College Football Streakers
By: Brian Graham
As we enter the heart of Week 6 of the college football season, there are currently 18 FBS teams that are unbeaten. Eleven of these teams are 5-0, and seven others have won four straight to start the season. StatFox tallied all FBS game logs from 2005 to 2009 and came up with some interesting trends concerning how streaking teams fare in their next game.
SU 5-GAME WIN STREAK (2005 to 2009)
Overall ATS: 46% (70-82)
At Home ATS: 38% (28-45)
Road/Neutral ATS: 53% (42-37)
Favorite/Pick ATS: 46% (50-58)
Underdog ATS: 45% (20-24)
The numbers that jumped out at us here are home and away, with home teams winning less than 40% ATS, mostly due to inflated spreads. With Oklahoma on a bye, this week sees five 5-0 SU teams with ATS odds working against them.
Nevada -39.5 vs. San Jose St.
TCU -34 vs. Wyoming
Ohio St. -22 vs. Indiana
Northwestern -10.5 vs. Purdue
Michigan -4 vs. Michigan St.
On the flip side, road teams have fared pretty well in this scenario (53%), not yet getting their due respect from oddsmakers. The five road teams riding five-game SU win streaks are:
Oregon -36 at Washington St.
Alabama -6.5 at South Carolina
Auburn -6 at Kentucky
LSU +7 at Florida
Michigan St. +4 at Michigan
SU 4-GAME WIN STREAK (2005 to 2009)
Overall ATS: 50% (127-127)
At Home ATS: 47% (48-55)
Road/Neutral ATS: 52% (79-72)
Favorite/Pick ATS: 48% (86-94)
Underdog ATS: 55% (41-33)
None of these numbers deviate much from 50%, but there is a 7-percent spread between Favorites and Underdogs. Kansas State is the only 4-0 SU underdog this week, getting 11.5 points at home to Nebraska. The six 4-0 SU favorites are:
Boise St. -38.5 vs. Toledo
Oklahoma St. -24 at La-Lafayette
Missouri -13 vs. Colorado
Nebraska -11.5 at Kansas St.
Arizona -8 vs. Oregon St.
Utah -6 at Iowa St.
In terms of ATS records, there are zero BCS teams undefeated ATS. The best ATS records are:
Alabama 4-1
Ohio State 4-1
Oregon 4-1
As you probably noticed, these are the top-3 ranked teams in the country in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll.
But in terms of current ATS streaks, only two BCS teams are riding three-game ATS win streaks -- Florida State and Virginia Tech. History over the past five seasons shows less than 50 percent odds for overall, home, away, favorites and underdogs when breaking down these teams with three-game ATS win streaks. The lowest of these percentages is Underdogs (44%, 66-83), which is the situation Florida State (+6.5) is in this week at Miami. Virginia Tech has won three straight (SU and ATS) since losing to James Madison, outscoring the three opponents 109 to 57. The Hokies are a 22-point favorite over Central Michigan.
There are still three winless ATS teams among BCS schools: Rutgers (0-4), Purdue (0-3-1) and Boston College (0-3, 1 No Line). The only other BCS team with at least three straight ATS losses is Georgia, which has dropped four straight games (both SU and ATS). There are some note-worthy trends to consider when playing On (or Against) these four schools.
Teams on a four-game ATS losing skid only have a 45% success rate in their next game, and just 44% (27-34) when that next game is at home. Rutgers (+6 vs. Connecticut) and Georgia (-11.5 vs. Tennessee) both fall into this 44% category.
The outlook is much brighter for teams on a three-game ATS losing skid (51% overall), especially on the road (57%, 100-74). This number climbs even higher (63%, 64-37) for road underdogs of less than 20 points. Both Purdue (+10.5 at Northwestern) and Boston College (+9.5 at NC State) have the 63% success rate in their favor.