Saturday's NCAAF Betting Cheat Sheet: Afternoon Action
By Covers.com
Marshall Thundering Herd at Rice Owls (+6.5, 61)
The Rice Owls are ranked 62nd on offense, averaging 420.5 yards per game. The Owls are averaging 239.5 yards rushing and 181.0 yards passing so far
this season.
The Marshall Thundering Herd are ranked ninth on offense, averaging 513.2 yards per game. The Thundering Herd are averaging 219.9 yards rushing and
293.3 yards passing so far this season.
LINE: Rice opened as 4.5-point home dogs and have move slightly to +6.5. The total is up to 61.
WEATHER: There is a 50 percent chance of rain with a 12 mph wind blowing towards teh South end zone.
TRENDS:
* Marshall is 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0 in Marshall's last six games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Rice's last six games versus a team with a winning record.
Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 57)
The Sooners defeated the Mountaineers early in the season but went on to lose to Texas and Baylor - two teams that Oklahoma State defeated - by a combined margin of 77-32. This season, Oklahoma sports a resume that includes victories over Notre Dame and and Texas Tech, as well as last week's 41-31 win over Kansas State.
The Cowboys have won seven straight games since their only loss of the season - a 30-21 defeat against a West Virginia team that wound up 4-8. The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in 50 consecutive contests, but their defense quietly is much improved, holding Kansas, Texas and Baylor to an average of 12 points over the last three games.
LINE: The line opened at -10.5 and has moved to -10. The total opened at 58 and has been bet down to 57.
WEATHER: There is a 14 percent chance of precipitation with temperatures in the high teens.
TRENDS:
* Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.
Central Florida Knights at Southern Methodist Mustangs (OFF)
Blake Bortles' 167.3 passer rating has him in elite company, ranked seventh in the nation and his 276.2 passing yards per game falls behind only Gilbert and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater in the conference. Central Florida's offense ranks 30th in the nation, averaging 34.6 points.
SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert, is listed as questionable with a knee sprain. While the Mustangs have proven they can score in bunches with Gilbert under center, last week's goose egg against Houston is a concern, as is SMU's conference-worst 34.8 points per game, especially against the Knights' offense.
LINE: The line is currently off the board.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of ice pellets with an eight mph cross field wind.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Central Florida is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five meetings.
Memphis Tigers at Connecticut Huskies (+1, 43)
Memphis has been ranked in the top 20 in the nation in total defense for most of the season but slipped to 27th after giving up a season highs for total yards (534) and points (41) to Temple.
Redshirt freshman quarterback Casey Cochran took over the starting job three weeks ago and has rejuvenated the offense as the Huskies have put up 21 or more points in three straight games after doing so only twice in their first eight contests.
LINE: UConn opened at +1 dogs. The total is currently at 43.
WEATHER: There is a 12 percent chance of rain with a eight mph wind blowing towards the Southeast end zone.
TRENDS:
* Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Memphis' last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Connecticut's last four home games.
Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-16.5, 71.5)
The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight contests, thanks in large part to an improved rushing attack that rolled up 281 yards and three touchdowns against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night.
The Bears, who are currently averaging 55.4 points and 635.1 yards, have received a stunningly efficient season from Perry, as the junior quarterback has 3,557 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions, in addition to 11 rushing scores.
LINE: Baylor opened at -13.5 and have been bet up to -16.5. The total opened at 73.5 and have moved down to 71.5.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of ice pellets with a 10 mph cross field wind.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings.
Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers +1.5, 59)
Game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia
Missouri averages 489.5 total yards and rank 18th in the nation in rushing (236.9) with Henry Josey leading the way (951 yards, 13 TDs). The defense is tied for fourth in the nation with 37 sacks, has forced 27 turnovers and has at least one takeaway in 42 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the FBS.
Tre Mason, the SEC's leading rusher with 1,317 yards and 18 TDs, and dual threat quarterback Nick Marshall (1,627 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 922 rushing yards, 10 TDs) lead an offense that ranks fifth in rushing (318.3) and 15th in total yards (491).
LINE: Auburn opened at -1.5 and has moved to +1.5. The total is up to 59.
WEATHER: N/A.
TRENDS:
* Missouri is 6-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record.
* Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Missouri's last seven games overall.
Saturday's NCAAF Betting Cheat Sheet: Evening Action
By Covers.com
South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4, 46.5)
South Florida hasn't won at Rutgers since 2005 and will head north without two seniors on defense. Freshman quarterback Mike White (79-of-144 for 942 yards,
three touchdowns, eight interceptions) - the team's fourth starting quarterback of the season - will make his fifth straight start.
The Scarlet Knights will likely be without Leonte Carroo (upper body), who is a touchdown away from tying the school's single-single receiving TD record. The Scarlet Knights are ranked seventh in the country in rushing yards allowed (102.3) but are minus-10 in turnovers.
LINE: Rutgers opened at -7 but have moved down to -4. The total is currently at 46.5.
WEATHER: There is a 12 percent of rain.
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* South Florida is 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in Rutgers' last 10 games following a SU loss.
Standford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)
The Cardinal boast an impressive resume that includes victories over Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, Oregon and Notre Dame, in addition to their earlier win against Arizona State.Stanford ranks 13th in the country in points allowed (19 per game) and has yielded no more than 20 points in any of its last six contests.
The Sun Devils improved to 7-0 at home last week with a convincing 58-21 victory over Arizona, as they led 30-7 at the half and cruised despite the absence of leading rusher Marion Grice (leg). D.J. Foster led the way with 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping Arizona State improve its scoring output for the fourth straight game (20, 30, 38 and 58).
LINE: The Sun Devils opened as 3.5-point home faves and have moved slightly to -3. The total opened at 56.
WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain with a 10 mph wind blowing across the field.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Arizona State.
Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles (-29.5, 62.5)
The game will be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina.
The No. 20 ranked Blue Devils, who have won eight in a row, were picked to finish last in the Coastal Division and are heavy underdogs Saturday, but have come from behind to win their past four contests.
The Seminoles, who ascended to the No. 1 ranking after Alabama lost at Auburn last weekend, average 53.7 points per game. Quarterback Jameis Winston is a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, averaging a touchdown pass every 9.1 pass attempts for a Florida State offense that has scored 50 or more points seven times in 12 games.
LINE: The line opened at Florida State -28.5 and moved up to -29.5. The total opened at 61.5 and has jumped up to 62.5.
WEATHER: There is a 76 percent chance of rain with a 9 mph wind blowing across the field.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama (-3, 58.5)
The UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are ranked 42 on offense, averaging 443.7 yards per game. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 220.2 yards rushing and 223.5 yards passing so far this season.
The South Alabama Jaguars are ranked 48 on offense, averaging 431.2 yards per game. The Jaguars are averaging 171.0 yards rushing and 260.2 yards passing so far this season.
LINE: The line has held steady at South Alabama -3. The total has moved up from 58 to 58.5.
WEATHER: There is a 39 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:
* UL Lafayette is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 8-0-1 in UL Lafayette's last nine games following a SU loss.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (+5, 51.5)
Game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Ohio State has won a school-record 24 straight games but needed a failed two-point try in the final seconds last week to escape Michigan with a one-point victory. Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde have combined to rush for 1,070 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past three games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.
The Spartans boast the nation’s top rushing, total and pass efficiency defense and complement it with the fifth-best turnover margin (plus-15) in FBS. They are also second nationally in third-down defense (28.7 percent) and fourth in scoring defense (11.8 points per game).
LINE: The line opened +5.5 and is now +5. The total hasn't moved from 51.5.
WEATHER: N/A.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings
* Ohio State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs (-2.5, 60.5)
The Aggies were expected to struggle after losing starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending knee injury, but they rallied behind freshman backup Darell Garretson, senior running back Joey DeMartino (12 touchdowns) and a stellar defense.
Fresno State's offense ranks fourth nationally in scoring at 47.3 points per game, and senior quarterback Derek Carr has thrown 45 touchdowns with only five interceptions.
LINE: The Bulldogs opened as 3-point home faves and are now -2.5. The total is currently 60.5.
WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:
* Utah State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Fresno State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.
Saturday's Big 12 Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Oklahoma State -9.5, 57
No. 6 Oklahoma State has a chance to win the Big 12 and earn a BCS bowl berth with a victory over in-state rival No. 18 Oklahoma as the Bedlam Series resumes on Saturday.
Last season, these two teams played one of the greatest games of the season, with the Sooners erasing an 11-point deficit in the second half to win a 51-48 overtime thriller in Norman. In that game, Landry Jones threw for 500 yards for Oklahoma, but he is no longer under center for the Sooners. The last time they visited Stillwater in 2011, the Sooners got absolutely drilled, losing 44-10. In that season, the Cowboys clinched a Big 12 title, the exact same opportunity that presents itself on Saturday.
Oklahoma is coming off a 41-31 victory on the road against Kansas State on Nov. 23, a game in which Brennan Clay rushed for 200 yards and two touchdowns. The win was significant for the Sooners, as they have had their problems on the road, going 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) away from home this season.
Oklahoma State is coming off a dominant 49-17 victory over then-No. 4 Baylor on Nov. 23, giving them the chance to earn a BCS bowl berth win a victory on Saturday. Oklahoma State (8-3 ATS) has been great since its shocking loss to West Virginia, winning seven straight games SU, and six straight games ATS, and posting at least 38 points in each of the past five contests where it has averaged 47.8 PPG. Mike Gundy has the Cowboys within one game of winning the Big 12 for a second time in the last three seasons, but nothing would make Bob Stoops happier than leading his Sooners to a victory over their hated rival, which would cause a three-way tie for the top spot in the Big 12 with these two schools plus the winner of Texas versus Baylor.
Stoops is 45-31 ATS (59%) as the Sooners head coach after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored, but Gundy is 18-4 ATS (82%) when favored by 3.5 to 10 points as the OSU head coach.
The quarterback position has been a carousel this season for Oklahoma, but QB Trevor Knight filled in admirably for the injured Blake Bell (concussion) in the last game, completing 14-of-20 passes for 171 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Like Bell, Knight is a threat running the ball from the quarterback position, as he also rushed for 82 yards on 5.9 YPC as well against K-State. Bell is likely to be active for this game, but Knight is expected to start. However, for the Sooners to have a chance to win the game, they will have to be able to run the ball. Oklahoma ranks 15th in the nation with 242.3 rushing YPG, and with RB Brennan Clay (843 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 6 TD), the team has a guy with the ability to wear down his opponent.
While the defense ranks 21st in the nation in scoring defense (21.1 PPG), it got exposed in the victory over the Wildcats. K-State wide receiver Tyler Lockett had a record setting day, constantly getting behind the Sooners secondary to a tune of 278 receiving yards and three touchdowns, including a 90-yarder. For the season, OU allows just 198 passing YPG (6.3 YPA) on 54.4% completions. Freshman CB Zack Sanchez changed last week's game in the fourth quarter with a 74-yard interception for a touchdown, but they must limit the big play of the Oklahoma State offense.
If it was not for a fluke loss in Morgantown, the Cowboys could find themselves in talks for a national title berth. Oklahoma State has been balanced on both sides of the ball this season, ranking 11th in FBS scoring (41.2 PPG) and 12th in scoring defense (18.8 PPG).
Cowboys Senior QB Clint Chelf (1,592 passing yards, 8.0 YPA, 14 TD, 5 INT) was outstanding against Baylor in the last game, throwing for 370 yards (14.8 YPA) and three touchdowns, while also scoring a rushing touchdown. Chelf has been on a tear in his past three games with 832 passing yards, 8 TD and just 1 INT.
After rushing for 315 yards during a two-game stretch versus Iowa State and Texas Tech, junior RB Desmond Roland has been able to rush for only 139 yards on 46 carries in three games since. Defenses have focused on shutting down the Cowboys' rushing attack and Chelf has stepped up and made all the big plays.
With the Sooners passing defense struggling as of late, the opportunity for running lanes may be open as they try and slow down Chelf and the Cowboys air attack. WRs Tracy Moore (595 rec. yards, 6 TD) and Josh Stewart (555 rec. yards, 2 TD) form one of the best receiving duos in the conference. Stewart has battled injuries, but was back in action against Baylor after missing the previous two games with a leg injury. With a week off, look for Stewart to more resemble the player that had 1,210 receiving yards last season.
The Cowboys defense has been terrific this year, and that is the biggest reason they are on the cusp of a Big 12 championship. Senior CB Justin Gilbert (6 INT) is one of the most dynamic players in the country, with the ability to make the big play at any given moment. He has six career returns for touchdowns, which is not only a Big 12 record, but he's also the leader among active NCAA players. Look for him to make a big play in his final career game in Stillwater. For the season, OSU allows 380 total YPG, including 250 passing YPG. But on the ground, it has held opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry.
Texas Longhorns (8-3) at Baylor Bears (10-1)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Baylor -15, 71.5
No. 9 Baylor still has plenty to play for, as an at-large BCS berth is possible if it is able to defeat No. 23 Texas on Saturday.
For the Bears, there is still a lot to play for as they can still win the Big 12 for the first time in school history if they win and get help from Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State. However, the Longhorns still have an outside shot at winning the conference too, but they must defeat the Bears to have any chance.
Last season, these teams played a high-scoring affair, as Texas prevailed 56-50 in Austin. In that game, RB Joe Bergeron rushed for five touchdowns, and he is coming off a 102-yard performance in the Longhorns' 41-16 victory over Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night. Oklahoma State handed Baylor its lone loss of season two week ago because its offense was able to control the game.
Texas (5-5-1 ATS, 2-2-1 ATS on road) has used a solid rushing attack (201 YPG, 36th in nation) as the key to the offense all season, and will need to play a big role once again on Saturday. Despite the struggle in Stillwater where they lost 49-17, the Bears still lead the nation in scoring (55.4 PPG), rank 4th in passing (366 YPG) and 11th in rushing (269 YPG).
Baylor (8-3 ATS) has been unstoppable at home, winning all six games (SU and ATS) by at least 29 points, while also scoring at least 69 points in every home game but one. The Bears are averaging an absurd 65.7 PPG and 715 total YPG at Floyd Casey Stadium, where they are 10-0 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest since the start of 2011.
However, Texas is 44-29 ATS (60%) versus mistake-prone teams (60+ penalty YPG) under head coach Mack Brown.
The season nearly spun out of control for Texas after back-to-back losses to BYU and Ole Miss early in the season. The Longhorns gave up 822 rushing yards in those two defeats, including a school record 550 against BYU. However, they have salvaged their season, winning seven of eight games, with their only loss being to Oklahoma State.
With leading rusher RB Johnathan Gray (780 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 4 TD) out for the year with an Achilles injury, RB Malcolm Brown (643 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 9 TD) has become the main running back in the Longhorns attack, posting a season-high 128 yards on 27 carries versus Texas Tech.
QB Case McCoy (1,831 pass yards, 10 TD, 9 INT) has not put up huge numbers, but has managed the Longhorns and played well except for the game against Oklahoma State. While he is not asked to throw the ball a lot, he has the ability to use the play-action fake, where he is able to go deep to WRs Mike Davis (46 catches, 701 yards, 8 TD) and Jaxon Shipley (52 catches, 570 yards, 1 TD). Davis destroyed Baylor last season with six catches for 148 yards and a fourth-quarter TD catch.
While the offense must be able to control the ball to keep Baylor's offense off the field, the defense (25.1 PPG allowed, 53rd in FBS) is going to have to step up in a big way. For the season, the Longhorns allow 393 total YPG, including 177 YPG on 4.3 YPC on the ground. But the Horns have been able to force at least one turnover in all 11 games, totaling 26 takeaways this year. Sophomore CB Duke Thomas has three interceptions on the season, and may be matched up a lot against Baylor WR Antwan Goodley.
Goodley (59 catches, 1,205 yards, 12 TD) has become the next great receiver for Baylor. At 220 pounds, he is strong enough to go over the middle, but also has the speed to run away from the defense, racking up seven games of 100+ receiving yards. QB Bryce Petty has been terrific all season, throwing for 3,557 yards (11.2 YPA) to go along with 28 TD and just 2 INT.
Junior RB Lache Seastrunk (982 rush yards, 7.8 YPC, 11 touchdowns) missed nearly three games with a groin injury, but was able to return against TCU last week, rushing the ball 24 times for 94 yards. When he is healthy, is as good of a running back as there is in the country, and gained 56 yards on just seven carries in last year's loss to Texas. Seastrunk has the power and speed to physically wear down defenses, as he rushed for at least 109 yards in six of the first seven games that he played. While he was hurt, freshman RB Shock Linwood (848 rush yards, 7.0 YPC, 8 TD) stepped in as another home run threat for the Bears' offensive attack, rushing for 182 yards versus Oklahoma and 187 against Texas Tech.
Art Briles is one of the best offensive coaches in the country, but the improved play on the defensive side of the ball is the reason why the Bears have already won 10 games. They rank 27th in the nation in scoring defense (22.2 PPG allowed) and have held visitors to a mere 283 total YPG, 3.9 yards per play, 2.4 YPC and 45.8% completions. However, the defense has not been as sharp in the past three games, as they have allowed 40.3 PPG and 486 total YPG. But they are still making big plays with both CB Orion Stewart and LB Eddie Lackey returning interceptions for touchdowns last week as part of 24 takeaways for the team this season.
Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
MISSOURI TIGERS (11-1) vs. AUBURN TIGERS (11-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Pick ‘em & 59.5
Opening Line & Total: Auburn -2.5 & 58.5
Coming off a stunning upset against then-No. 1 Alabama, No. 3 Auburn will look to complete its ascendance from the SEC cellar to the conference crown with a win against No. 5 Missouri on Saturday.
Auburn stunned the world last weekend when Chris Davis returned a missed field goal with time expired to beat the Crimson Tide 34-28. With the victory, Auburn moved to 10-2 ATS on the season, now having covered in nine consecutive games. Auburn is now 11-1 ATS after gaining 225 rushing yards or more in three straight games since 1992. Missouri is also 10-2 ATS this season, ripping off four straight wins (SU and ATS), and prevailing big in both games when it was billed as an underdog, winning by 15 at Georgia and beating Florida by 19 at home. Missouri’s only SU loss this year came in double overtime to South Carolina while QB James Franklin was injured. Both teams have extremely favorable coaching trends, as Gus Malzahn is 12-1 ATS after 2+ straight wins as a college head coach, and Gary Pinkel is 39-21 ATS (65%) after a game where his Missouri team forced 0 or 1 turnovers. The winner of this game may be able to reach the BCS national title game if No. 1 Florida State falters against Duke or No. 2 Ohio State slips up against Michigan State.
Senior QB James Franklin leads a Missouri offense that ranks 15th in scoring nationally at 38.8 PPG. Franklin has completed 66.9% of his passes for 1,952 yards, 16 TD and 4 INT. He also has 412 rushing yards and three touchdowns with his legs. The team has a top-notch ground game (237 YPG, 18th in nation) featuring three strong running backs. Henry Josey (951 rush yards, 6.2 YPC, 13 TD) leads that crew while Russell Hansbrough (624 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 4 TD) and Marcus Murphy (561 rush yards, 6.9 YPC, 9 TD) are also major contributors. Franklin’s top two receiving targets are L’Damian Washington (824 rec. yards, 10 TD) and Dorial Green-Beckham (686 rec. yards, 10 TD). The duo combined for 190 yards and two scores in the team’s 28-21 win against Texas A&M last week. The stingy Missouri defense ranks 14th in FBS with 19.4 points per game allowed, yielding 3.6 yards per carry and 6.4 yards per passing attempt. The Tigers need to do a better job of forcing mistakes though, tallying just one takeaway in each of the past three games. But that's easier said than done against an Auburn team that does a great job protecting the football with just six giveaways in the past seven games.
Auburn’s offense rushes the ball for an astounding 318.3 YPG (fifth-most in nation), and puts up 38.6 PPG, which ranks 18th nationally. Dual-threat junior QB Nick Marshall leads that effort with both his arm and legs. He has thrown for 1,627 yards (8.1 YPG) with 11 TD and 5 INT, but he has run for 922 yards on 6.6 YPC with 10 rushing scores. He runs the option with RB Tre Mason, who has 1,317 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) and 18 TD. Mason rumbled for 164 yards (5.7 YPC) against Alabama's fierce defense, giving him four straight games of at least 115 yards on the ground. Also don’t forget about Corey Grant who averages an amazing 9.8 yards per carry, gaining 585 yards and five scores. Junior Cameron Artis-Payne (573 rush yards, 6.5 YPC, 5 TD) is also effective, but has a mere 14 carries since the start of November. Marshall’s No. 1 target in the passing game this year has been sophomore WR Sammie Coates (747 rec. yards, 6 TD) who averages a hefty 23.3 yards per reception, including two catches for 60 yards last week. Auburn’s defense gives up only 22.5 PPG (31st in FBS) despite allowing 414 total YPG, 4.4 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per pass attempt. These Tigers also need to force more turnovers, tallying just two takeaways over the past three contests combined.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (12-0) vs. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (11-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Ohio State -5 & 51.5
Opening Line & Total: Buckeyes -6 & 51.5
Urban Meyer is undefeated in two seasons with No. 2 Ohio State and with a win against No. 10 Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday, a trip to the BCS Championship Game is likely.
The Buckeyes missed out on a chance to win the national title last season as they were ineligible to play in a bowl game. They have come back this season and once again gone undefeated, but did have a close call last week against rival Michigan. The game came down to the wire with Ohio State prevailing 42-41 as the Wolverines failed on a potential game-winning, two-point conversion with 32 seconds left on the clock. The Spartans have come back from a disappointing 2012 season (3-5 in Big Ten) to being undefeated in conference this year while winning all eight Big Ten games by more than 10 points. These two programs have had defensive battles in their past two matchups, with OSU pulling out a 17-16 win on the road as a 3-point underdog last season, and MSU winning 10-7 on the road two seasons ago, also as a 3-point underdog. The Buckeyes won the game last season with their big rushing attack (204 yards) and overcame three turnovers with their stellar defense as the Spartans managed only 34 rushing yards. Since 1992, Ohio State has dominated this series both SU (12-3) and ATS (9-6) with the average total in these games being 45.3 points. The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in non-home games versus good teams (10+ PPG margin) in the past three seasons, but the Spartans are 7-0 ATS in non-home games in the second half of the season since the start of 2012. Ohio State has failed to cover its past three games.
Ohio State has continued to use an impressive ground-and-pound offense as it ranks second in the nation with 321.3 YPG on the ground and has scored 48.2 PPG (3rd in the nation). QB Braxton Miller has once again been the best quarterback in the Big Ten and is in talks for the Heisman trophy. He uses both his arm and his legs to lead the Buckeyes to victory and has 1,759 passing yards (8.4 YPA) with 21 touchdowns and five interceptions while also running for 891 yards (6.8 YPC) and eight touchdowns. He has done all this despite missing nearly a quarter of the season. Miller made the most of his six completions last week with 133 passing yards and two touchdowns against Michigan but took over the game with his 153 rushing yards (9.6 YPC) and three touchdowns on the ground. He has run for 481 yards on 10.7 YPC with six touchdowns over the past three games. HB Carlos Hyde has also dominated with seven straight games of 110+ rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns (14 rushing) in those games. He has totaled 1,290 rushing yards (7.8 YPC) with 14 TD this season, and is coming off of a 226-yard performance (8.4 YPC) against the Wolverines. The WR duo of Devin Smith (644 rec. yards, 8 TD) and Philly Brown (602 rec. yards, 9 TD) has caught 43% of team's receptions this season. Smith has only three receptions over the past three games, but two have been long touchdowns (53 and 39 yards. LB Ryan Shazier (121 tackles, 6 sacks) and CB Bradley Roby (62 tackles, 3 INT) could be day-one NFL draft picks after the season, and have led the Buckeyes defense to the nation's 18th-best scoring defense (20.3 PPG). OSU is allowing a mere 100 rushing YPG on 3.0 YPC, but has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 256 YPG (6.8 YPA) on 61% completions.
Michigan State has really turned it around this season and mostly has the defense to thank, but its offense has done enough to win nearly every game. QB Connor Cook has not put up the most impressive numbers (2,119 passing yards, 7.0 YPA, 17 TD), but has thrown only four interceptions in 304 attempts and has a solid 58.2 completion percentage. Cook has eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions over his past five games. HB Jeremy Langford has been the workhorse of the offense and has 1,210 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) with 17 total touchdowns (16 rushing) on the year. He has rushed for 100+ yards in each of the past seven games and has 12 total rushing touchdowns in that time. Cook likes to spread the ball around in the passing game and has three wide receivers between 30 and 35 receptions with WR Bennie Fowler leading the team in receiving yards (496) and touchdowns (6). The Spartans' defense is littered with future NFL players with CB Darqueze Dennard (56 tackles, 4 interceptions) and LB Max Bullough (73 tackles) leading the way. They have allowed only 11.8 PPG (4th in the nation) to their opponents this season while allowing six points or fewer in five of their past six games. Opponents have gained a mere 237 total YPG and 3.8 yards per play, which includes a meager 64 rushing YPG on 2.2 YPC. Michigan State has also cranked up the turnovers with 11 takeaways over the past three contests.
DUKE BLUE DEVILS (10-2) vs. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (12-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -29.5 & 63.5
Opening Line & Total: Seminoles -30 & 62.5
Now the No. 1 team in the nation, Florida State will look to finish its regular season undefeated with a win in Saturday's ACC Championship game against an upstart No. 20 Duke team that has its first 10-win season ever.
Both teams have been incredible bets this season, each at 10-2 ATS, though they have taken different routes getting there. The Seminoles have been favored in every single contest while the Blue Devils has been an underdog in half of their games, going 5-1 ATS in those contests, including four straight SU wins in the underdog role. They have now covered seven in a row, while the Seminoles have five straight ATS wins. The question is if Duke will be able to do anything on either side of the ball against Florida State, which leads the nation in scoring defense (11.0 PPG) and ranks second in FBS in scoring offense with 53.7 PPG. Duke is 3-15 ATS (17%) since 1992 against top-notch passing defenses (5.75 YPA or less) in non-home games, but since David Cutcliffe took over the program, the Blue Devils are 16-6 ATS (73%) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points. However, even with the monster spread, Duke will still be hard-pressed to keep this game close, as the Seminoles have dispatched their three ranked foes this season—Maryland, Clemson and Miami—by a combined 127 points! FSU has also won all 18 meetings with the Blue Devils by an average score of 50 to 16, scoring at least 40 points in 16 of those games. In the two most recent meetings, the 'Noles prevailed 41-16 in Durham in 2011, and 48-7 at home last year despite losing four fumbles.
The Blue Devils have an interesting situation at quarterback with Anthony Boone (1,695 pass yards, 66.2% completions, 10 TD, 9 INT) as the regular passer, but he splits the snaps with Brandon Connette (1,210 pass yards, 61.8% completions, 13 TD, 6 INT). Both of the team's losses came while Boone was injured, while Connette is a tremendous runner, rushing for 329 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Boone is less of a threat with his legs with 192 yards and 4 TD on the ground. He was also dreadful in Tallahassee in relief last year, going 3-for-15 for 37 yards (2.5 YPA). Their No. 1 receiving option is the dangerous junior WR Jamison Crowder (1,131 rec. yards, 7 TD), who has six 100-yard receiving games this year and has caught two touchdown passes in each of the past two games. He’s also a threat to return punts for scores. On the ground, RBs Jela Duncan (546 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 3 TD) and Josh Snead (530 rush yards, 6.4 YPC) have been the two top threats. Duncan rushed for 46 yards on 13 carries (3.5 YPC) with the lone Duke touchdown versus the 'Noles last year. The Blue Devils defense yields 23.0 PPG (37th in FBS), with one outlier when they gave up 58 points in a loss to Pittsburgh. They also allow 395 total YPG, comprised of 225 passing YPG and 170 rushing YPG.
The Florida State offense is the Jameis Winston show, as the freshman signal caller has completed 68.8% of his passes for an incredible 35 TD and 8 INT. He’s thrown for 3,490 yards (11.0 YPA) and with the big leads he puts up, he often doesn’t even play for the entire game. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season, and has tossed 9 TD and just 1 INT in his past three games. Three of his receivers have at least 800 yards through the air: WRs Rashad Greene (914 rec. yards, 9 TD), Kenny Shaw (855 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Kelvin Benjamin (838 rec. yards, 12 TD). Greene and Benjamin each caught a long TD pass in last year's rout of Duke, as Greene scored from 71 yards out while Benjamin caught a 35-yard touchdown. TE Nick O’Leary is also a big part of the offense with 509 receiving yards and 7 TD. And if teams prepare too heavily against the pass, the running back trio of Devonta Freeman (852 rush yards, 5.9 YPC, 12 TD), Karlos Williams (650 rush yards, 8.2 YPC, 10 TD) and James Wilder Jr. (517 yards, 7.1 YPC, 8 TD) can all take advantage on the ground. Both Freeman and Wilder ran all over the Blue Devils last year, combining for 174 yards on 25 carries (7.0 YPC) and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Duke may have trouble getting its ground game going against this rush defense that yields 3.2 YPC, while opposing quarterbacks are completing only 52.2% of their passes for 5.1 yards per attempt.
SEC Championship
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Missouri vs. Auburn
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Time/TV: 4:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Venue: Georgia Dome
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Line, Total: Auburn -1 ½, 58
Raise your hand if you picked Auburn and Missouri to collide in Atlanta this weekend at the SEC Championship Game. Now if your hand is raised, stop lying!
In the most improbable matchup in the history of the SEC Championship Game that dates back to 1992, Missouri will face Auburn at the Ga. Dome on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS. The winner will get a date in Pasadena at the BCS Championship Game if Michigan State can beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Auburn or Missouri favored by one, while others had it as a pick ‘em. From Sunday through Thursday, most spots had Auburn favored by 1½ or two. The total is 58½
Auburn (11-1 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) has been living on the edge in its last two games, pulling out miraculous victories over Georgia and Alabama on two game-winning plays that will be remembered for generations to come.
On fourth and 18 against Georgia, Nick Marshall’s bomb into double coverage went right into the hands of the UGA defenders. Instead of knocking the ball down, both defenders collided going for the ball, resulting in a carom that inexplicably led the ball right into the hands of a streaking Ricardo Louis for a 73-yard touchdown with 25 ticks left.
Last week’s play was even more unlikely. We’ve seen tipped balls on Hail Mary’s many times before. What AU’s Chris Davis did with his 109-yard return of Alabama’s missed 57-yard field goal to end the game and the SEC West race was beyond shocking.
The only time I can remember a 109-yard return (107 actually) off a missed field goal was when Chris McAlister did it for the Ravens against the Broncos on Monday Night Football. And the main reason I remember it is because of the barbaric crackback block that Ray Lewis delivered to spring McAlister.
But that came at the end of the first half, not the end of the game or the conclusion of a team’s quest to win a third straight national title and a fourth in five years.
The likelihood of those plays is off the charts. Auburn came up with them in back-to-back home games. Is this a team of destiny, one touched with some sort of magical charm?
Remember, it was this week a year ago that the school fired a head coach that led it to the school’s first national title since the 1950s just 24 months before. That’s what happens when you go 3-9 on The Plains. Many expected AU to improve under Gus Malzahn, but nobody envisioned this type of turnaround.
Missouri (11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) hasn’t needed good fortune or luck on its way to a remarkable bounce-back season. Gary Pinke’s team was snakebitten by injuries in its 2012 SEC debut. In fact, it lost three offensive line starters before Week 1 and QB James Franklin was never 100 percent.
In 2013, however, Mizzou has stayed healthy with the exception of Franklin missing five weeks with a separated shoulder. Pinkel’s bunch has won 10 of its 11 games by 14 points or more, and its only loss came in overtime to South Carolina in a game it led 17-0 with 12 minutes remaining.
Mizzou is two-deep at QB, three-deep at RB and has three future NFL wide receivers. RB Henry Josey missed all of 2012 with a knee injury but has shined in 2013 nonetheless. Josey has run for a team-high 951 yards and 13 TDs.
Franklin has a 16/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and three rushing scores. Dorial Green-Beckham and L’Damian Washington have 10 TD catches apiece.
Totals have been an overall wash for Mizzou (6-6), but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip in its last five games.
Auburn has seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 overall, 6-1 in its last seven contests.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
I noted above that a Michigan St. win over Ohio St. would send the Mizzou-AU winner to Pasadena. Obviously, a Duke win over FSU would do the trick as well, but we all know that those chances are very slim. However, there is precedence for such shockers to shake up the national-title game matchup. In 2007, Pitt went to Morgantown and beat West Va. as a 28½-point underdog, paving the way for LSU to win it all over Ohio St. in New Orleans. Just two years ago, Iowa State clipped Oklahoma St. as a 27½-point ‘dog. Duke is a 29-point ‘dog to the ‘Noles at most books. -- Stanford is 4-0-1 ATS with three outright victories in five games as an underdog on David Shaw’s watch. Both outright defeats came in overtime. The Cardinal is a three-point ‘dog Saturday night at Arizona St. When they met in Palo Alto earlier this year, Stanford led 29-0 at intermission and 39-7 going into the fourth quarter. Therefore, don’t allow the 42-28 final to mislead you into thinking this wasn’t a lopsided beatdown in the previous encounter.
Arizona State RB Marion Grice is out vs. Stanford. Grice has rushed for 996 yards and scored 20 TDs (14 rushing, six receiving), but back-up D.J. Foster ran for 124 yards and a pair of scores in last week’s blowout win over in-state rival Arizona.
Memphis at UConn was a pick ‘em at most spots as of Friday afternoon. If the Huskies go off as home underdogs, they will be looking to improve on an incredible 18-4 spread record in their last 22 games as home puppies.
Fresno State WR Josh Harper (groin) is ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. Utah St. Harper has 79 receptions for 1,011 yards and 13 TDs this year.
Texas will be without leading tackler Steve Edmond Saturday at Baylor and in its bowl game. Edmond has a lacerated liver but should be ready for spring ball. The MLB had 73 tackles and two interceptions in 2013.
Texas is 6-2 ATS in eight games as a road underdog dating back to 2004. The Longhorns are 15-point ‘dogs at Baylor.
SMU senior QB Garrett Gilbert (21/7 TD-INT) was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ on Friday. He will most likely miss a second straight game Saturday vs. UCF. Without Gilbert, SMU head coach June Jones took his first bagel EVER as a head coach in last week’s 34-0 loss at Houston. During Jones’s tenure, the Mustangs are 9-4 ATS as home underdogs. They were catching 11 or 11.5 at most spots late Friday afternoon.
UL-Lafayette QB Terrance Broadway is ‘doubtful’ at South Alabama due to a wrist injury. Broadway has a 19/10 TD-INT ratio and eight rushing scores this season.
Pac-12 Championship
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Stanford at Arizona State
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Time/TV: 7:45 p.m. ET - ESPN
Venue: Sun Devil Stadium
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Line, Total: Sun Devils -3, 56
It's Saturday night in the desert, and the Stanford Cardinal (10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) and Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) will do battle for the Pac-12 championship. Both teams are ranked in the Top 25 for the second meeting of the season. Before 2013, both teams had never been ranked in the Top 25 when facing each other.
Stanford has been hard to figure out this season. The Cardinal rolled to wins in their first five games, including the first meeting with Arizona State in Palo Alto back on Sept. 21. However, Stanford lost at Utah Oct. 12, and then against at Southern California Nov. 16. They have been dominant at home, but rather ordinary on the road. In fact, Stanford is just 1-2 straight up in their past three away from Palo Alto, and 2-3 ATS in their five road games this season.
Stanford's offense has been rather ordinary at times, and they rank just 70th in the nation in total yards with 404.9 yards per game. The thing Stanford does well is run the football, and they rank 25th in the country with 209.0 rushing yards per contest. They've managed 32.8 points per game this season, ranking 44th overall. That includes 42 points scored against the Sun Devils in the first meeting.
The focal point of the offense is Tyler Gaffney, carrying 284 times for 1,480 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns. He also hauled in one receiving score. Two of Gaffney's rushing TDs came against Arizona State in the first meeting. QB Kevin Hogan has been a caretaker of the offense, completing 61 percent of his passes this season for 2,210 yards, 19 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He isn't really considered a dual-threat QB, but he can move the chains with his feet if he has to. He has 67 rushing attempts for 295 yards and a pair of scores on the ground. Hogan's favorite target, WR Ty Montgomery has team-highs with 53 grabs, 868 yards and nine receiving scores. He also has one rushing score, and he has averaged 31.3 yards per kickoff return, including a 100-yard return for score. Montgomery ripped the Arizona State defense for 62 receiving yards and two scores in the first matchup.
The two sides met back on Sept. 21, and Stanford jumped out to a 29-0 halftime lead, and a 39-7 lead after three quarters. However, the Sun Devils stormed back with 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to make things interesting before Stanford booted a late field goal to win 42-28. Arizona State leads the all-time series 16-12.
The Sun Devils offense starts and stops with QB Taylor Kelly. He completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 3,337 yards, 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The dual-threat QB also is a danger to move the ball on the ground, amassing 437 rushing yards and eight scores on 127 attempts. The Cardinal need to also be mindful of RB Marion Grice, who had 50 rushing yards and a score in the first battle between the two sides. WR Jaelen Strong posted season-highs with 12 catches and 168 yards and a score in the first meeting in Palo Alto. Strong has hit the century mark in receiving yards seven times, including two of his past three games.
The Sun Devils rank eighth in the nation with 43.2 points per game, and they rolled up 473.2 total yards per game, which was 22nd best in the country. Thanks to Kelly, the Sun Devils were also 25th in the country in passing yards with 285.4 yards per game through the air. The key battle in this game will be Stanford's defense against Arizona State's offense. The Cardinal rank 16th in total yards allowed with just 341.8 yards per game. And Stanford is third in the nation, yielding only 87.8 yards per game on the ground. Stanford can be had through the air, ranking 98th in the country, allowing 254.0 yards per game. Look for Kelly and the Sun Devils to try to add to that misery.
Arizona State DB Robert Nelson posted a team-best six interceptions, and will be someone Hogan will want to avoid. The Sun Devils rank 24th in total yards allowed with just 351.0 yards per game. And Stanford is 25th in the nation, allowing just 133.8 yards per game on the ground.
Betting Trends to Watch
The Cardinal have covered each of their past four games in the month of December, and they're 19-6-1 ATS in their past 26 road games. They're also an impressive 10-3-1 ATS in their past 14 road games against a team with a winning home record, and 34-16-1 ATS over their past 51 games overall.
The Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight conference tilts. In addition, AZ State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games. However, Arizona State is just 2-6 ATS in its past eight games played in the month of December.
In head-to-head matchups, the trends seem to favor Arizona State. The favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings, the home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings, and the Cardinal is just 1-3-1 ATS in its past five trips to Tempe. And if you're interested in the total, the 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series.
The total is set at 56. It will be interesting to see which side this game falls. The under is 6-1 in Stanford's past seven games overall, and 8-3 in their past 11 road games. The under is also 5-1 in their past six conference tilts, and 4-1 in their past five on grass. On the flip side, the over is 6-2 in Arizona State's past eight home games, 21-8 in their past 29 games on grass, and 7-3 in their past 10 conference battles. The over is also 20-6 in Arizona State's past 26 games against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in their past five home games against a team with a winning road record.