College Football Week 3 Betting Recap

Week 3 - The Aftermath
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Before getting to Butch Jones’s utter incompetence, the assbeating Mississippi State dealt out to LSU in Starkville, the pimpslap handed to Louisville by Clemson and the boiling hot seats across the SEC, let’s start our look back at Week 3 with what happened during the noon Eastern games.

For starters, we saw further evidence that Oklahoma State is for real. I mean, FOR REAL! Like this space pointed out all summer when hyping the Cowboys to go ‘over’ nine wins for their season win total, this offense might be the nation’s best. The defense? Not bad so far, but there are question marks on this side of the ball.

But here’s the thing: Mike Gundy’s defense doesn’t have to be good. In fact, there are going to be games where simply creating one turnover and getting 3-4 stops will be good enough.

Outside of Clemson and Alabama, two teams the Pokies won’t run into unless they make the College Football Playoff, what defenses do you see slowing down this offensive machine? Sure, naysayers can point at the early schedule and say OSU hasn’t played anybody. And to be fair, Mason Rudolph and Co. caught a break with South Alabama’s best cover corner Jalen Thompson being academically ineligible and Pittsburgh’s All-American candidate at safety in Jordan Whitehead being suspended.

But not many teams play back-to-back road games in non-conference play and ride home with blowout victories. Oklahoma State smashed South Alabama 44-7 in Mobile, a place where then-unbeaten and 19th-ranked San Diego State took a 42-24 spanking last year. (Oh, and we’ll get to this year’s version of the Aztecs below.) Then the Cowboys went to Heinz Field and stepped on Pitt’s throat early and often, leading 42-7 late in the second quarter en route to a 59-21 victory as 11-point favorites.

Mason Rudolph threw for 497 yards and five touchdowns against the Panthers. For the season, he has completed 72.3 percent of his passes for 1,135 yards with an 11/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Justice Hill ran for 91 yards and two scores on just 11 carries, while Jalen McCleskey caught seven balls for 162 yards and three TDs. James Washington had five receptions for 124 yards.

Oklahoma State opens Big 12 play in Week 4 by hosting undefeated TCU. Speaking of the Horned Frogs, they pulled away from SMU in a 56-36 non-covering victory thanks to Kenny Hill, who completed 24-of-30 throws for 365 yards and four TDs without an interception. Gary Patterson will certainly have a solid defensive play for the Pokies, but I don’t believe he has the horses to pull a stunner in Stillwater.

We talked all summer about what a terrible spot UCLA was in playing at Memphis in the mid-September heat and a noon Eastern start. As it turned out, the Tigers were given two weeks to prepare when their Week 2 game at UCF was postponed due to Hurricane Irma.

The Bruins and Tigers engaged in a thriller, the best game of Week 3. Riley Ferguson and Josh Rosen both put on a show, with Memphis winning a 48-45 decision as a three-point home underdog, cashing +130 money-line tickets in the process. The 93 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 71-point total.

Ferguson threw for 398 yards and six TDs compared to only one interception, while Anthony Miller hauled in nine receptions for 185 yards and two TDs. Rosen connected on 34-of-56 passes for 463 yards and four TDs, but he was intercepted twice.

I’m a guest on the Sharp & Benning Show on 1620 The Zone in Omaha every Thursday. During the summer, I expressed doubt about starting QB Tanner Lee, a transfer from Tulane. After he threw a pair of pick-sixes against a No. Illinois team that isn’t what it once was and was playing sans its starting QB, the natives in Lincoln are rightfully restless.

Northern Illinois cashed +350 money-line tickets in its 21-17 win at Nebraska as a 10.5-point underdog. Mike Riley had better win both upcoming games vs. Rutgers and at Illinois (on a short week), because the Cornhuskers are going to be double-digit ‘dogs in back-to-back home games vs. Wisconsin and Ohio State.

An open date looms after Nebraska hosts the Buckeyes. Therefore, a pink slip for Riley is a definite possibility if his team is 3-4 at that point, especially if Wisconsin and Ohio State issue woodshed treatment.

Texas A&M scored 31 straight unanswered points to push past Louisiana 45-21 as a 24-point home favorite. Kellen Mond threw for 301 yards and three TDs for the Aggies, who meet Arkansas at Jerry World this weekend. The stakes for Kevin Sumlin and Bret Bielema couldn’t possibly be higher.

Duke improved to 13-2 ATS in 15 games as a double-digit home favorite during David Cutcliffe’s 10-year tenure by beating Baylor 34-20 as an 11-point home favorite. The Blue Devils are unbeaten going into their eight-mile trek to Chapel Hill in Week 4. The Bears are winless, their roster is already decimated by injuries and Matt Rhule’s rebuilding effort is looking more daunting by the day.

If you only watched highlights of Florida-Tennessee, you probably thought it was a great game that featured an incredible ending to add another chapter to UT’s misery in this storied rivalry. You would be both right and wrong. First of all, yes, the Volunteers continue to create ways to lose to the Gators, who have now won 12 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings. Tennessee hasn’t won at The Swamp since 2003.

But this game was an awful display of coaching and execution (on both sides) for all of the first three quarters and most of the fourth. As always for going on at least a half-dozen years now, UF’s defense was nothing short of sensational, while the offense continued to provide next to nothing in terms of production. Leading 6-3 early in the fourth quarter (remember that when we get into the total momentarily), Florida true freshman CB C.J. Henderson snared an interception and went 16 yards into the end zone for his second pick-six of the season. At that point, Henderson had two TDs in seven quarters of play for the Gators, while the offense had yet to produce a TD.

On UF’s next drive, true freshman RB Malik Davis was inches away from completing a 74-yard TD run that was originally ruled that way on the field. However, the play was reversed on replay because UT’s Justin Martin lunged from behind and forced Davis to fumble before crossing the plane. The ball went out of the end zone, so that resulted in a touchback and Tennessee’s ball on its own 20.

Instead of UF taking a commanding 20-3 advantage, UT was left with plenty of hope and the Gators still hadn’t produced a TD all season long. With new life, Tennessee took all the momentum with a swift drive against a now-tiring UF defense that was capped by John Kelly’s 34-yard TD run. Florida answered and finally scored a TD on Feliepe Franks's five-yard TD pass to Brandon Powell.

But the Vols needed merely 30 seconds to answer back with a 28-yard scoring strike from Quinten Dormady to Ethan Wolf, slicing the deficit to 20-17 with 4:43 remaining. Now let’s get back to the total I referenced. At this point in the day, I had hit Oklahoma State for a winner, the Toledo-Tulsa ‘over’ was easily on track and I was looking at a 3-0 start with ‘under’ 50 for UF-UT. But now overtime was a possibility and a game that didn’t see an offensive TD scored until 8:36 left in the fourth quarter might result in a wild Bad Beat.

When the Vols inexplicably refused to give the ball to Kelly in the red zone (yet again!) and had to settle for a 27-yard field goal by Aaron Medley to knot the score at 20-20 with 50 ticks left, ‘under’ backers were scared to death. Then more craziness ensued.

On a second-and-five play from its own 28, Franks completed a four-yard pass close to a first down with 35 seconds remaining. UF had two timeouts left. The TV cameras weren’t on Jim McElwain, but I’m presuming he was arguing for the refs to stop the clock and measure for a first down. Whatever the case, he didn’t use a timeout and the Gators took forever to get a play run. Remember, UF has a kicker in Eddy Pineiro who made an 80-yarder (against air) on a YouTube video this summer and clearly has the leg to attempt a field goal from at least 65 yards out.

Nevertheless, by the time Mark Thompson’s short run got a first down, the clock had dripped from 35 seconds to nine. With one timeout remaining, a 20-yard gain would set up Pineiro for a 60-yard FG attempt. If you’re Jones at this point, you can live with that scenario. What you can’t do, OBVIOUSLY, is get beat deep. What you do here is rush three, send four defenders deep (literally set up way back at the goal line) and have your four others to defend the 20-yard pass to set up the FG. If at any point Franks has to scramble and thus use all the time left for that potential FG, you beat it into the four defenders at medium range to sprint back and defend the Hail Mary.

When Franks was flushed out of the pocket, that was the scenario. Yet somehow the Vols were in man coverage on UF’s fastest WR who was coasting past his man and behind the defense. Franks caught Tyrie Cleveland out of the corner of his eye and let it fly. It landed in Cleveland’s arms perfectly and The Swamp erupted. For the third time in four years, UF had somehow found a way to beat UT. Final Score: Florida 26, Tennessee 20.

Gambling results: Under 50. As for the side, it depended on when bettors placed their wagers. Florida spent much of the week favored by 4.5 or five points. The line shot up to six on Saturday afternoon and some books actually closed the number north of six. But for gamblers on the Vols at +4.5, five or 5.5, it was a trip to the Heartbreak Hotel. And since no time was remaining on the clock, there was no extra point.

Talk about drama!

Here’s the Big Picture: Jones is an idiot with zero clue about how to manage a game. He’s blown three of the last four games against Florida that should’ve been UT wins. He blew the Oklahoma game two years ago. His decisions in a loss to Arkansas two years ago were questionable at best. He’s 2-2 against Vandy, has never beaten Will Muschamp and is 14-19 in SEC play. Factor in the nonsense and excuses that come out of his mouth regularly, and you have a rabid fan base that hates him and wants him gone. That’s his fate come late November.

As for McElwain, he’s now 12-1 at home, unbeaten in SEC play at The Swamp and 2-for-2 on getting his team to Atlanta. That’s the side of the story for him with the glass half full. On the slip side, federal grand theft charges are reportedly looming for at least two players he recruited, including the team’s best player, Antonio Callaway.

Nine players remain suspended, including the offense’s best RB Jordan Scarlett, and there’s no telling if and when those players will be back in uniform. Most important, McElwain was brought to UF to bring some life to an offense that has been an unfathomable disaster since 2009. Florida fans are accustomed to Fun ‘N’ Gun offense, but this side of the ball has been worse on McElwain’s watch than Muschamp’s.

With the exception of the 4-8 season in 2013 when the last nine games were started by QBs (Tyler Murphy and Skyler Mornhinweg) that had never taken a snap under center going into that campaign, Muschamp’s offenses averaged 25.5, 26.5 and 30.3 points per game. In McElwain’s first two seasons when defenses recruited by Muschamp led the Gators to SEC East titles during the Dark Ages Era of the division, the offense has averaged 23.2 and 23.9 PPG. And now in 2017, the offense has scored two TDs in two games.

Is there young talent on the roster? Yes. Is UF still capable of winning the East again? Yes. But McElwain was hired by Jeremy Foley, who from this view looks like his career of hiring football coaches is going to be a 1-for-4 batting average. New AD Scott Stricklin likes first downs and TDs, and McElwain had better start producing them.

UF has beaten Kentucky 30 consecutive times, but a loss in Lexington this week is a real possibility. So is a loss at home to Vandy the next week. McElwain’s seat isn’t hotter than that of Jones, Sumlin and a host of others in the SEC, but that could change real quickly in the coming weeks. Obviously, things could go the other way, but I’m on record now as saying that I strongly believe that McElwain is not The Guy for the Gators in the long run.

Speaking of those Wildcats coached by Mark Stoops, they went into South Carolina and won 23-13 as 5.5-point underdogs to improve to 3-0. Kentucky has won 10 of its last 13 regular-season games. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks took a crushing blow when junior WR Deebo Samuel was most likely lost for the season due to a broken leg.

Samuel was playing like a first-team All-American. On the first play of South Carolina’s season, he returned a kick for a TD and scored three TDs in the 35-28 win over N.C. State. When USC fell down 10-0 at Missouri, he responded with two TDs in a four-play sequence. Then on the first play from scrimmage against UK, he caught a 68-yard TD pass for his sixth TD of the year.

Mississippi State remained unbeaten by trouncing LSU 37-7 as a 7.5-point home underdog. The best hire of the offseason was clearly made by Dan Mullen, who pulled defensive coordinator Todd Grantham away from Louisville. Before Grantham was at U of L, he was the DC at Georgia. MSU travels to Athens to face UGA between the hedges in Week 4.

Nick Fitzgerald looks like a legit Heisman Trophy contender after throwing for 180 yards and two TDs without an interception vs. LSU. The junior QB also ran for 88 yards and two TDs on 14 attempts. For the season, Fitzgerald has thrown for 543 yards and seven TDs compared to only one interception. He has rushed for 240 yards and five TDs while averaging 7.7 yards per carry.

Clemson went on the road and smashed U of L by a 47-21 count as a three-point road ‘chalk.’ Kelly Bryant continued to look extremely sharp, throwing for 316 yards and one TD without an interception. The junior QB also ran for a pair of scores, while true freshman RB Travis Etienne rushed for 98 yards and one TD on just six totes.

Vanderbilt is 3-0 for the first time since 2011 after knocking off Kansas State 14-7 as a 4.5-point home underdog. Kyle Shurmur threw one TD pass and ran for another score to pace the Commodores, who have also seen the ‘under’ go 3-0. Vandy is now 9-3 as a home underdog since Derek Mason took over, with a showdown at home vs. Alabama on deck.

Southern Cal survived an extremely game effort from Texas to win a double-overtime thriller, 27-24. Sam Darnold threw three TD passes, but he was intercepted twice, including one pick-six. The Longhorns easily took the cash as 17-point underdogs, as Tom Herman’s success as a double-digit ‘dog continued. The Trojans are staring at back-to-back road assignments, including a trip to Pullman on a short week after facing unbeaten Cal in Berkeley.

Justin Wilcox is doing a great job with the Golden Bears, who rallied from a 16-7 halftime deficit to clip Ole Miss, 27-16, as seven-point home ‘dogs. The Rebels didn’t have star sophomore WR A.J. Brown, who is out for at least 1-2 more weeks with a sprained MCL. Brown was leading the nation in receiving yards going into Week 3 after bringing down 16 catches for 389 yards and four TDs in his team’s first two games.

San Diego State is unbeaten and Stanford is 1-2 after the Aztecs captured a 20-17 win over the Cardinal as an 8.5-point home ‘dog. San Diego State’s defense limited Stanford to 238 yards of total offense. Rashaad Penny was the catalyst for the winners, rushing for 175 yards and one TD on 32 workmanlike carries. Penny is the country’s leader in rushing yards with 588 and he’s scored six TDs in three different ways.

One week after leaving the Boise State game with an injury, Washington State star QB Luke Falk returned to lead his team past winless Oregon State, 52-23. Falk completed 37-of-49 throws for 396 yards and six TDs without an interception.

Purdue has found itself a coach. Jeff Brohm’s team went on the road and blasted Missouri 35-3 as a six-point underdog to improve to 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread. Brohm took over a program that had won three games or fewer in four straight seasons.

The impact of Brohm’s outstanding coaching is also being felt at Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers blew a fourth-quarter lead in a 23-22 home loss to La. Tech one week after they dropped a 20-7 decision at Illinois.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

The coaching in the SEC has never been worse. Only six of the 14 teams in the league feel good about their situations right now. Those schools are Alabama, Mississippi State, Vandy, Kentucky, South Carolina and Georgia. And Stoops was on the hot seat at this point last year, while Smart went 7-5 in his first season. And of course, Muschamp has been fired from an SEC job before. Furthermore, MSU is going to have to fend off fellow SEC schools for Mullen in December. Names to think about with SEC openings galore coming in November and December: Bobby Petrino, Chip Kelly, Mullen, Lane Kiffin, Jeff Brohm and Mike Leach. If things go south on McElwain at UF, there's the Stricklin-Mullen connection from MSU and Mullen's time at UF that included a pair of national titles. One thing to consider with Mullen like Bo Bounds pointed out on Monday's edition of the Paul Finebaum Show, he is making nearly $5 million per year. So that's the starting point on negotiations with him. As a UF alum, I would want Brohm, who is younger and will come cheaper, though I have no clue about his buyout situation at Purdue.

Texas All-American OT Connor Williams is out indefinitely with a meniscus tear and sprains of his MCL and PCL. He is slated to have surgery sometime next week.

Michigan’s leading WR is out indefinitely. True freshman Tarik Black needs surgery to repair a cracked foot suffered in this past Saturday’s non-covering home win over Air Force. Black had made 11 catches for 149 yards and one TD in the first three games of his career.

BYU starting QB Tanner Mangum is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. Mangum has struggled this season with only two TD passes compared to four interceptions. Hell, BYU is one of the nation’s biggest disappointments to date, with a 1-3 SU record and a 0-4 ATS mark. Remember, the Cougars went 9-4 last season with their defeats coming by combined points. They brought back six starters on offense and seven on defense.

After making 34 consecutive starts for Washington State at MLB, senior Peyton Pelluer will miss the rest of the regular season with a fractured foot, according to a report from the Lewiston Tribune. Pelluer had a team-best 93 tackles for the Cougars in 2016.

McElwain has dubbed Florida star CB Duke Dawson as ‘highly questionable’ at UK after sustaining a head injury vs. UT. Dawson tweeted on Monday that he was fine and would play in Lexington, but McElwain has refuted that notion -- at least for now. Dawson has two interceptions in two games to date, including a pick-six in the loss to Michigan.

Middle Tennessee could be without its two best players Saturday vs. Bowling Green. QB Brent Stockstill couldn't go in a 34-3 loss at Minnesota due to a shoulder injury. Then WR Richie James was injured against the Gophers. Both are listed as 'questionable.' Stockstill had a 31/7 TD-INT ratio last season, while James had 105 receptions for 1,625 yards and 12 TDs.

Nevada was the biggest ‘chalk’ to lose outright, falling 30-28 to Idaho State as a 34.5-point home favorite.

Tennessee has two more costly injuries on defense. Starting LB Cortez McDowell is done for the season with a wrist injury, while senior safety Todd Kelly is out indefinitely. That leaves the Vols without all three of their projected starting LBs and their leading returning tackler (Kelly). LBs Darrin Kirkland and Austin Smith went down with season-enders in August.

UTEP fired Brent Pease as its offensive coordinator on Monday. Pease is a former OC at both Florida and Boise State.

Georiga Tech will be without starting senior tackle Andrew Marshall and reserve LB David Curry vs. Pittsburgh. With its Week 3 game at UCF postponed due to Hurricane Irma, Paul Johnson’s club has had an extra week to prepare for its ACC opener. The Panthers, who have dropped back-to-back games by lopsided margins at Penn State and vs. Oklahoma State, will get star safety Jordan Whitehead back against the Yellow Jackets. Whitehead, a junior who garnered second-team All-ACC honors in both his freshman and sophomore campaigns, will be making his season debut after serving a three-game suspension. Ga. Tech was a 7.5-point home ‘chalk’ on Monday morning.

Auburn dismissed QB Sean White from the program Monday after he was arrested early Sunday morning on public-intoxication charges. White was the AU starter for most of last season. Also, DT Byron Cowart has left the program. Cowart was a five-star recruit and Rivals.com had him as the nation’s No. 1 prep player in 2014, but he made only 15 tackles for AU in 26 career games.