College Football Opening Line Report Week 12
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
This is an interesting time of the year to be a handicapper. We’re looking to pick off value on soft college basketball numbers. We’re still trying to decipher the NFL market. The NBA and NHL provide nightly opportunities to bet on games. But, even with so much else going on, college football continues to be one of the primary betting markets.
Unfortunately, what we’ve been doing up until now is carrying less weight. We’re seeing smaller moves early in the week from those using their power ratings to grab numbers. We’re seeing the importance of motivational and situational betting angles driving lines later in the week. Injuries continue to be a factor. Coaching changes are thrown in the mix as well.
Looking at opening lines every week is essential. Whether you bet them or not is up to you and up to your risk profile, but it is always important to see what the early numbers grabs are and then decide if that line will come back or keep going. Most sets of power ratings are going to spit out lines that are close to what we’re seeing in the betting market, so you won’t see as many dramatic early-week moves, but there are some and we’ll cover them.
Here is the Opening Line Report for Week 12:
Eastern Michigan at Miami of Ohio (-3.5) – It doesn’t take much to move an early line, but it remains a significant development when an opener moves through a key number. That is the case here. Miami of Ohio opened a 2.5-point favorite, but has pushed to -3 with extra juice at BetOnline and Pinnacle or -3.5 at Bookmaker and BetDSI. The RedHawks are playing for bowl eligibility. The Eagles are not. This may have been a numbers grab with Gus Ragland back for Miami, but it may have simply been a numbers grab on 2.5 with the more motivated side.
Middle Tennessee (-3) at Western Kentucky – This game has not moved through the key number just yet, but the Blue Raiders are a dramatically different team with Brent Stockstill at the helm. The betting market seems to recognize that and has bet the Blue Raiders up from -2 to -3 early in the week. I would expect that we see this one climb again. Most people probably don’t realize it, but the Blue Raiders have an exceptional defense.
Georgia Tech (-6) at Duke – Here’s a line to watch as we go forward this week. Georgia Tech has gotten the early money with a small move up from 5.5 to 6, but we should see this number touch 7 at some point. Duke was a popular sharp side late last week against Army and got beat. The second straight week against the option should favor Duke, but the late money was wrong last week. Will the late money show up again this week?
NC State at Wake Forest (-1) – BetOnline actually saw some money hit Wake Forest on their $250 openers that drove the number up to 3.5, but the rest of the market opened it PK and then we saw some Wake Forest investment hit the number up to 1 or 1.5. NC State has suffered some tough losses lately, while Wake Forest’s defense has fallen off the pace. This is a high-variance game and I would bet we see sharps on both sides. It also wouldn’t surprise me if NC State closed a favorite.
Minnesota at Northwestern (-7.5) – Northwestern seems to have drawn some early sharp and public investment for this matchup with Minnesota. The Wildcats opened -6.5 at Bookmaker and are now -7.5 there and also at 5Dimes and Bovada, which are two of the more public books offshore. The Wildcats haven’t lived up to the preseason expectations in a lot of ways, but are taking on money here to blow through the key number of 7.
Texas at West Virginia (-3.5) – You’ll notice that a lot of moves at this time of the year wind up being half points or full points. We aren’t seeing many two or three-point moves off the openers. Oddsmakers are more confident in their numbers and sharp numbers grabbers are seeing smaller edges. But, they are seeing edges. This is one of them, with West Virginia up from -3 to -3.5 across the market.
Rice at Old Dominion (-9.5) – This is a fascinating line to watch. Old Dominion is not the type of team that you want to lay big numbers with. But, the Monarchs need to win out for a bowl game and Rice is one of the worst FBS teams in the country. With all the pressure on ODU, we’ll have to see if this number bumps 10 or not. All the situational and motivational angles support ODU, but most sets of power ratings would have this number right on or a little bit high. How much does motivation matter? This game will tell us.
UMass at BYU (-4) – You can’t spell BYU without BUY. Well, the BUY sign seems to be on for the Cougars again this week. After a lot of steam that drove BYU into a road favorite in Las Vegas last week, the Cougars are taking on money once again for a visit from UMass. This line move isn’t a big surprise, as BYU has started to play better and has drawn some more sharp investment over the last few weeks.
TCU (-7.5) at Texas Tech – Here’s one of the biggest movers of Week 12 and, yes, it is only a 1.5-point move. TCU is up from -6 to -7.5 for this week’s game against Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs need to win out to have a shot at getting retribution against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Texas Tech has been a tough team to rate throughout the season because the offense is still good and the defense is improved under DC David Gibbs, but there have been questions of sustainability in Lubbock all year. This line move seems to suggest that those questions continue to be asked.
Arizona State (-7) at Oregon State – Bookmaker popped a 6.5 on this game and the market appears to be siding with the Sun Devils. Oregon State saw a little bit of a bump with interim head coach Cory Hall’s promotion from defensive backs coach, but that may have worn off a little bit. Arizona State needs a sixth win for a bowl game. With the rivalry game against Arizona on deck, this is a game that Arizona State would love to have. You’ll see a lot of moves based on these motivational angles of getting to six wins.
Virginia at Miami (FL) (-19.5) – The biggest move of the week is on this game, with Miami now a 19.5-point favorite against Virginia. You would think that we’d see Virginia money here based on the spot for the Hurricanes, but it is quite the contrary. Perhaps this is a setup to get out in front of the market and come back on Virginia at 21 or 21.5. Watch out for that in a game like this. From a numbers standpoint, Miami makes sense. Situationally, Miami does not, even with a perfect record and the CFP on the horizon. Miami struggled to put away inferior teams most of the season before these two huge efforts against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.
LSU (-15.5) at Tennessee – Woof. LSU is a growing favorite, even with Butch Jones out of the picture in Knoxville. Brady Hoke is the interim head coach for this week’s visit from LSU. LSU isn’t a blow ‘em out on the road type of team, but the sentiment here must be that Tennessee has nothing left to give for this season.
Army at North Texas (-3) – This line may swing in the other direction as the week goes along. Numbers guys scooped up the 2.5s on North Texas, but this is a really bad spot for the Mean Green. With a win over UAB, North Texas has the West Division title wrapped up, no matter what happens against Rice next week. The Mean Green also has six wins. Army runs the triple-option and that is hell on defensive linemen. Seth Littrell’s team is in a no-win situation here, but, we’ve still seen a move up from 2.5 to 3.
Michigan at Wisconsin (-7.5) – Wisconsin is undefeated and the playoff pressure is mounting. This is a team that most people are skeptical of because the Badgers have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. Michigan is nothing special and has been falling in power ratings throughout the year. And, yet, Michigan is the preferred side here. This number opened 10 at Bookmaker and has come down to 7.5 with extra juice at DSI and BetOnline. We could see a 7 shortly.
Cal at Stanford (-16.5) – Stanford’s huge win over Washington was bad for the Pac-12, since the conference champion will not make it to the College Football Playoff. It appears that early-week bettors are looking for a letdown. Stanford opened a 17.5-point favorite, but this number is down as low as 16 at some shops and will probably keep dropping because there is no line that would provide resistance until 14.
NCAAF Opening Line Report
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com
"The early bettors aren’t concerned that the Wolverines covered the number just once in their last 10 meetings versus the Badgers"
Week 12 of the college football season is one of the weakest on the entire schedule, with arguably just one marquee matchup. But thanks to betting, you can always find a few noteworthy games. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
No. 18 Michigan Wolverines at No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers (-8.5)
Wisconsin continues to push toward what it hopes will be a berth in the four-team College Football Playoff, though it is not yet among the top four in those rankings. The Badgers (10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS) rumbled over upstart Iowa 38-14 as a 12.5-point home chalk in Week 11.
Michigan has no CFP hopes at all, but could certainly play a giant spoiler this week. The Wolverines (8-2 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) have won three in a row (2-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 35-10 rout of Maryland as a 14.5-point road favorite.
“So far, Michigan is the most popular bet on the entire college football betting board,” Mason said. “The early bettors aren’t concerned that the Wolverines covered the number just once in their last 10 meetings versus the Badgers, as 89 percent of bettors are taking the points. It’s down to 7.5.”
Virginia Cavaliers at No. 2 Miami Hurricanes (-18)
No one is doubting Miami’s credentials any longer. The Hurricanes (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) blew right through highly touted Notre Dame in Week 11, posting a 41-8 victory as a 3.5-point home underdog.
Virginia is just hoping the ‘Canes have some kind of letdown after such a huge win. The Cavaliers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) got out of the gate 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, but they’ve since lost three of four SU and ATS. On Saturday, Virginia went to Louisville as a 13.5-point ‘dog and fell 38-21 on Saturday.
“Miami’s trouncing of Notre Dame was the biggest winner of the college football weekend for the house,” Mason said. “With the Hurricanes’ huge win in prime time, it’s surprising that early bettors prefer UVA. Only about 44 percent of the tickets are on the ‘Canes so far.”
UCLA Bruins at No. 10 Southern California Trojans (-15)
Southern Cal was among the preseason favorites to make a run at the national title, but that’s extremely unlikely now. However, the Trojans (9-2 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) have won three in a row and scored a lot of points since getting shellacked at Notre Dame. USC topped Colorado 38-24 in Week 11, pushing as a 14-point road fave.
UCLA’s season is already up in flames, with a 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS mark. The Bruins bested Arizona State 44-37 laying 3 points at home on Saturday.
“Early bettors don’t seem too enthused with the battle for Los Angeles, as there are five times more bets on Michigan alone than both UCLA and USC combined,” Mason said. “Perhaps the action is a little slow so far (because) neither team has been generous to bettors this year. The early bet count is split 50/50.”
Navy Midshipmen at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-18.5)
Notre Dame was pretty much eliminated from the CFP in Week 11, and in downright embarrassing fashion to boot. As noted above, the Irish (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) went to Miami as a 3.5-point chalk and got boatraced 41-8.
Navy (6-3 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) won its first five games, then lost three in row before righting the ship on Saturday. The Midshipmen held off Southern Methodist 43-40 giving 1.5 points at home.
“Up until a couple of weeks ago, the public won a ton of money off of Notre Dame,” Mason said. “However, over the last two weeks, the house won big off of the Irish failing to cover versus Wake Forest and Miami. Bettors don’t seem to be so eager to bet Notre Dame, as 64 percent of the early bets are on the Midshipmen, moving them down to +17.5.”
Opening Line Report - Week 12
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Wisconsin, still fighting for respect despite its 10-0 record, opened Sunday at the Wynn as a sizable nine-point home favorite against Michigan in next Saturday’s Big Ten clash in Madison (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET), a number that drew immediate wiseguy interest on the underdog. Less than 10 minutes after opening college football lines were hung, Jim Harbaugh’s men had been bet down to +8.5, the number decreasing to +7.5 by Monday afternoon.
Michigan has become a forgotten-about club. But the Wolverines are 8-2, their two losses coming at home vs. Michigan State and at Penn State, and they’ve scored 35, 33 and 35 in their three recent consecutive wins.
Still, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons, whose shop opened Wisconsin -7.5 on Monday, said Sunday night that the opening line at the Wynn didn’t surprise him.
“Wisconsin’s been so bad throwing the ball this year. The quarterback (Alex Hornibrook) is making so many mistakes, but Michigan’s going to struggle to score against Wisconsin,” Salmons said.
Salmons encouraged handicappers to compare Iowa’s offensive performance in its 38-14 loss at Wisconsin this past Sunday to its 55-24 win vs. Ohio State the previous week. The Hawkeyes racked up 487 yards against the Buckeyes; the Badgers held them to 66 yards and five first downs, and Iowa’s two touchdowns came by way of interception returns.
For the early bettors taking the points to cash this Saturday, Michigan will have to be nearly flawless on the road, Salmons believes.
“Any mistakes Michigan makes like they did against Michigan State, they just can’t overcome it,” Salmons said. “Michigan has to play a clean game to cover that spread.”
While CG Technology opened the game Wisconsin -8, vice president of risk Jason Simbal’s personal number was -9.5.
Simbal said of the dog, “This will be their ‘let’s crush this team and kill their dream’ type of game, but I don’t see it. This is a good spot for Wisconsin.”
UCLA at USC (-15.5)
USC’s been bet up from the Wynn’s opener of -14.5 to -15.5, while multiple shops, including the Westgate, went higher at -16.
“USC’s going to score a lot of points against that defense,” Salmons said.
With a hint of exaggeration, he added, “USC should be good for 50, but with the way UCLA can score, they may backdoor and lose, 52-45.”
While the early sharp money has been on USC, the point-spread may be too large for public bettors to resist.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if people backed UCLA,” Simbal said.
Salmons continued, “That total is going to be enormous. It’s hard to believe that Jim Mora can be the coach there that long and have a defense that just gets worse every year. I mean, this defense is an absolute joke.”
Sure enough, offshore books are dealing 71 for the total.
Worst schedule ever?
After a Week 11 replete with playoff-influencing matchups, the Week 12 slate is less than compelling.
Other than Michigan-Wisconsin, here are games involving teams in the playoff mix:
Alabama hosts Mercer, a game that’s unlined so far.
There’s also no point spread yet for Clemson’s home game against The Citadel.
Oklahoma is a 35-point home favorite at one-win Kansas, not exactly a game with much betting appeal. “Nobody will touch that game, the number is going to be too crazy,” Simbal said.
Miami’s been bet at the Wynn from -17 to -19.5 at home vs. Virginia. “I think everyone will be happy to lay that,” Simbal said.
Auburn is laying 36.5 or 37 at home vs. Louisiana-Monroe.
Early action at the Wynn showed on Kentucky +22 at Georgia, moving the line to as low as 21 before a northward nudge to 21.5.
Sharps also took Navy +17.5 at Notre Dame, which has revenge in mind after losing at home to the Midshipmen last season. Navy, in fact, has covered the spread in three of last four years against its more heralded foe.
Ohio State opened -38.5 at the Wynn vs. Illinois, but is being dealt as high as -40.5 around Las Vegas.
In other words, if you’ve been invited to a wedding this fall, we hope the nuptials are this week!
“This could be the worst schedule I’ve ever seen,” Salmons said. “There’s nothing, absolutely nothing. It almost looks like an NFL schedule.”