College Football Opening Line Report Week 1
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
It doesn’t take a lot of effort or research to see where these numbers have moved since they came out over the summer. Some of them have moved significantly. However, that won’t be the only movement that we see from these games. In fact, we’ve already seen some movement early in the week.
Week 1 is such a different beast than the other weeks because lines sit and marinate for a while. There are waves of steam and periods of downtime. Once game week hits, however, everybody is more prepared for the start of the season. Early on, the lines are handicapper vs. oddsmaker. Now, the lines are handicapper vs. bookmaker vs. other handicappers vs. general public. Also, once game week hits, limits are increased. Limits over the summer on college games generally range from $1,000 to $2,000. Now, limits are in the $5,000 and $10,000 range, with even higher limits coming Thursday/Friday and then on game day.
Totals also debuted late last week for the Week 1 games and a lot of those have seen some significant movement in the betting market. Totals are going to be extremely soft and inefficient at the outset of the season, so look for those to move very quickly until the market settles in late September and early October.
With that in mind, let’s look at some openers and some of the movers early in Week 1 of the college football season:
Ohio State at Indiana (+20.5, 58) – BetOnline and 5Dimes both got caught with their pants down on this total. The opener was in the 51/52 range and now sits on Tuesday morning at 58. Keep in mind that one limit hit or two will move a total drastically early on in the season, so this probably wasn’t an avalanche of money, but there are a lot of bettors out there that sit and pick off college football totals with the very soft openers. This was a soft opener and it got hit hard.
Colorado State vs. Colorado (-5, 66) – The neutral-site affair in Denver between the Rams and Buffaloes has been the subject of sharp money this week on both the side and total. The Buffaloes were a touchdown favorite throughout the summer, but Colorado State’s 58-point effort against Oregon State seems to have led to some adjustments. The Rams have a game under their belts and the Buffaloes do not, which is also a contributing factor. Colorado State scored 58 and allowed 27, so the move on the over from 63.5 to 66 is not surprising either.
Navy at Florida Atlantic (+10, 68.5) – The Midshipmen and the Owls meet in a strange Week 1 matchup. The Owls haven’t seen a whole lot of triple-option, nor has new defensive coordinator Chris Kiffin. With the hype train gaining steam for FAU based on some new transfers and a new coaching staff, Navy’s -14.5 line has dwindled to -10. Expect to see some sharp buy back if we get a 9.5 to pop on this game, but nobody seems to be going in that direction yet. The total on this game went up a couple points after opening, but has been bet back to around the original number in the 68.5 range.
Washington at Rutgers (+27.5, 52) – Rutgers has been the preferred side for early bettors. Yesterday’s announcement that Azeem Victor was among three players sidelined for this game via injury/suspension may have been a catalyst, but sharp players likely have this number below 28 in their power ratings and that’s where it sits now. Washington doesn’t have much incentive to go cross-country and beat Rutgers badly.
Boston College at Northern Illinois (+3, 52) – This is a line move that means a lot more to a bettor than some of the others. Any move that goes through a single-digit key number is important. That’s what we have here, as some shops went up to Boston College -3.5 before the sharp money, circling like sharks, grabbed most of the +3.5s that were out there. BC appears to be the sharp side, but we’ll have to wait and see if that holds true throughout the week.
South Carolina vs. North Carolina State (-4.5, 52.5) – This has been one of the more fascinating lines of the week. It appears that different groups of sharp bettors have different opinions. We saw this number sit dormant for a while and then it got pushed up to -6 on Monday. Immediate buy back hit the market and the Gamecocks took on money to go back down to 4.5. It’s unlikely that somebody was massaging this number, but getting a semi key number of 6 on this game was a good grab for the sharp players that got invested at that point.
UMass at Coastal Carolina (+2.5, 56.5) – UMass lost at home to Hawaii to open the season. They opened an underdog for Coastal Carolina’s first FBS game and money immediately poured in on the Minutemen. That number drove right through zero and gave us a notable flipped favorite. Public money isn’t getting invested in a UMass vs. Coastal Carolina game, so this was all sharp money driving the move. The Minutemen have already played a game. The Chanticleers start life as an FBS member without head coach Joe Moglia, who took a medical leave. We’ll have to see where this number ends up settling, but those that took the +3 opener may end up with a really nice six-point middle.
Louisville vs. Purdue (+24.5, 67.5) – Sharp bettors have been biding their time waiting to see this game move. It finally did yesterday. Purdue should be much improved under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm. This is a neutral-site game in Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium, but Louisville opened a sizable 26.5-point favorite. Some of the 24s that popped have been bumped back up to 24.5, so Purdue may not be a truly sharp position as of yet. Keep in mind that public investment will be fairly heavy this week as everybody takes the rubber band off the bankroll for the first time since the Super Bowl. Sharp players may wait to see what they can grab after some Louisville steam rolls in on Saturday.
Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee State (+3.5, 58) – The Blue Raiders were catching 5 and there were some 4.5s and 4s out there yesterday, but the majority of those have left the market. Most books are showing 3.5 with additional juice to take the hook, so it is very clear that MTSU is the sharp side in this spot. That shouldn’t come as a surprise to anybody.
BYU vs. LSU (-16, 48) – The change of venue has created an adjusted line for the BYU vs. LSU game. Initially slated to be played in Houston, this game would have had a pretty neutral crowd. Now, with the game moved to New Orleans because of Hurricane Harvey, the LSU line has been inflated a bit. It is more or less a home game for LSU. The late change means tickets should be extremely affordable and the stands will be packed with Tigers fans. It doesn’t help that BYU looked bad against Portland State, but the change of venue is very significant here.
Tennessee at Georgia Tech (+3, 56) – Two notable moves in this game, as the side has gone down and so has the total. Georgia Tech looks to be the preferred sharp side here now that the +4 numbers have disappeared. This number actually went down to 2.5 at some shops on Monday, but sharp players quickly gobbled up that line value. The total here opened 63, but got bet down rapidly to 56. Again, keep in mind that it doesn’t take a ton of investment to move totals at this stage of the game.
NCAAF Week 1 Opening Line Report
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (+7)
These perennially strong teams open the season Saturday with a neutral-site contest at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, in prime time with an 8 p.m. ET kickoff.
Alabama has played in the last two national championship games, earning a split against Clemson in both cases. Last season, the Crimson Tide rolled up a 13-0 SU record in the regular season (9-4 ATS), then bounced Washington 24-7 as a 12.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff semifinals. But it was a bitter end to the season, as ‘Bama gave up a last-second touchdown to lose the final to Clemson 35-31 giving 6.5 points.
Florida State had a bumpy first eight weeks of the 2016 season, going 5-3 SU (4-3 ATS), but the Seminoles didn’t lose the rest of the way, finishing 10-3 SU (8-4 ATS). Florida State capped the year with a thrilling 33-32 victory over Michigan in the Orange Bowl.
“This line is currently exactly where we opened – Alabama 7-point chalk,” Mason said, noting this game first went up on the board back in June. “Not too much movement one way or another. No surprise this game is getting more early action than any other. Action so far has been pretty even, with 52 percent of the early bettors backing ‘Bama.”
No. 16 Florida Gators vs. No. 9 Michigan Wolverines (-5)
It’s another big neutral-site non-conference game on opening weekend, with both these teams looking to make a big early splash in this 3:30 ET kickoff on Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.
Michigan got out of the gate 9-0 SU (5-4 ATS) in 2016, but lost three of its last four, including the aforementioned 33-32 Orange Bowl setback to Florida State to finish at 10-3 SU (6-7 ATS). Florida went 9-4 SU (5-7-1 ATS) in 2016, ending the regular season with a loss at Florida State, followed by a 54-16 blowout setback to Alabama in the SEC title game. But the Gators got it back together for the Outback Bowl, drubbing Iowa 30-3 as a 1.5-point favorite.
“This game is shaping up to be our biggest decision of the weekend,” Mason said, noting the line is now Michigan -3.5. “Sixty-nine percent of the early bettors are on the Wolverines. Michigan is taking on more bets than any other team on the betting board so far.”
Florida will be without star wideout Antonio Callaway, who was among seven Gators suspended for this game a couple of weeks ago.
Louisiana State Tigers vs. Brigham Young Cougars (+12)
This neutral-site game, set for 9:30 p.m. ET Saturday, took on more intrigue Monday when it was moved from Houston’s NRG Stadium to New Orleans’ Superdome, due to Hurricane Harvey. That forced BetOnline.ag to take it off the board for the moment to reassess.
LSU is coming off an 8-4 SU campaign (6-6 ATS) that included the firing of Les Miles, who was replaced by interim coach Ed Orgeron, who now heads up the program. The Tigers capped the season with a 29-9 victory over Louisville laying 3 points in the Citrus Bowl.
BYU won its last five games and eight of its last nine in 2016 to finish 9-4 SU and ATS. The Cougars edged Wyoming 24-21 giving 10 points in the Poinsettia Bowl.
“Some significant movement since opening LSU as 12-point favorites, with BYU currently getting 14.5,” Mason said, just before the game was taken down. “This one is getting very lopsided action from the public, with 81 percent on the Tigers minus the points.”
Texas A&M Aggies at UCLA Bruins (-3)
UCLA is coming off a dumpster-fire season in which it went 4-8 SU and ATS. The Bruins lost six of their last seven games, including the last two to Pac-12 rivals Southern California (36-14 at home getting 13 points) and California (36-10 laying 3 points on the road).
Texas A&M had a better 2016, but hit the skids after a stout 6-0 SU start (4-2 ATS), finishing the season 8-5 SU (4-9 ATS) and failing to cash in its final nine games. That included a 33-28 loss to Kansas State as a 4-point favorite in the Texas Bowl.
“After opening as a field-goal favorite, UCLA is currently - 3.5 (-118),” Mason said of action on this 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday night kickoff at the Rose Bowl. “About 57 percent of early bettors are on the Bruins so far.”
Opening Line Report - Week 1
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Before teams have played a game, opinions on how good or bad they may be tend to vary. At least that’s what we found when we spoke to two Las Vegas bookmakers – the South Point’s Chris Andrews and the Westgate SuperBook’s Ed Salmons – ahead of the Week 1 college football card.
Andrews and Salmons shared their thoughts on some of the key games set for Labor Day Weekend, and in many cases, those thoughts did not mirror each other.
Florida State vs. Alabama (-7, 49.5)
The line on this game – billed as one of the best openers in college football history as it pits the Nos. 1 and 3 ranked teams in the nation – has grown by at least a field goal since the South Point posted Alabama -4 as Las Vegas’ first number back in May.
Andrews says it’s been a mix of public and professional money that has pushed the number to as high as 7.5.
“A lot of business on Alabama,” Andrews said this week. “Usually it’s the sharper players that are going to play it back in May, but now we’re getting closer to game time, so it’s a lot of public money as well. It’s been a slow but steady attack on the favorite.”
By the time the Westgate posted its Week 1 lines on July 31, the market had driven the line northward, with the shop hanging Alabama -7.5 as its original number. It’s been mostly underdog money at the SuperBook since.
While the bulk of action has yet to come, as of midweek, the ticket count at the SuperBook was 53-25 in Florida State’s favor, and three times as much money had been bet on the Seminoles. Most of that action has been from casual bettors, according to Salmons.
“Everything people are reading says Florida State is considered top-5 in the country,” Salmons said. “They may not know they have a brand new offensive line and this probably isn’t going to be a good matchup for them.”
FSU +7, though, is a number Andrews believes will interest wiseguys.
“At 7, it’s begging for money on the 'dog,” he said.
‘Bama is a tricky team for bookmakers and bettors. Bookmakers have a hard time making the number high enough, and for bettors, it’s either bet against the value or bet against the year-in, year-out most dominant team in the country.
“You’re not going to get rich betting against Nick Saban, but you’re probably not going to get rich betting on him either, but all that is kind of in the number,” Andrews said.
“Florida State has a lot of guys coming back, particularly on defense,” he added. “I think it’s going to be real tough game, but people love Alabama, and you can see why. They’ve been good against the spread the past couple of years, even though it’s hard to find value betting on them. But they’re not great to bet against either.”
Michigan (-4.5, 43.5) vs. Florida
There are major unknowns on both sides of this one. Michigan is dealing with nearly wholesale turnover on what was a stellar defense last season. Florida State will be starting redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks at quarterback and has numerous players suspended for Saturday, including star wideout, Antonio Callaway.
While Michigan opened -3 at the South Point in May, the line has been a rollercoaster ride since. It was bet as low as 2.5 at the Westgate but adjusted to 4 on Aug. 13 after the first wave of Gators suspensions was announced.
On the side of Andrew's betting counter, he’d be leaning toward Michigan. “I kind of like Michigan. Florida may be a tad overrated,” he said.
To Salmons, it’s a tough game to handicap.
“There are so many new parts on Michigan this year, it’s hard to know what you’re getting,” Salmons said.
Temple at Notre Dame (-18, 55)
There’s been a big move on Notre Dame since the South Point opened the Irish an 11-point favorite in May. This despite Brian Kelly’s squad winning and covering just four games in 2016, and Temple performing as one of the best defenses in the country last season.
Don’t expect the same sort of year from either team, our bookmakers caution.
Coach Matt Rhule has since departed Philadelphia for Baylor, and four-year starting QB Phillip Walker is gone too, now with the Indianapolis Colts.
“Matt Rhule did a terrific job for them over the years, so you have to ask yourself what’s in store for Temple,” Andrews said. “Are they going to be able to just pick it up where they were? Doubtful. You’re probably looking at a pretty good drop off.”
Salmons, meanwhile, sees improvement in South Bend.
“If you look through the mock drafts of 2018, Notre Dame has four or five guys projected in the first round,” he said. “There’s a lot of things that say Notre Dame should be this big of a favorite.”
Andrews, though, believes the Irish have been bet to an overlay in this spot.
“Rhule did recruit well, so they do have talent on that team, particularly on defense, “ he said. “I think it’s a terribly inflated number. I definitely like Temple in this game with the points.”
BYU vs. LSU (-15, 47)
This game was originally scheduled for NRG Stadium in Houston, but because of Hurricane Harvey, it’s been moved to the Superdome, where the Tigers have home-field advantage. The change of venue impacted the point-spread, LSU adjusted from -12.5 to -14.5 at the South Point upon the news.
Bettors laid the bigger number, bumping the line to 16, although there’s been some buyback since.
“I think it’s getting a little high,” Andrew said when he was dealing LSU -16. “I’m not sure how great LSU’s offense is. BYU didn’t look great last week (they were one of the few teams that played), but they played a team, Portland State, that’s a lot better than people realize, and having that one game under your belt helps an awful lot.”
West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech (-4.5, 51.5)
Bookmakers don’t always agree with the pollsters, and this game is a prime example. West Virginia is ranked higher in one national poll, Virginia Tech is ranked higher in the other, yet Andrews opened the Hokies -5 in May.
Both oddsmakers like Virginia Tech this year, coach Justin Fuente a major reason. But while Salmons has a positive outlook on the Mountaineers, Andrews is down on them.
“West Virginia is one of the overrated teams (coming into the season),“ Andrews said. “People have a misconception (about them). They lost an awful lot from last year.”
Salmons’ personal ratings have Virginia Tech just a 3-point favorite, and he would shy away from laying anything over a field goal here.
Wiseguy plays
There was commonality between the South Point and Westgate in terms of the professional action they’ve been writing on Week 1.
At both shops, sharps are on:
Eastern Michigan (bet from -12.5 to -14 vs. Charlotte
Utah State (bet from +37 to +28 at Wisconsin
Marshall (bet from +8.5 to -1 vs. Miami-Ohio
Purdue (bet from +27 to +25 vs. Louisville
Middle Tennessee State (bet from +10.5 to +3 vs. Vanderbilt