College Football Week 1 Betting News and Notes

College football lines that make you go hmmm...
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

A new football season means a whole new crop of “Football Lines That Make You Go Hmmm…”.

Week 1 of the college football slate begins this Thursday and there are more than a few odds out there making bettors scratch their heads. Here’s a look at three games which lines are making us go “Hmmm” this week:

Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-16.5, 57)

This line has baffled many football bettors ever since Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees was suspended. Most markets opened the Irish around -17 and have since dropped the spread to 16.5. However, with the recent news that Notre Dame starting RB Cierre Wood was suspended for the first two games, you would expect another line move for the Irish.

That hasn’t been the case.

While the total has reflected those missing players, going from 58.5 to 57, the spread is staying put at 16.5 – a testament to the public appeal of Notre Dame.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (+8.5, 50)

The Runnin’ Rebels were putrid last season, going a nauseating 3-8-1 ATS. While Bobby Hauck has some experience returning on offense, UNLV managed the fourth fewest yards in the nation in 2011 and isn’t expected to do much more in 2012.

Minnesota isn’t the cream of the crop in the Big Ten but has plenty of returning talent and a game-breaker in QB MarQueis Gray, who can manufacture touchdowns all by himself.

This spread has bounced around this summer, going as low as 7 and as high as 9.5. A big stinky middle could be in the cards for books taking action against the Vegas kids.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Northern Illinois Huskies (+10, 50)

Chandler Harnish was one of the best kept secrets in college football and carried NIU to 11 wins and a bowl victory before making the move to the pros. The Huskies, who averaged 476.1 yards (11th in the country) last season, return just three starters from that offense.

Iowa lost starting RB Marcus Coker to transfer but returns QB James Vandenberg, who was third in passing yards per game in the Big Ten and posted a 25-to-7 TD-to-INT count. New offensive coordinator Greg Davis has a few new wrinkles and the chops to soften the loss of the 1,375 yards and 12 TDs departed WR Marvin McNutt put up in 2011.

Early-bird action has walked this spread from 6.5 all the way to 10. Could game-day money push it past that the key number?

College Football Handicapping: Line Moves Report
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com

In this edition of my line moves report, we'll discuss several significant changes in the college football betting markets. Some of the numbers on key games have been out for over two months, and yet some have not moved at all. I'll tell you why and which way I think they will go.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt

South Carolina opened -4, now -6.5

The first game on the board of the 2012 college football season was hit hard at the opening and we can certainly see why with potential Heisman running back Marcus Lattimore returning to action and a defense that is one of the best in the nation starting seven seniors. Vandy was much improved going 6-7 last season from 2-10 two years ago but they are not the sexy public team here. What I saw was early market players grabbing -6 or less, the public and square sharps jumping on board to take it to -7 and then on Monday the market players taking +7 back. In today's betting market you must be prepared to anticipate certain line moves and when they are going to be bought back, because I can tell you from experience there are hundreds of sports bettors out there who do nothing but sit around their computers all day long buying up key numbers waiting to scalp, middle, and hedge games. Yes, there were patient Vandy backers today that made their presence felt but this was a middle move for sure.

Minnesota at UNLV

Minnesota opened -9, now -8.5

We have to give our local Las Vegas team some pub here. Minnesota opened -9 pretty much everywhere and then were quickly bet down to -7.5 and I agree with the move. Now this is not that significant of a move, but the number 8 is slowly becoming a key number with the advent of the two-point conversion – teams will fight to get within 8 points to have a shot to tie the game. A popular tout service (which will remain nameless) released Minnesota and the line went -9,-9.5 and to -10. But it was bought back fast, which tells us that there are plenty of handicappers and sharp players waiting in the wings to take the home underdog, because the Gophers are simply not that strong.

Boise State at Michigan State

Michigan State opened -4.5, now -7

Week 1 college games will always be bet on teams that return a ton of starters or against a team that lost mega talent, especially to the NFL and that is case here with the line move against Boise State. They lost six players to the NFL, three from their defensive line alone, nine defensive starters total and superstars Kellen Moore and Doug Martin. If we are ever going to find out about the coaching and recruiting ability of head coach Chris Peterson, this year will be it. There are -6.5's out there and I see them disappearing. I think this line will close at -7 or -7.5.

Ohio at Penn State

Penn State opened -9, now -6

Obviously bettors are wagering that the turmoil surrounding Penn State is too much for the team to handle. So why hasn't the number gone lower? This will be an emotional contest where the Nittany Lions will try to lift the spirits of the community. I don't see this line going down any further.

Miami (FL) at Boston College

Miami FL opened -2 now -1

Not a huge move, but a significant one. Within 48 hours BC was a -1 point favorite; a three-point move. And of you shop you can still find the Hurricanes +1. We are led to believe that sharp handicappers are betting against Miami. I've talked to several guys and we all had BC as the favorite in our power ratings. Now, Hurricane Isaac has forced many southern teams to travel early and alter their schedules, making this game tougher to gauge.

Michigan at Alabama

Alabama opened -11, now as high as -14

This is a classic example of the betting markets buying a team early in anticipation of the public jumping on the obvious defending champion favorite. This line will come down and if you like Michigan you have to be careful and get at least two touchdowns, because there will be an avalanche of power underdog bettors taking the points in this one.

Top 25 Notebook
By The SportsBoss
VegasInsider.com

Here is a current list of every injury/suspension/transfer at every FBS school since the end of last season. These updates should be used in conjunction with any preseason magazines or websites you reference to finalize your thoughts on each team because there are a number of significant changes to starters and depth charts listed below. This information will impact your team power ratings, the returning starters magazines/websites list, and will help you get a leg up on Vegas when deciding on your picks or fantasy selections. They are listed in order of the AP Top 25 preseason rankings.

Southern California

USC has lost a pair of DL for basically the season, a position they could ill afford to lose both a starter and a Fr who was expected to provide quality depth. Starting DE Kennard tore his pectoral muscle and is listed out until at least November. The Sr has been playing a ton since coming to LA, and his absence will be huge since there is limited experience behind him. In addition, the Trojans also lost Fr Wilson, who was expected to provide quality depth and be a nice part of the rotation.

Alabama

Starting RB Lacy is listed as questionable for the opener with knee and ankle injuries. The team is deep at RB with numerous VHT's just awaiting their opportunity so although Lacy is the starter, I do not expect a big drop off in production or any issues with depth should he miss any time.

LSU

The Tigers lost CB Tyrann Mathieu for the season, a big concern not only because he obviously is one of the more dynamic defensive players in NCAAF, but they had already lost a pair of CBs from LY's team. Looks like a bunch of RFR will be stepping in and playing significant roles they may not have before this suspension. On top of the fact LSU lost 2 CBs due to graduation/NFL draft after LY and the loss of Tyrann Mathieu in August, the Tigers have also lost So CB Vinson, who played in 10 games over the L2Y's. It is getting extremely thin in the LSU secondary, particularly at CB, and this position warrants extra evaluation prior to the start of the season by checking the updated depth chart - especially with the fun and gun high octane passing attack of Washington coming to Death Valley in Wk2.

Oklahoma

The Sooners have been hit very hard with injuries and suspensions so far prior to the season, especially on offense. Here are all the issues offensively:

They have lost a pair of Sr starting OL for the season. C Habern has been forced to retire from the game due to lingering neck and shoulder issues. RG Evans tore his ACL in camp and will miss the entire season. Evans was HM AB12 LY, and combined with the loss of Habern makes the OU OL that I had ranked as Top 5 in NCAAF significantly worse. That leaves the OL with only 2 returning starters from LY (also lost LT Stephenson), and their career games started drops from 102 to 43! Their replacements have yet to be named, but rest assured they will be a significant drop-off - maybe not so much talent wise as it is Oklahoma, and they recruit talented players across the board - but losing ~60 career starts plus Stephenson is a big hit to the chances OU finally makes it back to the BCS Championship game. As a footnote to the OL, the Sooners also lost 3RD string LT RFr Dismuke due to a knee injury which has forced him to transfer. By itself that is not a huge loss, but depth wise, when considering all the OL is currently going through, it is a loss that must be mentioned.

A pair of WRs will also miss time. Starter Jr Jaz Reynolds will miss multiple games due to a suspension, while the #1 backup Jr Trey Franks is also suspended for multiple games. It has not been announced how many games or which games these players will miss, but it will definitely be a big hit to their passing game when they are out. Considering they open @ UTEP then host Florida A&M before a bye week followed by their B12 opener vs. Kansas State, I expect both players to be in the lineup vs. KST, possibly for the first time all season. As a footnote to the WR corps, Fresno St transfer Jalen Saunders still has not been given the OK by the NCAA to participate in games this season. Saunders is attempting to get the mandatory 1 year sit out period waived due to personal issues, so keep an eye on this. In addition, WR Jackson has been dismissed from the team following off the field issues. He caught 12 passes LY and was expected to see a slight increase in PT this season. While neither of those guys was expected to make a huge splash in a deep and talented WR corps, they would certainly provide depth.

Defensively Oklahoma has two issues of note. Backup Sr DT McGee has been suspended, just like the WRs mentioned above, and his status is unknown but he will be in the lineup after at worst missing a few games. He is projected as the #3 DT in the rotation for 2 spots. Backup So SS Hayes has also been suspended like McGee. He is the only backup S that has extensive experience, which will leave the secondary a little thin to start the season.

Oregon

Ducks backup WR Sr Hoffman has retired from football and will join the coaching staff for this season. This is not a huge blow for a deep and talented WR corps as he was slated on the 3rd team.

Georgia

The Bulldogs will not have starting OLB Vasser & starting CB Commings for the first two games due to suspension. The Sr CB Commings started all 14 games LY and is the bigger loss of the two, while Jr Vasser only started 3 but played in 12. There is plenty of returning experience to fill the LB hole, but concerns are rampant in the secondary especially with a road trip to new SEC member Missouri on the docket for Wk2.

Starting RT Houston still has issues with the NCAA in his attempt to return from taking a banned substance that cost him all of 2011. The So's status is unknown and warrants continued attention; there is little to no experience amongst the backup OT's, so any extended absence, especially if it continues through September 8 when the Dawgs travel to Mizzou, will have a huge impact on the OL.

So CB Harrow and So RB Crowell have both been dismissed from GEORGIA for violating team policy. The loss of Crowell is massive, as he is one of the most skilled RBs in the country; there is experience however to replace him, but they will not be as dynamic. Harrow's loss will not be that impactful, however, early in the season when there are a few players out of the lineup due to suspensions, his absence will be felt some from a depth perspective.

A pair of incoming Fr DL for GEORGIA has failed to qualify academically and will attend prep school for a year to get their grades in order. Although the pair is talented, UGA already features one of the best DLs in the country, so their delayed joining of the team will not be felt at all.

Florida State

Fr RB Pender, a 5* recruit, has a serious groin injury that will force him to redshirt in '12. The Noles still have starter Freeman and backup Wilder active, so although early in the season this injury may not have much of an impact, as the season goes on and the RB corps gets banged up, his absence will impact the depth of the unit. Sr Chris Thompson will slide up the depth chart into the #3 spot, and will likely see carries this year.

RFr DT Mitchell has a lower back disc injury and is out about 8 weeks. Although the youngster is talented, he would not be leaned on much this season as FSU already boasts one of the best DLs in the country.

Greg Reid, the All Star CB/PR has been dismissed from the team for violating team rules. This is a big blow to the special teams unit of the Noles, along with impacting a pass defense that severely underachieved LY considering all the individual talent it possesses. Taking into consideration FSU lost a CB who had 6 starts LY to graduation, and the CB spot opposite Jr Rhodes is a question mark right now. FSU has a ton of talent amongst the backups in the secondary, but experience will be an issue - look for So Waisome to take over the vacated gig. As mentioned Reid was an AS KR/PR, which will be sorely missed - the staff is still deciding on who will take over those roles.

Michigan

Starting RB Touissant is listed as questionable for the opener vs. Alabama because of a DUI arrest earlier this offseason. This situation warrants close monitoring as he was a huge surprise impact RB last year for the Wolverines, and although RBs Smith and Rawls feel they are ready to be the main guy, FT is a key piece of the Wolverines offense that must be working close to full throttle vs. the Tide to have any chance at coming out with an upset win. Starting WR Roundtree is questionable for Wk1 vs. Alabama. He had surgery earlier in August, and although he is expected to be in the lineup, it remains uncertain at this point.

Fr DT Pipkins is recovering from a neck injury and is listed as questionable to start the season. The Wolverines lost a lot of man power on the DL from LY, and Pipkins has the size and talent to potentially be a part of the rotation - maybe not to start the season, but by October it should certainly happen. Even if he misses early action his loss will not have a profound impact on the Michigan defense.

South Carolina

RB Lattimore looks very good little lingering issues from his ACL last season. I think he will be fine and have a monster season. RB continues to be an area surrounded by question marks. Lattimore has looked fine in camp with only a little lingering issues showing up from his torn ACL, but keep in mind he is still coming back from a serious knee injury that was suffered less than a year ago.

In addition, RB Wilds, LY's #2 rusher among RBs, is listed as doubtful for their opener at VANDERBILT with an ankle injury. What's still more, 4th string RB Carson is out with a wrist injury that recently required surgery. Lastly, as far as RBs go, two incoming Fr will also not be available this year. That leaves SCAR with a non 100% Lattimore, and Sr Kenny Miles for the tough road opener at conference foe and possibly sleeper Vandy. This position is definitely something to keep an eye on as the Gamecocks rely on their rushing attack offensively - they finished #95th in the country in passing yards, and lost their better passing QB Garcia, along with NFL draft pick Alshon Jeffery.

The Gamecocks lost CB Auguste, a projected starter, for at least 4-5 weeks, probably longer. Big loss as that comes on the heels of losing 3 CBs who started at least 6 games LY, including NFL draftee Gilmore. LY SC had the #2 passing defense in the entire country - this year, CB appears to be somewhat of a concern, at least early in the season.

4th string QB McEvoy has transferred in search of more playing time. The loss is not significant obviously.

Backup SPUR Golightly, who appeared in 12 games LY, has been suspended for the first three games this year. The Gamecocks would like to get him back on the field as soon as possible so he can soak in all he can from starting Sr Holloman. In the meantime, the backup role will be taken over by RFr Roberts, which is a big time drop-off, especially if anything was to happen to Holloman.

Arkansas

Keep an eye on RB Knile Davis, who is clearly one of the best RBs in the SEC, but is working his way back from an ankle injury that forced him to miss all of last season. He has not taken part in any contact drills as of yet (to my knowledge), and although it seems a lock he will be in pads and playing come the September 1st opener vs. Jacksonville State, the Razorbacks are much more concerned that he is ready to go at 100% come Wk3, September 15th vs. Alabama. I do not foresee any issues with him getting into the lineup, but it's never a good thing when a player doesn't practice full speed in pads.

Starting #2 WR Wade and backup WR Humphrey has been suspended for the season. Combine the status of those two players with the tragic death of TE Uekman, the loss of LY's top 3 WRs to the NFL, and the loss of HC Petrino and the Razorbacks passing game is facing a lot of adversity before the season even kicks off. Keep an eye on the effectiveness of the Arkansas WRs early in the season as it could very well tell us how good and prolific of an offense they will have once the SEC defenses are opposite them.

West Virginia

No Updates Available

Wisconsin

The Badgers will start QB O'Brien, their transfer from Maryland this season. In addition to that announcement at QB, the Badgers have suffered 3 season ending injuries/transfers to backups. #2 Brennan has decided to leave the program in search of more playing time following the staff anointing O'Brien the starter. 3rd string Jr Budmayr has hip issues and will miss the entire season. Also, incoming Fr Houston had shoulder surgery and will RS the 2012 season. That leaves the Badgers with 3 QBs - O'Brien the starter, and backups RFr Stave and Jr Phillips. It will be a massive issue if O'Brien gets injured this season.

Wisconsin has lost a pair of backup defensive players for the season due to injury. Jr DT Kohout has retired from football as an MRI revealed he has had a few minor strokes in his life - he had 40+ tackles in his career at Wisconsin as a backup. Backup SS Singleton, a Fr, has not been cleared academically and will miss the entire season. He was one of the top recruits of the 2012 class for the Badgers, and his loss will lead to a medium talent drop-off to the next player ready to step in, but nothing significant, and he remains a key piece of the Badger secondary going forward.

Michigan State

The Spartans have a pair of incoming Fr WRs that were considered likely to make impacts this season that are on the mend currently. Monty Madaris has a high ankle sprain and is considered questionable for the big opener vs. Boise State. Aaron Burbridge had surgery on his knee and is out for at least 4 weeks. The Spartans still have ample talented bodies to rotate, as these two would see limited action, instead spending the season learning and soaking in as much knowledge from the veterans as possible.

Starting LG (was a C in 2010) Treadwell is out at least 4 weeks with a broken bone in his leg. The Jr missed all of LY with a knee injury. It appears as of now he will be replaced in the starting lineup by RFr Jack Allen, a significant drop-off in proven production. In addition to the loss of Treadwell MSU also lost backup John Deyo to a transfer. The Sr Deyo was a career backup, although he has appeared in 34 games during his career. Those two OL losses will partially offset the positive that 4 returning starters bring. Over the first month of the season MSU has 3 critical games, the aforementioned opener vs. Boise State, hosting Notre Dame 2wks later, and hosting Ohio State on September 29th. At least 4 of the first 5 and 5 of the first 7 are at home, with the only road games during those stretches Wk2 @ Central Michigan, and Wk6 @ Indiana.

Clemson

WR Sammy Watkins, the ACC OPOY and 1ST Team AA, is suspended for the first two games of the season, including the huge opener vs. Auburn. This is a critical loss for Clemson in their hopes to start the season fast against an SEC team following last year's debacle in the Orange Bowl where they lost to WVU 70-33. What Tiger fans can take some solice in is the fact they return all their key producers and backups from LY sans Mackey winning TE Allen. His loss will be big in the opener (still a game they can definitely win), but will not have an impact Wk2 vs. Ball State.

RB Bellamy, their #2 behind 2nd Team ACC RB Andre Ellington, is out for the year due to academics. DJ Howard will step into the #2 role, and some decline in production can be expected (but not a huge drop) as Bellamy was a top rated RB out of HS, and LY averaged 6.0 yards per carry.

Texas

Although it initially was announced Texas would start QB Ash and he would be their QB this season with no worries of being yanked mid-game for poor performance, it has now been announced that once again he will rotate with McCoy - at least initially - when they open the season against Wyoming.

Top backup WR Miles Onyegbule could miss the beginning of the season with a chest injury. Although the Horns are set with their 3 starters, Onyegbule will have a significant role in the passing game this fall.

Virginia Tech

No Updates Available

Nebraska

Starting RT Moore has been lost to personal reasons. Last season he was the first true Fr to start on the NU OL. He will likely be replaced by Jr Qvale, who played in 11 games LY at RT. In addition, also on the OL, 3rd team RG Klachko has transferred to Illinois. That move will not have a profound impact on performance or depth on the Huskers OL.

Ohio State

Starting RB Hall suffered a foot surgery over the summer and will miss at least the first two games of the season, possibly more considering CAL & UAB are games 3&4 in the Shoe. The Buckeyes already lost RB Boom Herron from LY, so that leaves Jr Carlos Hyde to step in for Hall, which will not be a big drop off in talent or production especially considering the schedule.

OSU released starting MLB Klein earlier this summer following violations of team rules, but then reinstated him last week. He will at least miss two games, possibly more but figures to at worst be back by the B10 schedule. Look for top rated recruit, So Curtis Grant, to take over in his absence.

Starting DE Sr Williams is still working his way back from microfracture surgery that forced him to miss all of LY, and his status remains questionable for Wk1. Also at DE incumbent starter Jr Bellamy has left the team for personal reasons - he was slated to either start if Williams could not, or be the first DE off the bench and a key part of the rotation. With these two injuries there is no doubt from a talent and experience standpoint OSU takes a hit. While there are highly rated players waiting to slide up the depth chart, these two losses will be felt for certain especially if Williams is not able to come back, or at least get close to 100%. Keep an eye on Williams' status updates as September rolls around.

The Buckeyes have also lost a trio of 3rd team players I will just list here, as they were expected to have minimal, if any, impact this season but did provide depth, which could become an issue with the scholarship losses they will suffer from shortly: So Boubek, a C, has transferred to Minnesota after falling down to #3 on the depth chart; Fr O'Connor, a RT, injured his left knee recently and will sit out the season as a RS; RFr NT Hayes has transferred to Michigan State.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys dismissed starting Sr LT Bowie for violation of team rules. Considering the State OL already lost 3 starters from LY, this is a big blow as he was to be the anchor of the unit - allowing ZERO sacks and limited QBHs LY - protecting the blindside of Fr QB Lunt. We will either see Jr RT Graham slide into the vacated LT spot, or backup T So Koenig take over at LT. It has not been announced yet who is officially taking over, but this is a big blow to an already shaky unit, especially considering they are a pass happy team and are breaking in a brand new Fr QB.

3rd string DT Mustafa has left the team for personal reasons. He did not appear in any games LY, and as a RFr was considered to potentially be a part of the DT rotation. Not a huge loss here for 2012.

TCU

No Updates Available

Stanford

Backup RB Gaffney has decided to pursue a baseball career. This is a big loss for the Cardinal from a depth perspective - Sr Taylor returns and is a stud, no doubt one of the best RBs in the entire country. But if he was to get injured, there now isn't that one highly talented player behind him. It will be RBC as a backup to Taylor now, and with the loss of top draft pick QB Luck, Stanford must keep its fingers and toes cross Taylor stays healthy, or they will struggle mightily offensively.

Kansas State

The Wildcats were dealt a significant blow when it was announced their top recruit for this year, JUCO transfer Marquez Clark, has been ruled academically ineligible. Clark is coming off a season where he set JUCO records with 98 receptions for 1,639 yards! This is a massive blow to the KSU passing game that has been rumored as potentially ramping up significantly this season behind 2nd year starter Collin Klein. So Tyler Lockett, a good player in his own right but not in the same category of Clark, will likely step into the starting gig that has been vacated.

KSU suffered another significant loss when Sr LT Foketi announced he would transfer. KSU is currently blocking the request, but nevertheless, his loss will be massive to an OL that already lost 3 starters from LY - 1T B12 RT, 2T B12 LT, and RG. Foketi missed LY with an ACL, and the drop-off in talent behind him is huge. The loss of Foketi and Clark are two of the biggest losses among contending teams heading into the 2012 season. Florida

CB Brown continues to work his way back from an ACL injury that cost him all of 2011. In 2010 he started 10 games, and this year was being counted on to most likely be a nickel or dime defender. Keep an eye on his status as its unlikely he plays in the opener or possibly the first few weeks, but should be back in time to add depth once the SEC schedule gets rolling.

Incoming Fr LT Humphries is OUT for 2-4 weeks following a knee injury. He was the #1 rated OL of the 2012 class, slated to be the Gators #2 LT behind incumbent Sr Nixon. Humphries has a very bright future ahead of him in Gainesville, so monitor his status closely as the calendar turns to October.

DE/BUCK Powell continues working his way back from an ACL injury suffered in the spring. HC Muschamp expects the top flight DE to return to action for the SEC portion of the schedule, and he will be a huge addition along a defensive front that has the potential to be one of the top 5 or so in the country once he gets back into the lineup. He had 6 sacks LY. Sr McCray, a very talented defender himself, will start in Powell's absence.

Boise State

Starting #3 WR Boldweijn has been suspended for the first 3 games of 2012, eligible to return to action Oct. 3 vs. Southern Mississippi. Although he hasn't produced much since arriving, he has all the measurables and is perceived as a potential break-out candidate in 2012. There is similar statistical production amongst the backup WRs compared to Boldweijn, but none possess the raw tools he does to potentially turn into a legitimate #1. As far as the WR corps as a whole goes, the more experience BSU can boast outside the easier it will be to break-in new QB Joe Southwick.

Boise lost 6th year Sr and starting C Yriarte for the season because of a knee injury. Look for Jr Paradis, who started 1 game as C LY, to step into the open role - which will be a talent drop-off for sure, and will not be of great assistance to breaking in the new QB.

DL Jungblut has transferred, which is a serious blow to the depth of a DL that already lost all 4 starters, and 1 other player who had 6 starts himself LY. Included in the players lost before Jungblut was a pair of 1T AMW, and one 2T AMW. Starting talent and depth are major concerns at DL this season for the Broncos.

Louisville

WR Harris is out for the season after tearing ligaments in the same knee that he tore his ACL LY. He was the leading returning & probably best WR for the Cardinals, and although there is some experienced depth behind him, he will be sorely missed.

NCAAF Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 1
By Covers.com

If your handicapping method leans heavily on spotting mismatches, Week 1 of the college football season is your Christmas morning.

Heavyweight title-contending programs like to stretch their legs against much weaker foes, even locking horns with some FCS squads in an effort to boost confidence and iron out the details before the “real” games begin.

However, some teams are tested right out of the gate. And those are the contests we’ll focus on in our first NCAAF mismatches article of the year.

UMass Minutemen at UConn Huskies (-24.5)

UMass' FBS jitters vs. UConn's aggressive defense

The Minutemen meet an old foe in their first FBS game. Massachusetts goes up against an aggressive and experienced defense, with the Huskies returning eight starters including all three linebackers. Connecticut ranked at the bottom of the Big East in pass defense last year but gambled a lot, forcing 31 turnovers (13 fumbles, 18 interceptions). Expect the Huskies to take advantage of a nervous Minutemen squad.

Boise State Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-7, 45.5)

Michigan State RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Boise State run defense

Bell finished eighth in the Big Ten in rushing as a sophomore and will get even more carries as a junior with the major turnover in talent in the Spartans’ passing game. Boise State head coach Chris Petersen knows he’s in for a long night against the 6-foot-2, 244-pound running back, losing all for starting linemen as well as the top three linebackers from 2011.

"We've taped two of our running backs together and they carry the ball at the same time to get a little feel of what it'd be like to really tackle a guy (that size), because we don't have anybody around here who looks like that," Peterson told mlive.com. "He is a load. And that'll be different for our guys."

Nevada Wolf Pack at California Golden Bears (-10.5, 55.5)

Nevada’s pistol offense vs. California defense

The last time these two met, Nevada’s option-heavy package rolled over the Golden Bears for a 52-31 win back in 2010. Of course, former QB Colin Kaepernick did most of the damage. The Wolf Pack have another dangerous dual-threat in sophomore QB Cody Fajardo, who rushed for 11 touchdowns last season. Cal’s defense suffered some serious losses, most notably Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year LB Mychal Kendricks.

ACC Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

I have lived in Atlantic Coast Conference territory for a few years now, right in the heart of Tobacco Road. There is no denying that this has been, is, and likely always will be, basketball country. However, there are some die-hard football fans with unrealistic goals, especially at this time of the season, who believe each of their schools are national championship contenders.

Each week, I'll be looking at the five most intriguing matchups in the conference. Without further adieu, let's break down Week 1...

5-Star Game - Clemson vs. Auburn (from Georgia Dome)

The Clemson Tigers were thoroughly embarrassed in the Orange Bowl last season against West Virginia, who hung a 70-spot on them. They will have redemption on their mind as they roll into Atlanta Saturday night for the second half of the Chick-Fil-A opening weekend of games.

Unlike Duke, who we mentioned above, the Clemson Tigers have no trouble firing out of the chute. Traditionally, the Tigers roll early in the season, and don't disappoint until well after the leaves have changed colors and there is a chill in the upstate air. Clemson will be without playmaker Sammy Watkins (suspension) for the primetime battle, which is a big loss for the offense.

This battle of the Tigers will be won thanks to experience, and that favors Clemson heavily. Auburn was not a great passing offense last season, and QBs Kiehl Frazier and Clint Moseley are rather inexperienced coming into this one. In addition, the Tigers will have three first-time starters up front on the offensive line. While they have RB Onterrio McCalebb returning in the backfield, if the O-line can't open holes, it will be a very long evening for the Auburn offense.

4-Star Game - Tennessee vs. North Carolina State (from Georgia Dome)

While I tend to have a more discerning eye, I have gotten sucked into the hype surrounding head coach Tom O'Brien's North Carolina State Wolf Pack

N.C. State heads down to Atlanta for the Chick-Fil-A kickoff weekend to take on the Tennessee Volunteers. Bettors might be seeing red, as the ACC representative is getting three and a hook from most books.

First off, QB Tyler Bray is back for the Vols, and he showed be can be good. However, WR Da'Rick Rogers was suspended for multiple failed drug tests, and he has since transferred. That's a big piece of ammunition missing from Bray's arsenal. Add in the fact that the Vols do not have a top-notch caliber running back on their roster, and they might struggle to move the chains. Secondly, the Wolfpack have one of the best DBs in the nation in All-ACC CB David Amerson. He is the Darrelle Revis of the ACC. His nose for the ball literally shrinks the field for opposing offenses. Lastly, the Volunteers are changing their defensive scheme, and they are young and inexperienced as it is. Look for much confusion, as N.C. State's QB Scott Glennon picks them apart.

3-Star Game - Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech

Bettors will want to pay close attention to this one on the Labor Day holiday. Georgia Tech likely will want to take to the air quite a bit more with QB Tevin Washington, although they'll need someone to step up following the loss of WR Stephen Hill to the NFL. The Yellow Jackets ranked second overall in the nation in rushing yards per game last season, and Washington found the end zone three times on the ground against the Hokies last year. Don't think Virginia Tech doesn't remember that, and will be looking to atone for that.

The Hokies defense is the highlight of a team still looking for a runner to step up, and an offensive line to take shape. That defense has helped the under come through frequently for Virginia Tech in the past two seasons. The under is 15-5-1 in the past 21 games for Virginia Tech, and the under is 4-1 in the past five meetings between these sides.

Bettors will want to note that the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their past four September games, while the Hokies are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six games at Lane Stadium, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games on grass. The road team has covered in five of the past six meetings in the 'Battle of the Techs'.

2-Star Game - Florida International at Duke

The Duke Blue Devils have appeared in just eight bowl games in school history, and just two since 1960. Their last postseason appearance came in 1995 in the Hall of Fame Bowl. However, hope springs eternal in Durham, and head coach David Cutcliffe is ever the optimist. He feels his squad could be very good if the offense can offset a rather marginal defense. He might be right, or he might be crazy. We'll see.

The Dukies do have WR Connor Vernon returning, and he might be one of the most unheralded receivers in the nation. He has tremendous hands, and is Duke's version of NFL star Wes Welker. FIU would be wise to pay tremendous mind to where No. 2 is on the field at all times.

FIU will need to find a playmaker to make up for WR T.Y. Hilton, who has moved on to the NFL. This game will be played at night at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, and that is not exactly a house of horrors for the opposition. Over the past couple of seasons, the Blue Devils have started slow. They lost to FCS power Richmond (who opens in Charlottesville at Virginia this weekend) in 2011, and they lost their first six games against FCS opponents in 2010 before showing signs of life late.

Bettors might want to take a good, long look at FIU on the road this weekend, as Duke tends to start slow, and awaken a few games into the season. At least that's been the trend lately.

1-Star Game - Miami (Fla.) at Boston College

It's Year 2 of the Al Golden era in Miami, and his Hurricanes will open the season on the road with a conference game. That's the bad news. The good news is that the Canes will face Boston College, which struggled mightily last year.

The Hurricanes have been installed as a slight favorite, and they are the better team here. The Hurricanes covered their final four games on the road last season, and they are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with B.C. Another trend bettors might like, the Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games in the month of September.

Another note to keep in mind, the Hurricanes tend to be slowed somewhat on the field turf. The over/under is listed as a rather marginal 44 points, but the under has cashed four times in the past five games Miami has played on field turf.

Three Potential Upsets for Week 1 of College Football
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

It seems every college football season opens with at least one shocking upset.

The popular pick among upset hunters this year is Vanderbilt to knock off South Carolina as a home underdog Thursday night. That line recently dropped from a touchdown to Vandy +6.5 as the kickoff to college ball draws closer.

Here’s a look at three other potential outright upsets, with some help from our live odds trackers and Covers Consensus:

Washington State Cougars at BYU Cougars (-12.5, 65)

Cougar-on-Cougar action sounds like a promo for a porno flick, but this Week 1 matchup is oozing with upset potential. New WSU head coach Mike Leach is bringing his high-flying offense to Spokane and books expect some fireworks with a 65-point total. Expect stud WR Marquess Wilson to become a household name by the time this one is over. The spread has dropped from 13.5 and 47 percent of Covers Consensus players are taking Wazzu to at least cover.

Toledo Rockets at Arizona Wildcats (-10, 60.5)

History is against Arizona and new head coach Rich Rodriguez. In his West Virginia debut, RichRod’s Mountaineers were spanked 34-10 by Boston College as 5.5-point underdogs back in 2001. His first showing in Michigan was a 25-23 flop versus Utah as a 3-point fave in 2008. And now, Rodriguez makes his desert debut versus a dangerous Toledo squad that upset the Wolverines under RichRod’s watch in 2008. This line climbed as high as 11 but has come back to the key number. Thirty-one percent of Covers Consensus bettors are picking the Rockets to cover.

SMU Mustangs at Baylor Bears (-10, 58)

Baylor not only has to fill the Texas-sized hole left by Robert Griffin III but was also dealt a loss to the defensive line with Kaeron Johnson being ruled out for the season following back surgery. The Bears are weak in the trenches and face a very good SMU offense led by Texas-transfer QB Garrett Gilbert and FB Zach Line, who led the C-USA with 122.4 yards per game before suffering a foot injury in November. The spread has plummeted from as high as 12.5 and 37 percent of Covers Consensus players are backing SMU to at least stay within the 10 points.

College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 1
By Covers.com

College football is back - finally. If you're looking to bet big but only have a short amount of time to handicap, let our Top 25 cheat sheet help you out. We grabbed some quick hitting info on each of the Top-25 matchups with odds available in Week 1 of the season:

South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+6.5, 45)

The Gamecocks have won nine of 11 games against Vanderbilt in Nashville. The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Boise State Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-6.5, 46.5)

Boise State and Michigan State have never met – the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in 1997 in their lone game against a Big Ten school and the Spartans are 7-2 against current members of the Mountain West. The Spartans have won 11 consecutive home openers since falling to Colorado State in 1998.

San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal (-26, 51.5)

Stanford has won the last four meetings since suffering a humbling 35-34 loss to the Spartans in 2006. The Cardinal lead the series 50-14-1. Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in Stanford.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen (+15.5, 56.5)

After losing to Navy 35-17 in 2010 – a second straight loss to the Midshipmen – Notre Dame rebounded with an impressive 56-14 victory last season, it’s biggest blowout in 2011. Midshipmen are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.

Buffalo Bulls at Georgia Bulldogs (-37.5, 53.5)

The Bulls are 0-3 against current SEC schools. Buffalo won its last game against a Top 25 team, upending No. 12 Ball State in the 2008 MAC championship game 42-24. The Bulls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.

Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers (-24.5, 65.5)

West Virginia has won all 11 meetings against Marshall, however, the Thundering Herd are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Herd has not defeated a ranked opponent since a win over No. 6 Kansas in 2003, a span of 13 consecutive losses.

Bowling Green Falcons at Florida Gators (-28.5, 48)

The Falcons are 3-6 against ranked teams since 2003, with the last victory coming at No. 25 Pittsburgh in 2008. The Falcons are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as road underdogs.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-20, 53)

Since losing the first game of the 1985 season to Florida State, Nebraska has won each of its next 26 season openers by double figures.

Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers (+3.5, 55.5)

Clemson has won 21 of its last 27 season openers and seven of its last 10. The Tigers' three opening losses in the past decade have come against top-25 teams. Auburn has won its last six openers and is 92-25-2 all-time in opening games.

North Texas Mean Green at Louisiana State Tigers (-42.5, 52)

During its 37-game non-conference win streak in the regular season, LSU has outscored opponents 1,479-391, including a 1,163-236 margin at home. Over is 4-1 in Tigers' last five non-conference games.

Hawaii Warriors at USC Trojans (-40, 62.5)

USC is 7-0 against Hawaii and notched a 49-36 victory in 2010 in the most-recent meeting. The Trojans are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference games.

Wyoming Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (-30, 51)

Texas is 99-17-3 (.845) in openers, including a 77-7-2 (.907) mark at home. Brown has won 13 of his 14 openers at Texas. Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as road underdogs.

Michigan Wolverines at Alabama Crimson Tide (-14, 45.5)

Michigan is 24-9-1 against current SEC teams, but the Wolverines haven't faced an SEC opponent in the regular season since 2006. Over is 7-1 in Wolverines' last eight versus SEC foes.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Oregon Ducks (-35, 68.5)

The Ducks averaged 46.1 points, third in the nation last season. Over is 21-4-1 in Ducks' last 26 games as home favorites.

Oklahoma Sooners at UTEP Miners (+31, 61.5)

Oklahoma has won the two previous meetings - 55-14 in 2000 and 68-0 in 2002 - both in Norman. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.

Big Ten Report - Week 1
By ASAwins.com

The college football season kicks off this Thursday and we are here to breakdown the first installment of our week-by-week Big Ten betting report. Along with two marquee games this week, Alabama-Michigan & Boise State-Michigan State, we also have plenty of other action.

Let's look at every team in the conference!

Thursday, Aug. 30

Minnesota (-8.5) at UNLV

The Gophers kick off the season for the Big Ten in Las Vegas on Thursday night. Minnesota should be improved in the second season under head coach Jerry Kill. If that's the case, it should be able to beat a struggling UNLV program, even on the road. Quarterback MarQueis Gray and this offense struggled to put up points a year ago, but they shouldn't have much trouble here against this UNLV program that ranked 118th in points allowed last season at 40.4 PPG allowed. The Gophers defense improved over the 2nd half of last season and could get a boost of confidence with a big game here as UNLV ranked 117th in total offense a year ago. Minnesota is 8-2 in road openers with the average win by 17 points per game. The Gophers played well on the road to open up the season last year, nearly pulling an upset over #25 USC as a 23-point underdog (lost 17-19). UNLV is 2-11 vs. Big Ten teams. The Rebels are 13-8 in home openers, but just 1-5 against BCS conference teams.

Friday, Aug. 31

No. 13 Michigan State (-7) vs. No. 24 Boise State

Two new quarterbacks are the big story here, as both get tossed into the fire against stout defenses. MSU will replace the team's career leader in passing yards with junior Andrew Maxwell (18-of-26 in relief duty a year ago). Meanwhile, Boise State replaces the NCAA's career wins leader with junior Joe Southwick (23-of-30 in relief last season). Along with the quarterback position, MSU has to replace its top four receivers from a year ago, but they do return 4/5 of the offensive line and RB Le'Veon Bell. Michigan State had the 10th best scoring defense and the 5th best overall defense in 2011 and this unit could be even better this year. They return eight starters, including their top two tacklers and top two pass rushers. The Spartans have won 13 straight home openers by an average of 23 points per game. Under Dantonio MSU is 14-1 hosting non-Big Ten opponents. However, they are just 6-13 vs. Top 25 opponents under Dantonio. Boise State returns just five starters on offense and two on defense, but don't sleep on the Broncos. Boise State is 8-1 vs. BCS schools since 2006, 21-1 the last four years in true road games, and 7-2 in road openers. This is the fourth straight year that BSU will open up the season against ranked BCS team.

Saturday, Sept. 1

Northwestern (-1) vs. Syracuse

Northwestern has to replace longtime starting QB Dan Persa. QB Kain Colter steps in after starting three games last year and he gives the Wildcats a dynamic athlete under center. Colter led the team in rushing, tossed six touchdown passes, and caught 43 passes in 2011. This Northwestern defense can't be much worse than it was in 2011, and while there will be more youth throughout the unit, there also should be more talent. Syracuse ranked 90th in total offense a year ago, but the return of senior QB Ryan Nassib (22 touchdowns, 9 interceptions in 2011) should be a big boost for this unit. These two last met in 2009 at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse. It was an offensive shootout that saw 71 total points and 937 total yards in the Orange's three point victory. Syracuse is 2-6 ATS over its last eight games as a home underdog. Northwestern has won seven straight season openers by an average of 19 points per game. The last two years were wins against BCS schools; at Vanderbilt and at Boston College.

Penn State (-6) vs. Ohio

The Bill O'Brien era kicks off, and there are sure to be plenty of stories focusing on the atmosphere around Beaver Stadium after a tumultuous offseason for the Nittany Lions. The Lions will ride emotion and a stout defensive front seven this fall, and they could go further than most think after a brutal offseason. Penn State has just four returning starters on defense and two on offense and lost a lot of depth after players decided to transfer once the NCAA came down with all of the penalties. PSU really struggled to score points last year and it's hard to envision this offense making a huge stride this season. Ohio, meanwhile, is off of a 10-win season that included a Bowl win and the Bobcats are the popular pick as a "BCS-Buster" in 2012. QB Tyler Tettleton returns after tossing 28 touchdowns and rushing for 10 more. The defense should also be strong as eight starters return. Penn State has won 10 straight home openers by an average of 29 points per game. They are also 12-0 at home against non-BCS schools since 2007 with the average score of 41-8. Ohio is 4-10 in road openers (0-8 vs. BCS-schools). Since 1998, the Bobcats are 3-22 on the road against BCS-schools with six straight losses.

Illinois (-10) vs. Western Michigan

The Tim Beckman era begins against a Broncos team that played the Illini tough last year in Champaign. Beckman coached Toledo to a 66-63 victory over Western Michigan last year. When Illinois-WMU met last season, the Illini (-14) thoroughly dominated the Broncos in the statistical category - outgaining WMU by 150 yards - but only won the game by three points. Beckman came over from Toledo, where he coached from 2009-11. Over that span, he matched up with Western Michigan three times, winning each of the last two seasons. Defensively this unit ranked 7th in total yards allowed, 3rd in passing yards allowed, and 15th in points allowed in 2011. UI didn't lose much and this defense still figures to be a stacked unit with seven starters returning. Defensively WMU was pretty terrible last season. They ranked 99th in total yards allowed and 76th in points allowed. They allowed 30+ points in six different occasions last season, including 66 points to the Tim Beckman coached Toledo Rockets. The Illini have won 14 straight home openers by an average of 27 points per game. Western Michigan has lost 17 straight road openers by 24 points per game (all to BCS-schools).

No. 18 Ohio State (-24) vs. Miami (OH)

Urban Meyer coaches his first game for the Buckeyes, who are heavy favorites over the RedHawks. This offense will have a much different look and dual-threat QB Braxton Miller should really reap the benefits. This unit will be much better than last year's version that ranked 105th in yards per game and 81st in points per game. Defensively the Bucks ranked 19th in total D in 2011, and with nine starters back that number could rise into the top-10. Eight of the top 10 tacklers return, along with the entire defensive line and secondary. The RedHawks should be much improved than their 4-8 campaign in 2011. They have nine returning starters on offense including QB Zac Dysert (23 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions). Defensively they lost their top three tacklers from a year ago and they could have a difficult time stopping the speed of Ohio State on Saturday. Ohio State has won 33 straight home openers by 22 points per game. The Buckeyes are also 16-0 vs. the MAC since 2000, with the average winning margin of 25 points per game. Miami is 1-8 SU in its last nine road openers, but they are 4-1 ATS - with covers at Missouri, Florida, at Michigan.

Iowa (-10) vs. Northern Illinois

Hawkeyes fans are sure to pack Chicago's Soldier Field to watch their team take on the Huskies, who went 11-3 and won a Bowl game last season. Iowa returns senior QB James Vandenberg (25 TD & 7 INT in 2011), but has to replace its top RB, top WR, and 3/5 of the offensive line. The defensive unit is in worse shape. This unit struggled a year ago (60th in total defense) and they return just five starters. This would be a popular upset pick if Northern Illinois wasn't replacing seven of 11 starters on its offense that ranked 11th overall in 2011. Iowa is 7-0 against NIU with an average win margin of 31 points per game. The Hawkeyes have won 11 straight season openers, but are 0-3 ATS the last three seasons. Northern Illinois is 2-8 SU but 5-4 ATS its last 10 games against BCS-schools.

Purdue (NL) vs. Eastern Kentucky

Purdue head coach Danny Hope faces his alma mater here, but the FCS Colonels shouldn't be much of a match for what appears to be an improved Purdue squad. Danny Hope repeatedly called this his best Boilers team during the offseason. QB Caleb TerBush is one of eight returning starters on offense, including the top rusher and top receiver. They also get a strong return on defense as seven starters are back. Both units should be much improved from 2011 (offense ranked 72nd and defense ranked 73rd) and this should be an easy win for Purdue. Purdue has won eight straight home openers with the average score of 46-19. It has failed to cover three of the last four, however.

No. 17 Nebraska (-20) vs. Southern Miss

The Huskers don't have a gimme in their opener against the Golden Eagles, who went 12-2 in 2011. But Southern Miss has a new coach and several new starters, including its star QB Austin Davis (30 touchdown passes in 2011). Nebraska returns 15 starters, including QB Martinez, RB Burkhead, and its top three receivers. Martinez is said to have greatly improved his accuracy from 2011, when he completed just 56.2% with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Defensively the Huskers lots its top three playmakers on all three levels. So this unit that ranked 37th overall will have to develop new leaders and playmakers. Southern Miss has dropped seven straight road openers (dropping the last five by 15 points per game), the last win was in 2004 against Nebraska. The Huskers are 26-0 since 1985 in home openers. They've won the last five by an average score of 47-11.

No. 12 Wisconsin (NL) vs. Northern Iowa

Northern Iowa is a good FCS program that won 10 games last season. But the Badgers, who will be debuting new starting quarterback Danny O'Brien, usually make quick work of outmanned opponents at Camp Randall Stadium. The offense might not be as electric as it was the past two seasons, but Heisman finalist Montee Ball is back and they should have no problem putting up big points against UNI. The Badgers have won 16 straight home openers at Camp Randall Stadium by 20 points per game. They are 50-4 straight up and 27-16-1 ATS as a home favorite at home since 2004.

No. 8 Michigan (+13.5) vs. No. 2 Alabama

This game will be played at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Wolverines could plant a big flag for the Big Ten and themselves if they can pull this one off. Michigan senior quarterback Denard Robinson expects to have Michigan in the hunt of a Big Ten title this season and also has his foot in the Heisman race. He'll need a big game against nations reigning top-scoring and top-overall defense from 2011. Alabama did lose its top three defenders, but Nick Saban has built too much depth there to think there will be much of a drop off. Meanwhile, Alabama's offense that returns starting QB AJ McCarron and what could be the top offensive line in the nation will give Michigan's defense a huge early season test. Alabama is 19-2 in its last 21 season openers. Since '99 the National Champion from the previous year is 13-0 with the average win of 45-13 in the season opener. Michigan is 5-1 SU against non-conference BCS opponents the last two seasons, but 0-1 against SEC opponents.

Indiana (NL) vs. Indiana State

The Hoosiers will be attempting to win their first game since September 17 of last year here against FCS Indiana State. Indiana shouldn't go 1-11 again, and they could be dangerous on the offensive side as sophomore QB Roberson improves in the passing game. The top RB and WR return to aid Roberson. And seven starters on defense, along with an influx of junior college transfers. Indiana will be improved, but are still a few years away from contending from a Big Ten title. Indiana is 3-0 against Indiana State, outscoring them 119-10.

College Line Moves - Week 1
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Future Update

USC opened as favorites to win the college football BCS Championship at MGM Resorts, but their odds have actually risen from the opening number of 5/1 up to 11/2 (Bet $100 to win $550) because of liability accumulated elsewhere among the 50 options listed on their future board. The same goes for Alabama, who opened as co-favorites with USC in February, but are now 6/1.

The new favorite is LSU, who opened at 7/1 as the fourth favored team in February, but are now 5/1. Oklahoma was the third choice at 7/1, but has been raised to 8/1.

The movement in odds is in no way an indication of who MGM Resorts thinks will win the title, or that they have shifted an opinion. It's more about what the public is thinking and betting as a whole. While William Hill and the LVH Super Book may have a better theoretic hold on all futures, no book offers a better barometer in Nevada of what the public is thinking than MGM Resorts.

Their mega resorts across the strip with 3,000 to 4,000 rooms at each -- full of churning visitors from all over the world every weekend -- offers a better glimpse at what the masses think than any other sports book. Their massive stretch of properties includes every type of Vegas vacation budget from the Bellagio, Aria, MGM, Mirage and Mandalay Bay to Circus Circus, Luxor, Excalibur, Monte Carlo and New York-New York.

So when it's stated that the bulk of MGM Resorts action through six months of action -- that has driven the price up on the favorites -- has come on Georgia, Oregon, Texas and Michigan, it should be noted that it's a massive accumulation of large and small money from everywhere that no else around sees. The future wagers at the MGM Resort properties could essentially carry them for an entire season in all sports, which is an amenity that every other book in envious of. Other books have seen action on those teams as well, but not in the type of volume they do.

Georgia and Oregon both opened up at 25/1 and have been bet all the way down to 6/1, a big enough move to suggest if either of those two teams win, it will be their worst decision on the board. Georgia was initially the 10th choice to win and Oregon the 11th.

Texas dropped from 35/1 down to 15/1 and Michigan dropped from an opener of 35/1 down to 12/1.

Another Big 10 team that has seen some action has been Wisconsin, who dropped from 50/1 down to 20/1.

Saturday's Moves

Here's a look at some of the Las Vegas line movements for Week 1 action on Saturday. Most sports books have had these lines posted since early August.

The Urban Meyer era gets underway in Columbus and bettors are buying in. Ohio State opened as a 22½-point home favorite against Miami-Ohio and have been bet up to -24 ½ in the last two days.

Nebraska saw some action two weeks ago for its home opener Southern Miss and still has been bet rapidly. The Huskers opened 17-point favorites and are now -20.

Miami (Fl.) saw some heavy sharp action on Monday and Tuesday for its road contest at Boston College. BC opened as a short 1-point favorite, but the action has turned the Hurricanes into 2½-point road favorites.

Iowa has seen a couple of bursts the last two weeks pushing their line quite a bit for their contest against Northern Illinois at Soldier Field. Iowa opened as a 6 ½-points favorite and the line is now -10.

Colorado opened as 5-points favorites against Colorado State for their annual match at Mile High sponsored Field and is now -6½.

Texas has recently been bet up from a 29-point home favorite against Wyoming to -31½.

The public loved USC laying 38-points at home against Hawaii when the line first came out and have been betting the Trojans steady the entire way through Wednesday up to -41½.

Alabama got a surge of action Monday pushing its line against Michigan from -12 up to -14 for the game at Cowboys Stadium.

Rutgers has moved from a 17½-point road favorite at Tulane to -20. The bulk of that action came two weeks ago.

And of course we have Oregon, another large ranked favorite, seeing action going from -35 to -37 at home against Arkansas State.

The trend from last season that sports books hated was that almost every top-10 ranked team covered the spread for the first six weeks. The public had a field day with parlays.

5 NCAAF Line Moves You Should Know
By Jon Campbell
Covers.com

The Sports Club, a Las Vegas-based oddsmaking service that influences lines throughout Nevada and offshore, was one of the first to release its college football lines for Week 1.

Here is a look at where they opened the lines earlier this summer for five games in Week 1 and where the numbers have moved since.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores

Sports Club's Opening line: Vandy +4.5
Current: Vandy +6.5

This line moved to 7 and has dropped to 6 at a few books. Those jumping on Vandy can't resist the temptation of a team that went 9-4 ATS (against the spread) and returning 18 starters - second-most in the SEC behind Tennessee and Florida (19).

Gamecocks RB Marcus Lattimore is also coming off an ACL injury last season and will be wearing a knee brace. Lattimore is 15-1 to win the Heisman Trophy.

Before the Commodores' hype machine gets rolling with too much steam though, keep in mind South Carolina is the second favorite to win the SEC East and Vandy hasn't won a season opener against an SEC opponent since 1988 (Miss St.).

Tennessee Volunteers at N.C. State Wolfpack

Opening line: Tennessee Pk
Current: N.C. State +3

This line was 3.5 as late as Wednesday night, but was bumped back to 3 by Thursday morning. Vols bettors haven't been deterred by the fact that SEC-leading receiver Da'Rick Rogers was booted off the team last week for what he says was due to failed drug tests.

Chalk this move up to conference bias. The SEC has proven it's the most dominant league in the land and the ACC is 0-3 in these Chik-fil-A season openers at the Georgia Dome. North Carolina. State also lost to South Carolina in the 2008 and 2009 openers and the Gamecocks are the only SEC team the Wolfpack has managed to beat since 1994.

San Jose St. Spartans at Stanford Cardinal

Opening line: over/under 57
Current: 51.5

Most books released this one at 53.5 or so and it's since come down a couple of points.

With the departure of Andrew Luck, the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, it looks like the Cardinal offense will lean heavily on running back Stepfan Taylor. For bettors, that means more time ticking off the clock, which makes the under appealing.

Keep in mind though, Stanford racked up a school-record 446 yards rushing in a 65-21 win over Washington last season.

Southern Miss. Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers

Opening line: -17
Current: Nebraska -20.5

Just about every book opened this one at 17 and it's climbed to 20 or higher in recent days. Makes sense. It's tough to bet against a team that has won a national-leading 26 straight openers.

Southern Miss is breaking in a new QB (Chris Campbell) after finishing the season in the Top 20 in points and yards per game last year. Bettors might also be wondering if the Eagles' thoughts are elsewhere for this game with Hurricane Isaac barreling down on their home on the Gulf Coast.

SMU Mustangs at Baylor Bears

Opening line: Baylor -15
Current: Baylor -10

Bettors are fading Baylor like it just lost a Heisman Trophy winner - oh wait, it did. It could also be due to the fact that SMU is coming off a bowl season and Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert is taking control of a balanced offense at QB.

While it's true there's no RG3 for the Bears, 2012 starter Nick Florence is a senior and has experience as the first stringer for Baylor. There should be a packed house in Waco for this one and the Bears have covered the spread in nine straight meetings against SMU going back to 1989.