College Football Bowl Line Report December 12
Date 11th Dec 2017
Author Adam Burke
Last Updated: 2017-12-11
In lieu of doing an Opening Line Report for the bowl season, since lines have already been posted for about a week, we’ll just be taking a look at the games coming up that have seen some line moves or some of the news and notes that are creating adjustments. Now that we have reached game week, we’ve got some moves on those early bowl games.
These lines will see flurries of activity. They’ll sit untouched for the most part for a while and then see some action that forces the oddsmakers to adjust. Then they will sit dormant again. Lots of action will come in on game day for these games, as bettors want to be as certain as possible with injury situations, players going to the NFL, and coaching scenarios.
Here is the College Football Line Update for December 11:
North Texas vs. Troy (-6.5, 62) – We’ve seen some Troy money hit the board on game week. This looks like a pretty tight line and a matchup with two invested teams. The total has gone up a couple of points here in a battle of two teams in the top 45 in terms of tempo. A fast-paced, high-scoring game would seem to favor the Mean Green a little bit more, but the market seems to disagree with Troy up from 5.5 to 6.5. Troy has taken the vast majority of the money thus far, both public and sharp.
Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (-6.5, 51.5) – The Hilltoppers are clearly the preferred side in the betting market. Western Kentucky moved up from 5 to as high as 6.5 out there in the market. Georgia State is one of the lowest power-rated teams in FBS to make it to a bowl game, so we’re probably seeing the numbers guys invested here, as well as those bettors who are familiar with Western Kentucky’s name. Georgia State isn’t exactly a well-known program.
Oregon (-7.5, 59.5) vs. Boise State – This number hasn’t moved a whole lot. The initial wave of action that drove the line from 5 to 7.5 seemed to be enough to stop the action. Sportsbooks are certainly wishing that they opened Oregon -7 -115, since that probably would have been a good opener. But, they didn’t, so they moved quickly and now have settled in. That is a good spot for them to be for right now, though I would suspect we see some public money hit Boise State with the Ducks having a down year. Bettors just looking for action may not realize that Justin Herbert missed most of the season and may focus on Willie Taggart’s departure, which, by the way, did nothing to the line.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Arkansas State (-3.5, 62) – Books that opened the total lower than 62 have seen some investment on the over. We’re also seeing a few nibbles on the Arkansas State carrot now that we’ve gotten to game week. Bookmaker is dealing -4 on the Red Wolves. The rest of the market is sitting 3.5 and none of them have any additional juice on the line, so that is just one shop either showing some sharp action or anticipating some based on its clientele. We should see this one move closer to kickoff, but the action could also be quite split.
Akron vs. Florida Atlantic (-22.5, 61.5) – We reached a stopping point with this number after the initial wave of action. It certainly feels like the sharp guys have already extracted the line value out of it. Public piggybackers will come in as game day approaches. The total did peak at 64.5 at BetOnline, but has come back down to 61.5 now.
Central Michigan vs. Wyoming (PK, 45) – Central Michigan is installed as a one-point favorite at The Greek and at Matchbook, the offshore exchange, so there may be some whispers out there that Josh Allen will be bypassing the bowl game to focus on the NFL. That would create a huge wave in the betting market. Most places are holding tight at pick ‘em or Wyoming -1, but this line is just waiting to swing.
Appalachian State at Toledo (-7.5, 63) – A little bit of Appalachian State investment has trickled in, but not enough to push this line down to 7 anywhere. This one seems to be holding steady just above that key number and the total is holding steady as well.
Utah (-7, 57) vs. West Virginia – The Utes were in the 6.5 range last time we checked in, but they have gone to the full 7 at this point. A West Virginia team without Will Grier is certainly watered-down and that seems to be the driving force behind the action that we’ve seen thus far. The total has gone up from 54.5 to 57, which is rather interesting, but Utah is playing at a quicker tempo this season.
Northern Illinois vs. Duke (-5, 47.5) – With some of the uncertainty about David Cutcliffe off the table, the Blue Devils have been a popular bet over the last week. The Blue Devils actually opened as low as 3.5 at 5Dimes, but have shot up to as high as 5.5 at Bookmaker. We may see a 6 with the way that this line is trending.
Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State (-4.5, 63) – We’ve seen some pretty big investment on the Hokies over the last week. We’re moving through numbers that aren’t really key numbers, but a two-point move against a team that got a lot of steam throughout the season feels pretty significant. The Cowboys were a 6.5-point favorite at open, but the Justin Fuente believers are out in full force to push this number up.
Utah State (-4, 61) vs. New Mexico State – Most of the 3.5s that were in the market earlier are now gone. The Aggies of Logan are up to -4 against the Aggies of Las Cruces. We’ll have to wait and see if that is a true position or if the market is just trying to sweeten the pot with New Mexico State. Right now, it’s tough to tell.
USC vs. Ohio State (-7.5, 64.5) – The Buckeyes are currently the preferred side for the Cotton Bowl. There were some 6.5s out there, but those have been replaced by juiced 7s or 7.5s. The Buckeyes have the nation’s best coach with extra prep time, except for maybe Dabo Swinney, so this early investment isn’t a big surprise.
South Carolina vs. Michigan (-7.5, 42.5) – The Gamecocks have taken a little bit of investment since we last checked on this game. South Carolina fired offensive coordinator Kurt Roper, so there is a bit of an unknown factor with them. Also, with a low total and a high spread, it stands to reason that numbers guys would enter the market on the dog.
LSU (-3, 51.5) vs. Notre Dame – The 2.5s are all gone on the Tigers, as LSU has moved up to a full field goal favorite in the Fiesta Bowl. There are some questions as to whether or not Derrius Guice will play for LSU or focus on the NFL, but bettors don’t seem all that concerned at this juncture. With a lot of time until the game, we’ll likely see some things move around.
Alabama (-2.5, 47) vs. Clemson – Bookmaker made the leap to -3 and others have followed suit. Those that are still sitting on 2.5 are forcing Bama backers to pay a little extra juice on the Crimson Tide. Alabama is taking on the money thus far and it has been pretty one-sided overall. Most will wait this game out, as they should, but for those that have gone into the pool, they’re on the side of the rope that Alabama is on.