College Football Championship Week Betting News and Notes

Pac 12 Championship Game: Arizona State vs. Stanford
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com

Matchup: Arizona State vs. Stanford
Location: Sun Devil Stadium ~ Tempe, Arizona
Line: Arizona State -3. Total 56

Keys to Victory for Arizona State

-The Run Defense for ASU will be the most important unit on the field for either team. It ranks fourth in the conference against the run, yielding 133.5 yards per game. In order to win this game, they're going to have to limit Stanford's control of the ball and force Kevin Hogan to make plays on his own.
-Will Sutton and Davon Coleman are absolute beasts on the Defensive Line. They pass the "eye test" as so many pro scouts like to reference, and will be a big test for the Cardinal.
-Taylor Kelly has seemed to mastered the zone-read offense. He's perfect in Coach Todd Graham's system, and is the biggest reason why ASU is in the title game.
-Star RB Marion Grice is questionable for the game, but backup D.J. Foster filled in admirably against Arizona last week. Foster will need to replicate his 123 yard-2 touchdown performance.
-Alden Darby, Robert Nelson, and Osahon Irabor have combined for 13 interceptions. The Sun Devil secondary is greatly improved from past seasons.

Keys to Victory for Stanford

-Most old pro-style teams like to set up the run in order to throw the ball. Stanford follows that model with great efficiency. Tyler Gaffney needs to consistently gain positive yards in order to loosen up the Defense.
-Kevin Hogan has not progressed like most people thought he would this season, but the 6'4 Junior is still a very efficient QB.
-Stanford's Offensive Line is very experience and very good at both run and pass defense. They have 1 Pac 12 1st teamer, and 3 Pac 12 2nd teamers. Khalil Weekes centers the line and leads the way for a unit that features many future NFL players.
-Shayne Skov and Trent Murphy have had excellent seasons and will certainly be tested this week. The two are likely to see action on Sundays next season.
-Ty Montgomery is arguably the most explosive Wide Receiver in the Pac 12. While Brandin Cooks and Paul Richardson finished ahead of him in Pac 12 WR voting, Montgomery's specialty at returning kicks brings another layer to his game.

Final Word: You could go on and on about these two teams as their depth is what has brought each of them 1 game from a trip to Pasadena. In the end, I think the most underrated unit of the game, the Arizona State Defense, will be the biggest key to a Sun Devil victory.

Prediction: Arizona State -3

ACC Championship Game: Duke vs Florida State
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com

In one of this season's most unlikely stories, the Duke Blue Devils have gotten to double digit wins and an ACC title berth. They face again almost insurmountable odds, needing to best the Florida State Seminoles to win the ACC. Jameis Winston has been unstoppable all season, and is a clear Heisman favorite just as a freshman.

The disparity between these two teams on offense is pretty huge. Despite averaging 33 points the Blue Devils have gone three and out on 22% of their drives this season. Duke does posses one of the better return games in the nation. They've scored four return touchdowns and are averaging 13.6 yards on punts and 26 yards on kickoffs.

The Seminoles have basically been able to have their way with opposing defenses, both through the air and on the ground. They only have gone three and out 19 times this season, good for a 12.8% mark. Winston has of course been great, completing 68.8% of his passes with 35 touchdowns and just eight picks. He's also hit 101 passes of more than 15 yards, driving his 11 yards per attempt mark. The run game is a three headed monster of Devonta Freeman, James Wilder Jr and Karlos Williams who have averaged 5.9, 7.1, and 8.2 yards per carry respectively. The trio has 30 rushing touchdowns, and has not had a game where they have not combined for at least 100 yards.

Defense has been the Blue Devils' calling card this year, lead by Kenny Anunike, a DE out of Ohio. He leads the team with 64 total tackles and has 13.5 of them for loss, also to lead the team. The secondary has been good as well, defending 13.9% of the passes thrown against them, having picked off 16 of them.
The FSU defense has been very good this season, with 27 players sporting at least one tackle for loss. Timmy Jernigan has 10.5 from his defensive tackle spot, with a pair of QB hurries to go with his 4 sacks. The Noles have only allowed 11 points per game this season, and completely dismantled Clemson in Carolina.

Duke should have no chance in this game. FSU is better in every category, and has controlled every game they've played. But thats also what folks have been saying all season about the Blue Devils, and they've consistently proven people wrong. If FSU allows themselves to take Duke as lightly as they did BC, the Blue Devils have had a penchant for making mistakes go their way. This is too unlikely to happen though with FSU knowing their trip to the National Championship depends on this game now. They should roll big.

Big Ten Championship Game: Ohio State vs. Michigan State
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com

Matchup: Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium ~ Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Ohio State -5.5. Total 51.5

Keys to Victory for Ohio State

-Bradley Roby and Doran Grant will perhaps be OSU's most important players on defense. The two DBs will likely see plenty of 1 on 1 matchups as Michigan State will likely run a power running game, forcing OSU to load the box.
-MLB Curtis Grant is Questionable for the game and will not be at 100% regardless. Ryan Shazier, who has been on an absolute tear in the past month, will be asked to come up big yet again.
-Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde so have big games. Obviously.
-The three all Big 10 seniors on the offensive line. They'll be facing the best defense they've seen all season. Possibly the best defense in the nation all together. Jack Mewhort, Andrew Norwell, and Corey Linsley will need to replicate their all-conference performances once more for a championship.

Keys to Victory for Michigan State

-QB Connor Cook will be the most important player in the entire game. That sounds ridiculous seeing as how Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, and a slew of defensive stars on both sides of the ball will be taking the field, but throw everything else out the window. Michigan State HAS to have a very efficient game on offense in order to win. They'll slow Miller and Hyde, but they certainly will not stop them.
-Jeremy Langford is a powerful runner, but will need his Offensive Line to come up big for him. Jack Allen centers an OL that has protected the QB very well, while enabling Langford to average nearly 5 yards per carry.
-The nation's number 1 ranked defense will be asked to face their toughest task yet. In fact, they'll be asked to face a team that is leagues ahead of what they've seen this season. If they want to shut their critics up about their weak schedule, they'll need to come up big here.
-Max Bullough specifically needs to have a big game. The Big 10 first team Linebacker will be shadowing Braxton Miller all day.
-You can't write an article about MSU without mentioning the "No Fly Zone." Drummond, Lewis, and Dennard have been incredible this season, regardless of the skill level of their opponents.

Big 12 Game of the Week: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com

In what will be the de facto Big 12 Championship game, Oklahoma State will face off with Oklahoma in the latest installment of the Bedlam Series. State with a win will be the Big 12 champ, and headed certainly for a BCS bowl. Oklahoma would like to start a new win streak which State had stopped in 2011.

When Oklahoma State has the ball:

The Cowboys have been pouring it onto teams since their 24-10 win over TCU in the middle of October. They’ve scored more than 40 points in all but one game, where they scored 38 against Texas. It’s a little surprising since they’ve averaged just 30.8 yards per drive and just under six yards per play. The turnaround the last month, as the Pokes beat ranked Texas and demolished Baylor, has been the play of Clint Chelf. In November Chelf has completed 61% of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns and just three ints. Its helped the team’s redzone efficiency greatly by going a perfect 19 for 19 on trips inside the opposition 20, scoring 18 TDs. Tracy Moore has also hit his stride in November, averaging 16.4 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns, including a hundred yard effort last week against Baylor. The offensive line has only allowed 4% of the Cowboys plays to end with negative yardage.

The Sooners defense has been solid all year in conference play, allowing just 5.3 yards per play and averaging 6.4 tackles for loss per game. They’re lead by sophomore Frank Shannon, who has 79 stops on the season with a pair of sacks and three more QB hurries. They have effectively shut down most passing games, allowing just a 54% completion rate and 6.3 yards per attempt. Zach Sanchez had defended 11 passes this season as a freshman, while Gabe Lynn leads the team with three interceptions. Teams have been able to find some open running room against Oklahoma, despite them allowing just 4 yards per carry. They’ve allowed 41 runs of more than 10 yards, or 11.1% of opponents carries.

When Oklahoma has the ball:

The Sooners offense really has not been very explosive this year. Just 15% of their plays have been big plays. And they’re averaging just 5.9 yards per play. Its been in large part because of the inconsistency surrounding the QB position. Trevor Knight will likely get the start again this weekend because of Blake Bell’s injury status, which he might be able to build on his first truly outstanding game last week against K State. Knight was able to complete 70% of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt. Knight might be best though on the run, where he’s averaged 7.7 yards per carry. The run game has been the strength for the Sooners this year, as Brennan Clay has averaged 6.3 yards per carry with six touchdowns. The team though is missing one of its best runners in Damien Williams who was dismissed from the team earlier this season. Jalen Saunders continues to be the most targeted receiver, but is averaging just 12.1 yards per catch. Jaz Reynolds is still the best big play threat, averaging a team best 16.8 yards per catch.

The Cowboys defense is one of the more underrated units in the nation, or it was until last week’s demolishing of Baylor. They forced the Bears into 18 third down situations and allowed just 7 of them to be converted, and recovered a season high three fumbles. They have 84 tackles for loss this season, lead by LB Caleb Leavy who has 11.5. Leavy has also picked off four passes and recorded 82 tackles this season, all team highs. Oklahoma State has been pretty solid against the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, and they’ve only surrendered eight touchdowns on the ground, just two in the last four weeks. The pass rush though is a bit weak, pressuring QBs on just 11% of their dropbacks.

Whats our Take:

The Cowboys are the better team here, and they’re fighting for a BCS bowl berth. So are the Sooners, but having to travel to Stillwater has been an uneasy task for teams this year. Both teams do carry in some momentum, but the Cowboys should be able to walk away as Big 12 champs, with just a letdown against WVU as their only blemish.

ACC Championship
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Florida State vs. Duke

Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Line, Total: Seminoles -29, 62

On Saturday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C., we get one of the most unlikely matchups in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game. The Florida State Seminoles (12-0 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) look to keep their national championship aspirations on track against the Duke Blue Devils (10-2 straight up, 10-2 against the spread). The Seminoles, No. 1 in the BCS rankings, opened as a 29 1/2-point favorite.

Duke surprised everyone but themselves, claiming the Coastal Division title, thanks in large part to a 5-0 record on the road this season. The Blue Devils are bowl eligible in consecutive years for the first time in school history, and this is their first double-digit wins season, and obviously their first trip to the ACC title game.

Duke ranked 40th in the nation this season with 33.7 points per game, and they racked up 422.2 yards per game, which ranked 58th in the nation. That is the same ranking for their defense, allowing 395.2 yards per game, and the Blue Devils yielded 23.0 points per game which was good for 37th overall in the land. And if you take out a 58-55 loss against Pittsburgh back on Sept. 21, that average tumbles to just 19.8 points per game.

The Blue Devils use a two-pronged quarterback attack with Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette. Boone completed 66.2 percent of his pass attempts for 1,695 yards, 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while also running for four scores. Connette rolled up 13 passing touchdowns, and 13 rushing scores. When the Blue Devils are passing, they look for WR Jamison Crowder (88-1,131-7) and TE Braxton Deaver (36-467-4). In addition, WR Max McCaffrey (24-268-4), the son of former NFL star Ed McCaffrey, has emerged as a nice tertiary receiving target.

The two teams did not meet this season, but they did play in Tallahassee last year on Oct. 27, 2012. The Seminoles blasted the Blue Devils by a 48-7 score, and FSU leads the all-time series 18-0.

The Seminoles have a Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Jameis Winston, who threw for 3,490 yards with 35 touchdowns and eight interceptions. So far, an off-field sexual assault allegation and investigation by the Tallahassee Police Department involving Winston has not seemed to be much of a distraction. The Seminoles rank seventh in the nation in total yards (526.1 yards per game), 14th in the nation in passing yards (321.3 yards per game), and second in the nation in points scored (53.7 points per game).

The offense seems to get all of the credit and headlines, but it is the defense that has been perhaps most impressive. The Seminoles rank first in the nation, allowing just 153.0 passing yards per game, and they're also first in the country by allowing just 11.0 points per game. Lastly, the 'Noles rank fourth overall in total yards allowed (271.0 total yards per game). The Seminoles plan to key on Crowder, attempting to take Duke's big-play threat out of the game, forcing someone else to step up and beat them.

When the Seminoles have the ball, Winston will be look for WRs Rashad Greene (61-914-9) and Kelvin Benjamin (45-838-12). The Blue Devils would do well to keep tabs on TE Nick O'Leary (30-509-7), the grandson of golfing legend Jack Nicklaus. The Seminoles are also quite adept at running the football, too, as Devonta Freeman (144-852-12) and Karlos Williams (79-650-10) each totaled double-digit scoring totals. And James Wilder Jr. (73-517-8) also made plenty of waves, averaging 7.1 yards per carry.

Betting Trends to Watch

The Seminoles are 10-2 ATS this season, and 5-0 ATS in their past five games overall. They're also 11-2-1 ATS in their past 14 neutral-site games, failing to cover in this game against Georgia Tech last season. The Seminoles are also 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine games in the month of December, 4-0 ATS in their past four against a team with a winning record, 5-1 ATS in their past six ACC games, and 10-1 ATS in their past 11 games on a grass surface.

The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS this season, and they have covered each of their past seven games. Duke has also covered each of their past six games on grass, and they're 4-0 ATS in their past four tilts against a team with a winning record.

In head-to-head matchups, the Seminoles have dominated this series. They are 18-0 straight up all-time against the Blue Devils, and they have covered in each of the past five meetings.

The total is set at 61½, and the 'over' has been the trend lately for these two sides. However, it remains to be seen whether Duke can move the ball against FSU's vaunted defense. The over is 12-5-1 in Duke's past 18 conference games, and 15-7-1 in their past 23 games on a grass surface. The under is 4-1 in Duke's past five against a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in FSU's past four neutral-site games, but 7-1 in their past eight ACC battles, and 5-1 in their past six against a team with a winning record. The over is also 8-2 in their past 10 on grass, and 10-2 in their 12 games overall this season.

Big Ten Championship
By ASAWins.com

Ohio State vs. Michigan State

Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
Line, Total: Buckeyes -5.5, 51.5

How They Got Here

Ohio State is off of a grueling win over rival Michigan last week. Credit the Wolverines, who came to play last week; but its concerning that the Buckeyes allowed 603 yards and 41 points to a team that had tallied just 708 yards and 46 points the previous three games combined. Ohio State’s defense locked down when it needed to: a two-point conversion attempt that would’ve given Michigan the lead with 32 seconds remaining. Now Ohio State is a win away from a 13-0 record and a strong shot at a national championship appearance.

Michigan State ended its regular season with a much less exciting 14-3 win over Minnesota. It wasn’t an overwhelming win for MSU, who gained just 324 yards and tallied 15 first downs, but it ended the Spartan’s season with an unscathed Big Ten record. MSU is back in Indianapolis for the 2nd time in three years (lost to Wisconsin in 2011) with a great shot at an elusive BCS Bowl bid.

When Ohio State Has the Ball

This game is a major contrast of strengths. Ohio State ranks 3rd nationally with 48.2 PPG as the Buckeyes have scored 40+ points in 10 of 12 games this season. Michigan State ranks 4th nationally with just 11.8 PPG allowed. The Spartans have held five of its last six opponents to six points or fewer and haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 28 points this season. OSU’s QB Braxton Miller and RB Carolos Hyde anchor this offense that averages 322.1 rush YPG (2nd nationally). Hyde has come on strong after an early season suspension. He’s averaging 166 rush YPG on 8.1 YPC with 14 touchdowns over the past seven games.

Michigan State ranks 1st against the run (65 YPC allowed), 1st in opponents YPC (2.2 YP C), and 1st in opponents rushing first downs per game (3.9). Just two teams have rushed for over 100 yards against Michigan State this season and only one averaged more than 3.4 YPC. Whichever team wins the battle in the trenches will likely win the game. But Ohio State will also count on some big pass plays to set up the run. Miller is completing 65.7% of his passes with 21 TD and just 5 INT this year. He’s benefitted from defenses loading up the box, setting up favorable matchups on the outside. MSU doesn’t have to load the box and they have a fantastic secondary. Sparty ranks 1st in the Big Ten allowing just 173 pass YPG on 47.9 completion percentage. Opponents are averaging just 4.1 yards per pass with 11 TD and 16 INT this year.

When Michigan State Has the Ball

If Ohio State replicates the defensive effort it put forth against Michigan last week, it will be a long night for the Buckeyes in Indianapolis. The Spartans aren't an offensive juggernaut by any means, but this is arguably the most improved offense in the Big Ten. MSU has averaged 29.8 PPG in Big Ten play, led by a balanced attack of QB Cook and RB Langford. Cook has been extremely efficient and mistake free since becoming the Spartans starting QB. He has 17 TD’s and just 4 INT this year while leading MSU to an undefeated Big Ten mark. Langford, much like Hyde of OSU, has been absolutely on fire in the 2nd half of the season. He’s topped 100 yards in seven straight games (128 YPG) with 12 rushing TD over that span.

Ohio State’s stop-unit has been far from dominant lately as the Bucks have allowed 35+ points in two of the last three games. Their pass defense has been horrendous at times and it ranks 11th in the Big Ten allowing 256 pass YPG. They’ve allowed opposing QB’s to complete 60.6% with 23 pass TD compared to just 13 INT. Despite OSU’s inconsistencies in its pass defense, the Buckeyes are very good against the run. This group allows just 100 rushing yards per game, good for fifth nationally, which means MSU’s Cook will need to bring balance to Michigan State's offense with an accurate passing attack.

Previous Meetings

Michigan State won at Ohio State, 10-7, in 2011. Ohio State won at Michigan State, 17-16, in 2012. In 2012’s matchup, OSU’s Miller was briefly knocked out of the game on the first series. Miller returned, of course, and finished with 23 carries for 136 yards to complement 179 passing yards and a touchdown. MSU didn’t have much of an offense to speak of last season, and they finished that game with 303 total yards and only one offensive touchdown. The Buckeyes are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings overall.

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) on a roll posting a 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS record have been installed double-digit chalk vs archrival Sooners (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS). The Bedlam game is motivation enough for host Cowboys but gunning for the Big 12 title and an automatic berth in a bowl game wouldn't expect Pokes to suffer a set back with it's advantage on both sides of the ball. Pokes are averaging 41.4 PPG on home turf, allowing a punny 13.0 per/contest. Sooner score just 28.4 PPG on the road, surrendering 29.6 PPG. Laying double-digits in a rivalty game can give pause but Pokes 9-3 ATS as chalks of 10.5 to 21, 14-4 ATS in home games are worth a second look vs a Sooner squad 6-12 ATS off B-2-B SU wins and ridding a 4-8 ATS skid vs the conference.

Florida State vs. Duke

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship has Florida State Seminoles (12-0, 10-2 ATS) a whopping 29.5 point favorite against the Duke Blue Devils (10-2 SU/ATS). A hefty number but not surprising, Seminoles have owned the series winning fifteen consecutive meetings cashing ten tickets (10-5 ATS) missing the loot only when laying 31 or more points. Seminoles also enter a sparkling 11-2-1 ATS in their past fourteen neutral-site games, 6-1 ATS laying 21.5 to 31 points.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State

Ohio State looks to make its way to Pasadena with a win over Michigan State in the Big Ten title game Saturday. The Buckeyes (12-0 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) have a huge advantage in offense racking up 48.2 points/game with Spartans (11-1, 7-4-1 ATS) managing a lowly 29.4 per/contest. On the surface, seems like a mismatch but Spartans on an eight game win streak along with it's top-notch defensive unit that sports the nation’s best total defense (273.3 YPG), #1 rushing defense (64.4 YPG) and 4th-ranked scoring defense (11.8 PPG) will give Buckeyes a run for the money. The betting market has Buckeyes 5.5 point favorites. Dangerous betting territory as Buckeyes are on an 2-4 ATS skid, Spartans enter 7-2-1 ATS last ten, 3-0 ATS last three at neutral site, 4-0-1 ATS last five as underdogs.

NCAAF Week 15

UConn beat Temple/Rutgers last two weeks after an 0-9 start during which the coach got fired; they’re 1-5 at home this year with loss to I-AA Towson State and 24-21 loss to Michigan. Huskies scored 28 points in each of last two games, after scoring 21 in three games and less in all the others. Memphis is on road for third time in four weeks; Tigers are 3-1 vs spread on road, 2-8 SU vs D-I teams, beating Arkansas State and winning at woeful South Florida. Memphis lost four games by 7 or less points, including games with bowl bound Middle Tennessee (17-15), Louisville (24-17). While UConn comes in on up-tick, Memphis lost at home as 9-point favorites to Temple, so pretty much the opposite for them. These first-time conference rivals have not played in last fifteen years.

Underdogs covered last eight South Florida-Rutgers games, with Rutgers winning six of last seven and USF losing last three visits here, by 3-31-3 points. Three of Knights’ last four series wins were by 10+ points. Rutgers needs this win to be bowl eligible; they’ve allowed 40.3 ppg in losing last three games, scoring 17 in each- they’re 1-6 vs spread as a favorite this year, 1-4 at home, with home wins vs I-A teams by 18-4-3 points. Bulls scored 12.4 ppg in losing last five games; they gave Central Florida a good game (20-23, +26) last week and are 4-0 vs spread as a road underdog this year, losing away games by 15-12-3 points, with win at UConn October 12, which is their last win. In games with single digit spreads, Rutgers is 1-4 this year, USF 1-2.

Baylor beat Texas two of last three years, after losing 12 in row to Longhorns; Texas won six of last seven visits here, with all seven games decided by 21+ points. Underdogs covered four of last six series games. Bears are 12-2 vs spread in last 14 games as a home favorite, 5-0 this year, scoring an average of 65 ppg (yes 65 ppg) in its five home games vs D-I teams, with 41-12 win over Oklahoma closest of the five. Texas covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog; this is most points they’ve gotten in a game since 1998 at Nebraska. Longhorns This is last game ever at Floyd Casey Stadium; Baylor’s new stadium (House that RGIII Built?) opens next fall. Texas recovered from its 1-2 start to win seven of last eight games; they’re 2-1 as an underdog this year, with only non-cover a 38-13 home loss to Oklahoma State.

UL-Lafayette (-18) drilled South Alabama 52-30 LY, averaging 15+ yards/pass attempt, outrushing Jaguars 176-54, but USA is I-A newcomer and can become bowl eligible with win here- they’d be a hometown team for Compass Bowl, while ULL already knows they’re going to New Orleans Bowl. Teams that already know their bowl destination can be risky business as favorites trying to beat a team hungry to win to get to a bowl, especially their first bowl. Cajuns are 2-5 as favorites this year, failing cover last four tries, even though they won three of the four games. ULL won its last four road games since opening with money grab losses at Arkansas/K-State. USA is 3-2 at home, beating Kent State but losing to I-AA team; they’re 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this year.

Favorites are 4-0-1 vs spread in last five Central Florida-SMU games, with all five decided by 10+ points; home side won last four series games, with Knights losing 38-14 in last visit here. Mustangs need win to get bowl eligible after being spanked 34-0 at Houston last week. SMU is 2-2 at home vs I-A teams, scoring 43 ppg in the four games, wins over Temple/UConn, losses to Texas Tech/Rutgers- they only averaged 17.5 ppg in six home games. Red flag for Mustangs is total of 16 points scored in last two games. UCF won its last seven games, but five of the seven games were decided by 7 or less points; Knights are 1-6 in last seven tries as a conference road favorite; they are 4-4 as favorites this year, but 1-3 in last four tries. UCF is 5-0 on road, winning by 38-3-7-3-3- points.

Armadillosports.com

Six Burning Betting Questions for NCAAF Championship Saturday
By Dan Berlin
Covers.com

It’s Championship Week in college football. Here are six burning questions heading into Saturday’s six big matchups, with conference titles and BCS bids on the line.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-9.5, 57)

Will the Sooners be able to continue their domination over the Cowboys?

The bedlam rivalry game has been completely dominated by Oklahoma throughout the decades, with the Sooners holding an 82-18-7 record all-time in the series.

While Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is just 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS) versus the Sooners in his career, his lone victory came in 2011 - the last time OSU faced OU for a chance at a share of the Big 12 championship.

The Cowboys come in playing their best football of the season, fresh off convincing wins against nationally-ranked Baylor and Texas, two teams that have beaten the Sooners this season.

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-15, 71.5)

After back-to-back bad showings, can the Bears’ offense turn it around?

Baylor and its high-octane offense have limped to the finish line. After a humiliating 49-17 loss to Oklahoma State killed their national title hopes, the Bears barely hung on to defeat TCU 41-38 last week, as the nation’s No. 1 offense was held to under 400 total yards for the first time in 38 games.

But Baylor should get a major boost this Saturday when it returns to Waco, where a record crowd is expected for the last ever BU game at Floyd Casey Stadium. The ninth-ranked Bears are 9-0 SU/ATS in their last nine at home, including five straight wins against ranked opponents.

Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers (-2, 58)

Is this a possible letdown spot for Auburn or are the Tigers truly a “team of destiny?”

After the “Immaculate Deflection” in the last minute against Georgia and Chris Davis’s 109-yard missed field goal return for a touchdown to defeat the mighty Crimson Tide, it certainly looks like the third-ranked Tigers are destined to win the BCS title in 2013.

But wait just a minute. Those other Tigers from Mizzou may have a little something to say about that.

Missouri is 5-0 SU/ATS on the road in 2013 and QB James Franklin and the Missouri offense looked sharp in last week’s 28-21 win over Texas A&M - one of the big reasons why bettors have pushed the number down from its opening of Auburn as 3-point favorites down to as low as 1.5.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles (-29, 62)

Can upstart Duke actually keep it close vs. the top-ranked Seminoles?

David Cutcliffe and the No. 20 Blue Devils might be the feel-good story of the college football season, but they could be in for a rude awakening come Saturday.

Florida State has won 14 straight meetings vs. Duke dating back to 1994. But take a closer look inside the numbers and you’ll find FSU is a perfect 9-0 ATS in games where they were favored against Duke by 30 points or less, and just 1-4 ATS when favored by 31 or more. Saturday’s game opened with FSU as a 30-point favorite and has been bet down to 29 points.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans (+5.5, 51.5)

Can Ohio State run the ball successfully against MSU’s No. 1 rush defense?

The Buckeyes feature college football’s second best rushing offense (321.3 yards per game), led by RB Carlos Hyde and QB Braxton Miller, who’ve combined for nearly 2,200 yards on the ground this season.

On the other hand, the Spartans boast the nation’s top run defense, allowing a paltry 64.8 yards per game. So who has the edge?

Considering MSU has held 10 of 12 opponents to under 100 yards rushing and has allowed only 46 points over its past six games (7.7 ppg) – just five more points than the Buckeyes gave up to lowly Michigan last week - the Buckeyes and their rushing attack will certainly have their work cut out for them come Saturday.

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

Will home field prove to be the difference for ASU in its rematch with Stanford?

On the heels of a 42-28 loss at Stanford on Sep. 21, revenge will certainly be on the minds of Arizona State when it hosts the Cardinal in the Pac-12 championship game.

The Sun Devils are hot, having won seven straight, but are 0-3 SU (0-2-1 ATS) in their last three versus Stanford, including a 17-13 loss in Tempe back in 2010.

Any doubts surrounding Stanford’s ability to beat a team twice in the same season were answered just last year when it knocked off UCLA 27-24 in the conference championship after defeating the Bruins 35-17 during the 2012 regular season.

Mountain West Championship Game
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com

Matchup: Fresno State vs. Utah State
Location: Bulldog Stadium ~ Fresno, CA
Line: Fresno State -3.5. Total 60

Keys to Victory for Fresno State

-Derek Carr has passed for 4,462 yards and 45 touchdowns on the year. The future NFL QB is facing a solid defense, but should be able to move the ball in his final college game.
-Davante Adams has caught 113 passes for 1,477 yards and 22 touchdowns. Josh Harper sits in second on the team with 1,011 yards and 13 touchdowns on 79 catches. Adams is a real talent and not just a product of playing with Derek Carr. Look for him to find the endzone at least once.

-The Bulldog defense has been atrocious this season. They rank 85th in points allowed and 96th in total yards allowed. Part of this is because their offense scores at such a high rate so opposing teams have plenty of possessions. Even so, they have looked miserable in the secondary, and seem to only be getting worse. To prevent further disappointment, the pass rush will have to show up this week. After recording a Mountain West leading 31 sacks on the season, they did not reach David Fales once in their lone loss of the season.

Keys to Victory for Utah State

-Star QB Chuckie Keeton has been injured for most of the season. Freshman quarterback Darrell Garretson has passed for 1,127 yards and nine touchdowns with just four interceptions during the better part of seven games in Keeton’s absence.
-Travis Reynolds has been Garretson's favorite target on the team, catching 51 passes for 832 yards and four touchdowns.
-Joey DeMartino leads the 41st-ranked rushing attack with 1,024 yards and 12 touchdowns.

-Utah State actually has a very solid defense in a conference that likes to throw the ball around, ranking seventh in points allowed and 13th in total yards allowed per game. They've allowed and average of 10 points and 279 yards in the past 5 games.

Prediction: I think Fresno State should get the victory as their offense will be too much for a very game Aggie defense. I wouldn't consider betting the -3.5 however, due to the fact that their defense simply can't be trusted. We're talking about a team that had no answer to San Jose St, and also allowed 51 points to Rutgers.

SEC Championship Game: Auburn vs Missouri
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com

These two Tiger teams face off in one of the more unlikely SEC matchups. Missouri was coming off just a dreadful first season in the SEC, and Auburn was experiencing one of the worst in the programs history. They had combined to be just 2-14 last season against SEC foes. This season though theyve combined to win 20 games, knocking off favorites like Georgia, Texas A&M, and of course Alabama. This game should promise to be close and exciting thoruought.

Both of these teams are powered by their run games on offense. Mizzou's top three rushers are each averaging better than six yards per carry, with Henry Josey leading the bunch. Josey should be able to break 1000 yards, sitting at 951 and having scored 13 touchdowns already this season. at just 190 pounds Josey would not be expected to be good in power situations, but he;s converted 54% of his third and short carries and is averaging 2.9 yards per carry in the redzone. He's taken over in the second halves of games as well, averaging nearly eight yards per carry. The Tigers form the plains though aren't to be outdone, as Tre Mason, Nick Marshall and Corey Grant each average better than 5.5 yards per carry, with Grant at 9.8/ Tre Mason is a workhorse back, carrying the ball 237 times, scoring 18 times and moving the chains on 72% of his third down carries.

Both offenses match up the same, the advantage in the passing game tilting heavily towards Mizzou. These Tigers have two excellent Wide Receivers in L'Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham who each have double digit TDs; the former has an 18 yards per catch average while the latter leads the team with 7 redzone touchdowns on his ten catches.

James Franklin of Missouri though might not have that much time to find his wideouts. Auburn has one of the best hurry rates in the nation, recording 97 QB hurries this season. Dee Ford is the most dangerous pass rusher they have, leading the team with 8 sacks and 16 QB hurries. They will also have to watch for Elijah Daniel, a freshman DE that has just two sacks, but could see that number blossom since he also has 11 hurries. This pressure though hasn't translated into great pass defense, with Auburn allowing 58% of passes to be completed for 7.3 yards per attempt.

This one should come down to the wire down in Atlanta. James Franklin looked much more comfortable last week against A&M than he had against Ole Miss the week before, completing 64.3% of his passes for 8.3 yards and a pair of TDs. Its unlikely though that they'll be able to generate enough negative plays against an Auburn offense that has gone three and out just 16.8% of their drives, and just 5 times the last three weeks. Auburn takes a close, exciting game.

C-USA Championship Game: Marshall vs Rice
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com

The Rice Owls and Marshall Thundering Herd rose this year to take the conference from usual favorites Tulsa and East Carolina. Marshall has done it by outracing opponents, running 78 plays a game and scoring 44 points. Rice on the other hand has been able to win close games all season, going 5-1 in games decided by one score.

When Marshall has the ball:
Rakeem Cato had been having a disappointing season before the month of November. Averaging a pedestrian 7.3 yards per attempt, with a 59% completion rate with just 15 touchdowns to six interceptions. Since November started though, he's completed 61% of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt, and has 19 touchdowns with just a pair of picks. Tommy Shuler has been the biggest recipient of the turnaround, posting three 100+ yard games and six touchdowns in the last month. The biggest reason though Marshall is averaging 38.5 yards per drive has been the play all season of the running back corps, lead by Essray Taliaferro. The senior back has a 1000 yard season to go along with a 5.4 yards per carry average and nine rushing touchdowns. Essray has gone seven for nine on third and short, and is averaging 3.8 yards per carry in the redzone. His backfield mate has been Steward Butler, an explosive runner who has 22 runs of ten yards or more on his 83 carries, and has scored eight times. The offensive line has kept things chugging by allowing just 6% of their plays to go for negative yardage.

The Owls' defense could be vulnerable to some of these runs, giving up 4.1 yards per carry this season. They have been tougher though this past month, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry and only four touchdowns in their three games on the ground. Leading tackler Michael Kutzler has 79 stops this season with six tackles for loss with a pair of sacks. The secondary has also been tough on opposing passers, allowing just half of their attempts to be completed for 6.7 yards per attempt. Bryce Callahan has defended eight passes, and intercepted three more this season as the best player in the secondary. He's also tenth on the team with 31 tackles.

When Rice has the ball:

The Owls' offense doesn't look fantastic. They've averaged just 30 yards per drive and are scoring just 30 points per game with a 5.4 yards per play average. They have been efficient though, going three and out on just 18.7% of their drives. The reason for the low offensive output is the poor QB play of Taylor McHargue. He's completed just 52% of his passes for seven yards per attempt. He's been brutal on third downs, completing only 44.7% of his passes and converting just 31% of those passes. The saving grace has been the backfield of Charles Ross and Jawon Davis. Ross has 36 runs of more than ten yards, and in the maroon zone has been electric, averaging 5.4 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns and nine of those big runs. Davis is another explosive runner, with 18 runs of more than 10 yards on his 88 carries, and has averaged 6.6 yards per carry in the redzone.

The Herd defense has made plays in the backfield all season, posting a tackle for loss on 10.2% of their plays. James Rouse has a team high 12 tackles for loss, with four sacks and five QB hurries. In large part this has helped stymie running games, since Marshall has allowed only 3.5 yards per carry. They have been somewhat vulnerable to the big run, allowing 11.1% of runs to go for more than 10 yards. Twelve Marshall players have intercepted a pass this season, with AJ Leggett leading the team with three picks, while the rest of the secondary has defended 52 passes this season.

Whats Our Take:

Marshall has to travel to Houston to play this game, which is a mixed bag for Rice. The Owls are better on offense on the road by about a half a yard, but defensively are far superior at home by more than a yard per play. It shouldn't matter though, as the Herd will ride a red hot Rakeem Cato and an aggressive defense to the C-USA championship.

Saturday's Big 12 Action
By Sportsbook.ag

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1)

Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Oklahoma State -9.5, 57

No. 6 Oklahoma State has a chance to win the Big 12 and earn a BCS bowl berth with a victory over in-state rival No. 18 Oklahoma as the Bedlam Series resumes on Saturday.

Last season, these two teams played one of the greatest games of the season, with the Sooners erasing an 11-point deficit in the second half to win a 51-48 overtime thriller in Norman. In that game, Landry Jones threw for 500 yards for Oklahoma, but he is no longer under center for the Sooners. The last time they visited Stillwater in 2011, the Sooners got absolutely drilled, losing 44-10. In that season, the Cowboys clinched a Big 12 title, the exact same opportunity that presents itself on Saturday.

Oklahoma is coming off a 41-31 victory on the road against Kansas State on Nov. 23, a game in which Brennan Clay rushed for 200 yards and two touchdowns. The win was significant for the Sooners, as they have had their problems on the road, going 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) away from home this season.

Oklahoma State is coming off a dominant 49-17 victory over then-No. 4 Baylor on Nov. 23, giving them the chance to earn a BCS bowl berth win a victory on Saturday. Oklahoma State (8-3 ATS) has been great since its shocking loss to West Virginia, winning seven straight games SU, and six straight games ATS, and posting at least 38 points in each of the past five contests where it has averaged 47.8 PPG. Mike Gundy has the Cowboys within one game of winning the Big 12 for a second time in the last three seasons, but nothing would make Bob Stoops happier than leading his Sooners to a victory over their hated rival, which would cause a three-way tie for the top spot in the Big 12 with these two schools plus the winner of Texas versus Baylor.

Stoops is 45-31 ATS (59%) as the Sooners head coach after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored, but Gundy is 18-4 ATS (82%) when favored by 3.5 to 10 points as the OSU head coach.

The quarterback position has been a carousel this season for Oklahoma, but QB Trevor Knight filled in admirably for the injured Blake Bell (concussion) in the last game, completing 14-of-20 passes for 171 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Like Bell, Knight is a threat running the ball from the quarterback position, as he also rushed for 82 yards on 5.9 YPC as well against K-State. Bell is likely to be active for this game, but Knight is expected to start. However, for the Sooners to have a chance to win the game, they will have to be able to run the ball. Oklahoma ranks 15th in the nation with 242.3 rushing YPG, and with RB Brennan Clay (843 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 6 TD), the team has a guy with the ability to wear down his opponent.

While the defense ranks 21st in the nation in scoring defense (21.1 PPG), it got exposed in the victory over the Wildcats. K-State wide receiver Tyler Lockett had a record setting day, constantly getting behind the Sooners secondary to a tune of 278 receiving yards and three touchdowns, including a 90-yarder. For the season, OU allows just 198 passing YPG (6.3 YPA) on 54.4% completions. Freshman CB Zack Sanchez changed last week's game in the fourth quarter with a 74-yard interception for a touchdown, but they must limit the big play of the Oklahoma State offense.

If it was not for a fluke loss in Morgantown, the Cowboys could find themselves in talks for a national title berth. Oklahoma State has been balanced on both sides of the ball this season, ranking 11th in FBS scoring (41.2 PPG) and 12th in scoring defense (18.8 PPG).

Cowboys Senior QB Clint Chelf (1,592 passing yards, 8.0 YPA, 14 TD, 5 INT) was outstanding against Baylor in the last game, throwing for 370 yards (14.8 YPA) and three touchdowns, while also scoring a rushing touchdown. Chelf has been on a tear in his past three games with 832 passing yards, 8 TD and just 1 INT.

After rushing for 315 yards during a two-game stretch versus Iowa State and Texas Tech, junior RB Desmond Roland has been able to rush for only 139 yards on 46 carries in three games since. Defenses have focused on shutting down the Cowboys' rushing attack and Chelf has stepped up and made all the big plays.

With the Sooners passing defense struggling as of late, the opportunity for running lanes may be open as they try and slow down Chelf and the Cowboys air attack. WRs Tracy Moore (595 rec. yards, 6 TD) and Josh Stewart (555 rec. yards, 2 TD) form one of the best receiving duos in the conference. Stewart has battled injuries, but was back in action against Baylor after missing the previous two games with a leg injury. With a week off, look for Stewart to more resemble the player that had 1,210 receiving yards last season.

The Cowboys defense has been terrific this year, and that is the biggest reason they are on the cusp of a Big 12 championship. Senior CB Justin Gilbert (6 INT) is one of the most dynamic players in the country, with the ability to make the big play at any given moment. He has six career returns for touchdowns, which is not only a Big 12 record, but he's also the leader among active NCAA players. Look for him to make a big play in his final career game in Stillwater. For the season, OSU allows 380 total YPG, including 250 passing YPG. But on the ground, it has held opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry.

Texas Longhorns (8-3) at Baylor Bears (10-1)

Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Baylor -15, 71.5

No. 9 Baylor still has plenty to play for, as an at-large BCS berth is possible if it is able to defeat No. 23 Texas on Saturday.

For the Bears, there is still a lot to play for as they can still win the Big 12 for the first time in school history if they win and get help from Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State. However, the Longhorns still have an outside shot at winning the conference too, but they must defeat the Bears to have any chance.

Last season, these teams played a high-scoring affair, as Texas prevailed 56-50 in Austin. In that game, RB Joe Bergeron rushed for five touchdowns, and he is coming off a 102-yard performance in the Longhorns' 41-16 victory over Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night. Oklahoma State handed Baylor its lone loss of season two week ago because its offense was able to control the game.

Texas (5-5-1 ATS, 2-2-1 ATS on road) has used a solid rushing attack (201 YPG, 36th in nation) as the key to the offense all season, and will need to play a big role once again on Saturday. Despite the struggle in Stillwater where they lost 49-17, the Bears still lead the nation in scoring (55.4 PPG), rank 4th in passing (366 YPG) and 11th in rushing (269 YPG).

Baylor (8-3 ATS) has been unstoppable at home, winning all six games (SU and ATS) by at least 29 points, while also scoring at least 69 points in every home game but one. The Bears are averaging an absurd 65.7 PPG and 715 total YPG at Floyd Casey Stadium, where they are 10-0 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest since the start of 2011.

However, Texas is 44-29 ATS (60%) versus mistake-prone teams (60+ penalty YPG) under head coach Mack Brown.

The season nearly spun out of control for Texas after back-to-back losses to BYU and Ole Miss early in the season. The Longhorns gave up 822 rushing yards in those two defeats, including a school record 550 against BYU. However, they have salvaged their season, winning seven of eight games, with their only loss being to Oklahoma State.

With leading rusher RB Johnathan Gray (780 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 4 TD) out for the year with an Achilles injury, RB Malcolm Brown (643 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 9 TD) has become the main running back in the Longhorns attack, posting a season-high 128 yards on 27 carries versus Texas Tech.

QB Case McCoy (1,831 pass yards, 10 TD, 9 INT) has not put up huge numbers, but has managed the Longhorns and played well except for the game against Oklahoma State. While he is not asked to throw the ball a lot, he has the ability to use the play-action fake, where he is able to go deep to WRs Mike Davis (46 catches, 701 yards, 8 TD) and Jaxon Shipley (52 catches, 570 yards, 1 TD). Davis destroyed Baylor last season with six catches for 148 yards and a fourth-quarter TD catch.

While the offense must be able to control the ball to keep Baylor's offense off the field, the defense (25.1 PPG allowed, 53rd in FBS) is going to have to step up in a big way. For the season, the Longhorns allow 393 total YPG, including 177 YPG on 4.3 YPC on the ground. But the Horns have been able to force at least one turnover in all 11 games, totaling 26 takeaways this year. Sophomore CB Duke Thomas has three interceptions on the season, and may be matched up a lot against Baylor WR Antwan Goodley.

Goodley (59 catches, 1,205 yards, 12 TD) has become the next great receiver for Baylor. At 220 pounds, he is strong enough to go over the middle, but also has the speed to run away from the defense, racking up seven games of 100+ receiving yards. QB Bryce Petty has been terrific all season, throwing for 3,557 yards (11.2 YPA) to go along with 28 TD and just 2 INT.

Junior RB Lache Seastrunk (982 rush yards, 7.8 YPC, 11 touchdowns) missed nearly three games with a groin injury, but was able to return against TCU last week, rushing the ball 24 times for 94 yards. When he is healthy, is as good of a running back as there is in the country, and gained 56 yards on just seven carries in last year's loss to Texas. Seastrunk has the power and speed to physically wear down defenses, as he rushed for at least 109 yards in six of the first seven games that he played. While he was hurt, freshman RB Shock Linwood (848 rush yards, 7.0 YPC, 8 TD) stepped in as another home run threat for the Bears' offensive attack, rushing for 182 yards versus Oklahoma and 187 against Texas Tech.

Art Briles is one of the best offensive coaches in the country, but the improved play on the defensive side of the ball is the reason why the Bears have already won 10 games. They rank 27th in the nation in scoring defense (22.2 PPG allowed) and have held visitors to a mere 283 total YPG, 3.9 yards per play, 2.4 YPC and 45.8% completions. However, the defense has not been as sharp in the past three games, as they have allowed 40.3 PPG and 486 total YPG. But they are still making big plays with both CB Orion Stewart and LB Eddie Lackey returning interceptions for touchdowns last week as part of 24 takeaways for the team this season.

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MWC Championship
By Sportsbook.ag

Utah State (8-4) at Fresno State (10-1)

Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Time/TV: 10:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Venue: Bulldog Stadium
Location: Fresno California
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Fresno State -3.5, 59.5

Utah State brings its five-game winning streak to No. 24 Fresno State as the two teams meet for the first-ever Mountain West Conference title game on Saturday night.

The Aggies had a rough start to the season with four losses in their first seven games, but faced some tough teams in Utah, USC, BYU and Boise State. They still managed to keep the Utah and USC games close and lost by a combined seven points despite being on the road for both of those contests. Recently though, Utah State has been tearing up the MWC and are 4-1 ATS during the five-game surge. The defense has been stellar during the win streak, allowing just 10.2 PPG and 279.2 total YPG to their opponents.

Fresno State has been hot all season and started the year with 10 straight wins. The Bulldogs were having their way with the Mountain West until they ran into QB David Fales and the San Jose State offense last week, losing in a 62-52 shootout, and ending any hopes of reaching a BCS bowl.

This game will be held at Bulldog Stadium where Fresno is a perfect 6-0 SU this year, but only 1-5 ATS. Utah State has gone 4-2 (both SU and ATS) in its road contests this season.

The last time these two programs met was back in 2011 when the 2.5-point home underdog Bulldogs took down the Aggies by a score of 31-21. Utah State rushed for 260 yards in that game while Fresno State dominated and earned 31 first downs to the Aggies 18.

Since 2001, the Bulldogs are an impressive 7-1 SU in this series, but just like this season, they have done poorly ATS (3-5).

Both Utah State and Fresno State have played well on Saturdays over the past two seasons, with the Aggies going 15-3 ATS and the Bulldogs going 15-5 ATS in those games. Utah State’s top WR Travis Reynolds is doubtful for this game with a knee injury.

The Aggies lost starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton to a knee injury in the sixth game of the season, but have actually improved since he went down. Freshman QB Darell Garretson took over behind center and has not missed a beat, throwing for 1,127 yards (7.3 YPA) with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. He is 5-1 SU as a starter and has thrown for 8 TD and only 2 INT during the team's five-game winning streak. Garretson is coming off a solid game against Wyoming where he completed 20-of-29 passes (69%) for 156 yards (5.4 YPA), three touchdowns and an interception.

HB Joey DeMartino has been the true star of the offense though with 1,024 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and 13 total touchdowns (12 rushing). He has run for more than 100 yards in four of the team's past five games and has scored at least one touchdown in six straight games.

The Aggies like to spread the ball out through the air and 12 different players have caught touchdown passes this year. The top man in that group has been WR Travis Reynolds (832 rec. yards, 4 TD), but he is doubtful with a knee injury for this game.

The defense has been great this season and is allowing only 16.8 PPG to their opponents (7th in the nation) while being led by senior CB Nevin Lawson (48 tackles, 4 interceptions). The Aggies allow just 51.8% completions to opposing quarterbacks and 2.9 YPC to opposing ball carriers. They hae also forced at least one turnover in all 12 games, totaling 23 takeaways this year.

The Fresno State offense has been one of the best in the nation this season (47.3 PPG, 4th in FBS) thanks to 410.3 YPG from the passing game, which leads all of college football. The man responsible for this has been QB Derek Carr, brother of former number one overall NFL Draft pick and Fresno State alum, David Carr. Not surprisingly, he leads the nation with 4,462 passing yards and has nine more touchdowns than any other quarterback with 45. He is also fifth in FBS completion percentage (70.3%) and has thrown only five interceptions in his 552 pass attempts. His past two games have been very impressive, as he has totaled 1,041 passing yards and 13 touchdowns with the team scoring 121 total points, but losing most recently against San Jose State.

Of course a quarterback can only be this good if he has the right guys catching the ball and WRs Davante Adams and Josh Harper fit the bill. Adams is second in the nation with 1,477 receiving yards (13.1 avg.) and leads all receivers with 22 touchdown catches, while Harper has 1,011 receiving yards (12.8 avg.) and is tied for sixth in college football with 13 touchdown grabs. Harper injured his groin on a TD catch last week, but is expected to play on Saturday.

The solid passing game has also opened up the rushing attack as HBs Josh Quezada (733 rush yards, 6 TD) and Marteze Waller (608 rush yards, 7 TD) have combined to average 5.5 YPC on the year.

The Bulldogs big weak point is their defense as they have given up 30.2 PPG to their opponents (85th in nation) and showed a real weakness against other great offenses when they allowed 62 points last week. They surrender 437.1 total YPG, and allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.8% of their passes, a rate that jumps to 63.4% at home.

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