College football top 25 cheat sheet: Week 12
By MATT SEVERANCE
Mississippi State at Alabama (-22.5)
Why Bulldogs cover: They have beaten the Tide the past three seasons and Bama hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in its last three meetings with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State had last week off and MSU has won three of its four games against ranked teams after open dates under coach Selvester Croom. The Dogs defeated No. 20 Florida in 2004, No. 21 Alabama in 2007 and No. 13 Vanderbilt this season.
Why Crimson Tide cover: Nick Saban already has warned his players not to look past this game and he has the past results to emphasize his point. The Bulldogs rank only 11th in the SEC in rushing defense. MSU has been outscored 128-48 while going 0-4 on the road this season.
Total (41): The under is 7-2 in past nine meetings.
Texas at Kansas (+13)
Why Longhorns cover: They face a sinking KU team that has lost three of four games, including last week’s 45-35 setback at Nebraska, the Jayhawks’ first loss to an unranked team in nearly two years. The KU defense has given up at least 45 points in three of the past four games and is allowing 520 total yards per game in that stretch.
Why Jayhawks cover: Perhaps unfamiliarity will help KU - Texas hasn’t seen the Jayhawks since 2005. The Jayhawks likely must win to have a shot at the Big 12 North title. If they lose and Missouri wins, the Tigers clinch. Todd Reesing could have a big day against an iffy Texas secondary.
Total (68): The over is 8-1 in Texas’ last nine Big 12 games.
South Carolina at Florida (-22.5)
Why Gamecocks cover: Steve Spurrier will keep his former school on its heels defensively with his quarterback rotation of Stephen Garcia and Chris Smelley. South Carolina ranks third in Division I in total defense (256.5 yards per game) and 10th in scoring defense (15.6 ppg).
Why Gators cover: The Gators have won two straight in the series and 15 of 16 meetings since South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992. Florida has won all 11 games against the Gamecocks in Gainesville. UF has won five in a row this year, none by fewer than 28 points.
Total (50.5): The over is 13-3 in UF’s past 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.
USC at Stanford (+23)
Why Trojans cover: Holy revenge, Batman! USC will want to lay the wood to the team that shocked it last year as a 38-point favorite, ending the Trojans’ conference-record 35-game winning streak at home. USC has outscored its last six opponents 231-23.
Why Cardinal cover: They are 5-0 ATS in their past five home games and are unbeaten at home this season – which includes a win over the Oregon State team that punked USC. Stanford’s last three losses have been by a TD or less.
Total (48): The over is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings.
Utah at San Diego State (+30)
Why Utes cover: They have outscored SDSU 61-14 in winning the past two meetings. San Diego State has allowed conference highs in both yards (466.0) - the ninth-most in the nation - and points (36.2). Utah is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
Why Aztecs cover: The Utes could easily be looking ahead to next Saturday’s big tilt with rival BYU. SDSU is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 home games. The Aztecs are due to upset a ranked team – it hasn’t happened in 12 years.
Total (54): The over is 5-1 in SDSU’s past six home games and 4-1 in Utah’s last five road games.
Indiana at Penn St. (-35)
Why Hoosiers cover: Has the Big Ten figured out that Penn State Spread HD offense? The Nittany Lions have only totaled 36 points in the past two games. Indiana no doubt will get a down PSU team after last week’s upset at Iowa.
Why Nittany Lions cover: Indiana is porous and enters off its third 30-point loss in conference play. The Hoosiers even have lost to two MAC teams this year. IU is averaging 16.5 points in Big Ten games but allows an average of 38.7. It has covered just once this season.
Total (57): The under is 10-3-1 in PSU’s last 14 games following a loss.
Boise State at Idaho (+36.5)
Why Broncos cover: They have outscored conference opponents 196-40 this season and allowed no more than 16 points in any of those games. The Idaho defense is allowing a WAC-worst 478 yards and 42 ppg.
Why Vandals cover: Well, it is a rivalry game (Potato Bowl? Spud Showdown?). Boise tends to make mental mistakes: It has committed at least 11 penalties in three straight games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.
Total (59.5): The over is 14-6 in Boise’s last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.
Georgia at Auburn (+8.5)
Why Bulldogs cover: Auburn’s offense is lousy, having scored just four TDs in the past three SEC games. Auburn ranks 100th nationally in total offense and 102nd in scoring. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their past eight games.
Why Tigers cover: Georgia hasn’t been great against the number, going 1-5 ATS in the past six. Auburn also is playing for a bowl and likely to save Tommy Tuberville’s job. The Georgia defense isn’t great, having surrendered 33 touchdowns to opposing offenses.
Total (47): The under is 11-4 in Auburn’s past 15 SEC games.
Ohio State at Illinois (+9.5)
Why Buckeyes cover: Penn State’s loss last week suddenly gives the Buckeyes hope of winning the Big Ten again. Ohio State is No. 1 in the Big Ten in total defense (285 ypg) and 14-4 ATS in its past 18 road games. The Buckeyes have won six in a row in Champaign and 14 in a row in Big Ten road games.
Why Illini cover: They are 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings and average a Big Ten-best 438 yards on offense. Juice Williams torched OSU for four TDs in last year’s upset in Columbus and this year he leads the Big Ten with 2,769 yards passing and a 141.9 passer rating.
Total (47): The over is 6-2-1 in the Illini’s past nine Big Ten games.
Missouri at Iowa State (+27.5)
Why Tigers cover: They likely will clinch the Big 12 North with a victory. ISU has lost eight straight games. Mizzou is fourth in Division I passing (351.5 yards per game), fourth in scoring (45.1 points per game) and sixth in total offense (513.8).
Why Cyclones cover: Maybe if Chase Daniel gets hurt, since ISU ranks No. 115 in pass defense. The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.
Total (64): The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Oklahoma State at Colorado (+16.5)
Why Cowboys cover: Colorado has lost its past three conference games against ranked teams by a margin of 126-28. OSU is 9-1 ATS this season. The Buffs are 0-7 ATS in their past seven.
Why Buffaloes cover: OSU is likely to suffer a bit of a letdown after last week’s loss to Texas Tech ended its Big 12 title hopes and the Cowboys are 2-2 on the road this year. CU had its best offensive game of the season last week against Iowa State.
Total (58): The under is 7-1 in OSU’s past eight road games.
North Carolina at Maryland (+2.5)
Why Tar Heels cover: They need to win to stay atop the Coastal Division and keep those ACC title game hopes alive. The Heels had their best rushing game of the season last week versus Georgia Tech and face a Terps team allowing an average of 152.3 yards on the ground.
Why Terrapins cover: They get up for ranked teams, going 3-0 against them this season. Maryland is 5-0 at home, outscoring teams 153-82. The Terps are 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.
Total (45.5): The over is 4-1 in Terps’ past five home games and Heels’ last five road games.
BYU at Air Force (+5.5)
Why Cougars cover: BYU is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings and the favorite in this matchup is 6-1 ATS in the past seven. QB Max Hall has thrown for 12 TDs and only one interception in his last three games, all wins. BYU has beaten Air Force four games in a row by an average of 20.5 points.
Why Falcons cover: They have won five in a row and have probably the second-best defense in the Mountain West, holding opponents to 17.3 points and 304.0 yards of offense. Air Force is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 conference games. BYU is 0-6 ATS in its past six games.
Total (51): Over is 4-1 in Air Force’s past five games.
Boston College at Florida St. (-6.5)
Why Eagles cover: FSU has fallen behind by at least 10 points in the past four games. BC has the ACC’s best rush defense, allowing 101.8 yards per game. In the last four games, the Eagles have returned an interception, a fumble and two punts for touchdowns. The Eagles have won seven of their past nine against ranked teams.
Why Seminoles cover: The Noles are 5-1 ATS in their past six home games while BC is 1-6 ATS in its past seven ACC games. This year’s Noles have a running game, averaging 205.2 yards, second in the ACC. They have won four of six against BC.
Total (46.5): The over is 5-1 in both teams’ past six games overall.
Troy at LSU (-18)
Why Trojans cover: They face a struggling LSU team that has dropped three of five games. No one is struggling more than Tigers QB Jarrett Lee, who threw four picks last week and has eight in the past three games. The Trojans are 7-2 ATS in their past nine against the SEC. LSU is 0-5 ATS in its past five at home.
Why Tigers cover: They haven’t lost consecutive games since 2002 and have won 17 straight non-conference games. Troy hasn’t beaten a ranked team since 2004 (seven straight losses). Freshman QB Jordan Jefferson is expected to see more time this week, which could spark a struggling offense. LSU is 8-2-1 ATS in its past 11 following a loss.
Total (54.5): Over is 5-0 in Trojans’ past five vs. the SEC.
Tulsa at Houston (+4)
Why Golden Hurricane cover: The Golden Hurricane lead the Football Bowl Subdivision with 52.0 points and 593.0 yards per game. They crushed Houston 56-7 last year. The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games following a win.
Why Cougars cover: An upset here would mean Houston would control its own destiny to win C-USA’s West Division. Tulsa QB David Johnson is struggling with just two TD passes in his last two games after throwing 31 in his first seven. Houston has scored at least 41 points in four of its last five games.
Total (79.5): The under is 7-0 in Tulsa’s last seven games on grass.
California at Oregon State (-3)
Why Golden Bears cover: They have won their last two visits to Corvallis by a combined 90-20 score. The visiting team in the series has won the last five meetings. Cal has held five of its past six opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Bears lead the Pac-10 with 17 interceptions. They are 5-1 ATS in the Pac-10 this year.
Why Beavers cover: They control their destiny in the Pac-10, holding the tiebreaker over USC. Oregon State’s defense has held opponents to averages of 14.3 points and 260.3 yards over the last four games while forcing 10 turnovers. OSU’s Jacquizz Rodgers has exceeded 100 yards rushing in six of the past seven games.
Total (51.5): The under is 9-4-1 in Cal’s past 14 road games.