Independence Bowl Betting Preview
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Rob Veno's Betting Take: This is a very intriguing matchup from many angles including motivational, fundamental, key personnel losses and recent bowl history. North Carolina would figure to play this game with great energy and emotion for well liked, interim head coach Everett Withers. But with Larry Fedora stepping in next season, Withers may be somewhat distracted having already landed a gig with Urban Meyer at Ohio State. Add to that the recent suspension of star wide receiver Dwight Jones (status up in the air now as UNC has asked the NCAA for re-instatement), and you have a pair of off-field disruptions less than a week before kickoff. Missouri meanwhile concluded on-campus practices and split into a Columbia group, which remained at school, and a Texas group, which was allowed to travel home for a couple of days. The Tigers will meet up in Shreveport Wednesday and begin preparations. Thus far, they’ve steered clear of off-field troubles and head coach Gary Pinkel has placed a substantial amount of emphasis on winning this contests. Pinkel called this the most injury filled season he’s ever experienced in 21 years of coaching and they’ll play with some banged up players including starting defensive end Brad Madison (2nd on team in sacks 4.5, 3rd in tackles for loss 8.5).
The most important fundamental matchup here will be the North Carolina defense which aside from Clemson did not see anything in the way of a true spread offense with balance and a mobile quarterback. Clemson torched the Tar Heels for 45 offensive points, 373 passing yards and three touchdowns of 25+ yards. The only other capable running quarterback North Carolina faced was Georgia Tech’s Tevin Washington and they had trouble that day as well allowing 35 points. James Franklin is the best combination they’ll have faced so it will be interesting to see if North Carolina can defend MU’s potent arsenal. When Missouri lost running back Henry Josey for the season during its game against Baylor, it was thought that the ground game would severely drop off but junior backup Kendial Lawrence stepped in and ran for 307 yards and 5.2 per carry over the last 3+ regular season games. Place kicking has been an issue ever since Week 2 when steady senior Grant Ressel missed a potential game winning field goal attempt and then slumped. His hip injury forced junior punter Trey Barrow to take over all kicking duties and he’s posted a dismal 7-of-18 on FGs the last five games.
Last year’s bowl loss late in the game to Iowa still haunts a good portion of this Missouri team and they want to atone for that with a win here. UNC meanwhile had an incredible and controversial 30-27 OT win over Tennessee which could give them confidence if this is a close affair late. In the end, expect Missouri’s superior offensive balance (236.5 rypg, 238.5 pypg) combined with the number of superior passing offenses they’ve faced this season to make the difference. North Carolina has more individual NFL talent but Missouri is the better team unit and since Pinkel is focused on winning this game, laying the -5 should be the right side.
College Bowl System
By Robbie Gainous
As Christmas approaches, the college bowl season is gaining momentum and we make our way through the myriad of bowl games. The college football post-season is truly different from the regular season and must be treated accordingly.
Many of the regular season angles, trends and systems do not apply to the Conference Championships and Bowl Games. Some bowl teams bring the needed focus and intensity required to win while other teams treat it more like a vacation and seem to be quite satisfied with just showing up.
It is often said in college football that if you are going to lose a game make sure you lose early because a late season loss cannot be overcome while an early season loss is more easily forgotten. In keeping with that thought, we wanted to know how teams reacted when they started slow but won several games in a row to end the regular season.
Our research focused on bowl favorites who ended the regular season on a winning streak after struggling to begin the season. The oddsmakers have become blind to the fact that these mediocre teams are not favorite material after winning fewer than eight games overall during the regular season.
SYSTEM: Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite with less than 8 SU wins on the season and 20 or more days rest off 3 SU wins. This system has posted a record of 0-17-1 ATS since 1995 failing to cover the spread by an average of 13.4 points per game.
The system is active in the Independence Bowl this year with the Missouri Tigers posting a 7-5 SU record on the season and winning their final three games to become bowl eligible. They first defeated Texas 17 to 5 then faced Texas Tech and won 31 to 27 and they ended the regular season defeating Kansas 24 to 10.
With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football Power System of the Week qualifies a play AGAINST the Missouri Tigers in the Independence Bowl on Monday December 26. We want to Play ON the NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS plus the points over the Missouri Tigers.
Independence Bowl Preview
By Jim Feist
Missouri (7-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) is playing well on offense behind sophomore QB James Franklin (20 TDs, 10 INTs), averaging 32 points, 225 yards rushing and 233 yard passing, though they recently lost dynamic soph RB Henry Joseph (knee, out for the season). He ran for 1,168 yards, a sizzling 8.1 yards per carry! QB Franklin is their second leading rusher with 839 yards. This defense was No. 6 in the country last season allowing 16.1 ppg, but worse this year, especially in the secondary, allowing 23.5 ppg. Baylor had a 42-39 victory over Missouri with 697 yards (291 rushing). The Under is 9-3 in the Tigers last 12 non-conference games.
North Carolina (7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) returned 10 starters on offense, 5 on defense for Everett Withers, the new head coach (former defensive coordinator). They started fast (5-1) but finished losing 4 of their last 6 games. Sophomore QB Bryn Renner (23 TDs, 12 INTs, 2,769 yards) runs the offense that has good balance, 28.3 points, 147.4 yards rushing and 249.2 passing. He has talented sidekicks in freshman RB Giovani Bernard (1,222 yds, 5.4 ypc, 13 TDs) and senior WR Dwight Jones (1,119 yds). The Tar Heels are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as a dog; the under is 9-4 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Independence Bowl Preview
Over last five years, Big X teams are 3-0 in bowls vs ACC teams, with wins by 3-3-5 points (dogs 3-0 vs spread); over last five years, teams from Big X are just 13-26 vs spread in bowl games, 4-9 when favored. Missouri is 1-4 as a favorite this year- Tigers allowed 37+ points in four of five losses. Tar Heels have new coach, but he's coaching his old team out in Hawaii; they're 2-4 in last six games after 5-1 start. UNC is 1-2 as an underdog this year. North Carolina is playing in its 4th straight bowl, with previous three decided by total of 6 points. Favorites covered this bowl last five years; last dog to win here was Mizzou in '05, its last visit here (also lost here in '03). Underdogs are 29-13 vs spread in ACC bowl games the last five years, with ACC teams 14-6 as underdogs. Missouri is jumping to SEC next year; this game is in Shreveport, SEC country.
Independence Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS vs. MISSOURI TIGERS (-5.5, 52.5)
ADVOCARE V100 INDEPENDENCE BOWL STORYLINES
1. Missouri's parting gift from the Big 12 Conference -- the Tigers are headed to the Southeastern Conference along with Texas A&M next season -- was being passed over in the Big 12's bowl pecking order and relegated to a third trip to Shreveport, La., since 2003. The Tigers lost to Arkansas 27-14 in 2003 and rallied for a 38-31 win over South Carolina in 2005. North Carolina is playing in the Independence Bowl for the first time.
2. Both teams boast sophomore quarterbacks who put up big numbers, and they could be relied upon to carry the load, because both defenses are tough against the run. North Carolina's Bryn Renner has passed for 2,769 yards and 23 touchdowns, which ties Chris Keldorf's school record. Missouri's James Franklin has been a catalyst for the Tigers' balanced offense with 2,733 passing yards and 839 rushing yards and 33 total touchdowns.
3. It will be the Tar Heels' final game under interim coach Everett Withers, as former Southern Mississippi coach Larry Fedora will take over after the bowl game. North Carolina won five of its first six games under Withers but stumbled down the stretch, losing four of its last six. Withers announced that he'll be joining Urban Meyer's staff at Ohio State after the bowl game.
4. The teams have met only twice, with Missouri winning both meetings in 1973 and 1976. The Tigers won the first contest 27-14 in Chapel Hill and won 24-3 at home three years later. North Carolina has not played a Big 12 opponent since a 52-21 home loss to Texas in 2002, and the Tar Heels haven't beaten a current Big 12 team since a 20-0 win over Kansas in 1986.
LINE: Missouri opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has been bet up steadily to 5.5. But you can still find the Tigers at -5 if you shop around. The total is 52.5 or 53, depending on the book.
WEATHER: There's an 80 percent chance of rain at kickoff, with temperatures in the mid-40s and light wind. The chance of rain decreases slightly throughout the game. By 8 p.m. ET, the forecast calls for a 60 percent chance.
ABOUT MISSOURI (7-5, 5-4 Big 12): The Tigers closed the regular season with three straight wins to land in a bowl game for a school-record seventh consecutive season. The Tigers haven't won their last four games of the season since 1965. The late-season success helped make up for a tumultuous stretch in which leading rusher Henry Josey was lost for the season with two torn ligaments and a torn tendon in his left knee and head coach Gary Pinkel was suspended for one game after pleading guilty to a drunk driving charge. Losing Josey proved to be a speed bump for the nation's No. 12 offense (473.2 yards per game) but the defense was up to the task down the stretch, shutting down Texas in a 17-5 home win and stifling Kansas in a 24-10 win in Kansas City to end the regular season.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (7-5, 3-5 ACC): The Tar Heels are playing in a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season, their longest streak since going to seven straight bowl games from 1992-98. Giovani Bernard has rushed for a North Carolina freshman record 1,222 yards, becoming the first Tar Heel to top 1,000 rushing yards since 1997. With 13 rushing touchdowns, he needs one more to tie the school's freshman record. The Tar Heels got some good news when leading receiver Dwight Jones was reinstated to the team. Jones was originally declared ineligible after allowing his name and image to be used to promote a party in his hometown of Burlington, N.C. Jones hauled in a school-record 79 passes for 1,119 this season with 11 going for touchdowns. Bernard and Jones are the first duo in school history to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season.
TRENDS:
- Missouri is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games on grass.
- Missouri is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 neutral-site games.
- North Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.
- North Carolina is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.
- Under is 9-3 in Missouri's last 12 non-conference games.
- Under is 9-4 in UNC's last 13 games vs. winning teams.
PREDICTION: Missouri 27, North Carolina 23 -- The Tigers have more weapons and will end a season with four straight wins for the first time in 46 years.