Opening Line Report - Week 5
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
A pair of unbeaten Pac-12 teams meet Friday night at Martin Stadium in Pullman, Washington as USC visits Washington State (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Trojans opened -5.5 on Sunday at the Wynn Las Vegas, a number that drew immediate action on the home underdog. By Monday, the Wynn was dealing USC -4, and other shops, including the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and CG Technology, hung -3.5 as their original numbers.
Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons understands the early move on the Cougars, a team he was high on coming into the season.
“This game seems to be set up for Washington State,” Salmons said. “For USC, it’s back-to-back road games (the Trojans won at Cal on Saturday, 30-20), and it’s a short week, and USC is very banged up on the defensive side of the ball. It’s a game Washington State has to win, and I’d be shocked if they didn’t win.
“It’s really a good spot (for Washington State), and they’re a solid team and USC was really fortunate last week and they were really fortunate against Texas (in a 27-24 win two weeks ago).”
Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, agrees USC hasn’t been all that impressive, but victories over Western Michigan, Stanford, Texas and Cal make for a solid early-season resume.
“Every team that they’ve faced is probably going to a bowl game,” Simbal said.
He added that while the wiseguys are on Washington State early, the public will come late with money on the chalk.
”I think we’ll still see the majority of the action on USC in this game, because considering the proximities, they’re kind of the hometown college team here,” Simbal said. ‘We’ll probably need the underdog in this one.”
Here’s a quick look at three key Saturday games:
Georgia (-7.5) at Tennessee
The Wynn opened Georgia -6.5, a price gamblers found to their liking, as the book adjusted to -8 in one flash in a matter of minutes. On Monday, 24 hours after the Wynn posted Vegas’ first college football lines, there was an even mix of 7.5s and 8s being dealt around town.
The road team laying more touchdown in this SEC rivalry game feels like a tall order, as five straight games in this series have been decided by one score.
Salmons’ personal ratings make Georgia, which is coming off a 31-3 whitewashing of Mississippi State, a touchdown favorite in this spot.
“Tennessee struggled to beat a crappy UMass team, but you don’t know if they were looking ahead or whatever,” he said. “I’m not quite understanding Tennessee anymore. Go back to that Georgia Tech game (a 42-41 win in overtime by the Vols in Week 1). Georgia Tech really deserved to win that game. They were winning the whole way and Tennessee wound up coming back at the end. Tennessee was fortunate against Florida to come back (two weeks ago). They were down a bunch of points and came back before they gave up the Hail Mary at the end.”
Both Salmons and Simbal believe the public will back Georgia on the road this week.
“I imagine Tennessee is going to be one of the bigger decisions for us based on the way Georgia has looked,” Simbal said.
“I think 7’s a solid number,” Salmons said, “but I wouldn’t be surprised if the public bet it up.”
Mississippi State at Auburn (-9.5)
For the third straight week, Mississippi State is priced as a substantial underdog against a conference opponent. And their Jekyll-and-Hyde act over the past two weeks doesn’t give bettors much help in deciding whether to take those points or lay them. The Bulldogs followed their 37-7 win at LSU two weeks ago with the aforementioned dud in Athens.
Early sharp money, though, did back Miss State at the Wynn’s opening line of +10.5, as the spread sits at 9.5 across town Monday night.
Miss State was the rare underdog backed by casual bettors on Saturday, according to Simbal, which helped Vegas books to their hugely profitable weekend that we’re sure you’ve heard about by now.
“This weekend was such a good one that even the favorites that covered were the favorites we needed, and the biggest example of that was Georgia because everybody was in love with Mississippi State coming off the big LSU game,” Simbal said.
As for Auburn, Miss State provides the Tigers’ biggest test since their 14-6 loss to Clemson in Week 2.
“It will be interesting to see how Auburn does against the first real team they’ve played since the Clemson loss, when they weren’t able to do anything on offense,” said Simbal. “The one thing you can gather is their defense is legit because Clemson’s been able to go up and down the field against pretty much everybody except them.”
Still, Simbal said, “I’m not sold on Auburn, but you know what you get with Mississippi State, which is a steady team, and as long as they don’t have any turnovers, they’re at least going to hang around. I would lean toward the underdog in this one, but thankfully, I don’t have to bet to make money.”
Clemson (-7) at Virginia Tech
Clemson was bet from -6.5 to as high as -8 at the Wynn, but the line settled back to -7.5 at that joint and to -7 at most others.
CG opened -7.5, the high end of the market, but didn’t draw any wiseguy money with that number.
“It hasn’t come yet,” Simbal said when we spoke Monday evening, about five hours after his book opened wagering. “You figure with a lot of 7s out there and a few 7.5s, if the sharper players wanted to take 7.5, they’d do it. So it tells us one of two things: Either Virginia Tech is not the side, but more so, they think this number is going to go only one way, so why take it at 7.5 when they can take it later at 8.”
Salmons, meanwhile, agreed with the notion that a road game at Virginia Tech may be Clemson’s stiffest test of the season so far and said that if he was on our side of the counter, he’d be leaning toward the dog.
“At 7, I’d bet Virginia Tech. I’d definitely take 7,” Salmons said. “I was thinking this game would be anywhere between 3.5 and 6.5. …
“Virginia Tech has a young quarterback, but so does Clemson. Everything went right for Clemson against Louisville. I give Virginia Tech a good chance in this game. I think they’ll keep it close and have a shot to win.”
Who the sharps are on early
According to Simbal, early sharp money at CG came in on:
Navy -5 vs. Tulsa, moving the line to -6
East Carolina +24 vs. South Florida, with a move to 23.5
Akron -3 vs. Bowling Green, prompting an adjustment to -3 (-120)
Kentucky -13.5 and -14 vs. East Michigan, the line moving north to -14.5
NCAAF Opening Line Report
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
Conference play is in full swing for Week 5 of the college football season. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for a few noteworthy matchups, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
No. 5 Southern California Trojans at No. 18 Washington State Cougars (+6)
Two unbeatens in the Pac-12 kick off the weekend a day early, with a 10:30 p.m. ET Friday night clash. Southern Cal is 4-0 SU, but hasn’t been particularly impressive in getting there, save for its solid win over Stanford in Week 2. In Week 4, the Trojans (1-3 ATS) traveled to California, where they trailed early and were still tied at 13 in the fourth quarter before pulling away for a 30-20 victory as a 16.5-point favorite.
Washington State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has put up 45 points or more in three of four games. The Cougars rumbled over Nevada 45-7 as a hefty 28.5-point chalk this past Saturday.
“With a 1-3 record against the spread, the public seems to be fading USC,” Mason said. “Not only did the house need the Trojans against Cal this past Saturday, but 69 percent of the early bettors are on Washington State this week, quickly moving the Cougars from +6 to +4.5. Within the first few hours after the openers hit the board, there were more bets on Washington State than any other team.”
No. 2 Clemson Tigers at No. 13 Virginia Tech Hokies (+7)
The Atlantic Coast Conference will also have a pair of perfect teams in prime time, for an 8 p.m. ET Saturday night contest. Defending national champion Clemson kept right on rolling in Week 4, routing Boston College 34-7 but falling short as a 33.5-point fave, the first pointspread setback of the year for the Tigers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).
Clemson already has big wins over Auburn and Louisville, in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively.
VaTech sports the same 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS record, steamrolling three lightweights over the past three weeks after a solid opening neutral-site win over West Virginia. The Hokies dumped Old Dominion 38-0 laying 28.5 points in Week 4.
“With this top-20 matchup going down under the nationally televised prime-time lights, it’s safe to say this game will get more volume than any other game on the college football betting board,” Mason said. “A few respected bettors took the 7 real quick, moving the Hokies to +6.5. However, it’s looking like we will be Tech fans Saturday night, as 62 percent of early bettors are backing Clemson.”
No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 16 Auburn Tigers (-9)
Mississippi State was the upstart of the first three weeks, which included a stunning home blowout of Louisiana State in Week 3. But the Bulldogs (3-1 SU and ATS) got a reality check Saturday at Georgia, where they were dealt a 31-3 bashing as a 2.5-point pup.
Auburn (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) seemed to get back in gear this past weekend, blasting Missouri 51-14 giving 18.5 points on the road. That win came after a very lackluster 24-10 win over Mercer as a massive 40-point favorite, a game that was perhaps a hangover from the Tigers’ 14-6 loss at Clemson as a 6-point ‘dog in Week 2.
“A month into the season, Auburn finally covered their first game of the season this past weekend, while Mississippi State failed to cover for the first time,” Mason said. “Early bettors are pretty split in this SEC showdown, with 58 percent of the public on the Tigers.”
The Bulldogs and Tigers kick off at 6 p.m. ET Saturday.
No. 7 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (+14.5)
Much like Mississippi State, Oklahoma State also got a huge dose of reality in Week 4. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) were averaging 54 points per game, but fell way short of that in a 44-31 upset loss as a 9-point home chalk against Texas Christian.
Texas Tech is out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, and in Week 4 hit the road for the first time, with great success. The Red Raiders went to Houston as a 7-point underdog and left with a 27-24 outright victory.
“Both teams have been generous to bettors this season,” Mason said. “Oklahoma State’s lone noncover was against TCU, which was the biggest college football winner of the weekend for BetOnline. After opening as 14.5-point dogs, Texas Tech immediately got bet down to +11.5.”
It’s another prime-time matchup, at 8 p.m. ET Saturday.
College Football Week 5 Odds Betting Line Moves That Matter
Bangthebook.com
FIU/Charlotte: The Panthers opened -10 at Bookmaker (CRIS) and almost immediately shot up to -13, but then as we’ve talked about, the people that play strictly numbers bought the -13 back to -12.5. To be honest I was surprised FIU didn’t open at -13 or so to begin with, mainly due to the fact that Charlotte is a really bad football team. They lost to NC A & T and lost at home to Georgia State 28-0, and GSU just shouldn’t beat anyone by four scores.
Having played such weak competition, Charlotte is still averaging only 240 yards of total offense this season, and allowing 418 yard per game. With that in mind we know FIU is certainly not a juggernaut, but there’s one thing we know for sure and that’s the fact that SOMEBODY saw the same thing(s) because they bought FIU early and often. Of all the games on the board, you have to ask “why that one.” The flip side of this is that because these teams are indeed borderline FBS teams, anything can and does usually happen. However, on paper, this is FIU’s game to lose.
Because of the unpredictability of these teams I’d expect this line to vacillate as the sharps will buy anything at -13 or better, and my guess is it closes pretty close to where it is now. The other thing to keep in mind, and we’ve discussed this before, is that these virgin lines take a lot less money to move them than it will later in the betting cycle, meaning the TRUE position may not have been taken yet!
Clemson/V-Tech: Here’s a game people will want to watch, and of course if we can watch is people are going to want to bet on it! It’s the Prime Time Saturday night game! Clemson opened -5.5 at Bookmaker, they shop the generally puts out the first “high limit” line. BetOnline almost always has the FIRST line out, and if you’ve done your homework and are ready, you can find some great value.
After opening at -5.5 on Sunday night, the Tigers shot up to -6.5 fairly quickly. Then, on Monday morning they went as high as -9! The telling thing there is that bettors were buying right through the key # of -7. It’s come back some, but +7.5 on V-Tech is still pretty easy to find.
Clemson beat Auburn at home, and I am not nearly as high o Auburn as most, then of course they manhandled Louisville. To be honest, I’m not sold on Louisville after watching that game – Clemson was simply that much BIGGER than the Cardinal, who seem to have one way to win, and that’s if Jackson plays well. With that in mind I will try to find a way to back the Hokies with the generous points, at home, in Prime Time. Clemson beat the Hokies 42-35 last year at Death Valley, so in simply terms (yes, I know Clemson’s defense is elite) I think Clemson had to have slipped SOME without Watson, and V-Tech is a better team this year.
The Hokies haven’t been really tested yet other than the opener against West Virginia, but looking at their schedule they’ve got a real chance to be undefeated when the travel to Miami in November if they can pull this one off. Clemson is clearly the very public team, and I’ expect this line to stay where it’s at for a while, but I will be somewhat surprised if there aren’t people laying in wait to buy V-Tech +7 or more as we get closer to Saturday.
Colorado State/Hawaii: Go ahead and ask yourself why I picked this game when there are many marquee games. Wait, I’ll tell you. Because it’s the LAST game on the board and I can assure you that people will bet it for that very reason, either because they’re up late, or more likely because they want to bail out. Well, the time for bailing is not Saturday night, it’s now, because CSU opened -9 and is actually down to -6.5 at Bookmaker. It’s like the FIU game – people are sitting around on a Monday saying “let’s bet on Hawaii Saturday night” unless they’ve done the work and have a plan. Don’t be “that guy.”
Georgia/Tennessee: This one looks to be an obvious mismatch of talent, coaching, and teams going in opposite directions. It probably is, but if you were on the ball you could have had the Dawgs -6.5, and now it’s over the magic “touchdown” number and I don’t see it coming back anytime soon.
I’d love to make a case for the Vols, even after they messed around against UMass. Messing around was somewhat predictable given the game in their sights, but only winning 17-13 at home was not predictable. I go back to how easy it was for G-Tech to run all over them, and I go back to how elite UGA’s defense is, and even a significant regression to the mean for UT and a slight “crack” in the Dawgs game might not be enough to keep it close. The ONLY thing that gives me pause is that there is no way Georgia can have the intensity in Knoxville that they had at home against Mississippi State.
With that in mind, I don’t see this line coming back below -7 anytime soon, and remember that the longer into the cycle we get, the more money a move like that will take. So, the only way I get to UT was is it looked like it might come off of -7 later on and I threw a dollar at it for good measure, of course at a lesser number.
NCAA Football Line Watch
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
Spread to bet now:
Indiana +17.5 at Penn State
The Hoosiers have bounced back nicely since losing their season opener versus Ohio State, in which Indiana led in the third quarter before falling apart down the stretch. Since that game, the Hoosiers have won at Virginia 34-17, and beat Georgia Southern 52-17 in a game that saw Indiana rack up 282 yards on the ground. The win at UVA is becoming more impressive after Virginia's win at Boise State last Friday night.
Penn State is in a potential letdown spot with this lone home game against Indiana sandwiched between bigger road tilts at Iowa and Northwestern. The Nittany Lions expended a lot of energy in their narrow 21-19 win over the Hawkeyes last week and could struggle to find motivation this week, especially after going 3-0 SU against Indiana the past three years.
Spread to wait on:
Coastal Carolina +11/+9.5 at UL Monroe
This line has already dropped from +11 to +9.5 early this week. Coastal Carolina is looking for their second win of the season as they travel to Louisiana Monroe. It's been a long week for the Chanticleers after getting blasted by Western Illinois this past Saturday. Coastal Carolina was competitive in their other two games this season, winning 38-28 versus Massachusetts and losing 23-30 at UAB. The Chanticleers want to grind out victories with their rushing attack that is averaging 239 yards per game on the ground and 5.5 yards per carry this year (versus opponents that allow just 176 yards and 4.5 ypr).
This week is probably a letdown spot for the Warhawks after a huge 56-50 overtime victory on the road against rival Louisiana Lafayette. UL Monroe is getting gashed on the ground this year, allowing 278 rushing yards per game on 6.2 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 5.1 ypr). The Warhawks are only 3-13 SU the past two seasons and they have just three straight-up victories the last three seasons against teams with a losing record.
Total to watch:
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech 81
This may seem like a high total, but for good reason as these two teams combined for 89 points (45-44) last season and 123 points (70-53) two years ago. Oklahoma State was "held" to just 31 points which was their lowest offensive output of the season last week versus TCU. The Cowboys are still averaging 48.2 points and 580 total yards per game on 8.1 yards per play this year (versus opponents that allow just 6.8 yppl). OSU has gone Over the total in 14 of their last 19 games as a favorite.
Texas Tech's offense has put up over 50 points twice at home already this season. They have thrown the ball at least 35 times or more in all three contests, while averaging 10.1 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow 8.9 ypp). The Red Raiders have gone Over the total in eight of their last 10 games against a winning opponent. This week's matchup presents a good opportunity for the nation to get to know quarterback Nic Shimonek.