Opening Line Report: Week 9
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
Penn State certainly looks like the real deal in college football, but will get a chance to really prove it in Week 9. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for a few games, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
No. 2 Penn State at No. 6 Ohio State (-7)
Penn State was expected to get a test in Week 8, but it seemed like the Nittany Lions (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) knew all the questions in advance and certainly had all the answers. Saquon Barkley and Co. steamrolled Michigan 42-13 as a 7.5-point home favorite Saturday.
Ohio State (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) has won five in a row, all in huge blowout fashion, since an upset home loss to Oklahoma in Week 2. The Buckeyes had a bye in Week 8, following a 56-14 bashing of Nebraska as a 23.5-point road chalk.
“No surprise that this game is getting the most early action, by far,” Mason said. “Ohio State has been slaughtering everyone in its path recently, covering its last three games with a 48.7 average margin of victory. Penn State has been very generous to bettors all season long. Sixty-nine percent of early bettors are counting on yet another Penn State cover.”
The Buckeyes opened -7, but all that Nittany Lions early action quickly dropped the number to 5.5.
No. 15 North Carolina State at No. 10 Notre Dame (-7)
Notre Dame is absolutely in the picture for the four-team College Football Playoff, provided it keeps on playing like it did in Week 8. The Fighting Irish (6-1 SU and ATS) entered Saturday’s home game as 4-point favorites against longtime rival Southern Cal and exited with a 49-14 blowout victory.
North Carolina State (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) is no slouch either, peeling off six consecutive SU wins since losing its opener to South Carolina. The Wolfpack are coming off a bye week, after rolling past Pittsburgh 35-17 giving 11.5 points on the road in Week 7.
“Notre Dame’s beatdown of USC was one of the biggest winners of the weekend for the public,” Mason said. “With the easy cover over the Trojans, the Irish have ripped off five straight covers. However, 59 percent of early bettors are on North Carolina State, although I believe we will actually need the Wolfpack by kickoff.”
After the initial Wolfpack push, some Notre Dame money showed by early Sunday evening, taking the opening line of -7 up to 8.5 before it peeled back to 7.5 at BetOnline.
No. 3 Georgia vs. Florida (+13)
Unbeaten Georgia looks to stay on track for a berth in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) had a bye in Week 8, after dismantling Missouri 53-28 laying a hefty 28.5 points on the road in Week 7.
Florida is on a two-game skid and finds itself at .500 halfway through the season. The Gators (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) are also coming off a bye, after back-to-back tight home losses to Louisiana State – 17-16 as a 1.5-point ‘dog – and Texas A&M – 19-17 as a 3-point fave.
“Early bettors got a bargain jumping on Georgia -13, before the number moved across 14 to -14.5,” Mason said. “Even though Florida covered its last four games versus Georgia, 76 percent of bettors for the ‘World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party’ are on the Bulldogs minus the points.”
No. 11 Oklahoma State at No. 23 West Virginia (+7)
Oklahoma State has won three in a row SU as it tries to put its season back together following a Week 4 home loss to still-undefeated Texas Christian. In Week 8, the Cowboys (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) barely survived at Texas, winning 13-10 in overtime while falling short as 7-point favorites.
West Virginia (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) has won five of its last six, with the only setback in that stretch also against TCU. However, the Mountaineers did not look good this past weekend in the fourth quarter against hapless Baylor. West Virginia held a 38-13 lead as a 10.5-point road chalk, but got outscored 23-0 in the final frame, hanging on for a 38-36 victory.
“The public profited off of Oklahoma State big time to start the season,” Mason said, alluding to the Cowboys’ 3-0 SU and ATS start. “Since then, the Cowboys have failed to cover in three of their last four games. Despite that recent cold streak, only 37 percent of early bettors are on West Virginia.”
BetOnline opened the Pokes -7, with early action bouncing the line down to 6, then up to 8 before hitting 7.5 Sunday evening.
Opening Line Report - Week 9
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Penn State at Ohio State
The Big Ten game of the year, opened Ohio State -6.5 on Sunday at the Wynn, where it was bet up -7 within minutes, before making its way back down the ladder past its original number to -6.
While the line was as cheap as -5 at Stations on Sunday, it settled at -6 across town by Monday afternoon.
As far as Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons is concerned, anything less than a touchdown makes for a nice price on the Buckeyes.
“If this game was lined last week, before Penn State beat Michigan (42-13 on Saturday), it would have been a little more than 7, so I think you’re getting value with Ohio State laying 6. I think they’re just a little bit better than Penn State and they had the bye week.”
Penn State’s win over the Wolverines improved its record to 7-0 and vaulted he Nittany Lions to No. 2 in the national rankings. But Ohio State’s current form may be even more impressive. Since they lost to Oklahoma in Week 2, none of the Buckeyes’ next five opponents have come close to them, and they’ve put up 50-plus points against their last four.
N.C. State at Notre Dame (-7.5)
Speaking of excellent current form, both N.C. State and Notre Dame are exhibiting plenty of that. The Wolfpack haven’t lost since opening week against South Carolina, and the Irish have won and covered five in row since their Week 2 loss to Georgia.
The Wynn opened Notre Dame -7 and was bet as high as -8, before settling at -7.5.
Salmons has been high on both teams all year, but as the season has gone on, he’s become less impressed with N.C. State’s resume.
“If you asked me (earlier in the season if N.C. State could win in South Bend) I may have said yes, but now I say no,” he said, throwing cold water on some of the Wolfpack’s successes.
“It’s obvious that Florida State is nowhere near the team that we thought they were. The more (the Seminoles) play, the less impressive that N.C. State win over Florida State looks,” Salmons said. “And beating Louisville at the time looked like a really good win, but Louisville seems way down from where they had been last year.”
Georgia vs. Florida
Georgia’s quest to remain unbeaten figures to be met with little resistance at the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, at least based on the betting market, which has made the Bulldogs at two-touchdown favorite.
While Florida has beaten Georgia three straight seasons, Salmons believes the Gators will have to play uncharacteristically well on offense to keep Saturday’s game close.
“They’re going to have to score some points,” Salmons said. “Historically, they’ve always kept it close against Georgia, they usually do well.”
But he lamented, “It’s shocking how bad Florida has become. Their offense has never gotten better since (Will) Muschamp (took over for Urban Meyer in 2011). .... It just gets worse and worse and worse (under Jim McElwain).
Oklahoma State (-7.5) at West Virginia
Sharps don’t seem concerned about what appears to be a particularly difficult spot for Oklahoma State, as they bet the Wynn’s opening line of -6 all the way up to -7.5.
How tough a spot is this for the Cowboys?
Well, after winning in overtime at Texas, they have to travel east for their second straight road game, and next week, they get Oklahoma.
Said Salmons, “Teams that give Oklahoma State the most trouble are teams that can score a bunch of points. Texas struggled on offense last week, but I’m pretty sure West Virginia will score a bunch of points in this game.
It’s just a question of whether the West Virginia defense can get enough stops. With the crowd and all that, you would think they’ll get some turnover and a couple stops. With that and their defense, I think they can win.”
TCU (-6) at Iowa State
Early bettors took Iowa State +6.5 at the Wynn, but according to Salmons, the number would have been much bigger had this game been played a few weeks ago. Salmons said the quarterback switch from Jacob Park to Kyle Kempt has been massive for the Cyclones.
“They’ve improved their play by about 7 points to their number” since Kempt’s first start on Oct. 7 at Oklahoma, a 38-31 Iowa State win, Salmons said.
“If this spread was made a few weeks ago, it would have been easily double digits,” Salmons said. “It’s such a low spread, but I certainly wouldn’t want to bet TCU because that environment is going to be amazing for Iowa State at home. It’s the biggest game in probably 10 years there.”