By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
With championship week, the de facto national quarter-final round, upon us, here’s a look the early betting lines and wagering patterns for six conference title tilts, with insight from two Las Vegas bookmakers – the Wynn’s John Avello and Westgate SuperBook’s Ed Salmons:
Pac 12: Stanford vs. USC (-3, 58)
Friday, Dec. 1 - (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
South Point and CG Technology sports books both opened USC -1.5 on Sunday morning, but the line was driven in the favorite’s direction during the first few hours of wagering. As of this writing, most Vegas sports books are dealing USC -3, but bettors can still lay -2.5 (-120) at CG.
When these teams met on Sept. 9, USC covered as a four-point home favorite in a 42-24 win and dominated the game from a statistical standpoint (623 yards to 342, 28 first downs to 16).
Salmons points out the Trojans got to rest last week, while Stanford was involved in a physical game against Notre Dame, a 38-20 Cardinal win.
“Whoever made USC’s schedule was pretty smart about getting a bye week before the championship game, and Stanford not only played, but this game is Friday night, so it’s a six-day week and they’re at a distinctive scheduling disadvantage,” Salmons said.
Salmons is also wary about the health of Stanford’s star running back Bryce Love.
“He’s definitely not 100 percent healthy, it’s obvious watching him,” Salmons said.
If Stanford has an edge in this matchup, it’s coaching, according to Avello.
“I like the Stanford coach. David Shaw does a really good job with this team. He gets them ready for big games,” Avello said. “I’m not overly impressed with the coaching staff at USC.”
AAC: Memphis vs. Central Florida (-7, 85)
Saturday, Dec. 2 - (ABC, 12:00 p.m.ET)
Spectrum Stadium, Orlando
Sharp bettors took Memphis +7.5 at the Wynn, prompting Avello’s shop to join the rest of the crowd at UCF -7.
In these teams’ first meeting of the season, which was played Sept. 30 at this same stadium, UCF rolled to a 40-13 win as a 5.5-point favorite, handing Memphis its only loss of the season.
Since its loss to UCF, the Memphis offense has been putting up gaudy point totals, averaging 53.5 points per game over its last seven games.
“This total probably can’t be high enough,” said Avello, as over/unders in the 84.5 to 85.5 range were flashing on Vegas betting boards.
As for the mid-major proponents who believe undefeated UCF deserves an invitation to the College Football Playoffs, Avello and Salmons both said the Knights would be underdogs of about 17 against the Clemsons of the world.
“Central Florida plays at the level of say, somewhere between a Northwestern and Michigan State, somewhere in that range,” Salmons said.
Big 12: TCU vs. Oklahoma (-7, 63.5)
Saturday, Dec. 2 - (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)
AT&T Stadium, Arlington
While Oklahoma was as cheap as -5.5 at CG Technology, openers of -6.5 were adjusted up to -7 at the Wynn and Westgate, and Salmons sees the number getting bigger.
“Everyone is going to bet Oklahoma,” he said.
Oklahoma was just a six-point favorite when they hosted TCU in November, which may have some handicappers thinking there’s value on the 'dog at a neutral site.
But, Salmons said of the Sooners’ 38-20 win, “You’ve got to look at the result of that game. It got so bad that Oklahoma stopped trying to score in the second-half.”
Avello, though, believes this line is largely a function of perception, noting his personal rankings had Oklahoma 8th in the nation ahead of the season, and TCU 75th.
“Oklahoma figured to be there at the beginning of the year and TCU figured to have a good year but not be playing for a national championship,” Avello said. “I think this line is based more on the perception of who Oklahoma is and who TCU is.”
SEC: Georgia vs. Auburn (-2.5, 49.5)
Saturday, Dec. 2 - (CBS, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium , Atlanta
At the Wynn, the number on the SEC championship opened Auburn -2.5 (-120), was bet up to -3, and then starting moving in the other direction, settling at -2.
While Avello anticipated the action on Georgia, Salmons isn’t on board with bettors’ sentiment on the dog.
“I don’t think the 3s gonna hold up,” Avello said before the move on Georgia.
Salmons, though, was one of the few bookmakers who believed Auburn should have been the favorite in the first matchup between these teams on Nov. 11. The Tigers were -2.5 on the Westgate’s Games of the Year board two weeks before the game; they went off 2.5-point dogs and trounced to a 40-17 win. “The game played out, and I was vindicated,” Salmons said. “Auburn was the better team than Georgia that day, and I still have Auburn the much better team than Georgia. I’m shocked at how low the line is, I think it’s a one-way line.”
Avello and Salmons differ in their opinions about how impressive Auburn’s 26-14 win over Alabama was.
“I thought they played an okay game against Alabama, but Alabama made mistakes that they don’t normally make,” Avello said.
Countered Salmons, “All Auburn does is seemingly get better game after game. They demolished Alabama. I know Alabama had some hurt linebackers, but there was nothing wrong with Alabama’s offense, and Auburn stopped ‘em.”
Big Ten: Ohio State (-6, 53) vs. Wisconsin
Saturday. Dec. 2 - (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
While bettors are laying the points with Ohio State early, pushing the line from as low as -4 at CG up to -6 at most shops, both of our bookmakers see Wisconsin hanging in against a team they haven’t had much success against in recent years.
Avello noted the Badgers can put points on the board, as they’ve scored less than 24 just once all season, in a 17-9 win over Purdue. The other side of the ball, however, is where their strength lies.
“Defensively, they’ve been really good all year, they’ve really been solid,” Avello said. “There’s not one game all year that anybody ran ragged over them.”
This year’s Ohio State team, meanwhile, isn’t Urban Meyer’s best version of the program.
“I don’t think they’ve got that mojo, I really don’t,” Avello said. “Wisconsin is a team that can give them problems. I see Wisconsin in this game.”
Added Salmons, “After watching Michigan play with Ohio State, I see no reason why Wisconsin can’t play with them next week.”
ACC: Miami vs. Clemson (-9, 47)
Saturday. Dec. 2 - (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Most of the books we’ve talked to throughout this college football season, Avello and Salmons included, have not been high on Miami, even though it took until Week 13 for the Hurricanes to lose a game. It’s funny, but the bettors seem to dislike Miami even more than the oddsmakers do, as opening numbers of Miami -6.5 and -7 have been bet up to the 8.5 to 9.5 range.
Avello said bettors are laying the points based on these teams’ most recent performances – Clemson beat South Carolina 34-10 last week, and Miami lost at Pittsburgh 24-14 – but he expects wiseguys to come in later on the 'dog.
“’The line should be at 7.5,” Avello said. “I think people are going to think there’s value with the Miami team.”
Clemson was pushed to -9.5 at the Westgate by Monday, and Salmons said, “You get close to 10 and it’s a big number. Clemson is not exactly an explosive offense. They play really close to the vest.”