College Football Week 11 Betting News and Notes

Games to Watch - Week 11
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com

Texas A&M at Alabama

These two schools are forever linked by legendary head coach Paul Bear Bryant and meet for the first time this week as SEC opponents. Alabama is 3-1 all-time against A&M, however the teams have not met since 1988. Personally I will tune in just to see if AJ McCarron has stopped crying yet? Dude, I get that you just drove down the field and beat a very good LSU team on the road to keep your season alive but crying on the bench and being almost inconsolable in that situation was one of the strangest things I've ever seen in football. Where's Tom Hanks when you need him? Anyway, the bigger problem Alabama faces right now is the fact that its defense just gave up 435 yards to Zach Mettenberger and the previously inept LSU offense, and now they have Johnny Manziel and the prolific Texas A&M offense coming to Tuscaloosa. The Aggies over the past six weeks have scored 58 points on Arkansas, 59 on Louisiana Tech, 63 on Auburn and 38 last week on a Mississippi State Bulldogs defense that was previously one of the best in the SEC. There is of course one major catch though, none of those teams have the talent on defense that Alabama has, and the Aggies have been slowed down twice this year against similar SEC defenses in Florida and LSU; and if anyone in the country can game plan and make adjustments in just six days, it is Nick Saban. However, if the same Alabama defense shows up this week that let Mettenberger and LSU move the ball with relative ease against them, they could be in for a long day against the much more talented Johnny Manziel. Alabama has two cupcakes to end the regular season (sorry Auburn fans) so this is the last test they will face before the SEC Championship game, but this game has become much more of a threat to Alabama than it looked to start the season. Can Manziel and the Aggies shock the world and shake up the college football landscape or will the Tide remind everyone why they are the clear cut number one team in the country? Even though they were out gained last week and looked beatable against LSU, Alabama is not surprisingly a 15-point early favorite at home this week against the Aggies.

Oregon State at Stanford

The previously struggling Cardinal offense got the much needed spark it needed when Kevin Hogan, a redshirt freshman replaced senior quarterback Josh Nunes on Saturday and lead Stanford to a 48-0 victory over Colorado. Hogan impressed everyone with not only a cannon for an arm but showed great running ability as well. Then again, that was against arguably the worst team in the country; so how much can you really take from his performance? Cardinal Coach David Shaw won't commit to a starter this week against a very good Oregon State defense, only saying ""There's a chance you might see more than one quarterback, but you'll see a whole lot of Kevin Hogan." The Beavers have been arguably the biggest surprise of the season in college football starting 7-1 and have done so mostly with a very solid defense allowing only 18 points per game. Oregon State has also seen its own share of QB controversy this year with Cody Vaz starting two games for the Beavers while Sean Mannion recovered from left knee surgery. Mannion started the Beavers' first four games and averaged 339 yards passing, but was replaced again after he returned not looking quite as sharp in a 20-17 loss to Washington. While Oregon looks all but unbeatable, this is essentially an elimination game for the Pac-12 North Division as both teams already have one loss but each still has Oregon left on their schedule. Even with the starting quarterback for Stanford still up in the air The Cardinal has opened as a five-point home favorite on The Farm.

Kansas State at TCU

The story of this game, and the rest of the season for that matter is the health of quarterback Collin Klein. The severity of his injury will have a direct effect on not only the Wildcats season but subsequently the National Championship race and the Heisman Trophy race as well. There are conflicting reports all over the place as to not only what the injury is but if and when Klein might return. As good as Barner and Mariota are for Oregon, or Te'o for ND, or even McCarron to a degree for 'Bama, Klein absolutely means more to his team than any other player in college football. Kansas State has a very solid football team, both defensively and surrounding Klein on offense, but make no mistake, he is absolutely the engine that drives the Wildcats. Freshman QB Daniel Sams filled in for Klein and was able to steady the ship long enough for the defense and special teams to take over; but starting this weekend against TCU, if Sams has to take over at QB this is simply not the same Kansas State team. Then again, Bill Snyder is still the head coach there and that man seems to have no problem working football miracles so you never know. TCU comes in with a backup QB of their own every since Casey Pachall entered the Fort Worth police hall of fame. Under the circumstances, freshman Trevone Boykin has been impressive since taking over for Pachell, including a very dramatic come-from-behind double overtime win this weekend against West Virginia. Kansas State either way is a much better team than West Virginia though, and due to the Klein injury there is no line on this game for now. Even if Klein plays this could be a tough road spot for the Wildcats; and if he doesn't this may be the end of the line for the Kansas State dream season.

Florida State at Virginia Tech

Florida State at Virginia Tech (Thursday) - This game made it because the schedule this week is that bad and the Thursday night game has a top 10 ranked team playing, even if it is the ACC. FSU had won 12 straight in the series between 1976 and 2005, but Tech has won two of the last three matchups including a 44-33 win in the 2010 ACC title game. This isn't the same V-Tech team though. Before the season started this looked like a possible ACC Championship preview, however the Hokies have pretty much gone the way of the entire ACC. Meanwhile Florida State ranks 3rd in the country in both points scored and points allowed this year and come in off a bye-week. So the fact that they are a two touchdown road favorite is no real surprise, however this is still Florida State and they like to lay an egg when you least expect it so you may want to watch just in case.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State

West Virginia at Oklahoma State - "The Mullet" vs. "The Man" takes place on Saturday as WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen returns to Stillwater where he was the offensive coordinator for Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy in 2010 before leaving for Morgantown. Not surprisingly both of these schools rank in the top ten nationally in points for, however Oklahoma St at least pretends to play defense allowing a respectable 25 points per game while The Mountaineers come in 119th out of 124 NCAA schools in scoring defense allowing 40 points per game. "The Man" is a home touchdown favorite and while the total is not out yet it's safe to say it will be a very large number.

Penn State at Nebraska

Penn State at Nebraska - Nebraska handed PSU a 17-14 defeat in a game played just days after Joe Paterno's firing last year in State College. This year they meet in Lincoln and The Cornhusker's need another victory to maintain their lead in the Losers Legends Division after a big comeback win last week against Sparty. Nebraska is the highest ranked Big 10 team in the BCS at #16, and was the only one prior to Northwestern creeping in Sunday night. Why does that matter you ask; because The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls. Ladies and gentleman…I present the 2012 Big 10.

Fade Alert - K-State, Louisville
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race, college football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and college basketball tips off a new campaign. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds.

Our focus in the world of college football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten.

As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.

This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing on the regular season road from Game 10 on out are 96-35-1 straight up and 54-66-2 against the spread.

Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Kansas State, Louisville, Notre Dame and Oregon this week.

Week 11 Situations

Kansas State at TCU
Louisville at Syracuse
Notre Dame at Boston College
Oregon at California

Pair them up against an opponent that has some semblance of a defense (allows 24 or fewer PPG on the season) and the shiver in their boots, going 42-31-1 SU and 24-45-1 ATS. The Cardinals and Wildcats will be showing signs of trembling this Saturday.

Bring them in as a favorite or underdog of less than 4 points off a SU/ATS win and it’s time for blindfolds, as these guys are 11-26 ATS.

The bottom line is these teams are at their absolute worst in these games when they take to the road off a SU/ATS conference win from Game 10 out with a perfect record as a favorite or dog of 4 or less points against a foe that allows 24 or fewer PPG provided they’ve won 20 or less of their previous 28 road games. These teams tend to die hard, going 9-9 SU and 2-16 ATS.

Both Kansas State (at TCU) and Louisville (at Syracuse) look to meet their maker this week. Gentlemen, mount your horses…

Great Betting Tidbits for Week 11
By Covers.com

- Air Force is tied atop the MWC at 4-1 and still has a solid shot at winning the conference. The Fly Boys were a 20-1 flier to win the conference before the season - impressive considering they’ve had 21 players make their first college start this year, second most in the nation. They are +9.5 at San Diego St. and are making a cross-country trek after a disappointing loss at Army last week.

- Maryland has more issues than National Geographic right now. Besides being down to their millionth-string QB, the Terps also lost their best defensive player last week – to yet another ACL injury. That’s why they’re +31.5 at Clemmy.

- Inspired or emotionally exhausted? That’s the call you have to make if you’re betting Rutgers this week. The Werblin Recreation Center on campus housed displaced victims of Hurricane Sandy and the Rutgers football team lent a hand while on bye. Rutgers is -17 hosting Army.

- With no Denard Robinson, Michigan is going to a hard-nosed, rushing-style offense that is more suitable to coach Brady Hoke’s liking. It worked brilliantly last week against Minnesota when the Wolverines bowled over the Gophers for a convincing win and cover.

- There are four games with spreads of 30 points or more this week: Clemson -31 vs. Maryland; Arizona -30.5 vs. Colorado; Boise State is -30 (at the Orleans) at Hawaii; BYU is -38.5 vs. Idaho.

- There are four games with over/unders of more than 70 points this week: WVU at Oklahoma State 79; Baylor at Oklahoma 77; Marshall at UAB 74.5; La. Tech at Texas State 71.

- Utah looks like it may have turned a corner on the season. The Utes have won and covered their last two games and are 1.5-point faves at Washington this week. The Utes are the best kickoff return team in the nation, by the way, with 35.33 yards per return.

- Note: there are only 21 teams in the FBS averaging more than 25 yards on kickoff returns. No idea why more teams aren't taking a knee when the ball is kicked into the end zone on kickoffs.

- Northern Illinois is 6-0 SU and ATS against conference opponents this season. Keep in mind for next week when the Huskies face Toledo.

- UMass (0-9) and Southern Miss (0-9) are the only two teams left in the FBS without a straight up win this season. Both are 2-7 against the spread.

- When you’re talking about your QB situation and you’re saying things like, “I’ve spoken to all of them”, you know you’re in trouble. Cincy’s QB situation is so desperate, three guys are competing for the starting job this week in practice. Cincy is a 10.5-point fave at Temple, though Munchie Legaux threw six INTs and completed just 45 percent over his passes over the past three games.

- On that note - Temple's defense has completely fallen apart, allowing 127 points over the past three games. The Owls lost and failed to cover all three, while all three also played over.

- Nose tackle Mike Atkinson out for the season for Boise State with a torn ACL. This is one of those huge injuries for a team that won’t impact the pointspread, but shouldn’t be overlooked by bettors.

- That said, Hawaii coach Norm Chow said of Boise, whom his team plays this week: “We obviously have a tough time matching up physically with Boise State – that’s obvious. Just look at the tape.”

- Clemson is on a six-game streak where the Tigers have won and covered and have scored at least 37 points in each game.

- Minnesota is -3 at Illinois this week. The Gophers were 8.5–point road faves this year to open the season against a bad (but now improving) UNLV squad. The last time Minnesota was favored on the road before that was the season opener in 2009 (-7 at Syracuse). Oddly, the Gophers won both those games in overtime by three points.

- Oregon State is thriving with Cody Vaz under center. The Beavers are 3-0 straight up and ATS in games Vaz has started this season in place of the injured Sean Mannion, who is now out for the season. Vaz is better with ball security than Mannion and has seven touchdowns against just one interception. The Beavs are +4.5 at Stanford this week.

- Favorites went 5-0 ATS in the Pac-12 last week and also in the Big Ten - if you got Nebraska early in the week before the Huskers moved to +1. Faves are now 55-55 ATS in the Pac-12 this year and 51-56-1 in the Big Ten.

Big Ten Report - Week 11
By ASAWins.com

The week's most important matchup takes place in Bloomington, Indiana. Wisconsin travels to face the Hoosiers and the winner has a head-start in the Leaders division race to represent the division in the Big Ten title game. The Badgers are off of a bye week and have to replace their starting quarterback while Indiana is off of a come-from-behind victory over Iowa. ASA analyzes this matchup as well as every other Big Ten matchup in this week's breakdown.

Indiana (+7) vs. Wisconsin

IU: Last week vs. Iowa: W 24-21
UW: Last week - BYE

This is the biggest game in Bloomington in recent memory. The Hoosiers can pull even with Wisconsin and would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for the Leaders Division spot in the Big Ten title game if they can win their third straight conference game. Despite the five losses, the Hoosiers have been in every game they've played. Only one of their five losses was by more than four points. In last week's win over Iowa, Indiana fell behind 14-0 early in the 1st quarter. They battled back, thanks to 406 passing yards from QB's Coffman and Sudfeld, and won 24-21. Coffman and Sudfeld have combined to complete 63% passes this season with 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The defense is getting better, as it has allowed just 31 total points over the past two weeks. They do rank 108th in rush defense, and they'll have to shore that up as one of the nation's premier power-running offenses comes to town.

The Badgers have had two weeks off to try and figure out their new situation as starter Joel Stave will miss the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone. Curt Phillips and Danny O'Brien have been battling it out and coaches haven't indicated who will start; but we anticipate both quarterbacks seeing the field. The Badgers managed just 19 yards on 37 carries in the Badgers last game loss to Michigan State two weeks ago. RB's Ball and White look to get back on track against this porous Indiana rush-defense. Defensively this will be the best passing attack that Wisconsin has faced thus far. The Badgers pass-defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete just 55% this season, but they've surrendered 15 touchdown passes with just four interceptions. Still, this unit hasn't surrendered more than 16 points in the last four games.

Recent history: Wisconsin has won seven straight in this series by an average of 33.5 points and is 5-1 ATS over the past six. Last year the Badgers piled up 332 rush yards in a 59-7 win. Wisco has scored 83 and 59 points in back-to-back wins over the Hoosiers.

Trends: Wisconsin is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as a Big Ten road favorite. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. The last five times these two have met the score has gone 'over' the total.

Injury report: Badgers' star LT Rick Wagner is poised to return to the starting lineup after missing two weeks with a right knee injury.

Nebraska (-7) vs. Penn State

UN: Last week at Michigan State: W 28-24
PSU: Last week at Purdue: W 34-9

The Huskers are in first place in the Legends division, but they can't clinch title yet.
For the second consecutive road game, Nebraska faced a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter. And once again, the Huskers found a way to win. QB Taylor Martinez overcame three turnovers to fire the game-winning touchdown pass with six seconds remaining. He also led Nebraska with 205 rush yards and two scores. Overall the Huskers tallied 313 rush yards on a 7.8 YPC average while the defense limited MSU QB Maxwell to just 9-of-27 completions. They'll try to avoid a "hangover" after that big road win and get another quality win over the Nittany Lions.

Penn State isn't eligible for the Big Ten championship or any bowl, so they will play spoiler in both division races. Chances are the Nittany Lions will have an impact on the races with this game and remaining ones against both Indiana and Wisconsin. The Lions bounced back well from their first Big Ten loss two weeks ago with a big win at Purdue last Saturday. PSU was dominant on both sides of the ball, racking up 506 total yards and 25 first downs. QB McGloin passed for over 300 yards with two touchdowns and RB Zwinak ran for 134 yards. The defensive unit held Purdue to just 87 rush yards on a 3.3 YPC average and nine total points (Purdue scored a meaningless touchdown in the final seconds). Penn State is 3-0 in Big Ten road games so far, winning by an average score of 36-10.

Recent history: Last year Penn State faced Nebraska in the first game in over 40 years without head coach Joe Paterno. The Nittany Lions put together a valiant effort, but Nebraksa won 17-14 at home. No doubt PSU will be motivated to avenge that loss with a big home win on Saturday.

Trends: Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in its last five home games.

Injury report: Penn State DT Jordan Hill and TE Kyle Carter are both day-to-day for this week's game at Nebraska, coach Bill O'Brien said. RB Curtis Dukes is out for the Nebraska game.

Michigan (-11) vs. Northwestern

UM: Last week at Minnesota: W 35-13
NU: Last week - BYE

The loser of this game is all but eliminated from the Legends division. Michigan did just fine last week without QB Robinson in the lineup. The Wolves started a little slow, leading just 14-7 at halftime over Minnesota. But backup QB Devin Gardner passed for 234 yards and two scores while adding a rushing touchdown - leading the Wolves to a 35-13 victory. Defensively Michigan frustrated Minnesota's freshman QB and also held the Gophers to just 3.3 YPC rushing. Michigan ranks 1st nationally against the pass this season, but they've been vulnerable to strong rushing attacks. Northwestern brings one of the top rushing offenses to town this weekend.

Northwestern has seemingly settled on QB Kain Colter as the full-time option after Siemian didn't get much playing time last game. Northwestern had a huge day offensively against the Hawkeyes two weeks ago. The Wildcats controlled the ball with 49 rushing attempts for 349 yards (7.1 YPC). QB Colter and RB Mark each topped 160 rush yards while the defense held Iowa to just 17 points.

Recent history: Michigan is 6-1 straight-up against the Wildcats the last seven meetings. Northwestern's one victory over that span was in the Big House in 2010. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Last season the Wolverines tallied 541 total yards in the 42-24 victory over the Wildcats. QB Robinson accounted for 454 and four touchdowns alone in that game.

Trends: Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games. Michigan is just 10-26 ATS in its last 36 conference games. The final score has remained 'under' the total in four of the last five meetings.

Injury report: Brady Hoke hasn't stated whether or not QB Robinson will play this weekend. Hoke only indicated that he's "getting healthier." Northwestern hopes to regain the services of injured defensive backs Nick VanHoose and Quinn Evans, who are both questionable for this game.

Illinois (+3) vs. Minnesota

UI: Last week at Ohio State: L 22-52
UM: Last week vs. Michigan: L 13-35

Minnesota can gain postseason eligibility for the first time since 2009 with a win here over the Illini. The Gophers are off of a disappointing loss against Michigan where they failed to capitalize on a Robinson-less Wolverine squad. Minnesota squandered numerous chances in the red-zone and couldn't stop Michigan's back-up QB. The good news is that it was another promising start for freshman quarterback Philip Nelson, who passed for 142 yards and one touchdown. The defense will try to get back on track this week against a hapless Illinois offense.

Illinois is officially not going bowling this postseason after its seventh loss of the season last week to Ohio State. The Illini were only losing 6-7 at the end of the first quarter to OSU, but by halftime it was 31-6. The offense managed just 170 total yards, 2.3 yards per carry, and QB Scheelhaase completed 19 passes for 96 yards. Defensively Illinois allowed an astonishing 567 yards and 32 first downs. This D unit actually features a lot of talent, but it hasn't stood a chance in most games this season because their offense can't stay on the field.

Recent history: Minnesota has won its last three trips to Champaign (3-0 ATS) and is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. Minnesota held Illinois to just 160 yards and 11 first downs in last year's 27-7 victory in Minneapolis. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Trends: Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games. Illinois is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 conference games. The Illini have failed to cover six straight games overall.

Injury report: Illinois LB Jonathan Brown is out for Saturday's game against Minnesota, coach Tim Beckman confirmed. Brown was an all-Big Ten player in 2011 who is tied for the team lead in tackles and leads the team in tackles for loss. Minnesota WR A.J. Barker is doubtful for the Illinois game. Barker is the Gophers' top receiver with 577 yards & 7 TD's.

Iowa (-5) vs. Purdue

UI: Last week at Indiana: L 21-24
PU: Last week vs. Penn State: L 9-34

Talk about a matchup of two teams that could really use a win. The Boilers have been in a five-week tailspin that might well cost head coach Danny Hope his job. All but one of those losses was by 16+ points and all five were by an average of 21 PPG. Purdue still has a glimmer of hope for a bowl if they win out this season, but things definitely aren't looking up. The defense has allowed an average of 38 points per game over the last six games and offensively the quarterbacks are stalling everything. The trio of TerBush, Marve, and Henry hasn't gotten things done. The Boilers might actually be happy they're on the road this week after the stands at Ross-Ade stadium were mostly empty last Saturday.

Iowa has lost three straight in disheartening fashion after a promising 2-0 start in league play. The Hawkeyes still have a chance to get to a bowl but must win here and then upset either Michigan on the road or Nebraska at home - so chances are pretty slim. The Hawkeyes' loss last week slipped them below .500 for the first time since 2007. Despite a 14-0 start at Indiana in the first seven minutes, the Hawkeyes managed just seven points the rest of the way in the 21-24 loss. QB Vandenberg continued to struggle with just one touchdown and a bad interception in the end-zone. The defense also allowed over 400 yards passing with three touchdowns.

Recent history: Iowa is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the previous six meetings. Iowa has also won six straight meetings at home and is 4-2 ATS in those games. The Hawks won 31-21 at Purdue last season. QB Vandenberg tossed three touchdowns and Iowa tallied 135 rush yards.

Trends: Purdue is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. The Boilermakers are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Iowa is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. The Hawkeyes are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games.

Injury report: Iowa likely will be without RB Mark Weisman for the second straight game Saturday against Purdue. Purdue WR O.J. Ross likely will play this week against Illinois while RB Raheem Mostert and DT Brandon Taylor are doubtful.

Ohio State - BYE

OSU: Last week vs. Illinois: W 52-22

OSU has won ten straight, who get a well-deserved bye after thumping Illinois last week. Ohio State is 10-0 for the first time since 2007 as it chases its first perfect season since 2002, when it captured a national title. Ohio State has scored 52 points or more in three Big Ten games. QB Miller and RB Hyde form the Big Ten's most dangerous backfield and the defense continues to make big plays.

Michigan State - BYE

MSU: Last week vs. Nebraska: L 24-28

The Spartans suffered another devastating setback Saturday after having Nebraska on the ropes. MSU's last four losses this season have been by four points or fewer and offensive deficiencies can be to blame. The Spartans have one of the game's elite defenses and a porous passing attack is really holding them back. RB Bell had another big day with 188 yards and two scores, but QB Andrew Maxwell had another rough day (9-of-27 passing). Msu still needs another win to become bowl eligible.

CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Texas A&M at Alabama

Crimson Tide face FCS Western Carolina (1-9) and struggling rival Auburn (2-7) to end the regular season so this is the last true test before the SEC Championship game. Alabama's defense shredded for 435 yards by LSU last week had better show up this week. The Aggies and talented Johnny Manziel are averaging 44.7 points/game on 559.6 total yards and head into Bryant-Denny Stadium on a two-game winning streak including their first-ever SEC road win against Bulldogs (38-13). Can Manziel and company shock 'Bama' and shake up the college football landscape ? Probably not. Tide are on an awesome 30-2 SU stretch on home field. Can Johnny Football keep it within two scores ? Only time will tell but it's hard to ignore Alabama's profitable 14-6 ATS record laying double digits and it's 11-3 ATS streak laying 10 or more within the SEC. As for Aggies, they're 3-3 ATS since moving to the conference, a cash draining 5-13 ATS L19 vs SEC opponents.

NCAA Football System of the Week
By Cajun Sports
Playbook.com

Fading Fortune

The college football season enters week 11 and is nearing the finish line of another outstanding season. Here we go with our NCAA Football System of the Week.

Last week the Texas Longhorns went on the road to Lubbock to face off against Big 12 rival Texas Tech Red Raiders. The oddsmakers gave the Longhorns little chance of coming away with a victory as they were installed as six-point road underdogs. Someone failed to inform the Longhorns of this fact and they proceeded to roll past Texas Tech 31 to 22.

This week our research looks at teams who pulled off a big upset victory against a conference rival on the road. With that in mind, we queried our database in search of possible winning situations that fit those parameters.

In doing so, we found that teams who pulled off an upset against a conference rival on the road struggled the following week with a major letdown especially if they had their bye week on deck. Several key situations with those parameters showed promise but the one that really stood out was the one below, which became our college system of the week for this week.

In Games, 2-10, play AGAINST a favorite of less than twenty-eight points with less than ten days rest coming off a conference road straight up win as an underdog of more than four-points and before seven days of rest. This powerful system has produced a record of 25-0-1 ATS since 1997 covering the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game over that span.

The Longhorns appear to have turned their season around entering today’s matchup riding a three-game winning streak. They may be able to get a win here but our system says they will have a hard time covering the spread against the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday at the time of this writing they are 10.5-point favorites over Iowa State.

With all the systems parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week recommends a play against the Texas Longhorns in their game against the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday in Austin. Take the points with the Cyclones.

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 11
By Covers.com

If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grab the best quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 11 of the season.

(10) FSU at Virginia Tech (13.5, 50)

Florida State throttled Duke 48-7 prior to taking a week off. Now, the Seminoles need to win their final two conference games to secure a berth in the ACC Championship game and a shot at their first BCS bowl appearance since 2005. FSU is the only team in the nation ranked in the top 10 in offense (seventh, 524.5 yards per game) and defense (first, 227.1). The Hokies have lost two straight and four of their last five after a forgettable showing against Miami. The schools have played over the total in their last four meetings.

(24) Northwestern at Michigan (-11.5, 52.5)

Northwestern and Michigan likely need to win out and get some help to overtake Nebraska in the Big Ten Legends Division. Wolverines’ coach Brady Hoke appears encouraged by the recovery of QB Denard Robinson, who sat out against Minnesota because of an ulnar nerve injury. Devin Gardner threw for 234 yards and two scores last week and will be ready to go if Robinson can’t suit up. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Army at (23) Rutgers (-17, 51.5)

Rutgers will face three straight Big East opponents in 13 days after Saturday's game - with a home date versus Louisville to potentially decide first place in the conference. So, don't be surprised if the Scarlet Knights rest many of their starters if they jump out to a big lead. Army's bread and butter comes from its running game as it boasts an FBS-best 375.4 rushing yards per contest. But the road hasn't been kind for Army, which has dropped nine straight such contests. The Black Knights are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings.

(9) Louisville at Syracuse (3, 58)

The Cardinals are looking for their first 10-win season since the glory days of Bobby Petrino in 2006, when they last made a BCS bowl. The Orange should take aim at Louisville’s suspect rushing defense with junior Jerome Smith, who has racked up over 100 yards rushing in each of the last three contests. The Louisville defense has surrendered an average of 148 yards on the ground and more than 22 points per game. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Iowa State at (17) Texas (-10.5, 57)

The Longhorns have forced 14 turnovers and committed eight, which is tied for the seventh-fewest in the country. Texas has turned those mistakes into points, outscoring the opposition 77-10 off turnovers. The Longhorns have won eight of the last nine meetings, but the road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six clashes.

Arkansas at (8) South Carolina (-14, 52.5)

South Carolina had an off week to adjust to life without star RB Marcus Lattimore, who is done for the year with a knee injury. Running backs Kenny Miles and Mike Davis have 66 carries between them this season and will have to carry the load with Lattimore out. The Hogs will be short-handed at linebacker after starter Terrell Williams was suspended indefinitely following his DUI arrest Sunday. The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Kansas at (22) Texas Tech (-25.5, 59)

The Jayhawks have lost 20 straight road games, including a 41-14 setback at Baylor last week and 18 in a row overall in the Big 12. Fifteen of Kansas' 20 consecutive road losses have been by double digits and seven have been by 40 or more points. Texas Tech signal-caller Seth Doege leads all FBS QBs with 31 touchdowns, is fifth in the nation at 318.8 yards per game through the air and eighth in completion percentage (69.3). The under is 5-1 in Texas Tech’s last six home games.

UL Lafayette at (6) Florida (-26.5, 50.5)

The Ragin’ Cajuns need a win Saturday to become bowl eligible and have an offense that can put up points led by QB Terrance Broadway. But Louisiana-Lafayette has never faced a defense like Florida’s, which ranks fourth in the nation in points allowed (12.1). The Gators are 4-0 all-time against the Rajin’ Cajuns and have won those contests by an average of 42.8 points. Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Sun Belt opponents.

(11) Oregon State at (14) Stanford (-4, 44.5)

Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan will make his first start at QB when Stanford hosts Oregon State on Saturday in a critical Pac-12 North showdown. Hogan earned the nod at QB over Josh Nunes after passing for 184 yards and two touchdowns against the Buffaloes. Oregon State QB Cody Vaz is set to make his second straight start in place of Sean Mannion, who lost the job after throwing four interceptions two weeks ago in a loss to Washington. With Stanford and Oregon State ranked in the nation’s top 20 in scoring defense, this game figures to be a low-scoring contest. The Beavers are 3-1 on the road this season, while Stanford has won seven straight home games and 18 of its last 19.

Arizona State at (19) USC (-9, 65.5)

Southern California's defense was non-existent last week against Oregon, allowing a school-record 730 yards in a 62-51 defeat. The Trojans have lost two straight games, but their offense (36.8 PPG) hasn’t been the problem. Arizona State snapped a streak of 11 straight losses to Southern California last year in Tempe with a 43-22 rout over the Trojans. The Sun Devils have shut out six teams in the fourth quarter this season and outscored opponents 102-24 in the final period. Arizona State is also 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with the Trojans.

Penn State at (16) Nebraska (-7.5, 52.5)

Four victories in five Big Ten games have vaulted Nebraska to a first-place tie in the Legends Division. The Cornhuskers average 269.6 rushing yards and are scoring 29.6 points in conference play, but have surrendered an average of 30.2 points per game in their past five contests. Nobody was sure how Penn State would fare this season in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky scandal, but the Nittany Lions have been one of the nation’s big surprises. Penn State beat Purdue last week and has won six of seven since a 0-2 start. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Maryland at (13) Clemson (-31.5, 55.5)

Clemson isn't expected to have much trouble with the Terrapins, who have lost four quarterbacks to season-ending injuries. The Terrapins were forced to start freshman LB Shawn Petty at QB in their 33-13 loss to Georgia Tech last week. Maryland's injury epidemic jumped over to the defensive side of the ball in the loss when senior LB Demetrius Hartsfield tore his ACL, ending his season. The loss is significant as Hartsfield leads the team with 78 tackles. Clemson is seventh in the nation at 42.7 points per game. But running back Andre Ellington, second in the ACC with 780 rushing yards, is questionable after injuring his hamstring against Duke. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.

Baylor at (12) Oklahoma (-21.5, 78.5)

Oklahoma is allowing a conference-best 17.8 points and league-low 312.9 yards per contest, but both will be put to the test against high-octane Baylor. Baylor's passing offense ranks first nationally at 392.1 yards per game, but its defense is yielding 527.3 yards - also the most in the nation. Sooners RB Damien Williams (ankle) was limited during last week's game against Iowa State and is questionable to play Saturday. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Oklahoma.

(15) Texas A&M at (1) Alabama (-14, 56.5)

Alabama won its first eight games by an average of 32.5 points before needing a late touchdown pass from A.J. McCarron to pull out a 21-17 win at LSU last
week. The Crimson Tide's vaunted defense gave up big chunks of yardage on the ground and through the air against LSU, and it will face a major challenge against the Aggies and freshman QB Johnny Manziel. Coach Kevin Sumlin's offense, led by Manziel, has averaged 559.6 total yards, which is on pace to break the SEC record of 534.4 set by Florida in 1995. The Aggies rank fifth in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring (44.67). Alabama is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.

(2) Kansas State at TCU (7.5, 60)

Wildcats QB Collin Klein was knocked out of last week's win over Oklahoma State with a head injury. Kansas State coach Bill Snyder on Tuesday said he was hopeful his star QB would be able to start Saturday's game at Texas Christian. Klein's mother took it a step further, telling ESPN that her son "feels great" and she expected him to be "100 percent." TCU is coming off a huge double-overtime victory at West Virginia and is 3-0 in its last three games against teams ranked in the top five. The Wildcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.

(20) Louisiana Tech at Texas State (20, 71)

The Bulldogs continued their record-breaking season last weekend with a 51-27 victory over Texas-San Antonio – the seventh time they have eclipsed 50 points and fifth consecutive game in which they posted more than 500 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs continue to win by impressive margins thanks primarily to the nation’s third-best turnover differential (plus-1.89), allowing the country's third-ranked offense to shine. Texas State has been outscored 161-58 in four losses against teams with winning records in 2012. The Bulldogs have played over the total in eight of their last nine games overall.

(5) Georgia at Auburn (16, 51.5)

Georgia will earn its second straight trip to the SEC Championship Game by winning at Auburn on Saturday night. And the Bulldogs enter hot after forcing nine turnovers in the past two weeks holding Florida and Ole Miss to 19 total points. Tigers freshman QB Jonathan Wallace will make his second start after leading the Tigers to a 42-7 victory over New Mexico State last week. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

(21) Mississippi State at (7) LSU (-14.5, 43.5)

Although the Tigers' BCS title hopes dissolved with the Crimson Tide's winning drive in the final minute last Saturday night, LSU did enjoy its best offensive game of the season - against Alabama's dominant defense, no less. The Tiger offense gained 435 yards against Nick Saban's pride and joy, including 257 in the second half alone as the Tigers turned a 14-3 halftime deficit into a 17-14 lead early in the fourth quarter. The Mississippi State stop unit has been shredded for 38 points in back-to-back games to Alabama and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

(4) Notre Dame at Boston College (18.5, 47.5)

Notre Dame allowed a season-high 20 points in last week’s victory over Pittsburgh, despite limiting the Panthers to 308 yards and 13 first downs. The Fighting Irish have not won by more than seven points in five games played on their campus, but their average margin of victory is 28 points in their four contests away from home this season. Boston College (2-7) owns the worst record in the ACC and has a beleaguered defense that has allowed five opponents to score at least 34 points this season. The Eagles are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

(3) Oregon at California (28, 67.5)

The Golden Bears have held four of their last five opponents to 21 or fewer points. But Cal has sustained significant losses on offense due to a pair of knee injuries. Starting QB Zach Maynard and WR Keenan Allen will both be sidelined Saturday. Oregon leads the nation in scoring at 54.3 points per game and has scored 42 or more points in each of its last 12 outings. The Ducks are looking for their 14th consecutive road victory and have covered the spread in their last four overall.

(18) UCLA at Washington State (14.5, 60.5)

Game-time temperatures are forecast to be below freezing so maybe the weather could help slow down the Bruins, who have scored 111 points in their last two games. Washington State is winless in the Pac-12 and recently had its top player - WR Marquess Wilson - suspended for walking out on a team workout. The Cougars have lost six straight and will surely miss the conference’s leader in receiving yards. The Bruins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

ACC Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

It's Week 11, and thankfully I was able to get back on track with my ACC plays. I sat in chilly conditions at Wallace Wade Stadium with my Clemson buddy Matt, watching the Tigers offense move the ball up and down the field. It was also my guaranteed play of the weekend, so even though I was clad in my Duke blue, I can't say I was terribly disappointed.

Notre Dame at Boston College

In future years when Notre Dame joins the ACC for all sports except for football, this game would count against their five-team requirement for the football schedule. Over the years, BC has been a thorn in the side of the Irish. When things have been good, average or bad in the past, the Eagles have really stepped up against the gold-domers. It might officially be considered their bowl game this season, especially since they were eliminated from bowl contention with a loss last week. An upset this time around would send shockwaves throughout the college football world. Notre Dame is just 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games in the month of November. BC has not been much better, though, going 5-13 ATS in their past 18 home games, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall. In addition, the dog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, but the road team is also 7-2 ATS in the span. So it might be a good idea to shy away from the spread. All signs appear to point to the under for the total. The under is 6-1-1 in ND's past eight road games, and 13-3 in their past 16 against the ACC. The under is 5-1 in BC's past six against Independents, 11-4 in their past 15 home games, and 34-16-1 in their past 51 overall. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time.

Maryland at Clemson

This game has the potential to be a real beatdown, as no one except for Florida State has been able to slow the Clemson offense. The Terps are just 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games overall, and a dismal 2-9 ATS in their past 11 ACC contests. In addition, they are 0-5 ATS in the month of November, including a loss last week against Ga. Tech. Clemson, meanwhile, has covered six straight games, and they are 5-1 ATS in the past six against a team with a losing record. In this series, though, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, and Maryland is 5-1 ATS in their past six visits to Clemson. However, that can mostly be thrown out the window, because those Maryland squads weren't likely using a linebacker at the quarterback position after losing their first three signal callers to season-ending injuries. Like the ND-BC game above, the under might be the play. The under is 5-0 in five straight meetings in this series at Clemson, and 10-2 in the past 12 meetings overall.

Wake Forest at North Carolina State

North Carolina State was embarrassed last weekend against ACC doormat Virginia at home, leading some Wolfpack faithful to howl for the dismissal of head coach Tom O'Brien. A loss this weekend, and it might punch his ticket to the unemployment line. Both of these teams come in searching for their sixth win of the season, so someone is going to finish the day eligible for one of the ACC's bowl bids. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in the past five road games, but just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a winning record. N.C. State is now just 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. They've been a hard team to figure, as they were good enough to nip Florida State, but then lose to Virginia. The home team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings, but Wake is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. It might be a good idea to get your action elsewhere, or just flip a coin.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina

The Tar Heels have been on a roll, covering seven straight games at Kenan Stadium. They are also a solid 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record. The Jackets haven't had a lot of success this season, going 2-6 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. They are also 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games following a bye week. The over has cashed in six of Ga. Tech's past seven games, and is 4-1 in their past five ACC games. The over is also 6-1 in UNC's past seven home games, and 4-1 in their past five overall. However, the under has cashed in four of the past five meetings between these sides in Chapel Hill.

Miami at Virginia

The Hurricanes blow into Charlottesville looking to continue their solid play. They blasted Virginia Tech last Thursday night at home, covering for the sixth straight conference game. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. In addition, Miami is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games, so they might be a very solid play in this one. Virginia stunned N.C. State on the road in Raleigh last week, piling up a huge lead and winning in surprising fashion. While Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their past five games in the month of November, the Cavaliers are just 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games, 1-8-1 ATS in their past 10 games on grass, and 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 games overall. In addition, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six games at Scott Stadium.

Pac-12 Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Oregon State at Stanford

This game has taken on a different look than it would have had in past weeks. The Oregon State Beavers turn to QB Cody Vaz for a second straight game, as he gets the nod over Sean Mannion (knee), who is not quite 100 percent. Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan gets the start over Josh Nunes, based mostly on performance. Hogan passed for 183 yards and two touchdowns, while giving the Cardinal an added dimension with his tremendous escapability in the pocket. Of course, that success came against an awful Colorado team, not a nationally-ranked and dangerous Oregon State club. Stanford is 5-0 at home this season, and they lead the Pac-12 with a plus-11 turnover margin. The Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Stanford is 14-5-1 ATS in their past 20 Pac-12 games, and 22-10 ATS in their past 32 in Palo Alto, so something has to give. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. However, the under might be the best play here. The under has cashed in four of Oregon State's past five games following an ATS win, and the under is 4-0 in the past four for Stanford overall, and 5-1 in their past six conference games. In this series, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings, and 4-1 in the past five meetings in Palo Alto.

Arizona State at Southern California

The Trojans limp into this game losers of two straight, and the Sun Devils would just love to help add to their woes while becoming bowl eligible with a signature win. USC has failed to cover in four of their past five games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games against a team with a winning record. In addition, USC is 0-4 ATS at the Coliseum against a visiting team with a winning record. For AZ State, they haven't had much more success. While they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, they are 3-7 ATS in the past 10 Pac-12 games, and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight road games. In addition, they are also 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. The Sun Devils are also 9-24-2 ATS in their past 35 road contests against a team with a winning home record. This game screams stay away.

Utah at Washington

Utah has turned it around lately, at least for bettors. The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their past five games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games. However, Washington has been equally impressive, especially at home, registering wins against Top 10 opponents (at the time) Stanford and Oregon State. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a losing record. U-Dub is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games overall. However, the under is what really might draw the eye of bettors. The under has cashed in four straight roadies for Utah, and the under is 9-4 in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. For Washington, the under has cashed in six straight games in Seattle, and is 6-2 in their past eight overall. The under is also 5-2 in their past seven conference clashes.

UCLA at Washington State

The UCLA Bruins have been a bit of a tease this season. Just when you think they have it going in the right direction and they should roll over an opponent on their schedule, they falter. It happened against Oregon State earlier this season, although the Beavers turned out to be no slouch. But then it happened again at Cal a few weeks ago, and they were rolled - badly. UCLA is just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 games, so a trip to the Palouse might not be the fuel this team needs to keep going. The Cougs are still trying to find some consistency, and they are ineligible for a bowl following their seventh loss last time out. However, they are 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 games following an ATS loss, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. In addition, they are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games in Pullman against a team with a winning record. If you need further push to pick WaZu, consider the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight matchups in this series. The Bruins are also 2-9 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and just 1-6 ATS in their past seven meetings at Washington State.

Oregon at California

The high-flying Ducks take their show on the road to Berkeley this weekend. While it is widely expected they will win, and win handily, a cover might not necessarily be a given. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. Of course, that featured some much better Bears teams. Cal is just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. In addition, Jeff Tedford's group is just 1-5 ATS in their past six home games, one spanking of UCLA last month was the lone exception. The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their past four games, 6-0 ATS in their past six games on grass, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven games overall. They have also covered in four straight Pac-12 games. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time, but are you brave enough to bet an under in an Oregon game? The over has cashed in 23 of Oregon's past 31 conference games, and is 35-17 in their past 52 games overall.

Colorado at Arizona

The Buffaloes have been downright abysmal this season, and they likely can't wait for this nightmare season to end. Colorado is 5-17 ATS in their past 22 games against a team with a winning record, so it isn't just this season that they have struggled. They are 6-20 ATS in their past 26 conference games, and they are a dismal 1-12 ATS in their past 13 games on a grass surface. On the other side, Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six games against a team with a losing record. The over might be a better play, as the over has come through in 21 of Colorado's past 30 games in the month of November. The over has cashed in five straight games for Arizona, and is 4-0 in their past four games in Tucson. The over is also 16-5 in Arizona's past 21 Pac-12 skirmishes.

Oregon State at Stanford: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Oregon State at Stanford (-5, 44.5)

Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan will make his first start at quarterback when No. 15 Stanford hosts No. 12 Oregon State on Saturday in a critical Pac-12 North showdown. The teams are tied for second with 5-1 records, and both play first-place Oregon in the next two weeks. With Stanford and Oregon State ranked in the nation’s top 20 in scoring defense, the game figures to be a low-scoring contest. Stanford is hoping a change in quarterback improves its passing offense, which ranks ninth in the Pac-12. At Oregon State, quarterback Cody Vaz is set to make his second straight start in place of Sean Mannion, who lost the job after throwing four interceptions two weeks ago in a loss to Washington. The Beavers are 3-1 on the road this season, while Stanford has won seven straight home games and 18 of its last 19.

LINE: Stanford -5, O/U 44.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the NNW at 8 mph.

ABOUT OREGON STATE (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12): The Beavers are 7-1 for the first time since 2000, and are second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense behind Stanford. Senior cornerback Jordan Poyer, who leads the Beavers with five interceptions, is expected to play after missing last Saturday’s 36-26 victory over Arizona State with a knee injury. Terron Ward rushed for a career-high 146 yards last week, but rushing yards figure to be at a premium with Stanford ranked No. 1 and Oregon State No. 5 in the nation in run defense. Leading rusher Storm Woods (knee) is expected to return Saturday after sitting out last week.

ABOUT STANFORD (7-2, 5-1): The Cardinal are allowing only 16.6 points per game, and their defense has held the last three opponents to a combined minus-36 rushing yards. Stanford's pass defense ranks 10th in the conference, but safety Ed Reynolds recorded his third interception return for a touchdown during last week’s 48-0 victory over Colorado. Stepfan Taylor ranks fourth in the Pac-12 in rushing and is 53 yards away from reaching 1,000 yards for the third season in his career. Hogan gets the start at quarterback over Josh Nunes after passing for 184 yards and two touchdowns and running seven times for 48 yards against the Buffaloes.

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-0 in Stanford’s last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Stanford has won the last two games against Oregon State and three of the previous four, including last season’s 38-13 victory in Corvallis.

2. Oregon State is 51-3 since the start of the 2004 season when leading after three quarters.

3. Stanford leads the conference in turnover margin at plus-11.

Texas A&M at Alabama: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Texas A&M at Alabama (-13.5, 57)

Top-ranked Alabama dodged a major bullet in its national title defense last week, but the Crimson Tide face another tough test Saturday with No. 14 Texas A&M traveling to Tuscaloosa for the first time. The teams are meeting for the first time since 1988; Alabama has won three of four previous meetings. The Crimson Tide can clinch the SEC West title by beating the Aggies or by winning their Iron Bowl matchup with Auburn on Nov. 24. Texas A&M would have to beat Alabama and Missouri (Nov. 23) and also have the Crimson Tide lose to Auburn to make its way to the SEC Championship Game.

That's a far-fetched scenario for the Aggies, not least of all because it involves knocking off the Crimson Tide. Alabama won its first eight games by an average of 32.5 points before needing a late touchdown pass from A.J. McCarron to pull out a 21-17 win at LSU last week. The Crimson Tide's vaunted defense did give up big chunks of yardage on the ground and through the air against LSU, and it will face a major challenge against the Aggies and freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel.

LINE: Alabama -13.5, O/U 57.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with clear skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (7-2, 4-2 SEC): The Aggies have proven they can compete with the SEC's powers in their first year in the league - their only losses were 20-17 vs. Florida and 24-19 vs. LSU - but this is their last chance to knock off one of the conference's elite teams. Coach Kevin Sumlin's offense, led by Manziel, has averaged 559.6 total yards, which is on pace to break the SEC record of 534.4 set by Florida in 1995. The Aggies rank fifth in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring (44.67).

ABOUT ALABAMA (9-0, 6-0): The Crimson Tide looked vulnerable for the first time this season against LSU, but McCarron and the offense were up to the task down the stretch. The defense likely will face its biggest test yet, but Alabama has the athletes to contain Manziel much like LSU did. Alabama also has a weapon in senior Jeremy Shelley, the only kicker in the nation who has not missed an extra point or field goal this season. Shelley is 43-for-43 on PATs and has made all nine of his field goal attempts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 3-0-1 in Crimson Tide’s last four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Aggies’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.
* Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.
* Crimson Tide is 1-5 ATS in its last six November games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Alabama and Louisiana Tech are the only teams in the nation that have not thrown an interception this season. McCarron has thrown a school-record 289 passes without a pick.

2. Texas A&M has scored first in every game this season and 14 straight dating to 2011. The Aggies have scored on seven of nine opening drives this year.

3. Alabama has scored in 151 consecutive games, the longest streak in program history.

NCAAF Week 11

8-2 Northwestern led 14-10 at halftime in both its losses this year; they were outscored 48-28 in second half of those games. Michigan showed renewed spark in passing game with Gardner getting first start under center (12-18/234 after 23-65/256 in previous two games combined). Wildcats are 2-9 in last 11 series games but covered three of last four, despite last seven series losses being by 12+ points- they’ve lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Wolverines are 6-4 as home favorite under Hoke, 2-2 this year; they’ve allowed total of 23 points in last three home games. Since 2003, Northwestern is 11-3 vs spread as a road underdog. Last three Wildcat games, five of last six Michigan games stayed under the total. Big Dozen home favorites are 12-10 vs spread this year.

Well-coached Wake Forest covered four of five games with single digit spread this year. Home side won five in row and 14 of last 16 Wake Forest-NC State games; Deacons lost last two visits here, 38-3/21-17. 5-4 Wake is at Notre Dame next week and has Vandy after that, still needs win to be bowl eligible; they covered six of last nine tries as road underdogs (2-1 in ’12). Wolfpack got crushed 33-6 at home by 9.5-point underdog Virginia last week, after Tar Heels stung them in last minute week, before, so State is reeling, turning ball over nine times in those two games (-6, -7 for season)- in last four games, they’ve run ball 108 times for measly 205 yards (that includes sacks). Last four Wake Forest games and five of last seven State games stayed under the total. ACC home favorites are 14-8 vs spread in conference play.

9-0 Louisville won three in row, six of last eight games vs Syracuse, winning three of last four visits here (only loss was in ’08, as 13-point favorites); Cardinals have road wins at FIU (28-21), winless Southern Miss (21-17 in monsoon), Pitt (45-35)- five of their nine wins are by 7 or less points, but they have excellent QB’s which means lot in close games. Orangemen are 3-1 at home, losing by point to 8-2 Northwestern in season opener; they’ve run ball for 211 yards/game over last three weeks, but also allowed 71 points in last two games, rallying from down 23-3 at half to beat 3-6 South Florida, 37-36. Big East home teams are 8-10 vs spread in league play, 1-2 as home dogs. Last three Syracuse games and three of last four Louisville tilts went over the total.

Georgia Tech lost four of last six games, already fired DC Groh; those two wins were vs BC team that’s going to fire its coach, and Maryland team that was using a freshman LB at QB because of severe injury hits- their defense figures to struggle vs Tar Heel offense that scored 48-43 points in winning last two home games. UNC has been struggling on defense, allowing 33+ points in three of last four games, allowing 20+ points in first half of all three of those games. Tech won three in row, 12 of last 14 games vs North Carolina, with underdogs 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight series games; Yellow Jackets won five of last seven visits here, with both losses by 21 points (‘04/’08). Over is 6-1 in last seven Tech games, 3-1-1 in last five Tar Heel tilts.

Alabama is still #1 in country after dramatic, last-minute 21-17 (-8.5) win at LSU, game where Tigers outgained Bama 435-331, but couldn’t execute any of several gambles which would’ve turned game their way. Texas A&M has better offense than LSU; they’ve won six of last seven games, scoring 30+ points in all five wins- A&M lost only two times they scored less than 30, 20-17 (-2.5) at Florida, 24-19 (+3.5) at home to LSU. Aggies didn’t force a turnover in either game. Last week was first time Alabama won game by less than 19 points; they’re just 1-3 as home favorites this year, despite winning home games by 35-33-19-31 points. Five of last seven Aggie games, six of last eight Bama games stayed under the total. SEC home favorites are 13-10 vs spread in conference play this season.

Nebraska won six of last seven games, but three of its last four wins were by 4 or less points; they’ve allowed 24+ points in four of last five games, but are 3-1 as home favorites this year, after 12-20 from ’07-’11. Cornhuskers (-3) won 17-14 at Penn State LY, in eerie game that was first PSU home game after all the Sandusky stuff broke; game was 17-0 at one point. Both teams completed less than half its passes; Lions outgained Nebraska 375-331. O’Brien has done nice job getting most out of transfer-depleted Lions; they’re 6-3, covering seven of last eight games, and covered three of four as an underdog, after having been 1-7 as road dog from ’06-’11. Three of last four Penn State games, five of eight Nebraska games went over total. Last road trip of season for bowl-ineligible Lions.

Arizona State/USC are both struggling mightily. Sun Devils lost last three games, allowing 43-45-36 points- they were outscored 83-43 in first half of those three games. ASU is 0-3 vs spread as underdog this year, 0-3-1 in last four tries- they beat USC 43-22 (-2.5) LY in Temple, its first win in last dozen series games; total yardage was 402-392 Trojans, but -4 turnover ratio decided winner. USC allowed 39-62 points in losing last two games; USC teams just don’t give up 730 yards and 62 points like they did last week to Oregon in the Coliseum. Trojans are 9-12 in last 21 games as a home favorite. Sun Devils lost last six visits here, but are 2-0-1 vs spread in last three and 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven series games overall. Pac-12 home favorites are 12-9 vs spread in league play. Three of last four ASU games went over the total.

West Virginia covered its last seven tries as road underdogs; its last win anywhere was 48-45 (+7.5) at Texas, last time they were a dog; problem is, that game was five weeks ago. Mountaineers’ defense has fallen apart, allowing 49-55-39 points in losing last three games, two of which were at home; last week’s OT loss to TCU came at hands of Horned Frogs’ backup freshman QB, whp passed for 279 yards. In last three games, only 36 of 209 plays (17.2%) run by opponents came on 3rd down (23.1% of WV’s plays were on 3rd down). OSU QB Lunt was knocked goofy last week, but they still passed for 417 yards at K-State, as backup Chelf is capable leader. Since ’07, Cowboys are 18-7-1 vs spread as home favorites, 3-0 this season. Teams last met in ’87 Sun Bowl.

Condition of Kansas State QB Klein’s right wrist/arm/hand is major topic of conversation for everyone except those who know what problem is; he led Wildcats to TD last week after getting the injury, but took hard hit on TD run, his last play of game. Wildcats are 3-0 on road, winning as dogs at Oklahoma/West Virginia; if Klein can’t go, mobile redshirt freshman Sams gets nod; he is said to be capable. Since ’04, K-State is meager 3-12 vs spread when laying points on road. TCU has taken lumps in move up from MVC, due in large part to QB Pachall getting tossed for year (rehab); Horned Frogs allowed 56-36-38 points in last three games, and gave up 37 in home loss to Iowa State before that. Big X home underdogs are 4-5 vs spread in conference play. Over is 3-1-1 in last K-State games, 3-1 in last four TCU tilts.

Missouri lost three of last four games, is 1-5 in first season of SEC play (4-5 overall), but they played tough defense last week, losing 14-7 (+17) at Florida; Tigers outgained Florida 335-276 but threw four picks, were -3 in turnovers. It was 4th time in five weeks Mizzou held opponent under 20 points. Tennessee has opposite problem; they lost four of last five games, with only win 55-48 over Troy of Sun Belt (TY, 722-718, Troy); Vols have only two takeaways in last four games, have allowed 23+ points in first half in each of last six games. Tennessee is 1-3 as favorite this year, 0-3 at home; Mizzou is 2-3 as underdog, 2-1 on road. SEC home favorites are 13-10 vs spread in conference play. All eight of Tennessee’s lined games went over total; six of last seven Mizzou games stayed under.

Stanford beat Oregon State last two years with Luck under center (38-0/38-13), but are still just 4-7 in last 11 games vs Beavers; Cardinal is +8 in turnovers in last four series games, winning 36-28/38-0 in last two played here. Favorites covered six of last nine series games (3-4 in last seven here). 7-1 Beavers won SU all four times they were underdog this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as road dogs. Stanford was held to 13 points in both losses (@Washington/@ Notre Dame) this year; they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after having covered 14 of previous 21 games in that role. Cardinal hasn’t turned ball over in last two games, has +11 turnover ratio this season. Pac-12 home favorites are 12-9 vs spread in league play. Both teams are starting QB who began season as the backup.

LSU has to bounce back from huge effort/bigger disappointment in last-minute loss vs Alabama last week; they’ve won last 12 games vs Mississippi State, and covered 15 of last 18 (3-3 in last six). Bulldogs lost last seven visits here (2-5 vs spread), with four of last five by 18+ points; they’ve been crushed 38-7/38-13 last two weeks (trailed both games 24-0 at half), after starting season 7-0, so they need big effort here to avoid freefall (finish with Arkansas/Ole Miss). Tigers are 3-4 as favorites this year, 2-2 at home; their last three I-A wins were all by five or less points. Tigers have 20 takeaways in last seven games, are +8 in turnovers last three games. Seven of eight MSU games, four of last five LSU games stayed under the total. Big number for LSU to cover with possible post-Bama hangover, but they’re 12-7-1 vs spread in game following last 20 losses.

Fresno State covered eight of last nine games, four of five on road; only one of last five opponents scored more than 20 points. Bulldogs covered seven of last nine as a road favorite. Nevada’s defense has fallen apart, allowing 37-39-48 points in last three games; they’ve scored 31+ points in all three losses this year- since ’02 they’re 10-7 as home underdogs, 2-0 since ’10. In last four games, Nevada foes converted 32 of 59 on 3rd down. Wolf Pack won last four games with Fresno State by average score of 43-28; underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 series games, 4-1 in last five played here, with Bulldogs losing last two visits, 35-34/41-28. MWC home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in league play. Four of last five Fresno games stayed under total; last three Nevada games went over.

Other Notes

-- Wyoming failed to cover last five tries as a road favorite.
-- Temple is 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a home underdog.
-- Memphis won/covered its last six games vs Tulane.
-- Underdogs covered seven of last nine Houston-Tulsa games.

-- Michigan covered just six of last 19 conference home games.
-- UL-Lafayette covered 14 of last 16 tries as a road underdog. Underdogs covered seven of last eight Virginia-Miami games.
-- Visiting team covered last six Texas-Iowa State games.

-- Rutgers covered six of its last seven games with Army.
-- Underdog covered five of last six Kansas-Texas Tech games.
-- Syracuse is 3-10 vs spread in last 13 Big East home games.
-- Road team is 11-5-1 vs spread in Ole Miss-Vanderbilt games.

Armadillosports.com

Texas A&M at Alabama
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Since losing to LSU in overtime at Bryant-Denny Stadium last November, Alabama (9-0 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) had won 12 consecutive games by 17 points or more. In other words, Nick Saban’s team had not been in a 60-minute slugfest in a long time.

Well, the Crimson Tide got just that last Saturday night at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Trailing 14-3 at intermission, LSU dominated the second half and bullied its way into the lead at crunch time.

Zach Mettenberger enjoyed his best game as a college football player, completing 24-of-35 throws for 298 yards and one touchdown without an interception. His 14-yard scoring strike to Jarvis Landry gave the Tigers a 17-14 advantage early in the fourth quarter.

When Mettenberger connected with Odell Beckham for a 22-yard gain to Alabama’s 31 with 2:34 remaining, LSU appeared poised to pull off the upset. But Alabama had two timeouts left and used both of them after stuffing a pair of run plays, setting up a third-and-10 situation for LSU.

Although Les Miles had been aggressive all night long and his QB was in a great rhythm, he opted for the safe play. Jeremy Hill rushed for four yards to set up a 45-yard field goal. Drew Alleman’s attempt was off the mark, though, giving the Tide a chance to go 72 yards in 88 seconds.

LSU’s defense had given Alabama QB A.J. McCarron absolutely nothing in the second half, limiting him to one completion for zero yards. But the junior signal caller had different ideas for the biggest drive of his career.

It started with a quick throw to Kevin Norwood, who shook a tackler for first-down yardage and an 18-yard gainer. Most importantly, the clock stopped to move the chains.

Quickly on the ball, McCarron hit Norwood again on a deep out for 15 yards. This time, Norwood got out of bounds at LSU’s 39 with 1:11 remaining.

Now as long as Alabama avoided a sack, the clock wasn’t much of an issue. McCarron went to Norwood again on an out pattern for 11 yards to LSU’s 28. Again, Norwood got out of bounds.

At this point, it was time to get greedy. Forget a game-tying field-goal attempt to force overtime. McCarron smelled blood and was ready to go for the kill. He dropped back and looked to Norwood – again! – in the back of the end zone but the pass fell incomplete after Norwood and the defender went down due to incidental contact.

For the first four plays of the drive, LSU had sat back in coverage with just a four-man rush. On second and 10 with 51 ticks left, the Tigers decided to bring pressure. Unfortunately for them, Alabama had the perfect play called.

McCarron threw a screen pass to freshman running back T.J. Yeldon, who had blockers in front. This looked like trouble from the get-go and it was. Yeldon only needed to make one man miss (he did) before scampering to paydirt.

On LSU’s ensuing drive, it went three and out without getting the clock stopped once. Alabama had escaped with a 21-17 win, but LSU took the cash as an eight-point home underdog. The 38 combined points barely stayed ‘under’ the 38½-point total.

Now gamblers must determine where Alabama is at physically and emotionally after playing its toughest game of the season, one it was shooting for all year. The Tide better be ready for another barnburner because Texas A&M (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) is coming to Tuscaloosa with nothing to lose and one of college football’s premier weapons in redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny ‘Football’ Manziel.

Most betting shops are listing Alabama as a 13½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 56. Bettors can take the Aggies on the money line for a generous plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).

Kevin Sumlin’s squad has been the SEC’s biggest surprise, losing only to Florida (20-17) and LSU (24-19) in games it led for most of the first half. This is Texas A&M’s third road assignment in as many weeks, but the road has been good.

The Aggies smashed Mississippi St. by a 38-13 count last week and went into Auburn and emerged with a 63-21 victory two weeks ago. The 63-point eruption on The Plains was the most points an opponent had ever scored in the storied history of Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Manziel has produced video-game numbers all year. He leads the SEC in rushing with 922 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Manziel has completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 2,527 yards with a 16/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Texas A&M is tops in the SEC and fifth in America in scoring, averaging 44.7 points per game. With that sort of production, you know there are other key pieces in addition to the start signal caller.

Manziel has two of the SEC’s top wide receivers in Mike Evans and Ryan Swope. Evans has hauled in 56 receptions for 802 yards and two TDs, while Swope has 45 catches for 641 yards and five TDs.

RB Ben Malena has rushed for 637 yards and six TDs, averaging 6.6 YPC. Christine Michael has rushed for 381 yards and eight scores.

This offense will go up against a ‘Bama ‘D’ that’s ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense and scoring defense (9.1 PPG).

McCarron still hasn’t thrown an interception this year and has 19 TD passes.

As a home favorite on Saban’s watch, Alabama has posted a 17-18 spread record.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Aggies, 3-2 in their road assignments. Meanwhile, Alabama has seen its totals go 4-4-1 overall, but the ‘under’ is 3-0-1 in its home games.

CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

College Football Value Plays
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

Each week we look at the biggest differentials between what The Linemakers College Football Power Ratings say a point spread should be and what the actual market price is. A lot of the differences lay within the proper rating of a home-field advantage, and sometimes we have a number that is way off the charts relative to the actual point spread.

It doesn't mean ours is necessarily the right number, but we're usually closer to being right than wrong.

As sports book directors, we used these ratings to help shade the numbers in our books. We'd be crazy to post our exact thoughts against the market line, but we would shade the numbers to ensure we at least got our first few bets on the desired team. If we thought N.C. State should be -15 against Wake Forest, but the betting market everywhere else had -7.5, we may open the game -8.5 or -9.

We'd eventually get pushed to the market price, but at least we had bets on the side we hoped for.

We simplify this process for you by calculating the biggest differentials each week and relaying to you which teams present the best value. It saves you the work, and gives you a nice tool as you're finalizing your betting strategies for Saturday.

On the left are the bet number and team that offers the best value relative to the current Las Vegas line.

118 NC State (-7.5) vs. Wake Forest: We think the line should be closer to -15.

120 Rutgers (-17.5) vs. Army: We’re looking at Rutgers being closer to -25.

127 Wisconsin (-7) at Indiana: The Badgers should be laying 11.

134 North Carolina (-8.5) vs. Georgia Tech: UNC -13 is the better number.

143 Western Michigan (-2.5) at Buffalo: WMU should be an 8-point favorite.

148 Auburn (+14.5) vs. Georgia: We made Georgia only -10.

154 USC (-9) vs. Arizona State: USC -12.5 is the more accurate spread.

160 New Mexico State (+21) vs. San Jose State: The Spartans should be only -16, according to our numbers.

162 California (+28.5) vs. Oregon: Too big a number for Oregon to be laying. The Ducks should be around -17.

167 Cincinnati (-9) at Temple: We like Cincy closer to -16.

172 Texas (-10) vs. Iowa State: The Longhorns should be closer to -14.

195 Louisiana Tech (-20) at Texas State: La. Tech -27 is more like it.

202 Stanford (-4) vs. Oregon State: We like Stanford -7 here.

208 Western Kentucky (-16.5) vs. Florida Atlantic: WKU should be around -21.