What Bettors Need to Know: BBVA Compass Bowl
By Covers.com
SMU Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-3.5, 46.5)
BBVA COMPASS BOWL STORYLINES
1. Pittsburgh enters without head coach Todd Graham, who left to take the reins at Arizona State. Pitt defensive coordinator Keith Patterson will serve as interim head coach.
2. SMU and Pittsburgh have split their previous five matchups, 2-2-1. The two schools have not played since the Mustangs eked out a 7-3 victory in the 1983 Cotton Bowl, the lone meeting between the two since 1948.
3. Pittsburgh is playing in the BBVA Compass Bowl for the second straight year, having defeated Kentucky 27-10 last season. SMU is playing in its third consecutive bowl game after going 25 years without a postseason appearance.
LINE: Pittsburgh opened as high as -5.5 but has been bet down to as low as a field-goal favorite. The total has fallen from 49 to 47 points.
ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (7-5, 5-3 C-USA, 4-8 ATS): The Mustangs have lost four of six since a 5-1 start, dropping their final three road games by a combined score of 102-17. A major part of the slide has been SMU's inability to take care of the football. SMU ranks dead last among FBS schools in turnover margin (minus-1.42), with 31 giveaways overall. Making matters worse is the loss of junior RB Zach Line, who had 1,244 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns before suffering a season-ending toe injury. Senior WR Cole Beasley (79 rec., 954 yards) paces a solid air attack.
ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-6, 4-3 Big East, 7-5 ATS): The Panthers have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde outfit all season long. QB Tino Sunseri has been erratic, throwing 10 interceptions against 10 touchdowns, but a porous offensive line can shoulder plenty of the blame. Pittsburgh has allowed 57 sacks this season, one of the highest single-season totals in FBS history. Defensively, the Panthers are nearly as adept at getting to the quarterback, ranking fourth nationally with 3.25 sacks per game. Sophomore DL Aaron Donald leads the team with 10 sacks.
TRENDS:
* Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Mustangs last six games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Panthers last five bowl games.
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 19, SMU 16 -- Even without Graham on the sideline, the Panthers should be able to grind out a win against a mistake-prone group of Mustangs playing without their top offensive threat.
Compass Bowl Preview
SMU is happy to still have June Jones as coach (he almost went off to Arizona State); Pitt lost its coach (Graham wound up taking ASU's job), so counting interim coach, Panthers will have had five coaches in three years. Pitt beat Kentucky in this bowl LY, making Big East teams 5-0 in this bowl in SEC country; since 2006, Big East bowl teams are 23-9 in bowl games, 5-0 vs Conference USA teams, 11-9 as a favorite. Underdog covered this bowl three of last four years. Favorite is 5-0 vs spread in Pitt's last five bowls, with Panthers winning last two- they're 1-3 away from home this year, with only win at Louisville. SMU split bowls last two years, allowing 10-16 points. Big East is 3-1 in its bowls this year despite being underdog in all four games. Since 2008, C-USA teams are 11-11 in bowls, 7-5 vs spread when a bowl underdog. Can't endorse club whose players feel abandoned by constantly moving coaching carousel.