Ticket City Bowl Betting Preview
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
Erin Rynning's Betting Take: The Nittany Lions spent much of the season grinding out ugly wins. Pretty remarkable that they actually controlled their own destiny heading into the season finale against Wisconsin with a shot at the inaugural Big Ten title game. But PSU eventually ran out of gas and was embarrassed 42-7. To make matters worse the program felt slighted after the more marquee bowls passed them over for Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa. To make matters worse, on again/off again quarterback Matt McGloin was hurt in a locker room fight with wide receiver Curtis Drake. McGloin is extremely doubtful for this game, which means the enigmatic at best Rob Bolden is expected to start. All of this and we haven’t even mentioned the unfortunate situation the program is dealing with in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky/Joe Paterno fallout. Interim head coach Tom Bradley will lead the way, but every coach on this staff is wondering what tomorrow will bring. Of course Houston might be the most dispirited bowl team in the land. The Cougars were on their way to a BCS Bowl game with a multi-million dollar payout in waiting, but all dreams were lost when they were demolished on their home field in the Conference-USA title game. The players would think to be hurt by the departure of their fiery former leader as well as Kevin Sumlin has moved on to Texas A&M. Former assistant head coach Tony Levine will take over the reigns as he was named their new head man. There are positives around for both programs. The Penn State running game looks to control the ball with their outstanding back Silas Redd. PSU’s front will look to pressure the quick hitting Houston offense behind Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Devon Still. You can’t talk about the Cougars without mentioning quarterback Case Kennum and everything he was able to do for the program, including becoming the NCAA all-time passing leader. On the field it’s hard to get out of one’s mind the way Southern Miss controlled the line of scrimmage against the Cougars. USM rushed for 207 yards and 5.3 yards per carry, while the Cougars rushed for 55 and 1.8 yards per carry. Being sturdier along the lines and as a touchdown underdog, we’ll lean towards Penn State.
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Gator Bowl Betting Preview
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
Andrew Lange's Betting Take: A lot more non-football related talk surrounding these two storied but currently mediocre football programs. According to reports, Urban Meyer has kept his distance during Ohio State's preparation – though he officially takes over the program on Tuesday. For Florida, it lost offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (Kansas HC), which in the eyes of some was a good thing.
As for the play on the field, both defenses were above average with the Gators 9th nationally (299.6 ypg allowed) and Ohio State 24th (328.6 ypg allowed). UF's numbers start to look even better when we eliminate games against LSU and Alabama (277.6 ypg allowed, 16.8 ppg allowed). The Buckeyes were not as stout but very consistent – allowed between 285-363 yards in nine of their 12 games. Like Florida, their struggles came against more dynamic spread offenses with Nebraska and Michigan both topping 420 yards.
Offensively is where we see a dramatic drop-off from previous editions. Quarterback John Brantley gives the Gators its best shot at throwing the football but he was unable to stay healthy and since missing two games mid-season, hasn't done much of anything save for a four touchdown performance against Furman. Brantley's three interception debacle (and a concussion) in the season finale against Florida State gives me little confidence he can pass the Gators to victory. Florida's only hope is to create situations in which its playmakers are given the ball "in space" – bubble screens, trick plays, etc. But for how bad UF was with the ball, Ohio State was even worse. Freshman quarterback Braxton Miller didn't stand a chance in long passing situations leaving the Buckeyes little choice but the dink-and-dunk and ask Miller to move the chains with his feet – which to his credit he did with 100-yard rushing performances in three of his last four games. The problem though is Florida still has SEC speed, and plenty of it. With little threat to stretch the field with his arm, the Gators can thrive with a keep-everything-in-front-of-you mentality.
The one thing I've learned from watching bowl games over the years is that with a month to prepare, teams that struggled to move the football during the regular season will likely attempt to pull out all of the stops. I expect to see more than a few trick plays in order to create some offensive momentum. Without it, asking either team to go 80-yards and come away with six is going to be a tall order. I lean under the total but not much wiggle room as a few big plays and a special teams/defensive score puts the over in reach.
Rose Bowl Betting Preview
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
Andrew Lange's Betting Take: I thought for a minute we might see this line climb to 7 as a majority of the early money came in on the Ducks but bettors cleared out all of the 6's yesterday with Oregon now a 5-point favorite across the board.
The stats for both teams are fairly even across the board even though the go about their work in different ways. Oregon played the slightly stronger schedule (37 vs. 55) according to Sagarin's ratings. Our ACCU-Stats show the Ducks with a 0.50 yards per rush edge while the Badgers were 0.14 better at stopping the run. Wisconsin features the stronger passing attack that ranked third nationally in yards per attempt. It is hard to get a gauge on just how good Oregon's pass defense is because with large leads, they just sat back and allowed teams to check down and burn clock. Oregon's secondary picked off 16 passes but Russell Wilson threw just three interceptions which suggest that if Wisconsin wants to move the football through the air, it will be able to do so. The problem though – as with most Oregon opponents – is score too quick, or get stopped on downs, and your defense is now asked to stop UO’s offense. Wisconsin hasn't faced an attack like this all season – had the Badgers faced Michigan it would have provided us with a small blueprint.
One key in handicapping the postseason is to eliminate what teams did at home and instead focus on their road work. For Wisconsin, there were some flaws with road losses at Michigan State and Ohio State as well as a three-point win over the Spartans in the Big Ten title game as 9.5-point favorites. In two of those three contests, the Badgers were beaten badly in the trenches with the Buckeyes rolling up 268 yards to just 89 yards for UW on the ground. In the Big Ten Championship, the Spartans were +64 on the ground and averaged 5.6 ypc. Oregon wasn't tested nearly as much away from Eugene with a loss to LSU to open the season and a 23-point win at Stanford.
While Wisconsin has the ability to be explosive through the air, controlling the ground game and clock are going to be paramount. In Oregon's loss to USC, the Trojans held the ball for over 36 minutes. LSU did the same with a 33-27 edge. Time of possession is a somewhat flawed argument with the Ducks because they score so quick, but think of it in basketball terms: If Oregon averages x-amount of points per possession, then common logic says you need to limit their possessions. Easier said than done, but Wisconsin is capable of running in between the tackles and taking their shots on play action when the timing is right. I haven't been very impressed with Wisconsin's defense this year, and if trading scores is what this game becomes, then the favorite has a considerable edge.
Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Rob Veno’s Betting Take: Aside from the national championship game, this is definitely the most anticipated bowl matchup. NFL caliber quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Brandon Weeden lead these explosive offenses which average 43.6 ppg (Stanford) and 49.3 ppg (Oklahoma State). Magnitude of this contest along with the venue limits the exterior angles to virtually zero in this handicap. Each team will be plenty motivated and the conditions will be perfect so we’ll stick to the fundamental, situational and technical aspects.
Fundamentally, each offense is superior to their opposing defense but there are matchups that will be key. For Oklahoma State, it will be finding a way to run the ball with Joseph Randle to balance out the offense. Stanford’s run defense has been magnificent this year allowing just 90 yards per game. The concern is that Oregon and its spread attack gashed the Cardinal for 232 rushing yards on 5.0 per carry while the balanced and potent attacks of Washington and USC averaged 6.6 and 6.4 yards respectively. Stanford has been pretty stout at the point of attack this season but elite offenses have found it fairly easy to move the football against them. The loss of linebacker Shane Skov back in October really left a void as he was the physical presence on this unit. Stanford has been terrific at sacking the quarterback with 38 on the season but OSU has yielded one sack every 42.5 pass attempts. Pressuring and getting to Weeden will be critical for the Cardinal because their secondary has no shot at slowing down Oklahoma State’s arsenal of talented receivers.
On the Oklahoma State defensive side, it will be imperative that they shut down the Stanford running game which averages 208 yards per game. When Luck has the luxury of play action passing due to a productive ground game, he’s virtually unstoppable. With a mixed bag of receiving targets nearly every week this season due to a string of injuries, Luck has still found a way to direct his team to 273 passing yards per game. This contest will present a great matchup between OSU’s ball hawking secondary (23 interceptions this year) and Stanford’s passing game which uses every option. The Cowboys have not seen an opponent with top notch pass catching tight ends like Stanford’s Cody Fleener and Zach Ertz (55 receptions, 956 yards, 12 TDs combined). Top receiver Chris Owusu will not be available but Luck has been extremely productive when given a majority of healthy starting receivers. Although Oklahoma State has lived off of its 42 takeaways this season, Stanford doesn’t turn it over (only six fumbles lost and nine INTs). They don’t allow sacks either (nine in 386 pass attempts) so Oklahoma State’s defense will have its best and perhaps only weapon (the takeaway) tested.
Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Rob Veno’s Betting Take: Aside from the national championship game, this is definitely the most anticipated bowl matchup. NFL caliber quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Brandon Weeden lead these explosive offenses which average 43.6 ppg (Stanford) and 49.3 ppg (Oklahoma State). Magnitude of this contest along with the venue limits the exterior angles to virtually zero in this handicap. Each team will be plenty motivated and the conditions will be perfect so we’ll stick to the fundamental, situational and technical aspects.
Fundamentally, each offense is superior to their opposing defense but there are matchups that will be key. For Oklahoma State, it will be finding a way to run the ball with Joseph Randle to balance out the offense. Stanford’s run defense has been magnificent this year allowing just 90 yards per game. The concern is that Oregon and its spread attack gashed the Cardinal for 232 rushing yards on 5.0 per carry while the balanced and potent attacks of Washington and USC averaged 6.6 and 6.4 yards respectively. Stanford has been pretty stout at the point of attack this season but elite offenses have found it fairly easy to move the football against them. The loss of linebacker Shane Skov back in October really left a void as he was the physical presence on this unit. Stanford has been terrific at sacking the quarterback with 38 on the season but OSU has yielded one sack every 42.5 pass attempts. Pressuring and getting to Weeden will be critical for the Cardinal because their secondary has no shot at slowing down Oklahoma State’s arsenal of talented receivers.
On the Oklahoma State defensive side, it will be imperative that they shut down the Stanford running game which averages 208 yards per game. When Luck has the luxury of play action passing due to a productive ground game, he’s virtually unstoppable. With a mixed bag of receiving targets nearly every week this season due to a string of injuries, Luck has still found a way to direct his team to 273 passing yards per game. This contest will present a great matchup between OSU’s ball hawking secondary (23 interceptions this year) and Stanford’s passing game which uses every option. The Cowboys have not seen an opponent with top notch pass catching tight ends like Stanford’s Cody Fleener and Zach Ertz (55 receptions, 956 yards, 12 TDs combined). Top receiver Chris Owusu will not be available but Luck has been extremely productive when given a majority of healthy starting receivers. Although Oklahoma State has lived off of its 42 takeaways this season, Stanford doesn’t turn it over (only six fumbles lost and nine INTs). They don’t allow sacks either (nine in 386 pass attempts) so Oklahoma State’s defense will have its best and perhaps only weapon (the takeaway) tested.
Monday's Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
PENN STATE vs. HOUSTON...Nittany Lions just 3-10-1 their last 14 on board and 1-5-1 last seven as dog. Penn State 29-1 last 12 as dog. UH 1-4 vs. line last five bowls but was 10-3 vs. spread in 2011. Tech Trend: Houston, based on Penn State negatives.
MICHIGAN STATE vs. GEORGIA...Mark Richt is 4-1 SU and vs. line in last five bowls, with the loss a year ago vs. UCF at Liberty. Dawgs covered 8 of last 11 TY and were 5-0 vs. points their last five with spreads of 10 or fewer. Rematch of 2009 Cap One Bowl (after 2008 season) in which Georgia won and covered, 24-12. Spartans 8-2 vs. line last 10 TY, although Dantonio no wins or covers in last three bowls. Tech Trend: Georgia, based on bowl trends.
NEBRASKA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA...Bo Pelini 3-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with Huskers, including 2003 Alamo Bowl as interim HC vs. Mich. State after Solich ouster. Spurrier no wins or covers last three years in bowls and just 2-5 vs. spread last 7 away from Williams-Brice Stadium. Tech Trend: Slight to Nebraska, based on bowl trends.
FLORIDA vs. OHIO STATE...Gators enter "Gator" on 8-game spread losing streak. Although Florida did win and cover 5 of 6 bowls for Urban Meyer (lone loss after 2007 to Michigan in Lloyd Carr's last game as coach). Buckeyes won and covered last three bowls for Tressel and are 7-2 vs. number last nine bowls since 2002. Tech Trend: Slight to OSU, based on recent Florida negatives.
WISCONSIN vs. OREGON...Ducks no wins or covers in two bowl games for Chip Kelly. Bielema 3-2 SU and vs. line in bowls. Bielema has covered last four as dog. Bielema 14-5-1 last 20 on board since mid 2010. Ducks surprisingly better on road vs. points (4-1) than at home(2-5-1) this season. Both "over" 9-4 this season, though Wiscy "under" 5-1 last 6 bowls and Ducks "under" last two bowls for Kelly. Tech Trend: Wisconsin, based on team trends.
STANFORD vs. OKLAHOMA STATE...Pointspread showdown, Tree 10-2 vs. line TY and 13-2 last 15 on board, OSU 19-6 against points since LY. Cowboys also 11-1 against spread away from Stillwater since LY. Gundy only 1-2 in last three bowls but did rout Arizona LY at Alamo. Tree has covered last seven vs. non-conference opposition. Tech Trend: Slight to Stanford, based on team trends.
Monday's Bowl Previews and Picks
By Covers.com
TICKETCITY BOWL
Penn State vs. Houston (-7, 56.5)
STORYLINES:
1. Houston comes in looking to shake off blowing a chance to play in a BCS bowl. No. 17 Houston won its first 12 games, only to stumble badly in a 49-28 loss to Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA championship game.
2. Likewise, No. 23 Penn State comes in looking for focus. The Nittany Lions season was derailed by the controversy surrounding former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky that ultimately led to the firing of legendary coach Joe Paterno. Penn State lost two of its final three games and were beaten soundly by Wisconsin, 45-7 in their regular-season finale.
3. On the field, the enticing match-up occurs when Houston has possession. Cougars quarterback Case Keenum passed for 5,099 yards and 45 touchdowns this season, fueling the top-rated passing attack in the country for an offense that averaged 50.8 points per game. He’ll take his shot against a Penn State defense ranked fifth in the nation against the pass and allowed just 15.7 points per contest.
4. As if Penn State hadn’t suffered enough off-the-field distractions, quarterback Matt McGloin may not play after suffering a concussion and seizure during a fight with receiver Curtis Drake in the locker room on Dec. 16. Backup quarterback Rob Bolden has worked with the starting offense in practice.
PREDICTION: Houston 35, Penn State 14. As well as the Nittany Lions defend the pass, Keenum has too much talent to be hemmed in all game, and Penn State will struggle to move the ball against Houston’s defense.
GATOR BOWL
Florida vs. Ohio State (2, 44)
STORYLINES:
1. Two programs that met for the BCS national championship just five years ago stumble into the Gator Bowl looking to salvage a winning season. When Florida beat Ohio State 41-14 for the 2006 BCS title, Urban Meyer patrolled the Gators sideline. Now he’s poised to take over a Buckeyes program still reeling from NCAA rules violations that cost former coach Jim Tressel his job.
2. Neither Ohio State nor Florida is accustomed to being this bad on offense. The Gators never found any consistency this season, finishing 102nd out of 120 FBS schools in total offense. Ohio State was worse, ranking 107th in the nation.
3. Ohio State freshman quarterback Braxton Miller averaged 90.4 yards rushing in his final five games and passed for 11 touchdowns. He’ll be challenged by a Florida defense that finished ninth in the nation in total defense and ranked 20th against the pass.
4. Florida senior quarterback John Brantley threw three interceptions against Florida State in the regular-season finale, before leaving with a concussion. Freshmen quarterbacks Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett, both of whom struggled when called upon this season, could see time if Brantley falters.
PREDICTION: Ohio State 17, Florida 14. Meyer’s future beats Meyer’s past as the Buckeyes have more offense than the inconsistent Gators.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Nebraska vs. South Carolina (-2.5, 45.5)
STORYLINES:
1. Both teams have lost the coordinators of their strong defenses to head coaching jobs, as South Carolina's Ellis Johnson is headed to Southern Mississippi and Nebraska's Carl Pelini is taking over at Florida Atlantic.
2. The Gamecocks rank fourth in the nation in total defense (268.9 yards per game) and are especially tough against the pass (133.0 yards per game), so the Huskers will need to lean on their strong running game even more than usual. Leading rusher Rex Burkhead (1,268 yards, 17 TDs) has been nursing a sore ankle but is expected to play.
3. Both teams boast versatile quarterbacks. South Carolina's Connor Shaw passed for 1,218 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions and added 483 rushing yards and seven touchdowns after taking over for Stephen Garcia. Nebraska's Taylor Martinez was the starter all season and passed for 1,973 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions to go with 837 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.
4. South Carolina has never beaten Nebraska, losing all three meetings, the most recent in 1987. Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier is winless against the Huskers, too, including a 62-24 loss in the 1996 Fiesta Bowl that gave Nebraska the national title over Spurrier's Florida team.
PREDICTION: South Carolina 33, Nebraska 24. Even without Johnson, the Gamecocks defense will be the best unit on the field, and that will be the difference in the fourth quarter.
OUTBACK BOWL
Michigan State vs. Georgia (-3, 50.5)
STORYLINES:
1. This is not the bowl game that either of these schools wanted. Both Georgia (SEC) and Michigan State (Big Ten) missed out on a trip to a BCS Bowl with losses in their respective conference championship games.
2. The Outback Bowl will mark the college finale for the most successful class in Spartans history, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver B.J. Cunningham. The two have hooked up for 12 touchdowns this season and will have plenty of pro scouts watching to see how they perform against SEC-level speed.
3. Georgia coach Mark Richt will be looking to cap a season of redemption with a victory. The embattled coach had plenty of fans calling for his job when the Bulldogs started out with back-to-back losses. Ten straight wins and the SEC East title has quieted those calls.
4. Michigan State has lost five straight bowl games, including a 24-12 setback against Georgia in the 2009 Capital One Bowl. The Spartans were trounced by Alabama, 49-7, in the Capital One Bowl last January. Georgia will be playing in its 10th straight bowl game and looking to bounce back after a 10-6 loss to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl last season.
PREDICTION: Georgia 28, Michigan State 21. The SEC has dominated the Big Ten in bowl games recently, including a 3-0 mark last season. The Bulldogs will continue the conference reign.
Rose Bowl Betting Preview: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
By Covers.com
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks (-6, 72)
ROSE BOWL STORYLINES:
1. Oregon coach Chip Kelly has taken his team to the Rose Bowl, National Championship Game and Rose Bowl again in the last three years. He is still looking for his first win. The Ducks have not won a Rose Bowl since 1917.
2. Wisconsin is coming off a win in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game and will test its sixth-ranked scoring defense (17.0 points) against Oregon’s third-ranked scoring offense (46.2 points). The Badgers have been exposed in the secondary at times, and few teams boast more speed than the Ducks.
3. Badgers running back Montee Ball was a Heisman Trophy finalist and needs one touchdown to tie Barry Sanders (39) for the all-time single-season record. Ball, who scored four times in the Big Ten Championship Game, has recorded 2,014 yards from scrimmage this season.
4. Oregon has its own former Heisman finalist at running back in LaMichael James, who is at 1,856 yards from scrimmage despite missing two games. James was recently announced as a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award, honoring the most versatile player in major college football.
LINE: Oregon -6. A couple shops on the Strip opened with the Ducks giving 5 points but just about every sportsbook is offering Oregon -6 now. The total opened at 71.5 and got bet up to 72.
ABOUT OREGON (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12): The Ducks had the chance to jump into a second National Championship Game but dropped their season-opener to LSU and lost any momentum they had toward the No. 2 slot when they were knocked off by USC, 38-35, on Nov. 19. But Oregon bounced back and won the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, 49-31, over UCLA and totaled 98 points in its final two games. The Ducks play at a breakneck speed, using a no-huddle as their base offense and relying on quickness at each of the skill positions.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (11-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The big difference between last year’s squad that dropped a 21-19 decision to TCU in the Rose Bowl and this edition is quarterback Russell Wilson. The graduate student took little time to get used to his new teammates and was a Heisman Trophy candidate himself for much of the season. Where the Badgers used to be a one-dimensional running team, Wilson has opened up the playbook by passing for 31 touchdowns and ranking second nationally in quarterback rating. Wisconsin has closed with five straight wins, during which Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions.
TRENDS:
The Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
The Ducks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites and 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
The under is 10-2 in Ducks' and Badgers' last 12 combined bowl games.
PREDICTION: Oregon 42, Wisconsin 34. A shootout suit’s the Ducks, who will get Kelly his first bowl win with the school.
Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
By Covers.com
Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 73)
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES
1. In a consolation title game of sorts, the two next-best contenders for the BCS title -- and two of the top five scoring offenses in the nation -- will square off. The third-ranked Cowboys have an extra large chip on their shoulder, feeling they deserved a shot at top-ranked LSU rather than the rematch opportunity granted to Alabama.
2. It's most likely the final college game for Stanford QB Andrew Luck, who is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft if he leaves after his junior year. Luck should be able to exploit an Oklahoma State defense that allows 265.6 passing yards per game, 102nd in the nation.
3. The Cardinal have been tough against the run, ranking fifth in the nation at 90.0 yards allowed per game, but that might not do them much good against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State does most of its damage through the air -- the Cowboys rank second in the nation with 386.2 passing yards per game.
4. The Fiesta Bowl has endured a tumultuous 2011 that featured a scandal involving improper gifts and travel bowl employees granted to politicians, resulting in the firing of longtime president and CEO John Junker.
LINE: Oklahoma State -3.5. You might want to bet the favorite now if you like Okie State because this line doesn't appear to be going down. Oddsmakers opened up this spread at Stanford +3.5 but in the last day or two we've seen some 4's and even a 4.5 pop up. The total has been bet down from 75 down to as low as 73 at some locations.
ABOUT STANFORD (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12): The Cardinal didn't show any noticeable dropoff after losing coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL, as first-year coach David Shaw led them to a second consecutive BCS bowl. They beat Virginia Tech 40-12 in last year's Orange Bowl. Much of the success can be attributed to Heisman Trophy runner-up Luck, who has passed for 3,185 yards with 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Stanford was never really in contention for the BCS title game after a 53-30 loss to Oregon on Nov. 12, because it doesn't have many impressive wins. The Cardinal beat three ranked teams -- Washington, Southern California and Notre Dame -- but none was higher than No. 20 at the time of the game and only the Trojans are still ranked.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (11-1): The Cowboys have the best argument that they should be in the championship game, but a 37-31 overtime loss to Iowa State was just ugly enough to keep them out, even after they rebounded to crush rival Oklahoma 44-10 in the regular-season finale. So it's with some disappointment that their school-record sixth consecutive bowl game comes in Arizona, rather than New Orleans. Star WR Justin Blackmon (1,336 receiving yards, 15 TDs) and 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden (4,328 yards, 34 TDs, 12 INTs) lead the offense that ranked third nationally in total yards (557.0 per game) and second in scoring (49.3 points per game), but RB Joseph Randle is a handful, too. Randle quietly amassed 1,193 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns.
TRENDS:
The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Pac-12 teams and 49-19-2 ATS in their last 70 games when giving points.
The under is 13-3-1 in Stanford's last 17 games as an underdog and 6-1-2 in Okie State's last nine games against teams with winning records.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma State 41, Stanford 35. Teams left on the bubble of the national championship game can go either way, but the Cowboys seem motivated to prove they were unjustly overlooked.
Rose/Fiesta Bowls
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Wisconsin is returning to the Rose Bowl for a second straight season. This time around, the Badgers will take on Oregon from out of the Pac-12.
As of Sunday evening, most betting shops had Oregon (11-2 straight up, 6-5-2 against the spread) installed as a six-point favorite with a total of 72. Gamblers can take Wisconsin to win outright for a plus-190 return (risk $100 to win $190).
Brett Bielema’s team came up short in Pasadena last year, dropping a 21-19 decision to TCU. But the Badgers did cover the number as three-point underdogs.
TCU was in the Rose Bowl because Oregon was in the BCS Championship Game. The Ducks, who lost to Ohio St. in the Rose Bowl two years ago, are in a BCS game for the third straight year under Chip Kelly.
Oregon lost its opener to LSU by a 40-27 count at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, but it responded with nine consecutive victories to get back into the national-title picture. However, thoughts of returning to the BCS Championship Game were shattered on Nov. 19 when Southern Cal went into Eugene and emerged with a 38-35 win as a 16½-point underdog.
Kelly’s team won its regular-season finale with a 49-21 win over Oregon St. in annual Civil War battle. The Ducks were favored by 28 so side bets were a push.
The following week, Oregon beat UCLA 49-31 in the inaugural Pac-12 title game but the Bruins took the cash as 31-point underdogs.
Junior quarterback Darron Thomas enjoyed another stellar year, throwing for 2,493 yards and 30 touchdowns compared to only six interceptions. Even though junior RB LaMichael James missed a couple of games, he still rushed for 1,646 yards and 17 TDs with a 7.4 yards-per-carry average.
De’Anthony Thomas lived up to the hype as a true freshman, producing 1,838 all-purpose yards with nine TD catches and five rushing scores. Kenjon Barner also rushed for 909 yards and 11 TD and had a pair of TD receptions.
Wisconsin (11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) got an early Christmas gift in August when Russell Wilson, a transfer from North Carolina St., decided on Madison ahead of Auburn. Wilson didn’t disappoint, leading the Badgers to victory in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game while putting up dazzling numbers.
Wilson completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 2,879 yards with an amazing 31/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson can also scramble and rushed for 320 yards and five TDs.
Montee Ball had a monster campaign, rushing for 1,759 yards and 32 TDs. Ball’s presence helped set up Wilson’s play-action opportunities and, in turn, teams had to be reluctant to stack the box to stop Ball out of fear of Wilson’s aerial accuracy. This combination resulted in a dynamic offensive unit that averaged 44.6 points per game.
Wisconsin’s losses came in back-to-back road games in late October. After winning their first six games by 31 points or more, the Badgers lost 37-31 at Michigan St. on a Hail Mary pass to end the game. Seven days later, they lost 33-29 at Ohio St.
Since then, Wisconsin has won five in a row, including a 42-39 revenge victory over the Spartans to win the Big Ten title. However, we should note that the Badgers are in the midst of a 2-5 ATS slide after failing to hook up their backers in the win over MSU as 9½-point favorites.
Both schools saw the ‘over’ finish with a 9-4 overall record. The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive games for Oregon and eight of Wisconsin’s last 10 outings.
ESPN will have the telecast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.
The Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ., will take center stage in the prime-time slot, featuring Oklahoma St. and Stanford in an 8:30 p.m. Eastern showdown on ESPN.
As of Sunday night, most spots had the Cowboys listed as four-point favorites with the total in the 74-75 range. The Cardinal is available on the money line for a plus-155 payout.
Oklahoma St. (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) finished the regular season in style, trouncing arch-rival Oklahoma by a 44-10 score as a 3 ½-point home ‘chalk’ in the Bedlam game in Stillwater. Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith combined to rush for 270 yards and both had two rushing TDs apiece. The OSU defense held OU to a season low in points thanks to two interceptions of Landry Jones.
Mike Gundy’s squad was in prime position to get to the school’s first BCS Championship Game. But on Nov. 18 in Ames, the 10-0 Cowboys blew a 10-point halftime lead in a 37-31 double-overtime loss at Iowa St.
Brandon Weeden threw for 476 yards and three TDs against the Cyclones, but he also had three costly interceptions. For the year, Weeden passed for 4,328 yards with a 34/12 TD-INT ratio.
Weeden had the benefit of one of the nation’s premier WRs in Justin Blackmon, who made 113 catches for 1,336 yards and 15 TDs. Randle rushed for a team-high 1,193 yards and 23 TDs.
Like OSU, Stanford (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) was also unbeaten into the month of November. On Nov. 12, though, Oregon came to Palo Alto and ruined the Cardinal’s national-title hopes by cruising to a 53-30 win as a three-point underdog.
Although Andrew Luck didn’t get his team to New Orleans and he came up short in the Heisman Trophy voting, he still had a great junior year and is a lock to go No. 1 in this year’s NFL Draft.
Luck completed 70-percent of his passes for 3,185 yards with a 35/9 TD-INT ratio. RB Stepfan Taylor gave the offense balance with his running ability, finishing with 1,153 rushing yards and eight TDs. Tyler Gaffney added seven rushing TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC.
Coby Fleener led Stanford in TD grabs with 10, while Griff Whalen hauled in a team-high 49 receptions for 664 yards and four scores. Chris Owusu had 35 catches for 376 yards and two TDs before sustaining a second concussion that’s kept him out of the last three games. Owusu is ‘doubtful’ for the Rose Bowl.
The ‘under’ is 6-4-2 overall for Oklahoma St., cashing in each of its last three games. The Cowboys have had five totals in the 70s with the ‘under’ going 3-2 in those instances.
Totals have been an overall wash for Stanford (6-6), but the ‘over’ is 4-2 in its last six games. This is the highest total the Cardinal has seen this year. The ‘over’ hit in its lone game with a total in the 70s.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Wisconsin and Stanford are both in their first underdog situations of the season.
Oregon lost outright in its lone single-digit favorite spot, falling to LSU as a three-point ‘chalk.’
Oklahoma St. is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite this year.
In this recent report from SportsByBrooks, Brooks implies that Urban Meyer might be participating in Ohio State’s preparation for its Gator Bowl showdown vs. Florida. If so, that would be such an Oscar Weiner type move.
South Carolina is 1-4 in bowl games during Steve Spurrier’s tenure. The Gamecocks will try to end a three-game losing streak in the postseason when it faces Nebraska on Monday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
NCAAF Preview
Ticket City Bowl
Penn State’s starting QB is out because a WR gave him a concussion in a locker room fight; been tough couple months for Nittany Lions, who have interim coach who is likely to be job hunting Tuesday. State is 9-3 but lost two of last three games, getting whacked 45-7 in finale at Wisconsin- they’re 1-2-1 as an underdog this year. 12-1 Houston got crushed 49-28 in C-USA title game, after being hopeful of landing in BCS bowl; they’re 10-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, but they did allow 34+ points in five games. Cougars lost four of last five bowl games, allowing 42+ points in three of four losses- their only was against Air Force. Penn State is 3-2 in last five bowls, despite being underdog in four of five games- they allowed 17 or less points in the three wins, 38-37 in losses.
Outback Bowl
Michigan State-Georgia both lost conference title games; State scored 31+ points in its last five games behind senior QB Cousins; they’re 3-2 as underdogs this year. Georgia started season losing to Boise/South Carolina then won 10 straight, holding eight of those 10 opponents to 17 or less points- they’re 8-2 as favorites this year. Spartans lost their last five bowl games, with four losses by 10+ points; they lost 24-12 (+8.5) to Georgia in Capital One Bowl three years ago; Spartans allowed 41-49 points in last two bowls. Dawgs had their bowl winning streak snapped LY; they had won last four bowl games, scoring 35 ppg. Last seven years, SEC teams are 5-2 vs Big Dozen teams in this game. Big Dozen teams are 17-15 as bowl underdogs since ’06, but are 0-2 this year. SEC bowl favorites are 19-13 vs spread last six years, 1-2 this year.
Capital One Bowl
Nebraska scored 34+ points in six of first seven games, then tailed off to 20.6 ppg in last five games; Cornhuskers are 3-4 as underdogs under Pelini, 0-2 this year- they allowed 48-28-45 points in their three losses. South Carolina was 6-1 once they cut troubled QB Garcia, replacing him with sophomore Shaw; Gamecocks held five of last six I-A opponents to 13 or less points, covering four of last five as a favorite. SEC teams been favored over Big Dozen teams in last eight Capital One Bowls, but lost five of last seven SU; Nebraska is 3-2 in its last five bowls but won its last four Florida bowls; they lost 17-14 to Auburn last time they played an SEC team in a bowl. South Carolina lost four of last five bowls, scoring 10-7-17 points in losing last three, all by 9+ points; last time Spurrier faced Huskers in a bowl, his Florida team lost 62-24 in ‘97.
Gator Bowl
Shadow of Urban Meyer hovers over Florida-Ohio State game; Meyer recruited most of these Gators, will coach OSU next year. Florida lost six of last seven games vs I-A foes after 4-0 start; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this year, with Gators 4-2 as a favorite. Buckeyes lost last three games, allowing 38.7 ppg, but they covered last four tries as an underdog. OSU perked up after late October bye week, scoring 27.6 ppg in last five games. Florida scored 24-51-37 points in winning its last three bowls, but those Gators aren’t these Gators; Florida (+7) beat Ohio State 41-14 in national title game five years ago. Buckeyes won last two bowls 26-17/31-26, beating Arkansas of SEC LY, but that was with Tressel on sidelines. Underdogs covered four of last five Gator Bowls. Average total in OSU’s last five bowls is 52.4. Why are these teams playing in this good a bowl?
Rose Bowl
Since 1993, Pac-12 teams other than USC are 1-9 in the Rose Bowl. Oregon won 1917 Rose Bowl over Penn, but hasn’t won it since; they scored 36.1/47.0 ppg in Kelly’s first two seasons, but lost 26-17/22-19 in bowl games; they haven’t won game under Kelly when opponent had more than week to prepare. 11-2 Wisconsin scored 31-29 points in its two losses, giving up last-minute TD passes in both games; this is first time all season they’re an underdog. Badgers are bowl underdog for sixth year in row, losing three of last four; they’ve scored 20 or less points in last five bowls, losing this game LY 21-19 to TCU. Underdogs covered five of last seven Rose Bowls. Only teams to beat Oregon this year were LSU/USC, arguably two of best five teams in country.
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State scores a ridiculous amount of points, averaging 49.3 ppg; their only loss came in OT at Iowa State on night after a plane crash killed the women’s basketball coach at OSU, which had to be sobering factor. Cowboys are 8-3 as favorites this year, 3-0 if laying single digits- they’re 3-2 in last five bowls (favorites 4-1 vs spread), scoring 31+ points in four of five games. Stanford was 11-1, losing 53-30 at home to Oregon; they’re underdog for first time this year. Cardinal is in third straight bowl, splitting last two; they’ve lost three of last four bowls overall. In 24 games these teams played this year, only once did either side score less than 30 points (Stanford 28-14 over Notre Dame). Underdogs covered four of last five Fiesta Bowls, with average total in those games 59.2 ppg. Last college game for Cardinal QB Luck and OSU’s 27-year old QB Weeden.