College Football Bowl Game News and Notes for Saturday, December 16th, 2017

Saturday's Bowl Best Bets
December 13, 2017
By BetDSI

Saturday College Football Bowls Best Bets

The 2017 College Football Bowl season officially begins on Saturday with five Bowl games on the betting board. These early Bowl games can be a great way to boost your bankroll before the big games kick-off around the New Year, but they can also be somewhat tricky to handicap given motivational levels for some teams.

There are always plenty of programs that are ecstatic they've gotten into a Bowl game, but there are others who aren't exactly thrilled with how their season turned out and the last place they want to be is playing in one of these mid-December Bowl games. That notion might not specifically apply to these teams playing on Saturday, but it's definitely something to keep in mind during the next couple of weeks.

With five Bowl games on Saturday to break down and choose from, here is where my money is going.

Las Vegas Bowl – Boise State vs Oregon

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #1: Over 59 points

Boise State may be one of those college football teams that can be classified in the “not exactly thrilled to be here” category as a 10-3 SU record and Mountain West Championship wasn't enough to push this team to a bigger Bowl game on a later date.

In fact, of the 10 teams in action on Saturday only Troy and Boise State finished the year with more than 7 wins so playing on the first Saturday is not really ideal for either program. Whether or not that ends up translating on the field – Boise is a TD underdog – remains to be seen. But what should translate on the field for this game is plenty of scoring from both sides.

Before Boise finished the season with two consecutive games against Fresno State (regular season finale and MWC Championship), this was an offense that had scored 40+ in four straight games as they were beating up on some bad teams. Oregon isn't exactly a bad team at 7-5 SU, but their defense is far from great as they allowed 28.3 points per game on average and had trouble slowing down the better teams in the Pac-12.

This Broncos offense is somewhat comparable to teams like UCLA (scored 31 vs Oregon), Washington (scored 38 vs Oregon), Washington State (scored 33 vs Oregon) and Stanford (scored 49 vs Oregon), and after two straight games vs. Fresno where Boise failed to score more than 17 points, the Broncos offense should show up somewhat.

For Oregon, this season has been all about whether or not QB Justin Herbert has been healthy. Herbert started seven games for the Ducks this year (6-1 SU), but more importantly he is the guy that makes this offense go. In those seven contests the Ducks never scored fewer than 35 points in a single game, as they averaged 52.14 points per game in Herbert's starts.

Compare that to the five games Oregon played without him under center when they scored 14 or fewer points in four of those games with the lone high mark being a 41-20 win over Utah. Oregon averaged a measly 15 points per game during that stretch so you can see just how important Herbert is to this program. Herbert is back healthy again and could be primed for a breakout campaign in 2018, but if that indeed does happen it needs to start in this Bowl game.

The fact that Oregon's offense is seemingly unstoppable with Herbert under center makes this total way too low in my opinion. Yes, Boise State's defense is fairly solid, but when teams aren't thrilled about the Bowl game they are in it's usually the defense that drops off first.

With that unit having to line up every five seconds to deal with Oregon's tempo and speed, they'll be the ones getting pretty tired pretty quickly and that's precisely when the Ducks hit you with a big play. Heck, if Oregon even sniffs their scoring average with Herbert under center (52.14), Boise State's offense can be as flat as they want, will only need one or two scores from them to cash this 'over' play.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – Middle Tennessee vs Arkansas State

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #2: Under 62.5 points

This is a Bowl game where motivation concerns shouldn't apply as both teams are happy they got to be involved in December football. Middle Tennessee finished 6-6 SU thanks to three wins in their final four games, and it was consistent play by their offense that led them to that stretch run. Middle Tennessee scored 30 or more in each of their final four games (the loss came in OT) and they are hoping that offense shows up in the Camellia Bowl on Saturday.

However, I wouldn't be so quick to jump on board with that thought as more than 90% of bettors are right now according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentages because having two highly motivated teams doing battle in a Bowl game is usually where the unexpected shows up. In this case the 'unexpected' is the respective defenses putting their stamp on this game and you know after tough rough weeks on that side of the ball for Arkansas State to close out the year, the coaching staff has likely been emphasizing defense during all these Bowl practices.

Prior to giving up 32 and 50 points respectively to end the regular season, Arkansas State went six straight games of allowing 24 points or less. Granted the competition in the Sun Belt isn't what it is in other conferences, but this team can play some great defense when called upon and were actually 1-5 O/U to finish the year.

They'll definitely be ready for this Middle Tennessee attack that's probably cooled off a bit during these few weeks off, and with a 12-31-1 O/U run as a program in their last 44 non-conference games, I just don't get all the love for the 'over' here.

Middle Tennessee doesn’t exactly face elite competition Conference USA either, but the fact that they are 0-4-1 O/U in their last five against teams with a winning record suggests that offense doesn't always show up against decent competition. And although the offense got much of the praise down the stretch, this is still a team that went 2-9-1 O/U this season and were only lined with a total higher than 60 points once.

Yes, the two 'overs' occurred in their final three games, but the perception of them being a high-scoring team that loves shootouts just simply doesn't equate with the reality of this program right now. So while everyone believes this will be a back-and-forth affair, I've got no quarrels about siding with the books on this 'under' because if these betting percentages hold, oddsmakers will definitely be looking for some defense to be played.

Saturday's Early Games Tips
December 14, 2017
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

**Troy vs. North Texas**

New Orleans Bowl History

-- The Troy Trojans (10-2 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) of the Sun Belt Conference meet the North Texas Mean Green (9-4 straight up, 8-5 against the spread), runners-up in Conference USA, at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana for the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. It's a matchup between former conference rivals, as North Texas was a part of the Fun Belt, Sun Belt until moving to C-USA in 2013. Troy opened as a 5 1/2-point favorite, and the line has reached as high as a touchdown before settling in at 6 1/2 as of Thursday morning. The total has been as low as 60 before reaching and holding steady around 62.

-- The Trojans enter the bowl on a six-game win streak, and they have covered three in a row. They also have a victory against a Power 5 team, a 24-21 victory at Louisiana State back on Sept. 30. The Trojans won 10 games last season after topping Ohio University by a 28-23 count in the Dollar General Bowl. They're looking for a three-game bowl win streak against their old friends from Denton, Texas. The Trojans turned a lot of heads with 38.7 points per game during their impressive six-game run, and the play of senior QB Brandon Silvers has been a major reason for their success.

-- Silvers and the offensive unit made a lot of headlines, but the defense deserves a lot of attention, too. Troy led the nation in red-zone defense, limiting their opponents to 23 scores on 39 attempts. The Troy defense allowed just six rushing scores, 10 passing touchdowns and seven field goals in the 39 attempts inside their 20. The D was good outside of the red zone, too, posting 101 tackles for loss while ranking 11th in the country in scoring defense by giving up just 17.5 points per game (PPG). If Troy is going to be beaten, it might be through the air, as they allowed 225.3 yards per game to rank 70th in the nation.

-- The offense for Troy ranked 48th in total yards, posting 417.1 yards per game while finishing with 30.0 PPG, good for 50th in the land. The kicking game was an adventure, as they were able to muster just 57.9 percent on their attempts, checking in 114th in the country. That's something to watch in a close game. Silvers threw for 2,985 yards, 13 touchdowns and six interceptions while also adding four scores with his legs. However, Silvers won't be confused with a dual-threat option, as he leaves the rushing to Jordan Chunn, Josh Anderson and Jamarius Henderson. Chunn led the club with 774 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 5.0 yards per tote. Anderson and Henderson also found the end zone four times.

-- On the receiving end, four players were good for at least 31 receptions. WR Deondre Davis led the way with 48 receptions, 628 yards, four touchdowns and 13.1 yards per catch. WR Damion Willis was good for 31 receptions and 485 yards, posting an impressive 15.6 yards per grab, but he ended up celebrating in the end zone just once. WR Emanuel Thompson was second on the club with 38 snags and 11.1 yards per reception. Former Mississippi Gulf Coast CC standout WR Tevaris McCormick was also able to gather 32 balls for 314 and two touchdowns working out of the slot. Chunn is a threat out of the backfield, too, hauling in 28 passes for 204 yards.

- As mentioned, if you're going to beat Troy's defense it will be through the air. That's where North Texas excelled on offense, led by the dynamic QB Mason Fine. He completed 64.3 percent of his passes for 3,749 yards with 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He'll need to be good, as the team could again be without their leading rusher, RB Jeffery Wilson. He missed the past two games due to a broken bone in his foot, and he appears unlikely to play in NOLA. If not, the tailback responsibilities will fall to Nic Smith, who had 665 yards and six touchdowns. However, Wilson's 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns are tough to replace, as the Mean Green found out in the Conference USA Championship loss to Florida Atlantic.

-- Unlike the Trojans, UNT was very solid in the kick game. They converted 90.5 percent of their field-goal attempts, ranking third in the nation in the category. Overall they were 19th in total yards (467.2 per game), 21st in passing yards (291.0 per game) and 20th in points scored (35.9 PPG). On the defensive side of the ball they were 97th in the country with 431.2 yards per game allowed, while being gouged for 208.1 yards per game, 107th in the nation.

-- Join Wilson on the shelf is WR Jalen Guyton, who is officially listed as questionable for the bowl game due to concussion. He was the team's leading receiver with 764 yards and nine touchdowns. If he cannot play it would be Michael Lawrence, who led the team with 56 catches, attempting to pick up the slack. WR Rico Bussey Jr. was an important cog down the stretch, and he finished third on the team with 613 yards and six touchdowns. As mentioned, the kicking game was solid, and PK Trevor Moore has some length, booting through a 48-yarder this season while posting 109 total points.

-- As a single-digit favorite this season, Troy was 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, winning and covering each of their past two instances on the road at Georgia State Oct. 21 and at Arkansas State in the season finale Dec. 2.

-- As a single-digit underdog this season, UNT won three times outright, going 3-1 SU/ATS, including wins at Southern Mississippi, at home against Texas-San Antonio and at Louisiana Tech.

-- Troy is 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games against teams with a winning overall record, although they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven following a cover in their most recent game. They're also 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference games.

-- Troy is on a two-game winning streak in bowl games, with both victories coming against Ohio from the MAC. They're 3-3 all-time in bowl games, going 2-1 in their three previous appearances in New Orleans.

-- North Texas is 7-1 ATS in their past eight non-conference tilts, and 4-1 ATS in their past five overall. The 'over' has cashed in six bowl games in a row for UNT, too, although the 'under' is 12-4 in their past 16 overall and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning record.

-- UNT lost their postseason game against Army in the Heart of Dallas Bowl last December, 38-31, and they have dropped three of their past four bowl games. They're also 1-3 all-time in the New Orleans Bowl, with their lone win coming against Cincinnati in 2002. The Mean Green are 2-6 all-time in bowl games.

-- These teams last met Sept. 22, 2012, and it was Troy coming away with a 14-7 victory in Denton in a game which easily hit the 'under'.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State**

Cure Bowl History

-- In the Autonation Cure Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. it will be Western Kentucky (6-6 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) squaring off against Sun Belt representative Georgia State (6-5 straight up, 4-7 against the spread).

-- The Hilltoppers from Conference USA had an up and down season. After Oct. 20 they were sitting at 5-2 SU, but they dropped four of their final five games and needed overtime to win against Middle Tennessee Nov. 17 to secure bowl eligibility. Western Kentucky also had difficulty away from home, going 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS. They also failed to cover eight of their first nine games, but managed to cover two of their three final outings.

-- Western Kentucky ranked ninth in the nation in passing yards per game, posting 333.7 yards. They were awful running the ball, however, averaging just 66.9 yards per game to finish 130th in the nation. The kicking game was an adventure, too, converting just 60.0 percent of their field goals to check in 109th in the country. Western Kentucky allowed at least 30 points per game in each of their past six outings after giving up 23 or fewer points in each of their first six outings.

-- On the defensive side of the ball, the Toppers allowed 373.7 yards per game to rank 50th, while giving up just 201.1 yards per game through the air to rank 37th in the country. They were mediocre against the rush, yielding 172.6 yards per game to rank 77th.

-- Georgia State heads into their bowl game with 385.1 yards per game, ranking 87th in the country. A majority of their offensive output came through the air, as they ranked 31st in the land with 270.2 yards per outing, while managing just 114.9 yards per game on the ground to rank 117th. They struggled to put up points, too, posting just 19.7 points per game to check in 119th in offense, worst among all bowl teams. A lot of their struggles to put points on the board were their failures in the kicking game, converting just 50.0 percent of their field goals, ranking 122nd in the country.

-- Georgia State QB Conner Manning completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 2,870 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions while he also rushed for a score. The Panthers didn't do a lot on the ground, as their leading rusher Glenn Smith had 521 yards and three touchdowns, but just 3.5 yards per attempt. Runner-up Kyler Neal was even worst at just 2.9 yards per attempt, but he led the team with four rushing touchdowns.

-- WR Penny Hart is the man to watch in blue, as he hauled in 73 receptions for 1,094 yards and eight scores, averaging 15.0 yards per reception. He'll be the player Western Kentucky needs to attempt to shut down. Glenn Smith came out of the backfield to gather 43 receptions for 342 yards and a score. WR Tamir Jones was also a threat in the pass game with 10.9 yards per reception, although he failed to reach the end zone.

-- WKU QB Mike White had a very common name, but his game was anything but common. He completed 65.6 percent of his pass attempts for 3,826 yards with 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while he was able to punch in six touchdowns on the ground. RB D'Andre Ferby averaged just 3.2 yards per game on his 112 attempts, but he still led the team with 362 yards and three touchdowns. As mentioned, running the ball isn't the strong suit of the Hilltoppers. In the receiving game it was WR Nacarius Fant leading the charge with 67 grabs, 634 yards and four touchdowns. WR Lucky Johnson managed a team-best 16.0 yards per catch with 592 yards and three touchdowns. TE Deon Yelder was a handful for opposing defenses, too, grabbing 47 receptions for 576 yards and five scores.

-- The Hilltoppers finished 3-9 ATS in their 12 games overall, and they are 1-4 ATS in their past five tries against teams from the Sun Belt Conference. They're also 0-4 ATS in their past four non-conference games, while going just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 attempts on fieldturf surfaces. The 'over' is 4-0 in WKU's past four neutral-site games, and 5-2 in their past seven overall. The over is also 16-5-1 in their past 22 games against teams with a winning overall record.

-- The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their past four games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their past five on fieldturf. As far as totals, the 'under' is 4-1 in their past five non-conference games, while going 22-7 in their past 29 games overall.

-- This will be just the fifth bowl appearance for the Hilltoppers, although it will be their fourth straight season playing in a postseason game. They won the Bahamas Bowl in 2014, and the Miami Beach Bowl in 2015, under Jeff Brohm, and they pushed aside Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl last season by a 51-31 count. If the past three years are any indication, Western is coming to play offense. They have averaged 48.3 PPG over their past three bowls, scoring at least 45 in each outing.

-- Georgia State has just one previous appearance in a bowl game, and that was in the 2015 Autonation Cure Bowl back on Dec. 19, 2015. They came up short against San Jose State by a 27-16 count in that one. These teams met once before back on Nov. 2, 2013 in Atlanta, with the Hilltoppers besting the Panthers by a 44-28 count.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS Sports Network.

Proximity to location a big factor for college football teams during bowl season
By: Ashton Grewal

Dec 14, 2017 |

There are three things you need to know before you bet any college football game this bowl season: who’s playing, what’s the pointspread and where is it being played.

Last year teams that traveled fewer miles than their opponents went 29-12 straight up (22-19 ATS) in the 41 college football bowls including the national championship game.

This wasn’t a one-year fluke either. Steve Yoost submitted a study to the Sport Journal in 2009 on the geographical effects on college bowl games. He looked at all 47 BCS bowl games from 1998 to 2009 to try and determine how proximity to a bowl game location can factor as an advantage.

He found that teams with the shorter trip covered the spread at a 55 percent rate (26-21) and 58 percent (24-17) when excluding games with negligible distance differences between the two traveling teams.

Yoost concluded the bowl system needs to be changed so that there wouldn’t be as much of a built-in advantage for schools playing in their own backyard. The problem is, of course, the people deciding the matchups aren’t interested in making things fair. They want the games to sellout and there to be enough local interest so that tickets can be marked up.

It’s much easier to drum up interest when one of the teams playing is essentially a home team. Take Florida Atlantic for example. The Owls will be playing in their home stadium for this year’s Boca Raton Bowl. Last year’s announced attendance for the game was a little over 25,000 in a stadium that holds 30,000, but pictures tell a story different story.

The Boca Raton Bowl committee is thrilled to have a locate team to pedal in its quest to sell this game out. Florida Atlantic opened as 17.5-point chalk against Akron but the line was quickly bet up to 22.5.

Here are a few more games with a large disparity in distance between the invited schools.

Military Bowl
Navy vs. Virginia
Odds: Pick, 55
Location: Navy’s home field

Liberty Bowl
Memphis vs. Iowa State
Odds: Memphis -3.5, 66
Location: Memphis’ home field

Orange Bowl
Miami vs. Wisconsin
Odds: Wisconsin -6.5, 45
Location: Miami’s home field

Belk Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
Odds: Wake -3, 64.5
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC – a little over an hour away from Wake’s campus.