Look Aheads and Let Downs
VegasInsider.com
Alright, how many of you out there thought that five of the Top 10 teams in the country would fall last weekend? I better not see any hands raised because that was just a fluke thing to have happen. All is not lost for the likes of Florida, Rutgers, West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma. They all have conference titles to go after, if not longshot opportunity at the national championship for four of those five programs.
Let’s take a look at who is poised to get caught in the dreaded “look ahead” and “let down” spots, while searching for a quality “bounce back” candidate.
Looking towards the light…
Boston College didn’t look all that sharp in its 24-14 win over UMass. The Eagles now must gear up to fight another bird of prey when Bowling Green’s Falcons come to Chestnut Hill as 20-point road ‘dogs this Saturday. And while you could look at this in the conceited point of view by saying it’s the Mid-American Conference playing the ACC school, you are dismissing the Falcons all too quickly.
Bowling Green has played two BCS schools closely, winning against one of them using a spread offense that has scored 34.5 points per game. Plus, BC has the revival of “The Holy War” coming up next week against a depleted Notre Dame side. That adds up to a chance for the Eagles hiccupping this week as far the spread is concerned.
Going down with the ship…
It was great to see the Auburn kicker, Wes Byrum, perform the “Chomp” last week after beating the Gators as a 17 ½-point road ‘dog, 20-17. While it was a huge win for them, it could be setting them up for a big letdown. And that rude awakening arrives in the form of the Commodores this Saturday.
I know that it is hard to imagine that Vanderbilt could trip up a team that just beat a top-five squad as a 7 ½-point road underdog, but let’s look at this a little deeper. Vandy has played fairly well this year going 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS. And this is the closest line the Commodores have had against Auburn in five years. They covered the line then and should do the same now.
Red River sink or swim…
Nobody would have guessed that both Oklahoma and Texas would lose prior to their annual meeting at the Texas State Fair, but that’s the way the ball bounces. While both schools took a bad loss to lesser opponents last Saturday, the Sooners have the best chance of bouncing back in this year as 11-point favorites in Dallas, Texas.
The Sooners are averaging 54 PPG this year with a freshman quarterback Sam Bradford. Their defense is allowing just 14.8 PPG this season. Meanwhile, the Longhorns have looked soft in all, but one of their matches 2007. Texas signal caller Colt McCoy suffered a mild concussion last week and says that he’s okay for this week, but the Sooner defense has 17 sacks so far this season. Oklahoma should have no problem in handing the ‘Horns their second consecutive loss of the year.
EARLY COLLEGE FB "LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE"
goldsheet.com
Kentucky at SOUTH CAROLINA (Thursday)...Hot UK has covered 9 of past 10 games. Wildcats’ elusive RB Little (547 YR, 6.7 ypc), who hails from Anderson, S.C., pumped up for chance to perform in front of family and friends.
Utah at LOUISVILLE (Friday)...L’ville returns to Papa John’s for 1st time since suffering the biggest upset loss in TGS history (vs. Syracuse, Sept. 22)! Utah is 15-5 as road dog since 1997 (albeit just 2-3 L3+Ys). L’ville’s already embroiled 1st-year HC Kragthorpe lost vs. Utes in LY’s Armed Forces Bowl when he was Tulsa head man.
Virginia Tech at CLEMSON...Clemson will be sky high in "Death Valley" following ugly 24-7 upset loss at Blacksburg LY, which snapped then-torrid Tigers (ranked 10th nationally) 7-game win streak. Clemson’s high-octane attack compiled just 166 yds. & 8 FDs.
Wake Forest at DUKE...Not surprised visitor has covered 4 straight between these nearby schools on "Tobacco Road." WF soph QB Skinner, who got his 1st start due to injury year ago, completed 22 of 29 for 235 yds. But due to stellar performance by Duke QB Lewis (21 of 32 for 305 yds.), Deacons needed to block 28-yd. FG attempt on final play of game to escape with 14-13 win.
Kansas at KANSAS STATE...After KSU had dominated rivalry for nearly a decade (9 straight wins & covers from ‘95-‘03), KU has turned it around in Lawrence, capturing last two when hosting. But Jayhawks have now failed to cover last 6 in Manhattan, losing by avg. 31 pts. KSU committed season-high 6 TOs in 39-20 loss LY, with KU scoring one TD on 42-yd. int. return.
Florida at LSU...LSU eager to show that LY’s 23-10 loss to the defending national champs was a fluke. Tigers did have 8 more FDs and outgained Gators 318-288, but they couldn’t overcome season-high 5 TOs and a blocked punt. Florida’s "franchise" QB Tebow shined in nationally-televised clash, throwing 2 TD passes (remenber the jump pass right before halftime) & had 35 YR in 9 carries.
Iowa at PENN STATE...Penn State thrilled to finally get another crack at Iowa (last meeting in ‘04) after dropping 5 straight in series (4 of those losses by combined 18 pts., 2 in OT).
Cincinnati at RUTGERS...Rutgers has been aching for rematch following stunning 30-11 upset loss at Cincy LY. Scarlet Knights claimed they were emotionally drained from 28-25 upset win vs. L’Ville week before. Rutgers trailed 10-0 in 2nd Q, when Knight QB Teel threw an int. (4 for game!) returned 84 yds. for Bearcat TD. Rutgers ace RB Rice especially revved-up after gaining season-low 54 yds. in 18 tries. Cincy HC Kelly is 21-5-2 vs. spread last 2+Ys, mostly at Central Michigan.
Stanford at SOUTHERN CAL...Trojan HC Carroll might not mind running up the score after Stanford HC Harbaugh reportedly raised his ire when Harbaugh said in preseason this would be Carroll’s last year as USC head coach. Harbaugh also said at Pac-10 football media day, "USC may be the best team in the history of college football." Carroll quipped, "I love Jim, don’t you? I’m glad he thinks that."
Iowa State at TEXAS TECH...TT has been good bully in Lubbock, going 9-4 as DD chalk since 2002 (0-1 TY). Red Raiders will take great delight in beating ISU’s new HC Chizik, who served as Texas co-d.c. in both ‘05 & ‘06
College Football Power Rankings: The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo
Polls and rankings can be a gambler's best friend when it comes to wagering on large groups of vicious and volatile college students, the type that paint their faces, don high density polyurethane shells, and assemble each week to thrash each other on the gridiron. Polls and rankings set the general consensus on how strong a certain team is, regardless of Truth, and that makes them a tool for exploiting a misinformed betting public.
But this ranking system is going to work a little differently. We have enough rampant conjecture across the nation in regards to college football so I have set out to provide my faithful readers with some info that should enrich their gambling lives. The result: the Ferringo 15.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other convoluted, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
Below I've listed teams that have been and hopefully will continue to be the most profitable teams for bettors this season. It's still early in the season so there will likely be a lot of fluctuation from week to week. But after we've had some time to get the lay of the land these rankings will be buttressed by solid, visceral performance.
The Ferringo 15 only managed a 6-6 weekend, dropping their mark to a combined 29-17 ATS on the season. As I suspected, some of our teams have peaked from a value perspective and I think they may struggle over the next few weeks as the books start to overcompensate. Without further ado, here is our Week 6 version of the Ferringo 15:
1) South Florida (3-0 Against the Spread) - The Power of the Ferringo 15 was in full effect last Friday as the Bulls blasted West Virginia. But beware Florida Atlantic. The number on USF's next game has dropped faster than Katie Couric's ratings and it's tough not to expect a letdown after that monumental win for their program. They're on the road, against inferior competition, and the Bulls barely escaped with a 21-20 win at home against a comparably talented Florida International squad.
2) Purdue (3-1 ATS) - The Boilers became the first team not to cover against lowly Notre Dame last week, just one week after barely covering against lowly Minnesota. Since they've been out of MAC play they haven't exactly been overwhelming. Perhaps the ship has sailed. I actually think that a blowout loss at the hands of Ohio State could actually increase their stock heading into a Michigan game that I think they win outright.
4) Anyone Playing Notre Dame (4-1) - Well, it was bound to happen sooner or later. The Irish used a late comeback to manufacture their first payday of the season. And, judging by the early line movement, they're taking some action for their upcoming tilt against UCLA. Notre Dame pulled a win out of its ass last year against the Bruins and I think that this game is going to be a mismatch from start to finish.
5) Oklahoma (4-1) - Every week I've had the same thing to say about Oklahoma: Wow. Well, no need to alter my sentiments this week. A stunning loss in Boulder has taken some of the shine off this nuclear weapon. And here's a harrowing stat for this weekend's Texas game: teams off an upset loss as a 20-plus point favorite are just 3-14 ATS the following week if they're posted as a favorite.
6) Cincinnati (4-0) - Just like my boys in South Florida, the word is out on the Bearcats. I really like the way they tore an undermanned San Diego State team apart last week without looking ahead to Rutgers. There is no doubt in my mind that the Bearcats are better than Rutgers, but it remains to be seen if they can handle the emotion they'll be facing from the revenge-minded Knights. This is Cincy's third road game in four weeks as well so you have to wonder if there will be some wear on those tires.
10) Central Florida (3-1) - George O'Leary's boys have been putting a lot of pressure on teams with CUSA's No. 1 offense. But the key to this team as a moneymaker is that skull-cracking defense. Central Florida is just 5-11 SU on the road in conference play since the start of 2003 and they are just 17-26 ATS on the road since opening day of 2000.
7) Kentucky (4-1) - Here we have another team that we've been on from the start of the season that may have reached its peak value. The Wildcats have not only been winning, but winning dramatically as an underdog in its last two weeks. It's tough to top that combo for UK backers. But now they get into the thick of the SEC schedule, with bluebloods like Florida and LSU coming up this month.
8) Boston College (3-1) - I think this Bowling Green game is actually a potential landmine for Eagles backers. B.C. has been sleepwalking through the past two weeks against Army and UMass. They have Notre Dame on deck, followed by a bye, and then the heart of the ACC slate. The Eagles haven't covered in a game against a MAC foe in their last three tries. We're going to learn something about Jeff Jagodzinski based on how he handles this one.
9) Oregon (4-1) - This is a critical juncture in Oregon's season. They have to stew about their stunning home loss to Cal for two weeks until they host Washington State for homecoming on Oct. 13. They always struggle with the Cougars. Then they have an obvious look ahead spot at Washington before hosting USC. This is dangerous territory for a program that has become too adept at midseason collapses.
10) UCLA (4-1) - Their 28-point fourth quarter eruption at Oregon State shows that the Bruins are back at the top of their game. I don't think the Bruins will be looking past Notre Dame this week with a huge game against Cal on the horizon. UCLA has unfinished business with the Irish. They dominated the line of scrimmage last year in a 20-17 loss, and the Bruins should overwhelm Notre Lame again this week.
11) Kansas (3-0) - Finally, a test. The Jayhawks get credit for thrashing inferior opponents. But now they're matched up against a school that can throw some blows. Kansas has endured six straight Manhattan muggings at the hands of the Wildcats. The home team has won five of six in this series and even though K-State is coming off a huge upset win they do have revenge on their side.
12) Missouri (3-0) - The Tigers have been rolling on offense, but I hate backing favorites that have a defense I don't trust. Nebraska can score. Missouri can score. But whose defense can get a stop or force a turnover? The Huskers have dropped their last two games in Columbia by 17 points apiece and you definitely have to wonder about whether Sam Keller has that Big Time Game in him because I know Chase Daniels does.
13) Arizona State (4-1) - I, personally, think that the Sun Devils are slowly tick-tick-ticking their way to the top of the roller coaster. I just don't think they're as good as they've been playing and I'm not overly impressed with any of their wins. But they've won and cashed consistently so here they are. ASU has won seven of 10 in their series with Washington State, including last year's 47-14 mauling.
14) South Carolina (3-1) - If their line against Kentucky, presently set at 3.5, were this small and Jasper Brinkley was still on the field I'd be throwing the house on the Gamecocks. But the guy was USC's defensive heart and soul and they're meeting up with one of the SEC's top offenses. Steve Spurrier is 14-0 in his career against the Wildcats and USC has won seven in a row in this series. But four of the last five have been decided by a touchdown or less.
15) Illinois (3-1) - Here's a hearty "Welcome Back!" to the Fightin' Illini. Illinois was No. 11 on our original F15 but then got laid out by Missouri. After their big win against the Nittany Lions our boys are back in the mix and boasting the one thing that no Big Ten team seems to have an answer for: speed. Unfortunately, Juice Williams hasn't turned the corner yet as a passer, which will make them a dicey road bet. But they're at home this weekend against an imminently beatable Wisconsin team.
Others receiving votes: UNLV (3-2), Indiana (3-1), Ball State (4-1), Vanderbilt (2-1), Rutgers (2-1), Ohio (3-1), Troy (4-1), Army (3-1).
Dropped out: Iowa (3-2).
docsports.com
Overrated College Teams
by T.O. Whenham
With the season suddenly turning into a circus last weekend, a lot of teams took a freefall down the college football rankings. It must have been a very difficult week for those who had poll ballots to fill out, because it would be hard to find enough teams to move up so that the teams that deserve to drop can drop as far as they deserve. That means that there are going to be teams that are overrated. The public pays a great deal of attention to the rankings, and will give a team much more respect if it has been voted somewhere into the top 25. That means that there can be value on the opponents of ranked teams if the team is ranked higher than they deserve to be and if they may not be able to play up to the standard of their ranking. Here's a look at five ranked teams that are, in my opinion, overrated and over-ranked right now.
No. 5 - Wisconsin. Sure, they're unbeaten, but the Badgers have done little to impress this year. After a decent season opening win over Washington State, they struggled to beat UNLV, let the Citadel score 31 points, barely snuck by an Iowa team that had lost to Iowa State the week before, and held off Michigan State by a field goal. That puts them at 1-3 ATS, and they haven't covered since the opening weeks. The way they are playing they could be challenged by the upstart Illini this week, or several other games down the road. This is certainly a Top 25 team, but they really don't look like they belong in the Top 10. The public seems to share that opinion - Illinois is favored by three at home.
No. 8 Kentucky. This is a great story, and Andre Woodson has been exceptional, but No. 8 is way higher than they should be at this point in their development. They are 5-0, and 4-0 ATS, but you have to look deeper. Three of their wins, against Eastern Kentucky, Kent State and Florida Atlantic, were to be expected. The win against Arkansas was solid, but they are certainly not the team they were last year. The victory over Louisville looked better at the time than it did after that terribly flawed team went out and lost to Syracuse the next week. They have done what they have done, and they deserve the respect they have received, but now they have South Carolina, LSU and Florida in three straight weeks, and I suspect that they are not ready to perform over that stretch like the eighth best team in the country should.
No. 15 - Virginia Tech. I watched the Hokies beat North Carolina on Saturday. That's three hours of my life I wish I could get back. Their defense looked good, though not nearly as good as it should given the talent they have, and the hype they came into the season with. Offensively they are just painfully inept. They don't have a solid quarterback, and their latest choice, Tyrod Taylor, is nursing a groin injury. If he misses time it's not much of a loss, though - he managed only 66 yards passing against North Carolina. The team is 0-4 ATS, and their absolute destruction by LSU is testament to the depth of their problems. So is the attitude of coach Frank Beamer. When he was interviewed walking off the field after the win last weekend he looked like he wished he had retired last offseason. Virginia Tech looks like one of those teams that is only as high as they are because they started high. If they had started unranked they would probably still be there.
No. 20 - Cincinnati. I think that the Bearcats are a great story, and coach Brian Kelly is certainly deserving of a major program in the near future, but this is a hollow ranking. They are 5-0, and 4-0 ATS. People are making all sorts of noise about what a surprise this is, but one look at their schedule tells you that it was probably expected, and certainly not that much of a stretch. A big win over Oregon State was impressive, but the Beavers aren't exactly a powerhouse. The other four wins are over S.E. Missouri State, Miami of Ohio, Marshall and San Diego State. They were favored by at least seven in all of those games with a line. At the very least they should be 4-1 over that stretch given their talent, so 5-0 should not be a shock, and it shouldn't really have them in the Top 20. Over the next four weeks they face Rutgers, Louisville and South Florida, so we will see how they measure up in the Big East. The team hasn't been ranked since 1976. They had better enjoy it, because I don't think that it will last for long.
No. 23 - Purdue. I'm a Big Ten guy, so I hate picking on my conference, but this is the second team from that group that deserves a spot on this list. They are 5-0, and more than 44 points scored per game is a sure way to grab the attention of the public and the poll voters. It's also a pretty good way to hide the flaws of a team. Their offense is potent, but their defense is completely useless. They let Minnesota gain 469 yards and score 31 points. The Gophers had 277 yards and seven points the next week against Ohio State. Notre Dame looked almost competent, with 252 passing yards and three touchdowns. The team has shown very little ability to stop anyone through the air, and this could be a real problem the next couple of weeks against Ohio State and Michigan. Heck, Anthony Morelli could even look good against the Purdue secondary.
docsports.com
Big Ten Report
By ASA
Illinois looks to surpass its win total for the last two seasons combined. Penn State and Iowa square off in a battle between programs that are winless in conference action. Unblemished records are on the line when Purdue hosts Ohio State. And Wisconsin looks to maintain its undefeated record despite numerous close calls.
Here’s a look forward to the week that will be in the Big Ten.
Illinois
The Illini won the biggest game of the Ron Zook era with their 27-20 upset of Penn State last weekend, matching their combined win total of the previous two years. They’ll have a chance to top that win this weekend when they host the 5th-ranked Badgers as 2.5-point home favorites.
Much of Illinois’ success this year has been the result of a dominating ground game. Running back Rashard Mendenhall and quarterback Juice Williams lead an offense that is sixth in the country with 255.6 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin allowed 241 rushing yards on 6.5 yards per carry against Michigan State last week. If the Illini can match that, and they easily could, they could post their second consecutive huge win.
Illinois very nearly upset Wisconsin last year, taking a 24-10 lead into halftime before being outscored 20-0 in the second half. The Illini were 22-point road favorites in that matchup and are 2.5-point home favorites this time around. They haven’t been favored over the Badgers since 2001 but are 4-2 ATS during that stretch. Dating back to 1981, Illinois is 6-1 ATS versus Wisconsin following a win.
Indiana
Indiana improved to 4-1 with its 38-20 road win over Iowa, marking just the second time since 1994 that it has gone 4-1 to start a season. The Hoosiers will aim to improve to 5-1 for the first time since 1994 when they host Minnesota Saturday as 14-point favorites.
Hoosier quarterback Kellen Lewis is coming off a career-best 322 passing yards and now gets to pick apart Minnesota’s nation-worst pass defense. The Gophers are allowing 368 passing yards per game so Lewis and lanky wideout James Hardy, who has caught seven of Lewis’ 14 touchdown throws, should have a field day.
This meeting marks the first time since 1998 that the Hoosiers have been favored over Minnesota. Indiana has lost the last two meetings by an average of 29 points but has won three of the last four meetings in Bloomington. This game also marks the first time since 2000 and just the second time since 1994 that the Hoosiers are double-digit home favorites in conference action. Indiana has lost the last four contests under that scenario.
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz was once considered a strong candidate for an NFL coaching job. That candidacy has probably lost all steam after the Hawkeyes lost their seventh straight conference game and third straight overall. They’ll trap to snap both streaks this weekend as 9.5-point road dogs at Penn State.
The Hawkeyes were, at the very least, competitive through four weeks behind a stellar defense that allowed just 29 points. Then the Hoosiers came into town and dropped 38 points in one game. The Iowa offense isn’t explosive enough to score that many points so the defense will have to return to its previous form if the Hawkeyes are to stay close with Penn State.
Iowa has had Joe Paterno’s number over the years, going 6-1 both SU and ATS since 1996. The Hawkeyes have won all four meetings, both SU and ATS, in Happy Valley. They were underdog in each of those four games, covering by an average of 13.1 points per meeting.
Michigan
The Wolverines won their third straight game, albeit in ugly fashion, in Chad Henne’s successful return to the lineup. Michigan was outgained in its 28-16 win over Northwestern but five forced turnovers made the difference. They’ll turn their attention away from conference action this week when they host Eastern Michigan as 30.5-point favorites.
Henne started the game, gave way to backup Ryan Mallett late in the first half, and returned to lead Michigan to 21 unanswered second-half points. The Wolverines, namely Henne, will have a chance to get healthy before returning to Big Ten action when they host a bad Eastern Michigan team. The Eagles are 115th in the country in total offense and will have little chance of moving the ball against a Michigan defense that has allowed an average of just 8.3 points per game over its last three outings.
This game marks the third time since 1998 that these programs have met with the Wolverines winning both games by an average of 47 points per game. Additionally, Michigan has never lost to a member of the MAC, going 12-0 SU and 7-4 ATS. Finally, the Wolverines have been favored by 30 or more points 22 times since 1980 but are just 8-14 ATS in those games.
Michigan State
The Mark Dantonio era in East Lansing finally saw its first loss after winning its first four games. Now the question becomes whether Dantonio repeats former Spartans coach John L. Smith’s history of letting the season unravel or if he quickly gets the team back on track. Michigan State fans everywhere will find out this weekend when the Spartans host Northwestern as 14.5-point favorites.
Last year’s meeting with Northwestern was home to the biggest comeback in college football history. The Spartans trailed 38-3 midway through the third quarter but scored 38 unanswered points in just 22 minutes of game action to pull out a 41-38 win. Dantonio would prefer if they didn’t go that route this time around.
Michigan State has been favored in the last three meetings between the programs but has failed to cover each game and are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings overall. Conversely, the Spartans have been double-digit favorites in conference play 11 times since 1998, going 7-4 ATS in those contests.
Minnesota
The Minnesota defense showed signs of improvement but the offense regressed from previous performances. Head coach Tim Brewster is just 1-4 in his inaugural season at the helm and needs both units to come together if the Gophers are to turn things around. Brewster will be hoping for just that when Minnesota plays in Indiana as 14-point dogs.
The sad of state of affairs for the Minnesota defense can be exemplified by the fact that the 30 points and 459 total yards allowed both marked season-lows. The Gophers still remain among the nation’s worst in almost every defensive category and will have their hands full against Indiana’s 23rd-ranked scoring offense.
Minnesota hung 63 points on the Hoosiers in last year’s meeting en route to a 63-26 win. Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Big Ten contests, a stretch that started with its win against Indiana. The Gophers have won the last two meetings by an average of 29 points and have covered six of the last eight meetings. This game marks the first meeting since 1998 that Minnesota is receiving points and the first time since 1997 that it has been double-digit dogs.
Northwestern
The Wildcats put forth a spirited effort but dropped their third straight game in a 28-16 loss to Michigan. They were once again without running back Tyrell Sutton, who has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons on his resume, and could very well be without him for the remainder of the season. Northwestern will try to move on when it plays Michigan State as 14.5-point road underdogs.
Perhaps the biggest difference between Northwestern’s two wins to open the season and its current three-game skid has been the play of quarterback C.J. Bacher. The junior QB threw four touchdowns and no interceptions in the season’s first two games but has thrown for zero scores while throwing seven picks in the last three games. Bacher threw three touchdowns in last year’s meeting with Michigan State and will need a similar effort in this meeting if the Wildcats are to compete.
Northwestern has lost two of its last three games against the Spartans but has covered each and has done so as underdogs of 9.5 points or more. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall as the dog and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit home loss. Michigan State, meanwhile, is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 conference battles.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes extended two winning streaks with their 30-7 win over Minnesota, lengthening their regular season streak to 23 straight and their conference streak to 16. They can match the school record for consecutive Big Ten victories with a win over Purdue as 7-point road favorites this weekend.
The Ohio State defense continues to stymie opposing offenses, holding a potent Minnesota offense to just seven points and 277 total yards. The Buckeyes are now second in the country in total defense, third in scoring offense, fourth in rushing defense and sixth in pass defense. They’ll get their first real test when they take on Purdue’s eighth-ranked offense this weekend.
These two programs haven’t met since the 2004 season, a meeting that saw the Buckeyes lose 24-17 as 5.5-point dogs. Prior to that meeting, though, Ohio State had gone 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the previous 10 meetings. The Buckeyes have fared very well recently both on the road and as favorites, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as the favorite.
Penn State
Any slim hopes the Nittany Lions had of winning the Big Ten conference were completely eliminated when they fell at Illinois to drop to 0-2 in conference action. Penn State will look to get one in the win column when it hosts Iowa, also winless in conference action, as 9.5-point favorites.
The Penn State running game has averaged fewer than four yards per carry the last two weeks and won’t fare much better against Iowa’s 14th-ranked rush defense. That puts the offensive load of the shoulders of quarterback Anthony Morelli, which is a scary thought for Nittany Lions fans. Morelli has completed just 52 percent of his passes the last two weeks with three interceptions compared to just one touchdown. He has thrown eight touchdowns with just one pick in Penn State’s three wins so the Nittany Lions need him to be careful with the ball.
Joe Paterno has struggled against the Hawkeyes recently, going 1-6 both SU and ATS in the last seven meetings, including losses in all four home games. The Nittany Lions were favored in all four of those contests but lost all four outright. Both teams have struggled in conference action, though, with Penn State going 0-4 ATS in its last four Big Ten contests and Iowa going 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference battles.
Purdue
The Boilermakers improved to 5-0 for the first time since the start of the 2004 season. They proceeded to lose their next four games during that campaign and will look to avoid a repeat this year. It won’t be easy as Purdue hosts fourth-ranked Ohio State as 7-point underdogs.
The high-octane Purdue offense, which is averaging 45.4 points per game, will get its first real test when it takes on an Ohio State defense that is allowing just 7.2 points a game. The Boilermakers have scored at least 33 points in each of their five games while the Buckeyes have allowed just 36 points all season. Purdue needs to prove that its previous five games, all coming against weak defensive units, weren’t flukes if it is to remain undefeated.
Purdue is just 4-16 SU and 9-11 ATS versus Ohio State since 1981 but has fared well lately. It may just be 2-3 SU in the last five meetings but is 4-1 ATS in those contests, including a SU and ATS win the last time these teams squared off in 2004. Overall, the home team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Wisconsin
All signs point to the currently undefeated Badgers to fall eventually as they have looked less than impressive in each of their last four wins, squeaking out fourth-quarter wins in three of those four victories. That loss could come this weekend when Wisconsin travels to the play the upstart Illini as 2.5-point underdogs.
The usually stout Badger defense hasn’t been quite the same as previous editions. It is 53rd in the nation with more than 360 total yards allowed per game and must tighten up its run defense against Illinois. Wisconsin allowed Michigan State to run for 241 yards last week and must now try to contain the Illini’s sixth-ranked run offense.
Wisconsin has won the last four meetings between the programs SU but has lost the last two ATS. The Badgers needed a big second-half comeback to beat Illinois last year and won’t be able to fall behind early in this year’s meeting. This game marks the first time since 2001 that Wisconsin has been the dog in this series, which doesn’t bode well. The Badgers are just 4-7 ATS as the underdog versus the Illini since 1981.
Michigan won't have to forfeit games
October 4, 2007
ANN ARBOR, Mich. (AP) -Michigan won't have to forfeit any football games for using an ineligible freshman player.
Michigan last month reported an administrative error involving safety Artis Chambers to the Big Ten. Chambers played in three games, including a 14-9 victory over Penn State, but wasn't eligible under the conference's freshman rules.
He will keep his athletic scholarship and can continue practicing with the team, but he will miss the rest of the season, the university said Thursday. The conference said Michigan (3-2 overall, 2-0 Big Ten) will not have to forfeit games.
Athletic director Bill Martin previously said he could not talk about Chambers' case because of privacy laws. Coach Lloyd Carr has declined comment.