NCAAF Opening Line Report Week 2
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
Week 2 of the college football season features a few big contests, including a rematch of a Big 12-Big Ten battle from last season. Covers delves into the opening lines on four key games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-5.5)
Ohio State (1-0 SU and ATS), coming off a season in which it reached the College Football Playoff semifinals, was sluggish out of the gate in Week 1 at Indiana, trailing 21-20 late in the third quarter. However, the Buckeyes didn’t allow a score the rest of the way and scored the final 29 points in a 49-21 victory as a 20-point favorite Thursday.
Oklahoma (1-0 SU and ATS) didn’t have nearly that kind of trouble with nonconference foe Texas-El Paso, rumbling 56-7 Saturday as a massive 43-point home favorite. But playing in The Horseshoe won’t be nearly as comfortable, as the Sooners try to avenge a 45-24 loss to Ohio State as a 2-point home underdog in Week 3 last year.
“Everyone knows exactly what happened in this game last year, and I don’t know if anyone is expecting anything different,” Cooley said. “The Buckeyes found their offensive rhythm in the second half of their opener, and it’s easy to say the Indiana defense is comparable, if not better, than Oklahoma’s. This number will probably head north quickly.”
Cooley was spot-on, as less than an hour after Bookmaker.eu’s opening line posted Sunday evening, the Buckeyes were bet up to -7.5.
No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 5 Clemson Tigers (-6)
Defending national champion Clemson (1-0 SU and ATS) no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but it hardly mattered in its Week 1 tuneup game for this ACC-SEC clash. Kelly Bryant threw for 236 yards and a touchdown, and ran for another 77 yards and a score as Clemson crushed Kent State 56-3 laying 38 points at home Saturday.
Auburn (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) likewise had no problem with Georgia Southern in a 41-7 Saturday stomp, though it settled for a push as a 34-point home fave. Auburn and Clemson have met four times in the last seven seasons, with Clemson taking the last three SU, including a 19-13 road win giving 7.5 points last year.
“Is this the year Auburn snaps the streak? Tough to say, but one thing that seems to be certain is that we won’t see a shootout,” Cooley said. “This has been a tightly contested game over the last five years or so, and these rivalries always seem to play out like that. Pro bettors might find some value with Auburn here.”
No. 15 Georgia Bulldogs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (no line)
Georgia opened the season with a victory, but it came at a cost. Starting quarterback Jacob Eason suffered a sprained knee in the first quarter against Appalachian State on Saturday. The Bulldogs (1-0 SU and ATS) went on to win 31-10 as a 12.5-point home chalk, but Cooley held off on posting a line for Georgia-Notre Dame until it’s clear whether Eason or freshman Jake Fromm will be the starter.
Notre Dame (1-0 SU and ATS) is coming off a 49-16 rout of Temple as a 19-point favorite. The Irish are looking to put behind them a dismal 4-8 SU and ATS season.
“We’re anticipating Eason will be out for this one, but we’ll wait to hang a line just to be sure,” Cooley said. “If he’s out, the freshman will have his hands full at South Bend. That injury obviously will be built into the line, as will the public’s propensity to back Notre Dame.”
No. 14 Stanford Cardinal at No. 4 Southern California Trojans (-5.5)
Star QB Sam Darnold and Southern Cal (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) got all they could handle from Western Michigan until well into the fourth quarter Saturday. The Trojans needed two touchdowns in the span of 36 seconds – the second one on an interception return with 3:13 remaining – to pull away for a 49-31 victory as a hefty 28-point home favorite.
Stanford (1-0 SU and ATS) comes in off a week of rest, after roasting Rice 62-7 laying 29.5 points on Aug. 26. The Cardinal probably needed the break, as it was the ultimate neutral-site game, played in Sydney, Australia.
“You get the feeling that this ballyhooed USC squad is due for an early upset,” Cooley said. “USC didn’t look great against the run, and the power-run game is what the Cardinals hang their hat on. Stanford has owned this rivalry of late, and this could be another notch in the series win column.”
The Cardinal won and cashed the last three meetings with the Trojans, including a 27-10 home victory last year as a 7.5-point fave. That said, shortly after Bookmaker.eu installed USC a 5.5-point chalk Sunday night, the Trojans were bet up to 6.5.
Opening Line Report - Week 2
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Ohio State was a 2-point favorite when the Buckeyes went into Oklahoma early last season and manhandled the Sooners, 45-21. Since many college football observers believe Urban Meyer’s squad is better this year than it was last year, the number on this year’s game (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) may seem light. Sure enough, bettors immediately laid the points, pushing the spread from OSU -7 to -7.5 on Sunday at the Wynn, and to as high as -8 at other betting locales Tuesday.
“I personally made this game 8.5,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, whose shop opened 7.5 and stayed put through the first two days of wagering. “I would only bet one thing on this game. I would only bet the favorite on this one at the number it’s at now.”
But Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, isn’t so sure. He cautions bettors not to discount the revenge factor and also to consider Ohio State’s season-opening game at Indiana. “They were life-and-death to win that game through three quarters,” Salmons said of Ohio State’s 49-21 victory over the Hoosiers. “The final score was very misleading. Indiana was moving the ball up and down the field.
I’m not exactly sure what happened to them, they just started making silly turnovers.
“But if Indiana can move the ball like that, you’d think Oklahoma can, too. I can see Oklahoma making this a game. I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept this game close or even won this game.”
Salmons added, “All the motivation is toward Oklahoma because they’re the ones that got crushed (last year) and they have something to prove.”
All that said, Salmons added, “I think the line is about where it should be. I think it’s just a notch above a touchdown.”
Early two-way action at CG on this primetime tilt supports that notion.
Here are Simbal’s and Salmons’ thoughts on some other key games on Saturday’s college football card.
Auburn at Clemson (-5.5)
Clemson opened -7 at the Wynn on Sunday, but underdog money influenced the line down to 5.5, where it sits at most Las Vegas sports books as of this Tuesday writing.
Both bookmakers we spoke to this week understand why the number moved in Auburn’s direction. Salmons said Clemson was given too much respect by being installed as the touchdown favorite.
“I had this game 4.5 (based on his personal ratings) and was scratching my head saying, ‘What am I missing here’ (about the opening number)?,” Salmons said. “Clemson beat up on Kent State (56-3), who threw a grand total of five passes the whole game; they were just playing to get out of town.
“Auburn is supposed to be dramatically improved on the offensive side of the ball, so this will be their real chance here,” he added.
Said Simbal, “The opening line indicates Clemson is a field goal better than Auburn (on neutral site), which I’m not sure I agree with. So seeing the number move from 6.5 to 5.5 isn’t surprising, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it went down a little bit more.”
Clemson, as a 7.5-point road favorite, won last year’s meeting with Auburn, 19-13, outgaining the Tigers 399 yards to 262. But Auburn had the ball with a chance to take the lead on the game’s last drive.
Of course, there are also numerous key pieces missing from that Clemson team, which went on to win the national championship, including first-round NFL draft picks Deshaun Watson and Mike Williams.
“That Clemson team was better than this one, considering how many people they lost, and this Auburn team is better than that one,” Simbal said.
“If Auburn had any offense in that game last year, they would have won,” Salmons added. “Their offense was so anemic last year, but their defense has been top notch. If Clemson wins, I think it will be by a field goal, but I kind of think Auburn’s going to win the game.”
Georgia at Notre Dame (-5)
There seems to be a disagreement among the betting market about the drop in value for Georgia between quarterback Jacob Eason, who is out with a sprained ligament in his left knee, and freshman Jake Fromm, who’ll be starting for the Bulldogs on Saturday. On Tuesday, the spread of UGA’s game at South Bend ranged from Notre Dame -4.5 to -6.5.
CG opened ND -6.5, but brought the line down to -5 in one flash Tuesday, and Simbal acknowledged his shop made an initial over-adjustment to the Georgia quarterback switch.
Salmons is bullish on both clubs this season, but doesn’t know what to expect from the freshman.
“It’s a game I’m interested in watching but have zero interest in wagering on because Georgia’s got a new quarterback and I could make a case for each team,” Salmons said. “I can’t even attempt to handicap this game.”
Stanford at USC (-6.5)
While the line on this marquee Pac-12 showdown bounced between USC -7.5 and -6 through the first two days of wagering, even the high end of that range is too short, Salmons believes.
Stanford has owned USC in recent seasons, winning three meetings in a row and seven of the last nine. Still, according to Salmons, Stanford is being overrated in this spot. Had this been the first game of the season for both teams, the Trojans would be at least 10-point favorites, he said.
“(The line has been) dropped 3.5 points because USC played an atrocious game last week a 49-31 win vs Western Michigan). I mean, they were awful on both sides of the ball. They were just terrible last week, and Stanford beat Rice (62-7 two weeks ago), which is one of the worst 10 teams in the country.
“I think anything less than 7 is a good bet on USC,” Salmons proclaimed.
Simbal, meanwhile, is wary of USC.
“USC did struggle last week,” he said. “It was 35-31 with (3:49) left and then USC busted a (52-yard) touchdown run and a pick-6 to make it seem like they won a lot easier and more comfortably than they did, and Stanford looked really good in their opener.”
Stanford also has the aforementioned history on its side.
“USC always has aspirations of really great things, and they tend to lose to Stanford even in years when you think Stanford is down,” Simbal said.
Florida Atlantic at Wisconsin
Florida Atlantic is a hard group to figure. Yes, the Lane Kiffin era got off to a rough start with a 42-19 loss to Navy, but the Midshipmen’s unique offense isn’t necessarily an accurate measuring stick for a defense.
“You can practice forever against (the wishbone), but until you see it, it’s just so different, and teams that run it so well like Navy are really difficult to play with,” Salmons said.
So what are bookmakers to do with FAU?
“We’re kind of shrugging our shoulders. It’s a confusing one,” said Simbal.
Simbal said the line on the Owls’ game at Wisconsin from CG’s team of oddsmakers ranged from 26.5 to 37, so the shop landed near the middle when it hung its opening number of 31. Wisconsin -31 drew a limit-bet ($2,000 this early in the week) from a respected bettor, prompting an adjustment to -32.
Simbal, though, sees a quality in Kiffin that would make him hesitant to lay a big number against FAU.
“He’s not going to mail it in at all,” Simbal said. “It’s hard to lay this big a number. You saw it in the first game (vs. Navy) when he refused to give up the game during the rain delay even though they had no chance. That leads me as a bettor to think if Wisconsin is winning 42-0, Florida Atlantic is still going to be playing their A guys trying to score. They’re not going to give up.”
Fresno State at Alabama (-43)
You’ve heard this hear before and you’ll probably hear it again: Bookmakers have a hard time hanging a spread big enough on Alabama. This week, for instance, even wiseguys are laying the wood.
CG took sharp bets on Alabama -43 and Alabama -44, putting the book in a unenviable spot
“It’s never fun when the sharps bet Alabama, because that means we’re going against every customer,” Simbal said.
To be clear, laying this many points – even with Alabama – is not a typical wiseguy bet.
“They usually don’t bet (lines that) are that big, so it’s probably just bad opener,” Simbal said. “Maybe the number should have been higher.”
Early line moves
Here are Week 2 lines that saw at least a 2-point swing in the favorite’s direction in the first 48 hours of wagering at the Wynn.
Oklahoma State at South Alabama
Opening line: Ok State -25
Tuesday line: Ok State -28
Central Michigan at Kansas
Opening line: Kansas -2.5
Tuesday line: Kansas -5
Nebraska at Oregon
Opening line: Oregon -6.5
Tuesday line: Oregon -13.5
Eastern Michigan at Rutgers
Opening line: Rutgers -2
Tuesday line: Rutgers -4.5
Western Michigan at Michigan State
Opening line: Michigan State -5.5
Tuesday line: Michigan State -7.5
Cincinnati at Michigan
Opening line: Michigan -32
Tuesday line: Michigan -35
Louisville at North Carolina
Opening line: Louisville -5
Tuesday line: Louisville -10
UAB at Ball State
Opening line: Ball State -10.5
Tuesday line: Ball State -14
Pitt at Penn State
Opening line: Penn State -17.5
Tuesday line: Penn State -20.5
Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech
Opening line: Miss State -4
Tuesday line: Miss State -7.5
San Diego State at Arizona State
Opening line: Arizona State -1
Tuesday line: Arizona State -4.5
Boise State at Washington State
Opening line: Wash State -7.5
Tuesday line: Wash State -10
Here are Week 2 lines that saw at least a 2-point swing in the underdog’s direction in the first 48 hours of wagering at the Wynn.
New Mexico State vs. New Mexico
Opening line: New Mexico State +11.5
Tuesday line: New Mexico State +7.5
Miami (Fla.) at Arkansas State
Opening line: Arkansas State +16
Tuesday line: Arkansas State +14
TCU at Arkansas
Opening line: TCU +1
Tuesday line: TCU -3
Toledo vs. Nevada
Opening line: Nevada +11.5
Tuesday line: Nevada +9.5
Louisiana-Monroe at Florida State
Opening line: UL-Monroe +35
Tuesday line: UL-Monroe +32.5
UNLV vs. Idaho
Opening line: UNLV +9.5
Tuesday line: UNLV +6.5
Minnesota vs. Oregon State
Opening line: Oregon State +2.5
Tuesday line: Oregon State -2