College football top 25 cheat sheet: Week 15
By MATT SEVERANCE
Friday: Ball State vs. Buffalo (+14.5)
Why Cardinals cover: They possess the MAC offensive player of the year (QB Nate Davis) and the conference’s leading rusher (RB MiQuale Lewis). The Cardinals outclassed Buffalo last year, 49-14. BSU is 5-0 all-time vs. Buffalo and Brady Hoke is motivating his team to finish unbeaten. Ball State has won all but one of its games this season by double digits.
Why Bulls cover: They have a running back nearly of MiQuale Lewis’ stature in James Starks. QB Drew Willy has 33 touchdown passes and just five interceptions in the past 18 games. The Bulls average 30.2 points per game and were the second-hottest team in the MAC before falling to Kent State in a close regular-season finale. The Bulls are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 conference games.
Total (62): The over is 5-1 in Buffalo’s past six games.
Alabama vs. Florida (-9.5)
Why Crimson Tide cover: Nick Saban will play the lack-of-respect card with his top-ranked team being such a big underdog. Even if Florida WR Percy Harvin plays, he’ll be limited and that’s a huge weapon the Tide won’t have to deal with. The Tide’s No. 3 overall defense is the best Florida has seen this year. Alabama has beaten three top-15 teams on the road or at a neutral site this year. The Tide are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.
Why Gators cover: They are rolling like no other team outside of Oklahoma. UF has scored an average of 53.7 points while winning each of its last seven games by at least four touchdowns. Tim Tebow has 17 passing and 10 rushing touchdowns in his last seven games. Florida’s defense is overshadowed by the offense; the defense ranks in the top 10 in total and scoring defense.
Total (51.5): The over is 5-0 in UF’s past five neutral-site games.
Missouri vs. Oklahoma (-16.5)
Why Tigers cover: Chase Daniel and Co. will be looking for a little payback after getting dominated by OU last year. Oklahoma lost another starting linebacker to injury in Auston Box. Sooners QB Sam Bradford has torn ligaments on his left hand, which shouldn’t affect throws but could be a factor in snaps. The Sooners have allowed at least 21 points in seven straight games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
Why Sooners cover: They had no trouble with Mizzou last year and this year’s OU team appears much better with the Tigers looking shakier. Bradford leads the country in TD passes, and Missouri’s pass defense is fourth from the bottom in Division I-A. OU has scored an unthinkable 58 or more points in five straight games. Star defensive end Auston English is likely to return from injury this week. The Sooners have covered in every game but the loss to Texas this year.
Total (78.5): These two teams have combined for nearly 1,200 points this year, and neither team can stop the pass.
Southern Cal at UCLA (+32)
Why Trojans cover: The Bruins are near the bottom in scoring, while USC is having a historic defensive season. The Trojans have allowed only 10 touchdowns this year and an NCAA-low 7.8 points per game. No team anywhere has given up fewer points per game in the last 13 seasons. Pete Carroll is 6-1 vs. UCLA and many of his players remember the upset to the Bruins in 2006.
Why Bruins cover: They have played spoiler in this series after knocking off No. 2 USC in 2006. Rick Neuheisel has made it a point to tell his players not to fear the crosstown Trojans and this spread is the biggest in the history of this rivalry. USC is just 2-5 in its past seven December games and Pete Carroll’s teams sometimes have a hiccup against unranked foes they should clobber (see UCLA in ’06, Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State this year).
Total (47.5): The under is 9-1-1 in UCLA’s past 11 Pac-10 games.
Cincinnati at Hawaii (+7)
Why Bearcats cover: Coach Brian Kelly is guaranteeing his team won’t have a letdown and is pushing for the club to win a school record 11th game. Cincinnati has taken off lately under QB Tony Pike and has won nine of 10 games. Hawaii is 0-5 ATS in its past five non-conference games and was routed by two non-conference ranked teams this season. No doubt the Bearcats will be fired up knowing that Kelly says he is staying put.
Why Warriors cover: The travel and time difference certainly could take a toll on the Bearcats. Cincinnati is already guaranteed a BCS bowl berth so the players’ motivation in the sunny climate could be an issue. Hawaii has just one loss at home, while both of Cincinnati’s losses this year were away from the Queen City. QB Greg Alexander has found his rhythm after leading Hawaii to four wins in five games and throwing 10 touchdown passes to just one interception over that span.
Total (50.5): The under is 7-1 in Hawaii’s past eight non-conference games.
Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (pick’em)
Why Eagles cover: They have already handled the Hokies once this year, winning 28-23 despite turning the ball over five times. BC held Tech to a season-low 240 total yards in the loss. BC’s rush defense is seventh in the country and it gave Tech fits in the first meeting. BC is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.
Why Hokies cover: They lost to Boston College last regular season but then turned the tables in the 2007 ACC title game. The Hokies allowed 28 points in the first meeting, but that was when BC had starting QB Chris Crane healthy. Eagles redshirt freshman Dominique Davis makes his second career start this week against the nation’s No. 6 defense.
Total (39): The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
Pittsburgh at Connecticut (-2.5)
Why Panthers cover: They won the Backyard Brawl against WVU even though RB LeSean McCoy netted a career-high in rushing yards. UConn, meanwhile, has just two wins in its past six games. Pitt has the third-ranked rush defense in the Big East and it can stack the line against UConn RB Donald Brown because the Huskies aren’t much of a passing threat with only four TD passes this year against 12 picks. The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Why Huskies cover: QB Tyler Lorenzen should be more in synch with the offense in his third game back from a broken foot. The Huskies are 6-1 this year when he starts. UConn is 7-2 ATS in its past nine home games. Pitt QB Bill Stull has struggled the past two games, looking very bad against West Virginia last week.
Total (46.5): The over is 4-0 in UConn’s past four games.