Sugar Bowl Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Teddy Covers’ Betting Take: It’s been another rough bowl season for the Big Ten. Despite that fact, Michigan is favored in its Sugar Bowl matchup against Virginia Tech. An opener of -1 has been bet up to -3 in many locations – the books haven’t seen much Hokies money yet, although that could change following today’s 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS Big Ten performance (Wisconsin still pending).
Michigan was a complete no-show for its bowl game last year; an embarrassing 52-14 loss at the hands of a relatively mediocre Mississippi State squad. That’s nothing new or different for the Wolverines in recent years. Michigan’s only bowl victory in its last six tries came in Lloyd Carr’s last game, an emotional 41-35 upset victory over the Florida Gators.
The first season of the Brady Hoke era was far better for the Wolverines than any season they’ve had since Carr’s retirement, wiping away the stink of the ill-fated Rich Rodriguez era. Hoke earned Big Ten Coach of the Year honors in large part due to a vastly improved defense. Under the tutelage of first year defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, Michigan’s defense improved from 110th out of 120 FBS teams last year to 18th this year; a remarkable turnaround. Michigan also led the conference in forced turnovers (27).
Michigan’s offense is led by star dual-threat quarterback Denard Robinson; the type of QB that Virginia Tech’s defense is used to facing in practice every day. Frank Beamer’s dual-threat quarterback Logan Thomas isn’t as experienced as Robinson, but he’s much bigger, a 250 pounder with the ability to break tackles in the open field as well as finding open receivers.
The ACC has struggled during bowl season with much less fanfare than the Big Ten in recent years. Already this year we’ve seen ACC teams like North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Virginia all come up short on the scoreboard against mid-tier opposition. It’s worth noting that the Hokies beat every ACC team on their schedule except one – Clemson – a team that positively annihilated them twice. The Hokies had their two-game bowl winning streak snapped with an ugly loss of their own last year, a humiliating 40-12 defeat at the hands of Stanford.
It’s hard to trust teams from either the Big Ten or the ACC right now. Both Michigan and Virginia Tech probably overachieved during the regular season, in large part thanks to positive turnover differentials and solid defenses. And both teams were blown out in their bowl games last year, looking for redemption in BCS Bowl action on Wednesday. Expect a competitive game, right through the final gun.
Tuesday's Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
MICHIGAN vs. VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer only 4-6 vs. spread last ten bowls and has struggled vs. ranked teams. Beamer is 8-5 as a dog since 2005, but was only 4-9 against number this season. Michigan 5-14 vs. line away from Ann Arbor since 2008 but most of that was Rodriguez' doing, 2-2 in role for Hoke TY. Wolverines 1-3 vs. line last four bowls and 2-6 SU last eight bowls dating to the Lloyd Carr years. Michigan 7-4 vs. spread TY for Hoke, who is 16-8 vs. line last two years at SDSU & Michigan. Tech Trend: Slight to Michigan, based on Brady Hoke marks.
What Bettors Need to Know: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech
By Covers.com
Michigan Wolverines vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (3, 51)
SUGAR BOWL STORYLINES
1. This will be the first BCS bowl game for No. 12 Michigan since the 2007 Rose Bowl, when it lost to USC. Virginia Tech is making its fourth BCS bowl appearance in five years.
2. Michigan and Virginia Tech rank seventh and eighth nationally in scoring defense, allowing 17.17 and 17.23 points per game respectively.
3. The schools, which are meeting for the first time, both sport losing bowl records. Michigan is 19-21 all-time, losing five of its last six bowl games, while Virginia Tech is 9-15. The Hokies lost to Stanford, 40-12, in the Orange Bowl last season.
4. Virginia Tech kicker Tyler Weiss was sent home for violating a team curfew prior to the Hokies' Sugar Bowl game against Michigan. Weiss failed to be present for a 1 a.m. bed check in New Orleans on Thursday, team spokesman Bryan Johnston said. Weiss was scheduled to play in the contest after kicker Cody Journell was arrested last week for his alleged involvement in a home invasion. Justin Myer, the team's kickoff specialist, is expected to handle field goal attempts. He has missed his only two field goal tries this season.
LINE: The Sugar Bowl's line has been all over the place. Some books opened with Virginia Tech favored by a point, but steady action on the Wolverines now has Michigan set at -3 at most shops with a few -2.5's littering the board as of Monday evening. The total is holding at 51 points.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The Wolverines owe much of this year's revival to an improved, disruptive defense that ranks among the nation's best in several categories. Senior LB Brandon Herron has two of the unit's three touchdowns, returning a fumble and an interception for scores. Junior QB Denard Robinson (1,163 yards rushing, 16 TD) and sophomore RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (1,011 yards, 9 TD) have excelled behind an offensive line that features All-American C David Molk, the Rimington Trophy winner.
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (11-2, 7-1 ACC): The Hokies, who have been perfect this season against teams not named Clemson, rank just 12th nationally in total yardage allowed (313.9). Junior RB David Wilson is the headliner on offense, ranking 12th nationally with 1,627 yards rushing (125.2 per game) and scoring 10 total touchdowns. Junior QB Logan Thomas has thrown for 2,799 yards and 19 touchdowns while rushing for 416 yards and 10 more scores.
TRENDS:
- The over is 10-1 in Michigan's last 11 bowl games.
- Virginia Tech is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 overall.
- Michigan is 8-20 against the spread in its last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
PREDICTION: Michigan 20, Virginia Tech 14 -- Look for the dynamic Robinson to give the Wolverines a slight edge and cap Brady Hoke's first year as head coach in fine fashion.
Va. Tech vs. Michigan
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
With the Big Ten in dire need of a bowl victory to improve its rapidly diminishing football image, Michigan (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) will take on Virginia Tech in tonight’s Sugar Bowl at the Superdome in New Orleans.
As of early this morning, most books were listing the Wolverines as three-point favorites with a total of 51. Gamblers can take Va. Tech (11-2 SU, 4-9 ATS) to win outright for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130).
Brady Hoke helped the Michigan faithful forget about the disastrous three-year tenure of Rich Rodriguez this season, leading the school back to a BCS game for the first time since 2006. The Wolverines started the season 6-0, only to lose two of their next three before finishing the regular season with three straight victories.
Michigan capped the year with a 40-34 win over arch-rival Ohio St., although it failed to cover the spread as an 8½-point home ‘chalk.’ Denard Robinson enjoyed a spectacular performance against the Buckeyes, completing 14-of-17 passes for 167 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Robinson also rushed 20 times for 176 yards and a pair of scores.
Va. Tech saw its seven-game winning streak snapped when it got hammered 38-10 by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. The Hokies lost outright as seven-point favorites, getting outscored 28-0 in the second half. They won all 10 of their games played against teams not named Clemson.
With the arrival of Hoke, R-Rod’s spread offense was tossed in favor of a pro-style attack directed by veteran offensive coordinator Al Borges, who had held the same post at previous stops with UCLA, Indiana, Auburn and San Diego St. There were plenty of doubts as to how Robinson’s talents would be incorporated into a different system.
The results worked just fine, although Robinson’s passing skills are still developing. For the season, he completed 56.1-percent of his throws for 2,056 yards with an 18/14 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Robinson’s scrambling ability remains his strongest asset, as evidenced by 1,163 rushing yards and 16 TDs while averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
Fitzgerald Toussaint emerged as Michigan’s second-leading rusher behind Robinson, finishing with 1,011 yards, nine rushing TDs and a 5.8 YPC average. Robinson’s favorite target is senior WR Junior Hemingway, who has 32 catches for 636 yards and two TDs.
Va. Tech’s Logan Thomas steadily improved in his first year as the starting QB. The signal caller has the body of a tight end, but he nonetheless completed 59.2-percent of his throws for 2,799 yards with a 19/9 TD-INT ratio. Thomas also rushed for 402 yards and 10 TDs.
But the Hokies’ offense is mostly about junior RB David Wilson, who has rushed for 1,631 yards and nine TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC. Thomas has a pair of reliable senior WRs in Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale. This duo combined to make 109 catches for 1,518 yards and eight TDs.
Michigan has been a single-digit favorite four times this year, going 2-2 ATS. As for the Hokies, they are underdogs for the first time since being thumped by Stanford in last year’s Orange Bowl.
The ‘under’ is 8-4-1 overall for the Hokies, cashing in each of their last three games. The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Wolverines, but they saw the ‘over’ hit in their last two outings of the regular season.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
This is Va. Tech’s fourth BSC game in the last five years.
The Hokies will be without their top two place-kickers in the Sugar Bowl. Cody Journell and Tyler Weiss are both suspended. Journell made 43 extra points and 14 field goals during the regular season.
With Ohio State’s win over Arkansas in last year’s Sugar Bowl stripped from the record books, coupled with Monday’s Gator Bowl loss to Florida, the Buckeyes are now 0-10 against SEC teams in bowl games.
West Virginia will be without its leading rusher, true freshman Dustin Garrison, when it faces Clemson in Wednesday’s Orange Bowl. Garrison rushed for 742 yards and six TDs, including a 291-yard effort in a win over Bowling Green. The Mountaineers are three-point underdogs against the Tigers.
Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks won 11 games for the first time in school history by thumping Nebraska 30-13 in Monday's Capital One Bowl. They covered the spread as three-point favorites, ending a three-game losing streak in bowl games. Even with senior QB Stephen Garcia being dismissed from the team and star RB Marcus Lattimore going down with a torn ACL, South Carolina did what had never been done in the program's 118-year history. As if there was ever a doubt, it's clear The Head Ball Coach is still one of the best in the business.
According to this report from Robbie Andreu of the Gainesville Sun, Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer could be a candidate for the same position at Florida. Schottenheimer played at UF from 1993-1996 and was Danny Wuerffel's back-up on the 1996 national championship squad.
Even though Vanderbilt's season ended on a downer in a 31-24 loss to Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl, there are more signs that head coach James Franklin is 'the real deal.' Rivals.com currently has the Commodores listed at No. 22 in the website's 2012 recruiting rankings. Vandy already has verbal committments from four 4-star players. To provide some context on what an accomplishment this is, consider this: Since 2002, Vandy has signed just three 4-star players. Two of those guys never made it to campus, however, due to tragic circumstances. Marcus Dixon, who was in the 2003 class and currently plays for the Jets, was arrested in the infamous case that earned national headlines after a feature on HBO's Real Sports. Rajaan Bennett, a 4-star RB in the '09 class, was murdered in his own home. John Stokes ('07) is the only 4-star recruit that has put on a Vandy uniform in the last decade but, barring de-committments before Signing Day, the Commdores will have four 4-star players on the roster in 2012.
Sugar Bowl Preview
Virginia Tech is 2-3 in last five bowls, allowing 7-14 in wins, 31.7 ppg in losses; Hokies won seven of last eight games, are underdog for first time this season. Michigan was held to 14-16 points in its two losses; they're 5-3 as favorites this year; Wolverines lost four of last five bowl games, allowing 32+ points in all five games (average total, 65.4); Hoke was 2-1 in bowl games at Ball State/ San Diego State, with favorites covering all three games. Since 2006, ACC-Big Dozen teams have met five times in bowls, with ACC teams winning three of five games. Big Dozen teams are 3-5 so far this bowl season, with favorites covering seven of the eight games (2-0 as favorites)- they're 5-2 as bowl faves since '07. ACC bowl underdogs are 15-8 since '06, 1-2 this year. Favorites covered four of last five Sugar Bowls; this is first time in 12 years there isn't an SEC team in this game.