NCAAF Bowl Previews
Military Bowl
Toledo coach Beckman is off to be new coach at Illinois Air Force won four of last five games but is just 5-5 vs I-AA teams this year, despite being underdog in only three of 10 lined games (2-1 as dog in ’11, 12-8-1 as dogs under Calhoun); they're in 5th straight bowl, winning 47-20/14-7 last two years. Toledo gave up 63 points in consecutive games this year but split the pair; they averaged 52.8 ppg in last five games (average total in last seven was 83.1). Rockets are 5-3 as favorites last two years, 3-2 this year. Favorite won/covered this bowl all three years its been played; Toledo lost three of last four bowls, with average total 62.3; Rockets lost 34-32 to FIU LY, their first bowl since ’05. This is first time a regional team won’t be involved in this game. MAC teams are 6-17 in their last 23 bowls, 2-0 this year- they’re 3-3-1 vs spread as bowl favorite. MWC teams are 16-7 in last 23 bowls, 2-2 this year; they’re 5-4 vs spread in last nine games as a bowl underdog.
Holiday Bowl
Texas lost three of last four games, thanks to subpar QB play, banged-up RBs; they’re 5-3 as favorite this year, 12-14 since ’09. Longhorns are 12-12 last two years, after being 101-16 the nine years before that, so no doubt Texas coaches are in this to win it, being on hot seat and all. Cal Bears allowed 31+ points in six of their last nine games- they’re 2-2 as a dog. Cal-Texas both missed bowls LY, after losing bowls the year before; three of Longhorns’ last four bowl wins are by 3 or less points. Tedford is 5-2 in bowls, Brown 12-7. Average total in Cal’s last five bowls is 60.2. Big X-Pac 12 split this bowl last eight years; Texas won this game in ’07, Cal the year before; favorites are 3-2 last five years, in what had been underdog-dominated bowl. Since 2006, Pac-12 teams are 5-7 vs spread as bowl underdogs; Big X teams are just 9-16 as bowl favorites the last 5+ years.
What Bettors Need to Know: Air Force vs. Toledo
By Covers.com
Air Force vs. Toledo (-3, 71)
MILITARY BOWL STORYLINES
1. Toledo and Air Force meet for the first time, but only one team will have the same coach it had when the season started. Tim Beckman, who was 21-16 in three seasons at Toledo, left Dec. 9 to take the same position at Illinois. Beckman turned around a program in disarray with three straight losing seasons into a team playing in its second straight bowl. Offensive coordinator Matt Campbell will serve as interim coach. Air Force is coached by Troy Calhoun, who has the Falcons in a school-record fifth straight bowl game.
2. A statistical mismatch can be found in rushing defense. Toledo is 23rd in the nation among the 120 FBS teams at 123.1 yards per game while Air Force is 113th (227.7). The Rockets will face the No. 2 rushing offense (320.3); the Falcons go against the No. 14 running attack (221.1), led by Adonis Thomas and his 107 yards per game (17th in the country). Toledo’s pass defense is 109th at 277.9.
3. Air Force is 10-10-1 in bowl games and has won two straight, including a 14-7 victory over Georgia Tech in the 2010 Independence Bowl. Toledo is 7-4, including a 34-32 loss to Florida International in last season’s Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.
4. Air Force is 17-8 against non-conference foes in five seasons under Calhoun and has won 10 of its last 12 such games, with the losses at Oklahoma in 2010 and at Notre Dame this season.
LINE: Toledo -3, 71. Not a lot of movement on this spread but a few places in Vegas have moved it up to 3.5. The total, one of the highest of the bowl season, is holding at 71.
ABOUT AIR FORCE (7-5, 3-4 Mountain West): Tim Jefferson holds the school record for most wins by a quarterback with 28, but doesn’t throw much in the Falcons’ run-happy offense. He attempted only 161 passes this season, completing 60.9 percent of them with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. Air Force played MWC foe Boise State tough on the road before falling 37-26.
ABOUT TOLEDO (8-4, 7-1 Mid-American): The Rockets also played Boise State – a 40-15 loss at home on Sept. 16. Toledo has won three straight and seven of its last eight. Terrance Owens took over at quarterback for Austin Dantin (concussion) and threw nine touchdowns in the last three games. Toledo averaged 42.2 points, eighth in the nation.
TRENDS:
Toledo is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite but 1-4-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.
Air Force is 5-2 in its last seven games
PREDICTION: Air Force 35, Toledo 31 – Calhoun and the Falcons will figure out a way to keep the Rockets somewhat grounded and exploit Toledo’s suspect pass defense.
What Bettors Need to Know: California vs. Texas
By Covers.com
California vs. Texas (-3, 47)
HOLIDAY BOWL STORYLINES
1. After its 12-year postseason run was snapped in 2010, Texas improved enough this season to return to a bowl game. But after a 4-0 start propelled them all the way to No. 11 in the rankings, the Longhorns stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their final four games.
2. As bad as Texas was in the season’s final month, California was the opposite, winning three of its final four games and losing only at Stanford by a field goal. Running back Isi Sofele ran for at least 96 yards in all four of those games, including a season-high 190 on 23 carries in a 23-6win against Oregon State.
3. These two teams couldn’t be more different at the quarterback position. Zach Maynard, California’s dual-threat junior, started every game of the season and averaged 246 yards of total offense per game. Texas flip-flopped at quarterback all season, starting with incumbent Garrett Gilbert, who ended up getting injured and transferring. The Longhorns wound up with a two-quarterback system utilizing youngsters David Ash and Case McCoy.
Line: Texas-3, 47. This line dropped from Texas -4 to -3 with the juice about 10 cents higher before Texas bettors moved the number back up to -4 at most books. The total opened at 48 but most shops have it either at 47 or 47.5.
ABOUT TEXAS (7-5, 4-5 Big 12): The Longhorns’ struggles offensively – particularly at quarterback – opened the door for the defense to shine brightly in 2011. Texas was tops in the Big 12 and 14th nationally at 315.3 yards allowed per game, but the team is coming off an awful performance in a 48-24 loss at Baylor to close the regular season. As table of running backs, led by true freshman Malcolm Brown, averaged 210 yards on the ground and helped carry the Longhorns’ offense.
ABOUT CALIFORNIA (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12): This is the Golden Bears’ third appearance in the Holiday Bowl. Sofele averaged 141.3 rushing yards over the season’s final four games to finish with 1,266 yards and nine touchdowns in the regular season. He’ll be asked to carry the load against a Texas defense that was stout against the run, surrendering only103 yards per game. Cal ranks in the top 50 but no higher than No. 25 nationally in virtually every major offensive and defensive category.
TRENDS:
Cal is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall but 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in December.
Texas is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games against teams with winning records and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 bowl games.
PREDICTION: California 28, Texas 17. The Golden Bears will ride the legs of Sofele to move to 6-2 in bowl games under coach Jeff Tedford.
Wednesday's Bowl Trends
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
TOLEDO vs. AIR FORCE...Calhoun has won and covered bowl games the past two years after dropping first two at AFA. Although Falcs only 10-15 vs. line overall the past two seasons. Rockets only 2-5 vs. spread outside of MAC (against FBS foes) the past two seasons. Tech Trend: Slight to AFA, based on team trends.
CAL vs. TEXAS...Bears closed with a rush by covering their last four games in 2011. Although Tedford only 2-4 vs. spread last six bowls. Mack Brown has only covered one of last nine games with spread of seven or fewer since early 2010. Mack 3-7 vs. line last ten bowls. Tech Trend: Cal, based on team trends.
Military Bowl Betting Preview
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Brent Crow’s Betting Take: Not a surprise to see this total currently above 70 with both squads relying on outscoring the opposition to win games. Toledo averaged 53.8 ppg its last five games and 40.8 ppg on the year. But while the Rockets were making routine visits to the end zone, so were capable foes. Western Michigan and Northern Illinois boasted two of the better offenses in the MAC and both netted 63 points against the Rockets. The rest of the MAC averaged a modest 20.5 but a majority of those teams were well below average offensively on the season. Air Force contests have also seen plenty of points this year with the Falcons scoring 31.3 ppg and allowing 28.3 ppg. Add in the fact that both teams average over five yards per carry on the ground and nearly eight yards per pass play and it is easy to see why the total is sky high. Statistically, Toledo was almost a yard per carry better than the Falcons (4.65 to 5.45) on the ground though the MAC wasn’t exactly littered with potent ground attacks. Against the pass, both squads grade out below average. Note that Toledo allowed four returned kicks for touchdowns this season. There doesn’t seem to be much of a motivational edge here, and I expect both sides to come with a good effort. When it comes down to it, I’d have a difficult time laying points with a shoddy MAC defense against a difficult offense to prepare for. Strike price of +3.5 for the underdog.
Holiday Bowl Betting Preview
By Otto Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Marty Otto’s Betting Take: Cal has not produced many wins away from home over the past two seasons and I question whether they’ll get one here on Wednesday. The Golden Bears were lucky to sneak past Colorado early this season when on the highway, lost outright to Washington and Oregon in back-to-back weeks while traveling, got blasted by a bad UCLA team in Los Angeles, and couldn’t rebound from a 15-point deficit at Stanford. They did close with a win at Arizona State but that’s hardly worth hanging their hats on after the Sun Devils went 0-5 to finish the season.
While I like some of the individual pieces for Cal’s offense – Keenan Allen, Isi Sofele and Zach Maynard – I don’t think they’re a cohesive offense with a real sense of identity. They’ve flirted with being a bubble screen team, they’ve flirted with being a down field passing team, they’ve flirted with some zone-read and then again some i-formation runs. But it seems like they get stuck into predictable patterns and frankly they aren’t dominant in any one mode. Another thing that seems to pop up often; they make bad mistakes at critical times. I’d be higher on this team if they were more consistent.
The same can really be said about Texas. The Longhorns have gone through three different starting quarterbacks this season and none of three has had much success. Case McCoy is the better passer of the two that could see time this week with David Ash being more of a runner. This team focuses on running the football and really must run if they hope to put points on the board. Texas ranked 19th in the nation in rushing this season so they obviously have some pieces to be successful on the ground. The question is whether they do so against a Cal defense that had a month to dissect UT’s offense.
Texas does have the better of the two defenses here though. They rank a solid 15th in total yards and stop the run and pass at a better clip according to our ACCU-Stats compared to the Golden Bears. They’ve generated close to 60 quarterback hurries this season and play a lot of press coverage. That means short bubble screens could be tough and pressure could be high if Cal is forced to try and throw deep. That could mean trouble for Maynard who’s not the best decision maker under pressure.
Holiday Bowl Preview
By Hollywood Sports
California faces off against Texas in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium on December 28th in a game between two teams with a number of similarities which should make this an intriguing matchup. Both of these perennial college football powers should be at full attention for this game after both missed out on a bowl opportunity last season. Jeff Tedford returned twelve starters from last season's disappointing 5-7 club but, for the first time in his tenure at Cal, without established returning fixtures at quarterback or running back positions. Mack Brown also returned twelve starters from a 5-7 team which was a startling result for a program that had been in the BCS Championship Game the year before. While both of these proud programs were hoping for quick turnarounds from those subpar seasons, the Golden Bears and the Longhorns concluded their regular seasons with 7-5 seasons that included 4-5 sub-.500 records in conference play. But that is where the similarities end as Cal closed out their season by winning three of their last four games highlighted by a narrow 3-point loss at Stanford while Texas ended their season by losing three of their last four games. So while it is the Golden Bears who enter this game with momentum, it is the Longhorns who are ranked 24th in the BCS standings. The answers to five questions will likely determine the outcome of this game.
(1) Will Zach Maynard have his way against the tough Texas pass defense?
Maynard transferred to Cal from Buffalo and looked lackluster in his three opportunities to end the 2010 season for the Golden Bears. After securing the starting job this season, Maynard completed just 53.4% of his passes along with throwing ten interceptions to just twelve touchdowns in his first eight games this season. He was certainly in danger of losing his job but Tedford lacked credible backup options so he stuck with Maynard. Perhaps the adversity helped Maynard as he stepped up his game by completing 68.1% of his passes over his last four games while tossing five TD passes to just one interception over that stretch. And while it may be tempting to dismiss his 20 of 27 effort along with 241 passing yards against a porous Arizona State defense, his 20 of 29 performance for 290 yards the week before against Stanford is a strong rebuttal that Maynard was just benefiting from facing a suspect defense. There is no question that Maynard has two talented receiving options in All-Pac 12 wide receiver Keenan Allen (105.1 YPG, 12th in the FBS) and three-year starter Marvin Jones. However, Maynard will be challenged here by what may very well be the most talented defense he has faced all season. The Longhorns held their opponents to just 315.3 total YPG which was the top statistical mark in the Big 12 and the 15th best in the FBS. Texas' pass defense surrendered only 211.7 passing YPG (46th in the FBS) and their defensive pass efficiency was 14th best in the FBS. If Maynard can continue to lead the Golden Bears' offense to score close to the 32.0 clip that they did in their last four contests, Cal will likely overwhelm the points Texas will likely put up on the scoreboard.
(2) Can Isi Sofele open things up for Cal passing attack against the stout Texas run defense?
One of the reasons that Maynard's passing production improved over his last four games was Tedford's increased commitment to the Golden Bears' rushing attack. While Sofele certainly had talent, there remained questions as to whether he was durable enough to handle more carries. Maynard was called on to run the ball more out of their spread formation. Sofele thrived in this environment as he enjoyed his best four games of the season down the stretch by averaging 142 YPG to achieve an impressive 1266 rushing yards this season. Certainly Maynard was more effective in the passing game given the increasing threat Sofele represented. But Sofele will be challenged by a very strong Longhorns' run defense that was the 11th most stingy in the FBS by limiting their opponents to only 103.7 rushing YPG. If Sofele cannot his the Cal ground game going, Maynard may revert back to his earlier season form.
(3) Will Cal's woes away from home continue?
Cal long ago earned the reputation for owning a strong home field advantage whose quality of play declines when not playing in comfortable environments. In theory, this notion was to be tested this season since the renovations in the Golden Bears' Memorial Stadium were forcing Cal to play most of their home games in San Francisco's AT&T Park. Yet the Golden Bears won five of their six home contests this season. But once again, Cal struggled on the road where they lost four of their six games by an average margin of -7.3 points. What has been particularly puzzling has been how ineffective the Golden Bears defense has been away from home under the guidance of defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast. This season, Cal allowed 34.5 PPG along with a whopping 470.3 total YPG away from home which are far cries away from their 24.4 PPG and 339.4 total YPG seasonal averages for all their games. So while this game is played on the neutral field in San Diego, the fact that the Golden Bears were outgained by an average of -84.5 YPG when away from home remains very concerning for Cal. For comparisons sake, Texas was 3-2 on the road this season with a +3.6 net point differential and a +11.0 YPG differential versus their opponents.
(4) Can Texas score enough points?
Entering the season, the two most important players for Texas on the offensive side of the football were quarterback Garrett Gilbert and runny back Fozzie Whitaker. Neither will play in this game. Gilbert was benched after a slow start this season and he eventually transferred out of the program under the weight of the high expectations expected of him. Whitaker was a 5th year senior who started the season at the top of the depth chart at running back while also being a keep weapon in special teams before suffering a season-ending injury. The loss of these two players embodied the failure of this Texas program to stay at the elite level it had been at over the last handful of years under Brown. There were very capable answers for the Longhorns at running back with two blue-chip freshmen in Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron yet both have endured injury-plagues rookie seasons. The answers were not as evident at quarterback with sophomore Case McCoy (Colt's younger brother) and freshman David Ash. McCoy is the better passer with his 61.4% completion rating and his 7.21 YPA average while tossing seven TDs to just four interceptions. Yet McCoy has failed to move the offense throughout much of the season which has made Ash's mobility to run the ball an attractive option. Yet Ash completes only 56.0% of his passes with a 6.17 YPA average and he threw eight interceptions to just 3 TD passes which likely means McCoy will get the majority of snaps in this game. The good news for the Longhorns is that Brown and Bergeron are both listed as probable for this game as of this writing (although that does not guarantee that they are at 100%). Texas will need to establish their running game to take pressure off whoever plays quarterback against a Cal team that really gets after the QB. Led by the Pac-12's Defensive Player of the Year in Mychal Kendricks, the Golden Bears were 15th in the FBS by generating 32 sacks while also ranking 5th in the FBS by averaging 7.67 tackles-for-loss per game. Those are scary numbers for a Longhorns defense that allowed 26 quarterback sacks this season.
(5) Is Texas above Cal's weight class?
It was just a two short years ago that the Longhorns were playing for the BCS Championship. While Cal's 5-7 record last season snapped their eight-straight winning seasons under Teford, he has not had a team approach the same heights that the Golden Bears did way back in 2004 when they won ten games. These teams have one common opponent in UCLA this season with the results not looking good for Cal as they lost to the Bruins by a 31-17 score while Texas blew them out by a 49-20 score. But keep in mind that the Longhorns were motivated by revenge after UCLA beat them on their home field the year before and this will be a much different Texas team that will take the field for this one as the one that defeated UCLA in mid-September. With Oregon, Stanford and USC competing in the Pac-12, Cal may have endured a more difficult conference season. However, with the Ducks and Cardinal earning BCS bowl bids and the Trojans not being eligible for any bowl this season, Cal was able to jump up a few places in line for a more prestigious bowl than they normally would have been offered. Of course, that may be a fortuitous opportunity for a streaking team this time of season.
Both these teams want to use this game as a building-block for next season. It is interesting that both of these head coaches will likely find themselves deeper on the hot seat if they do not see improved records next season. This is a bowl game with much at stake for both programs moving forward. Texas opened as a 3.5-4 point favorite with the Total set at 48/47.5. As of this writing, the Longhorns look likely to stay entrenched as a field goal favorite with the Total set at most locations at 47.5. With this being the lone football game for Wednesday evening, this prime-time game between two well-known programs promises to receive plenty of attention from bettors.
Wednesday's Wagers
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Gamblers have a pair of college football bowl games to wager on Wednesday starting at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. That’s when Toledo and Air Force will collide in the Military Bowl at RFK Stadium in Washington D.C.
As of early this morning, most betting shops were listing Toledo (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with the total in the 70-71 range. Bettors can take Air Force (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) to win outright for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
I often talk about three major factors in bowl games – location, motivation and coaching changes. In this spot, we’ve got a Toledo squad dealing with the loss of head coach Tim Beckman, who has accepted the same post at Illinois. Beckman departed Dec. 9 and offensive coordinator Matt Campbell was tabbed as the interim head coach.
As for location, Air Force has to travel farthest with the trip to D.C. from Colorado, so that give Toledo as ever-so-slight advantage. But as for motivation, the Falcons probably have a small edge since they know they’re playing for a coach in Calhoun who will be back next season.
Air Force will be playing in a school-record fifth straight bowl game on Troy Calhoun’s watch. The Falcons have won back-to-back games and four of their last five, including a 45-21 win at Colorado St. as 14-point road favorites in their regular-season finale.
Tim Jefferson burned the Rams for 221 passing yards, completing 9-of-12 attempts for three touchdowns without an interception. Jefferson also rushed four times for 38 yards, while Asher Clark produced 113 yards and one touchdown on only 13 totes.
For the season, Jefferson has connected on 60.9-percent of his throws for 1,458 yards with a 12/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 492 yards and 10 TDs. Clark leads Air Force in rushing with 1,096 yards, six TDs and a 7.3 yards-per-carry average. Mike DeWitt has rushed for 543 yards and 10 scores.
Air Force has the nation’s second-best ground attack, averaging 320.3 YPG. The Falcons will be facing a Toledo defense that ranks No. 23 in the country, surrendering just 123.1 YPG.
Toledo was a play or two away from going 11-1 this season. Three of its losses were one-possession games in which the Rockets had leads in the fourth quarter. The first was a 27-22 setback at Ohio St. They also fell 63-60 vs. No. Illinois and 33-30 at Syracuse in double overtime. The loss at the Carrier Dome was extremely controversial, as a Toledo PAT was inexplicably called no good in regulation.
The only convincing Toledo loss came against Boise St. by a 40-15 count, but the Rockets were extremely competitive in that game for three quarters.
Toledo sophomore quarterback Terrance Owens enjoyed a breakout campaign, especially late in the regular season. He threw nine touchdown passes in the last three games. For the year, Owens completed 71.3-percent of his passes for 1,812 yards with a 15/3 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 209 yards and one TD, averaging 5.2 YPC.
Senior RB Adonis Thomas leads the Rockets in rushing with 955 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 6.5 YPC. He also has 28 catches for 335 yards and one TD.
Toledo has been a single-digit favorite twice this year and failed to take the cash in both instances. Meanwhile, Air Force has gone 2-1 ATS in three underdog situations.
Toledo returned to the postseason for the first time since 2005 last year, dropping a 34-32 decision to FIU in the Little Caesar’s Bowl. The Falcons have won bowl games the last two seasons, beating Houston 47-20 and Ga. Tech 14-7 in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
The ‘over’ is 9-3 overall for Air Force, but the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in its last five games. The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for Toledo, going 4-1 in its last five outings.
ESPN will have the telecast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. The kickoff temperature is expected to be in the low-40s with winds of 10-20 miles per hour.
The second bowl game of the day will feature Texas and California in the Holiday Bowl. Most books are listing the Longhorns as 3½-point favorites with a total of 47½. The Bears are plus-150 on the money line.
Texas (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) lost three of its last four regular-season games both SU and ATS, including a 48-24 loss at Baylor as a 1½-point underdog. The lone win down the stretch came on Nov. 24 at Texas A&M, where UT rallied for a 27-25 win on a field goal at the gun.
Case McCoy threw for 356 yards and three TDs at Baylor, but he was intercepted four times. For the year, McCoy had seven TD passes and he had not been picked off prior to his 4-int performance against the Bears.
Since Foswhitt Whittaker went down with a season-ending injury, Malcolm Brown has been given a heavier load. Brown is averaging 4.4 YPC with 707 yards on 159 carries. He has five rushing TDs.
California (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) won three of its last four games, taking the money in all four of those contests. The Bears closed the regular season with a 47-38 win at Arizona St. as six-point underdogs. Their only loss during the stretch run was a 31-28 defeat at Stanford as 17-point ‘dogs.
Zach Maynard threw for 237 yards and one TD without being picked off against the Sun Devils. C.J. Anderson rushed for a pair of TDs, while junior RB Isi Sofele had 119 yards and one TD.
Maynard has a 17/11 TD-INT ratio. Sofele ran for an average of 141.3 YPG during Cal’s 4-0 ATS surge to close the regular season. Sofele had 1,266 rushing yards for the year.
Texas is 2-2 ATS in four single-digit ‘chalk’ spots, while California owns a 2-3 spread record in five underdog situations.
The ‘under’ is 6-5-1 overall for the Longhorns, going 3-1 in their last four contests. The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Cal, but the ‘over’ has hit in its last two games.
The Bears have had three totals in the 40s with the ‘over’ going 2-1. Likewise, the ‘over’ is 2-1 in the Longhorns’ three games that had totals in the 40s.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
This is the first time Air Force and Toledo have ever faced each other in football.
Texas senior strong safety Christian Scott is ‘out’ with a wrist injury.
Cal is 5-2 in seven bowl games during Jeff Tedford’s 10-year tenure.
North Carolina State held off a late Louisville rally last night to capture a 31-24 win as a two-point favorite in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. The 55 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 44-point total.
Purdue won the Little Caesar’s Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit yesterday, beating Western Michigan by a 37-32 count as a 1½-point ‘chalk.’ The 69 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 63-point tally.