Texas Bowl Betting Preview
By Marty Otto
Sportsmemo.com
Marty Otto's Betting Take: Texas A&M couldn’t get out of its own way down the stretch run of the season, finishing just 1-4 SU. It seemed like a recurring theme in the Mike Sherman era and unsurprisingly the Aggies fired their head coach. It’s been a bit of a snowball since then.
Their defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter will carry the short interim tag before leaving for the full time head job at Fresno State and may not be fully committed to this game. The team lost one of its leading rushers to a season ending knee injury (Christine Michael) and its other leading rusher has been limited in practice with an injured shoulder. The Aggies have had to deal with the death of one backup offensive lineman due to a car accident during the holidays, and the suspension of another offensive lineman for a violation of team rules. Focus could perhaps be an issue.
How many times have we seen this bunch show a lack of focus can be a killer? Whether it was blown leads in the second half or slow starts out of the gate, inconceivable turnovers from the offense or blown assignments by the defense… this simply hasn’t been a mentally strong team.
Northwestern is not as talented as Texas A&M. They don’t have the athletes or the speed but what they do have is a solid mental makeup. This is a team that has been a good bet as an underdog over the years. And with Dan Persa under center the Wildcats run a spread passing offense similar to ones we’ve seen trouble the Aggies in Big XII play.
If I trusted this defense at all I’d probably take a small piece of Northwestern on the money line. But this spread is generous enough that they could lose and still have a great shot at covering. While they’re 0-3 SU in their last three bowl games, Northwestern took the cash in all three going 3-0 ATS. And they were underdogs each time. Despite the “home field” edge for Texas A&M with this game being played in Houston I want no part of them as a double-digit favorite.
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Liberty Bowl Betting Preview
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Rob Veno’s Betting Take: There’s an onslaught of enthusiasm being exuded by each of these fan bases with 10,000 tickets apiece purchased as of Wednesday. However, the teams playing in this contest appear to have some difference in their mindsets. Vanderbilt has preached its extreme excitement to be here from the outset while Cincinnati still has some thoughts of its lost chance at a BCS bid. The motivational gap could decide the outcome between these otherwise evenly matched teams.
For the Bearcats, the good news is quarterback and leader Zach Collaros is back from his broken ankle and has looked good in practice. Collaros brings a much more fluid look to the Cincinnati offense which was very erratic while under the direction of backup Munchie Legaux. There are still some differing reports about how much Collaros will play in this one and it certainly appears right now that both quarterbacks will see action. The test for Cincinnati will be to run the ball with star back Isaiah Pead against a very formidable Commodores rush defense which allowed only 3.4 yards per carry this season. If Vanderbilt can take away the running threat and Cincinnati’s offensive balance in the process, the electric passing attack of UC could at least be contained. It would help Cincinnati if Collaros is able to play the bulk of this game because he’s by far their best passer and the best passing teams Vandy faced this season (Arkansas, Georgia & Alabama) all threw for 266 yards or more and scored 31 points or more. Bearcats wide receivers senior DJ Woods and sophomore Anthony McClung are game breaking threats and Pead is a big play receiver out of the backfield.
Vanderbilt’s offense has flourished since Aaron Rodgers’ younger brother Jordan took over as the starter. Since his insertion in game 7 versus Army, Vanderbilt’s offensive production has risen from 261.8 ypg and 21.7 ppg to a balanced 423.8 ypg (206 ypg rushing, 217.8 ypg passing) and 32.2 ppg. The Commodores will have to protect Rodgers against a fierce Cincinnati pass rush that recorded 43 sacks this season and at least three in nine of their last 10 games. Running back Zac Stacey has been every bit the equal of Cincy’s Pead this year with 1,136 yards on 6.2 yards per carry. Much like Cincinnati, Vanderbilt will also need its ground game to be successful against a tough defensive front in order balance the offense out.
Special teams don’t show any significant edge for either squad so this one figures to come down to big plays and motivation. In Cincinnati’s favor are their 43 sacks and 30 takeaways along with their wide receiver prowess. In Vanderbilt’s favor is their opposing schedule which was far more rugged than that of Cincinnati’s. My power ratings gap between them is nearly 10 points which is enormous. Also on the Vandy side is the enthusiastic attitude they’ve brought to Memphis led by first-year head coach James Franklin. He’s been a non-stop force driving home the need to win this bowl game for the ascension of this program in every facet. Vanderbilt has shown some dominant trends their last seven games going 6-1 against the spread and 6-1 “over” the total. Cincinnati meanwhile has gone 7-2 “under” the total in its last nine games and 0-4 against the spread its last four bowl appearances.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Teddy Covers' Betting Take: Since the end of the regular season, Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn left the program to become the Arkansas State head coach, taking a pay cut to leave town. Then, defensive coordinator Ted Roof took a pay cut to take the same job at Central Florida. While numerous reports have described the situation as calm, not chaotic, when both coordinators leave town before bowl season, taking pay cuts in the process, it can’t be considered a positive sign moving forward.
Auburn has on-field issues as well. The Tigers were at their best this year when they were pounding the ball with leading rusher Michael Dyer, who finished the season with more than 1,200 rushing yards and ten touchdowns. But Dyer has been suspended for the bowl for the ubiquitous, violation of team rules, leaving outside threat Onterio McCalebb without his counterpart between the tackles. Considering the Tigers’ weakness at quarterback this year – both starter Clint Moseley and wildcat threat Kiehl Frazier have been taking snaps with the first string offense in practice – the loss of Dyer is a major obstacle for an Auburn team that is a long way from its National Championship squad of a year ago.
While Auburn is taking a big step down from last year, bowl wise, Virginia is thrilled to be here, ending a bowl drought that dated back to 2007. The Cavaliers got better and better as the season progressed, winning six of their last eight to finish second in the ACC Coastal Division, behind only Virginia Tech. That late season run included outright upset wins over Georgia Tech, Miami and Florida State, the latter two victories coming on the road in extremely hostile environments. Clearly, the team picked up on what second year head coach Mike London was teaching down the stretch, making them a ‘live’ dog in Atlanta on Saturday.
Saturday's Bowl Previews
3dailywinners.com
TEXAS A&M vs. NORTHWESTERN
With 18 returning starters, everything was in place for a special season for Texas A&M. But everyone associated with the Aggies program in some way contributed to its failure. The loud move to the SEC, the inability of the players and coaches to handle the third quarter of games, which led to defeats, and finally, the poor handling of firing Mike Sherman as coach all played a part. On the field, the cup was always half empty. QB Ryan Tannehill wasn’t always on target and too often when he was drops occurred. The defense could create loads of negative plays, but gave up 28.7 PPG. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in bowls.
Northwestern also had their share of games they could have won but failed to so and will seek to be the squad that surfaces with a winning record on the season. The Wildcats no-huddle offense prefers to dink and dunk and take shots down the field as games progress, which could wear out the vaunted Texas A&M pass rush. Dan Persa is a big-time threat in the passing game, completing 74.2 percent of his passes this season. Kain Colter is a multi-dimensional threat and is part of the reason Northwestern gained 68 more yards per game than their opponents allowed.
UTAH vs. GEORGIA TECH
This was not vintage Utah football this season. In spite of RB John White averaging 117.0 yards a game (11th in the nation); the Utes were subpar 82ndin the country rushing the ball at 137 yards. For this Sun Bowl, look for Utah to utilize the fly sweep with and without misdirection to test Georgia Tech on the perimeter. The passing game never found a rhythm, but DeVonte Christopher is the most dangerous pass-catching threat with a team-leading 38 receptions. In a match of strength vs. strength, Utah’s No.7 run defense will be challenged all over the field by the Yellow Jackets option offense. The underdog is 18-5 ATS the last 23 years in the Sun Bowl.
Critics point to Georgia Tech’s 6-0 start as being a function of a workable schedule and once the competition picked up, the Jackets posted a 2-4 finish. Georgia Tech players will try and curtail such talk and end their six-game bowl losing streak. Coach Paul Johnson’s option attack rolled up 316.8 rushing YPG, ranking third nationally. How Utah will attempt to slow the Jackets down is shadowing the running backs and have QB Tevin Johnson keep the pigskin since he is less explosive (4.0 YPC). Georgia Tech lacks size in the D-Line and has to shoot gaps to stop the run.
UCLA vs. ILLINOIS
If proof is needed there is at least one too many bowl games, this is it. Either team has a winning record and one squad needed a special dispensation to be able to play in the game because of losing record. Though both head coaches have been axed, the Fight Hunger Bowl marches on. The collapse of the Illinois offense line led directly to closing the season 0-6, with the offense mustering just 268.6 yards a contest. This affected the confidence of QB Nathan Scheelhasse, who didn’t have time to throw and lanes to run thru, wasting the big plays of A.J. Jenkins. This game is worth watching just to follow the Illini’s Whitney Mercilus, who led the nation with 14.5 sacks despite battling double teams all season.
Chances are this will be the last time UCLA will run The Pistol as its main offense a with new coaching regime. QB Kevin Prince is mildly effective as a runner or passer in this offense, with no particular outstanding skill. The running backs are by committee and finished 29th overall in the country rushing. The Bruins enter the postseason ranked 96th nationally in run defense, conceding 191.5 YPG. Seven opponents ran for more than 200 yards.
CINCINNATI vs. VANDERBILT
The Liberty Bowl oddsmakers line tells the story of respect about the SEC. The Big East co-champion is an underdog to a .500 squad from the SEC. First year coach James Franklin did almost the impossible, saying and carrying out mission to alter the losing culture at Vanderbilt. The Commodores were faster and more physical than any Vandy outfit in years. The ‘Dores defense finished the regular season 19thin total defense as DE Tim Fugger played at All-SEC level. Aaron Rodgers younger brother Jordan was more accurate as the season progressed, finding WRs Jordan Matthews and Chris Boyd. The favorite is only 1-7 ATS in Memphis.
Cincinnati’s prospects in this bowl might be improving dramatically as senior QB Zach Collaros has practicing with the first team just five weeks after suffering a broken ankle. Collaros has been nimble in the pocket and making all the usual throws and could be ready by New Year’s Eve. Having Collaros back even at 80 percent would impact this contest, since the Bearcats probably would have won the Big East if he played the entire year. For Cincinnati to puncture the Vanderbilt defense, RB Isaiah Pead will need a big game, and he’s skilled at busting long-gainers. The Bearcats pass rushers recorded 44 sacks this season.
VIRGINIA vs. AUBURN
The last football game of 2011 will feature the team that still is the defending national champions in Auburn. Virginia provides the opposition and is playing in first bowl in four years. The Cavaliers were a factor in the ACC until losing their final game to rival Virginia Tech. Despite being burned for 410 yards by the Hokies, Virginia was still good enough wind up 30thin total defense and allowed only 5.1 yards per play. The Cavs offense was as good as competition, moving the ball and scoring on weaker teams and needing the defense to bail them out against competent competitors. Fortunately, in the Chick-Fil A Bowl, Auburn coughs up 29.2 PPG. The underdog is 17-8-1 ATS in Atlanta.
With just two starters back on defense, Auburn’s stop troops were offensive. The Tigers finished the season ranked 99th in the country in rush defense, 79th in scoring defense and 78th in total defense. DE Corey Lemonier was the best player (13.5 tackles for loss) on baneful defense. The offense was crisp early, but once SEC action commenced, Auburn’s offense was faulty. Other than the Ole Miss matchup, the Tigers failed to score more than 17 points in league play. RB Michael Dyer ended up being the lone offensive weapon.
What Bettors Need to Know: New Year's Eve Bowl Game Action
By Covers.com
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Northwestern Wildcats (+10, 68.5)
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL STORYLINES:
1. Texas A&M will be making its final appearance as a Big 12 school and will be operating under a new coach in interim boss Tim DeRuyter when it faces Northwestern in the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas on New Year’s Eve. The Aggies, who fired Mike Sherman after the regular season, move to the SEC in 2012.
2. Northwestern is considerably more stable with Pat Fitzgerald at coach and has lower expectations to meet. Still, Fitzgerald and company would love to snap the school’s 62-year drought with a bowl win.
3. The Aggies were ranked in the top 10 in the preseason and had National Championship aspirations but consistently lost close games against top competition, falling twice in overtime and losing by a total of seven points in regulation to Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Texas.
4. Texas A&M will be looking to snap a 10-year bowl win drought. The Aggies are still waiting to see if running back Cyrus Gray, who went over 1,000 yards this season, will be able to go after suffering a shoulder injury on Nov. 19 against Kansas.
TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
LINE: Texas A&M opened as a -9.5 favorite and has been bet up to -10.
ABOUT TEXAS A&M (6-6, 4-5 Big 12, 3-9 ATS): The Aggies will be led by former Houston coach Kevin Sumlin going forward with DeRuyter moving on to take over Fresno State. Also enjoying his last game for the Aggies will be quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who gets one more chance to impress NFL scouts. The former wide receiver guides an offense that averages 39.6 points but had some of his worst performances against better competition, totaling 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in six losses and 16 scores vs. two picks in six wins. The Aggies will be playing with heavy hearts following the death of senior offensive lineman Joseph Villavisencio, who was killed in a car accident after a team charity event on Thursday.
ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 5-7 ATS): The Wildcats have their own star senior quarterback in Dan Persa, who led the nation with a 74.2 completion percentage after missing the first three games while recovering from an Achilles injury. Northwestern last won a bowl game at the 1949 Rose Bowl but will be making their fourth straight postseason appearance under Fitzgerald after closing the season 4-1. That stretch was preceded by a five-game slide during which the Wildcats allowed an average of 35.2 points.
TRENDS:
* Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Over is 6-2 in Aggies' last eight games as favorites.
* Over is 11-4 in Wildcats' last 15 games as underdogs.
PREDICTION: Texas A&M 35, Northwestern 21. The streak will reach 63 years for the Wildcats, who don’t have the pieces to match up against Tannehill and company.
Utah Utes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5, 49.5)
SUN BOWL STORYLINES
1. Georgia Tech has lost six straight bowl games, while Utah had its nine-game bowl win streak snapped in last year’s 26-3 loss to Boise State in the Maaco Bowl Las Vegas.
2. With their spread option attack, the Yellow Jackets rank third nationally in rushing (316.8). The Utes rank seventh nationally in rush defense (98.3) and are familiar with the option from battling Air Force in the Moutain West.
3. The Utes are the hotter team, having won four of their last five. The Jackets lost four of six after a 6-0 start.
4. Utah offensive coordinator Norm Chow is Hawaii's new head coach, but will coach in the Sun Bowl.
5. Tech starting CB Louis Young (52 tackles, INT) has been suspended for disciplinary reasons. Nickel CB Jemea Thomas will replace him, with Jamal Golden or Michael Peterson filling in for Thomas.
TV: CBS
LINE: Georgia Tech opened at -2.5 and has been bet up to a field-goal favorite.
WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s is in the forecast for El Paso. Light winds will blow NNW at 4 mph.
ABOUT UTAH (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12, 5-7 ATS): Utah overcame a season-ending shoulder injury to starting QB Jordan Wynn on Oct. 1 as backup Jon Hays threw for 1,266 yards with nine TDs and seven interceptions. RB John White carried the offense, rushing for 1,404 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. After starting 3-4, the Utes reeled off four straight conference wins and had a chance to win the South Division, but they fell 17-14 to Colorado in the regular-season finale. Utah won the only previous meeting with Georgia Tech, 38-10 in the 2005 Emerald Bowl.
ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (8-4, 5-3 ACC, 5-6-1 ATS): The Jackets raced to a 6-0 start thanks in part to a soft schedule. Against tougher competition, the offense was not as explosive. Still, the unit features dangerous playmakers in junior A-back Orwin Smith (10.3 yards per carry) and junior WR Stephen Hill (30.2 yards per catch). QB Tevin Washington ran for 890 yards and 14 TDs, but completed just 46.7 percent of his throws. The defense did not improve in the second year under coordinator Al Groh, allowing 25.8 points (60th nationally). OLB Jeremiah Attaochu (6.0 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss) is one of the few Jackets who can disrupt an offense.
TRENDS:
* Utes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl games.
* Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 10-4 in Utes last 14 games overall.
* Under is 5-2 in Yellow Jackets last seven games overall.
PREDICTION: Utah 27, Georgia Tech 24. White will have a big day against a Tech defense that ranks 67th nationally against the run, limiting the Jackets’ offensive possessions.
UCLA Bruins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (-3, 47)
KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL STORYLINES:
1. With the firing of UCLA’s Rick Neuheisel and Illinois’ Ron Zook, this is a matchup of interim coaches. Offensive coordinator Mike Johnson leads the Bruins, while defensive coordinator Vic Koenning guides the Illini. UCLA has hired Jim Mora Jr. as coach, while Illinois has tabbed Tim Beckman, but neither will be on the sideline.
2. Illinois is the first team in FBS history to end a season 0-6 after starting 6-0. The Illini averaged 34.7 points in the first six games and 11 in the final six.
3. UCLA is the first team in a decade to reach a bowl with a losing record. To their credit, however, the Bruins put forth a solid effort in the Pac-12 championship game, falling 49-31 at Oregon.
4. UCLA linebacker Patrick Larimore has been ruled out of Saturday's bowl game against Illinois. Larimore, the team's leading tackler with 80 this season, underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb two weeks ago. Backup middle linebacker Isaiah Bowen also will miss the game after being declared academically ineligible. Jordan Zumwalt will start in place of Larimore.
5. The Bruins mustered only 13 sacks, one per game, and allowed an average of 43.5 points in road games.
TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com.
LINE: Illinois opened at -2.5 and has been bet to a field-goal favorite.
WEATHER: Cloudy skies are in the forecast for San Francisco. Game-time temperatures will be in the high 50s with winds blowing north at 6 mph.
ABOUT UCLA (6-7, 5-5 Pac-12, 5-8 ATS): Quarterback Kevin Prince had an up-and-down season but no one can quibble with the performance of wide receiver Nelson Rosario, who caught 61 balls for 1,106 yards, sixth-most in the Pac-12. UCLA features a dynamic running back duo of Johnathan Franklin (947 yards, five touchdowns) and Derrick Coleman (726, 11). But starting guard Alberto Sid won't make the trip after being ruled academically ineligible. Defense was a problem all season as the Bruins allowed 32.2 points per game (96th nationally).
ABOUT ILLINOIS (6-6, 2-6 Big Ten, 5-7 ATS): You can’t blame the defense for Illinois’ embarrassing finish. The unit ranked seventh nationally in total defense (291.8), fourth against the pass (159.1) and tied for 11th with 36 sacks. All-American defensive end Whitney Mercilus led the country with 14.5 sacks and led the Big Ten with 19.5 tackles for loss. As the offensive line deteriorated, so did the play of quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase. He averaged 122 passing yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions over the last half of the season. Illinois also took a hit when leading rusher Jason Ford (600 yards, seven touchdowns) was ruled academically ineligible.
TRENDS:
* Bruins are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
* Fighting Illini are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Fighting Illini's last six games overall.
* Under is 6-2 in Bruins' last eight games overall.
PREDICTION: UCLA 24, Illinois 20 – The Bruins showed heart in the Pac-12 championship game and feel better about themselves than the sad-sack Illini.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (-1.5, 47.5)
LIBERTY BOWL STORYLINES
1. Cincinnati senior QB Zach Collaros, who passed for 1,860 yards and 14 touchdowns with eight interceptions in nine games, appears likely to play despite breaking his right ankle against West Virginia on Nov. 12. Collaros has returned to practice and is doing all the drills, yet says he still feels pain in the injured ankle.
2. Vanderbilt first-year coach James Franklin restored hope in Nashville, tripling the win total to six and giving Georgia and Arkansas legitimate scares. This is only the fifth bowl game in Commodores history.
3. These teams have two common opponents. Both beat UConn at home and lost at Tennessee. Vanderbilt leads the all-time series against Cincinnati 4-3, but they haven’t played since 1994.
TV: ABC
LINE: Vanderbilt opened as high as a 3-point favorite but has been bet down as low as -1.5.
WEATHER: Clear skies are in the forecast for Memphis. Winds will blow south at 10 mph.
ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-3, 5-2 Big East, 7-5 ATS): Coach Butch Jones has agreed on a contract extension through 2017, eliminating any potential distraction. He’s only 13-11 in two seasons, but the team won a share of the Big East title this season. If Collaros is limited, look for the Bearcats to rely on RB Isaiah Pead, who ran for 1,110 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Senior DT Derek Wolfe (9.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss) leads a defense that led the nation with 3.6 sacks and 8.9 tackles for loss per game. The Bearcats are allowing 20.0 points per game, eight fewer than last year. They rank seventh nationally in rush defense, allowing 92.6 yards per game.
ABOUT VANDERBILT (6-6, 2-8 SEC, 9-3 ATS): Junior Zac Stacy averaged 6.2 yards per carry while running for 1,136 yards and 13 TDs. QB Jordan Rodgers, younger brother of Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers, took over as the starter in Week 5. He threw for nearly 1,500 yards with nine TDs and nine interceptions. WR Jordan Matthews ranks fourth in the SEC in receiving yards (722) and first in yards per catch (19.5). The defense kept Vandy in games against SEC powers. The Commodores allow 20.8 points and 324.6 yards per game, which ranks 19th nationally.
TRENDS:
* Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four Bowl games.
* Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 6-2 in Bearcats' last eight Bowl games.
* Over is 6-1 in Commodores' last seven games overall.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati 27, Vanderbilt 20: Collaros’ speedy return bodes well for the Bearcats’ offense, and the fifth-year senior goes out a winner.
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Auburn Tigers (-3, 49.5)
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL STORYLINES:
1. Auburn's fall from national champion to the middle of the pack in the SEC and the Chick-fil-A Bowl begins with the loss of star quarterback Cam Newton and the revolving door that was left under center. Barrett Trotter began the season as the starter, but was replaced by Clint Moseley down the stretch. Now Moseley is splitting snaps with freshman Kiehl Frazier, who could see some playing time in the bowl game.
2. Regardless of who's under center for the Tigers, he will have to face a stiff Virginia defense (29th nationally with 343.2 yards allowed per game) without sophomore running back Michael Dyer. The first Auburn player to top 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons, Dyer was suspended for violating team rules and will be replaced by Onterio McCalebb.
3. The Cavaliers have been balanced on offense, averaging 231.5 passing yards and 165.2 rushing yards, but they might need to rely more on running backs Perry Jones (883 yards) and Kevin Parks (nine touchdowns) against Auburn, which gives up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground.
4. The teams have met only twice, with each winning on the opponent's home field in 1997 and 1998. The Tigers won 28-17 at Virginia in the first meeting, and the Cavaliers returned the favor with a 19-0 win at Auburn the following season.
TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com, ESPN 3D.
LINE: Auburn opened at -1 and has been bet up to a field-goal favorite.
ABOUT VIRGINIA (8-4, 6-6 ATS): The Cavaliers have enjoyed a rapid resurgence under second-year coach Mike London, who was named the ACC Coach of the Year after leading the Cavaliers within one win of the ACC title game. They are in their first bowl game since the 2007 season and seeking their first bowl win since the 2005 season. The excitement of playing for the division title faded quickly in a 38-0 loss to rival Virginia Tech in the regular-season finale as sophomore quarterback Michael Rocco threw two interceptions and was sacked four times.
ABOUT AUBURN (7-5, 4-8 ATS): The Tigers' offense naturally dropped off considerably after losing Newton to the NFL, and Dyer and the running game became the focal point. Without Dyer, Auburn might struggle to move the ball. And that's not the only change affecting the Tigers. They have lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators since the end of the regular season, with defensive coordinator Ted Roof accepting the same position at Central Florida and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn taking the coaching job at Arkansas State. Malzahn will coach Auburn's offense in the bowl game, but head coach Gene Chizik will lead the defense.
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Tigers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine vs. ACC.
* Over is 7-1 in Cavaliers last eight Bowl games.
* Under is 8-1 in Tigers last nine bowl games.
PREDICTION: Virginia 27, Auburn 20 - The Cavaliers' defense should be able to slow down an offense that will lack firepower without Dyer.
Saturday's Bowl Previews
Car Care Bowl
6-6 Texas A&M was favored in every game but one this year (3-8 as favorite); they led by double digits in five of its six losses, so they fired their coach; Aggies are 1-5 this year in games decided by 7 or less points; they scored 29+ points in four of six losses- five of their six wins are by 16+ points. 6-6 Northwestern won four of last five games to get here; they lost five games in row at one point this season. Wildcats are 3-4 as underdog this year, 0-8 in bowl games since 1948, 0-3 under Fitzgerald, with two OT losses (3-0 vs spread, two of three vs Big X teams). Texas A&M lost its last five bowls, with four of the five by 17+ points, but four of those were vs SEC teams. Since 2006, double digit bowl favorites are 11-18 vs spread, 1-1 this year. Teams from Oklahoma’s league (Big X) won nine of last 12 bowls vs Big Dozen schools, but are just 4-8 vs spread in those games.
Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech scored 46.3 ppg in its 6-0 start, then scored 23.3 ppg in 2-4 finish; they’re 2-4-1 as a favorite this year. Jackets are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games overall. Utah won four of its last five games and also four of last five bowls (2-1 when dog), losing 26-3 to Boise State LY; their OC Chow is now head coach at Hawai’i. Georgia Tech lost its last five bowls despite being favored in three of last four- they scored total of 24 points in last three bowls- one-dimensional option is lot easier to prepare for when you have a month to do it. Pac-12 teams (Utah is one now) won five of last six visits here; underdogs covered six of last seven Sun Bowls. Seven of last eight Sun Bowls had total of 50+ (8th game ended 3-0). ACC bowl favorites are 9-15 since 2006, but 2-0 this year; Pac-12 bowl underdogs are 6-8 against the spread, 1-2 this year.
Fight HungerBowl
6-7 UCLA vs 6-6 Illinois . Both teams fired their coach. Terrific. Illini was 6-0 at one point, scoring 34.7 ppg, then lost last six games, scoring 11 ppg- they’re 2-7 as a favorite this year. Dogs covered nine of their 11 lined games. Bruins lost three of last four games, losing by 31-6/50-0/49-31- why are they even in a bowl? UCLA is 4-6 as an underdog this year; they’re 2-3 in last five bowls, losing this game 44-27 (-3) to Florida State in ’06. Illinois is in 3rd bowl in last decade, favored in bowl for first time since ’94- they won three of its last five bowls. Pac-12 teams are 2-2 in this bowl, where dogs covered five of last seven years. Big Dozen teams lost three of last four bowls against Pac-12 opponents. UCLA allowed 30+ points in all seven losses, less than 30 in all six wins. Illinois scored 66 points total in its last six games. Why isn’t 7-5 Western Kentucky in this game?
Liberty Bowl
Cincinnati QB Collaros broke his ankle during season; unclear if he'll be playing here. Vanderbilt as a bowl favorite? 2nd time ever; they lost to Air Force as 9-point favorite 29 years ago. Commodores are 2-1-1 all-time in bowls, winning last one 16-14 in ’08 Music City Bowl. Vandy played better once Jordan Rodgers (Aaron’s brother) became QB; they’re 4-1 as favorite this year, with only loss in OT at Tennessee. SEC bowl favorites are 18-11 vs spread since 2006. Cincinnati scored 23-21-3 points in its three losses, 25+ in all its wins; they went 7-5 despite being dog in only two games (1-1) all year. Underdogs covered last four Liberty Bowls and six of last seven; three of last four totals were 37 or less, as weather can be factor in Memphis. SEC teams won this game four of last five years, but Cincinnati’s proximity mean they should have some crowd support, too. Vandy has weak PK, so they go for it on 4th down a lot. Big East bowl underdogs are 3-5 vs spread since 2006.
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Virginia won four of last five games, with highlight a 14-13 win at Florida State (+17); Cavaliers are 3-2 as a dog this year, winning all three covers SU. UVa is in first bowl since ’07- they’re 3-2 in last five bowls, with last three all decided by 3 points (dogs 4-1 vs spread in their last five bowls)- they’re 2-3 vs bowl teams this year. Auburn went 3-4 in last seven games, allowing 38+ points in all four losses; they’re 1-3 as favorite this year, 4-5 SU vs bowl teams. Tigers won their last four bowls, all by exactly 3 points, with two of last three going OT. Auburn beat Clemson in OT in this game four years ago. Over last 5+ years, SEC teams are 6-4 vs ACC teams in bowl games, 5-5 vs spread. ACC bowl underdogs are 14-7 vs spread since ’06; SEC bowl favorites are 18-11. Auburn won national title LY; will they have same enthusiasm for playing in Chick-fil-A Bowl as Virginia does?
Chick-fil-A Bowl Preview
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com
Call me a traditionalist, but I will always think of this game as the “Peach Bowl.” That said, as far as bowl sponsors go, Chick-fil-A is a whole lot better sounding – and tasting – than Beef 'O' Brady's or some of the other sponsors out there. I have also always had a soft spot in my heart for this game because of its timing. At 7:30 p.m. on New Year’s Eve, the Peach Bowl has been a pre-party staple as sports fans geared up for the festivities at midnight. Hopefully the 2011 version will once again set the tone for a memorable New Year’s.
One thing is sure; the 2010-11 season was memorable for Auburn. The Tigers – or War Eagle, whichever you prefer – capped off a perfect 14-0 season by beating Oregon in the BCS title game for its second national championship. That win was Auburn’s fourth consecutive bowl victory, a streak many thought would come to an end this season. That’s because the Tigers lost a boat load of talent from their dominant squad last year, including Heisman Trophy winning junior quarterback Cam Newton. A 7-5 record seems like a pretty steep drop from 14-0, but a winning season and Peach Bowl invite is probably the most Auburn faithful could have hoped for.
Similarly, but from a completely different perspective, a Peach Bowl invite is also the most Virginia fans could have hoped for in 2011. The Cavaliers finished 2010 at 4-8, their third straight year without a bowl invite, and while progress was expected in coach Mike London’s 2nd season, 8-4 and a trip to Atlanta on New Year’s Eve is considered a best case ending no matter how this game plays out.
Both of these teams have had their fair share of highs and lows during the 2011 campaign. Auburn had quality wins against South Carolina and Florida but needed a major rally to pull out a victory against Utah State. Virginia turned heads with wins at Miami and Florida State but only after needing overtime to beat Idaho.
Since the regular season ended, there have been a number of changes at Auburn. Both coordinators have moved on as defensive coordinator Ted Roof has taken the same position at Central Florida and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has taken the head coaching job at Arkansas State. Roof won’t coach in this game – head coach Gene Chizik will call the defensive formations – but Malzahn will be on the sidelines to direct the Auburn attack one last time. How Malzahn’s attack will look should be interesting.
This much we know: Running back Michael Dyer will miss this game for violating team rules. Dyer burst on the scene as a true freshman last year, topping the 1,000 yard mark. The sophomore backed it up this year with 1,242 yards and 10 touchdowns, becoming the first Auburn player to eclipse the 1,000 yard rushing mark in both of his first two seasons. Without Dyer, Auburn will turn to Onterio McCalebb who has been productive in a reserve role this season.
The quarterback position could also look a little different as reports out of the Auburn camp have freshman Kiehl Frazier taking a number of snaps with the first team offense. Auburn started the season with Barrett Trotter under center but then turned to Clint Moseley in the 2nd half of the schedule - with mixed results. The thinking goes that Chizik may want to get an early look at Frazier in preparation for the 2012 season and considering Auburn enters this game with the 100th ranked offense in the nation, what does the coach have to lose?
Whichever quarterback goes will face a Virginia defense ranked 29th in the nation and one which has kept the Cavaliers alive in many games this year. That unit has a distinct advantage over Auburn’s defense, ranked 77th in the nation, giving up 29 points and 405 yards of offense per game. The Virginia offense, ranked 46th in the nation won’t overwhelm anyone but if quarterback Michael Rocco can play mistake free football and distribute the ball to a number of options – including RB Perry Jones – the Cavaliers can mount an efficient attack.
While the offensive and defensive stats seem to point to the Cavaliers, we know the SEC is top to bottom a much stronger football conference than the ACC. As much talent as they lost from last year, this is still an Auburn team with fresh memories of a 14-0 National Championship season while Virginia is looking for its first bowl win in six years.
Betting Notes:
Virginia was 6-6 ATS this season
The Cavaliers went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road this season. The lone loss came on Sept. 17 to North Carolina, 17-28
UVA was 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in non-conference action
The ‘under’ went 10-2 for Virginia this season
Auburn was 4-8 (33%) versus the number
Auburn won six of its seven games at home this season
The Tigers went 1-4 both SU and ATS on the road, the lone win coming at South Carolina (16-13).
The four losses were by double digits and against some quality opponents (Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia) too
Including last year’s win in the BCS Championship, Auburn is 4-0 in its last four bowls and the outcome was decided by three points each time.
Ironically, Virginia’s last three bowl games were decided by exactly three points as well. The Cavs are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS with the last postseason battle in 2007.
The ACC has won the last two Chick-fil-A Bowls, but the SEC was on a 4-0 run prior to that.
Saturday's Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
TEXAS A&M vs. NORTHWESTERN...Ags only 2-9 vs. line last 11 TY and have lost and failed to cover last five bowls. Pat Fitzgerald only 4-8 as dog since 2010 but NU 14-7 last 21 as dog away and 3-0 vs. line in bowls for Fitzgerald. Tech Trend: Northwestern, based on team and bowl trends.
UTAH vs. GEORGIA TECH...Kyle Whittingham was 5-0 SU and vs. line in bowls (including a win over a Chan Gailey GT team in 2005 Emerald Bowl) prior to LY vs. Boise in Las Vegas Bowl. Whittingham Ute teams 15-10 as dog since he took over in 2005. Utes overall 8-2 SU in bowls since 1999. Paul Johnson 0-3 SU and vs. line in bowls at GT, and Jackets no wins or covers their last six bowls. Tech only 1-6 vs. line last seven in 2011. Tech Trend: Utah, based on team and bowl trends.
UCLA vs. ILLINOIS...Rematch of some memorable past bowls, including Illinois 45-14 win in 1947 Rose Bowl, UCLA 45-9 in 1984 Rose Bowl, and UCLA 6-3 in 1991 Sun Bowl. Bruins also won another 6-3 yawner vs. Illinois in 2003, Karl Dorrell's first win as Bruins coach. Illini lost last six SU in 2011 although they are 7-4 vs. spread last eleven away from Champaign-Urbana since LY. Bruins have covered 5 of last 8 bowls and covered four of last six overall in 2011. Tech Trend: UCLA, based on recent Illinois fade.
CINCINNATI vs. VANDERBILT...Vandy making only second bowl appearance since 1982 (2008 was the other) and Dores were 9-3 vs. line for James Franklin TY, including 4-1 as chalk. Cincy no covers last four bowls and Bearcats just 1-4 against spread last five in 2011. Cincy 4-9 vs. number last 13 away from home as well (4-7 for Butch Jones). Tech Trend: Vandy, based on team and bowl trends.
VIRGINIA vs. AUBURN...Auburn very so-so 4-8 vs. line TY, and Tigers 6-14 vs. spread for Chizik in their last 20 games non-Cam Newton. Note Virginia "under" 8-2-1 in 2011. Cavs covered 4 of 5 bowls for Al Groh but haven't been to postseason since 2007. Tech Trend: Slight to Virginia and "under," based on Auburn non-Cam marks and "totals" trends.