Las Vegas Bowl Preview
Arizona State had season from hell, losing last four games (allowing 36.0 ppg) to finish 6-6, costing Erickson his job- they hired Graham as coach this week. ASU is playing in first bowl since '07- they're 2-3 in last five bowls, allowing 40-41-52 points in last three. Boise State is one missed FG away from playing in BCS bowl; they won this game 26-3 (-16) LY over Utah, are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 1-7-23 points. Boise's senior QB Moore has had great career, with 49-3 career record. Eight of last nine ASU games went over the total. MWC teams are 4-12 as non-conference favorites this year; Pac-12 underdogs are 4-8, 1-3 if getting double digits. MWC teams won four of last six bowls vs Pac-12 squads (1-1 as favorite). Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven Vegas Bowls. Over last five years, double digit bowl favorites are 7-10 vs spread.
Las Vegas Bowl Preview
By Jim Feist
Arizona State (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) has a lot of talent on a strong offense that averages 33.9 points and 310 yards passing behind 6-8 junior QB Brock Osweiler (24 TDs, 12 INTs) and 6-foot-4 senior WR Gerell Robinson (1,156 yds). However, they were huge disappointments, losing their final 4 games that cost Coach Dennis Erickson his job. The defense is a problem, allowing 26.3 ppg, and they were terrible in close games, losing 29-28 to UCLA, 17-14 to Illinois and 31-27 to rival Arizona. Throw in a 47-38 no-show home loss to Cal in the finale and you can see why they coach was axed. The Sun Devils are on an 18-6 run over the total.
Boise State (10-1 SU/4-7 ATS) has a super-talented team led by senior QB Kellen Moore (41 TDs, 7 INTs). The Broncos average 43 points, 183 yards rushing and 297 passing. Moore has a strong offensive line behind senior offensive tackle Nate Potte. However, the Broncos lost 36-35 at home to TCU, allowing a TD pass with a minute left. The usually great defense got smoked for 506 yards (473 passing). Another run to a BCS bowl game, gone. It was Boise State's first home loss in nearly six years. The Broncos are 41-17-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Las Vegas Bowl Betting Preview
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
Andrew Lange’s Betting Take: I was talking with Teddy Covers on Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast and asked him that if we eliminate all of the distractions and potential motivational issues for this matchup, is Boise State truly two touchdowns better than Arizona State on a neutral field? The clear answer was no, but unfortunately, as with most pre-Christmas bowl games, all of the "extra" stuff can have an enormous impact. The fact that ASU didn't represent the PAC-12 South in the conference title game speaks volumes to how much this team underachieved this year. Heading into November, the Sun Devils were 6-2 with road loses to Oregon and Illinois and wins over USC and at Utah. But with a 28-23 lead, they gave up a touchdown to UCLA with less than a minute remaining – a play that pretty much sent their season into a tailspin. And when things started to go bad, the first thing that went was ASU’s defense as Cal, Arizona and Washington State combined for 115 points the final three weeks of the season – all SU and ATS losses for the Sun Devils.
Boise's season is a little easier to analyze – they beat Georgia and lost to TCU on the Smurf Turf. The other 10 games were for the most part meaningless. And while ASU endured a late season meltdown, let's not forget that the Broncos haven't covered a game since October 15. In terms of mindset, I give Boise the edge. The disappointment is likely going to be there but this team features 25 seniors – all of which well schooled in the art of mental preparation and showing up to play on a weekly basis. The same cannot be said for ASU, who despite having just as much talent and speed as Boise has routinely treated bettors to lackluster performances and mid-game miscues (see: nation-high 78.8 penalty yards per game). Trusting a flighty team in an already precarious spot seems risky to this bettor.
Las Vegas Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Boise State Broncos (-14, 66)
MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS STORYLINES
1. No. 6 Boise State is back in this contest for the second straight year after once again missing out on a BCS bid. Arizona State is lucky to be anywhere after collapsing with four straight losses to end the regular season, which led to the firing of Dennis Erickson, who will coach in the bowl game.
2. Both teams have prolific quarterbacks. Boise State’s Kellen Moore (49-3) is the winningest quarterback in NCAA history and is second on the career touchdowns list with 140. Arizona State’s Brock Osweiler is a gunslinger who passed for 3,641 yards and 24 touchdowns.
3. Boise State’s pass defense ranks 25th nationally at 195.5 yards per game; Arizona State could try the long-ball route that worked well for TCU in its victory over the Broncos when the Horned Frogs had touchdown plays of 75, 74 and 69 yards. The Sun Devils rank 11th in passing offense (310.2), and Osweiler has a big-time target in Gerrell Robinson (64 receptions for 1,156 yards).
4. Boise State is 7-4 in bowl games, including last year’s 26-3 victory over Utah in Las Vegas. Arizona State is 12-11-1 and in its first bowl game since losing to Texas in the 2007 Holiday Bowl.
TV: ESPN
LINE: Boise State opened as low as -12.5 and has grown to as big as a 15-point favorite. The total has dropped from 66.5 to 65.5 at some books.
WEATHER: The sun should be out in Las Vegas, with temperatures in the low 40s. Winds will blow slightly, at 9 mph at Sam Boyd Stadium.
ABOUT BOISE STATE (11-1, 6-1 Mountain West, 4-8 ATS): The Broncos are back in Las Vegas due to the same formula that hurt them in 2010 – a weak schedule and a missed field goal. Boise State went 1-1 against the two tough teams on its schedule (Georgia and TCU) and lost to the Horned Frogs 36-35 when Dan Goodale missed a game-winning 39-yard field goal attempt. A year earlier, it was Kyle Brotzman missing two chip-shot kicks in a loss to Nevada. Moore passed for 3,507 yards and a school-record 41 touchdowns, and receiver Tyler Shoemaker caught a school-best 15 touchdowns. Doug Martin has rushed for 1,370 yards, fourth most in school history.
ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12, 3-8-1 ATS): The Sun Devils were cruising toward a berth in the Pac-12 title game when they were 6-2 in late October before the four-game November skid in which they allowed 144 points. The highlight of the season was a 43-22 shellacking of USC. Erickson is 31-30 in five seasons at Arizona State entering his finale. Running back Cameron Marshall (1,038) has 18 rushing touchdowns to tie the school record shared by Woody Green (1972) and Terry Battle (1996). Linebacker Vontaze Burfict (team-high five sacks) has been practicing on the second team after he finished the regular season poorly and reportedly refused to re-enter the season finale against California after being pulled.
TRENDS:
* Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.
* Under is 5-2 in Sun Devils last seven Bowl games.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Broncos last 10 non-conference games.
PREDICTION: Boise State 45, Arizona State 23 – No telling whether the Sun Devils will be inspired for Erickson’s final game or go through the motions, but Boise State will be looking for a rout in Moore’s final game.
Boise St. vs. Arizona St.
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
First of all, let’s be crystal clear that it’s an unfathomable shame that Boise State (11-1 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) is playing in a bowl game before Christmas. The Broncos, who are fourth in my Power Rankings and haven’t left the top five all year, own an incredible 72-6 record during Chris Petersen’s six-year tenure with a 7-1 mark against teams from BCS conferences.
Of those seven victories against BCS foes, only three of those games were played on the blue smurf turf at Bronco Stadium. In BSU’s only game against a BCS squad this year, it dominated Georgia from start to finish in a 35-21 win at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.
Nevertheless, Petersen’s team has been unfairly left out of the BCS bowl picture and will instead face Arizona State (6-6 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) in the Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
This ASU squad lost four in a row both SU and ATS down the stretch. The Sun Devils’ late-season collapse cost them a spot in the inaugural Pac-12 title game and resulted in a pink slip for fifth-year head coach Dennis Erickson, who has been granted the chance to coach his team in Sin City.
Most betting shops, as of early Wednesday evening, were listing Boise St. as a 14-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 66½. Gamblers can take ASU to win outright for a lucrative plus-450 payout (risk $100 to win $450).
BSU is mired in a 0-6 ATS slide but we should note that all of its spreads have been at least 16 during this slump. The Broncos have been favored by 30 points or more in four of those six spread setbacks.
Senior quarterback Kellen Moore will be wrapping up a sensational career in which he owns a 49-3 career record as a starter. This season Moore has connected on 73.9-percent of his passes for 3,507 yards with a 41/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Moore’s favorite target is senior wide receiver Tyler Shoemaker, who has 59 receptions for 959 yards and 15 touchdowns. Matt Miller has 57 catches for 644 yards and eight scores.
BSU senior RB Doug Martin has carried the load on the ground, rushing for a 1,148 yards and 15 TD while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Martin has also made 26 receptions and has a pair of TD grabs.
Arizona St. raced out to a 6-2 start and appeared poised to run away with the Pac-12’s South Division. However, the Sun Devils dropped four straight in which they were favored by at least six points, including back-to-back games at home vs. Arizona and Cal.
The offense wasn’t to blame. Brock Osweiler has passed for 3,641 yards with a 24/12 TD-INT ratio. Gerell Robinson had a team-high 64 receptions for 1,156 yards and six TDs, while RB Cameron Marshall rushed for 1,038 yards and 18 TDs.
ASU’s offense averages 33.9 PPG but its defense has given up 47, 31, 37 and 29 points during the team’s four-game losing streak.
Since 2006, Boise St. has won three of its five bowl games while going 4-1 ATS. The Broncos’ two losses have come by four combined points. ASU is going bowling for the first time since 2007 when it got trashed by Texas, 52-34.
The ‘over’ is 10-2 overall for ASU, 7-5 overall for BSU.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Ellis Johnson, who was hired as the new head coach at So. Miss earlier this week, will not coach for South Carolina as defensive coordinator in its bowl game vs. Nebraska.
Iowa RB Marcus Coker has been suspended for the team’s bowl game against Oklahoma. Coker rushed for 1,384 yards and 15 touchdowns for the Hawkeyes during the regular season.
Boise State offensive coordinator Brent Pease is a candidate for the Houston job vacted by Kevin Sumlin, who is the new head coach at Texas A&M.
With Sumlin joining the SEC, the league now has three African-American head coaches. James Franklin at Vandy and Joker Phillips at Kentucky are the others. Prior to those hirings, the only black head coaches in SEC history were Sylvester Croom (Mississippi St. from 2004-2008) and Charlie Strong (Florida for the 2004 Chick-Fil-A Bowl).