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College Football Week 2 Betting News and Notes

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College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 7th, 2017 thru Saturday, September 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : September 6, 2017 9:34 am
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The Dozen: Sooners seek upset
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

College football started serving up gourmet matchups immediately and apparently has no chill since it's coming right back with seconds to snack on. Here are the top six candidates for next week's top game, looking to follow in the footsteps of UCLA's epic comeback win over Texas A&M and Alabama's impressive first showing in a 24-7 vanquishing of Florida State.

1. Oklahoma at Ohio State: The Lincoln Riley era in Norman debuted as most expected it would. Even though he admitted it took him a while to realize that he had to handle some of the small in-game details like accepting a penalty, the Sooners looked like they did under Bob Stoops, overwhelming overmatched UTEP 56-7. Mark Andrews looks like the real deal at receiver and Baker Mayfield dominated as expected, but he'll quickly find out that what he saw defensively from the Miners isn't in the same universe as what Ohio State will throw at him. The Buckeyes are loaded on both sides of the ball and will be the top opponent the Sooners will see this season since no one in their conference is as sound on the defensive end or is blessed with quality depth. The nation's longest winning streak (11) will be on the line in Columbus, where the Buckeyes also have something to prove given how overwhelmed they were by Clemson in last season's national semifinal. Win or lose, this will be a measuring stick of J.T. Barrett's ability to lead Ohio State against elite competition. Is he a game manager or more? The Buckeyes won by 21 in Norman last season as a one-point road favorite and will be looking for their 38th win in a home opener in 39 tries.

2. Auburn at Clemson: This battle of Tigers might go a long way in determining who ends up in the college football playoff, but it could also mean absolutely nothing. The winner of this game still has to get through conference play against some of the best teams in the country, not to mention a championship game. Emerging victorious does indeed put them in a great position given how both of these teams are currently perceived, especially after winning their openers by a combined score of 97-10. Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham looked rusty in his debut, so expecting him to rally his troops on the road in Death Valley will be a major challenge. Desean Watson's replacement, Kelly Bryant, will have to prove he can beat a physical, fast defense after compiling a school-record 313 all-purpose yards against Kent State. Last year's meeting, a 19-13 Clemson win on the plains, was scoreless into the second quarter. Auburn has dropped three straight in this series.

3. Stanford at USC: One of two conference games on this list, this showdown is going to tell us a lot about the Trojans, who found themselves involved in a tight game against a Western Michigan squad that lost its head coach to a larger program and many of last year's leaders to graduation. A late pick-six made the final score appear more lopsided than the game actually was, but anyone who watched USC struggle has to be left wondering whether the hype over Sam Darnold and his star-studded supporting cast will ultimately lack substance. The Cardinal destroyed Rice and unveiled a downfield passing attack behind fifth-year senior Kellen Chryst and a Bryce Love-led rushing offense that isn't going to miss first-round pick Christian McCaffrey the way most thought they would. Although the Trojans are favored at home, they have dropped three straight games against Stanford, including the 2015 Pac-12 championship game. USC has won 10 consecutive contests and will be looking for its first win over the Cardinal in the Coliseum since late 2013. Stanford ran for over 300 yards in last season's 27-10 win.

4. Georgia at Notre Dame: Brandon Wimbush had a fantastic debut as the Irish's starting quarterback, running for over 100 yards and displaying speed and elusiveness that should serve him well against a Dawgs defense that looks like the strength of the team with so many returning starters back under the tutelage of Kirby Smart. Georgia will test Notre Dame in a way that undermanned Temple couldn't, which should set this up to be a low-scoring affair where both teams play it close to the vest, waiting out the other's first mistake. UGA starting QB Jacob Eason injured his knee against Appalachian State, so true freshman Jake Fromm, one of the country's most heralded recruits, will make his first start in South Bend. After going 2-3 against ACC competition and 0-4 against other power-five schools last season, this is a statement game for Brian Kelly, who last beat an SEC foe in the 2014 Music City Bowl. These schools have only met once, back in the 1981 Sugar Bowl.

5. TCU at Arkansas: These former Southwestern Conference rivals renewed acquaintances for the first time since 1991 last season in a fantastic double-OT game that the Razorbacks won in Fort Worth, improving to 31-3 over the last 34 meetings. The Horned Frogs are no longer the pushover they used to be and dominated Jackson State 63-0 last week as Kenny "Trill" Hill looks to finish his college career on a high note. While former Hogs star Brandon Allen failed to stick on the Jaguars' 53-man roster, younger brother Austin looks for a better fate in his senior season and has last season's success against TCU to build on since he led the game-winning comeback. With six of last year's top seven receiving leaders gone from the program, the Hogs are going to need new weapons to step up and can identify some here prior to SEC play.

6. Louisville at North Carolina: The Tar Heels stumbled at home against Cal, unable to get stops when they needed to and failing to adequately replace top draft pick Mitch Trubisky under center. Although LSU transfer Brandon Harris and redshirt freshman Chazz Surratt showed promise and each have great wheels, they're going to be hard-pressed to match the production of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, whose exploits against Purdue prevented an upset in a game that could've gone either way. These teams haven't seen each other since '11, so UNC will be getting its first look at Jackson in what becomes the first ACC meeting between the schools. With Clemson coming to town next week, the Cards have to improve on last week's showing in Indianapolis that saw them down at the break as they narrowly held on despite being a 25-point favorite.

7. Nebraska at Oregon: It didn't take long for new Huskers defensive coordinator Bob Diaco to endear himself to Huskers fans who watched in horror as Arkansas State racked up 289 first-half yards and 26 points in Lincoln on Saturday night. Nebraska survived 43-36 and Diaco caught grief for not speaking to the media, which he's since chalked up to a miscommunication. His defense must now go on the road to face a Ducks attack that scored 77 points against Southern Utah, finding the end zone three times in each of the first three quarters. Oregon ran back the opening kickoff and finished with the highest single-game output of anyone so far. The RedWolves racked up nearly 5.6 yards per play against Nebraska, so there's reason for concern that the visitors will be unable to shore up its defense given the added variables that come with a road environment . The Huskers won last year's meeting 35-32 at home, marking only the fifth time in 15 tries that head coach Mike Riley has gotten better of the Ducks. This will be the first big test for new Oregon boss Willie Taggart, who looks like he has a gem in sophomore QB Justin Herbert. We'll see how the Ducks fare here, but after last season's collapse, the swagger appears to be back.

8. Pittsburgh at Penn State: The Nittany Lions took a few drives to get going against Akron but looked unstoppable once they got revved up, showing off on both sides of the ball. They'll now look to avoid a repeat of last year against Pittsburgh, which tripped them up 42-39 in the second game of the season. At that point, James Franklin's Penn State tenure looked like a failure since the team had barely hovered over .500 since his arrival, but they've won 11 of 13 games since and look like a national title contender. The Panthers won't have Nathan Peterman to rely upon, but have a talented quarterback in USC transfer Max Browne. He didn't look sharp in a disappointing opener that saw Pitt blow a second-half lead to Youngstown State before surviving in overtime. The Panthers haven't played in Happy Valley since 1999 and face Oklahoma State next week, so they'll have to dramatically improve on Saturday's effort to avoid disappointment.

9. Utah at BYU: Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham has won the last six Holy Wars and is 16-0 in non-conference play over the past four seasons, so it's no surprise to see the visitors favored slightly here. BYU hasn't looked formidable in barely beating Portland State and being dominated on both sides of the ball in a shutout loss against LSU. Cougs head coach Kalani Sitake served as a defensive assistant under Whittingham from '05-'14, so it was no surprise to see that last year's first meeting as rival head coaches produced a 20-19 defensive battle featuring nine turnovers and a failed two-point conversion at game's end as Sitake went for the win in Salt Lake City. The Utes are facing some inner turmoil since sophomore Tyler Huntley has replaced senior team captain Troy Williams as the starting quarterback. Huntley will get to prove he deserves the gig in a tough road environment after a nice first effort in his first college start in a 37-16 win over North Dakota.

10. South Carolina at Missouri: Despite an impressive win in Charlotte over N.C. State, the Gamecocks find themselves in an underdog role as they take the field for their SEC opener on the road in the other Columbia. Mizzou was carved up by Missouri State to the tune of 35 first-half points before pulling away to win 72-43, displaying an alarming ineptitude against the only FCS opponent on their schedule. Given that second-year head coach Barry Odom's background is in defense, the panic button has already been pressed since the Gamecocks won't be as forgiving as the Bears were, allowing Mizzou to showcase its offensive weapons and eventually being lapped in a track meet. Will Muschamp won the first meeting against Odom's Tigers last season 31-21, but won only one of five road games. South Carolina is just 2-10 in it's last 12 conference road games, last winning at Missouri in 2013. Last year's win produced the most points (52) of any game in the series since the Tigers joined the conference.

11. Boise State at Washington State: Both of these schools enter the season with their offensive arsenal getting the most hype thanks to the return of quarterbacks Luke Falk and Brett Rypien, but it was their defenses that did the heavy lifting in their respective openers. The Broncos survived Troy by coming up with big stops and limiting the visitors to just three second-half points, while the Cougs shut out Montana State in dominant fashion. Falk completed his first 20 passes, but he'll face a much stiffer challenge here. Even though Boise State lost six of its top seven tacklers, its defense looked tremendous against a Trojans offense that returned several key pieces and helped make up for a rough outing from its offense. Boise won last year's game by just three points despite being a double-digit favorite and has won four straight against Pac-12 opponents, a perfect run under head coach Bryan Harsin. Mike Leach comes off his first win in a season opener at Washington State after losing his first five. He's got a group talented enough to notch double-digit wins for the first time since 2003 but probably needs this one to make it happen given their grueling schedule.

12. Northwestern at Duke: Blue Devils head coach David Cutcliffe sees this as the best Wildcats team he's come across, and this will be the third straight season he's got them on the schedule. Duke saw a streak of four consecutive bowl appearances end last season, so this will be a great test to see where they really stand after they hung 60 points on overmatched NC Central. Northwestern struggled against Nevada before taking control and will be relying on Clayton Thorson to lead the way on the road. The third-year starter is 6-3 in true road games and returns to the site of his first college road win, having beaten Duke in Durham 19-10 in 2015. He'll lean on senior RB Justin Jackson, who picked up 109 yards on 30 carries and figures to be the focal point. The Wildcats are 17-4 when he cracks the century mark as he chases his fourth straight 1,000-yard season.

Others: Iowa at Iowa State, Indiana at Virginia, Houston at Arizona, Cincinnati at Michigan, Western Michigan at Michigan State, Memphis at UCF, Minnesota at Oregon State, Florida Atlantic at Wisconsin, San Diego State at Arizona State, Toledo at Nevada.

 
Posted : September 6, 2017 9:36 am
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NCAAF Week 2

Oregon players went toward Pacific coast to practice this week after air in Eugene was affected by wildfires in that area. Ducks (+3) lost 35-32 in Lincoln LY, despite rushing for 336 yards- since 2015, they are 3-10 vs spread at home. Since ’13, Nebraska is 12-6-1 vs spread in road games; Cornhuskers allowed 415 passing yards in surprisingly tough 43-36 home win over Arkansas St. last week. ASU outgained Nebraska 497-463. Last 4+ years, Big 14 teams are 15-10-1 vs spread when playing a Pac-12 opponent, but only 4-6 when favored- underdogs were 17-8-1 vs spread in those games.

Louisville/North Carolina are meeting for first time as ACC rivals; Cardinals won three of last four meetings (last one was in ’12). Louisville outgained Purdue 524-344 LW but struggled to a 35-28 (-26) win in Hoosier Dome. Cardinals are 10-7 vs spread on road under Petrino, 7-5 as a road favorite; they’ve got a great QB (Jackson) but only three other returning starters on offense. North Carolina lost 35-30 (-12.5) at home to Cal last week; Tar Heels allowed 363 passing yards. UNC is 19-12 vs spread at home under Fedora.

Iowa won three of last four games with Iowa State, winning 31-17/27-21 in last two visits to Ames. Iowa averaged 34.5 pts/game in their last four games at ISU. Hawkeyes shut down Wyoming 24-3 LW but gained only 263 yards themselves- they are 16-4 vs spread in last 20 road games, covering 11 of last 12 tries as a road favorite. Cyclones beat a I-AA team last week; State was 4-1 as a home dog LY, in Campbell’s 1st year as ISU’s coach. Iowa’s OL has 99 returning starts, State only 35. Since 2011, Big X teams are 10-9 vs spread when facing a Big 14 opponent.

Pittsburgh (-5) beat Penn State 42-39 last year; Pitt ran the ball for 341 yards in former rivals’ first meeting since 2000. Panthers needed OT to beat I-AA Youngstown 28-21 LW, after blowing a 21-0 halftime lead. Nittany Lions crushed Akron 52-0 LW, running ball for 247 yards- since ’14 they’re 10-6 vs spread as a home favorite. Since ’15, Pitt is 6-3 vs spread as a road underdog; they’re 3-12 vs spread in last 15 non-league games. ACC teams won 8 of last 10 games vs Big 14 foes (6-4 vs spread). Both teams have experienced offensive lines.

Arkansas (+7.5) won 41-38 at TCU LY, teams’ first meeting in 20+ years. Frogs outgained the Hogs 572-403 but were -2 in turnovers in game Arkansas led 13-0 at the half. Since 2014, TCU is 7-5 vs spread in non-league games; since 2011, they’re 5-13 as a road favorite. 9 of Horned Frogs’ top 10 OL guys are back from LY. Arkansas is 6-8 vs spread in last 14 home games; they’re 6-6 as a home dog under Bielema. Razorbacks have 70 starts back on OL. both teams have senior QB’s. Last three years, Big X teams are 9-7 vs spread when facing an SEC squad.

South Carolina was outgained 504-246 last week but they beat NC State 35-28; Gamecocks ran kick back for a TD- since 2013, Carolina is 7-13 vs spread in true road games- they’ve got 98 starts back on OL and have an impressive sophomore QB in Bentley. Problem is, NC State threw for 415 yards against them LW. Missouri gained 815 TY LW in 72-43 win over a I-AA team- game was 48-35 at half. Mizzou covered five of last seven home games. Teams split last four meetings. Both teams have 10 returning starters on offense.

Clemson (-9) held off Auburn 19-13 LY, outgaining War Eagles 399-262, holding Auburn to 87 rushing yards. Since 2014, Auburn is 4-8 vs spread on road; Baylor transfer Stidham gets his first big test as Auburn’s QB- his OL has 106 returning starts. Clemson has a new QB; they thrashed Kent State LW, but Kent threw only 5 passes the whole game, so Clemson’s pass defense is an unknown. Since 2013, Clemson is 15-12-1 vs spread at home. Since 2015, ACC teams are 15-11 vs spread won facing an SEC opponent.

Georgia’s starting QB Eason sprained his knee last week; true freshman Fromm gets his first college start here— he was 10-15/143 against Appalachian State LW. Since 2014, Dawgs are 7-5 vs spread on road; their OL has only 45 returning starts, but they’ve got 10 returning starters on defense. Since 2013, Notre Dame is 8-10 vs spread as a home favorite; Irish have 15 starters back- their OL has 76 returning starts. ND beat rebuilding Temple 49-16 LW, running ball for 422 yards- their QB and two RB’s all had 100+ yards on the ground.

Ohio State (-1) went to Norman LY and beat Oklahoma 45-24, running ball for 291 yards; they were +2 in turnovers. Buckeyes were down in 3rd quarter at Indiana LW but won going away, 49-21; they’re 17-19 vs spread as home favorites under Meyer. OSU has a senior QB and 15 returning starters. Since 2012, Oklahoma is 15-10 vs spread on road; they’re 4-2 as a road underdog the last 10 years. Sooners have a new coach, but a senior QB and 97 retiring starts on their OL. Indiana threw for 420 yards LW; can Mayfield pull the road upset?

Memphis/Central Florida both have offensive lines with 100+ returning starts; Tigers won opener 37-29 in quagmire LW, so stats are misleading. Memphis is 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road underdog. Since 2010, Knights are 24-14 vs spread as a home favorite; they passed for 439 yards LW in easy win over FIU. UCF won its last nine games with Memphis, but covered only one of last four; teams haven’t met since 2013— Memphis has gotten good since then, but they’re still 0-4 in last four trips to UCF (0-4 vs spread).

Stanford won its last three games with USC, by 19-10-17 points; underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in last nine series games. Cardinal won four of last five games in the Coliseum. Stanford is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 true road games; they were in Australia two weeks ago, crushing Rice 62-7- they’ve got 8 starters back on both sides of the ball. USC was tied with Western Michigan in 4th quarter LW, pulled away late for 49-31 win. Since 2011, Trojans are 23-11 as home favorites; since ’14, they’re 13-6 vs spread at home.

Utah won its last six games with BYU; they were underdog in three of those games- their last four series wins were all by 7 or less points. Utes are 12-5 vs spread in last 17 true road games. BYU is 13-11-1 vs spread at home; they didn’t cross the 50-yard line in ugly 27-0 loss to LSU in New Orleans last week. Utes won last two visits to Provo, 20-13/34-10. This is intense rivalry that had a 2-year gap in it- this is Utes’ first visit to BYU since 2013- underdogs covered six of last seven series games. BYU is 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog.

Boise State (-11) beat Washington State 31-28 LY, despite Coogs passing for 480 yards; Boise is 11-6 vs spread on road under Harsin- they’re 9-6 vs spread in last 15 non-league games. Wazzu is 8-5 vs spread in its last 13 home games; they’ve got 16 starters back and Falk is a really good senior QB (29 starts). Boise State (-11) got past Troy State 24-13 LW; Coogs drilled an inferior I-AA opponent. Last 2+ years, Pac-12 schools are 15-9-1 vs spread when playing a Mountain West opponent.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : September 6, 2017 1:59 pm
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ACC Report - Week 2
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Louisiana-Monroe at Florida State

The Warhawks of ULM saunter into Tallahassee as decisive underdogs after dropping a 37-29 decision in Memphis last weekend. They'll meet an angry Florida State side which had its tail kicked by Alabama in the opener by a 24-7 count, and they lost starting QB Deondre Francois to a season-ending knee injury. Even with FSU down their top signall caller, Vegas has the 'Noles installed as a 33 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday afternoon. While the Warhawks are 6-2-1 ATS over their past nine games against non-conference foes, they are a dismal 1-5 ATS following a straight-up loss. The Seminoles tend to be much better, going 4-1 ATS over their past five following an L in the previous week, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark over their past five non-conference tilts.

Louisville at North Carolina

Louisville and defending Heisman Trophy winner QB Lamar Jackson received all they could handle from Purdue in Indianapolis last weekend, sneaking away with a 35-28 victory. Meanwhile, North Carolina was tripped up in its opener against California, and they'll try to avoid an 0-2 start at Kenan. These teams haven't met since Sept. 15, 2012, hooking up this week for the first time as ACC foes. Louisville won the most recent meeting 39-34 in Kentucky, but that can mostly be discounted considering none of the players on the field Saturday were actually on the field in the most recent meeting. The line opened at six, quickly getting bet up into double digits. That's interesting considering the Cardinals are 0-5 ATS over their past five, and 1-4-1 ATS in their past six trips away from home. Meanwhile, UNC is 4-0 ATS in their past four following a straight-up loss and 5-0 ATS in their past five following a non-cover.

Northwestern at Duke

In a 'Brain Bowl', the Wildcats and Blue Devils do battle trying to each get to 2-0 on the season. The Wildcats topped Nevada 31-20 last week, failing to cover a 24-point number, while Duke smashed fellow Durham resident and FCS opponent North Carolina Central by a 60-7 count. The Wildcats came away with a 24-13 win last season in Evanston, and they won 19-10 in their last trip to Wallace Wade on a steamy day in 2015. Northwestern has covered the previous two meetings, too, and they're a perfect 6-0 ATS in their past six against ACC opponents. However, Duke is an impressive 20-6-1 ATS in their past 27 outside of the conference.

Wake Forest at Boston College

Both the Deacons and Eagles have a chance to get out to a hot start, not only moving to 2-0 overall, but 1-0 in the conference. Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS over their past seven road outings and 5-1 ATS in their past six against ACC foes. It's the complete opposite for BC, who failed to cover last week in a win over Northern Illinois. The Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in their past 11 inside the conference, 1-4-2 ATS in their past seven in September and 3-8-2 ATS in their past 13 played in Chestnut Hill. Total bettors will be interested to know the 'under' has connected in seven straight meetings in this series.

Pittsburgh at Penn State

Pitt eased past FCS opponent Youngstown State last week by a 28-21 score, needing overtime to survive. Meanwhile, Penn State mauled visiting Akron by a 52-0 count, proving their Top 5 ranking is certainly no fluke. These clubs met last Sept. 10 in an entertaining 42-39 track meet in the Steel City, and the Panthers piled up 341 rushing yards. On the other side, Heisman hopeful Saquon Barkley found the end zone four times in the victory. The line opened at 18 1/2 and is quickly up to the three-touchdown neighborhood. That's likely because the Panthers are 3-13 ATS in their past 16 non-conference tilts and 1-5 ATS across the past six vs. Big Ten foes. Penn State is an impressive 8-0 ATS following a cover, 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven against winning teams and 6-0-1 ATS over the past seven in Happy Valley. Keep in mind that the underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS across the past five in this series.

Indiana at Virginia

The Hoosiers of IU might not have topped Ohio State last Thursday, but they received plenty of good words following their tough showing for the first three quarters. Indiana moved the ball well through the air and actually held a 14-13 lead midway through the third before talent took over. Meanwhile, UVA churned out a 28-10 win over FCS William & Mary, a solid mid-level opponent. The Hoosiers missed the cover last week with a late second half run by Ohio State. They're 2-6 ATS in their past eight against the ACC, and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 on grass. Something's got to give, as the Hoos are 0-5 ATS in their past five and 1-4 ATS in their past five in Charlottesville.

Marshall at North Carolina State

Marshall found themselves as rare home underdogs against Miami (Ohio) last week, but they opened the game with a 99-yard kickoff return for touchdown and finished with a 31-26 victory. One thing to note, however, is that despite scoring 31 points, the Herd had two long kickoff returns for score and one pick-six. The offense was actually outgained 429-267 in total yardage and Marshall accounted for just 15 first downs. N.C. State is going to be an ornery bunch after falling short against South Carolina in Charlotte in an entertaining affair. The Wolfpack is an impressive 11-3 ATS in their past 14 non-conference battles, 9-2 ATS across the past 11 in September and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on a grass surface. The Herd has covered just twice over their past seven road trips while going 0-7 ATS in their past seven following a cover in the previous outing.

Auburn at Clemson

It's a battle of Tigers in the upstate, as Auburn invades Clemson looking to hand the defending champs their first L since the 2016 National Championship game. Clemson is installed as a five-point favorite as of Wednesday afternoon, so Vegas expects a tight affair similar to their previous meeting. Clemson won a hard-fought 19-13 battle on the Plains last season, outperforming Auburn 399-262 in total yardage. Auburn is 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 games overall, and 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven outside of the conference, while going 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine on a grass surface. Meanwhile, Clemson is 4-1 ATS in their past five at Death Valley, while going 11-5 ATS in their past 16 following a straight-up victory. They're also 5-0 ATS in their past five outside of the conference, including two playoff games last season and a decisive 56-3 victory over Kent State in the opener last Saturday in front of the home faithful.

Other Games

Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech
Delaware at Virginia Tech
Middle Tennessee at Syracuse

 
Posted : September 6, 2017 5:05 pm
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NCAAF's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 2
By Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Auburn Tigers at Clemson Tigers (-5.5, 53.5)

Jarrett Stidham's turnover troubles vs. Clemson's vaunted pass rush

One of this week's marquee matchups is an all-tabby affair, with Auburn and Clemson both coming off eerily similar victories in their respective openers. Auburn steamrolled Georgia Southern 41-7, limiting the overmatched Eagles to just 78 total yards - including a scant eight passing yards. Clemson was even more impressive in its opener, holding Kent State to one yard through the air en route to a 56-3 drubbing of the visiting Golden Flashes.

If there's one thing Auburn will need to improve heading into this week's difficult test, it's their turnover game. The Tigers coughed the ball up three times in their season-opening victory; quarterback Jarrett Stidham was the biggest culprit, throwing an interception and losing one of his two fumbles. It may have just been a combination of rust and jitters for Stidham, who was playing his first collegiate game since 2015 - but two turnovers against a weak opponent is still cause for concern.

Auburn, which turned the ball over three times as a team and fumbled four times overall, will need to be much more careful against a Clemson defensive unit that has been one of the best in the nation at pressuring the quarterback in recent years. The Tigers ranked 12th in Division I in sack percentage a season ago, and second overall in 2015. Experts believe this roster might be even better - which could mean very bad things for Stidham and the rest of the Clemson offense.

Oklahoma Sooners at Ohio State Buckeyes (-7.5, 64.5)

Sooners' surgical passing vs. Buckeyes' shaky first-half D

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this one as the Sooners and Buckeyes do battle at Ohio Stadium on Saturday night. As expected, both teams are coming off one-sided victories in their respective curtain raisers, with Oklahoma crushing Texas-El Paso 56-7 and Ohio State cruising to a 49-21 triumph over Indiana. But the Buckeyes had a little more work to do in their opener, and that could foretell some problems against a truly dominant Oklahoma passing game.

Sure, it was a home game against a lowly Conference USA opponent, but completing 32 of 36 passes is an impressive achievement no matter the opponent. Sooners starter and Heisman Trophy candidate Baker Mayfield was truly surgical in the opener, misfiring on just one of his 20 pass attempts while finishing with 329 yards and three touchdowns. Backups Kyler Murray (10-for-11) and Tanner Schafer (3-for-5) were also impressive as Oklahoma did whatever it wanted on the offensive end.

Contrast that with a rough first half for Ohio State, which actually trailed 14-13 at the half before putting its foot on the gas over the final 30 minutes. A Buckeyes pass defense that allowed the third-lowest opponent quarterback rating in the nation a year ago looked flat-footed against Indiana, allowing the Hoosiers to rack up 420 yards through the air (albeit on 68 pass attempts) and seven pass plays of 16+ yards in the first half alone. A much better effort will be required Saturday against a red-hot Mayfield.

Georgia Bulldogs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4.5, 55.5)

Georgia's rush D woes vs. Notre Dame's pounding ground attack

There are major concerns in Athens after starting quarterback Nick Eason suffered a sprained knee ligament in the Bulldogs' season-opening triumph over Appalachian State. Jake Fromm will make his first career start against Notre Dame this weekend after asserting himself well in relief last week. But there are bigger concerns with the Bulldogs - primarily, how are they going to slow down a Fighting Irish run game that dominated last week against Temple?

Last week's out come was never in doubt, as the Bulldogs scored the first 31 points of the game and then coasted to the finish. But permitting 4.3 yards per carry on 32 attempts against Appalachian State is a troubling development - and one that has carried over from last season, with Georgia allowing an average of 225.7 rushing yards over its final three games of 2016. With the Bulldogs now facing the toughest schedule in the nation based on the Football Power Index, that run defense had better improve in a hurry.

The Fighting Irish will be more than happy to provide a stiff test in that department. Notre Dame ran roughshod over the Owls last week, racking up 422 rushing yards on 44 attempts for an absurd 9.6 YPC average. Three players finished with more than 100 yards on the ground; it's believed to be the first time in school history that has happened. The Irish were a below-average rushing team in 2016, but did finish the season averaging better than 200 yards on the ground over their final three games.

Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (-6.5, 56)

Bryce Love's Heisman skill set vs. USC's ineffective 2-4-5

The big matchup out West this weekend pits the Trojans against the Cardinal in their annual early-season tilt. Both teams prevailed to open the year, with Stanford laying a 62-7 beating on Rice and USC using a big fourth quarter to subdue Western Michigan 49-31. The Cardinal rocked the Trojans for more than 300 yards on the ground in their 27-10 victory last season - and if last week is any indication, USC might find itself on the wrong end of another virtuoso rushing performance.

With Christian McCaffrey now property of the NFL's Carolina Panthers, there were questions about how Bryce Love would fare as the Cardinal's new full-time lead back. Those questions were effectively answered last week, as Love rumbled for 180 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries in the one-sided win over Rice. Love came into the year averaging better than seven yards per carry on 141 collegiate attempts, so it wasn't like he was a great unknown.

Love and the Cardinal should have a decided advantage on the ground against a Trojans defense that was gashed for 263 rushing yards by a plucky Western Michigan side. USC rolled with a 2-4-5 defensive alignment, and that gave the Broncos plenty of room to roam; LeVante Bellamy gained 102 yards on just nine attempts, while Jamauri Bogan added 77 yards and a score. If USC doesn't close those gaps, Love is going to pad his Heisman resume in a major way Saturday night.

 
Posted : September 7, 2017 9:28 am
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Big 12 Report - Week 2
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Charlotte at Kansas State

The 49ers head west, but they'll be unlikely to find gold at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan. The Wildcats are favored by 36 1/2 points as of early Thursday morning. Charlotte was tripped up 24-7 at Eastern Michigan last week, while K-State powered past FCS Central Arkansas by a 55-19 count, covering a 24 1/2-point spread. The 49ers are 1-6 ATS over their past seven non-conference tilts, while the Wildcats are just 1-4 ATS over their past five against teams with a losing record. However, K-State has covered four of their past five overall. The 'over' is also an impressive 4-0 at home for the Wildcats, and 5-2 across their past seven out of conference.

Iowa at Iowa State

It's time for the latest installment of the Battle for the Hawkeye State, and lately it has been a low-scoring rivalry. The 'under' is 9-2-1 over the past 12 meetings in this series. The under is also 4-1-1 in Iowa's past six against Big 12 foes, while going 10-2 across their past 12 following a straight-up victory by more than 20 points. However, they're just 6-13 ATS in the past 19 meetings against the Cyclones. I-State exorcised some demons with 42-24 revenge beating of FCS Northern Iowa, a team that stung them in the opener last season. Can they do the same to Iowa? The Hawkeyes won 42-3 in last season's battle.

East Carolina at West Virginia

The Pirates of ECU hit the road for Morgantown, and they'll find an angry West Virginia team awaiting them. And really, East Carolina doesn't need any additional challenges after getting waylaid at home by FCS James Madison last weekend. The Pirates didn't just lose, they were flattened by 20 points. The Pirates are just 9-25 ATS over the past 34 games, 5-16 ATS in the past 21 following a straight-up loss and 0-6 ATS in their past six road outings. West Virginia hasn't been much better lately, covering just one of the past six at home and none of their past four non-conference tilts.

Texas Christian at Arkansas

Arkansas opened as a 1 1/2-point favored, but the public has quickly flipped that to TCU now being favored by a field goal. The money is on TCU despite the fact they're 2-8 ATS over their past 10 overall, 1-4ATS in their past five non-conference battles and 2-5 ATS in their past seven against the SEC. Arkansas isn't much better, however, going 3-7 ATS across the past 10 outside of the SEC, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five against a winning team and 0-6 ATS in the past six following a straight-up win. Total bettors might like the 'under', which is 5-1 over the past six road games for the Horned Frogs and 4-1 across the past five overall. The under is also 4-0 in Arkansas' past four outside of the SEC, 6-2 over their past eight at home and 9-4 in their past 13 following a cover.

San Jose State at Texas

The Spartans head down to Austin looking to add to the woes of the Longhorns. San Jose State has split their first two games, losing to South Florida while topping FCS Cal Poly SLO. However, they have covered both outings and the 'under' is a perfect 2-0 so far. Texas enters as a 26 1/2-point favorite despite the fact they were dumped by a mediocre Maryland club at home by a 51-41 count. It's not exactly the start 'Horns fans envisioned to kick off the Tom Herman era. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS over their past six overall while the Longhorns have failed to cover in four straight. The 'under' is 7-2 over the past nine for San Jose, including 6-2 over their past eight out of conference. The under is 5-1 in the past six at home for Texas, 7-1 in their past eight overall and 4-0 over their past four against Mountain West foes.

Central Michigan at Kansas

Central Michigan barely scraped by FCS Rhode Island, as they needed overtime to push past the Rams. Kansas also squared off against an FCS foe, topping Southeast Missouri State. As such, the Jayhawks are favored by six points to win on Saturday, but do you know when the last time KU won back-to-back games? The last time Kansas won two straight was when they kicked off the 2011 season, beating McNeese State and Northern Illinois. It's been a while, so moneyline bettors might find the Chips to be a solid value on Saturday despite the road trip.

Oklahoma at Ohio State

The marquee matchup of the weekend kicks off in Columbus, as Baker Mayfield and the Sooners look to exact a little revenge against the Buckeyes. The Sooners passed their opening test against Texas-El Paso with flying colors, while the Buckeyes picked themselves up off the mat after a difficult first half in Indiana to throttle the Hoosiers by a 49-21 score. Oklahoma has covered six in a row against teams with a winning overall record while cashing in fivein a row overall. However, they're just 2-5 ATS over their past seven out of conference. Ohio State is an impressive 6-1 ATS in their past seven against Big 12 foes, although they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 overall. The Buckeyes won 45-24 in Norman as a two-point favorite. Can the Sooners return the favor?

Texas-San Antonio at Baylor

The Roadrunners were scheduled to face Houston last week, but that game was canceled due to the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. So now UTSA will kick off their 2017 season against the Bears. Baylor was stunned at home by FCS Liberty, allowing 48 points to the Flames. The Bears head into Saturday's game looking for a bounce back, favored by 16 1/2 points. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS across their past five non-conference tilts, while going just 2-6 ATS over the past eight overall. They're also 1-4 ATS in their past five after a non-cover. UTSA has managed a dismal 2-6-1 ATS mark over their past nine outings. The 'under' is 4-1 over the past five non-conference games for both schools.

 
Posted : September 7, 2017 12:18 pm
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Pac-12 Report - Week 2
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Nebraska at Oregon

The Ducks welcome the Cornhuskers to Eugene as they look for revenge after a heartbreaking 35-32 loss in Lincoln a year ago. Oregon thumped FCS Southern Utah, piling up 77 points to remind Ducks fans and alumni of recent good times and not the ugly 4-8 record of a year ago. However, are they a 14-point favorite kind of team already? The Cornhuskers have covered 14 of their past 20 games on the road, and they're 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 when stepping out of conference. The Ducks are just 3-11-1 ATS over the past 15 games overall, although they did cover a big number against SUU in the opener. They're also 22-10 ATS in their past 32 after a cover in the previous outing, and they're 3-1-1 ATS in their past five matchup against Big Ten foes. The 'over' is 10-3 in the past 13 out of conference games for Nebraska, while the over is 47-17-1 in the past 65 in Eugene for UO.

Hawaii at UCLA

The Warriors are off to a 2-0 SU/1-0-1 ATS start, averaging 39.5 points per game (PPG) through their first two outings. Can they pull off a miracle and win at UCLA on Saturday? Speaking of miracles, that's exactly what the Bruins pulled off last Sunday. Down 44-10, Heisman hopeful QB Josh Rosen engineered one of the biggest comebacks in NCAA history to give the Bruins a 45-44 win. The Rainbow Warriors are 8-1 ATS over their past nine against Pac-12 foes, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven on the road. The Bruins are a dismal 2-7 ATS over their past nine at home while going 4-11 ATS in the past 15 overall. In addition, they're a dismal 0-6 ATS in the past six non-conference outings.

Stanford at Southern California

It's a collision at the Coliseum, as Pac-12 co-favorites Stanford and USC battle for early-season conference supremacy. The Cardinal buried Rice down in Australia, and they're mighty rested for their tilt against the Trojans. USC won but did not cover against Western Michigan, although they were able to pile up 49 points in the victory. The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS over the past six road games, and they're 21-10 ATS across the past 31 games overall. They also own an impressive 41-20-1 ATS mark over the past 62 inside the conference. While the Trojans are an impressive 5-0 ATS over their past five inside the league and 6-2 ATS over their past eight overall, USC is just 3-8 ATS over the past 11 meetings while the road team is 9-4 ATS over the past 13 outings. Stanford is also 6-1 ATS across their past seven trips to the L.A. Coliseum.

Minnesota at Oregon State

The Golden Gophers barely escaped against Buffalo in their opener, winning just 17-7 despite being 22 1/2-point favorites. The Beavers of Oregon State bounced back last week with a 35-32 win over Portland State, but they failed to cover for the second time in as many games on the young season. Defense has been an issue for Oregon State, allowing 45.0 PPG. Offense isn't a problem, as they're averaging 31.0 PPG. Something's gotta give in this one, as Oregion State is an impressive 6-1 ATS in their past seven homegames, while Minnesota is an outstanding 6-0-3 ATS across their past nine road outings.

Utah at Brigham Young

Beehive State rivals square off at Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo as the Utes invade. Utah enters as a slight favorite on the road, a spot they have flourished in recent times. The Utes are 13-5 ATS over the past 18 road games and 13-4 ATS across their past 17 non-conference tilts. The Cougars have covered five of their past six Pac-12 battles, but they're a dismal 2-5 ATS across the past seven at home while going 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference battles. Utah has dominated this series in recent years, going 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings and 8-2 ATS over the past 10 trips to Provo. The underdog is an impressive 16-5 ATS over the past 21 games in this series, while the road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall.

Boise State at Washington State

Boise State edged a solid Troy side by a 24-13 score in its opener, giving them a nice test heading to the Palouse to take on Washington State. These teams met last season with the Broncos earning a 31-28 win on the Smurf Turf last September. The Broncos are still just 2-7 ATS over the past nine games despite the Week 1 cover, and they're a dismal 1-6 ATS over the past seven tries against a Pac-12 side. They're also 1-7 ATS across the past eight vs. winning teams, which might be why the line has moved from 7 1/2 to 10 1/2 as of early Thursday morning. Still, Washington State is just 1-4-1 ATS over the past six against Mountain West foes and they have failed to cover four in row dating back to last season.

Houston at Arizona

Houston had its season opener postponed due to the after effects of Hurricane Harvey, so they kick off their 2017 campaign in Tucson instead. The line opened with the Cougars favored by 3 1/2, but has been quickly bet down to just one point. Houston has posted a 19-6-1 ATS mark over the past 26 road games, and 7-2 ATS in the past nine out of conference battles. However, they have covered just once over the past five against Pac-12 schools. The Wildcats aren't much better, though, going 3-12 ATS over their past 15 games and 1-4 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts. Total bettors look to Arizona for an 'over', as it has cashed in 12 of their past 16 at home.

San Diego State at Arizona State

The Aztecs of San Diego State opened with a subpar 38-17 win over UC Davis, not even coming close to covering a 35-point number. Arizona State wasn't much better in a choppy performance against New Mexico State, narrowly escaping with a 37-31 win. However, the public likes AZ State at home, betting them up from 1 1/2 to 3 1/2 points. That's likely because the Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS over their past 10 at home, while San Diego State is just 4-13 ATS over the past 17 against Pac-12 foes and 3-10-1 ATS over their past 14 games outside of the Mountain West Conference.

Other Games

Texas State at Colorado
Weber State at California
Montana at Washington

 
Posted : September 7, 2017 12:20 pm
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College Football Situational Betting Tips Week 2
By Kyle Hunter
Bangthebook.com

Week two is one of the most interesting weeks in college football. It’s the best time to try to profit from overreactions. Those aren’t necessarily bad scheduling spot games, so you won’t find overreaction games in this article, but stay tuned to BangtheBank Radio all week for lots of thoughts on some of those opportunities.

The goal of this article is to highlight a few scheduling spots that could be tricky for one of the teams involved in that particular contest. My hope is that by reading this article, you’ll be able to see the process and spot these types of situations in the future.

Oklahoma State at South Alabama

Oklahoma State blew out Tulsa in week one. The Cowboys showed off that prolific offense that is one of the best in the country all throughout that contest. Now, Oklahoma State travels to Mobile to take on South Alabama. Oklahoma State obviously isn’t accustomed to traveling to Mobile to take on a Sun Belt team.

This is one of those spots where it would be easy for Oklahoma State to show up and give a C effort and win by 14-17 points. Why would they care a lot about this game? They have bigger fish to fry. The caveat here is South Alabama is still a Sun Belt team, and they are badly overmatched in terms of talent.

Hawaii at UCLA

This is one of those contests where you could easily say both teams are in difficult situations. Hawaii is in a tough scheduling spot because they traveled all the way to Massachusetts for their first game before going home to take on Western Carolina last week. Now, they come back to the mainland for a game at UCLA.

UCLA is coming off a ridiculous comeback from a 44-10 deficit late in the third quarter. That was more about Texas A&M handing the game away than anything else though. Will UCLA come into this game feeling pretty good about themselves and looking forward to two tricky matchups on the road in the next two weeks? Trusting Jim Mora Jr. to have his team ready to play is a dangerous proposition.

Minnesota at Oregon State

Oregon State was humiliated in the first game of the season at Colorado State. A national television audience saw that game, and Oregon State clearly has something to prove. Minnesota takes a rare trip to Corvallis, which is a little off the beaten path. This is a trickier place to play than most realize. P.J. Fleck is a great coach, but this is a major test for him and his Gophers. I was a little surprised the line came out where it did. I thought I might catch Oregon State plus some points here. It will be interesting to see where this line goes later this week.

USF at UConn

USF has been very underwhelming in their first two games of the season. Charlie Strong’s team is finding it much tougher to run the football than everyone expected. Marlon Mack was a stud, and he’s tough to replace. USF is still a good team, but this isn’t a good spot for them. Because of Hurricane Irma, the kickoff time was changed to 10:30 am EST. I understand why the change was made, but I’m not sure a really early start time against a bad opponent makes for a situation where we get a max effort from USF. The question here is how much do you trust UConn?

Eastern Michigan at Rutgers

Rutgers had a huge opportunity to show a national television audience that they have made a significant step in the right direction last week, and they did it with a good performance against Washington. I did point out in last week’s article here that Washington was in a bad scheduling spot in that contest. This time around, I think it is Rutgers who is in a bit of a letdown spot.

Rutgers players have to be encouraged by the way they played against Washington. Eastern Michigan was sloppy in their win over lowly Charlotte. Eastern Michigan now goes to Rutgers, and it is hard to see Rutgers getting too excited about playing the Eagles after having such a huge matchup last weekend. Eastern Michigan is an improving program. Is this enough points? The public is likely to take Rutgers later this week, so let’s see how high this line goes.

 
Posted : September 8, 2017 1:41 pm
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Auburn at Clemson
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

In a dandy Week 2 showdown between SEC and ACC powers, Clemson (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) will welcome Auburn to Death Valley on Saturday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.. As of early Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Dabo Swinney’s club installed as a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 55 or 55.5. Gamblers could take Auburn on the money line for a +180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

Clemson cruised to a 56-3 win over Kent State as a 38-point home favorite in its opener, looking every bit the part of a legit national title contender again. My only question about Clemson coming into the season was its quarterback play and inexperience at the position. But junior Kelly Bryant was outstanding in his first career start, completing 16-of-22 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown with one interception. Bryant rushed seven times for 77 yards and one TD.

After watching Bryant and coming to the conclusion that Clemson is going to get solid (perhaps elite) QB play, I bumped it up from sixth in my preseason Power Rankings to No. 2.

The 59 combined points went ‘over’ the 52-point total. Clemson enjoyed a 678-120 advantage over Kent State in total offense. True freshman running back Travis Etienne rushed for a game-high 81 yards and one TD on eight attempts. Tavien Feaster ran six times for 69 yards and one TD, while C.J. Fuller finished with 51 rushing yards and two TDs on seven carries. Junior wide receiver Deon Cain had a pair of receptions for 70 yards and one TD.

The win improved Clemson’s record to 32-2 in its last 34 games, and 21 of those victories have come by double-digit margins. During Swinney’s 10-year tenure, CU owns a 31-22-1 spread record in 54 games as a home favorite. It hasn’t been a single-digit home ‘chalk’ since beating Ga. Tech by a 43-24 count as a 7.5-point favorite early in the 2015 campaign. Clemson has covered the number in three straight games as a single-digit home favorite.

I’ve often said that the best move of Swinney’s career was hiring away defensive coordinator Brent Venables from Oklahoma after Geno Smith and West Virginia put up a 70-spot on CU at the 2012 Orange Bowl. In the years since then, Clemson’s defense from 2012-16 has given up 24.8. 22.2, 16.7, 21.7 and 18.0 points per game. In other words, this unit has been extremely salty and was one of the best in the country in ’14 and ’16.

This year’s version brought back seven starters, including sophomore DT Dexter Lawrence, a second-team All-ACC pick as a true freshman when he recorded 78 tackles, seven sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, six QB hurries and one pass broken up. Junior LB Kendall Joseph was a third-team All-ACC selection in ’16 as he racked up 124 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 10 TFL’s, one interception and five hurries. Also, there’s junior safety Van Smith, who had 114 tackles, two interceptions, two PBU and 5.5 TFL’s last year. Unfortunately for CU, Smith is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. AU with a knee injury.

Auburn (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) opened Gus Malzahn’s fifth season as head coach with a 41-7 win over Ga. Southern as a 34.5-point home favorite. The line closed at 34.5 at most spots, but it was at -35 for a good chunk of the summer. However, for late Thursday and most of Friday, the number dipped south of 34 and actually spent some time at 33, but it was back up to at least 34 for nearly all of Saturday and was 34.5 or 35 in the last hour or two of wagering. Therefore, bettors either won our lost for our purposes based on when they made a bet. The 48 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 59-point tally.

Auburn enjoyed a 535-78 advantage in total offense over Ga. Southern. The Eagles got a scoop-and-score fumble return for their lone TD.

Malzahn did a good of keeping secret three suspensions for Week 1. Kamryn Pettway, a first-team All-SEC RB last year, didn’t dress along with former starter and current back-up QB Sean White. Also, WR Kyle Davis served a one-game suspension. Davis and Pettway will play Saturday at Clemson, but White’s suspension will last at least one more game.

Kerryon Johnson, who along with UGA’s Sony Michel and multiple Alabama players is one of the SEC’s premier back-up RBs, rushed for 136 yards and one TD on 16 carries. But Johnson left the game early with a hamstring issue that has him listed as ‘doubtful’ this week. Sophomore RB Kam Martin stepped up in his absence, running for 136 yards and one TD on two fewer attempts.

In his Auburn debut, Baylor transfer QB Jarrett Stidham hit on 14-of-24 passes for 185 yards and two TDs with one interception. Junior WR Will Hasting brought down four catches for 68 yards and one TD.

Although this will only be Stidham’s fifth career start, gamblers shouldn’t think that this stage is going to overwhelm him. That’s because as a true freshman in his first career start two years ago on an unbeaten and second-ranked Baylor team, Stidham led the Bears to a 31-24 win at Kansas State by throwing for 419 yards and three TDs without an interception. Two weeks later, he led the Bears to a 44-34 win at then-unbeaten (in November!) and fourth-ranked Oklahoma State.

Clemson is vying for its fourth consecutive win over Auburn in this rivalry that dates back to 1899 and has featured 50 all-time meetings. CU has never won four in a row over AU.

When these schools met at Jordan-Hare Stadium in last season’s opener on The Plains, Clemson collected a 19-13 win over Auburn. Malzahn’s team couldn’t hit on two Hail Mary passes from CU’s 40 in the final seconds, but AU covered the spread as an eight-point home underdog. The 32 combined points went ‘under’ the 62.5-point total.

Pettway didn’t play in that game, nor did Stidham while sitting out his transfer year. Johnson rushed for 94 yards and one TD on 23 totes. His nine-yard run to paydirt with 3:22 remaining made it a one-possession game.

As a road underdog since Malzahn took over as HC in ’13, Auburn has compiled a 4-5 spread record in nine such spots.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Games cancelled due to Hurricane Irma include Memphis at UCF, Miami at Arkansas State, No. Colorado at Florida, ULM at FSU and South Florida at UConn.

Louisville junior CB Jaire Alexander is listed as ‘doubtful’ at North Carolina due to a leg injury. Alexander garnered fourth-team All-American honors in ’16 when he recorded 38 tackles, five interceptions, nine PBU, three QB hurries and one TFL. The Cardinals were favored by 9.5 points late Friday afternoon. They won a 35-28 decision vs. Purdue in Indianapolis last week, while UNC dropped a 35-30 decision to California as a double-digit home favorite.

Northwestern fifth-year senior Keith Watkins is 'out' for the season for a second straight year. This is a devastating blow for the Wildcats and especially Watkins, who was a fourth-team preseason All Big Ten selection in Phil Steele’s magazine. Pat Fitzgerald’s team will be missing two other defensive starters in Durham as well, senior DE Xavier Washington and DB Trae Williams. Washington, who had 48 tackles, 4.5 sacks, three TFL’s and four QB hurries last year, is suspended indefinitely. Williams is out indefinitely with an Achilles injury. Williams produced 42 tackles, one interception, seven PBU and one TFL.

Northwestern is a short favorite (2.5 or 3 as of early Friday afternoon) Saturday at Duke, which will be looking to avenge a 24-13 loss in Evanston last season. The Blue Devils will likely be without starting redshirt freshman WR Scott Bracey, who is ‘doubtful’ with a lower-body injury. Bracey was the prize of David Cutcliffe’s 2016 recruiting haul, as he was rated as a four-star athlete and the No. 2 overall player in the state of Virginia. He made his debut in last week’s 60-7 home win over NC Central, catching two balls for 27 yards receiving.

Ohio State coach Urban Meyer verbally attacked both Texas HC Tom Herman and South Carolina HC Will Muschamp during an interview this week, saying he is “driven insane” when first-year coaches make excuses. The part about Muschamp involved the former UF coach’s quote at his final presser after a gut-wrenching loss at FSU. When Muschamp asked the media boys if they had any more questions, one responded with, “How would like to be remembered at Florida?” Muschamp replied, “we were asked to clean up the program and change the culture. We did that.” Meyer is obviously bitter about that remark, but he has a very convenient memory. Clearly he forgets that any bad blood between Meyer and Muschamp was started by Meyer, who turned Muschamp and Florida into the NCAA for alleged violations stemming from a player that both the Gators and Buckeyes were hotly pursuing. As it turned out, the NCAA launched an investigation and found ZERO wrongdoing. In other words, Meyer falsely accused his former school that he quit on (twice!) and attacked the integrity and character of Muschamp. I could go on a rant and write a novel about how many integrity and character issues Meyer has, but we’ll just allow him to keep making an ass of himself on his own.

 
Posted : September 8, 2017 7:04 pm
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College Football Week 2 Best Bets
Vegasinsider.com

The opening week of full college football action brought plenty of surprises, some shocking upsets, and the repetitive refrain of it looking like Alabama is the team to beat once again. The Crimson Tide steamrolled #3 Florida State in the 2nd half of that game and we will likely see Nick Saban's program atop the polls for weeks to come.

Alabama's got a “cupcake” game this week as 44-point home favorites vs. Fresno State, but there are still plenty of huge games elsewhere on the betting board in Week 2. #2 Ohio State hosts #5 Oklahoma in the national spotlight on Saturday night, while ranked foes from Auburn and Clemson do battle, as will Georgia/Notre Dame, and Stanford/USC. These are the games that will get the bulk of the attention from bettors this weekend and it's two of them that I've definitely decided to include as bigger wagers this week. Let's get right to this week's breakdowns:

Best Bet #1: Oklahoma/Ohio State Under 63.5

The 'over' for this huge game has already gotten plenty of action as VegasInsider.com reports that more than 80% of the wagers on this total have come on the high side already. That's not surprising given that both programs put up at least 49 points each in their Week 1 victories and did so in dominant fashion. Oklahoma pulled most of their starters by halftime in a 56-7 victory, and after a slow start, Ohio State obliterated an overmatched Indiana team in the second half, en route to scoring 36 of their 49 points in the final two frames.

Yet, points shouldn't come anywhere near as easy for either side now that they are matched up against one another. Elite teams in games like this tend to not look to get into shootouts because it puts tremendous pressure on an offense to execute every single time they have the ball.

When Oklahoma or Ohio State are favorites by 20+ points there is a sense of freedom in the sizable mismatch they enjoy on offense and even with some struggles (Ohio State last week), over the course of 60 minutes the better talent typically lights up the scoreboard eventually. But match elite talent with elite talent on every possession and points all of a sudden start to be at a premium.

The Sooners defense is going to be tested a lot more then they were against UTEP last week, but they do have some film to watch from Indiana's first half successes vs. Ohio State a week ago to help them succeed here. Oklahoma also hasn't forgotten about last year's 45-24 loss to the Buckeyes a year ago and the brutal start they got off to that basically ended that game early.

Ohio State scored 35 first half points that day and basically crushed any chance Oklahoma had. However, the second half finished with 17 combined points from the two teams and I'm expecting each half to follow a similar script here. We might see 21-24 points combined each half, but that's still well below this inflated total.

Finally, even with the majority of bets being placed on the 'over' so far, this number has already dropped a full point since opening at 64.5. With Oklahoma on a 1-4 O/U run after scoring 40+, and Ohio State on a 4-10 O/U run after a win by 20+ points, expect the defenses to show up in this one.

Best Bet #2: USC -5.5

USC's 49-31 victory over Western Michigan is quite deceiving if you just look at the final score as that game was tight until the final five minutes or so. The Trojans really struggled with WMU in a game where an outright upset was a strong possibility for awhile. Eventually USC stepped up and closed the door late, but you can't help but wonder if their lackadaisical first three quarters were in part because they were looking ahead to this big game with Stanford this week.

Stanford has been off for a week after getting their season started two weeks ago with a 62-7 win over Rice. The Cardinal were impressive in that one now that the Christian McCaffrey era is over, and all week the program has been reminded about their historic upset over USC 10 years ago as 40-point underdogs. ESPN's website even had a defacto oral history on that game earlier this week as they try to stoke the flames of this rivalry even more.

However, chances are that story only irked USC even more then they already were after a disappointing performance in their opener. The Trojans have also lost to Stanford three straight times (twice in 2015) and that can't sit well to anyone involved with the USC program. USC is on a 5-1 ATS run as conference favorites of less than 7 points, and if they were looking ahead to this Stanford game, this is when they get to shine.

VegasInsider.com shows that 80%+ of the ML bets have come on Stanford so far, with just less than 80% taking the points with the Cardinal on the spread. To me that appears like many bought into the story of the 10-year anniversary of Stanford's big upset over USC that ESPN put out earlier this week and public underdogs are ones I want no part of. Throw in some revenge, a better team from top to bottom on paper, and home field advantage, and I've got no problem laying this chalk with the Trojans.

 
Posted : September 8, 2017 7:36 pm
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