

-- Stanford is ranked 77th in the nation in total offense and 73rd in the country in total defense. Nevertheless, the Cardinal is ranked 39th in the nation in scoring with a 32.0 points-per-game average. They’re also solid in scoring defense, limiting opponents to only 21.5 PPG, which ranks 29th in the country.

-- Stanford senior DE Eric Cotton is ‘questionable’ with a foot injury. Cotton has recorded 30 tackles, three sacks, 1.5 tackles for loss and two QB hurries. The Cardinal’s stop unit is led by senior DT Harrison Phillips, who has 99 tackles, seven sacks, 9.5 TFL’s, six QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one blocked kick.

-- Stanford has won three straight bowl games while going 2-0-1 ATS. The Cardinal pushed past North Carolina at last year’s Sun Bowl, winning a 25-23 decision as a two-point ‘chalk.’

-- TCU (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) has posted a 4-1 record both SU and ATS in five games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

-- TCU started the season 7-0 before dropping a 14-7 decision at Iowa State. The Horned Frogs recovered to beat Texas 24-7 as 7.5-point home favorites the following week, but they went down 38-20 at Oklahoma on Nov. 11. With back-to-back victories at Texas Tech (27-3) and vs. Baylor (45-22), Gary Patterson’s team secured a spot in the inaugural Big 12 Championship Game for a rematch with OU.

-- The results were no different at AT&T Stadium in Arlington than they were in Norman. OU captured a 41-17 triumph over TCU to win the Big 12 title as a 7.5-point favorite. In the losing effort, TCU quarterback Kenny Hill connected on 27-of-37 passes for 234 yards and two TDs with one interception. Hill also rushed for a team-best 51 yards on 13 attempts. John Diarse had five receptions for 66 yards and one TD. Kyle Hicks had five catches for 58 yards, in addition to rushing for 32 yards on eight carries.

-- TCU faced nine teams that made the postseason, going 6-3 SU with impressive road victories at Oklahoma State (44-31), at Kansas State (26-6) and at Texas Tech (27-3).

-- Hill has completed 67.2 percent of his throws for 2,838 yards with a 21/6 TD-INT ratio. The transfer from Texas A&M has also rushed for 266 yards and four TDs. His favorite target is Diarse, who has 33 receptions for 543 yards and three TDs. Jalen Reagor has 28 catches for 407 yards and four TDs, while Desmon White has 38 grabs for 390 yards and four TDs.

-- TCU’s leading rusher is Darius Anderson, who is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. Stanford due to a foot injury that kept him out of his team’s past three contests. Anderson has run for 768 yards and eight TDs with a 6.0 YPC average. Hicks (4.5 YPC) has run for 597 yards and four scores, while Sewo Olonilua has 272 rushing yards and seven TDs with a 4.6 YPC average. Hicks has 22 catches for 266 yards and one TD.

-- TCU is ranked 18th in the nation in total defense, fourth versus the run and 11th in scoring ‘D’ (17.6 PPG). The Frogs struggled defending the pass, however, ranking No. 72 in the country (228.7 YPG).

-- TCU’s stop unit is led by senior LB Travin Howard, who has registered a team-best 98 tackles, one sacks, six TFL’s, one interception for a 19-yard TD return, five PBU and one QB hurry. Senior DE Mat Boesen has produced 57 tackles, 11.5 sacks, three TFL’s, five QB hurries and three forced fumbles.

-- TCU is bowling for a fourth straight season. The Frogs pulled the greatest comeback in postseason history in their 47-41 triple-overtime win over Oregon at the 2015 Alamo Bowl, so they’re returning to friendly confines here. However, they lost a 31-23 decision to Georgia at last year’s Liberty Bowl.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-5 overall for Stanford, going 7-2 in its last nine games. The Cardinal has seen its games average combined scores of 53.5 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 10-3 overall for TCU, 8-1 in its last nine outings. The Frogs have seen their games average combined scores of 50.8 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Washington State vs. Michigan State**

-- The Pac-12 and Big Ten will collide Thursday night at the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. Washington State will bid farewell to its all-time leading passer in Luke Falk when it takes on Michigan State in Southern California. As of Wednesday night, most spots had the Spartans favored by two points with a total of 47. The Cougars were available for a +105 return if they win outright.

-- This line has been on the move in the last 48 hours. Back in early December, Washington State opened as a three-point favorite. The number moved to 2.5 one week later and was down to two by Dec. 18. The line shifted to 1.5 and then one over the next 5-6 days before hitting pick ‘em on Christmas Day. Then on Dec. 26, MSU became the one-point ‘chalk’ and was 1.5 or two by Wednesday. The total has slowly slithered up to 47 from 45.5.

-- Washington State (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) is seeking its first 10-win season during Mike Leach’s six-year tenure and just the fifth in the program’s history. Leach’s club had a chance to make the Pac-12 Championship Game for the first time, but it lost 41-14 at Washington in the Apple Cup regular-season finale. Falk threw for 369 yards and one TD, but he had an uncharacteristic three interceptions. The Cougars lost the turnover battle by a 4-0 margin.

-- Washington State went 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in seven games against foes who made the postseason. The Cougars posted a 2-1 record both SU and ATS in three games as underdogs.

-- WSU is bowling for a fourth time in Leach’s six years at the helm. The Cougars are 1-2 both SU and ATS in those three previous bowl games, including last year’s 17-12 loss to Minnesota at the Holiday Bowl as 10-point favorites.

-- Falk won’t have his two best WRs vs. MSU because junior Tavares Martin and sophomore Isaiah Johnson-Mack were both dismissed from the program earlier this month. Martin had 70 receptions for 831 yards and nine TDs during the regular season, while Johnson-Mack had 60 catches for 555 yards and five TDs.

-- Falk has connected on 66.9 percent of his passes for 3,593 yards with a 30/13 TD-INT ratio. For his career, Falk has thrown for 14,481 yards with a 119/39 TD-INT ratio.

-- The loss of Martin and Johnson-Mack certainly hurts, but it isn’t a deal breaker for potential Washington State backers. The Cougars are deep at the WR position with six other players (not counting Martin or Johnson-Mack) making at least 31 catches. Renard Bell has 36 receptions for 525 yards and three TDs, while Kyle Sweet has 50 grabs for 481 yards and two TDs.

-- Senior RB Jamal Morrow has a team-best 522 rushing yards and four TDs with a 6.1 YPC average. He also has 56 receptions for 479 yards and five TDs. James Williams has run for 381 yards and one TD with a 4.3 YPC average. Williams can also catch it out of the backfield, making 61 grabs for 417 yards and three TDs.

-- Washington State has its best defense under Leach. This unit is ranked 13th in the nation in total defense and eighth versus the pass. However, this unit could be without a pair of LBs in Nate DeRider and Derek Moore. DeRider, who is listed as ‘questionable,’ had 21 tackles and 1.5 TFL’s in the team’s first six games. Moore, who is also a question mark, had 11 tackles, 0.5 sacks, two QB hurries and 2.5 TFL’s in WSU’s first seven outings. Also, junior DE Hercule Mata’afa must sit out the first half after being flagged for targeting in the second half of the loss at UW. Mata’afa has 43 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 12 TFL’s, four QB hurries and two forced fumbles.

-- Michigan State has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ five times, posting a 4-1 SU record and a 3-2 ATS mark. The Spartans have faced six opponents who made the postseason, going 3-3 both SU and ATS in those six outings.

-- Mark Dantonio did a remarkable job in 2017, leading his team to a six-win improvement after limping to a 3-9 record last season. Making it more impressive is the fact that the Spartans returned only eight of 22 starters. They lost at home vs. Notre Dame and on the road at Northwestern (in triple overtime) and at Ohio State. MSU’s best wins came at home over Iowa and Penn State, and it also won 14-10 at Michigan in a driving rainstorm.

-- Michigan State is led by its defense that’s ranked ninth in the country in total ‘D,’ fifth at defending the run, 31st in pass defense and 25th in scoring ‘D’ (20.2 PPG). This unit’s leading tackler is sophomore LB Joe Bachie, who has 94 tackles, three interceptions, 3.5 sacks, five TFL’s, two forced fumbles and two PBU.

-- MSU sophomore QB Brian Lewerke had a solid campaign, completing 58.8 percent of his throws for 2,580 yards with a 17/6 TD-INT ratio. He can also run it, producing 489 rushing yards and five TDs. L.J. Scott is the primary ball carrier, rushing for 785 yards and six TDs with a 4.3 YPC average.

-- Lewerke’s favorite target is Felton Davis III, who has 51 receptions for 658 yards and eight TDs. Darrell Stewart Jr. has 48 catches for 486 yards and two TDs, while Cody White has 32 grabs for 449 yards and two TDs.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Cougars, but the ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games and three of their last four. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 55.8 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Spartans, but the ‘over’ is 3-2 in their last five outings. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 43.3 PPG.