Pac-12 Conference Betting Preview
By: Covers.com
North Division
Cal Bears (2016: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 500/1
Season Win Total: 3.5
Why to bet the Bears: Justin Wilcox was an assistant at Cal under Jeff Tedford and after a 10-year journey as a DC at Boise St, Tennessee, Washington, USC and Wisconsin (last year, when the Badgers allowed just 13.7 PPG to lead all FBS teams), gets his first head coaching job at Berkeley, replacing the fired Sonny Dykes. Wilcox knows how to coach a defense and eight starters return but that unit allowed a whopping 42.6 PPG in 2016. Cal did win four of six home games in 2016 and have winnable Berkeley games this season against Weber St, Arizona (HC) and Oregon St, so winning four games is not out of the question.
Why not to be the Bears: One can't avoid the fact that this is truly a rebuilding year, so matching last year's five-win total highly unlikely. Cal lost all five of its road games last season (won neutral site game vs. Hawaii) and will take an eight-game road losing streak into its season-opener at North Carolina. If Cal can somehow 'steal' a road win, four or five wins is possible. However, I don't see that happening.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 3.5
Oregon Ducks (2016: 4-8 SU, 2-9-1 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 15/1
Season Win Total: 7.5
Why to bet the Ducks: Oregon saw its streak of 10-plus wins end in 2015 with a 9-4 record (Ducks had won 10 or more the previous seven years). Then came last year's disaster. Mark Helfrich was fired on November 29, following a 4-8 season, Oregon's worst record in 25 years. In comes Willie Taggert, who takes over after doing a wonderful job at USF, reviving that program by going 18-7 the last two seasons. He steps into a great situation in which 17 starters return. QB Herbert took over in Oregon's last seven games and although the Ducks won just once, he had a 19-4 TD-to-INT ratio. He's got quality and depth around him at the RB position, with his receivers and his OL. All five Pac-12 home games are winnable, as are home games with Southern Utah and Nebraska (?). Watch out.
Why not to be the Ducks: The Ducks draw both Washington and Stanford on the road but do have just five road contests against seven home ones in 2017. Still, there could easily be an adjustment period for Taggert (huge step up in clas for him). Yes, Oregon's defense returns nine starters but this unit allowed 37.5 PPG in 2015 and then 41.4 PPG last season. The team's 2-9-1 ATS record last year should shout caution! Oregon hosts Southern Utah and Nebraska, then plays at Wyoming and Arizona St, before hosting Cal. Anything less than a 4-1 start will make getting to nine wins too much of a hill to climb. Seven or eight wins seems about right and I don't want to count on a bowl victory to reach eight (push) or nine wins (cha-ching).
Season Win Total Pick: Under 8.0
Oregon State Beavers (2016: 4-8 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 100/1
Season Win Total: 5.5
Why to bet the Beavers: "They say" that new head coaches typically "hit their stride" in Year-3 and will that be the case for Gary Andersen? He has a trio of QBs battling for the job and the best may be 6-7 JUCO Jake Luton from Idaho. Andersen turned things around at Utah St in Year-3 and after an 11-2 season the next year, jumped ship for Wisconsin. Not sure why he left Madison for Corvallis but here he is.
Why not to be the Beavers: Oregon St draws Washington and Stanford at home, which basically means the Beavers only have four winnable chances at home. That bodes poorly when one considers OSU is 0-11 SU on the road the last two seasons and will take a 13-game road losing streak into its season-opener at Colorado St.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 5.5
Stanford Cardinal (2016: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 5/1
Season Win Total: 8.5
Why to bet the Cardinal: Jim Harbaugh began the turnaround and David Shaw has continued it in Palo Alto. Shaw's teams have averaged 10.7 wins per season and captured four of six bowl games under his tenure. The team's best offensive player is gone (RB McCaffrey) and so is its best defensive player (DT Thomas) but 16 starters return. The team's OL is strong and defensively, Stanford's LBs and DBs may be the best units in the entire Pac-12.return.
Why not to be the Cardinal: Can't imagine Stanford will struggle with Rice in its opener (in Australia) but the fact is that the Cardinal don't play their first home game until September 23. After Rice, they play at USC (conference preseason favorite) and then at San Diego St, which owns back-to-back 11-win seasons. That said, even a less-than-spectacular start shouldn't keep the Cardinal from having an "average" season for them (10 wins).
Season Win Total Pick: Over 8.5
Washington Huskies (2016: 12-2 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 9/5
Season Win Total: 10.0
Why to bet the Huskies: Chris Peterson led the Huskies to the Pac-12 championship last season in his third season in Seattle (remember that Year-3 'rule?'). Washington couldn't handle Alabama's defense in the CFP semis but finished 12-2. QB Jake Browning (43/9 ratio) is back as is RB Gaskin (1373 rush yards), so expect more fireworks for an offense that averaged 41.8 PPG. The defense followed a 2015 season when it allowed 18.8 PPG but allowing only 17.7 PPG last season and while a modest six starers return, four of the team's top-four tacklers are back. Washington has just five road games this season (again) but went a perfect 5-0 away from home last season (only Standford on Nov. 10 looms as a possible loss).
Why not to be the Huskies: Their are no compelling reasons, except one must be wary of the team's 7-7 ATS record from last year, as Washington will likely be even bigger favorites week-to-week in 2017. USC, which upset the Huskies in Seattle last year is not on the schedule but will likely be Washington's opponent in the Pac-12 championship game. However, by then, both teams will likely be at 10 wins (or more).
Season Win Total Pick: Over 10.0
Washington State Cougars (2016: 8-5 SU & 6-7 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 15/1
Season Win Total: 7.5
Why to bet the Cougars: Mike Leach struggled in his first few seasons at Pullman but his most recent two teams have won nine and eight games. Luke Falk is poised for a big year at QB in Leach's pass-happy offense and nine starters return on defense. The Cougars open with five straight home games, the last being a Friday night game at USC.
Why not to be the Cougars: The team will finish with five away games in its last seven and while Leach brings an exciting offense to each contest, one just gets the feeling he can't be trusted. Case in point was they way WSU ended last season. On an eight-game losing streak, WSU lsot 38-24 at Colorado, then 'laid a huge egg' in the Apple Cup (lost 45-17 at home to Washington) plus ) then the Cougars lost 17-12 againstt a Minnesota team depleted by suspensions in the Holiday Bowl.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 7.5
South Division
Arizona Wildcats (2016: 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 100/1
Season Win Total: 5.5
Why to bet the Wildcats: After four straight bowl trips, Rich-Rod's Wildcats imploded in 2016, winning just three games. Arizona's offensive backfield was devastated by injuries last season but a healthy Brandon Dawkins at QB will be a huge bonus. Arizona has nowhere to g o by up on the defensive side of the ball, as seven starers return from a unit which allowed 38.3 PPG. Arizona is the lone South division team that will avoid both Washington and Stanford from the North, which is a big bonus. The Wildcats open with three home games in September, visiting only a UTEP team coming off a 4-8 season
Why not to be the Wildcats: Arizona will be better in 2017 but a .500 team? The Wildcats will open the season having lost seven straight road games and only UTEP and Cal seem like possible (likely) wins. After losing eight of their last nine games in 2016, a fast start is almost a must. However, after opening at home with Northern Arizona, the Wildcats will likely be underdogs in their next four games until they host Oregon St on Nov. 11
Season Win Total Pick: Under 5.5
Arizona State Sun Devils (2016: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 60/1
Season Win Total: 5.0
Why to bet the Sun Devils: Todd Graham led ASU to four straight bowls from 2012-2015, winning 10 games in both '13 and '15. The Sun Devils opened 5-1 last season but lost their final six games. However, the team's top-two RBs plus QB Wilkins (3rd-leading rusher) are all back (among seven offensive starters). ASU gets seven home games which is good news, as under Graham, they are 25-8 SU in Tempe. In Graham's previous 11 seasons as a head coach, none of his teams have failed to win five games, with nine of the11 winning six or more (five of those teams had double-digit wins).
Why not to be the Sun Devils: The bad news is that the Pac-12's two best teams (Washington & USC) are part of ASU's home schedule, as are San Diego St. (B2B 11-win seasons) and South Division winner from 2016, Colorado.
Season Win Total Pick: Over 5.0
Colorado Buffs (2016: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 40/1
Season Win Total: 7.5
Why to bet the Buffs: Mike MacIntyre hit a 'grand slam' in his 4th season in Boulder, winning the South Division at 8-1 (10-4 overall), after his Buffs had won just 10 games in his first three seasons, including going 2-25 in Pac-12 play. The offense returns nine starters but not starting QB Liufau. MacIntyre has greatly improved Colorado's defense, cutting almost a TD off the teams' previous year's points allowed numbers to 21.7 per game in 2016. The team's season opener, a neutral-site rivalry with Colo. St will be a huge. A win and the Buffs get North Texas and No. Colorado at home before hosting Washington (would likely be 3-0 and well on their way to at least an eight-win season). The game in Denver with the Rams leaves Colorado with just five true road games and three of those five Pac-12 opponents had losing records in 2016.
Why not to be the Buffs: Two of the team's six home games will be against Washington and USC, contests Colorado is unlikely to win. What's more, UCLA and Arizona St, two teams with losing records last year, figure to be much better in 2017, making visits to the Rose Bowl and Tempe tough venues. MacIntyre did wonders with last year's defense but this year's team returns just t three starters.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 7.5
UCLA Bruins (2016: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 8/1
Season Win Total: 7.5
Why to bet the Bruins: UCLA's season was already a disappointing 3-3 with QB Seth Rosen was lost for the season. The Bruins lost the game in which Rosen got hurt, beginning a 1-6 slide. However, Rosen in back healthy, one of nine offensive starters wo are back. Few don't expect UCLA to rebound, considering that Mora's first five teams at UCLA have averaged 8.6 wins per season.
Why not to be the Bruins: Rosen may be back but UCLA has to find a way to run the ball better, after averaging a pathetic 84.6 YPG on the ground (ranked 127th in the nation!). UCLA has a brutal road schedule with visits to Stanford, Washington and USC (no wins likely, there). Home wins will be a must.
Season Win Total Pick: Over 7.5
USC Trojans (2016: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: Even
Season Win Total: 10.5
Why to bet the Trojans: Sam Darnold got the start in USC's fourth game of the season, a 31-27 loss at Utah. However, the true freshman then led USC to nine straight wins, including a wild comeback win over Penn St. in the Rose Bowl. Clay Helton's team enters 2017 as the Pac-12 favorite and rightly so. Darnold (31-9 ratio) may have just one season left in LA but it is expected to a be a memorable one. USC gets seven home games (went 6-0 SU at home in 2016) and will be favored in all five road games. The Trojans avoid Washington during the regular season and the team's toughest opponents all will visit the Coliseum.
Why not to be the Trojans: No real reasons at all.
Season Win Total Pick: Over 10.5
Utah Utes (2016: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to Win The Pac 12: 40/1
Season Win Total: 6.5
Why to bet the Utes: Utah finished last season 9-4 after a bowl win over Indiana. So what else is new? The Utes have gone to 10 bowl games in Kyle Whittingham's 12 seasons at Salt Lake City. Only nine starters return in 2017 but Utah gets seven home games. Yes, Utah draws the top-four teams from the North but the Utes get most of their Pac-12 peers at home. I like Whittingham's consistency.
Why not to be the Utes: Only nine returning starters in this highly-competitive conference spells trouble. Road games at USC and Washington are 'killers' plus visits to BYU and Oregon will be no "walk in the park." Besting Stanford and Colorado at home won't be easy and home games against Arizona St. and Washington St. are no gimmes.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 6.5