Little Caesars Bowl Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Teddy Covers’ Betting Take: Western Michigan has not stepped up in class well at any point during the Bill Cubit era. The Broncos entered the season in the midst of an 0-5 SU and ATS run against BCS conference competition. They did knock off one BCS foe this year – UConn – but the Huskies were not a bowl team and they scored 31points against Western Michigan’s defense, just shy of their season high. The Broncos did not fare well against other bowl teams. They gave up 66 points in a loss to Toledo; 51 in a loss to Northern Illinois. Michigan and Illinois beat the Broncos by a combined margin of 57-30. Starting quarterback Alex Carder is expected to be fully healthy for this bowl game after missing time following a late season shoulder injury and wide receiver Jordan White caught a whopping 128 passes this year. Simply put, Western can score plenty of points. But their defense, like so many in the MAC, is slow and undersized, vulnerable to a balanced Purdue attack.
The Boilermakers haven’t been bowling since their last trip to Detroit back in 2007; a wild 51-48 overtime win over Central Michigan. But after three straight losing campaigns, Purdue stole three late season victories – including two over bowl bound Ohio State and Illinois – to earn the first bid of the Danny Hope era. Purdue has some potentially significant suspension and injury issues. The team’s leading tackler, LB Dwayne Beckford, has been suspended following a DUI arrest. Two other defensive starters, LB Will Lucas and DE Gerald Gooden, were both arrested earlier this week for removing the wheel locks from their cars after they had been clamped for unpaid parking tickets. Their punishment has not yet been announced. Leading rusher Ralph Bolden is out with a torn ACL, leaving Purdue as a short-handed favorite for Tuesday’s showdown.
What Bettors Need to Know: Western Michigan vs. Purdue
By Covers.com
Western Michigan vs. Purdue (-2.5, 60)
LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES
1. Which team can continue its late-season momentum? Purdue won two of its last three games, including 26-23 victory over Ohio State. Western Michigan won three of its last four and owns a victory over UConn of the Big East.
2. Motivation will be crucial. While some schools from a major conference like Purdue might suffer a mental letdown against an opponent from a non-BCS conference, that’s not likely to happen with the Boilermakers, who haven’t been to a bowl game since 2007. Purdue has won both previous meetings, but both were close games: 28-13 in 1993 and 28-24 in 2002.
3. Both teams are in good shape if the decision comes down to a late kick. Purdue’s Carson Wiggs has made 16 of 21 field goals and 35 of 36 extra points. Wiggs also kicked the five longest field goals in school history. Western Michigan’s John Potter has made 15 of 21 field goals and had made all 54 extra point attempts.
4. Western Michigan will be trying to reverse a trend. Purdue is 38-9-1 against MAC teams.
LINE: Purdue -2.5. No line movement to speak of in this bowl game. The Boilermakers have been 2-point faves since the line opened and the total is still sitting at 60.
ABOUT PURDUE (6-6, 4-4 Big Ten): The Boilermakers average 371.4 yards of offense, but aren’t particularly strong in any aspect, ranking 79th in the nation. Junior QB Caleb TerBush has thrown for 1,804 yards and 12 touchdowns and the running game, which ranks 39th in the nation, features Ralph Bolden (674 yards, six TDs) and Akeem Shavers (370 yards, six TDs). Justin Siler (45 catches, one TD) and Antavian Edison (43 catches, three TDs) are the top receivers. The defense is led by fifth-year senior Joe Holland, who has started 47 of 48 possible games with 315 career tackles, and junior tackle Kawann Short, who has posted career bests in tackles (53), tackles for loss (17) and sacks (6.5). Keep an eye on kick returner Raheem Mostert, who led the Big Ten with a 31-yard average.
ABOUT WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5, 5-3 Mid-American Conference): The Broncos were the No. 1 passing team in the MAC, averaging 328 yards per game. QB Alex Carder has thrown for 3,434 yards and 28 touchdowns. His favorite target is senior Jordan White, a consensus All-American who has 127 receptions (13.0 yard average) with 16 TDs. White also led the MAC with a 13.1-yard punt return average. Chleb Ravenell also has 59 catches and eight TDs. Western Michigan’s defense is led by Drew Nowak, a third-team All-American who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year; he had 83 tackles, 20 tackles for loss (fourth in the NCAA), 8.5 sacks, recovered two fumbles and blocked two kicks.
TRENDS: The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall but 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Purdue is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite and 0-4 in it last four bowl games.
PREDICTION: Western Michigan 31, Purdue 28 – The Broncos win this one through the air and receiver Jordan White becomes part of the national discussion.
Belk Bowl Betting Preview
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
Erin Rynning's Betting Take: Positive momentum has been a popular theme in handicapping tonight’s Belk Bowl. After a slow start, both Louisville and NC State were clearly playing their best football down the stretch. The Cardinals were at one point 2-4 with losses to non-BCS Conference Marshall and Florida International but rallied to win five of their final six games. One could argue there could be a letdown after the surge was good for a share of the Big East title but short of a BCS Bowl berth. But I don’t feel that with head coach Charlie Strong in charge we’ll witness any massive letdown. Strong has done a phenomenal job in two short years, leading the program to back-to-back bowl berths when little was expected. This season, with one of the youngest football teams in college football, Strong managed to pull the correct strings. Two of which included the firing of offensive coordinator Mike Sanford and starting true freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The moves paid off as a once awful offense averaged 30 points per game over its last four games. Note that the Cardinals will be without leading wide receiver Michaelee Harris for this game after a recent injury.
As for the Wolfpack, they finished on a 5-2 run after a stumbling out of the gate with a 2-3 start. The defense was torched early on, but injuries were the main cause of struggle – two key defenders, Terrell Manning and JR Sweezy, missed key early games. This will be a battle with intriguing strengths and weaknesses. The Louisville defensive is downright scary, especially at stopping the run (10th nationally, 103.5 ypg). That is certainly a favorable in-game matchup with NC State barely over 100 ypg on the ground. That puts the onus on quarterback Mike Glennon to win this game through the air. Note that NC State’s QB Rating was eighth in the ACC (134.8) – a mark that would have ranked third in the Big East behind West Virginia (148.3) and Louisville (136.9).
What Bettors Need to Know: Louisville vs. NC State
By Covers.com
Louisville vs. North Carolina State (-1, 44.5)
BELK BOWL STORYLINES:
1. Charlie Strong starts 10 freshmen at Louisville and began the season 2-4 before rallying to make a push for the Big East’s BCS bid. The Cardinals ultimately fell short, but ended up winning two straight on the road to finish the season and become bowl eligible.
2. North Carolina State had an even more improbable ascent to bowl eligibility, beating then-No. 7 Clemson on Nov. 19 to get to six wins and capping its regular season with the largest comeback in school history in a 56-41 victory over Maryland the following week. The Wolfpack came from four touchdowns behind and scored 35 points in the fourth quarter.
3. NC State will be hard-pressed to put up that kind of offense against the Cardinals, who have relied on a defense that allows an average of 19.2 points - the 14th-best mark in the nation.
4. The Cardinals will be playing in their second straight bowl game after beating Southern Miss in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl last December. The Wolfpack are marking two in a row as well. They took down Big East school West Virginia in the Citrus Bowl last season.
5. Louisville wide receiver Michaelee Harris will miss the Belk Bowl on Tuesday with a knee injury. Harris sustained the injury during practice and will not face North Carolina State. The freshman was the team leader in both receptions (37) and receiving yards (455). He also had two touchdowns. Eli Rogers and Josh Chichester are expected to see more playing time in Harris' absence.
LINE: NC State -1, 44.5. The line opened with the Wolfpack as 2 point favorites and were bet up a point before moving closing to a pick 'em. The total opened a point higher at 45.5 but just about every shop is dealing 44.5 now.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (7-5, 5-2 Big East): The Cardinals began to turn their season around when true freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater found his stride. The Miami native ran for a pair of touchdowns in a 34-20 win over Connecticut on Nov. 19 that made Louisville bowl eligible and turned in his best game in the season finale against South Florida, passing for a career-high three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 34-24 win. The performance clinched Bridgewater the Big East Rookie of the Year Award.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (7-5, 4-4 ACC): The Wolfpack peaked at the right time, winning their final two games in dramatic fashion after suffering a loss to Boston College on Nov. 12. North Carolina State got some early experience against a Big East foe in a 44-14 loss at Cincinnati on Sep. 22. Senior quarterback Mike Glennon threw five touchdown passes in the win over Maryland and totaled 28 this season against 11 interceptions.
TRENDS:
The Cards are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as underdogs, 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games against ACC opponents and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
The under is 5-1 in N.C. State's last six games and 8-3-1 in Louisville's last 12 games.
PREDICTION: Louisville 24, NC State 17. The Cardinals have the talent on defense to shut down Glennon, forcing the Wolfpack to feature a suspect rushing attack.
NCAAF Bowl Previews
Little Ceaser’s Bowl
Purdue is first Big Dozen team to play in bowl this year; since 2006, Big Dozen teams have been underdog in 30 of 37 bowls-- they’re 3-4 vs spread as a favorite, 13-24 SU in all bowls. Western Michigan is 0-4 in bowls, losing 27-24 (+7) in ’06, 38-14 (+3) in ’08. Purdue is in bowl for first time since ’07, when they beat Central Michigan 51-48 (-7.5) in this bowl; underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in Boilers’ last five bowls. Broncos covered their last four games as an underdog- they scored 50 ppg in last four games, losing one game 66-63. Purdue lost to Rice this year; how good can they be? MAC teams lost this bowl last four years, all by 4 or less points- they’re 2-0 in bowls this year, 6-17 since ’06, 4-11 against spread as a bowl underdog. Underdogs covered this bowl six of the last seven years, including last four in row, winning last three SU.
Belk Bowl
NC State made bowl behind junior QB Glennon after basically cutting Russell Wilson because of his playing minor league baseball instead of spring football. Wolfpack lost its first three games vs I-A teams this year but won five of last seven- they’re 2-2 as a favorite. Louisville is 6-0 as an underdog; they won five of their last six games behind freshman QB Bridgewater to get here; they lost 14-7 to North Carolina, a team State beat 13-0- both teams lost to Cincinnati. O’Brien is 8-2 in bowl games, 1-1 with NC State; Wolfpack won four of last five bowls, covering last three as a favorite. Louisville won three of last four bowls; average total in their last five is 63.2. ACC teams are 5-3 in this bowl, losing last two; last three bowls were decided by 5 or less points. Wolfpack (-3.5) beat South Florida 14-0 in this bowl six years ago. Big East teams are 6-4 in last 10 bowls vs ACC teams.
Belk Bowl Preview
By Scott Rickenbach
North Carolina State won’t have to travel far to face Louisville in the Belk Bowl. The Wolfpack and Cardinals are set to dance at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on December 27.
Oddsmakers have North Carolina State set as a 2-point favorite, holding a decisive home-field edge over its Big East opponent.
The Wolfpack (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) enter bowl season on a high note, upsetting eventual ACC champ Clemson in Week 12 before finishing off the schedule with a dramatic come-from-behind victory over Maryland, covering the spread in both contests.
North Carolina State is an opportunistic team, especially on defense where it led the nation in interceptions. It nabbed 24 wayward passes, with 11 of those picks coming from the sticky hands of sophomore David Amerson.
Louisville’s passing attack must be mindful of Amerson. The Cardinals (7-5, 8-4 ATS) keep the secondary guessing with their pistol offense, but true freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater could be in over his head during bowl season.
He’s thrown for five touchdowns and three interceptions in his last four games, coming off a stellar showing against South Florida in which he passed for 241 yards and three scores. Bridgewater has a 12-to-9 TD-to-INT count heading into the Belk Bowl.
Louisville is no slouch on defense, as well. The Cardinals rank 14th in the country in points allowed, limiting opponents to just 19.2 points per game. They’re especially stout against the run, holding foes to an average of 103.5 yards on the ground –ninth in the FBS.
The Wolfpack don’t have a dynamic offense and certainly don’t pose as big a threat on the ground as UL’s Big East rivals. North Carolina State’s run attack averages just 108.2 yards per outing, finishing second last in the ACC. Through the air, the Wolfpack are average at best, with quarterback Mike Glennon coming off a massive game versus Maryland.
Both Louisville and North Carolina State are coming off wins in last year’s bowls. The Cardinals dropped Southern Mississippi in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, winning 31-28 as 2-point favorites. The Wolfpack were victorious in their meeting with West Virginia in the Champs Sports Bowl, winning 23-7 as 3-point underdogs.
Tuesday's Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. PURDUE...Purdue bowling for first time since appearing in this bowl vs. CMU in 2007. Broncos were last bowling in 2008 Texas Bowl when losing vs. Rice. WMU 7-3-1 vs. spread its last 11 away from Waldo Stadium and was 4-0 as dog in 2011. Broncos 3-5 vs. line last 8 against Big Ten foes. Danny Hope just 5-8 last 13 as chalk since early 2009. Tech Trend: Slight to WMU, based on team trends.
LOUISVILLE vs. NC STATE...Conflicting trends here, with Louisville 6-0 vs. line away from Papa John's in 2011, 9-0 last nine in role, and 11-1 since Charlie Strong arrived LY. Tom O'Brien BC and NCS teams, however, have covered in eight straight bowl games. O'Brien NCS teams 26-9 vs. line from sixth games of season onward since he arrived as Wolfpack coach in 2007. Tech Trend: Slight to NCS, based on O'Brien bowl marks.