Orange Bowl Betting Preview
By Ein Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
Erin Rynning’s Betting Take: The new era of big time college football will be on display in this year’s Orange Bowl with complex, high octane, quick paced offenses. West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen was known for the offensive attacks he’s assembled at Oklahoma State, Houston and Texas Tech. The change for West Virginia was radical but they managed set school records across the board in the passing game led by junior quarterback Geno Smith. Smith launched almost 500 passes, while completing 65% for just under 4,000 yards and a 25/7 TD-to-INT ratio. The Mountaineers threw the ball 61% of the time and dangerous wide receivers Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin set school records for receiving yards (1,197) and catches (84).
Much of the same occurred at Clemson with a complete overhaul on the offensive side of the football. First-year offensive coordinator Chad Morris installed his own brand of “Air Raid” football and sophomore quarterback Tajh Boyd did a remarkable job within the system. The Tigers averaged about 100 ypg and 10 ppg more than the 2010 season. True freshman Sammy Watkins has exploded on the scene as a game breaker on offense and special teams. In fact both teams will be a threat to score on special teams with Austin countering for WVU. Note that West Virginia will be without the services of starting safety and third-leading tackler Terence Garvin. I project as many as 160 plays in this game and the extra preparation time for Holgorsen and Morris suggest this game should go over the total.
Wednesday's Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
WEST VIRGINIA vs. CLEMSON...West Virginia no covers last three years in bowls for Stewart. Holgorsen spread marks this year were very middling. But he was 2-1 as dog, and Mountaineers 11-3 getting points since 2005. Dabo had dropped four straight vs. line late in season until ACC title win vs. Beamer, but he's only 4-7 last 11 laying points away from Death Valley. Dabo also just 1-2 SU and vs. line in bowls. Tech Trend: WVU, based on team trends.
What Bettors Need to Know: West Virginia vs. Clemson
By Covers.com
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Clemson Tigers (-3, 61.5)
DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL STORYLINES
1. It's a matchup of explosive offenses -- both teams average more than 33 points and 440 yards -- and dangerous quarterbacks. Clemson's Tajh Boyd is a dual threat who has passed for 3,578 yards with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and added 194 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. West Virginia's Geno Smith, a native of the Miami area, has broken school records for attempts (483), completions (314) and passing yards (3,978) already this season.
2. The Tigers have been hurt at times by an inability to stop the run. While the Mountaineers don't run much -- they rank 100th in the nation with 117.8 rushing yards per game -- their ability to establish the ground game early could be the key to opening up the passing game and getting their offense going. It will be harder for West Virginia to accomplish that, though, without leading rusher Dustin Garrison (742 yards, six touchdowns), who suffered a serious knee injury during preparation for this game.
3. It's Clemson's first trip to the Orange Bowl since its 22-15 win over Nebraska on Jan. 1, 1982, capped a perfect season and the school's only national championship. The return to Miami prompted Tigers coach Dabo Swinney to say, "This is the site of our program's greatest moment, and we've been wandering in the desert for a long time since."
4. Clemson is West Virginia's fourth consecutive ACC bowl opponent, and its fourth different one. The Mountaineers are 2-0 in BCS bowls, but they lost to N.C. State in last year's Champs Sports Bowl. The Mountaineers lost to Clemson 27-7 in the Gator Bowl on Dec. 30, 1989, in the only previous meeting.
LINE: Most books had Clemson listed as a 3.5-point favorite at the open, but that line has moved around a bit since then. As of Tuesday night you would have seen the Tigers at -3 at most shops but there were also a handful of -2.5's on the board. The total was pegged around 61.5 or 62.
ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (9-3, 5-2 Big East): The Mountaineers had to win their last three games -- by a combined seven points -- to force a three-way tie atop the Big East with Cincinnati and Louisville and slip into their third BCS bowl. Smith has two dangerous receiving weapons in Stedman Bailey, a deep threat who has caught 67 passes for a school-record 1,197 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Tavon Austin, who has 89 catches for 1,063 yards. West Virginia will be without safety Terence Garvin, who has a knee injury that requires surgery. Garvin had 72 tackles and two interceptions this season.
ABOUT CLEMSON (10-3, 7-2 ACC): The Tigers went from off the national radar to start the season to surprise national title contender before losing three of their last four regular-season games. They bounced back with a 38-10 win over Virginia Tech in the ACC title game -- their second dominant performance against the Hokies this season -- to earn their first BCS bowl bid, their first ACC title since 1991 and their first 10-win season since 1990. The Tigers had a 1,000-yard rusher (Andre Ellington) and receiver (Sammy Watkins) for the third time in school history, but they will be without their No. 2 rusher, as freshman Mike Bellamy is still serving an indefinite suspension that began with the ACC title game.
TRENDS:
- West Virginia is 11-4 against the spread against teams with a winning record.
- Clemson is 1-4 against the spread in its last five overall.
- Each of Clemson's last five games have played under the total.
PREDICTION: Clemson 31, West Virginia 28. The Tigers' greatest weakness is its run defense, something the Mountaineers are ill-equipped to exploit.
Clemson vs. West Va.
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
For the first time since 1991, Clemson (10-3 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) won the ACC title this year to earn its first trip to a BCS game in school history. The Tigers will face West Virginia in Wednesday’s Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium in Miami.
As of early this morning, most betting shops had Clemson listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 62. Gamblers can West Va. (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) to win outright for a plus-125 payout (risk $100 to win $125).
Dabo Swinney’s team raced out to an 8-0 start and was clearly in the national-title picture going into an Oct. 29 trip to Atlanta to take on Ga. Tech. But the wheels fell off of the Tigers on that night, as they dropped a 31-17 decision as 3½-point road favorites.
Swinney’s squad limped through the month of November, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. Clemson needed a fourth-quarter rally and a last-second field goal to beat Wake Forest 31-28 at home. Next, the Tigers lost in blowout fashion at North Carolina St. (37-13) and at South Carolina (34-13).
Clemson looked so bad in November that it was installed as a seven-point underdog vs. Va. Tech in the ACC Championship Game. This fact displayed how much the team’s stock had fallen since it had thumped the Hokies by a 23-3 count in Blacksburg back on Oct. 1.
The script from Lane Stadium carried over to Charlotte two months later. Once again, Clemson dominated in a 38-10 win. Tajh Boyd completed 20-of-29 passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. He also scored on a one-yard TD run to put the game on ice early in the final stanza.
Andre Ellington rushed for a team-high 125 yards and one touchdown on 20 carries. Sammy Watkins had five receptions for 80 yards and a TD, in addition to five carries for 55 yards.
We should point out that Watkins, an explosive playmaker in the Percy-Harvin mold (but taller), missed the loss at N.C. St. with a shoulder injury and still wasn’t 100 percent in the loss to the Gamecocks. Also, Ellington missed the loss at Ga. Tech with an ankle injury.
Boyd has thrown for 3,578 yards with a 31/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also rushed for five TDs. Ellington has rushed for a team-high 1,062 yards, including a 212-yard effort in a 56-45 come-from-behind win at Maryland. Ellington has 10 rushing TDs and a 5.0 yards-per-carry average.
Watkins, a true freshman, is the catalyst for this dynamic offense. He has a team-high 79 receptions for 1,159 yards and 11 TDs. Also, Watkins rushed for 229 yards, averaging 7.4 YPC. He had 2,092 all-purpose yards and one kickoff return for a TD.
WVU won its last three games to win the Big East and earn the league’s bid to a BCS game. The Mountaineers closed the regular season by capturing a 30-27 win at South Florida as two-point road favorites.
Pat Miller returned an interception 52 yards for a TD and Tavon Austin scored on a 90-yard kickoff return for the winners, who prevailed thanks to Tyler Bitancourt’s 28-yard field goal as time expired. Dustin Garrison rushed for 87 yards and one TD.
Geno Smith was intercepted twice against the Bulls and didn’t throw a TD pass. However, those type of numbers weren’t the norm in 2011 for the junior signal caller. Smith connected on 65-percent of his throws for 3,978 yards with a 25/7 TD-INT ratio.
Garrison was WVU’s leading rusher (742 yards, 6 TDs) but he is out for the Orange Bowl after suffering a knee injury that’ll require surgery at practice last week. Nevertheless, the Mountaineers have plenty of depth at the RB position thanks to the presence of Shawne Alston, who has a team-high 10 rushing TDs.
WVU has been an underdog twice this year, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. The Mountaineers lost at home to LSU and won outright at Cincy. Meanwhile, Clemson owns a 4-2 spread record in six games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’
The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Clemson games and seven of its last nine. For the year, however, the ‘under’ is just 7-6 overall as the ‘over’ hit in four straight to start the year for the Tigers. They have had three totals in the 60s with the ‘under’ going 2-1 in those contests.
The ‘over’ hit in WVU’s first eight games before the ‘under’ cashed in its last three. (Remember, all wagers were ‘no plays’ in WVU’s season opener vs. Marshall because the game was called due to weather before 55 minutes had been played.)
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Clemson and West Va. have met just once previously when the Tigers beat the Mountaineers 27-7 in the 1989 Gator Bowl.
WVU has lost back-to-back bowl games by double-digit margins. The Mountaineers won their four previous bowl games behind QB Pat White, who is the only QB in college football history to lead a team to four postseason victories.
Clemson is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three bowl games on Swinney’s watch. The Tigers lost a 31-26 decision to South Florida in last year’s Meineke Car Care Bowl.
Terry Bowden is getting the old band back together. Actually, not really, but the new Akron head coach has hired Chuck Amato as his new associate head coach and defensive coordinator. Amato worked as an assistant at FSU under Bobby Bowden for 21 years. Amato was the head coach at N.C. St. from 2000-2006. I nominate Jeff Bowden for offensive coordinator.
Bets on sides resulted in a push in last night’s Sugar Bowl, where Michigan beat Va. Tech 23-20 in overtime as a three-point favorite. The 43 combined points fell ‘under’ the total that closed in the 52-53 range at most spots. During the Hokies’ possession to begin the extra session, Va. Tech senior WR Danny Coale appeared to make an incredible TD catch in the corner of the end zone. In fact, the official looking right at it ruled it a score and nothing on replay seemed to indisputably suggest otherwise. But the Pac-12 replay official reversed the call and then the Hokies missed a field goal on the following play. This set up Michigan for its 37-yard FG to win, while Coale’s career-capping catch went for naught.
Orange Bowl Preview
Clemson finished 2-3 after an 8-0 start; they were held to 17 points or less in all three losses; Tigers are 6-3 as a favorite, but failed to cover its last three when favored. West Virginia won its last three games by total of 7 points; they gave up 47-49-38 in three losses, and gave up average of 31 ppg in last six games. Underdogs covered four of last six in Orange Bowl, winning three of last four SU. Clemson lost four of its last five bowls, even though they were favored in all five games. Dogs covered WVU's last five bowls, with Mountaineers losing last two 33-21/23-7 as favorites. Since 2006, ACC bowl favorites are 9-16 vs spread, 2-1 in this year's bowls; Big East bowl underdogs are 4-5 vs spread. Had a feeling all year that after the late coaching change at West Virginia, that this was not a unified coaching staff, with assistants hired by the former coach. Would think that Clemson is the right side in this game.
Orange Bowl Preview
By by Jim Feist
A fun battle of high octane passing attacks. Clemson (10-3 SU/8-4 ATS) is loaded offensively as Coach Dabo Swinney hired Tulsa's Chad Morris as offensive coordinator. Sophomore QB Tajh Boyd (31 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,578 yards) leads the offense that is striking for 33.6 points, 284.8 yards passing. They can run behind senior RB Andre Ellington (1,062 yards, 5.0 ypc) and pass with freshman WR Sammy Watkins (1,135 yards, 11 TDs) and sophomore WR DeAndre Hopkins (871). The Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
West Virginia (9-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has new coach Dana Holgorsen, a pass-happy attack with mobile junior QB Geno Smith (25 TDs, 7 INTs, 3,978 yards). The wideouts are the Mountaineers' deepest position led by junior WR Tavon Austin (1,063 yards) and sophomore WR Stedman Bailey (1,197 yards, 11 TDs, 17.9 ypc). They had a 21-20 win over rival Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. West Virginia sacked Tino Sunseri 10 times led by DE Bruce Irvin. The Over is 9-2 in the Mountaineers last 11 games. The Mountaineers are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.