Missouri at South Carolina: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Missouri at South Carolina (-10, 48)
Entering a high-profile matchup with concerns over the health of your starting quarterback is hardly an ideal recipe, but that's the situation facing both teams when No. 8 South Carolina prepares to host Missouri on Saturday in SEC play. Gamecocks quarterback Connor Shaw has already missed one game and was knocked out of last week's win over Alabama-Birmingham after aggravating an injury to his throwing shoulder, but South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier insisted the junior will play Saturday. Missouri QB James Franklin also sat out last week with inflammation in his right shoulder but said he is certain he will play in the Tigers' first conference road game.
LINE: South Carolina -10, O/U 48.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-80s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out the west.
ABOUT MISSOURI (2-1, 0-1 SEC): The Tigers rebounded from a crushing loss to Georgia in their SEC debut to outlast Arizona State 24-20 a week ago. One early trend Missouri will look to correct is wilting late in games after getting off to fast starts. Georgia scored 32 second-half points against Missouri and Arizona State put up a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to turn it into a nail-biter. The return of Franklin - who declined a pain-killing injection last week - should provide a boost after redshirt freshman Corbin Berkstresser made his first career start last week. Prize recruit Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to make much of an impact, with five receptions for 39 yards.
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (3-0, 1-0 SEC): After squeaking out a four-point win at Vanderbilt in the season opener, the Gamecocks have steamrolled overmatched East Carolina and UAB by a combined 97-16. Shaw exited last week's win prior to halftime with a hairline fracture, but South Carolina has not missed a beat behind backup Dylan Thompson. The sophomore has thrown for 507 yards and five touchdowns against zero interceptions. Star RB Marcus Lattimore has scored four TDs in his three games but has seen a limited workload in the back-to-back routs. The Gamebacks will be without standout safety D.J. Swearinger, who was suspended one game for a helmet-to-helmet hit last week.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in Tigers’ last four games as a road underdog.
* Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
* Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
EXTRA POINTS
1. The teams have met only twice - both in bowl games - and Missouri won both matchups, including a 38-31 victory in the 2005 Independence Bowl.
2. The Gamecocks are seeking their second straight 4-0 start and eighth consecutive win, which would be the second-longest in school history and one shy of the record nine-game streak set in 1984.
3. Missouri SS Kenronte Walker was named the SEC defensive player of the week after batting away a pass in the end zone and making an interception on Arizona State's final two drives last Saturday.
Michigan at Notre Dame: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Michigan at Notre Dame (-5, 49.5)
Notre Dame’s defense has looked impressive in winning its first three games. It will get a different sort of test when the 15th-ranked Fighting Irish host No. 17 Michigan and Denard Robinson on Saturday night. Robinson has been a thorn in the side of Notre Dame in each of the last two meetings between the schools, both of which ended in last-second Wolverines wins. But the Fighting Irish have allowed only 30 points total through their first three games and easily dispatched Michigan State last Saturday to announce themselves as a legitimate contender. Michigan failed its first test against a national opponent and could use the momentum of a road win over a nationally-ranked team heading into the Big Ten slate next month.
LINE: Notre Dame -5, O/U 49.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 60 percent chance of rain. Winds will be out of the west at 13 mph.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (2-1): The Wolverines have broken the hearts of the Irish in four-point victories each of the last three seasons. Tate Forcier threw the final touchdown pass with 11 seconds left in 2009 and Robinson ran in with 27 seconds left in 2010’s 28-24 win. The 2011 game was even closer, as Michigan recovered from a 24-7 deficit with 28 fourth-quarter points for a 35-31 triumph. Robinson hit Roy Roundtree on a 16-yard pass with two seconds on the clock to put that one away. Michigan was slow out of the gate in 2012, getting trounced by Alabama on the opening weekend and squeezing by Air Force before putting it all together in a 63-13 win over Massachusetts. Robinson put up 397 yards of total offense in the win and completed two-thirds of his passes for three touchdowns. He has accounted for 948 yards of offense in his two starts against Notre Dame.
ABOUT NOTRE DAME (3-0): The breakdowns in previous losses to Michigan seem to have been addressed by coach Brian Kelly, who has remade the Fighting Irish into a fearsome defensive bunch. Notre Dame held Michigan State to 237 total yards and forced a turnover in a 20-3 triumph on the road last Saturday thanks to a strong front seven. That front will have to be even better against Michigan without safety Jamoris Slaughter, who tore his left Achilles tendon against the Spartans. The Irish have not allowed a rushing touchdown and will try to keep Robinson in the pocket and force interceptions. Offensively, Notre Dame is succeeding by not making mistakes. Everett Golson has only one interception in the first three games and has been held under 200 yards passing in two of the first three games in the conservative approach.
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Notre Dame’s last six games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Under is 4-0 in Wolverines’ last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
EXTRA POINTS
1. The Irish have not started 4-0 since 2002 and have not beaten consecutive top-20 teams since that same season.
2. The Wolverines lead the all-time series 23-15-1 and have taken five of the last six.
3. Notre Dame is 80-23-1 all-time in September home games and is 6-2 all-time in night games at home.
Clemson at FSU
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Haven’t we seen this script written before? It usually goes something like this: Florida State is unbeaten into late September, catapulting into the Top 10 of the national rankings and pundits galore declare the Seminoles as being ‘back.’
On the Tim Brando Show earlier this week, FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher was asked what exactly does ‘being back’ mean, anyway? Fisher replied to Brando, “I have no idea.”
Well, if Jimbo needs a history lesson, we’re honored to provide one. Once upon a time, Bobby Bowden led the Seminoles to a pair of national championships and 14 consecutive top-five finishes.
Since then, however, FSU has lost at least three games for 11 straight seasons and it had four or more losses in 10 of those 11 years.
Nevertheless, the oddsmakers in Nevada are bullish on the ‘Noles, who were 14½-point favorites over Clemson at most spots as of Friday afternoon. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers was 56. Gamblers can take the Tigers on the money line for a generous plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).
FSU (3-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) beat up on a pair of FCS foes before opening its ACC slate with a 52-0 clubbing of Wake Forest as a 28-point home ‘chalk’ last Saturday. E.J. Manuel threw a pair of touchdowns passes without being intercepted and also rushed for a 16-yard score. Chris Thompson produced 197 rushing yards and two TDs on only nine carries.
For the season, Manuel is completing 71.2 percent of his throws and has six TD passes compared to just one interception. Thompson is averaging an incredible 14.1 yards per carry, while James Wilder Jr. has four rushing TDs and a 6.9 YPC average.
The ‘Noles have outscored their three foes by a combined score of 176-3.
Clemson (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) has dominated FSU in recent years, winning outright in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings while going 6-1 ATS. The Tigers collected a 35-30 win as 2 ½-point home favorites last season.
Tajh Boyd torched the FSU defense for 344 passing yards and three TDs without a pick. Sammy Watkins had seven receptions for 141 yards and two TDs.
Dabo Swinney’s team has wins over Auburn (26-19), Ball St. (52-27) and Furman (41-7) on its resume. The Tigers took down AU without the services of Watkins, who was suspended for the first two games of the year.
In his season debut last week, Watkins had four catches for 52 yards and a 58-yard TD run against the Paladins. For the year, Boyd has connected on 63-of-86 passes (73.3%) for 747 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. Senior RB Andre Ellington has rushed for 331 yards and four TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC.
During Swinney’s five-year tenure, Clemson has compiled a 5-2 spread record as a road underdog. Meanwhile, FSU owns an 8-6 ATS mark as a home favorite under Fisher.
The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight encounters between these ACC adversaries.
ABC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
When these squads met at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee two years ago, FSU won by a 16-13 count but the Tigers took the money as 6½-point underdogs.
Because the rest of the ACC Atlantic looks extremely soft, this game has a Tennessee-Florida (circa 1990s) type feel to it. In other words, the loop will likely be decided Saturday night, as the Clemson-FSU winner will obviously have the inside track to get to the ACC title game.
LSU owns a 12-7-2 ATS record as a road favorite during Les Miles’s eight-year tenure. The Bayou Bengals are enormous 21-point favorites Saturday at Auburn.
Auburn owns a 4-1 spread record in five games as a home underdog on Gene Chizik’s watch.
Kentucky is 2-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Joker Phillips. The ‘Cats are catching 24 points Saturday at Florida, which has beaten UK in 25 straight head-to-head meetings.
Big Ten Report - Week 4
By ASAWins.com
There's one marquee matchup again this week in the Big Ten. And again it features a Michigan team facing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Irish embarrassed Michigan State in East Lansing last week. This time it's the Wolverines traveling to South Bend to try and get a win against the Golden Domers. Full analysis of that game and the rest of the Big Ten schedule inside…
Michigan (+5.5) at Notre Dame - (NBC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
UM: Last week vs. UMass: W 63-13
ND: Last week at Michigan State: W 20-3
This is the headliner of the week in the Big Ten and Michigan could use a win to give the conference back some pride after the Irish smoked Michigan State last week and Purdue earlier this season. The Wolverines are off of a blowout win over UMass. The Wolves dominated that game to the tune of 585 yards and 63 points with eight different players scoring a touchdown. Before beating a hapless FCS UMass, Michigan lost its only road game at Alabama and looked shaky at home against Air Force. A strong showing here would put the Wolverines back on the national map.
The defense shined as the offense continued to sputter in Notre Dame's big win over Michigan State last week. The Irish held Michigan State to just 237 total yards, 15 first downs, and 3 points last week. They never allowed MSU's rushing attack gain legs as the Spartans rushed for just 50 yards on 25 carries. Offensively QB Everett Golson struggled and was just 14-of-32 for 128 yards and one touchdown and the Irish were just 1-for-14 on third downs. RB Cierre Wood returned from suspension to rush for 56 yards on 10 carries.
Michigan has beaten Notre Dame three consecutive years and five of the last six overall. QB Denard Robinson has had two huge games against the Irish. Robinson has 582 pass yards and five touchdowns and 366 rush yards and three touchdowns in two career starts against the Golden Domers (both victories).
Including last season, seven of the last eight meetings have been straight-up wins by the underdog. Michigan is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog.
Minnesota (-1) vs. Syracuse - (Big Ten Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
UM: Last week vs. Western Michigan: W 28-23
SU: Last week vs. FCS Stony Brook: W 28-17
The Gophers will try to go 4-0 for the first time since 2008 but will have to do so without injured QB MarQueis Gray (suffered a high ankle sprain against Western Michigan last week and is expected to miss 2-4 weeks). Gray has had seven of Minnesota's 13 touchdowns so far this season. QB Max Shortell played well relieving Gray on Saturday. He threw for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns against Western Michigan. The sophomore is much more of a pocket-passer and doesn't bring the same kind of threat with his legs that Gray does, but Syracuse has allowed 10 touchdown passes through three games, so Shortell could have a big day. Defensively the Gophers will face their toughest test of the season thus far against Syracuse.
The Orange are 1-2 but played Northwestern close and hung with USC. On the offensive side, QB Ryan Nassib has looked great as he has tossed nine touchdowns and just three interceptions and is averaging 376 passing yards per game (5th nationally). Syracuse has allowed an average of 200 rush yards per game through three games so expect the Gophers to run it early and often to keep Nassib off the field.
Minnesota won at Syracuse in 2009 in overtime. This is only the third non Big Ten BCS opponent that Minnesota has faced at home since 1998 (Lost to USC in 2010 and to California in 2009). Syracuse is 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in its last 12 road openers.
Penn State (-7.5) vs. Temple - (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
PSU: Last week vs. Navy: W 34-7
TU: Last week: BYE
The Nittany Lions finally got a win last week against Navy after losing to Ohio and Virginia. They'll try and use that momentum to avoid losing to Temple for the first time since 1941. Offensively they put up 34 points against Navy after scoring just 30 total in the previous two weeks combined. PSU still ranks 107th in rush offense and 101st in total offense. It's the defense that's keeping this team afloat. They are bending a little bit (68th in rush yards allowed and 69th in total yards allowed) but not breaking (28th in points allowed).
Temple didn't inspire a whole lot of confidence in losing to Maryland last week. The Owls gained just 230 yards and tallied 9 first downs against the Terrapins. QB Coyer has completed just 12-of-29 passes so far this season (41%) and this offense ranks 114th in total yards through two games. Temple has been a thorn in PSU's side the past two seasons, however. The Owls led 13-12 into the 2nd half the last time in State College and they led 13-9 last season against the Nittany Lions. Temple lost both games outright but covered each.
Temple has covered three straight against PSU. Penn State is 1-7 ATS its last eight home games as a seven-point or more favorite against non-Big Ten squads.
Injury update: Running backs Derek Day (shoulder) and Bill Belton (ankle) are both day-to-day for the Temple game, with Day having a better chance to return than Belton, coach Bill O'Brien said. Left tackle Donovan Smith (ankle) also is day-to-day after missing the Navy game.
Illinois (-2.5) vs. Louisiana Tech - (Big Ten Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
UI: Last week vs. FCS Charleston Southern: W 44-0
LT: Last week vs. Rice: W 56-37
Illinois has looked good on its home field and not good in its only trip away from Champaign. Saturday's win against Charleston Southern showed very little about the Illini. They won 44-0 and allowed just nine first downs and 125 total yards to its hapless FCS foe. QB Reilly O'Toole tossed for five touchdowns as regular starting QB Scheelhaase continued to sit out with an ankle injury. Scheelhaase could be back for this one, but his status is still uncertain. Either way, defending WAC Champion Louisiana Tech will not be an easy win for Illinois.
Louisiana Tech's opener against Texas A&M was cancelled due to hurricane Isaac. Since then the Bulldogs have scored 56 points apiece in wins against Houston and Rice. QB Colby Cameron (7 touchdowns, 0 interceptions) leads an offense that ranks 9th in rushing, 16th in passing, 3rd in points, and 5th overall. The big problem with LA Tech is its defense. They allowed 49 points at Houston and 37 against Rice. This unit ranks 124th in total defense and 121st in scoring defense.
LA Tech is 1-10 SU in its last 10 road games visiting BCS-schools but 3-1 ATS in its last four. Illinois is 11-3 SU but just 3-11 ATS its last 14 home games against non-BCS schools.
Wisconsin (-17.5) vs. UTEP - (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
UW: Last week vs. Utah State: W 16-14
UTEP: Last week vs. New Mexico State: W 41-28
Who would've thought that three games into the season UTEP would have a better scoring offense than Wisconsin? We didn't. UTEP is ranked 106th in scoring offense. Wisconsin is ranked 113th. Wisconsin has played so poorly this season that no game is safe at this point. The Miners gave Oklahoma a minor scare in Week one and we wouldn't be surprised if they did the same to the Badgers here. Utah State outgained the Badgers and missed a field goal late in the 4th quarter that would've given Wisco its 2nd loss of the season. The Badgers are likely making the switch at QB from Danny O'Brien to redshirt freshman Joel Stave. Stave played in the 2nd half last week and completed 2-of-6 passes for 15 yards.
As we said above, the Miners put a scare into Oklahoma in week one and did the same to Mississippi in week two (both losses) before notching their first win against New Mexico State last week. A win over NM State is nothing to write home about, but it was a start. QB Nick Lamaison tossed for 300 yards and four touchdowns and UTEP tallied 177 rush yards.
Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS this season, and 3-7 ATS its last 10 in home games against non-conference opponents. UTEP is 14-6 ATS its last 20 games as an underdog of 17 or more.
Iowa (-15.5) vs. Central Michigan - (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
UI: Last week vs. FCS Northern Iowa: W 27-16
CMU: Last week: BYE
Iowa found a little bit of an offensive rhythm against Northern Iowa last week and should not have much trouble if it can keep that up. RB Mark Wiesman rushed for 113 yards and 3 touchdowns and this offense totaled 429 total yards in the 11-point victory. The strong suit of this team continues to be its defense. They rank 24th in total defense and 18th in scoring defense. They haven't allowed more than 17 points in any of their three games so far.
The Chippewas got drilled at home by fellow Big Ten member Michigan State two weeks ago and had an off week last week. The Spartans put up 495 yards and 41 points while holding CMU to just 245 yards and 7 points. MSU appears to be better than Iowa at this point in the season so take those stats with a grain of salt. Still, if Iowa can get its rushing attack going against this CMU defense that has allowed 181 per game, the Hawkeyes should win comfortably.
Iowa is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home games as a 14-point favorite against non-BCS schools. Central Michigan is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Big Ten squads.
Injury update: RB Damon Bullock (head) is doubtful and RB Greg Garmon (elbow) is questionable for Saturday. Coach Kirk Ferentz said Mark Weisman will start for Iowa following his three-touchdown performance.
Ohio State (-36.5) vs. UAB - (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
OSU: Last week vs. California: W 35-28
UAB: Last week at South Carolina: L 6-49
This should be an easy "tune-up" victory for the Buckeyes before their showdown at Michigan State next Saturday. For the 2nd straight week, the Buckeyes had troubles scoring in the 2nd half. It took two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to put away a pesky California team away after Central Florida gave them a scare two weeks ago. QB Miller continues to impress in Urban Meyer's spread scheme. He has 611 pass yards and 377 rush yards and 12 total touchdowns. He and this offense should have no problem putting up points against UAB.
The Blazers have been outscored 88-35 in their first two games, losses to Troy and South Carolina. UAB ranks 108th in yards against and 123rd in points allowed. Offensively this team was completely shutdown by South Carolina. The Blazers had 27 rush yards on 42 carries and most of the 265 total yards came in garbage time during the blowout. OSU allowed over 500 yards to the Cal Bears, but that won't happen here.
Ohio State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a 30-point favorite or more. UAB is 0-14 SU (7-7 ATS) on the road against BCS-schools - losing by an average of 23 points per game.
Michigan State (-33) vs. Eastern Michigan - (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)
MSU: Last week vs. Notre Dame: L 3-20
EMU: Last week at Purdue: L 16-54
Expect a fired up Spartans squad for this game after the home loss to Notre Dame a week ago. Notre Dame held MSU to just 237 total yards, including 50 yards on 25 carries. It was the first time Michigan State had been held touchdown-less at home since 1991. The defense was solid again, only allowed 300 total yards and 20 points, but deficiencies on offense cost the Spartans last week. Eastern Michigan ranks dead last nationally in rush-defense (312 rush YPG allowed), so expect the Spartans to have a big game on the ground behind Le'Veon Bell.
EMU lost last week to fellow Big Ten Purdue 54-16. The Eagles were beaten in the first two weeks by Ball State and FCS Illinois State. They've been bad all around. They rank 111th in total offense and 119th in total defense and they have more turnovers than touchdowns this season. They are 0-5 SU & ATS in the last five games against Michigan State and have lost each by an average of 41 points per game (none by fewer than 32 points).
Michigan State is 8-1 ATS its last nine non-conference home games as a 20-point favorite or more.
Nebraska (NL) vs. FCS Idaho State - (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)
UN: Last week vs. Arkansas State: W 42-13
Nebraska bounced back after its loss to UCLA to beat Arkansas State handily last week. The Huskers gained 527 total yards, 347 of them coming on the ground. They've looked very good against weak competition but struggled against their only big-name opponent so far. Expect another big win over FCS Idaho State in this "tune-up" before Big Ten play begins.
Northwestern (NL) vs. FCS South Dakota - (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)
NU: Last week vs. Boston College: W 22-13
After improving to 3-0 against three straight BCS teams, the Wildcats get a bit of a break here and should improve to 4-0. Offensively the Wildcats put up 560 total yards, rushed for 293, completed 30-of-40 passes, and totaled 34 first downs - but that only translated into 22 total points. Still, it was a promising win over Boston College as they played stout defense for the 2nd consecutive week, only allowing 13 points. South Dakota did pull an upset at Minnesota two years ago, but the Coyotes lost to Maine in their season opener.
Bye: Indiana
IU: Last week vs. Ball State: L 39-41
The Hoosiers lost their first game last week at home against Ball State. BSU kicked a 42-yard field goal as time expired and won the game by two points. Starting quarterback Cameron Coffman left last week's loss with a hip pointer, and third string QB Nate Sudfeld entered the game and performed well. Coach Kevin Wilson said Coffman remains the starter, at least right now. IU's defense still isn't up to snuff. The Hoosiers allowed 440 yards and 41 points without recording a turnover against Ball State. That can't happen if Indiana wants to win a few Big Ten games.
Bye: Purdue
PU: Last week vs. Eastern Michigan: W 54-16
So far Danny Hope's squad looks like the best postseason-eligible team in the wide-open Leaders Division (Ohio State ineligible). Purdue definitely has the defense to go a long way this season as the Boilers rank 22nd in total defense and 19th in points against. If they can get solid quarterback play going forward, this will be a dangerous team.
NCAAF Week 4 Preview
Home side won last five Clemson-Florida State games, with favorites covering three of last four; Tigers lost five of last six visits to Florida State, with five of six losses by 14+ points (lost 16-13/41-27 last two times here). Clemson is 5-2 as road dog under Swinney; they ran ball for 320 yards in 26-19 win over Auburn, only good team they’ve played this year, which is one more than Florida State has played. Seminoles are 13-8 as favorite under Fisher, 8-6 at home; they crushed first three cupcakes they played by combined score of 176-3, but two were I-AA teams, and FSU had revenge motive against Wake (had lost four of previous six to Deacons).
Georgia won 14 of last 15 games with Vanderbilt, winning last five (2-3 vs spread), with only two of five by more than 10 points. Improved Vandy lost six of last seven visits here but went 4-3 vs spread in those games; they outrushed Georgia 199-117 in LY’s 33-28 (+11) home loss, but used different QB in last week’s I-AA walkover, benching returning starter Rodgers (Aaron’s brother), after he completed 30-56 passes in opening losses to South Carolina/Northwestern. Vandy is 2-6 as road underdog last 2+ years. Dawgs are 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite, 0-2 this year (won 45-23/56-20 over stiffs)- they play Tennessee/South Carolina next two weeks, better not look ahead.
First road game for RichRod’s Arizona squad that hammered Oklahoma State 59-38 at home two weeks ago; Wildcats lost last four games with Oregon by average score of 51-36, so total of 77 seems reachable. Underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven series games, but 1-3-1 in last five played here. Oregon has run ball for average of 329 yards/game in first three wins. Arizona was 4-6-2 as road dog last four years under Stoops; Ducks are 11-8-1 as home favorites under Kelly, 0-2 this year (won 57-34/42-25 over lesser foes, taking foot off gas in second half). Scary thing about Oregon is they start a redshirt freshman QB and three sophs on offensive line.
UCLA is vastly improved under former NFL coach Mora, averaging 622 yards, 41 ppg in 3-0 start, including 36-30 upset of Nebraska; Bruins won seven of last nine games with Oregon State, but weird thing is, this is first time in last four meetings here they’ve been favored over State (dogs covered nine of last 12 series games, four of six here). Beavers are usually slow starters, but they upset Wisconsin 10-7 at home two weeks ago, in their only game so far this year (opener was ppd, had bye last week). Since 2004, Bruins are 19-10 vs spread as home favorites; since ’06, Oregon State is 15-9 as road underdog. OSU had soph QB with 12 career starts; entire OL is juniors/seniors.
USC’s national title hopes took huge hit last week with loss at Stanford, when they ran ball for only 29 yards (had only 81 rushing yards vs Hawai’i). Trojans won last eight games with Cal, covering six of last seven; they won last three played here by average score of 29-9. Cal lost winnable 35-28 game at Ohio State last week, victimized by a lousy kicker; they’ve allowed 31+ points in all three games, including 50-31 win over I-AA Southern Utah. Bears are 5-3 vs spread in last nine games as road dog- they’ve got senior QB with 27 career starts (most at Buffalo of MAC) and OL that starts three seniors, two freshmen. Since 2003, USC is 11-6 vs spread in game following a loss.
Auburn won national title with Cam Newton two years ago; since then, they’re 9-7, 1-2 this year, with only win in OT over UL-Monroe in game where total yardage was 418-410. If ULM runs ball for 165 yards vs Auburn (Clemson had 320), what will Bayou Bengals do? Over last decade, War Eagles are 7-3 as home underdog, 4-1 under Chizik, but they’ve completed just 34-67 passes this year with soph Frazier under center. They’ll need better balance to come close to pulling upset. First road game for LSU QB Mettenberger, who will rely on OL with four returning starters; Tigers ran ball for average for 268 yards/game in first three wins. Miles covered his last five tries as a road favorite. Six of last eight series games were decided by 7 or less points.
Georgia Tech relentlessly runs its option offense, so if you can’t stop the run, you’re dead; Miami allowed 32-52 points in two away games vs I-A opponents this year, giving up 542-518 TY, allowing 308 rushing yards at K-State, then 222 vs I-AA Bethune-Cookman last week. Hurricanes are 4-2 as road underdogs under Golden; they’ve pounded Tech last three years, 33-17/35-10/33-17, but were favored in all three games, in series where favored covered seven of last nine meetings. Tech is 10-8-1 as home favorite under Johnson; they’ve got senior QB with 20 career starts- their OL starts four juniors and a senior. Conference favorites are 8-7 vs spread this young season.
Mizzou-South Carolina last met in lower-level bowl seven years ago. Missouri is in Columbia, South Carolina is too, just two different Columbias. Both teams have QB injury issues; Gamecocks’ Shaw has bum shoulder—his replacement Thompson looked more than competent in big win last week. Mizzou QB Franklin declined painkilling shot last week, so he didn’t play; not sure if/how that affects team morale/chemistry. RS freshman Berkstresser beat Arizona State 24-20 in his first start, but completed just 21-41 passes, and isn’t nearly as mobile as Franklin. Since 2003, Mizzou is 10-7 vs spread as road underdog. Gamecocks covered seven of last ten as a home favorite.
Over last 14 years, Notre Dame has been favored to beat Michigan four times; they lost all four SU (all were in last six years). Underdog is whopping 14-2 in last 16 series games, with Michigan winning last three meetings, all by exactly 4 points, despite allowing average of 512.7 TY in those games. Wolverines are just 4-8 as road underdogs since Lloyd Carr retired; they’ve got mobile senior QB making 31st career start and three starters back on OL. Irish off to solid 3-0 start but scored only 20 points in beating Purdue/Mich State last two weeks. ND completed only 14-32 passes last week. Kelly has option to go to better passer Rees, if things get dicey. Since 2004, Irish are 12-24-1 as home favorites.
Minnesota’s mobile senior QB Gray (used to be WR), is out hurt (ankle), so soph Shortell (2 starts LY) is playing and doing OK (15-23 with four TDs); Gophers are 3-0, winning at UNLV in OT and beating Western Michigan by 5, hardly stellar feats, but wins nonetheless. Minnesota is just 6-11 as home favorites since Glen Mason left town after ’06 season, but Coach Kill has won at lower levels (So. Illinois/No. Illinois) and is making progress here. Syracuse allowed 42 points each in losses to Northwestern/USC, then struggled to beat I-AA Stony Brook 28-17 last week. Orange has senior QB who has improved a lot- they’re 5-7 as road dog under Marrone. Big East non-conference underdogs are 4-0-1 vs spread this year.
Over last five years, Kansas State is 13-3 vs spread as road underdog, covering last six such games; mobile senior QB Klein (started 2 games at WR couple years ago) has completed 73% of passes this, 25-32 vs Miami/North Texas, their I-A foes, but K-State has been hammered by Oklahoma of late, losing last five meetings by average of 22 points (56-17 LY). Hard to tell much about Oklahoma yet this year; they struggled at UTEP in opener (was 7-7 at half) before they won 24-7, then beat I-AA opponent after that, before last week’s bye. Sooners have terrific senior QB Jones (39 career starts); since 2006, they’re 23-11-1 vs spread as a home favorite. Was OU holding back before their conference opener?
Utah split pair of in-state rivalry games last two weeks, edging BYU in wild finish last week, after rare loss to Utah State the week before; over last decade, Utes are 13-8 vs spread as road underdogs (9-8 under Willingham). Utah lost its #1 QB (shoulder/quit football) so they’re using stopgap guy while trying to work more mobile sub in to play in running situations. Utah is 11-16 vs spread in last 27 games that followed a win. Arizona State (-3) went to Utah and waxed Utes 35-14 LY, thanks to + 5 turnover ratio. Young ASU lost 7 starters on both side of ball; they’re playing two QBs and coming off first loss (24-20 @ Missouri team playing without its #1 QB). Since ’07, Sun Devils are 15-11 as a home favorite.
Sun Belt teams are an impressive 13-5 vs spread in non-conference games this year, 2-2 as favorites, 0-2 at home; Western Kentucky upset in-state rival Kentucky last week, as Coach Taggart gradually upgrades his program- they were outgained 328-224 at Alabama the week before, not so bad- they’ve got senior QB making 34th career start and four returning starters on OL. WKU is 1-4 vs spread as a home favorite since moving to I-A. Southern Mississippi is 0-2 with 12 new starters and new coach; they outgained East Carolina by 96 yards last week, but -3 turnover ratio doomed them. C-USA teams are 9-15 vs spread out of conference this year, 4-7 as road underdogs.
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