Pac-12 Report - Week 2
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Nebraska at UCLA
This could be a dangerous trip for the Cornhuskers, especially if RB Rex Burkhead (knee) is unavailable. He suffered a sprained left knee in the opening game win against Southern Mississippi last weekend. If Burkhead cannot play, RB Ameer Abdullah would get the starting nod. The passing game is in good hands with QB Taylor Martinez, who grew up in Southern California. However, Martinez will be without WR Tim Marlowe (clavicle), too. For the Bruins, they opened with an impressive 49-24 win at Rice last Thursday. They are rested, more healthy, and they have an explosive offense which Nebraska better not take too lightly. The Huskers are 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning record.
Oklahoma State at Arizona
Oklahoma State absolutely annihilated Savannah State by an 84-0 score last weekend, but bettors should basically toss that game out. The FCS opponent was certainly no obstacle, and that game was nothing more than a scrimmage. We'll get a true idea of how good OK State is in their first road game. Arizona struggled last weekend against Toledo, needing overtime to dispatch the pesky Rockets. In fact, a few mental lapses by Toledo likely cost them a win. The Wildcats are still finding their way, trying to make it back to elite status. They are just 1-5 ATS in their past six home games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four games following a straight-up win. For the Cowboys, they gained an awful lot of confidence in their impressive run last season, and it should spill over into Saturday's contest. The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games against a team with a winning record.
Wisconsin at Oregon State
The Badgers looked terrible trying to close out FCS opponent Northern Iowa last weekend. They slinked past the Panthers 26-21. The good news is that RB Montee Ball recorded a rushing touchdown, his 21st straight game finding the end zone. The Beavers are playing their first game of the season, and they might have a difficult time trying to contain Ball. The Beavers start a redshirt freshman at tailback, so Oregon State could get off to a very slow start on offense, too. Last week, the one good thing the Badgers did was on rushing defense. They held NIU without a rushing first down, and just 41 yards on the ground. The last time Oregon lost a regular season road non-conference game came at Oregon in 2001. If you're not comfortable with the Badgers on the road to cover, the over might be good for you. The over has cashed in 13 of the past 18 road games for Wisconsin, and has come through in five of the past six non-conference games for Oregon State.
Southern California at Syracuse
he Orange still have to be smarting after a track meet loss to Northwestern, 42-41, at the Carrier Dome. Their reward - a matchup with No. 2 USC at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The Trojans make the cross-country trip after destroying Hawaii in the Coliseum by a 49-10 score. The Orange defense allowed 337 total yards vs. NW, with most of the damage coming through the air. QB Matt Barkley and WR Marquise Lee should shine yet again this weekend. The national championship contenders from SoCal are 4-0 ATS in their past four neutral site games, and 28-13 ATS in their past 41 non-conference games. Meanwhile, the Orange are simply trying to get back to respectability. They are 0-6 ATS in their past six games overall, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven against team's with a winning record. For that, USC certainly qualifies. The Trojans have scored 30 or more points in eighth consecutive games, which is good to know if you plan to test the over of 65.
Washington at Louisiana State
The Washington Huskies slipped by visiting San Diego State by a 21-12 score in Seattle. This week's test will be much more monumental. The Huskies head to Baton Rouge, and they will be without RB Jesse Callier (knee), who is done for the season after an opening game injury. With their starting tailback down, they turn to RB Bishop Sankey to carry the mail. It is likely QB Keith Price will pass early and often, and that might be Washington's only chance to keep it somewhat close. The Bayou Bengals pounded North Texas 41-14 in their home opener in Death Valley, with RB Kenny Hilliard rolling up a career-high 141 rushing yards with two scores. The Tigers were dumped to No. 3 in the coaches' poll despite their win, so they are likely to have a chip on their shoulders. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games, while the Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their past four road contests, and 1-5 ATS in their past six overall. Geaux with the Tigers!
Duke at Stanford
Duke looked like a legitimate FBS conference team with a convincing 46-26 victory over Florida International last weekend at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham. In fact, it might have been the most impressive victory in David Cutcliffe's tenure as head coach. QB Sean Renfree was impressive, throwing for 290 yards and two scores. WR Conner Vernon is one of the most dangerous, and underrated, players in the nation. He rolled up 180 yards and a score in the win vs. FIU. Meanwhile, Stanford posted an uninspiring 20-17 win over San Jose State in the first game of the post-Andrew Luck era. The Cardinal, still nationally-ranked, are not expected to be as prolific on offense, but they will still be a force. The biggest threat to Duke's somewhat leaky defense will be RB Stepfan Taylor, who gouged SJSU for 116 yards and a score last weekend. A few things to note - Duke scored two defensive/special teams scores last week to make their total more impressive than perhaps it was. Duke has not won consecutive games to start a season since 1998, and their last win against a ranked team came in 1994. Duke's last win on the road against a ranked team, oddly enough, came against Stanford way back in 1971. The Cardinal will be a popular pick among those looking to recoup some lost funds from the afternoon, and the public is still giving Duke no love despite their impressive opening game win.
Fresno State at Oregon
You have to respect Fresno State, who has been a mid-major unafraid to play teams any time, anywhere. However, lately they have fallen on somewhat hard times, and are no longer striking fear into the hearts of their more recognized opponents. Last weekend, Oregon QB Marcus Mariota shredded Sun Belt visitor Arkansas State, leading his Ducks to a 50-3 lead before Oregon took their foot off the gas pedal. Bettors collectively said 'smh', as Ark State picked up garbage points in the second half to make the score somewhat respectable, and in doing so they ended up busting through the swinging gate for a backdoor cover. Will that happen again this weekend? Oregon certainly has the offense to score early and frequently. However, if they get out to an early lead and subsequent rest, Fresno has a solid offense with the triumvirate of QB Derek Carr, RB Robbie Rouse and WR Davante Adams. They won't necessarily hang with Oregon, but they could score into the 30's like Arkansas State did. The heavily favored Ducks are 1-4-2 ATS in their past seven home games, while the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their past six road games. However, the over might be more up the alley of bettors. The over is 6-1 in the past seven road games for Fresno State, and 7-1 in their past eight games against Pac-12 opponents. The over is 23-5-1 in the past 29 home games for Oregon.
Illinois at Arizona State
The big thing to keep an eye on heading into this game is the health of Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase (ankle). He suffered a sprained ankle against Western Michigan last weekend early in the second half. If Scheelhaase cannot go, the less experienced Reilly O'Toole would start. As such, it might be a monumental task to ask a backup QB for a road victory in a difficult venue. It will be strength against strength when AZ State has the ball, as they intend to run the football. The Sun Devils scorched NAU for 305 rushing yards in their 63-6 win last week, but they'll now face an Illinois defense which ranked second in the Big Ten last season. The under looks like a mighty attractive play, as it has cashed in 13 of the past 16 games for Illinois. The under is also 7-0 in the past seven non-conference games for the Illini. For the Sun Devils, the under is 7-2 in their past nine games against Big Ten opponents, and 10-4 in their past 14 non-conference games.
Betting Preview: Auburn at Mississippi St
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Auburn at Mississippi St
Auburn comes in off a tough 26-19 loss to Clemson while Mississippi State had a much easier time against Jackson State, winning 56-9. We should find out much more about Mississippi State this week against a quality opponent, but they should hold up well against the Tigers. Auburn struggled to stop the run against Clemson, allowing 320 yards on 52 attempts, and also gave up 208 yards passing. The only positive with Auburn’s stop unit was in the red zone as they held Clemson to four field goals. They did however allow Clemson to convert on 8-of-17 third downs and pick up 28 first downs. On offense, Auburn ran the ball fairly well with 180 yards, but the passing game struggled with first-year quarterback Keihl Frazier. Frazier was just 11-of-27 for 194 yards, and two of his completions went for a combined 92 yards. That won’t cut it in the SEC, and I don’t expect a huge improvement on the road this week in Starkville. I am not sold on the Mississippi State offense, however, even though they have some experience at quarterback with Tyler Russell. The best way to play this one may be the under. I expect both teams to try to do their damage on the ground. I don’t think we’ll see a crazy shootout like last year (Auburn won 41-34). It should be more like the last time Auburn visited Starkville and came away with a 17-14 win with Cam Newton at the helm in 2010.
Florida at Texas A&M: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies (+1, 49.5)
After its season opener was postponed by Hurricane Isaac, Texas A&M finally gets underway Saturday at what is sure to be an electric Kyle Field. The Aggies make their long-awaited move to the Southeastern Conference by hosting No. 23 Florida.
Texas A&M has a new coach in Kevin Sumlin, a redshirt freshman quarterback in Johnny Manziel and one of the most daunting schedules possible. But excitement is at an all-time high.
The Gators weren’t overly impressive in their season-opening 27-14 victory over Bowling Green, but they did get clarity at quarterback when Jeff Driskel won the starting job over Jacoby Brissett.
LINE: Texas A&M opened as high as -2.5 for its SEC debut but money on the Gators has flipped the spread, currently sitting with the Aggies as +1 home underdogs.
WEATHER: The forecast for Kyle Field is calling for winds reaching speeds of up to 18 mph, blowing NNE. Temperatures will be in a mid 80s with a 20 percent chance of rain.
ABOUT FLORIDA (1-0, 0-0 SEC): Coach Will Muschamp picked Driskel largely because of his mobility and knack for extending plays. He went 10-of-16 for 114 yards against the Falcons, including a 50-yard scoring strike to Frankie Hammond Jr. that stretched Florida’s lead to 10 in the fourth quarter. Running back Mike Gillislee ran for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries, giving Florida the power-running identity it had lacked. The Gators have one of the best linebacking corps in the SEC and cornerback Marcus Roberson is a ballhawk who made a key interception against Bowling Green.
ABOUT TEXAS A&M (0-0, 0-0 SEC): Manziel will be the first Aggies freshman to start a season opener. As he tries to run Sumlin’s up-tempo offense, he’ll have the luxury of leaning on a running game led by Christine Michael. The senior was on pace for a 1,200-yard season last year until tearing up his knee, but is fully healthy now. Freshman running back Trey Williams wowed observers throughout fall camp. All-American left tackle Luke Joeckel anchors a strong offensive line that should clear holes and give Manziel time to find wide receiver Ryan Swope (180 career catches). Defensive end Damontre Moore (17.5 tackles for loss last year) leads a unit replacing five starters.
TRENDS:
* Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Aggies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Gators' last four road games.
* Over is 15-6-1 in Aggies' last 22 games in September.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The all-time series is tied 1-1, Florida winning at home in 1962 and the Aggies claiming a Sun Bowl victory in 1977. Florida is 1-7-2 all-time in games played in Texas.
2. Sumlin’s offense at Houston last season ranked No. 1 nationally in passing yards, total yards and scoring (49.3).
3. Florida was picked to finish third in the SEC East, while A&M was selected fifth in the SEC West.
Georgia at Missouri: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers (+2, 54)
Missouri’s much-anticipated Southeastern Conference debut didn’t need any extra juice. But with seventh-ranked Georgia coming to a sold-out Faurot Field on Saturday, Tigers defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson took a swipe at the Bulldogs, calling their style of play “old-man football.”
Georgia didn’t take the bait and get involved in a trash-talking war, and Richardson was promptly banned from talking to the media. But it’s another subplot to this intriguing matchup pitting Mizzou’s high-octane spread attack against Georgia’s traditional pro-style offense. The Bulldogs could have trouble containing Tigers dual-threat QB James Franklin after Georgia allowed Buffalo’s signal-caller to run for 89 yards on 14 carries.
Missouri will be hard-pressed to stop Georgia freshman Todd Gurley, who amassed 227 yards and three touchdowns on 10 touches (100 yards on eight carries, 127 yards on two kickoff returns).
LINE: Missouri opened as high as +3.5 but have been bet down to +2. The total has dropped from 55 to 54 points.
WEATHER: The forecast for Memorial Stadium is calling for a chance of thunderstorms with a 47 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s with winds blowing WSW at 6 mph.
ABOUT NO. 7 GEORGIA (1-0, 0-0 SEC): The Bulldogs were picked to repeat as SEC East champions. Quarterback Aaron Murray is a darkhorse Heisman candidate who threw for 258 yards and three scores without an interception in Georgia’s 45-23 victory over Buffalo. The Bulldogs played without three suspended starters - safety Bacarri Rambo, linebacker Alec Ogletree and cornerback Sanders Commings. Commings and outside linebacker Chase Vasser remain suspended for Saturday, with coach Mark Richt yet to clarify the status of Rambo and Ogletree. Wide receiver Marlon Brown (hamstring), cornerback Malcolm Mitchell (ankle) and running back Richard Samuel (hip) all were limited in practice, but expected to play.
ABOUT MISSOURI (1-0, 0-0 SEC): The Tigers’ 62-10 victory over Southeast Louisiana might have been too easy as Missouri led 28-0 after running 12 plays. The Tigers scored on an interception return, a fumble return and two punt returns by Marcus Murphy, the SEC’s Special Teams Player of the Week. Franklin has an array of dangerous targets, including senior wideout T.J. Moe and freshman Dorial-Green Beckham, the nation’s No. 1 recruit. Each caught three balls in the opener. Missouri was picked to finish fourth in the SEC East, behind Georgia, South Carolina and Florida.
TRENDS:
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in September.
* Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs' last five games in September.
* Over is 4-1 in Tigers' last five games in September.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Georgia won the only previous meeting 14-0 in the 1960 Orange Bowl.
2. Mizzou RB Kendial Lawrence has run for 492 yards over his last five games.
3. Tigers LB Will Ebner (neck) and G Jack Meiners (knee) are listed as questionable.
Georgia at Missouri
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Missouri is poised to make its SEC debut Saturday night at home against Georgia in a crucial SEC East showdown. Most betting shops opened the Bulldogs as 3½-point favorites.
The line got down to as low as 1½ at a few offshores but as of Friday afternoon, most spots had UGA favored by 2½. The total is 54½ and bettors can take the Tigers to win outright for a plus-115 return (risk $100 to win $115).
The rest of the SEC East will certainly be rooting for Missouri (1-0 straight up, 0-0 against the spread) to successfully break into the league. That’s because Georgia (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) essentially goes into the season with a one-game lead over the rest of the division due to an advantageous schedule.
For the second straight year, Mark Richt’s team will not have to play the SEC West’s Big Three of Alabama, LSU and Arkansas. Meanwhile, the rest of the East, with the lone exception of Vanderbilt, has to play at least one of those schools and South Carolina must face Arkansas and LSU.
But my theory of UGA’s invisible one-game lead disappears if it has to tote a loss back home to Athens.
Speaking of Athens, four Georgia starters are expected to be left there due to suspensions. Bacarri Rambo, Sanders Commings, Chase Vasser and Alec Ogletree are reportedly suspended, although Richt has attempted to play coy on this topic.
What we know for certain is that this quartet didn’t dress in Week 1. Plus, Rambo’s high-school coach has confirmed to reporters that his suspension is for four games. The other players are expected to complete two-game suspensions this weekend.
Georgia failed to cover the number in Saturday’s 45-23 win over Buffalo as a 38-point home ‘chalk.’ Freshman running back Todd Gurley stole the show by scoring three touchdowns, including a 100-yard kickoff return. Gurley needed only eight carries to produce 100 rushing yards and a pair of scoring runs from 10 and 55 yards out.
Junior QB Aaron Murray completed 15-of-26 passes for 258 yards and three TDs without an interception. Tavarres King hauled in six receptions for 117 yards and a 63-yard TD grab.
Richt had to be concerned with his defense, though. The Bulls had 347 yards of total offense and rushed for 199 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Dawgs will have to get a better effort defensively to emerge from Columbia unscathed.
Missouri dealt out woodshed treatment to SE Louisiana in the form of a 62-10 clubbing in a non-lined matchup against an FCS school. James Franklin appeared to be fully recovered from offseason shoulder surgery, connecting on 13-of-21 throws for 131 yards and one TD without an interception. Franklin rushed six times for 39 yards, but gamblers can expect to see him using his legs more often this week.
Kendial Lawrence rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a pair of TDs. T.J. Moe had three receptions for 26 yards and one score, while freshman sensation Dorial Green-Beckham had three catches for 32 yards. ‘DGB’ was considered the No. 1 prep player in America by most recruitniks and Gary Pinkel’s is hoping for immediate contributions from his six-foot, six-inch WR.
While UGA is dealing with personnel issues in the form of suspensions, Mizzou is trying to overcome a rash of injuries to its offensive line. Senior OG Jack Meiners is ‘questionable’ with a knee injury, while senior OG Travis Ruth is ‘out’ for the season. Also, reserve OG Mark Hill and reserve OT Taylor Chappell have both been lost to season-ending injuries.
Since 2003, Missouri has only been a home underdog nine times. The Tigers have compiled a 5-4 spread record in those situations.
During Richt’s 12-year tenure at UGA, the Dawgs have gone 18-12-1 ATS in 31 games as road favorites.
Kickoff in Columbia is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Kent St. senior WR Tyshon Goode is ‘doubtful’ at Kentucky with a hamstring injury. Goode was the Flashes’ second-leading receiver in 2011 with 24 catches for 316 yards and two touchdowns. The Wildcats are going to be without their two best RBs with both Coshik Williams (back) and Josh Clemons (knee) ‘out.’ UK is a seven-point home favorite and the total is 44.
When Western Kentucky played at LSU last year as a 41½-point underdog, it took the cash in a 42-9 loss. The Tigers were in a classic letdown spot one week after beating Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium. This season the Hilltoppers, who returned nine starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that finished 7-5, go to Tuscaloosa to take on the Crimson Tide as 39-point puppies. Once again, Western Ky. catches its opponent in a letdown (and look-ahead) situation with ‘Bama coming off the big win over Michigan with a trip to Arkansas on deck.
Although the game will be played in East Rutherford at Giants Stadium rather than at the Carrier Dome, it’s fair to classify this as a road favorite spot for Southern Cal against Syracuse. On Lane Kiffin’s watch, the Trojans are 4-3 ATS as road ‘chalk.’ I’ve been hesitant all week to pull the trigger on a Syracuse play (+26 at most books as of late Friday afternoon), but I certainly lean to the Orange. Doug Marrone’s squad lost a 38-17 decision at USC last year. I made the number 21.
Nebraska star RB Rex Burkhead is ‘out’ at UCLA due to a sprained MCL. The Cornhuskers, who have thrived under Bo Pelini with a 9-4-1 spread record as road favorites, are favored by 5½ over the Bruins.