NCAAF Bowl Previews
Champs Sports Bowl
Underdogs are 29-13 vs spread in ACC’s last 42 bowls, with ACC clubs 7-15 as bowl favorite since ’06. Florida State won six of its last seven games, allowing 11.3 ppg, after three-game skid early in year, when they gave up 31.3 ppg; Seminoles are 6-3 as favorite this year, 12-7 in two years under Fisher. Notre Dame is 8-4 this year despite being underdog only once, a 28-14 (+7) loss to Stanford in last game; they’re 3-2 as dog under Kelly. Dogs covered this game five of last six years; Florida State’s 42-13 win over Wisconsin in 2008 was only cover; four of last six totals were 34 or less. Seminoles won last three bowls by 29-12-9 points, scoring 33.7 ppg- this is only second time they’ve been favored in last six bowls. Notre Dame won its last two bowls 49-21/35-17; this is first time in nine years they’re playing a bowl in Florida (lost 28-6 in '02 to NC State in Gator Bowl).
Alamo Bowl
Heady times for Baylor, with Heisman winner Griffin and great hoop team; Bears lost Texas Bowl 38-14 LY, their first bowl in 16 years- their last bowl win was ’92 Sun Bowl. Baylor is 5-2 as favorite this year, 12-6 in four years under Briles- they scored 53 ppg in last three games, but also allowed 38+ points in five of last seven games- average total in their eleven lined games was 82.0. Washington lost four of last six games, allowing 34+ points in all four losses- they failed to cover last three tries as an underdog, are 10-12 as a dog under Sarkisian. Big X teams won five of last six Alamo Bowls; favorites covered three of last four. Washington (+14) upset Nebraska in Holiday Bowl LY, its first bowl in eight years. Huskies covered last three bowls as an underdog. Baylor will have big edge in crowd support in San Antonio. Winning Heisman brings many distractions; how did Griffin/Baylor handle them?
Thursday's Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
NOTRE DAME vs. FLORIDA STATE...Teams haven't met since 2003. Noles have covered last three and six of last seven bowls (1-0 for Jimbo). Note Irish "under" 16-8-1 since Kelly arrived. Brian Kelly 3-1 SU but 1-3 vs. line in bowls. ND has won and covered last two bowls after dropping previous nine SU. Tech Trend: FSU and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
WASHINGTON vs. BAYLOR...Baylor 9-4 last 13 as chalk since early 2010. Bears haven't won a bowl game since Grant Teaff's last game in '92 Sun Bowl vs. Arizona, but have only played in two since (LY Texas Bowl and '94 Alamo Bowl)! Sarkisian only 6-8 as dog since 2010 as Huskies lost and failed to cover 3 of last 4 TY. Baylor "over" 10-1 TY and "over" 17-5-1 since 2010. Tech Trend: Baylor and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
What Bettors Need to Know: Notre Dame vs. Florida State
By Covers.com
Notre Dame vs. Florida State (-3.5, 46)
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL STORYLINES
1. Two storied programs working to get back to national relevance square off in the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando. Both No. 25 Florida State and Notre Dame started the season ranked in the Top 20 and had dreams of competing for a national championship, but those dreams came crashing down as they finished with identical 8-4 records.
2. Florida State’s junior cornerback Avis Commack and freshman linebacker Arrington Jenkins were both arrested on charges of theft in December. Commack allegedly stole a female student’s iPad on Dec. 6, while Jenkins – who is redshirting this season – allegedly stole a motorcycle from a residence close to his. In addition, Jermaine Thomas, the team’s second-leading rusher, is also ineligible for the bowl after failing to pass a class in the fall semester.
3. A little more than 18 years ago, these two schools faced each other as the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 teams on Nov. 13, 1993. Notre Dame won the game 31-24, but was upset by Boston College a week later and went on to watch the Seminoles win the national championship over Nebraska.
Line: Florida State opened as a 3-point favorite but that number had moved up to 3.5 by Wednesday evening. The total is holding around 46 after opening as high as 48.
ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (8-4, 5-3 ACC): The Seminoles – who have appeared in a national-best 30 consecutive bowl games — led the ACC and were fourth nationally in allowing only 15.2 points per game, including 9.4 over the final five games of the season. Opponents averaged an FBS-low 2.3 yards per carry on the ground against Florida State, which could make things difficult for Notre Dame running back Cierre Wood.
ABOUT NOTRE DAME (8-4): The Fighting Irish made strides in their second year under coach Brian Kelly, but they turned in their share of stinkers as well. Impressive wins over Michigan State and Pittsburgh were overshadowed by double-digit losses to USC and Stanford and a heartbreaking last-second defeat at Michigan in the second week of the season. Quarterback Tommy Rees was benched in the 28-14 loss to the Cardinal, but he’s expected to be back with the first team for the bowl game.
TRENDS:
- Notre Dame is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight bowl games.
- The over is 8-3 in Florida State's last 11 neutral site games.
- Florida State is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven overall and 6-0-1 against the spread in its last seven bowl games.
PREDICTION: Florida State 21, Notre Dame 13. Despite the off-field distractions, the Seminoles’ attacking defense will be too much for the Irish to handle.
Champs Sports Bowl Betting Preview
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
Andrew Lange's Betting Take: Even if we give Florida State a pass for the early season injury to quarterback EJ Manuel, the fact remains that despite all of the preseason hype, this is a team that didn't have what I would consider a truly marquee victory this season. Five of their eight wins came against UL-Monroe, Charleston Southern, Duke, Maryland and Boston College. Beyond that, wins over NC State, Miami (FL) and Florida are the only thing the Seminoles have to brag about. A team only has so much control over who they schedule but FSU had ample opportunity for a 10-win season and ACC Championship game berth but fell short in two very winnable games against lesser talented Wake Forest and Virginia. Notre Dame has more talent and ability than both of those squads. In fact, the Irish are arguably closer to Oklahoma and Clemson – two teams that beat FSU – than that of NC State, Miami, etc. I think the Irish have two things in their favor: One, they have the much better run game (1,992 yards, 5.01 ypc vs. 1,417 yards, 3.47 ypc). Second, ND was actually pretty good defensively. The high powered offenses of Michigan, USC and Stanford were able to move the ball, but against the rest of their schedule, the Irish allowed just over 315 ypg of total offense. The Seminoles still boast the better stop unit but the gap is smaller than most people think. And FSU can hardly be considered explosive on offense with just 57 points the last three games of the season. I'm a buyer with the underdog at +3.5.
What Bettors Need to Know: Washington vs. Baylor
By Covers.com
Washington vs. Baylor
ALAMO BOWL STORYLINES:
1. Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III may wrap up his college career when he leads No. 16 Baylor against Washington. Griffin has one year of eligibility left, but after leading the Bears back to prominence and setting 46 school records along the way, it seems likely this will be his final collegiate appearance.
2. It could be a perfect scenario for Griffin’s finale. Washington brings one of the worst pass defenses in the FBS into the matchup, ranking 116th out of 120 schools in allowing 283.8 passing yards per game.
3. The Bears haven’t appeared in consecutive bowl games since the 1991-92, and Baylor hasn’t won a bowl game since beating Arizona in the 1992 Sun Bowl. The Bears lost 38-14 to Illinois in last season’s Texas Bowl.
4. Washington will rely on quarterback Keith Price and running back Chris Polk to try to exploit Baylor's No. 114 overall defense. If Price and Polk can play well, this game may turn into a shootout.
LINE: Some oddsmakers had Baylor favored by as many as 10 points at the open, but the Bears now sit around -9. The total is holding steady around 78.
ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12 North): The Huskies were 5-1 at one time, but an ugly 65-21 loss to then-No. 8 Stanford on Oct. 22 sent Washington reeling. The Huskies lost four out of five, rebounding to beat Washington State 38-21 in the regular-season finale. Price’s 29 touchdown passes this season broke the school record. Polk enters the game with 1,341 rushing yards, 75 shy of his total from last season. Polk gained 177 yards as the Huskies upset Nebraska 19-7 in the Holiday Bowl last season.
ABOUT BAYLOR (9-3, 6-3 Big 12): As always, all conversation surrounding Baylor starts with Griffin, who has passed for 3,998 yards and 36 touchdowns this season against only six interceptions. He has also rushed for nine scores, but Griffin has plenty of help fueling a Baylor offense that ranks sixth nationally in average points scored (43.5). Running back Terrance Ganaway has rushed for 1,347 yards and 16 touchdowns, and receiver Kendall Wright caught 101 passes this season for 1,572 yards and 13 scores.
TRENDS:
- Washington is 11-5-1 against the spread in its last 17 games overall.
- Baylor is 4-1 against the spread in its last five.
- The over is 16-4-1 in Baylor's last 21 games.
PREDICTION: Baylor 45, Washington 34 - If this is Griffin's swan song, he’ll go out with a flourish as the Bears cap their first 10-win season since 1980.
Alamo Bowl Betting Preview
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
Andrew Lange's Betting Take: I made a lot of money on Baylor this season including its season finale blowout win over Texas. But my attraction towards the Bears was mostly when they were in the role of short favorite or underdog. It becomes tricky laying over a touchdown with a team that had a real difficult time stopping good offenses – especially on the road. In four true road games, Baylor allowed 30, 59, 58 and 36 and finished 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. At home, they had the big wins over Texas and Oklahoma but don't forget they slipped past Missouri by a field goal and opened the season with a two-point win over what ended up to be a good but far from great TCU squad.
Washington had a real difficult time hanging with upper class foes. In games against Nebraska, Stanford, Oregon and Southern Cal, the Huskies lost by margins of 23, 17, 44, and 13 (three of the four were on the road). The lone spread cover of the bunch was a 51-38 backdoor job in Lincoln way back in September. While I wouldn’t consider any of those teams elite defensively, they are much better at stopping the opposition than Baylor. Can't lay this type of a price with such a porous stop unit but also can't back an underdog that hasn't done its job when asked to step up in class.
Thursday's Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
There are a pair of bowl games to wager on Thursday, beginning with the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando. That’s where Florida State (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) will take on Notre Dame at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Most books are listing the Seminoles as 3½-point favorites with the total in the 46-47 range. Gamblers can take Notre Dame (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) on the money line for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
Jimbo Fisher’s team closed the regular season by winning six of its last seven games, going 5-2 ATS in the process. FSU won a 21-7 decision at Florida as a three-point road favorite in its last outing on Nov. 26. The ‘Noles intercepted four UF passes, including a pick-six by Terrance Parks that put the game on ice early in the fourth quarter.
After starting the season 0-2 with a pair of heartbreaking defeats, Notre Dame won eight of nine games before losing 28-14 at Stanford in the regular-season finale. The Irish failed to hook up its backers as seven-point underdogs against the Cardinal.
Tommy Rees was yanked at Stanford for his ineffective play. Rees completed just 6-of-13 passes for 60 yards with an interception. For the season, Rees, who took the starting job from Dayne Crist in September, has connected on 65.9-percent of his throws for 2,708 yards with a 19/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Andrew Hendrix relieved Rees at Stanford, completing 11-of-24 passes for 192 yards with one TD pass and one interception. Nevertheless, Rees will be back in the starting lineup Thursday.
FSU had grandiose goals for the 2011 campaign, but those were shot by three straight losses from Sept. 17 to Oct. 8. The ‘Noles lost a 23-13 decision at home to Oklahoma and then fell 35-30 at Clemson the following week with starting QB E.J. Manuel injured.
Manuel returned in Week 5 at Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons captured a 35-30 upset victory as 10½-point home underdogs. Manuel had an up-and-down year, throwing for 2,417 yards with a 16/8 TD-INT ratio and four rushing TDs.
Injuries have prevented FSU from establishing a go-to RB this year. Chris Thompson and Jermaine Thomaas went down with season-enders and true freshman Devonta Freeman tallied a team-high 531 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 5.0 yards-per-carry average.
Another freshman developed into FSU’s best wide receiver, as Rashad Greene hauled in 33 receptions for 497 yards and six TDs.
FSU has been a single-digit favorite just once this year in its aforementioned win at The Swamp. Meanwhile, Notre Dame failed to cover in its lone underdog spot at Stanford.
Dating back to 1993, FSU has won three of five head-to-head meetings against Notre Dame. However, the Irish are 4-1 ATS in those five encounters.
The second game of Thursday’s doubleheader will pit Baylor (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) against Washington at the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio.
Robert Griffin III won the Heisman Trophy thanks to his brilliant play all season, particularly during a five-game winning streak to close the regular season. ‘RG3’ had a slew of Heisman moments in leading the Bears to a 45-38 upset win over Oklahoma that ended the Sooners’ national-title hopes.
Griffin threw a pair of TD passes and ran for two more scores in a 48-24 blowout win over Texas in the regular-season finale. For the season, RG3 has completed 72.4-percent of his passes for 3,998 yards with a 36/6 TD-INT ratio. He’s also rushed for 655 yards and nine TDs.
RG3’s favorite target is All-Big-12 selection Kendall Wright, who finished the regular season with 101 receptions for 1,572 yards and 13 TDs. RB Terrance Ganaway rushed for a team-high 1,338 yards and 16 TDs.
Baylor’s defense is an issue, however. The Bears are surrendering 35.7 points per game, but they fortunately score at a 43.5 PPG clip.
Most books have installed Baylor as a 9½-point favorite with a total of 79. Washington (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) is plus-280 on the money line (risk $100 to win $280).
Art Briles’s team has posted a 2-1 spread record in three games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’ As for the Huskies, they went 2-3 versus the number in five games as underdogs.
Washington sophomore QB Keith Price did a solid job replacing Jake Locker, who was a four-year starter before getting drafted by the Titans. Price threw 29 passes compared to 11 interceptions in his first year as the starter.
UW junior RB Chris Polk eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark again in 2011, rushing for 1,341 and 11 TDs. Polk also had 29 catches for 324 yards and four TDs.
The ‘over’ is 9-1-1 overall for Baylor. The ‘over’ went 6-5-1 overall for UW, but the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in its last four outings.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
FSU has been to 30 straight bowl games, the nation’s longest active streak.
Both of Baylor’s starting cornerbacks, Chance Casey and Tyler Stephenson are ‘questionable’ with ankle injuries.
What is the job that Boise State head coach Chris Petersen will eventually leave Idaho for? Maybe, just maybe, there isn’t one.
Virginia second-year head coach Mike London has the school in its first bowl game since 2007. The Cavaliers will face Auburn as three-point underdogs in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve. London is committed to UVA’s future and is proving as much by donating $225,000 of his own money to help fund a new practice facility for the program.