NCAAF Preview
Beef O'Brady's Bowl
Conference USA teams lost this bowl last three years, but they were up against Big East teams; now Sun Belt's Florida International comes east from Miami to play in its second bowl- they beat Toledo 34-32 in LY's Little Caeser's Bowl. Florida International won its last three games, all by 11+ points- they beat UCF of Conference USA 17-10 in September, a team Marshall lost to 16-6. Thundering Herd lost five games by 20+ points this year, is still bowling, thanks to 23-22 win over Memphis, in game Marshall was -6 in turnovers. Herd has a freshman QB while the Panthers have senior Carroll, who started his career at Mississippi State. Over last five years, Sun Belt teams are 3-1 in bowls vs C-USA teams, 6-4 overall; C-USA teams are 11-19 in last 30 bowl games. Average total in first three editions of this bowl was 61.0.
Early Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. MARSHALL...FIU very streaky vs. spread this season, opened and closed with three straight covers but lost six straight spread decisions in between. Golden panthers still 7-4 against points last 11 away from home including Little Caesar's Bowl win LY vs. Toledo. Doc Holliday just 2-4 vs. line away this season and 3-9 in role since taking over Herd in 2010. Tech Trend: FIU, based on team trends.
What Bettors Need to Know: FIU vs. Marshall
By Covers.com
Florida International vs. Marshall (+4, 48)
BEEF ‘O’BRADY’S BOWL STORYLINES
1. Making consecutive bowl appearances for the first time in school history, Florida International comes in after winning a school-record eight games. The Golden Panthers closed the season with four victories in their final five games.
2. Marshall needed overtime to beat East Carolina in its regular-season finale, 34-27, and become bowl eligible. The Thundering Herd won three of their final four games and return to a bowl after a one-year absence, but gave up 30.2 points per contest.
3. The Golden Panthers will have their hands full with Marshall defensive end Vinny Curry, who recorded 21.5 tackles for loss this season (second in the nation). The 6-foot-4 senior forced six fumbles, tied for second in the nation, and his 11 sacks tied for fifth in the country.
4. Marshall averaged just 22 points per game, ranking 98th in the nation, but scored 57 points in its final two contests in wins over Memphis and East Carolina. The Thundering Herd will be challenged by a FIU defense that ranked 16th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 19.4 points.
TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com LINE: Florida International –4.
ABOUT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (8-4, 5-3 Sun Belt Conference): The Golden Panthers did their best work early in the season (winning their first three games) and late (winning their final three contests). Senior quarterback Wesley Carroll threw just four interceptions in 303 passing attempts, finishing with 2,224 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. FIU scored 27 points or more in five of its eight victories, and averaged 33.3 points during its current three-game winning streak.
ABOUT MARSHALL (6-6, 5-3 Conference USA): Facing the 15th-toughest schedule in the nation, the Thundering Herd set a school record by winning five conference games, placing second in the C-USA East Division. Marshall lost three of its first four games before upsetting Louisville 17-13 on Oct. 1. Freshman quarterback Rakeem Cato passed for 341 yards in the victory over East Carolina, but threw 10 interceptions this season. Five of Marshall’s six victories were by seven points or less.
TRENDS:
The Golden Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win but 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.
Thundering Herd are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
The under is 6-1-1 in Golden Panthers' last 8 games overall while the over is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.
LINE MOVEMENT:
The books opened Florida International as 4.5-point chalk and there hasn't been much movement. The line did get bet down to 3.5 at couple shops but it didn't stay there for long. Most sportsbooks have FIU listed as a 4-point favorite.
The total opened at 49.5 and even 50 at a few locations. The number has been bet down to 48 pretty much across the board.
PREDICTION: Florida International 27, Marshall 16 – Curry is a major defensive force, but Carroll’s experience will make the difference for the Golden Panthers.
Marshall vs. Florida International
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Mario Cristobal inherited a 0-12 team when he took over the Florida International football program from Don Strock in 2007. Strock had been the school’s first head coach when it created a team in 2002.
The Golden Panthers went 1-11 in Cristobal’s first year, 5-7 in 2008 and 3-9 in ’09. They turned the corner last year, going 6-6 to garner their first postseason bid. In the Little Caesar’s Bowl, Florida International (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) beat Toledo 34-32 as a 1 ½-point underdog.
With the success of an eight-win campaign, interest in Cristobal has naturally heated up. He has interviewed with Pittsburgh and is expected to get an offer Wednesday, so this distraction is hovering over the Panthers.
This development has not impacted the line for tonight’s Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. As of early this morning, most betting shops were listing FIU as a four-point favorite over Marshall from out of Conference USA.
The total was 48½ at most spots. Gamblers can take the Thundering Herd to win outright for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).
Cristobal’s potential exit isn’t a given by any means. He played at the University of Miami and South Florida has been his home for a long time. The reality is FIU can’t compete financially with Pitt but if it can step up a decent amount (remember, Isaiah Thomas is the hoops coach), Cristobal might stay and wait it out for a better opportunity in the future.
FIU jumped out to a 3-0 start thanks to impressive wins at Louisville (24-17) and vs. Central Florida (17-10), but then it lost back-to-back games as home favorites vs. Louisiana (36-31) and Duke (31-27). The losses to the Ragin’ Cajuns and the Blue Devils began a 0-6 ATS slide.
However, FIU comes to St. Pete with a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The Panthers closed the regular season with a 31-18 win at Middle Tennessee as 7 ½-point road favorites.
FIU is led by senior quarterback Wesley Carroll, a transfer from Mississippi State. Carroll has completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 2,224 yards with a 14/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target is senior wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who has a team-high 64 receptions for 950 yards and seven touchdowns.
Hilton has amassed 1,756 all-purpose yards and is a serious threat in the return game. Junior WR Wayne Times has 51 catches for 531 yards and a pair of TDs. The ground game features sophomore RB Kedrick Rhodes, who rushed for 1,121 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.0 yards per carry during the regular season.
Marshall (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) had to win three of its last four games to earn bowl eligibility. The Herd beat East Carolina 34-27 in overtime in its regular-season finale as a one-point home favorite.
Freshman QB Rakeem Cato was the catalyst, connecting on 23-of-29 throws for 341 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Travon Van and Tron Anderson both had a rushing touchdown with Martinez’s one-yard plunge putting Marshall ahead to stay in the extra session.
Cato has a 13/10 TD-INT ratio. Junior Aaron Dobson is one of C-USA’s top wideouts, hauling in 10 TD passes.
Marshall has the Defensive Player of the Year in C-USA, senior DE Vinny Curry, who has 11 sacks, 21.5 tackles for losses, six forced fumbles and three blocked kicks. This unit also has C-USA first-teamer Omar Brown, a senior safety who made four interceptions in 2011.
Doc Holliday’s team has been an underdog eight times, going 4-3-1 ATS with a pair of outright victories. The season opener at West Va. was a ‘no play’ since weather cancelled the game before 55 minutes was played.
FIU has been a single-digit favorite four times, posting a 1-3 spread record.
The ‘under’ is 8-3-1 overall for FIU, cashing at a 6-1 clip in its last seven games. The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Marshall, but the ‘over’ has hit in four of its last five outings.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
FIU’s campus in Miami is about a four-hour drive to St. Pete.
While Huntington, WV., is a long way from St. Pete, Holliday is notorious for his ability to recruit in the Sunshine State. The Herd has plenty of players from Florida so I would warn bettors not to think of FIU as the team that’ll enjoy a major advantage in terms of crowd support.
While most had turned away by the time Wyoming was on its last possession at the end of a blowout loss against Temple in the New Mexico Bowl this past Saturday, there was plenty of pending action at stake with the Cowboys in Owls’ territory on the final drive. Trailing Temple by a 37-7 score, Wyoming backers for second-half wagers still had a chance and the total (closed 51 at most books) was yet to be decided. With three seconds remaining, QB Brett Smith found Kody Sutton on a screen pass and the RB darted 14 yards into the end zone. This made it a 37-13 score for 50 combined points. Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen opted to go for two to put all bets on the total at stake on one play. The first conversion try was an incomplete pass but a flag for pass interference gave the Cowboys another shot. On the next attempt, Smith ran three yards for the score to make it a 37-15 final and give ‘over’ backers a winner. Also, with Temple leading 28-7 at halftime, it was made a three-point ‘chalk’ for halftime plays. This was an adjusted number of Wyoming plus-24 which became a winner thanks to Sutton’s TD and the subsequent conversion.
The total came down to the wire in Saturday night’s New Orleans Bowl, too. This number closed at 59½. Therefore, this wager was on the line when Ragin’ Cajuns place-kicker Brett Baer set up for a 50-yard field goal on the game’s final play. With Louisiana trailing San Diego St. by a 30-29 score, the ‘under’ would cash with a miss and the ‘over’ would hit if Baer came through. Baer did exactly that to lift the Ragin’ Cajuns to a 34-32 triumph in the school’s first-ever bowl game.
South Carolina defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson has been named as the new head coach at Southern Miss, replacing Larry Fedora, who bolted for the North Carolina job after a successful four-year tenure with the Golden Eagles. This is a big loss for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks, who have had outstanding defenses during Johnson’s rein as DC.