NCAAF Opening Line Report Week 11
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
It’s the final month of college football’s regular season, and the push for the big prize – a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff – is getting turned on its head with each passing week. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for four key Week 11 matchups, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 10 Auburn Tigers (-2)
Georgia is No. 2 in the polls, but No. 1 where it really matters – in the prestigious CFP ranking. The Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) remained on a collision course with Alabama for the SEC title by dispatching South Carolina 24-10 on Saturday, though they fell way short of cashing as 23.5-point chalk.
Auburn (7-2 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) could certainly upset Georgia’s apple cart this week. The Tigers’ two losses this season weren’t bad ones by any means – at Clemson and at Louisiana State – and they’ve won and covered on the road in their last two games. On Saturday at Texas A&M, Auburn won 42-27 as a 14.5-point favorite.
“Early bettors got some great value, as top-ranked Georgia quickly moved from small ‘dogs to 2.5-point favorites,” Mason said. “Georgia is by far the most popular bet on the entire betting board so far, with 93 percent of early bettors on the Dawgs. Even with the line move, bettors are still pounding Georgia and are counting on them to cover and beat Auburn for the sixth time in the last seven years.”
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (+1.5)
Notre Dame found itself at No. 3 in the initial CFP ranking released last Tuesday, after eye-catching victories over Southern California and North Carolina State. The Fighting Irish (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) kept rolling in Week 10, topping Wake Forest 48-37 as a 15.5-point home fave.
Miami is undefeated and trying to make its way into the CFP. The Hurricanes (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) certainly helped their cause in Week 10 by rolling over Virginia Tech 28-10 laying 2 points at home.
“Outside of Georgia-Auburn, no other game is getting as much early action as this top-10 showdown,” Mason said. “The Irish have been very generous to their loyal bettors this season, racking up a 7-2 record against the spread. The public will be counting on another Notre Dame cover – just 30 percent of the early tickets are on Miami.”
BetOnline.ag opened Notre Dame -1.5 and saw some upward movement, even getting to 4 momentarily, before dialing back to 2.5 and settling at 3 late Sunday night.
No. 9 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-8 )
If the Big 12 is to be represented in the CFP, one of these two teams will be doing said representing, and Oklahoma surely has the offensive firepower. On Saturday, the Sooners (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) hung a 62-burger on Bedlam rival Oklahoma State, holding on for a defensively challenged 62-52 victory as a 1-point road pup.
Texas Christian is also 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, and its lone loss was to Iowa State, just like Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs stubbed their collective toe in Week 9, but bounced back in Week 10 with a 24-7 home win over Texas giving 7.5 points.
“Dating back to last season, Oklahoma has been a covering machine in front of its home crowd, compiling an 8-1 record against the spread over their last 9 (home) games,” Mason said. “Despite this lopsided trend, 63 percent of early bettors hit TCU and the points. However, I believe the action will be pretty even come kickoff.”
No. 8 Washington Huskies at Stanford Cardinal (+5.5)
The Pac-12 is fading like a pair of 20-year-old jeans, with Washington – which made it to the CFP a season ago – the last best hope to reach the playoff this season. The Huskies (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) plastered Oregon 38-3 in Week 10, easily covering as a 17.5-point road chalk.
Stanford already has three losses on its resume, something even Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love can’t mask. The Cardinal (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) went to Washington State on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite and left with a 24-21 outright loss, halting a five-game SU win streak.
“The Huskies have been on a covering tear recently, going 5-1 ATS over their last six games. Stanford, on the other hand, only covered the number once in its last five games,” Mason said. “The early bettors are split 50/50 on this one, although there hasn’t been too much early action. By comparison, there are more than three times the bets on Georgia alone than Washington and Stanford combined. Despite the lack of early action, Washington quickly moved to 7-point chalk.”
College Football Opening Line Report Week 11
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Oddsmakers were nice and busy on Sunday putting together the Week 11 college football lines. At the same time, the bettors that mold the market were busy hitting those numbers. The chess match that begins on Sunday afternoon and rolls right on into Monday morning is a lot of fun to follow and it is full of important information for bettors to consider throughout the week.
Remember that these are numbers grabs. We see a lot more handicapping during the week, in terms of evaluating motivation, accounting for injury news, and more in-depth study of how the two teams match up. The moves early in the week are from guys looking to get out in front of the market and hit numbers before they move because their power ratings show a difference. Some positions are true. Some are not and guys and girls will buy back at bigger limits and have something like $2000 on one side early week, $5000 on the other side later in the week, and limit exposure. Other times, guys and girls will hit middles or massage numbers around key numbers.
All of this information should be part of your handicapping process. Whether you are one of those people hitting the initial market or somebody that plays late in the week or on game day, having an understanding of the moves we’ve seen so far and the nature of those moves holds a lot of importance.
With that, here is the College Football Opening Line Report for Week 11:
Akron at Miami of Ohio (-5) – We haven’t seen a ton of movement here, but Miami of Ohio has been the preferred side at books that opened 3.5, like Bookmaker, or 4, like BetOnline. The RedHawks are the better team per the year-to-date stats, even with the ongoing Gus Ragland injury. Many felt Ragland would play last week against Ohio. He did not. It seems like the expectation this week is that he will play, so we’ve seen some early hits on the Miami side.
Ball State at Northern Illinois (-31) – There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement on Wednesday’s slate, but we should see some throughout the day on Monday. We’ll fast forward to Thursday, where Northern Illinois has been the preferred side against Ball State. Ball State is just awful with all the injuries. Northern Illinois opened -29 and got bumped up to -31. This is going to be a fascinating spot with a total likely in the mid-40s and a spread north of 30. Ball State’s team total will probably be somewhere around seven points, so this move is particularly notable.
Washington (-7) at Stanford – There are a few 6.5s out there in the market, but the predominant number for Friday’s #Pac12AfterDark matchup is a full touchdown with varying juice. Many numbers guys believe that the switch from Keller Chryst to KJ Costello is a positive one for the Cardinal, but nobody has hopped on the Cardinal to this point. In fact, we haven’t seen any movement, which is very interesting. Washington is the best team in the Pac-12, but this number does look high on the surface. Maybe we’ll see more involvement as limits increase.
NC State (-3) at Boston College – The gauntlet part of the schedule would appear to be finished for NC State, but the market doesn’t seem to think so. Boston College has gotten all of the initial investment on this game, as both DSI and BetOnline are sitting on +3 (-115) and 5Dimes has even made the move down to 2.5 already. This number opened NC State -3.5 with reduced juice, but even the -115 on the home dog wasn’t enough to stop money from coming in. It certainly looks like the market will be below a field goal sometime Monday afternoon.
Michigan State at Ohio State (-15.5) – The Buckeyes opened a 17-point favorite for Sparty’s visit to Columbus. Ohio State perennially has trouble with Michigan State and hasn’t beaten the Spartans by this amount in Columbus in 40 years. It isn’t a surprise to see the market hitting Michigan State. From a power ratings standpoint, this number isn’t far off. But, with the Buckeyes looking at two losses and no College Football Playoff, it’s fair to wonder how they respond to giving up 55 points to Iowa. This number should keep coming down as we get closer to kickoff, but should meet resistance if it does get to 13.5.
San Jose State at Nevada (-20.5) – A 21 has popped at both DSI and BetOnline for this one, with a steady stream of Wolf Pack money early in the week. Nevada has something in quarterback Ty Gangi. San Jose State has virtually nothing going in its favor. We may see San Jose State down below UTEP in some sets of power ratings now, given how this number opened -19 and is -21 and is not really showing any signs of slowing down.
TCU at Oklahoma (-7) – Coming off one of the most exciting Bedlam battles in a long time, the Sooners have to turn around and host a really good TCU team in Norman this week. TCU bounced back from the Iowa State loss with a strong effort against Texas last weekend. This number opened -8 and is painted -7 almost across the market, with a few extremely juiced 7.5s out there. It would be a little bit of a surprise to see it push down through 7, as books probably want to stop here and just play with the vig on each side.
Virginia at Louisville (-10.5) – There are a lot of people that feel like Louisville has quit on the season. Virginia’s Jekyll-and-Hyde approach to the last few weeks does make them a hard team to evaluate, but the Cavaliers are taking on money in this one. This number opened 11.5 and is either 11 (-115) or 10.5 in most of the market. BetOnline has actually gone down to 10. Interestingly, the BetOnline opener was 10 and they adjusted to where the rest of the market had opened before coming back to that round number.
Notre Dame (-3) at Miami – This line move is not a surprise. The market was hoping for a spot to go against Miami and it seems to have found it. The Hurricanes have played a lot of close games this season and have been on the right side of variance in all of them. After a pretty complete effort, especially on defense, against Virginia Tech, Notre Dame has gone up from -2.5 to -3 at the shops that opened 2.5. Some went straight to 3 and have been happy with that decision. We’ll see a real big handle on this game, so this will be one to watch from a line movement perspective. The public likes Notre Dame and the sharp guys also prefer Notre Dame here.
Alabama (-14.5) at Mississippi State – This opening number surprised me a little bit because it is a sign that Mississippi State should be higher in my power ratings. This line would put Mississippi State up several points and on the fringes of the top 15. Maybe they are a top-15 team. Who knows. But, the market has bought up the -14s that were out there and now you can’t find one. I don’t think you’ll find another one before kickoff.
Florida Atlantic (-4.5) at Louisiana Tech – After Lane Kiffin’s Week 10 shenanigans, the usual steam that we see on FAU has been tempered a little bit. The Owls failed to cover the late number because Kiffin purposely went backwards and then had his punter run out of the end zone for a safety. He even referenced the point spread in his postgame. Once again, we’ve seen FAU get pumped up a bit. The number opened 4 and is now 4.5 in the market, with a stray 5 or two. We’ll see another wave of FAU money either today or tomorrow and then have to see where this settles in.
Iowa at Wisconsin (-12.5) – Last week was great for Iowa, but it was bad for the Big Ten as a whole. Wisconsin’s Charmin-soft schedule is going to be a real interesting discussion if the Badgers do beat Penn State/Ohio State/Michigan State in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title. The Badgers opened a 13.5-point favorite against Iowa, but the market seems to be invested in the Hawkeyes. Nathan Stanley is dropping dimes and nobody seems to be worried about a letdown spot. Wisconsin’s number looked light last week against Illinois and eventually got bet up, so we’ll see how this week goes.
Georgia (-2.5) at Auburn – This number is all over the place. Pinnacle and The Greek have already made the move to -3. Most books are holding on 2.5, though the offshore exchange Matchbook is at -2 (-125), which is effectively 2.5. I’d expect a lot of public money to hit the market on UGA, but I don’t know if sharp money will take Auburn. This will be one to watch because there’s a reasonable chance this number blows through 3 and up to 4. At that point, we’ll look for sharp buyback on the home dog.
Tennessee at Missouri (-11) – Missouri laying 11 points is a sight to see. But, that’s the current state of Tennessee football for you. Tennessee needs two wins for bowl eligibility, but I’m not sure the pack of swag is enough to get the Volunteers invested in two more weeks of practice and another game. Missouri, on the other hand, is rolling right along offensively right now. This number opened with Missouri favored by 9. Those numbers are long gone.
UTEP at North Texas (-23.5) – One-sided North Texas money has hit the board against UTEP. This is hardly a surprise, as UTEP rates as the worst team in the country in most sets of power ratings.
Old Dominion at FIU (-10) – We’ve seen Old Dominion take on a bit of investment in recent weeks, but this is not one of those weeks. The skeptics may be coming around on FIU at this point because the Panthers are bowl eligible and actually have a shot to play in the Conference USA title game if somebody can help out against FAU. It is a little bit surprising to see a team that is +5 in conference play point differential growing into a double-digit favorite, but here we are.
Arkansas at LSU (-18.5) – LSU gave a good effort against Alabama, but it’s hard to see anybody stopping that train. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina nearly beat Arkansas. It should come as no surprise that we see LSU up from -17 to as high as -19 at some shops. We’ll see what the point of resistance is on this game.
Boise State (-5.5) at Colorado State – It has not been a good look for Colorado State the last few weeks. The preseason favorite in the Mountain West really hasn’t played up to its potential and now finds itself catching 5.5 points at home against Boise State. We’ll likely see this number get to 6 and then stop, but it wouldn’t be a tremendous shocker if it kept going up.
Opening Line Report - Week 11
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Miami took care of Virginia Tech, 28-10, Saturday night, but it will take a win this week against red-hot Notre Dame for the Hurricanes to gain the respect an undefeated team expects. That goes for national pollsters, the College Football Playoff selection committee and Las Vegas bookmakers alike.
The Wynn’s John Avello, who posts the first college football lines in Vegas each week, installed Miami as a 3.5-point home underdog for Saturday night’s showdown against the Fighting Irish (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET), before sharp money on the Hurricanes prompted an adjustment to 3.
“Miami has some difficulty toward the end of the game, they can’t put teams away, and offensively, they’re not super sharp. Defensively, they’ve been playing well,“ Avello said.
Avello also poked holes in Miami’s schedule, and while he gave the team props for beating the Hokies, he noted the ‘Canes will be stepping up in class this week.
“Last week against Virginia Tech I thought was their best effort so far this year, but they’re going against a team now that’s really playing well. Notre Dame is playing like a team that deserves to be in the national championship final four,” he said.
“This is the big test for Miami. If they win this one, then I might be a believer. I am not that big of a believer right now.”
Here are a half-dozen more games on the Week 11 card that will impact the College Football Playoff picture:
Washington (-6.5) at Stanford
Underdog bettors found the Wynn’s opening price of Stanford +7.5 to their liking, taking the points and betting the line down to +7 in the first hour of wagering on Sunday. The Wynn, though, remains at the high end of the market, as most Vegas shops are dealing Washington -6.5.
Iowa (-12.5) at Wisconsin
Gamblers took Iowa +13, the opener at the Wynn, pushing the line to +12.5 on Monday against a Wisconsin team that’s similar to Miami – unbeaten, but not getting a lot of respect.
Iowa will be looking to spoil a rival’s season for the second straight week, after dismantling Ohio State by a 55-24 count Saturday.
This game presents a handicapping dilemma when it comes to the Hawkeyes – on one hand, there’s always upset potential with coach Kirk Ferentz; on the other, to repeat the effort they put forth against the Buckeyes, especially on the road, is a tall order.
“Iowa pulled a shocker this week, and they’re known for doing that," Avello said. He added, "I almost expected it. Maybe not the overall win, but I expected a real good effort at home against an Ohio State team that escaped the week before (vs. Penn State). Now you go to Wisconsin. How do you get up again? Because there’s a lot of emotion in college football.”
Avello pointed out that the last two meetings between Iowa and Wisconsin have been low scoring and close. Last year, the Badgers (-3.5) prevailed on the road, 17-9; in 2015, the Hawkeyes (+5) won in Madison, 10-6.
“You could see a game similar to that,” Avello said.
Georgia (-3) at Auburn
A week ago on the Westgate SuperBook’s Games of the Year board, Auburn was a 2.5-point favorite in this SEC clash. When the Wynn posted its opening numbers Sunday, Georgia was the 3-point chalk. That’s since been bet down to Georgia -2.5 and back up to -3 (even) at the Wynn, with most Vegas shops dealing UGA -2.5.
“They deserve to be the favorite,” Avello said of the Bulldogs, although he added the trip to Auburn will be their biggest test since winning at Notre Dame, 20-19, Sept. 9.
Auburn’s only two losses of the season have been at Clemson (14-6) and at LSU (27-23), and while the SEC is down this year, Gus Malzahn’s men have taken care of all their other business.
Florida State at Clemson (-16)
Florida State has been bet down to +16 from the Wynn’s opening line of +17.5, as gamblers ask the Seminoles to do something they haven’t done all season – cover a spread. FSU is 0-7-1 against the spread (ATS).
Alabama (-14.5) at Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 7-2, reeling off four straight wins since losing consecutive games – to Georgia and Auburn, both on the road – although the Bulldogs did struggle to beat UMass this past Saturday, 34-23.
While Miss State is in fine form, the betting public will be on Alabama, per usual, Avello anticipates. If you’re on board laying two touchdowns-plus with the Crimson Tide, you may want to get down early.
“There’s gonna be Alabama money here,” Avello said “This is gonna get bet up. They bet Alabama every week, and there’s no reason not to bet them here again. It’s not like this is some great home-field advantage where Mississippi State wins all the time.”
TCU at Oklahoma (-7)
The line for this massive Big 12 contest – the winner claims sole possession of first place – opened Oklahoma -6.5 at the Wynn and was bet up to -7.5 before settling at -7.
At CG Technology, sharp money grabbed TCU, per the book’s vice president of risk management Jason Simbal, and the line has been moved from 7.5 to 6.5.
Said Avello, “This game may settle back at 6.5 TCU, defensively, they’re a very good team.”
The most recent five matchups between the Horned Frogs and Sooners have been decided by one score or less, and Avello anticipates more of the same this time around.
“It looks like another one of those games where it could be a coin flip, could come down to the last possession,” he said.