College Football Opening Line Report: Week 10

College Football Opening Line Report Week 10
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

With Week 9 in the books, the focus shifts to Week 10. With games on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, bettors have had to be a bit quicker to hop on those games and get their adjustments made. One of those games, Miami of Ohio vs. Ohio, remains off the board, but mid-week MACtion means an early start to the remaining weeks of the regular season.

A bunch of numbers have already been moving around out there in the marketplace with a handful of significant moves in and around key numbers or otherwise. There are so many games this week with big implications for division races, conference races, bowl placement, and the College Football Playoff, so we should see a ton of action and interest as we head into the final month of the regular season.

Here is the College Football Opening Line Report for Week 10:

Central Michigan at Western Michigan (-6.5) – Early indications are that the market is looking to side with the dog in the Directional Michigan Showdown on Wednesday night. This isn’t a big surprise, as the Broncos will go with true freshman Reece Goddard after Jon Wassink was lost for the year with a broken collarbone. We’ll have to see if this move keeps coming or if the numbers guys are looking to get ahead of the uncertainty with the Broncos.

Northern Illinois at Toledo (-9) – This number opened on the key number of 10 and has come down a bit early in the week. Some shops are as low as 8 and others are sitting on 8.5. NIU’s defense has been terrific this season, hence the reason for the move. I’d expect this one to go back up as we get closer to kickoff with public involvement on a Toledo team that has much sexier box scores with an offense averaging over seven yards per play.

Marshall at Florida Atlantic (-9.5) – Remember when the market got burned on FAU two weeks ago? A steady stream of North Texas money hit the board and the Owls responded by hanging 69 points on the Mean Green in what was a horrendous situational spot. Well, last week we saw money hit the FAU side and that is the case here again this week. Marshall lost to FIU, which didn’t help their case, and they were a team in line for a bit of regression anyway. I had this game circled to play, but the number opened higher than I wanted and has grown anyway.

Ole Miss at Kentucky (-3.5) – Here’s a game with some significant movement around a key number early in the week. Nobody knew what to expect from Ole Miss with Shea Patterson out, but the Rebels got 368 yards from Jordan Ta’amu on just 20 completions and the team also ran for 6.8 yards per carry. Ta’amu had 8.4 yards per carry and two scores, so he racked up nearly 450 yards of total offense on his own. With that big question mark out of the way, the buy sign appears to be on for Ole Miss against a marginal Kentucky team.

Colorado at Arizona State (-4) – The Pac-12 Arizona schools have both gotten quite a bit of love lately. This week, though, Colorado is the preferred side, with an opener of 5 down to 4. Normally when we see a move from 5 to 4, a drop to 3.5 isn’t far behind because the numbers guys often piggyback early in the week since they have similar opinions. Right now, the number has stopped at 4, but it could very well keep going.

Southern Miss at Tennessee (-6) – What does it mean to you when a Conference USA school is getting early-week action against an SEC school? That’s the case here with Southern Miss at Tennessee. For whatever reason, Tennessee hasn’t fired Butch Jones yet, which allowed those astute gamblers to cash a Jim McElwain First SEC Coach Fired ticket. Anyway, with the Volunteers in a sad state, the market has hopped on the Golden Eagles. If Jones had been fired on Sunday, it would have been interesting to see where this number had gone. Whoever the interim is would be an upgrade.

Cincinnati at Tulane (-5.5) – The market is selling its Tulane stock. After a backdoor cover against South Florida, Tulane got rolled by Memphis and the Green Wave have been tumbling down power ratings over the last few weeks. It all started with the loss to FIU. Cincinnati has been a bottom-tier team for most people, but the buy sign may be lit up this week as Luke Fickell, a defensive-minded head coach, preps for the option.

South Carolina at Georgia (-25) – When we talk about key numbers, 24 doesn’t really come to mind. The move from 23.5 to 25 or even 25.5 isn’t overly significant here, but there are a lot of people that don’t really believe in South Carolina and Georgia is now a top-five team in most sets of power ratings. There will be a stopping point to this number, since South Carolina just finds ways to win or hang around in games, but public investment will come later in the week on Georgia, so numbers guys are trying to get involved.

Texas at TCU (-7) – These games are always interesting to me. TCU lost to Iowa State. Is that a sign of how good Iowa State actually is? Is that a sign of a drop-off coming for TCU? How will the market handle those situations? So far, the market’s response is to back Texas, who opened +8 and is down to +7 at most shops, with a +6.5 out in the market as well. Some books are off the board for this game as we wait to see if Sam Ehlinger can go for the Longhorns. It looks like Texas is the sharp side, though, which begs the question of which side the public will pile on? Considering TCU lost last week and people remember how competitive Texas was with USC, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, I’m betting this number goes down.

North Texas at Louisiana Tech (-3.5) – I’ll be honest. I’ve had no idea how to rate these two teams this season. The Mean Green have been a big surprise in the season-and-a-half that Seth Littrell has been at the helm. Louisiana Tech lost so much from last year’s team, but I wanted to believe in Skip Holtz and his recruiting pipeline in Ruston. I thought -4 was a better number than -3.5, but the Mean Green have been the benefactors of the early-week bets trickling in on this Conference USA tilt.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-3) – Bedlam, baby. This has been a very one-sided affair in the past. Since 2003, Oklahoma has won 12 of the 14 head-to-head meetings. From a power ratings standpoint, the line was probably right at 3.5 where it opened, but history means a lot to some bettors in these rivalry games, so the first hits have come in on the Sooners. I’d expect both public and sharp money to be on the Cowboys as limits increase, so those that want to grab the Cowboys -3 may want to do that, even with the -115 juice at most shops. Oklahoma State’s lines have been hit hard on several occasions this year.

Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-13) – After some trickles of money on the overnights on Sunday, the board lit up like the Griswold household on Monday morning. Sharp numbers guys hopped on Wake Forest +14 and +14.5 to drive this number down below two touchdowns. This is a pretty significant position, with the expectation that Notre Dame public money comes in later in the week. It isn’t a big surprise, given Wake’s defensive acumen and how the offense has looked with John Wolford at the helm.

BYU at Fresno State (-14) – Fresno State came back to earth with an outright loss as more than a three-touchdown favorite against UNLV last week. BYU won a game! Well, the market isn’t ready to sell Fresno State yet. This number opened 11.5 and then climbed to 13.5, which isn’t the most significant of moves early in the week because no key numbers have been crossed, but it is clear that the perception of BYU is way, way down. After the initial move on Fresno, though, we’ve seen some BYU money come back in early Monday morning to provide resistance and drive the number down. And then it went right back up. So who knows what’s going on here. It looks like competing sets of guys are going back-and-forth on it and one of the groups appears to have more pull.

Florida at Missouri (-3.5) – Written off early in the season, the Missouri Tigers are experiencing something of a resurgence lately. Granted, they’ve beaten Idaho and UConn over the last two weeks, but the offense has gotten it going again and the defense has gotten better as the year has gone along. With Florida firing Jim McElwain, who knows what this team will look like? Given that uncertainty, Missouri has crossed through the key number of -3 after a -2.5 open.

LSU at Alabama (-21.5) – LOL. When’s the last time Alabama was favored by this much against its chief SEC West rival? This is insane. But, the line opened -20 and was bet up. Alabama is the highest power-rated team ever for most bettors that do power ratings. Their lines can’t be set high enough, as evidenced by what we’re seeing here.

Penn State (-7.5) at Michigan State – Sparty is getting some love early in the week. We saw Penn State really struggle to contain JT Barrett and Brian Lewerke has been a pretty impressive dual-threat for Michigan State. Saquon Barkley ran back a kick and had a big touchdown run and did nothing after that. Michigan State can stop the run. Not to the effect of Ohio State, but it isn’t a big surprise to see Sparty taking on some investment here with the number opening at -9. It hasn’t crossed 7 yet, and it may not, but it is trending that way with some shops showing 7.5 -115 on the home dog in East Lansing.

Stanford at Washington State (-2.5) – Thus far, the Cougars are the preferred side, with an opener of 1 up to 2.5. It isn’t a significant move and wouldn’t be considered one until crossing 3, which is what the number will do if Bryce Love is out. Stanford looked so inept against Oregon State without Love and the market seems to have taken notice. It could have been a bit of gamesmanship from David Shaw, who expected to beat the Beavers without his star back so that he could be ready for this one, but it nearly backfired if that was the case. I’d expect to see this one touch 3 as we go along.

Arizona at USC (-7) – Another late game on Saturday has moved quite a bit, as USC is now just a touchdown favorite against Arizona. The Khalil Tate hype train is out of control right now, though deservedly so, since he has been the x factor of the Arizona season. USC has been a disappointment overall. This number probably won’t go much lower than this, but a move to 6.5 or 6 wouldn’t be the biggest surprise of the week.

Opening Line Report - Week 10
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

The college football’s Week 10 card features what looks to be a de facto ACC semifinal bracket, as Clemson visits N.C. State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) in matchup of the top two teams in the Atlantic Division, while Virginia Tech and Miami, Fl. meet at Hard Rock Stadium (8 p.m. ET, ABC) for Coastal Division supremacy.

In the earlier contest, Clemson opened a seven-point road favorite at the Wynn against an N.C. State team coming off a blowout loss at Notre Dame (35-14). While the number has remained at a touchdown at the Wynn, the game is being dealt -7.5 elsewhere in Las Vegas.

While most college football observers have Clemson rated higher than Notre Dame, N.C. State was catching 7.5 in South Bend, which may suggest Saturday’s number is generous for underdog bettors.

Clemson’s only loss of the season came against Syracuse and after starting quarterback Kelly Bryant was knocked out of the game with a concussion just before halftime. With Bryant healthy, Clemson is a no-doubt top-five team, according to William Hill U.S. director of trading Nick Bogdanovich.

“It’s always the reaction to what you saw last,” Bogdanovich said of the opening line for next week’s game in Raleigh. “N.C. State got hammered by a quality team; Clemson got their quarterback back and looked real good against Georgia Tech (in a 24-10 win).

“I see it sitting between 7 and 7.5, I think that’s a pretty good number.”

In the later ACC tilt, Virginia Tech opened -2.5 at Miami, a line that bounced between 2.5 and 3 in the first 24 hours of wagering at the Wynn. Miami remains undefeated but still isn’t getting much respect among pollsters and bookmakers alike.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons and CG Technology’s Jason Simbal share the opinion that Miami is fortunate to be 7-0.

“They’ve had three lucky wins (in their last four),” Simbal said, mentioning the Hurricanes’ victories over Florida State, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. “They played North Carolina, who’s terrible and had half their players benched, and they barely won (24-19 this past Saturday).”

Added Salmons, “Miami is an accident waiting to happen, and it’s not surprising that Virginia Tech is favored. I expect that line to go way over 3 as the game approaches, and I think Virginia Tech is going to kill ‘em. Miami is a complete fraud.”

Here are four more key games on Saturday’s college football card:

Penn State (-8 ) at Michigan State

Penn State opened -12 at the Wynn before a big early move on Michigan State pushed the spread all the way down to -8. Sharp bettors may be playing the college football handicapping theory that a national title contender often comes out flat the week after its first loss. Penn State, of course, blew a big lead to Ohio State on Saturday.

“There’s definitely something to that (theory),” Salmons said. “We learned through the years that when we came up with a play but the team had just lost (its first game) to throw it aside and not bet it.”

While Salmons believes the true line on this game is close to where the Wynn posted it, the number likely moved because of the difficult spot Penn State is in – playing its second straight road game off a devastating loss.

Bogdanovich concurred, and also said Michigan State can be tough catching points.

“Michigan State is good in the dog role because they’ve got a vanilla offense and play real good defense, and they’re catching Penn State off an absolute meltdown, so you figure they’ll be flat,” he said. “Those are some the reasons I’m sure it went down.”

Simbal, though, said he and his team were anticipating a much bigger number on this Big Ten showdown.

“I was shocked at that number, and getting bet the way it got bet is very surprising,” Simbal said.

Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-13.5)

This number returned to its opener at the Wynn after being bet as high as -14 and as low as -13.

Notre Dame is in fine form and covering lots of spreads (7-1 SU and ATS), but Wake Forest has been cashing plenty of tickets, too, going 6-2 ATS on the season so far.

Salmons believe the Demon Deacons can compete in South Bend.

“I think they can because the strength of the Wake team is their defense,” he said. “They kind of ran out of gas in the Georgia Tech game (a 38-24 loss two weeks ago), but their defense held Georgia Tech down for most of that game.

“Wake can hang around (at Notre Dame),” Salmons added. “That’s a team that is definitely trending upward bigtime. That coach (Dave Clawson) has done a great job there. “

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-3)

The Wynn opened Oklahoma State -3 (-120) with adjustments to the juice in the underdog’s direction but no change to the point spread. While 3.5s have popped up around town, they haven’t lasted long.

Simbal said he has Oklahoma State rated the No. 7 team in the country and Oklahoma State No. 8.

“Only small decimal places separate these teams, so give Oklahoma State the 3 points for being at home,” Simbal said, “I think 3 makes the most sense here. To me, it’s a pick ‘em game (on a neutral site).”

Bogdanovich said he has Oklahoma rated higher, “but not by much.”

Salmons foresees a high-scoring game rendering a point spread this tight meaningless.

“It’s going to be such a high-scoring game, the points aren’t going to mean a thing,” Salmons said. “Whoever wins this game, it’s not going to be 3-point game – someone’s going to win by probably 7 to 21 points, so the (spread is) irrelevant.”

Bogdanovich also sees a high-scoring Bedlam. “First one to 45 wins,” he deadpanned.

LSU at Alabama (-21.5)

Early bettors laid Alabama -21 at the Wynn, pushing the line to -21.5, but if these numbers seem big to you, the Westgate was dealing Alabama -24 on its Games of the Year board a week ago.

“The only good thing I can say about LSU is they had a bye week, but it’s hard to see how LSU is going to score a lot of points in this game,” Salmons said.

Bogdanovich, though, sees value with LSU getting three touchdowns.

“I’d lean to the dog here,” he said. “LSU’s still got talent. For Alabama to get away from that team, it would take a perfect game, so I can see why there’s been some dog money (he saw movement on the Tigers offshore). That number looks really high.”