Poinsettia Bowl Preview
TCU won four of its last five bowls, allowing 19 or less points in all five games, but they were in Fiesta/Rose Bowls last two years, do they have same enthusiasm level for third trip to this game in last six years? Frogs won 27-7 (-12), 17-16 (-3) in previous visits here; dogs covered three of last four in this event- over last five years, double digit dogs are 10-7 vs spread in bowls. Louisiana Tech won/covered last seven games after 1-4 start; they're 6-0 as underdog this year; Bulldogs won last bowl in '08; this is second time they've left home state for bowl (lost Humanitarian Bowl in '01, 49-24 to Clemson). TCU also won last seven games; they allowed 50-40 points in two losses, 50-48 to Baylor in season opener, 40-33 in OT to SMU September 30, which is their last loss. Over last five years, MWC teams are 4-3 in bowls vs WAC teams, with underdogs covering five of the seven games.
Poinsettia Bowl Preview
By Jim Feist
A pair of teams with great passing offenses – but only one plays defense. Louisiana Tech (8-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) is on a tear, a 7-game win streak that got them a surprise WAC title. They have a great passing offense for coach Sonny Dykes, averaging 30.6 points and 247 yards passing, 150 rushing, behind freshman QB Nick Isham (8 TDs, 7 INTs) and junior QB Colby Cameron (11 TDs, 2 INTs, 1,403 yards). They also lost just 35-34 to powerhouse Houston and 19-17 to Southern Miss. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.
TCU, even with two losses, came close to earning a berth to its third-straight BCS bowl. But the Horned Frogs are headed to the Poinsettia Bowl to face Louisiana Tech, the WAC champion. TCU (10-2 SU/6-5 ATS) has sophomore QB Casey Paschall (24 TDs, 6 INTs) and a strong ground game behind junior RB Matthew Tucker (684 yds) and sophomore Waymon James (824 yards, 7.7 ypc), averaging 41.7 points, 210 yards rushing and 233.8 passing. They are 8-3 over the total this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Poinsettia Bowl
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Wednesday’s bowl action heads to San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium, where Louisiana Tech (8-4 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) will try to knock off No. 16 TCU (10-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST and some gamblers could be scratching their heads for this matchup.
The Horned Frogs are the more known of the two programs and they’ve been made prohibitive favorites. However, the Bulldogs from the Western Athletic Conference could be barking loudly in this spot and the sharp money tends to agree.
TCU opened as a 12½-point favorite at most sports books in early December. On paper, the Frogs are the better team and the first number seems fair. However, these non-conference affairs are more about the matchup rather than the talent and it appears the sharp money agrees. Since the number came out, the line has been knocked down to 9½ and even 9 points at most outfits.
The question is why?
For starters, some bettors will argue that it’s hard for TCU to get up for this particular game. After winning the Mountain West for the third straight season, head coach Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs just missed out on their third consecutive trip to a BSC bowl. The school beat Wisconsin 21-19 in the Rose Bowl last season and came up short to Boise State (10-17) in the Fiesta Bowl a year prior.
Without debate, it’s fair to say that the Poinsettia Bowl is clearly a step down. However, keep in mind that Patterson and TCU have made two trips to this bowl (see history below) and they showed up both times. Also, the Frogs will be leaving the MWC after the season for the Big 12.
Another obvious reason bettors are fading TCU is the opponent, Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs captured the WAC after closing out the season with seven straight wins, which came after a tough 1-4 start. And if you look at the setbacks, there’s even more of a reason to back second-year coach Sonny Dykes and his crew.
Louisiana Tech lost to the two teams that collided in the Conference USA championship by a combined three points, Southern Mississippi (17-19) and Houston (34-35). Also, they fell to a decent SEC foe in Mississippi State (20-26) in overtime on the road.
While three of their four losses were quality, you can knock La. Tech for its wins too, considering five came against teams with losing records and one was against a Football Championship Subdivision opponent (Central Arkansas) as well. Regardless of the competition, it’s hard to discount the Bulldogs’ current seven-game winning streak, especially since five of the victories were on the road. We shouldn’t forget that TCU also enters this bowl with seven straight wins too and its two losses this year came by two points to Baylor (48-50) and seven points to SMU (33-40) in overtime.
The Horned Frogs could’ve had three setbacks but they managed to pull one of the biggest upsets of the season when they nipped Boise State 36-35 as 16-point road underdogs. Quarterback Casey Pachall tossed the touchdown and eventual game-winning two-point conversion before the Broncos missed a field goal late. Pachall (2,715 yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs) has played very well in his first season under center for TCU, who averaged 41.7 points per game this season.
Bowl Betting Notes
The Horned Frogs were 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road
The Bulldogs went 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS away from home
TCU watched the ‘over’ go 8-3 this season
La. Tech saw the ‘under’ go 7-4, which included a 6-1 mark on the road
TCU is 3-1 in its last four bowl games under Patterson, but only 1-3 ATS and the largest margin was seven points
The Mountain West is 0-2 both SU and ATS in bowls this season
The WAC is 0-1 SU and ATS
TCU Bowl History (Last Five)
Jan. 1, 2011 Rose Bowl - TCU 21, Wisconsin 19
Jan. 4, 2010 Fiesta Bowl - Boise State 17, TCU 10
Dec. 23, 2008 Poinsettia Bowl - TCU 17, Boise State 16
Dec. 28, 2007 Texas Bowl - TCU 20, Houston 13
Dec. 19, 2006 Poinsettia Bowl - TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7
Louisiana Bowl History (Last Five)
Dec. 28, 2008 Independence Bowl - Louisiana Tech 17, Northern Illinois 10
Dec. 31, 2001 Humanitarian Bowl - Clemson 49, Louisiana Tech 29
Dec. 15, 1990 Independence Bowl - Louisiana Tech 34, Maryland 34, tie
Dec. 16, 1978 Independence Bowl - East Carolina 35, Louisiana Tech 15
Dec. 17, 1977 Independence Bowl - Louisiana Tech 24, Louisville 14
Poinsettia Bowl History (2006-2010)
Dec. 23, 2010 - San Diego State 35, Navy 14
Dec. 23, 2009 - Utah 37, California 27
Dec. 23, 2008 - TCU 17, Boise State 16
Dec. 20, 2007 - Utah 35, Navy 32
Dec. 19, 2006 - TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7
Notes: The Mountain West has won all five installments of the Poinsettia Bowl since it started in 2006
Poinsettia Bowl Betting Preview
By Marty Otto
Sportsmemo.com
Marty Otto’s Betting Take: Before the season kicked off I suspected that TCU would struggle to duplicate some of the its recent results with so much roster turnover. While it certainly wasn’t a cakewalk they played better than I had anticipated. The offense in particular outperformed any projection I had coming into the season, ranking ninth nationally while scoring over 40 points per game. Quarterback Casey Pachall is having a phenomenal year and this ground game has been awesome with the three-headed attack of Waymon James, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley. But for a team that’s played in back-to-back BCS bowl games, winding up in the Poinsettia Bowl could be a real let down. Such is the potential situation for the Horned Frogs this week.
They had better be ready if they hope to win because Louisiana Tech is a scrappy bunch that has battled each week despite facing some pretty crippling injuries/suspensions on both sides of the football. Amidst all kinds of quarterback issues prior to the season, to a switch midway through the campaign, the Bulldogs managed to close the season on a seven game winning streak after opening 1-4. But we should note that they were competitive even when losing early in the season. Three of their four losses on the year came by a touchdown or less including very solid efforts against Southern Miss, Houston and Mississippi State. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog, consistently beating low market expectations. And this game does mean something to them; they haven’t been bowling since 2008 and facing a signature opponent like TCU will have them amped up.
This has the look of a game that could see some fireworks from an offensive perspective. Tech is never going to be able to run on this TCU defense and the suspension of Lenon Creer and a dearth of capable talent behind him at running back likely means LT will go to the air in search of big play receiver Quinton Patton. That’s a good matchup as TCU has struggled with passing attacks this season. And although I don’t think TCU is very excited to be here I don’t know that Tech has the horses to slow down this Horned Frogs offense that is so balanced and explosive.
Poinsettia Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-9.5, 55.5)
POINSETTIA BOWL STORYLINES
1. Two surprise conference champions riding seven-game winning streaks square off in the Poinsettia Bowl. No. 15 TCU finished with a perfect record in the Mountain West, including a dramatic victory over preseason favorite Boise State, to claim its third consecutive title. Louisiana Tech — picked to finish fourth in the WAC — dethroned preseason favorite Hawaii to claim its first conference title.
2. From a motivational standpoint, the Bulldogs might have an advantage. They’re making just their sixth bowl appearance and first since 2008, while the Horned Frogs will play in a bowl for the seventh consecutive season on the heels of back-to-back BCS bowl appearances.
3. These teams feature very similar playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. TCU linebacker Tank Carder was named the Mountain West’s Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight season, while Louisiana Tech’s Adrien Cole earned the same honor in the WAC after posting 121 tackles, 12 of which were for loss.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
LINE: TCU opened as high as -11, but has been bet down to 9.5. The total opened 55.5 and has climbed to 56 at some shops.
WEATHER: Fog is in the forecast for Qualcomm Stadium, with game-time temperatures in the high 59s.
ABOUT TCU (10-2, 7-0 Mountain West Conference, 6-6 ATS): After losing eight starters from 2010, including quarterback Andy Dalton, the Horned Frogs’ offense was expected to struggle this year. But that hasn’t been the case at all as sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall filled the hole left by Dalton by tossing 24 touchdowns to only six interceptions. TCU finished ninth nationally with 41.7 points per game, but all that success led to one drawback — co-offensive coordinator Justin Fuente left the program to become the head coach at Memphis, which has won only five combined games in the past three seasons.
ABOUT LOUISIANA TECH (8-4, 6-1 Western Athletic Conference, 10-2 ATS): The outlook was bleak for second-year coach Sonny Dykes when his Bulldogs stumbled out of the gates in 2011 with a 1-4 start. But Louisiana Tech steamrolled through the back half of the schedule, winning seven straight games, five of which came by double digits. Dykes was named the WAC Coach of the Year, helping engineer an offense that averaged 30.6 points and 398 yards, both in the top 50 nationally. Junior quarterback Colby Cameron took over for injured freshman Nick Isham five games ago, and since that point the Bulldogs scored 35 points per game on 445 total yards.
TRENDS:
* Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last five non-conference games.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Horned Frogs last eight Bowl games.
PREDICTION: TCU 30, Louisiana Tech 28. The Horned Frogs will have enough firepower to come away with a victory, but this one will be a fight to the end.