College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 14th, 2017 thru Saturday, September 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAF Week 3
Notre Dame was held to 55 rushing yards in 20-19 home loss to Georgia LW. ND won its last five games with Boston College (1-4 vs spread), with three of five wins by 4 or less points. Irish won 21-6/31-13 in last two visits here. ND is 5-10 vs spread as a road favorite under Kelly. BC lost 34-10 at home to Wake Forest last week, completing just 18-31 passes with a -4 turnover ratio. Eagles are 3-11 vs spread in last 14 home games. This is first road start for ND’s soph QB Wimbush. ACC teams are 6-8 vs spread in non-conference games this season.
UCLA allowed 563 yards in its first two games, wins over Texas A&M (45-44), Hawai’i (56-23); Bruins come east with 15 returning starters (9 on offense) and a junior QB (21 starts) who engineered huge comeback vs A&M (trailed 44-10).Memphis had its game at UCF postponed last week; Tigers ran for 319 yards in a quagmire in 37-29 opening win over ULM. Since 2012, Memphis is 7-4 as a home underdog. Pac-12 non-conference road favorites are 4-1 vs spread this season; AAC teams are 6-5 vs spread out of conference, 1-3 as an underdog.
Clemson beat Louisville last three years, by 6-3-6 points, with underdogs covering all three; Cardinals ran ball for 273 yards in LY’s game- Clemson threw for 306 yards, but Watson is in NFL now- this is first road start for junior QB Bryant. Tigers held Auburn to 117 total yards in 14-6 home win LW; Clemson had only 284 TY. Louisville is 2-1 as a home underdog under Petrino. Last three years, Clemson is 3-9 vs spread as a road favorite. Cardinals scored 82 points in winning first two games over Purdue/UNC, throwing for 771 yards.
Florida’s team had its routines disrupted this week by the hurricane- their game last week was cancelled. Gators lost their opener 33-17 to Michigan; Wolverines outgained them, 433-192. Florida had 10 guys suspended; unclear how many they get back here. Tennessee ended an 11-year skid with the Gators LY with 38-28 win; Vols lost last six visits to Gainesville (2-4 vs spread). Tennessee won its opener 42-41 in OT in Atlanta vs Ga Tech, then waxed a I-AA opponent LW. This is first true road start for Tennessee’s junior QB Dormady.
Purdue seems to be much-improved after hanging in with Louisville, then whacking Ohio U 44-21 last week. Last 5+ years, Boilermakers are 16-6-1 vs spread in true road games. Missouri gained 423 yards in loss to South Carolina LW but scored only 13 points; they were -3 in turnovers. Tigers allowed 43 points in opening 72-43 win over a I-AA opponent. Since 2011, SEC teams are 16-12-1 vs spread when facing a Big 14 opponent. This season, Big 14 underdogs are 6-0 vs spread out of conference.
Washington State won its last three games with Oregon State by 4-21-7 points; underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in last six series games. Beavers won four of last five visits to Pullman. Coogs rallied back from down 31-10 to nip Boise State in OT last week; Falk missed 2nd half with a concussion- backup Hilinski was 25-33 for 240 yards and three TD’s. Since 2013, Wazzu is 10-7 vs spread as a home favorite. Beavers are 5-7 vs spread as a road underdog under Andersen. OSU gave up 544 rushing yards in last two games, one of which was against a I-AA team.
Home team won last four Louisiana Tech-Western Kentucky games, with average total of 89.5 in the four games. Tech lost 58-44/41-38 in last two visits here. WKU was held to 244 yards in 20-7 loss at Illinois last week; Hilltoppers are 9-4 vs spread in last 13 home games. Bulldogs gave up 327 rushing yards in 57-21 home loss to Miss State LW; Tech actually lost 87 yards on one especially bad play involving a fumble and a ball that wouldn’t stop rolling. Bulldogs are 14-8 vs spread in last 22 road games; they’re 9-6 as a road underdog under Holtz.
LSU is 16-1 in its last 17 games with Mississippi State, winning last two meetings 23-20/21-19; Tigers won last eight visits to Starkville (6-2 vs spread). LSU didn’t allow BYU to move the ball over midfield in its only I-A game this season; Tigers are 6-12 vs spread in last 18 true road games, they’re 5-8 in last 13 games as a road favorite. Miss State ran ball for 327 yards LW at La Tech; since 2013, Bulldogs are 12-7 vs spread as an underdog- they’re 10-10 as a home dog under Mullen.
Not often Wyoming gets a Pac-12 opponent to visit Laramie. Oregon was up 42-14 at the half vs Nebraska last week, wound up hanging on for 42-35 win; Ducks gained total of 566 yards, running for 201. Since 2011, Oregon is 14-5 vs spread as a road favorite- they were 0-2 LY. Wyoming was held to 233 yards in opening 24-3 loss at Iowa- they ran for only 65 yards in a 27-0 win over a I-AA team LW. Cowboys are 8-5 as a home underdog under Bohl. Last 2+ years, Pac-12 teams are 15-10-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West opponent.
Kentucky won its last three games with South Carolina; underdogs are 3-1-1 vs spread in last five series games. Wildcats lost seven of last eight visits to Columbia, but covered three of last four. Gamecocks scored 66 points in winning first two games, neither of which were at home; Since ’11, South Carolina is 18-17 vs spread as a home favorite; they’re 2-2 under Muschamp. Kentucky won its opener 24-17 at Southern Miss, then beat a I-AA team 27-16 team LW. Since ’11, Wildcats are 11-19 vs spread as a road underdog- they’re 9-9 under Stoops.
Arizona State (-1) beat Texas Tech 68-55 LY in a ridiculous game where TY was 652-612; Tech threw ball for 540 yards but was -2 in turnovers. ASU gave up 279 rushing yards in 30-20 home loss to San Diego State LW; Sun Devils are 5-10 vs spread as road underdogs under Graham. Tech is 8-4 vs spread at home the last two years, 6-1 vs spread as a home favorite; they’re breaking in a new QB and haven’t played a I-A team yet- they hammered a I-AA team 56-10 two weeks ago. Since 2011, Big X teams are 13-8 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 opponent.
USC had huge 42-24 Pac-12 win over Stanford LW; will it be tough to get back up this week, for a non-league game? Teams haven’t met since 41-38 Texas win in national title game 12 years ago. Texas gave up 263 rushing yards in ugly 51-41 home loss to Maryland in its opener- they crushed San Jose State 56-0 last week. Last three years, Longhorns are 1-5 as a road underdog. Since 2011, Trojans are 24-13 vs spread as a home favorite. Since ’11, Big X teams are 13-8 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 opponent.
Aarmadillosports.com
College Football's Biggest Betting Bismatches: Week 3
By Monty Andrews
Covers.com
Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators (-5.5, 49.5)
Tennessee's improved D line vs. Florida's beleaguered O-line
The 2-0 Volunteers look to improve their standing in the competitive SEC East race as they face a Gators team that was thoroughly handled by Michigan before seeing last week’s game against Colorado State washed out due to Hurricane Irma. If this game gets played, Florida will need to find a way to improve upon a dreadful offensive showing versus the Wolverines - and that won't be easy against a Tennessee defense that enjoyed a much-needed bounceback following a gruelling season opener.
The Volunteers opened their campaign with a 42-41 double-overtime triumph over Georgia Tech - a game that resulted in 96 snaps played by the defense, with the starters absorbing most of the action. Last week's 42-7 rout of Indiana State provided some welcome relief, as head coach Butch Jones was able to rotate in the majority of his second-unit linemen and give the starters some rest. The Volunteers held the Sycamores to 3.2 YPC after surrendering a school-record 515 rushing yards in the opener.
Those starting linemen could have a field day against a Florida offensive line that was a major letdown in all areas in its opening-week showdown with Michigan. Stacking the box with regularity and throwing a variety of different secondary looks at Florida, the Wolverines limited the Gators to 11 rushing yards while racking up 11 tackles for loss, six sacks and five QB hurries. It's nothing new for Florida, which surrendered a whopping 73 sacks in 2015-16 - easily the most of any team in the conference.
Clemson Tigers at Louisville Cardinals (+3, 56)
Clemson's vaunted rush attack vs. Louisville's leaky D
All eyes will be on Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has already combined for more than 1,000 passing and rushing yards with eight touchdowns through his first two games of the season. But there's a decent two-way quarterback on the other side of the field in Clemson junior Kelly Bryant - and if the Cardinals can't find a way to slow him and the rest of the Clemson offense down, it might not matter what Jackson does against the Tigers' defense on Saturday.
Bryant has led an impressive Clemson run game that has laid waste to the Tigers' first two opponents, racking up a whopping 452 yards on just 79 carries - a 5.7 YPC that's good for third in the ACC behind Miami (9.5) and Louisville (5.9). Bryant leads the team in rushing yards (136) and touchdowns (three), and has also completed better than 68 percent of his passes through two games. The Tigers were held to 284 yards against Auburn, but had a whopping 665 the week before against Kent State.
As impressive as Jackson and the Louisville offense has been, the defense has left much to be desired. The Cardinals allowed 63 points and nearly 750 total yards to Purdue and North Carolina, two programs hardly considered Division I powers. New defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon has his work cut out for him after the Boilermakers and Tar Heels combined to complete more than 65 percent of their passes - a troubling trend that could negate Jackson's sensational skill set this weekend.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Boston College Eagles (+13.5, 49.5)
Notre Dame's late-down stinginess vs. Boston College's third-down woes
Both Notre Dame and Boston College are coming off disappointing performances, with the Fighting Irish blowing a late lead in a 20-19 loss to Georgia and the Eagles getting thumped 34-10 at Wake Forest. But with both teams looking to bounce back, look for the Fighting Irish to have the upper hand in several areas - including their ability to force teams into punting downs, something the Eagles have struggled with so far this season.
A Notre Dame team with Top 25 aspirations did what it had to do in its opener against Temple, limiting the Owls to a 5-for-17 success rate on third-down conversions en route to a 49-16 home drubbing. And while No. 15 Georgia escaped with a narrow victory last week, the Fighting Irish held the Bulldogs to a 4-of-18 conversion rate on third downs. Notre Dame's 25.7-percent third-down conversion rate allowed ranks in the top 25 nationally, and is well ahead of last year's 39-percent mark.
The Eagles, by comparison, have been subpar at extending drives on third down - and they've had an awful lot of chances to do so through two games. Boston College made good on just 9-of-24 chances in a narrow road win over Northern Illinois in its season opener, then went 6-of-17 in the loss to the Demon Deacons. The 36.6-percent success rate through two games ranks outside the top 60 in Division I, and might shrink even lower against a tough weekend opponent.
Texas Longhorns at USC Trojans (-15, 67)
Longhorns' vaunted ground attack vs. Trojans' run D issues
Expect a parade to the end zone this weekend as the high-powered Longhorns travel to L.A. Memorial Coliseum for a date with the powerhouse Trojans. Both teams are capable of hanging 40-plus points on the scoreboard but, while USC is a heavy favorite in this one, the Longhorns have a decided edge on the ground - and if the Trojans don't find a way to slow down the Texas ground attack, this game could be a lot closer than expected.
Texas atoned for an embarrassing 51-41 loss to Maryland in its opener, taking out all of its frustrations in a 56-0 whitewash of San Jose State. The Longhorns rank just outside the top 20 nationally in rushing yards per game (252), with seven of their 10 offensive touchdowns coming via the ground. Chris Warren III has been the lifeblood of the offense to date, rushing for 197 yards and two TDs on just 22 carries. The Longhorns average 5.6 YPC as a team, and its 504 total yards lead the Big 12.
It's hard to pick on a team that has racked up 91 points through its first two games, including a stunning rout of rival Stanford last week. But USC knew going in that it would face a steady diet of solid run offenses in the early going - and while it hasn't failed the test, it's hard to give the Trojans a grade higher than a C-. USC has surrendered more than 216 rushing yards per game - fourth-most in the Pac-12 - and its 5.9 YPC against is the second-highest mark in the conference.
The Dozen: Rematches Galore
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
The ACC was set to dominate this week's festivities, packing by far the best 1-2 punch that any league has supplied in the same week this early in the season. Due to Hurricane Irma's vast impact, the annual Miami-Florida State showdown that is undoubtedly the conference's top rivalry and promises to be tremendous this year has been postponed until Oct . 7.
Georgia Tech's visit to UCF in Orlando was also canceled, so the slate for the third full week of the college football season is a few dollars short due to a heinous storm that interrupted the seasons for four of Florida's top five teams. There will still be plenty to track, beginning with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner looking to cement his favorite status for a second consecutive award.
Clemson at Louisville: Lamar Jackson topped the latest Heisman odds posted by Westgate SuperBook , coming in at 9/5 ahead of Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, who made the jump to 5/1 after helping post an emphatic win at Ohio State. Sam Darnold shined in helping humble Stanford, so he's stepped to the forefront and is considered to be in the top-three at 6/1. While there are a couple standouts at Penn State and others scattered throughout the country who can realistically compete for the award, Jackson could make it difficult for anyone to consider another option while he's still working his magic. No one will be able to question his dominance if he's able to lead of the Cards past a Clemson defense that just devastated Auburn by surrendering just 117 total yards and logging 11 sacks. In fairness, although Jackson looks sharper throwing the ball and just as elusive and explosive as he was last season, he's come up with over a thousand yards of total offense against defenses at Purdue and North Carolina that appear to have major issues. Dropping Clemson would likely make the 'Ville the ACC's top-ranked team, leaving only a visit to FSU in Tallahassee as the primary obstacle between it and a berth in the College Football playoffs. Clemson won last season's classic in Death Valley 42-36 after a Jackson pass on 4th & 12 gained just 11 inside the 5-yard line. Louisville has never beaten the Tigers, dropping three straight one-possession games by a combined margin of 15 points. Last year's win provided Clemson its first cover in the series and it has been made a slight road favorite here.
Texas at USC: The Longhorns getting blitzed by Maryland in Tom Herman's head coaching debut takes some of the shine off of this one, but he did get his new group to respond this past weekend after starting QB Shane Buechele was held out due to a shoulder injury. Maybe his pixie dust was just off in Week 1. True freshman Sam Ehlinger and wide receiver Jerrod Heard led the way under center in a 55-0 annihilation of San Jose State, but the hope is that Buechele can return to give the team a fighting chance in L.A. Darnold brought the goods against Stanford and has everyone in the NFL excited following a first weekend that featured some brutal performances from pros, so he can continue to build a buzz by excelling against a defense filled with elite recruits who were lit up by the Terps to open the month. Texas hasn't played against the Trojans since the Rose Bowl National Championship back in '06, undeniably one of the best college football games ever. For this want to be even a fraction as exciting, Buechele would have to be effective in returning to the lineup.
Tennessee at Florida: The Gators canceled their home opener against Northern Colorado due to Irma, so there's going to be no dress rehearsal before the lights come on for conference play in a big game for both programs. The days when both were realistically competing for national titles are over a decade old, which is a major reason why the head coaches are on the hot seat entering this SEC opener. The Vols barely survived against Georgia Tech in their opener on a national Labor Day stage, failing to come up with a cover but surviving in OT after rallying in the fourth quarter, so Butch Jones has already bore the brunt of heavy scrutiny this season. Meanwhile, Florida's Jim McElwain has alienated his fan base after running his record to 3-8 against ranked opponents in an embarrassing 33-17 loss to Michigan where it managed just 164 yards of total offense. Neither team has chosen a quarterback they can truly trust, which makes for an interesting atmosphere in Gainesville since there is a possibility the Swamp will turn against these Gators if they start poorly. Tennessee hasn't defeated Florida in consecutive years since '04 and has won just five of the last 24 meetings between these East Division rivals.
LSU at Mississippi State: Ed Orgeron's Tigers have made things look easy thus far, beating BYU and FCS member Chattanooga by a combined score of 72-10. If recent history is any indication, the Bayou Bengals will certainly be tested here, even though a 16-1 record in Starkville would appear misleading. Mississippi State lost last year's game 23-20 despite being literally run over by Leonard Fournette, fighting until the final seconds to secure a cover after falling behind 20-3. The comebacks are also a trend since the Bulldogs fell a field goal short of an upset despite trailing 21-6 entering the fourth. Mississippi State won outright in Baton Rouge in '14, so Dan Mullen's team will certainly believe they can take advantage of their cowbells and compete effectively enough to win outright. Dual threat QB Nick Fitzgerald is experienced enough that he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the LSU defense, but he'll need help.
Kansas State at Vanderbilt: The Commodores went to Middle Tennessee and muffled an offense that produced a win at Syracuse this past weekend, but we'll know just how seriously to take this group after this one. With Alabama coming to Nashville next week, Vandy can put itself in position to be taken into account with the big boys on the heels of a win over and nationally-ranked opponent. K-State has other ideas and will be looking to prove to itself that it can compete for a Big 12 title since the competition level it has experienced thus far can't be taken seriously. Who is legitimate? Both teams are well-coached and feature effective weapons, making this a game that should absolutely be on your radar. If Wildcats QB Jesse Ertz can gain chunk yardage and prove he can beat an above-average SEC defense with his run-pass, ball-control act, it could go a long way into guys buying in against the heavyweights within their own league.
Stanford at San Diego State: The Cardinal followed up last year's loss to USC with an impressive effort at UCLA and seek a similar bounce-back game here. David Shaw's team had major issues stopping the pass against the Trojans, but face a different type of challenge in San Diego since the Aztecs rely heavily on the ground game, although they've proven creative in manufacturing wigs to get running back Rashaad Penny the ball. He scored on a 95-yard TD run and scored on a 99-yard kickoff return and a reception to fuel Saturday's road win at Arizona State, so he won't be catching Stanford by surprise. Is there enough Talent on board at San Diego State to take advantage of the extra attention he'll command? This is a Super Bowl-type game for SDSU, at home and facing the prestigious school from Palo Alto for the first time since 1988. The Aztecs are 24-6 over their last 30 games, which is identical to Stanford's record. They've won 33 consecutive games when rushing for over 200 yards and are 41-2 under head coach Rocky Long when they get that accomplished, so look for what happens at the line of scrimmage to decide this. For obvious reasons,that favors the Cardinal.
Wisconsin at BYU: The Badgers got a tougher game last weekend than anyone expected, especially since Florida Atlantic QB De'Andre Johnson didn't make the trip to Madison due to medical issue. Despite the absence of their high-profile addition, fresh off serving as one of the driving forces for the latest season of Last Chance U., the Owls managed to be productive against a Badgers defense that had looked especially stingy in holding Utah State to 10 points in their opener. We'll be able to tell whether they just had an off week against FAU since this week's opponent has had an awful time offensively in dropping games to LSU and Utah, managing just 13 points in losing both. The Cougs have gone 5-3 following their last eight "Holy Wars," but have dropped two of the last three and also started slowly under second-year head coach Kalani Sitake last season, dropping three of their first four. These teams will be playing in Provo for the first time. This series is split 1-1, but BYU's last win came in 1980.
Ole Miss at California: Cal received devastating news when Tre Watson's knee injury was confirmed to be a season-ender, leaving the Bears without a senior running back who accounted for nearly 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns last year as a versatile backfield threat. Considering they struggled with FCS member Weber State after pulling off an upset at North Carolina last week, holding serve against a visitor from the SEC will require the team's most resilient outing of the season and will tell us a lot about the impact Justin Wilcox has had in his first few months since taking over in Berkeley. Cal hosts USC next week before visiting Oregon and Washington in the two weeks after that, so it's going to be interesting to see how they fare here since a win could ultimately make the difference between making or missing a bowl game. The Rebels have defeated South Alabama and Tennessee-Martin in Oxford to open the Matt Luke era as interim head coach, but this one will decide just how successful the transition will be. Win at Cal, you're 3-0 entering a bye week. Lose at Cal, you're 2-1, with road trips to Alabama and Auburn up next.
Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh: The Cowboys look even more like a national title contender after rival Oklahoma dominated in winning at Ohio State. The Sooners are favored to be undefeated when they travel to Stillwater on Nov. 4, which means that both rivals being perfect offers the Big 12 an opportunity to capture the nation's attendance. Even though Penn State didn't cover against Pittsburgh, they took care of business against a team that has the look of a .50 team, which means Oklahoma State has to shoot for style points here. QB Mason Rudolph has been as good as advertised thus far, and although the Panthers are probably better than they're given credit for defensively, they did lose a ton of talent currently residing on NFL rosters, which means Mike Gundy's team needs to escape this game unscathed if they don't want to forfeit their national title dreams. Oklahoma State held serve against Pittsburgh last year as a 3-point favorite, winning 45-38.
UCLA at Memphis: The Tigers were unable to play last week after Florida's governor closed schools throughout the state. Memphis arrived in Orlando but then departed quickly following that announcement. If nothing else, they'll be fresh for this matchup against the visting Bruins, who have seen QB Josh Rosen dominate thus far. The Tigers replaed the fantastic Justin Fuente with offensive guru Mike Norvell, who has a pro prospect in place thanks to senior Riley Ferguson, who threw for nearly 3,700 and 32 touchdowns in replacing first-round pick Paxton Lynch. The Tigers defeated Houston in last year's regular-season finale and will be salivating at the thought of pulling off this upset. Conversely, if Jim Mora somehow loses this game against an American Athletic Conference team, he's fried chicken. It remains to be seen whether Memphis can use the fact it has nothing to lose to its advantage since UCLA faces a ton of pressure as it looks to emerge victorious from this one.
Oregon at Wyoming: Future first-round NFL draft pick Josh Allen had a dreadful first outing against Iowa, but that was on the road against a strong Big Ten defense. Even though the Ducks pulled out a home win over Nebraska last week, they didn't exactly inspire confidence in surving a 42-35 win after leading by 28 at the break. Oregon not only went scoreless in the second half, but also let up far too many big plays in the passing game, so keep an eye on this one as a proving ground for both parties. Willie Taggart's Ducks look formidable, but they'll be playing their first game on the road under his watch and are coming off a near collapse while facing an elite passer. Oregon won the only meeting to date back in 2014, but that was with Marcus Mariota lined up under center. If this is interesting, Allen could solidify his legacy in Laramie.
Notre Dame at Boston College: Brian Kelly is the worst after losses. He berates media and throws players under the bus, so his defensive act after a terrible home setback against Georgia should come as now surprise. The Fighting Irish's head coach has helped lose nine of the last 14 games, but Brandon Wimbush does look like the real deal under center. He just needs polish. The Eagles fell behind Wake Forest quickly last week and have lost five straight against Notre Dame, but three of those games have been decided by four points or less. Don't write off Steve Addazio's BC squad, but they do face an uphill battle personnel-wise.
Others: Tulsa at Toledo, Kentucky at South Carolina, Arizona State at Texas Tech, Purdue at Missouri, Baylor at Duke; Army at Ohio State; Northern Illinois at Nebraska; Colorado State at Alabama; Tulane at Oklahoma.
ACC Report - Week 3
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh
The Cowboys head east to battle the Panthers in an ACC-Big 12 matchup. OK State is 4-0 ATS over their past four non-conference battles, and 5-1 ATS in their past six trips away from home. The No. 8 team in the nation has looked very good, including a dominating 44-7 win at South Alabama last week. The Cowboys are a perfect 2-0 ATS so far. The Panthers haven't covered in two tries so far this season, and they're 0-3-1 ATS over their past four outings. They're also a dismal 5-15-1 ATS over their past 21 non-conference tilts, and 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games at home.
Connecticut at Virginia
Connecticut is back on the field for the first time since Aug. 31, which has to seem like an eternity to the Huskies. Their game last week against South Florida was wiped out as the Bulls prepared for Hurricane Irma, and that game will not be made up. They're rested and ready to go against a Virginia team that was hammered last week by visiting Indiana. The Cavaliers enter as 10-point favorites, a role they haven't been terribly successful in the recent past. They failed to cover a double-digit spread against William & Mary in their opener, and they're 0-3 ATS over their past three instances as a favorite of 10 or more points dating back to 2014. Unfortunately for UConn, they're 1-5 ATS over their past six as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Huskies are also 5-20-2 ATS across their past 27 non-conference battles, and 6-20-1 ATS in their past 27 on the road.
Baylor at Duke
It has been a nightmare start for the Bears, dropping their opener to FCS Liberty and then providing Texas-San Antonio with its first-ever victory against a Power 5 club. Baylor has failed to cover seven of their past nine overall, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference battles. On the flip side, Duke stomped FCS North Carolina Central in their opener and then they manhandled Northwestern last week by a 41-14 count to move to 2-0 SU/ATS. They're 5-0 ATS in their past five home games, and 21-6-1 ATS in the past 28 non-conference tilts. Total bettors might be interested to know the Bears have seen the 'under' cash in five of the past six non-conference games while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road. The 'over' is 2-0 this season for Duke, and 4-0 in their past four overall, although the under has hit in six of their past eight at home.
Utah State at Wake Forest
The Aggies head to Winston-Salem to battle the Demon Deacons, looking to improve after getting pounded in Madison in their first road trip. Utah State bounced back to spank Idaho State by a 51-13 count last weekend as the 'over' cashed for the second game in as many outings. Wake Forest has opened 2-0 SU/ATS, including a victory at Boston College in their conference opener. The Deacs are averaging 42.5 PPG through two games while allowing just 8.5 PPG on defense. As such, they opened as a favorite of 15 points, bet down to 13 1/2 as of Wednesday evening. Since Sept. 2015, the Deacs are 0-4 ATS over their past four as favorites of six or more points.
Virginia Tech at East Carolina
The Hokies roll into Greenville, N.C. looking to add to the woes of the Pirates. Virginia Tech took care of West Virginia in a neutral-site game earlier this season, covering a five-point number, but last week they took a step back. The defense was stout, pitching a shutout against FCS Delaware, but they won 27-0 and didn't come close to covering the 41-point number. Of course, they were working on a short week after playing a rare Sunday game, and there was also the hangover after playing a high-profile game the previous week. East Carolina was pounded by FCS James Madison, 34-14, and they were rolled by West Virginia, a common opponent, by a 56-20 score in Morgantown. As such, the Hokies are more than a three-touchdown favorite. The Pirates were paddled 54-17 by the Hokies last season in Blacksburg, and similar results likely can be expected this year.
North Carolina at Old Dominion
The Tar Heels head to the Tidewater looking for their first win after a pair of home losses to kick off their season. On the flip side, Old Dominion has picked up wins against UAlbany and at Massachusetts. Their offense has been a little inconsistent, averaging just 24.0 PPG, but their defense has been solid, allowing just 12.0 PPG. The 'under' has hit in each of their games to date. On the flip side, the 'over' has hit in each of UNC's games, as they're averaging 32.5 PPG and they have allowed 41.0 PPG so far. North Carolina is 0-2 ATS to date. The Monarchs are 3-10 ATS in their past 13 non-conference battles and 1-8 ATS in their past nine on field turf. However, they are an impressive 7-2-2 ATS in their past 11 games in Norfolk.
Central Michigan at Syracuse
The Chippewas struggled in their opener against FCS Rhode Island, but they righted the ship with an emphatic victory on the road in Kansas. The last time these two schools player, it was Syracuse coming away with a 30-27 win in overtime at CMU on Sept. 19, 2015. Syracuse looked good in their opener against an FCS school, Central Connecticut State, but they were surprised at the Carrier Dome by Middle Tennesse last week by a 30-23 score. So far, the 'Cuse is 2-0 ATS through two games with the 'under' also going 2-0. The Chips are 9-4-1 ATS over their past 14 non-conference battles, although they're still just 1-7 ATS over their past eight against ACC teams. The Orange have failed to cover four in a row at home, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference games, but an impressive 14-3-1 ATS in their past 18 against MAC foes.
Notre Dame at Boston College
The Irish hook up with the Eagles in Chestnut Hill, a school that has been a major thorn in the side of Notre Dame over the years. Notre Dame should be mighty angry after a 20-19 setback on their home turf against Georgia last week, but will B.C. add to their woes? Notre Dame managed just 1.5 yards per rush last week and will need to do better. They barely topped Boston College in a game at Fenway Park on Nov. 21, 2015, the last time these teams hooked up. The Irish have won the past five 'Holy Wars', but three of the five games have been decided by four points or less. Before that was a six-game Eagles run. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 in this series, with the road team cashing in four of the past five. The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS across the past six meetings. Total bettors will like the fact the 'under' is 7-0 in the past seven in this series, with the under 4-1 in the past five at Alumni Stadium.
Clemson at Louisville
In a marquee matchup, the Tigers and Cardinals hook up on the banks of the Ohio River in Louisville. The Tigers look to stay hot against the number, as they're 4-0 ATS in their past four, and 4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. However, they're a dismal 1-5 ATS over their past six inside the conference. The Cards struggled against Purdue earlier in the season, barely winning a neutral-site game, but they rebounded nicely with a win and cover in North Carolina in their conference opener. They are still just 1-4 ATS over their past five home outings, and they're 1-5 ATS in the past six overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four against a team with a winning overall mark. The over has hit in five in a row with Clemson on the road, while going 4-1 in the past five ACC games. Louisville has hit the over in nine of the past 12 confernce tilts. Louisville looks to avenge a 42-36 loss at Death Valley last season.
Big 12 Report - Week 3
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh
The Cowboys head east to battle the Panthers in an ACC-Big 12 matchup. OK State is 4-0 ATS over their past four non-conference battles, and 5-1 ATS in their past six trips away from home. The No. 8 team in the nation has looked very good, including a dominating 44-7 win at South Alabama last week. The Cowboys are a perfect 2-0 ATS so far. The Panthers haven't covered in two tries so far this season, and they're 0-3-1 ATS over their past four outings. They're also a dismal 5-15-1 ATS over their past 21 non-conference tilts, and 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games at home.
Kansas at Ohio
The Jayhawks hit the road for Athens looking to rebound after their first loss of the season. Kansas was favored last week against another MAC team, Central Michigan, but the Chippewas routed them. The Jayhawks were searching for back-to-back victories for the first time since 2011, but it wasn't meant to be. Kansas enters just 9-19 ATS over their past 28 games and 11-30-1 ATS over their past 42 games on the road. Kansas is also 5-15-1 ATS acros their past 21 games outside of the conference, too. Ohio has handled themselves much better, going 11-3 ATS in their past 14 non-conference games. The Bobcats went to Lawrence and picked up a 37-21 victory. Meanwhile, Kansas hasn't won on the road since 2009, dropping 39 true road outings in a row.
Iowa State at Akron
Akron opened with a 52-0 thumping from Penn State before rebounding at home with a 52-3 victory against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. It's likely the results are somewhere in the middle of both of those outings with Iowa State coming to town. And they'll be very angry, too, after suffering a 44-41 overtime setback against rival Iowa last week. Iowa State has averaged 41.5 PPG while allowing 34.0 PPG. As such, the over has hit in each of their two games while going 2-0 ATS. I-State opened as a 9 1/2-point favorite and it has been bet up to 10 1/2 as of Thursday morning.
Baylor at Duke
It has been a nightmare start for the Bears, dropping their opener to FCS Liberty and then providing Texas-San Antonio with its first-ever victory against a Power 5 club. Baylor has failed to cover seven of their past nine overall, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference battles. On the flip side, Duke stomped FCS North Carolina Central in their opener and then they manhandled Northwestern last week by a 41-14 count to move to 2-0 SU/ATS. They're 5-0 ATS in their past five home games, and 21-6-1 ATS in the past 28 non-conference tilts. Total bettors might be interested to know the Bears have seen the 'under' cash in five of the past six non-conference games while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road. The 'over' is 2-0 this season for Duke, and 4-0 in their past four overall, although the under has hit in six of their past eight at home.
Southern Methodist at Texas Christian
The Mustangs head across the Metroplex to Fort Worth looking to take care of the Horned Frogs. Both teams have opened 2-0 SU, but they have taken different routes to get there. TCU romped against FCS Jackson State in the opener, winning 63-0. They then hit the road and had a convincing 28-7 win at Arkansas, hitting the 'under' for the second straight game. SMU routed Stephen F. Austin by a 58-14 score, covering a 30-point number, before pounding North Texas in a 54-32 score. The Mustangs are 2-0 ATS, averaging 56.0 PPG in Chad Morris' offense. The 'over' has hit in their two outings. Last season they dropped a 33-3 game at home to TCU. The Mustangs enter 5-1 ATS in their past six road outings, while the Frogs are 0-9 ATS across their past nine home outings.
Tulane at Oklahoma
The Green Wave had a near miss at Navy last week, falling 23-21. The Sooners picked up an impressive road win at Ohio State, jumping up to No. 2 in the rankings. Will there be a hangover this weekend? Vegas believes that won't be the case, as the Sooners are favored by five touchdowns. The Green Wave are an impressive 6-1 ATS over their past seven non-conference games, while cashing in eight of the past 11 road outings. The Sooners have cashed in six straight home games. The 'over' is 4-0 in Tulane's past four non-conference tilts, while the under is 8-2 over their past 10 against teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in Oklahoma's past six home games and 6-2 in their past eight overall.
Kansas State at Vanderbilt
K-State rolls into Nashville in a Big 12-SEC showdown. They have scored 55 points in each of their first two games, and that will be a big test for the Commodores and their defense. Vandy allowed just six points in their opener at Middle Tennesse, and they blanked FCS Alabama A&M last weekend. The 'under' has hit in each of their first two outings. The 'over' has hit in the first two for K-State, as the Wildcats have yielded 13.0 PPG. The over is 7-1 in Kansas State's past eight games overall, and 4-1 in their past five non-conference battles. The over is 4-1 in Vandy's past five home games and 6-1 in their past seven at home against a team with a winning road mark.
Arizona State at Texas Tech
The Sun Devils head to Lubbock to tangle with the high-octane Red Raiders. After a close shave against New Mexico State in their opener, AZ State was tripped up 30-20 by San Diego State at home. They enter the game 0-2 ATS with the 'under' 2-0 so far. Defense has been an issue, allowing 30.5 PPG, and that's never good when preparing for Texas Tech. Remember, the last time these teams played on Sept. 10, 2016, it was a 68-55 shootout in favor of the Sun Devils. Tech will be gunning for revenge. They humped up on FCS Eastern Washington back on Sept. 2, winning by a 56-10 score as 12-point favorites. Tech is favored by seven to 7 1/2 points, depending on the shop.
Texas at Southern California
Will we get the good Longhorns or bad Longhorns in Saturday's rematch with USC? Texas was shocked 51-41 by Maryland in their opener, but took out their aggressions on San Jose State last week by a 56-0 score. What we know about Texas is that they can score, but which defense will show up? Defense did well enough to USC last week, as they topped Stanford 42-24 for a win in the conference opener. The Trojans have seen the over cash in each of their first two, as they're averaging 45.5 PPG while yielding 27.5 PPG. These teams last met in a memorable National Championship game in 2016, with Texas coming out on top 41-38. One of these teams is championship caliber (USC), and the other would like to spoil their title dreams again (Texas).
Pac-12 Report - Week 3
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
UCLA at Memphis
UCLA takes the cross-country flight to Memphis for an early start on the banks of the Mississippi River. A lot of people are finding the line in this game to be very favorable, as the Bruins opened as 2 1/2-point favorites and currently sit as a field-goal favorite as of this posting. Memphis opened with an uninspiring win over Louisiana-Monroe, 37-29, never coming close to covering a 27 1/2-point line. UCLA has already had a memorable season, recovering from 34 down to stun Texas A&M in the opener, and then waffling Hawaii by a 56-23 count last weekend. Their defense is a bit suspect, which could keep the Tigers in the game, but eventually talent on offense, led by Josh Rosen, will win the day.
Oregon State at Washington State
The brutal schedule for the Beavers continues, although this is a game they'd normally play since it's the conference opener. Oregon State suits up for the fourth time in four weeks, and they are licking their wounds after being pounded by Minnesota 48-14 in Corvallis last week. This game opened at 16, and quickly has moved to 21, as bettors try to take advantage of an Oregon State side that is 0-3 ATS so far. Total bettors have also found the Beavers to be a solid play, as the 'over' has cashed in each of their first three outings. QB Luke Falk (head) is expected to be ready for this one after being knocked out of the last game with a head injury. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS over their past eight conference games, while the Cougs are 2-5 ATS in their past seven in the Pac-12. And Oregon State has covered seven of their past eight trips to Pullman, and 12 of the past 17 overall in this series.
Oregon at Wyoming
The Ducks hit the road for Laramie, and they look to build on an impressive 42-35 win against Nebraska. Well, impressive on paper, but not if you were holding a -14 ticket last week. Oregon built a 42-14 haltime lead, but failed to score in the second half and allowed the Cornhuskers to rally before falling by seven. It was a bad beat for some, a surprising cover for others. The Ducks will have their hands full containing NFL prospect QB Josh Allen, potentially the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. But despite Allen, the Cowboys are still just 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS, with the under going 0-2 so far. The offense hasn't been clicking, averaging just 15.0 PPG, while the defense has a respectable 12.0 PPG allowed. However, the total for this game is hovering around 60 and there is a lot of offensive firepower on both sides of the ball.
Arizona State at Texas Tech
The Sun Devils head to Lubbock to tangle with the high-octane Red Raiders. After a close shave against New Mexico State in their opener, AZ State was tripped up 30-20 by San Diego State at home. They enter the game 0-2 ATS with the 'under' 2-0 so far. Defense has been an issue, allowing 30.5 PPG, and that's never good when preparing for Texas Tech. Remember, the last time these teams played on Sept. 10, 2016, it was a 68-55 shootout in favor of the Sun Devils. Tech will be gunning for revenge. They humped up on FCS Eastern Washington back on Sept. 2, winning by a 56-10 score as 12-point favorites. Tech is favored by seven to 7 1/2 points, depending on the shop.
Texas at Southern California
Will we get the good Longhorns or bad Longhorns in Saturday's rematch with USC? Texas was shocked 51-41 by Maryland in their opener, but took out their aggressions on San Jose State last week by a 56-0 score. What we know about Texas is that they can score, but which defense will show up? Defense did well enough to USC last week, as they topped Stanford 42-24 for a win in the conference opener. The Trojans have seen the over cash in each of their first two, as they're averaging 45.5 PPG while yielding 27.5 PPG. These teams last met in a memorable National Championship game in 2016, with Texas coming out on top 41-38. One of these teams is championship caliber (USC), and the other would like to spoil their title dreams again (Texas).
Fresno State at Washington
Poor Fresno State. They just played on the road at Alabama and were walloped 41-10, now they face another playoff team from 2016 in Seattle. The Bulldogs did a good job containing Jalen Hurts and the Crimson Tide offense, allowing just 41 points while scoring 10 to gain the cover. Fresno is 2-0 ATS so far on the young season. Washington was a bit slugging in their opening cross-country road trip to Rutgers, winning 30-14 as 28-point favorites, and they came back home to throttle FCS Montana 63-7. They're a good squad, but are they 33 points better than Fresno? Bettors do not seem to think so, driving the line down 1 1/2 points from an opening line of 34 1/2. Fresno is 4-0 ATS in their past four against winning teams, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight on a fieldturf surface. Washington is 7-3 ATS across their past 10 non-conference tilts.
San Jose State at Utah
The brutal early-season schedule continues to the Spartans of San Jose State, as they were topped by South Florida 42-22 in the opener, and waylaid 56-0 in Texas last weekend. They have tasted success once, topping FCS Cal Poly on Sept. 2. Total bettors have liked San Jose so far this season, as the 'under' is a perfect 3-0. Utah is up to a 26-point favorite for this one, as of Wednesday afternoon, but might they have a hangover after their emotional 19-13 win in the Holy War against rival BYU last weekend? The Utes are 2-0 SU/ATS, and the 'under' is also perfect for them so far through two games.
Stanford at San Diego State
San Diego State comes home after an impressive win at Arizona State last week to find an angry Stanford team champing at the bit. The Cardinal were stung 42-24 at USC, so they'll be eager to get back on track. The Aztecs are 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS after a 21-point win against FCS UC Davis in the opener. Stanford usually comes back strong after a setback, going 11-2 ATS in their past 13 following a straight-up loss, while going 9-3 ATS across their past 12 on the road. San Diego State is 4-10-1 ATS in their past 15 non-conference tilts, and 5-13 ATS in their past 18 against the Pac-12. They bucked both of those trends last weekend, but can they do it again as single-digit underdogs at home? Most shops have them catching nine or 9 1/2 as of Wednesday evening.
Mississippi at California
Ole Miss invades Berkeley in a rare SEC-Pac 12 tilt in the Golden State. The Rebels are 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS after a backdoor cover against South Alabama to hit in the opener, and FCS Tennessee-Martin did enough to hang on for a cover last weekend. The 'over' is 2-0 for Mississippi since their offense is averaging 46.0 PPG, with the defense yielding 25.0 PPG. They'll likely be in another track meet this week, as California likes to play up tempo. The Bears stunned North Carolina on the road on Sept. 2, and they handled FCS Weber State last week. They're averaging 34.0 PPG while giving up 25.0 PPG, so expect fireworks. Vegas expects a lot of points, with a total set at 72, but is that enough?
Big Ten Report - Week 3
By ASAWins.com
Air Force at Michigan (-25.5)
After dominating Florida two weeks ago, the Wolverines had a bit of a letdown at home vs Cincinnati last week. The Bearcats won their season opener vs Austin Peay a week earlier but looked horrendous in the process with fewer first first downs, yardage, and time of possession. In this game Michigan led 17-14 with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter before they took over and pushed the margin to 36-14. The defense continued to shine allowing just 200 total yards on 70 Bearcat offensive snaps (2.85 yards per play). On the season, two games, the Wolverine defense has allowed just 392 total yards! QB Wilton Speight played was much better this week with 221 yards and 2 TD’s passing. That was after throwing two pick 6’s and completing only 44% of his passes against Florida.
Air Force had last weekend off after throttling VMI 62-0 in their opener on September 2nd. The Flyboys outgained VMI 647 to 95 in that win which included 457 yards on the ground. The Falcons were 10-3 and finished 3rd nationally in rushing last year at 317 YPG. However they bring back only 7 starters from that team that put up 10 wins a year ago. That includes only one regular returning on defense where they lost 12 of their top 13 tackler from a year ago. These two last met in 2012 when Air Force came to the Big House and nearly pulled the upset losing 31-25 as a 21.5 point underdog.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Since 1980 Air Force has been a 3 TD or more underdog just 12 times (9-3 ATS). Since 1996 the Falcons are a perfect 6-0 ATS in that role. Since 2011, Michigan is 18-10-1 ATS as a favorite off an ATS loss the previous game.
Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-14.5)
The Huskers are 1-1 on the season winning by a TD in week one at home vs Arkansas State and losing by a TD last week at Oregon. If you watched the game last week, you realize that Nebraska was fairly fortunate to lose by just 7 points in Eugene. The Ducks led 14-0 less than 4 minutes into the game and held a 42-14 edge at halftime! They had nearly 400 total yards at halftime vs the new defensive 3x4 scheme Nebraska has implemented this season. That’s a defense that has allowed a whopping 1,063 yards already this season in just two games. Nebraska did rally in the 2nd half after Oregon took their foot off the gas to make it respectable. For the game Oregon outgained the Huskers by more than 200 yards and more than 2.0 yards per play. One of Nebraska’s top offensive weapons, RB Tre Bryant (300 yards rushing this year), injured his knee and is questionable for this Saturday’s game.
NIU gave Boston College all they could handle in week one before falling 23-20. They bounced back last week with an easy 28 point win over Eastern Illinois. They outgained the Panthers in that game by more than 300 yards. It was a balanced attack with 269 yards passing and 230 on the ground. Starting QB Ryan Graham put up 190 yards passing and 99 on the ground vs BC but didn’t play last week due to an elbow injury. He’ll be out 2-4 weeks. His replacement, Daniel Santacaterina, played very well last week with 252 yards passing with 3 TD’s. “Santa” as his teammates call him, threw for 216 of his 252 in the first half. The Huskies, who dominated the MAC between 2010 – 2014, are coming off their first losing season (5-7 record) since 2008.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The Huskies have covered 17 of the last 22 times they’ve been tabbed a road underdog. They are 22-9 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points since 1998. The Huskers are 22-12 ATS as a double digit favorite coming off an outright loss their previous game (since 1980).
Wisconsin (-17.5) at BYU
After destroying Utah State 59-10 to open the season, Wisconsin struggled a bit through last Saturday’s win over Florida Atlantic. The Badgers, a 34.5 point favorite, led 24-14 and limped to a 31-17 win. That was against an FAU team that lost 42-19 a week earlier to Navy AND were dealing with Hurricane distractions. Wisconsin did dominate the stats (+316 total yardage differential) but looked shaky at times offensively. They had 7 offensive drives of 5 plays or fewer that ended in a punt or a turnover. The offense put the defense in some bad spots as well as FAU’s two TD drives consisted of 5 plays & 2 plays. It looks like the Badgers have found another gem at the RB position as true freshman Jonathan Taylor, who has great size and speed, put up 223 yards on the ground in his first start. Taylor now has 310 yards rushing in two games and is average 8.9 YPC. UW was hit up front with a couple of injuries as both starting offensive guards, Beau Benzschawel and Jon Dietzen, are questionable with injuries.
BYU has already played three games on the season coming up short in two of those games. However their two losses were nothing to be ashamed of losing 27-0 at LSU and 19-13 vs Utah. Their lone win on the season was at home vs Portland State 20-6. As you can see by the scores, this is an offense that has really struggled. They have scored just 4 offensive TD’s in 3 games this season. The Cougs have a grand total of 58 yards rushing in their last two games combined. Granted, two of those games came against very good defense teams in LSU & Utah. That won’t change here as Wisconsin has allowed 12 PPG in two games this year after finishing 4th nationally in scoring defense last season. BYU will most likely take the field without starting QB Tanner Mangum who injured his ankle near the end of the game last week. If Mangum can’t go, sophomore Beau Hoge, who has appeared in 3 games in his career, will get the start.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The line on this game before the season began was Wisconsin -10. Now just two weeks into the season we’re seeing the Badgers favored by as many as 18 as some spots. BYU’s QB injury situation has played into that. BYU is 22-10 ATS the last 32 times they’ve been an underdog (0-2 ATS this year included). The Cougars have been a home dog of more than 17 points only ONCE since 1980. That was in 2004 vs USC. Dating back to 1999, the Badgers are just 4-11 ATS the last 15 times they’ve been a road favorite of 2 TD’s or more.
North Texas at Iowa (-21)
The Hawkeyes won a thriller last week at Iowa State to retain possession of the CyHawk trophy for the 3rd straight season. The 47-44 overtime win was an evenly played game on the field and the stat sheet. Iowa jumped out to a 21-10 lead early in the 3rd quarter only to see ISU come back and score 21 straight points to take a 31-21 lead with under 7:00 remaining in the game. The Cyclones led 38-31 until Iowa scored the game tying TD with just over 1:00 left on the clock. The 3-point win in OT for Iowa was a push as far as the spread was concerned. After a shaky debut in their opener vs Wyoming, first year QB Nate Stanley was terrific completing 27 of 41 for 333 yards and 5 TD’s. Defensively, after holding Wyoming to just 3.3 yards per play in their first game the Hawks were torched for 467 yards last Saturday.
North Texas goes on the road for the second straight week after losing at SMU 54-32. UNT jumped out to a 10-0 lead in that game before SMU scored 38 straight points to take command. The Mean Green actually trailed 54-17 into the 4th quarter before scoring two meaningless TD’s to make the final margin 22 points. Surprisingly, the yardage was dead even in the game with each team rolling up 493 yards. However, nearly 200 of UNT’s yards came on their final three drives when the game was out of reach. These two met here in Iowa City just two years ago and UNT is hoping for a much better result. The Mean Green lost that game 62-16 as a 25 point favorite.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Since the start of the 2006 season, North Texas has played 16 Power 5 opponents losing 15 of those games. Their one win was at home vs Indiana 24-21. I their 15 Power 5 losses since 2006, 14 of those have come by at least 14 points and they have allowed at least 32 points in all 15 of those losses. Iowa has cashed in 65% of the time as a favorite of 21 or more dating all the way back to 1980 (33-18 ATS). However they are just 2-7 ATS in that role since 2009.
Middle Tennessee at Minnesota (-10.5)
Can the Gopher football team get some “revenge” for the Gopher basketball team in this one? The Minnesota hoops team took on MTSU in the opening round of last year’s NCAA tourney and came up short 81-72. The gridiron Gophs, after struggling a bit at home vs Buffalo in their opener, they went to Corvallis last Saturday a destroyed Oregon State 48-14. The Gophers scored 17 of their 48 points directly off Beaver turnovers. The game was tight at half with Minnesota leading 20-14. The defense played lights out in the 2nd half holding OSU scoreless on just 35 yards of offense. Offensively, Minny was so dominant running the ball (253 yards) they only attempted 8 passes the entire game. After splitting snaps with Demry Croft in the season opener, QB Conor Rhoda took most of the snaps vs the Beavs. He will take all of the snaps this weekend vs MTSU as Croft has been suspended by head coach PJ Fleck.
MTSU will take to the road for the second straight Saturday after pulling the upset at Syracuse last week. The Blue Raiders came into last week’s game as a 7.5 point underdog and beat the Orange in the dome 30-23. They are now 1-1 on the season after losing at home to Vandy in the opener. The Raiders have proven they can get it done on the road as they have now won 8 of their last 10 road games. They have one of the most potent QB/WR combos in the country. QB Brent Stockstill returns after throwing for over 3,200 yards and 31 TD’s last year. His top target, WR Richie James, had 1,625 yards receiving last season. These two have faced off twice since 2010 with Minnesota winning at home in 2014 by a final score of 35-24. The Gophs also won at MTSU 24-17 in 2010.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Minnesota is just 5-13 ATS (27%) as a favorite of -10 or more since the start of the 2007 season. They are also only 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they’ve been a home favorite. Not many upsets - despite their recent road success, MTSU is just 4-19 SU the last 23 times they’ve been a road underdog.
Purdue at Missouri (-7)
The Boilers played much better than we expected last Friday Night. They were coming off a tight loss to Louisville (at Indianapolis) in their opener and came home to face Ohio. Despite the tight 7 point margin vs the Cards, Purdue was dominated in that game. We envisioned a letdown vs a solid Ohio team but they proved us wrong. The Boilermakers rolled to a 44-21 win over the Bobcats and outgained them by 150 yards in the process. Head coach Jeff Brohm continued with the QB rotations of Sindelar and Blough as he did in the first game. Blough, who was the starter last year, was the better of the two in this game completing all but two of his 13 attempts for 235 yards and 3 TD’s. We stated in last week’s Big Ten report that we felt Purdue would try and establish their running game vs Ohio after doing next to nothing on the ground vs Louisville (just 51 yards). They did just that with 44 rushing attempts for 263 yards. All of that with their leading RB Markell Jones on the shelf with an injury.
Missouri kicked off the week by firing defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross. The Tiger defense allowed 43 & 31 points in their first two games of the season vs Missouri State and South Carolina. The offense is definitely the strength of this team. The Tigers brought back 10 starters from an offense that averaged 31 PPG last season. That includes QB Drew Lock, their top 2 rushers, and top 4 receivers. In their opener vs Missouri State the offense was unstoppable putting up 72 points. Last week, not so much, with just 13 vs South Carolina. They did put up over 400 yards but didn’t help themselves with 3 turnovers and a missed FG. After two weeks, the Tigers are the fastest paced offense in the nation averaging a snap every 18 seconds.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Mizzou is an impressive 25-7-1 ATS as a home favorite coming off a loss their previous game. While Purdue is a money making 13-3 ATS their last 16 games away from home, they only have 8 outright wins in their last 48 games away from home.
Army at Ohio State (-30.5)
How do the Buckeyes respond after getting dominated at home vs Oklahoma last Saturday night on prime time TV? That will go a long way in determining who covers this game. Let’s face it, after two weeks the Buckeyes don’t look like a top 5 type team. In their opener they struggled with Indiana and actually trailed the game late in the 3rd quarter before pulling away. Last week Oklahoma looked like the better team from the opening kick. The OSU offense, specifically the passing game, looked pedestrian. QB JT Barrett has not progressed under new offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson, which was part of the reason he was brought in. Slow starts on offense have been a problem as the Buckeyes have scored just 16 points in the first half this season. The defense was supposed to be one of Urban Meyer’s best but has allowed 52 points and over 900 total yards in two games. This one could have been worse. In their first four drives the Sooners were shut out on downs, had two turnovers, and missed a FG. After that OU scored points on 5 of their next 6 drives to put the game away.
Army could be a dangerous opponent in this one. Especially if the OSU players are sulking after last week’s loss. The Cadets run an offense that OSU rarely sees. With just a week to prepare and the potential distractions off a big loss Army could have some success. The Cadets are 2-0 with wins over Fordham and Buffalo and this team rarely throws the ball. In their opener they rushed for 517 yards and had just 2 pass attempts. Last week vs Buffalo they had 322 yards on the ground and threw the ball only 8 times. They were 8-5 a year ago, including a bowl win, and they return 16 starters. If they can have some success on the ground they will eat clock which may make it tough for OSU to cover this huge number. They have lost by 30 points or more just twice in their last 36 games.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Army is 6-2 ATS as a dog of 28 or more since the start of the 2000 season. They’ve been tabbed an underdog for 4 TD’s or more only 12 times in the last 28 seasons. The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been a double digit favorite and coming off an outright loss.
Bowling Green at Northwestern (-21.5)
Northwestern has been a disappointment in their first two games to say the least. They have failed to cover each of the first two games by a combined 39 points! Last Saturday they traveled to Duke as a 2 point favorite and were thoroughly embarrassed. The Cats lost 41-17 and were outgained by a ridiculous 347 yards on the process. The Devils completely controlled the game from the opening kick running an unheard of 104 offensive plays to just 54 for Northwestern. You read that correctly. Duke ran 50 more offensive plays in the game. The defense couldn’t slow down Duke QB Jones who had 413 total yards. The NW offense, which was supposed to be a strength this year under returning QB Clayton Thorson and top RB Justin Jackson, failed to gain more than 15 yards in 10 of their 13 offensive possessions.
Bowling Green might be the perfect medicine for a struggling Northwestern team. BG is 0-2 on the season with losses at Michigan State and at home vs South Dakota. They have been outgained by a combined 300 yards in their first two games. Their 35-10 road loss at MSU was to be expected however their home loss to an FCS team is obviously concerning. The Falcons never led last week vs South Dakota and trailed 35-19 late in the game before tacking on a TD to make the final 35-19. After two games Bowling Green has yet to hold a lead. They have scored just 3 offensive TD’s on the season. The Falcons have struggled to stop the run (430 yards allowed this season) and been outgained on the ground by 200 yards combined in their two games. Look for NW to pound the ball with Justin Jackson who has only 127 yards in two games.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – This is rarified air for Northwestern who has been a favorite of 21 or more only 9 times in the last 28 seasons. They are just 3-6 ATS in those games including a spread loss at home vs Nevada in the season opener as a 24 point chalk. The Cats are just 5-14 ATS as a home favorite coming off an outright loss. BG is 0-1 ATS on the road this season, however coming into the year they were 39-18-1 ATS their previous 58 games away from home.
Georgia State at Penn State (-38.5)
The Nittany Lions rolled over in-state rival Pitt by a final score of 33-14. Depending on your number it was a loss or a tie if you were on PSU. The line was -21 for much of the week before dropping to -19 closer to game time. While it looked like it on the scoreboard, we’d say it was far from a dominating win for the Nits. The Panthers were actually +10 in first downs, +30 in total yardage, and had a whopping 17:00 minute time of possession edge. How did PSU win by such a wide margin? Three Pittsburgh turnovers and a number of blown offensive opportunities by the Panthers made this score more lopsided than it should have been. This could set up as a dangerous type game for Penn State when it comes to the spread. They are off a huge revenge/rivalry game and have a big game at Iowa on deck. They can probably name the score but do they really need to win by 40+?
Georgia State was 3-9 last year and they are 0-1 this season. However, they were a team last season that rarely was blown out by huge margins. They took Wisconsin (-34.5) to the wire in Madison losing 23-17. Their only two complete duds a year ago were at Air Force (lost by 34) and at Wyoming (lost by 25). Other than that they were fairly competitive. They also have had two full weeks to get ready for this game and it’s a big one for them. On top of that, they had an embarrassing loss to open the season losing 17-10 to Tennessee State back on Sept 2nd. This team does return 15 starters including QB Connor Manning who threw for 2,700 yards and 16 TD’s last year. They are under the direction of a new head coach however as Shawn Elliott came over after one year as FAU’s offensive coordinator. He was at South Carolina as an assistant for the seven years prior to that.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – This is the highest a PSU team has been favored (vs an FBS team) since the 1998 season. Since 1980, the Nittany Lions have been favored by more than 35 points just 9 times (9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS). Georgia State has played 8 Power 5 teams in their schools history. They have lost all 8 of those games by an average margin of 34 points.
SEC Notebook - Week 3
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Let’s start this week’s SEC Notebook with a look at our Power Rankings for the conference going into Week 3:
1-Alabama
2-LSU
3-Georgia
4-Auburn
5-South Carolina
6-Vanderbilt
7-Florida
8-Mississippi State
9-Tennessee
10-Texas A&M
11-Ole Miss
12-Kentucky
13-Arkansas
14-Missouri
Florida hasn’t started 0-2 since 1971. In fact, the Gators are 0-1 for the first time since 1989 when Ole Miss won a 24-19 decision at The Swamp. They saw their Week 2 game vs. No. Colorado postponed due to Hurricane Irma, so UF will attempt to win its first game of 2017 against Tennessee. These bitter SEC East rivals will collide in Gainesville at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had Florida (0-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) listed as a 4.5 or five-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Volunteers were +170 to win outright at The Swamp for the first time since 2003 when Casey Clausen led UT to victory over Ron Zook’s squad.
UF will be without its nine previously suspended players, including its best running back (Jordan Scarlett) and wide receiver (Antonio Callaway). Also, starting LB Kylan Johnson is ‘out’ with a leg injury. On the bright side, TE DeAndre Goolsby has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after Jim McElwain implied he was out for an indefinite period of time last week. Goolsby is a key piece in UF’s offense after hauling in 38 receptions for 342 yards and three TDs last season.
Tennessee is dealing with a number of injuries. Starting OT Chance Hall and LB Darrin Kirkland were lost to season-enders in August. Now starting WR Jauan Jennings is out for the year with a wrist injury. Jennings had 40 catches for 580 yards and seven TDs in ’16. Evan Berry, a reserve DB and two-time first-team All-SEC kick returner who was the SEC Special Teams Player of the Year in 2015, is listed as ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury. Also, starting senior CB Justin Martin is ‘questionable’ with a stinger.
Florida has compiled a 4-5 spread record in nine games as a home favorite during McElwain’s three-year tenure. The Volunteers own a 4-5-1 spread record in 10 games as road underdogs on Butch Jones’s watch. The Gators raced out to a 21-0 lead in last year’s encounter at Neyland Stadium, only to see Tennessee score 38 unanswered points. The Vols eventually captured a 38-28 win as 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ to snap an 11-game losing streak to UF.
In Its last visit to Gainesville, UT took a 26-14 lead with 10:19 remaining in the fourth quarter. With a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter, every head coach on this planet not named Zook, Les Miles or Butch Jones knows you have to go for two because there’s no difference between a 12 and 13-point lead when the opponent almost certainly doesn’t have enough time to get three more offensive possessions. Of course, Jones chose to go for one and, rightfully so, it came back to haunt him.
Florida responded with a 16-play, 86-yard TD drive to pull within 27-21. Then with less than a minute remaining on a 4th-and-14 play, Will Grier found Callaway for a first down, but Callaway made a slick move toward the sideline, picked up a great block from Brandon Powell and went the distance to give UF the lead. UT’s 55-yard field goal to win it on the game’s final play looked to be good initially before sailing wide right.
Not only did Jones think the kick was good and start to celebrate like a clown, he then defended his decision to go for one by perplexingly and cowardly pointing out that his “standard two-point chart” told him to go for one. Okay, then!
South Carolina and Vanderbilt have been a surprise to some. Not to this space, though, as we’ve been touting the 2017 Gamecocks since late in the 2016 campaign. Our thoughts on this squad were delivered in great detail way back in July.
Will Muschamp’s team won a 35-28 decision over North Carolina St. as a seven-point underdog in Week 1. Then in Week 2, USC went to Missouri and fell behind 10-0 early, only to respond with a 31-3 run en route to a 31-13 victory as a three-point ‘dog.
Trailing 10-0, junior Deebo Samuel returned his second kickoff of the season for a touchdown (the other came on the first play of the season against the Wolfpack). On the first play of Missouri’s next drive, the prize of Muschamp’s 2017 recruiting class, true freshman cornerback Jamyest Williams, picked off Drew Lock for the first interception of his career. On the very next play, Samuel took a jet sweep 25 yards to the house. In other words, a four-play stretch netted two TDs from Samuel and a double-digit road deficit was erased, as South Carolina took the lead for good.
USC played turnover-free football, with sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley throwing one TD to improve his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 4/1 for the year. Junior TE Hayden Hurst got involved against the Tigers, scoring a pair of TDs on a 39-yard pass from Bentley and on a two-yard run on a third-and-goal play. Hurst showed his speed on the TD catch, while it was his size and power on display when he slipped multiple tackles to find the end zone on his running score.
The South Carolina defense held a Missouri offense that scored 72 points in Week 1 to merely 13. Now the Gamecocks bring a 2-0 record into their home opener Saturday night vs. Kentucky.
As of early Thursday morning, South Carolina was installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 51 at most books. The Wildcats were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).
South Carolina has dropped three in a row to UK, including last year’s 17-10 setback in Lexington. These teams have played four consecutive one-possession games dating back to USC’s 35-28 win in 2013.
Kentucky (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has now won nine of its last 12 regular-season games. The Wildcats didn’t wow anyone with a win at So. Miss (24-17) or vs. Eastern Ky. (27-16), but they nonetheless enter their SEC lid-lifter undefeated.
Jordan Jones, UK’s top defensive player, is dealing with a shoulder injury and is listed as ‘questionable.’ Jones was a second-team All-SEC selection as a sophomore last year when he recorded 109 tackles, four sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, nine QB hurries and four passes broken up. WR Dorian Baker remains sidelined indefinitely for the ‘Cats.
Mark Stoops’s team has covered the spread in each of its last four games as a road underdog, but UK is just 9-9 ATS as a road ‘dog during his five-year tenure. Meanwhile, Muschamp went 2-2 ATS in four games as a home favorite during his first year in Columbia.
The SEC Network will have the UK-USC telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.
Vanderbilt, No. 25 in my Power Rankings this week, will take on Kansas State on ESPNU at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The Commodores have looked extremely impressive in wins at Middle Tennessee and vs. Alabama A&M, thumping those foes by a combined score of 70-6.
Junior Kyle Shurmur came of age last November and is on fire through two games, completing 35-of-46 passes for 498 yards and seven TDs without an interception. He’s also rushed for a score. The ‘Dores scored TDs on their first three drives in their opener and on their first four drives last week. They have one of the nation’s top RBs in Ralph Webb, who is already the school’s all-time leading rusher.
Vanderbilt owns an 8-3 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Derek Mason’s four-year tenure. The Commodores have won outright in four consecutive home games dating back to last year, and each victory has come by a margin of at least 11 points.
As of Thursday morning, most spots had Kansas State listed as a 3.5 or four-point favorite. The money-line return on Vandy was in the +155 neighborhood (risk $100 to win $155).
LSU (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has won outright an eye-opening 16 times in its last 17 games against Mississippi State. The lone defeat came when Dak Prescott shredded the Tigers in Baton Rouge in 2014. When these SEC West adversaries squared off at Tiger Stadium last season, the Bulldogs trimmed a 23-3 deficit in the four quarter to 23-20 and had the ball in LSU territory in the closing minute. The rally fell short, but LSU backers were left furious by the backdoor cover for MSU as a 13.5-point road underdog.
LSU’s defense didn’t allow BYU to cross midfield in a dominant 27-0 win in its opener at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans two weeks ago. The Tigers took the cash as 14.5-point favorites, while the 27 combined points fell ‘under’ the 47.5-point total. They followed up that win with a 45-10 non-covering triumph over Chattanooga as 36.5-point home ‘chalk’ in Week 2.
Mississippi State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) has captured wins vs. Charleston Southern (49-0) and at Louisiana Tech (52-21). Led by new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, the Bulldogs limited Charleston Southern to merely two first downs. Then they went to Ruston and avenged a 2008 loss in Sylvester Croom’s final season as HC in Starkville.
Through two games, junior QB Nick Fitzgerald has thrown for 363 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 152 yards and three TDs on just 17 attempts (8.9 yards per carry!). Meanwhile, LSU’s Derrius Guice has run for 224 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC.
LSU will get star pass rusher Arden Key back from a shoulder injury to make his season debut. Key was a second-team All-SEC selection last year when he produced 56 tackles, 12 sacks, 11 QB hurries and three forced fumbles.
As of early Thursday morning, most spots had LSU favored by 7.5 with a total of 51 points. The Bulldogs were available on the money line for a +250 payout.
Dan Mullen owns a 10-10 spread record in 20 games as a home underdog during his nine-year tenure. LSU went 2-0 ATS as a road favorite after Ed Orgeron took over for Les Miles last year.
Kickoff in Starkville at Davis-Wade Stadium is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Ole Miss (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has won a pair of home games over South Alabama (47-27) and UT-Martin (45-23). The Rebels allowed a 47-13 fourth-quarter lead to get away against the Jaguars, who posted a backdoor cover as 22-point road ‘dogs. They failed to take the cash vs. UT-Martin as a 32.5-point home fave.
Sophomore QB Shea Patterson has been nothing short of sensational, completing 60-of-78 passes (76.9%) for 918 yards and nine TDs compared to only one interception. WR A.J. Brown, another true sophomore, has brought down 16 catches for 389 yards and four TDs.
As of Thursday morning, most books had Ole Miss favored by 3.5 points for its road game at California. The total was 72, while the Golden Bears were +155 to win outright.
The Justin Wilcox Era is off to a nice start in Berkeley. Wilcox, who did a fantastic job as Wisconsin’s defensive coordinator last year after Dave Aranda left the Badgers to take the DC post at LSU, led Cal to a 35-30 win at North Carolina (in a noon Eastern game) as a 13-point road ‘dog in Week 1. Cal won a 33-20 decision over Weber State at home last week.
ESPN will provide the broadcast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
Clemson at Louisville
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Clemson and Louisville waged a 60-minute war at Death Valley in one of last season’s most compelling regular season games. The Tigers won a 42-36 decision as one-point home underdogs, holding off Lamar Jackson and the U of L offense deep in the red zone in the final minute.
The rematch at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium is set for Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Clemson (2-0 straight up, 2-0 against the spread) installed as a three-point road favorite with a total of 58. The Cardinals were +135 on the money line (risk $100 to win $135).
The defending national champions opened the season with a 56-3 win over Kent State as a 38-point home ‘chalk.’ The 59 combined points went ‘over’ the 52-point total.
Kelly Bryant is attempting to fill the large shoes of Deshaun Watson, who led the Tigers to back-to-back appearances in the College Football Playoff finals and is second in school history in career passing yards. Bryant has similar size and athleticism.
The junior quarterback was impressive in his first career start against the Golden Flashes. Bryant completed 16-of-22 passes for 236 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He demonstrated his scrambling ability with 77 rushing yards on just seven attempts, including an eight-yard TD scamper that put his team in front 28-3 at intermission.
Other standouts in the opener were true freshman running back Travis Etienne and sophomore RB Tavien Feaster. Etienne rushed eight times for a team-best 81 yards and one TD, while Feaster finished with 69 rushing yards and one TD on just six carries.
In Week 2, Auburn came calling to Memorial Stadium. The road underdog took a 6-0 first-half lead thanks to a pair of short field goals from Daniel Carlson. After shaking off an early injury that kept him out for a series, Bryant scored on a three-yard TD run with 48 ticks left in the second quarter to give Clemson a 7-6 lead.
Bryant found the end zone again on a 27-yard dash to paydirt early in the third quarter. As it turned out, that’s all Clemson would need in a 14-6 win as a six-point home favorite. Brent Venables’ defense limited Auburn to merely 117 yards of total offense.
Louisville (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) got all it wanted in its opener vs. Purdue in Indianapolis. Bobby Petrino’s team captured a 35-28 win against the Boilermakers, but it never threatened to cover the spread as a 25.5-point ‘chalk’ in a game that featured one tie and five lead changes. The 63 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 66-point number.
Lamar Jackson connected on 30-of-46 passes for 378 yards and two TDs without an interception. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner also rushed for a team-best 107 yards on 21 attempts. Jaylen Smith had eight catches for 117 yards, while Stacy Thomas had a crucial 61-yard pick-six that gave the Cardinals a 25-21 lead late in the third quarter. With 9:01 remaining, Jackson found Dez Fitzpatrick for a 20-yard scoring strike to put U of L in front for good.
Louisville found itself trailing in the fourth quarter again at North Carolina last week. However, Jackson hit Fitzpatrick for another fourth-quarter TD pass and ran for two more scores in the final stanza of a 47-35 victory as 11.5-point road favorites.
U of L played turnover-free football and produced 705 yards of total offense compared to 401 for UNC. Jackson completed 25-of-39 passes for 393 yards and three TDs without an interception. The junior QB rushed 19 times for 132 yards and three TDs. Malik Williams ran for a team-high 149 yards on 13 carries against the Tar Heels. Smith had nine receptions for 183 yards and one TD, while Fitzpatrick had four grabs four 78 yards and two TDs.
Clemson has won all three head-to-head meetings since Louisville joined the ACC in 2014. However, all three encounters have been one-possession games and the Cardinals covered the spread in the first two contests (20-17 loss in ’15 & a 23-17 loss in ’14). The ‘under’ is 2-1 in this rivalry, but last year’s 78 combined points soared ‘over’ the 64-point total.
Like I always say, a great deal of my handicapping is based on QB play and coaching. On that note, we’ll point out the fascinating matchup between Petrino’s play-calling versus that of Venables, who is one of the nation’s premier DCs. Likewise, Petrino is considered one of the best on the offensive side.
As for the QB play, we turned to VegasInsider.com’s Antony Dinero for his thoughts. Dinero said, “This one is all about the QBs. Lamar Jackson gets to prove his skill set can thrive against even the most elite defenses here. There are some who feel he got the Heisman by default, an opinion many felt was validated by his inability to get much accomplished against LSU in a 29-9 Citrus Bowl loss.
“Kelly Bryant has immense shoes to fill, so even though he’s already defeated Auburn, winning a head-to-head battle against the current Heisman favorite two days after predecessor Deshaun Watson won his first NFL start presents a terrific stage for him to become a household name. He just doesn’t want to become known for the wrong reasons, and it’s up to a much scrutinized defense to make that happen so that Jackson doesn’t have to do all the work.”
Jackson’s mobility will be beneficial against a fierce Clemson pass rush that has 11 sacks through two games. Junior DE Austin Bryant has produced a team-best four sacks, taking advantage of one-on-one situations created by sophomore DT Dexter Lawrence and junior DT Christian Wilkins. Lawrence was a second-team All-ACC selection last season when he tallied 78 tackles, seven sacks and six QB hurries. Wilkins garnered third-team All-American honors when he had 56 tackles, 10 PBU, 9.5 TFL’s, five QB hurries and 3.5 sacks.
During Petrino’s second run at U of L, the Cards are 2-1 ATS with one outright win (vs. FSU last year) as home underdogs. Meanwhile, Clemson has compiled a 13-16 spread record in 29 games as a road favorite since Swinney took over for Tommy Bowden midway through the 2008 campaign.
Louisville junior CB Jaire Alexander is listed as ‘questionable’ with a leg injury. Alexander didn’t play at UNC last week. He garnered fourth-team All-American honors in ’16 when he had 39 tackles, one forced fumble, one punt return for a TD, one tackle for loss, three QB hurries, five interceptions and nine passes broken up.
U of L won’t have senior RB Jeremy Smith, who went down with a season-ending lower-body injury in Week 1. Smith started three games last season, rushing for 382 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.7 yards per carry.
As for Clemson, senior CB Marcus Edmond is ‘questionable’ with a foot injury. Edmund had 19 tackles, one interception, one TFL and three PBU in ’16. Junior free safety Van Smith has missed the first two games due to a knee injury, but he was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Friday. Smith had a stellar sophomore campaign when he recorded 114 tackles, 5.5 TFL’s, two PBU, two interceptions and two forced fumbles.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
San Diego State owns a 4-2-1 spread record as a home underdog during Rocky Long’s seven-year tenure. The Aztecs, who are 2-0 with a home win over UC Davis (38-17) and a road triumph at Arizona State (30-20), will host Stanford as 9.5-point ‘dogs. Since David Shaw took over for Jim Harbaugh in 2011, Stanford has posted a 17-9 spread record as a road favorite. Going back to 2010, the Cardinal has cashed tickets at a 21-10 ATS clip in its last 31 outings as road ‘chalk.’ This game will kick at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports Network.
Southern California is dealing with a few injuries to key players going into Saturday’s showdown vs. Texas at The Coliseum. As of Friday afternoon, most spots had the Trojans favored by 16 points over the Longhorns, who bounced back from their season-opening loss to Maryland by thumping San Jose State, 56-0. Three USC starters are listed as ‘doubtful:’ LB Porter Gustin (shoulder), DT Marlon Tuipulotu (knee) and TE Daniel Imatorbhebhe (hip). Gustin had 68 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 7.5 TFL’s, four PBU and one QB hurry in ’16, while Imatorbhebhe had 17 receptions for 250 yards and four TDs. FOX will have the broadcast at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
Middle Tennessee star QB Brent Stockstill is ‘questionable’ at Minnesota due to a shoulder injury. Stockstill, who had a 31/7 TD-INT ratio before getting injured in the Blue Raiders’ 10th game last year, led MTSU to a 30-23 win at Syracuse in Week 2. Stockstill threw for 269 yards and three TDs against the Orange.
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last eight roles as a double-digit favorite. The Huskies are 33-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Fresno State. One week after playing at Alabama and taking the cash as 42.5-point underdogs in a 41-10 defeat, the Bulldogs have to go face another foe that it was in the CFP last season. The Pac-12 will have the telecast at 9:30 p.m. Eastern.
Remember Shane Morris? The former Michigan QB is now the starter at Central Michigan. Morris guided the Chippewas to a 45-27 win at Kansas last week by throwing for 467 yards and five TDs without an interception. CMU is a 9.5-point ‘dog Saturday against Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. The Chippewas are 5-1 ATS as road ‘dogs during John Bonamego’s tenure.
Week 3 Picks and Predictions
By: Andrew Caley
Covers.com
Well, the Week 2 didn’t exactly go the way we mapped it out, but I guess that’s why they call it gambling?
Thanks to lackluster wins from Washington State and Army in Week 2, we had our first losing week for “The Triple Option” (thank you Baker Mayfield for the one win). But no need to fret, we’ll be poised to bounce back with more winners this week.
To get back on track, let’s keep things simple by looking at some stud quarterbacks in Week 3.
First though, cards on the table, this is the most I have ever written about college football and is it’s the most immersed into the college game I have ever been.
When it comes to the pro game since, I’ve been obsessed with it since I was a young lad watching Brett Favre play the game with a joy and passion like no other.
I didn’t really start paying attention to the college game until one night in my first year of university. Several of my buddies and I crammed into my tiny dorm room to watch the 2006 Rose Bowl on a tiny television as USC faced Texas for the national championship. It turned out to be one of the greatest football games I (or anyone else for that matter) had ever seen and boom, I was hooked (see what I did there?).
The two major programs meet again for the first time since that game this Saturday in Southern California. This time, in two very different positions heading into this matchup.
After a shaky first half against Western Michigan, USC has rolled in its last six quarters, outscoring the Broncos and Stanford 77-41, which includes a 42-24 thumping of the Cardinal, a team they have struggled with in recent years.
The Trojans are led by Heisman candidate and potential No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft, Sam Darnold. The Capistrano Beach, California native has looked the part of a top pick, especially in the game against the Cardinal, where he completed 80.8 percent of his passes for 316 yards with four touchdowns.
Darnold faces a Texas program that is still trying to find itself under new head coach Todd Herman.
Texas allowed 51 points in its season opening 51-41 home loss (as 18-point chalk) to a Maryland squad that ranked 88th in the nation in points scored in 2016. The Longhorns did manage to follow that up with a 56-0 win as 25.5-point home favorites over a bad San Jose State team.
Both of these powerhouse programs are ripe with talent, but the Trojans are tapped into theirs and Darnold puts them over the top.
Pick: USC -15.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Pittsburgh Panthers (+13, 63.5)
Oklahoma State and quarterback Mason Rudolph are the team more people need to be talking about.
The Cowboys and their signal caller are dark horse contenders for the College Football Playoff and the Heisman trophy respectively.
Oklahoma State has cruised in its first two games of the season (albeit against a couple of cupcakes), lighting up Tulsa by a score of 59-24 as 19.5-point favorites in Week 1 and following that up with a 44-7 thumping of Southern Alabama as 28-point chalk, with Rudolph slinging the ball all over the field in those games.
Rudolph has completed 72.6 percent of his passes for 638 yard with six touchdown passes with no interceptions, while adding two more scores on the ground.
Oklahoma State faces a Pittsburgh defense that has some holes in it to say the least. The Panthers currently rank 80th in the country against the pass this season, only one year removed from ranking 127th (of 128) in that category, when they allowed 343.1 yards per game.
Pittsburgh’s offense more than likely can’t keep up in a shootout, ranking 101st through two weeks. Expect Rudolph and the Cowboys to keep cruising.
Pick: Oklahoma State -11.5
Clemson Tigers at Louisville Tigers (+3, 58 )
When speaking about stud college quarterbacks, you’d be a fool to overlook current Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson (I’m talking to you NFL scouts).
The Louisville pivot has not only picked up right where he left off last season, he may be better. Jackson has thrown for more than 300 yards, while rushing for over 100 in the Cardinals’ first two games this season and his completion percentage is at 64.7 percent, up from 56.2 percent last year.
Jackson’s overall stats this season: 771 yards passing yards, five passing touchdowns, 239 rushing yards with three scores on the ground and it should be noted that Louisville’s first two games were on the road against quality opponents in Purdue and North Carolina.
People may also forget that Louisville probably should have won last season’s meeting, as they had the ball inside the 10 yard line on the final possession before eventually losing 42-36 as one-point road faves.
Kelly Bryant has been impressive in his first year as a starting quarterback and the Clemson defense has been scary thus far. But Jackson knows how to neutralize that D and Bryant isn’t Deshaun Watson. Plus, I think revenge plays a factor here.
Pick: Louisville +3
Last week: 1-2
Season to date: 4-2
Heisman Odds update
Jackson is still the favorite to claim back-to-back Heisman trophies, but with some other impressive quarterback performances in Week 2, he definitely has some company at the top. Jackson tops the board at the Westgate LV Superbook at 9/5, but is followed closely now by Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield at 5/1 and Darnold at 6/1.
We've talked plenty about the exploits of Jackson and Darnold this week, but it was Mayfield who was on another level last week. The Sooners quarterback scorched Ohio State's defense (full of NFL level talent by the way), completing 27 of 35 passes for 386 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in Oklahoma's 31-16 outright win in Columbus as 7.5-point pups.
Another signal caller we were talking about earlier, Rudolph, is also quietly climbing up the board, now at 12/1. UCLA's Josh Rosen (67.9 percent completion percentage, 820 yards, nine touchdowns, no interceptions) and Penn State's Saquon Barkely (359 total yards, 9.3 yards per carry, five total touchdowns) are also 12/1.
Not enough people talk about Alabama's Jalen Hurts. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions and leads the Crimson Tide with 209 yards rushing (8.4 yards per carry) adding two more scores on the ground. He presents some good value at 25/1.
Week 3 NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
By: Covers.com
Week 3 of the college football season is full of intriguing matchups, including a rematch of one of last season's best games when No. 2 Clemson visits Lamar Jackson and No. 14 Louisville. We break down each matchup in Top 25 betting cheat sheet to help you handicap all of Saturday's best action.
(8 ) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Pittsburgh Panthers (+11.5, 63.5)
* Cowboys QB Mason Rudolph has gone without an interception in 10 of his last 11 games, throwing 28 touchdowns with just two INTs over that span. Oklahoma State has recorded a defensive score in each of its first two games this season.
* Pittsburgh has averaged 36:25 in time of possession through two games, the sixth-highest rate in the nation. The Panthers haven't beaten a top-10 opponent at home since 2003, but upset then-No. 2 Clemson as a road dog last season.
LINE HISTORY: Most oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as about 13.5-point road favorites against the Panthers. They moved as high as -14.5, but since then it has been mostly Pittsburgh money, with the line coming all the way down to the current number of Oklahoma State -11.5. The total hit the board at 65.5 and has moved down two points to 63.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Oklahoma State's last four road games.
* Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
Air Force Falcons at (7) Michigan Wolverines (-23, 50)
* No team spreads carries around like the Falcons, who had 17 players with at least one rush attempt in their season-opening win over VMI. Air Force held its opponent to 95 total yards, the second-lowest total in school history.
* Michigan's starting offensive line has a 37-pound advantage over the Falcons' starting defensive line by average player weight. Safety Tyree Kinnel won conference player-of-the-week honors with nine tackles and a sack vs. Cincinnati.
LINE HISTORY: Michigan hit the board as hefty 26-point home chalk, but it has been mostly Air Force money since then, with the line moving down three points to the current number of Wolverines -23. The total has been a bit of a roller coaster. Since opening at 53.5 it went down all the way to 47, before bouncing back up to an even 50. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last seven non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Air Force's last six game vs. Big Ten opponents.
* Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Air Force is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
(23) Tennessee Volunteers at (25) Florida Gators (-4, 48.5)
* Volunteers RB John Kelly is the only player in the SEC to lead his team in rushing yards (208) and receptions (10). Tennessee's defense held Indiana State (0-for-11) without a third-down conversion last week.
* Florida ranks last in the FBC in rushing yards per game (11) following a 33-17 season-opening loss to Michigan. The Gators are still without nine players, including WR Antonio Callaway, who were suspended due to off-the-field issues.
LINE HISTORY: Florida opened as 5-point home faves and were bet to -5.5, but since then it has come back down to the current number of -4. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down slightly to 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
* Florida is 1-4 in its last five games in September.
* Over is 6-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in Tennessee's last nine games vs. SEC opponents.
Southern Methodist Mustangs at (20) Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-20, 64.5)
* SMU's 112 points through two games in the most in school history. The Mustangs are one of only nine FBS teams averaging more than 300 passing yards and 170 rushing yards per game.
* TCU has allowed just seven points to date, the fewest it has surrendered through the first two games of the season since 2012. The Horned Frogs rank fourth in the nation in yards allowed per game (166.5).
LINE HISTORY: TCU hit the board at most shops as 18-point home faves and bettors like the Horned Frogs in this matchup, moving the line to the current number of -20. The total has yet to move off the opening line of 64.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* SMU is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
* TCU is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games.
* Over is 4-0 in SMU's last four road games.
* Under is 5-1 in TCU's last six games overall.
(12) Wisconsin Badgers at Brigham Young Cougars (+16.5, 40.5)
* Badgers RB Jonathan Taylor leads the nation's true freshmen in rushing yards per game (155) and touchdowns (four). Wisconsin is one of eight FBS teams yet to allow a point in the second half of games so far this season.
* BYU's 23 wins over Power 5 opponents are tied for the most of any non-Power 5 school over the past 14 years. The Cougars have had 12 different receivers catch at least one pass in 2017.
LINE HISTORY: The Badgers hit the board as roughly 13-point favorites at most sportsbooks and shot all the way up to -17. The current number is Wisconsin -16.5. The total opened at 41 and is down slightly to 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
* BYU is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Wisconsin's last five road games.
* Under is 13-3 in BYU's last 16 games overall.
(2) Clemson Tigers at (14) Louisville Cardinals (+3, 58)
* Clemson has won all three meetings with Louisville, with each game decided by six points or fewer. The Tigers are 40-1 under head coach Dabo Swinney when rushing for 200 or more yards.
* Louisville has racked up at least 450 yards of total offense in six straight home games. QB Lamar Jackson has accounted for 1,010 yards and eight touchdowns through two games; he had 1,015 yards and 13 scores at this time in 2016.
LINE HISTORY: The Tigers and their elite defense opened this game favored by a field goal despite being on the road. They were briefly at -3.5 before coming back to the opening number. The total hit the board at 56 and has moved up two points to the current number of 58. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. ACC opponents.
* Louisville is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games in September.
* Over is 5-0 in its last five road games.
* Over is 5-2 in Louisville's last six games in September.
(16) Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates (+22, 60.5)
* A year after finishing in the top three nationally in third-down conversion defense, the Hokies rank 19th through two games at 26.3 percent. Josh Jackson's 557 total yards are the most for a Virginia tech QB in his first two starts since at least 1987.
* The Pirates reassigned defensive coordinator Kenwick Thompson following last week's 56-20 thumping at the hands of West Virginia. East Carolina surrendered an average of 615.5 yards per game in its two season-opening losses.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Hokies as 22-point road chalk, but they were quickly bet down as far as -18. Since then though, the line has returned to the opening number. The total opened at 60.5 dropped to 58.5 before coming back to the opening number. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 40 points in its previous game.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Virginia Tech's last 11 games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in ECU's last four games vs. ACC opponents.
Army Back Knights at (9) Ohio State Buckeyes (-30, 53)
* The Black Knights have converted nine of their 10 red-zone trips into touchdowns through two games. Army has also outscored foes 44-0 in the second half so far in 2017.
* Buckeyes QB J.T. Barrett is just 1-for-18 on passes longer than 20 yards dating back to 2016. Ohio State is 5-1 coming off a loss in the Urban Meyer era, prevailing by an average of nearly 29 points in the five victories.
LINE HISTORY: The Buckeyes opened as a healthy 29.5-point home favorite in this matchup and have been bet up slightly to the current number of -30. The total opened at 52.5 and has moved up slightly to the current number of 53. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Army is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after allowing 20 points or less in its previous game.
* Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Under is 5-2 in Army's last seven road games.
* Under is 5-2 in Ohio State's last seven home games.
Oregon State Beavers at (22) Washington State Cougars (-21, 65.5)
* Freshman LB David Morris erupted for 17 tackles against Minnesota last week, the most by a Beaver since 2010. Oregon State is averaging 356.7 yards through three games, the lowest rate in the Pac-12.
* Washington State leads the Pac-12 conference in passes (89) and attempts (115) while ranking second in passing yards per game (397). LB Peyton Pueller had 14 tackles and an interception return for a TD in last week's win over Boise State.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers pegged the Cougars as about 18-point home favorites, but bettors didn't think that was enough, moving the line as high as Cougars -21.5, before coming down to the current number of -21. The total hit the board at 63 and bettors like the Over, moving the number up to 65.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Oregon State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. Pac-12 opponents.
* Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five gaes overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Oregon State's last six games ater scoring less than 20 points in its previous game.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Tulane Green Wave at (3) Oklahoma Sooners (-35, 55)
* The Green Wave is one of 11 FBS teams that have yet to allow a turnover so far in 2017. Tulane has surpassed 100 rushing yards in 17 consecutive games dating back to 2015.
* Sooners QB Baker Mayfield has thrown 30 touchdowns against just three interceptions over his last nine games. Oklahoma has completed 36 passes of 10 or more yards, tied for third-most in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Sooners as 34-point home favorites and they have been bet up slightly to the current number of Oklahoma -35. The total opened at 57.5 and bettors like the Under, moving the number to 55. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Tulane is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.
* Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Tulane's last four non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Oklahoma's last six home games.
Colorado State Rams at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-28.5, 54.5)
* Rams QB Nick Stevens leads the FBS in passing yards (985) and has broken the 300-yard barrier in four straight games. The Colorado State defense has forced nine turnovers through three games, including seven interceptions.
* Alabama has held opponents below 200 total yards in 44 of 127 games since the start of the 2008 season. The Crimson Tide improved to 93-5 over that span when rushing for 140 or more yards, racking up 305 in last week's win over Fresno State.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the No. 1 ranked Crimson Tide as 27-point home chalk and they have been bet up to the current number of Alabama -28.5. The total opened at 53.5 and has been bet up to 54.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Colorado State's last six games in September.
* Under is 6-1 in Alabama's last seven non-conference games.
(11) Louisiana State Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+7.5, 55)
* The Tigers have allowed just one touchdown over their previous three games. LSU hasn't lost a fumble on a rushing attempt since last season against Florida, a stretch of 218 carries and counting.
* The Bulldogs rank fourth in the SEC in scoring defense (10.5), first in passing yards allowed per game (89) and third in tackles for loss (16). SMU is one of only three Power 5 teams yet to allow a sack.
LINE HISTORY: LSU opened as l6.5-point road faves over Mississippi State and bettors have pushed the Tigers to -7.5. The total hit the board at 52.5 and got as high as 56.5, before coming back down to the current number of 55. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
* LSU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Mississippi State.
* Over is 5-0 in Mississippi State's last five games vs. SEC opponents.
* Under is 5-1-2 in LSU's last eight games following a SU win.
(18) Kansas State Wildcats at Vanderbilt Commodores (+3.5, 49.5)
* Kansas State allowed just 59 passing yards last week vs. Charlotte, its lowest total since 2000. The Wildcats have gone six games without throwing an interception, their longest such streak in five years.
* The Commodores rank first in the nation in red-zone defense and opponent third-down conversion rate, and second in scoring defense. Their +64 scoring margin through the first two games is their best over that stretch since 1970.
LINE HISTORY: The Wildcats opened this matchup favored by a field goal on the road, were bet as high as -4.5, before coming back down to the current number of -3.5. The total hit the board at 48 and got as high 52.5, before coming back down to 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall
* Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 7-1 in Kansas State's last eight games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Vanderbilt's last five home games.
Georgia State at (5) Penn State Nittany Lions (-37, 55.5)
* Saturday's game marks the Bulldogs' first game on natural grass since 2015. QB Conner Manning's 82.4-percent completion rate in the season opener vs. Tennessee State was the highest in school history.
* Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley has thrown a touchdown passes in a school-record 17 consecutive games. RB Saquon Treadwell has scored in nine straight games, tied for the longest active streak in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Penn State as big 38.5-point home chalk for this matchup and bettors thought it was a few points too many, moving the line to the current nuber of -37. The total hit the board at 53.5 and has moved up a point and a half to the current number of 55. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Penn State is 10-0-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Georgia State in its last five road games.
* Over is 14-6 in Penn State's last 20 games overall.
Texas Longhorns at (4) USC Trojans (-15.5, 67.5)
* The Longhorns already have four non-offensive touchdowns after recording zero all of last season. Saturday’s win over San Jose State marked the fifth time since 1943 that Texas has had 600+ yards of offense while allowing less than 200.
* The Trojans have generated at least 400 yards of total offense in 12 consecutive games. USC is 18-10-1 all-time against current members of the Big 12, including a perfect 3-0 mark vs. Texas.
LINE HISTORY: The Trojans opened as 17-point favorites and have bounced back and forth between that and Trojans -15 for most of the week. The number is currently -15.5. The total opened at 67 and is up slightly to 67.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five ganes overall.
* USC is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
* Under is 8-1 in Texas' last nine games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in USC's last four games overall.
Fresno State Bulldogs at (6) Washington Huskies (-33, 56.5)
* The Bulldogs have committed just four penalties through their first two games, second-fewest in Division I. Fresno State has also turned the ball over just once, after committing 18 turnovers last season.
* Fresh off leading the nation in turnovers a season ago, the Huskies are already at a +5 turnover differential through two games. Washington is 29-11 all-time against current members of the Mountain West Conference.
LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened as big 33-point home favorites and the line has yet to move off that number. The total opened at 54.5 and has moved up to points to 56.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. Pac-12 opponents.
* Washington is 4-1 in its last five games vs. MWC opponents.
* Under is 4-1 in Fresno State's last five games overall.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Washington's last seven games overall.
San Jose State Spartans at (24) Utah Utes (26, 59.5)
* Spartans linebacker Frank Ginda leads Division I in total tackles (42) and ranks second in per-game average (14). San Jose State has committed five turnovers in its two losses, leading to 28 total points against.
* The Utes sit atop the Pac-12 and rank 12th nationally in average rushing yards against (59), while allowing the fewest first downs in the conference (25). Tyler Huntley ranks eighth among Division I QBs at 79.5 rushing yards per game.
LINE HISTORY: The Utes opened as healthy 26-point home faves in this matchup. They were bet up to Utah -27 before coming back down to the opening number. The total hit the board at 56 and bettors love the Over here, moving the number three and a half points to the current number of 59.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* San Jose State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.
* Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. MWC opponents.
* Under is 4-0 in San Jose State's last four games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Utah's last five games overall.
(19) Stanford Cardinal at San Diego State Aztecs (+8.5, 48.5)
* The Cardinal have won the time of possession battle in 28 of their last 35 games. RB Bryce Love is the first player in school history with more than 100 rushing yards in each of his first four career starts.
* RB Rashaad Penny ranks second in the nation in rushing yards (413) and is the only player in Division I with a rushing, receiving and return TD in the same game. The Aztecs have forced five fumbles over their first two games.
LINE HISTORY: Most books opened the Cardinal as 9-point road faves and they got as high as -9.5, but since then the number has come back down to Stanford -8.5. The total opened a 45.5 and has seen all over money, moving up three points to the current number of 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Stanford is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following a SU loss.
* San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-1 in Stanford's last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in San Diego State's last four games following a ATS win.