Tennessee at Georgia
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
With its SEC East hopes on the line, Tennessee hits the road Saturday to take on unbeaten Georgia at Sanford Stadium in Athens.
As of Friday afternoon, most books were listing Georgia (4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) as a 14-point favorite with the total for ‘over/under’ wagers in the 58-59 range. The Volunteers are plus-450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).
Mark Richt’s team blasted Vanderbilt by a 48-3 count as a 14½-point home favorite last week. The Bulldogs were led by true freshman running back Todd Gurley, who rushed 16 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Keith Marshall also had a pair of touchdown scampers and finished with 82 rushing yards on 10 carries.
Junior quarterback Aaron Murray completed 18-of-24 passes for 250 yards and two TDs without an interception. Marlon Brown had five receptions for 114 yards and one TD against the Commodores.
UGA’s offense is averaging 47.5 points per game thanks to the stellar play of Murray, who has a 10/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The loss of Isaiah Crowell has turned into an addition-by-subtraction scenario, as Gurley has emerged as a force. Gurley has rushed for 406 yards and six touchdowns, averaging an eye-opening 9.2 yards per carry.
Prior to the win over Vandy, Georgia posted wins vs. Buffalo (45-23), at Missouri (41-20) and vs. FAU (56-20). The Bulldogs won their first two games without four defensive starters. In fact, they are going to be at full strength for the first time this year vs. UT.
All-SEC safety Bacarri Rambo and LB Alec Ogletree will make their season debuts after serving four-game suspensions.
Tennessee (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) has wins over N.C. St. (35-21), Ga. St. (51-13) and Akron (47-26), but the Vols let a second-half lead get away in a 37-20 loss to Florida as three-point home favorites in their SEC opener. They’ll be playing their first true road game of the year at UGA.
Junior QB Tyler Bray ranks third in the nation with an SEC-best 1,301 passing yards. He has connected on 63.5 percent of his passes with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio. Bray is tied with three others for the country’s lead in TD passes.
Tennessee has a pair of premier wide receivers in juniors Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson. Hunter is second in the SEC and sixth in the nation in receiving yards (410). Hunter, who tore his ACL in Week 3 at Florida last year, has 30 receptions and four TD grabs.
Patterson, a juco transfer, has 19 catches for 259 yards and two TDs. Patterson has also rushed for 102 yards and one TD on just five carries, and he’s second in the SEC in all-purpose yardage.
UT is led in rushing by junior RB Rajion Neal, who has 356 yards and three TDs with a 4.5 YPC average. Neal will face a UGA run defense led by All-American LB Jarvis Jones, who dominated in the win at Missouri with a spectacular performance. Jones is 10th in the SEC in tackles (24), third in sacks (4.5), second in tackles for losses (7.5) and second in forced fumbles (3). He also had a key interception in the win over the Tigers.
UGA owns a 9-5 spread record in its last 14 games as a home favorite since 2010. The Bulldogs have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings against UT, covering the spread the last two years. However, we should note that the Vols are 4-2 ATS in the last six encounters.
Dooley is winless in 11 career games against ranked opponents. UT is 2-4 ATS as a road underdog during Dooley’s three-year tenure.
The ‘over’ is 4-0 for UGA this year, 3-0 for the Vols.
When these teams met in Knoxville at Neyland Stadium last year, UGA captured a 20-12 win as a 2½-point road ‘chalk.’ Bray threw for 251 yards, while Murray had 227 passing yards. Neither QB had a TD pass or an interception.
CBS will have Saturday’s telecast from between the hedges at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
Betting totals with the four FCS newcomers
By Rob Veno
SportsMemo.com
With either three or four games under their belts and conference play either beginning or right around the corner, this seems like a good time to examine the four first-year FCS teams from a totals perspective.
Massachusetts – The Minutemen have been simply abysmal on each side of the ball. Their 263.3 total yards offense per game has resulted in an average of 8.8 points scored while the 492.8 yards they’ve allowed has produced 43.0 points per game for their opponents. The one noticeable thing about UMass statistically is that they don’t do anything well. The closing totals on their four games have ranged from 47-55 with two going over and two staying under. Except for a trip to Vanderbilt the last week of October, all Massachusetts games will be against MAC opponents. This team is scoring one point for every 30 yards gained and against two of the nation’s worst defenses (Indiana and Miami-Ohio) those ratios were 1/44.0 and 1/29.4 respectively. The inept offense seems to be a larger factor in their current total of 54 this week versus offensive power Ohio. If the oddsmakers keep UMass totals in this vicinity then my remaining season projection for this team is going to be toward the OVER. The offense was obviously set back by the loss of starting QB Kellen Pagel (has not played this season due to concussion) and freshman replacement Mike Wegzyn should get better with experience. The defense on the other hand has already had a couple injuries and figures to wear down in the league full of up-tempo offenses.
South Alabama – Having seen this team twice now, it’s evident to me that they are a pretty sound defensive team by Sun Belt standards. That being said, using those same game observations it’s apparent that they are far from dynamic on the offensive side. Five short field drives, four of which started inside their 30-yard line and one that started at midfield accounted for 27 of the 61 (44%) of the points scored against them by North Carolina State and Mississippi State. The Jaguars have been victimized by 12 turnovers in their first four games so they’ll need to shore that up, especially in their own territory. Their posted game totals have shown very little variance as all have been between 49 and 51 including this Saturday’s conference home opener against Troy. They’re 1-2 UNDER the total thus far with a non-totaled 9-3 victory over Nicholls State. There are six games on their remaining nine game schedule where the UNDER should be worth a look.
Texas State – Head coach Dennis Franchione’s team has piled up an average of 63 point per game thus far which suggests we play the OVER. However, caution has to be used with these Bobcats since their three opponents this season all played an up-tempo, pass happy, style. Now, they get Nevada’s high proficiency “pistol” offense this week and if heavy rains don’t hamper the Wolf Pack, Texas State could be involved in their third straight game where 68+ points are scored. If that occurs, the Bobcats’ baseline number would likely be in the area of 61-62 which would make it tough to gain an advantage. Texas State has shown a vulnerability to high octane offenses (especially passing) and their schedule is loaded with teams of that nature. Their ability to potentially score 28+ consistently in this WAC conference adds to the desire to label this as an OVER team but a wait-and-see situational approach is probably best.
Texas-San Antonio – I watched this team in their FCS debut at South Alabama and came away with a strong OVER opinion. Head coach Larry Coker has a dynamic quarterback in junior Eric Soza and other components that he uses in this one-back spread scheme. There have not been any totals opportunities with the Roadrunners since their opener because of three consecutive extra board opponents but they’re into their seven-game league slate now. With the WAC schedule comes a chance to capitalize since oddsmakers have to remain somewhat generic with them. In my estimation the Texas-San Antonio defense is a legitimate concern against these potent offenses they will face. They have allowed 12 drives of 49 yards or more this season against the weakest schedule of any FCS team. Expect UTSA games to provide lots of point scoring as their own offensive capabilities, combined with those of their opponents, lead to high scoring affairs.