Games to Watch - Week 6
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com
LSU at Florida
Two questions will be answered in this game. Is LSU really as bad as they have played so far this year and is Florida really as good? This is arguably the biggest game to date for Will Muschamp as the Gators head coach. LSU has won the last two meetings, 33-29 at Florida in 2010 and 41-11 at home last year, and Florida gets what appears to be an LSU team that is struggling in The Swamp. Last year LSU had more yards rushing (238) than Florida had total yards (213). This year it may come down to LSU QB Zach Mettenberger who has played poorly (even for LSU QB standards) against a Florida defense that has shown to be much tougher this year than anytime under Muschamp. The Florida defense ranks 10th in the country in points allowed and have faced two solid quarterbacks in Tyler Bray and Johnny Manziel to date. The Florida offense was also a big question coming into the year and RB Mike Gillislee has Florida in the top 20 in rushing with 225 yards a game. History however tells us that LSU steps up the most when the lights are the brightest under the Mad Hatter Les Miles as they are 31-14 against top 25 teams and 41-15 in SEC regular season games. LSU opens as a 3 point road favorite in this game as history and reputation supersede the short term success thus far this year for Muschamp and the Gators.
Georgia at South Carolina
Remember back in the day when the SEC used to play defense? Well, that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. Georgia comes in off a 51-44 win at home over Tennessee and these two teams put up almost 90 points last year when South Carolina went in-between the hedges in Athens and beat Georgia 45-42. Despite the loss, the Dawgs rebounded to win the SEC East before getting waxes by LSU in the SEC Championship. This year the loser might not have that chance however. South Carolina has won the last two meetings, although Georgia has never lost three in a row in this border rival. Not only do the two fan bases not particularly care for each other, as mentioned last week Steve Spurrier and the Georgia faithful simply do not like each other from his days at Florida. Georgia all but handed South Carolina the game last year giving up essentially four touchdowns on defense and a fake punt. But the man that sealed the deal was Marcus Lattimore and his fourth quarter performance. He will most likely be the difference maker this year as well if South Carolina wants to keep its SEC and National Championship hopes alive. However Georgia has the same aspirations and has won four of the last five in Columbia. South Carolina opens as a field goal favorite and the winner will definitely have the inside track to represent the SEC East in the Georgia Dome at the end of the year.
West Virginia at Texas
The schools' only previous meeting was also in Austin; however it was back in 1956 with WVU winning 7-6. I'm going out on a limb and making a very bold prediction; the 2012 version will be higher scoring than 7-6. Just remember you heard it here first. WVU QB Geno Smith is coming off a game where he threw for a mere 656 yards and 8 TDs in WVU's wild 70-63 win over Baylor. Texas is coming off an equally entertaining, yet "low scoring" 41-36 win against Oklahoma State Saturday night. The early line has Texas listed a touchdown favorite and they are still buying calculators to try and figure out the total in this game. Not surprising Smith and the Mountaineers rank first in the NCAA in passing with over 440 yards a game and third in points scored with 53 a game. Another big game by Smith may vault him to the top of the Heisman list just under the midway point of the season. Defensively…well they don't actually have a defense. Texas doesn't have the eye popping offensive stats that WVU has, however they have been very consistent both on the ground and with QB David Ash showing monumental improvements from last year. While the Texas defense at least shows a pulse they have also struggled this year giving up big plays to Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. This back and forth game will simply come down to which teams defense is able to make a stop or force the opposing offense into a turnover. This should be another entertaining game and the team with the ball last may come out victorious.
Southern California at Utah
Last week Stanford traveled to Washington on Thursday night and was upset 17-14. Could we see back to back PAC-12 Thursday night upsets? Last year when these two teams met in the Coliseum the Utes were lined up for a game-tying field goal in the final seconds but the Trojans not only blocked it but returned it for a touchdown to seal a 23-14 win. The loser will essentially be eliminated from the PAC-12 South division title. If that happens to be USC I'm sure Lane Kiffin's post game press conference will be extremely long and detail oriented.
Miami, Fl. at Notre Dame
This was a bitter rivalry back in the late 80's when Dr. Lou was still just a head coach at Notre Dame and the Miami Hurricanes still ran South Beach. This obviously doesn't quite have the feel or relevance of the old days but a win by ND will move them to 5-0 for the first time since the Internet started tracking those types of things. ND leads the all-time series 16-7-1, although ND's 33-17 win in the 2010 Sun Bowl is the teams' lone meeting since 1990.
Washington at Oregon
Can the Huskies pull off back to back top 10 upsets? Well no, as they are 24 point underdogs, but they will definitely get the Ducks attention as a result of their upset win over Stanford last week. The only real question in this game is whether the Oregon starters will have to play the entire four quarters. However it should be interesting to watch Washington QB Keith Price and their passing attack against the contrasting style of Oregon QB Marcus Mariota and their running attack.
Nebraska at Ohio State
I feel like I need to include a Big 10 game each week just in case people that like boring football read this article. After their painful to watch 17-16 "classic" win Saturday night, new Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer said something along the lines of, well, that is just a classic Big 10 football game right there. Exactly Urban…no thanks. Ohio State blew a 21-point lead in last year's 34-27 loss at Lincoln, so the Buckeyes will be looking for revenge at home under the lights.
CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Longhorns
The Mountaineers (4-0, 1-3 ATS) winning its Big 12 Conference debut against Baylor (70-63) amassing a school-record 807 yards with Geno Smith crafting arguably the most prolific passing performance in major college football history chucking 656 passing yards 8 TD's face a huge test this week when they travel to Texas. West Virginia racks up a whopping 53.0 points/game on 441.5 passing, 157 rushing yards/game but it's suspect defense getting shredded for 700 yards by Baylor will need a top level performance come Saturday. Longhorns' air attack lead by Ash (1007.0 PYG 10TD) and ground crew spearheaded by RB's Bergeron (255 RYG, 5 TD), Brown (238 RYG, 3 TD) could do serious damage. And, Longhorns' are by far the best defense (390.2 yds, 21.0 PPG) Smith has faced this season. Mountaineers on a 7-2 ATS road stretch, 6-1 ATS streak as underdogs have been pegged 7-point dogs vs a Longhorn squad just 7-12-1 ATS it's last twenty at home.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 2-3 ATS) grabbing a gritty win on the road at Michigan State on the weekend to remain undefeated return to Columbus to host Huskers (4-1, 3-2 ATS) off a 30-27 victory over Badgers. The Buckeyes cannot play in the Big Ten championship game but you can bet coach Urban Meyer will still have the squad primed during conference play. He won't need much motivation here, Buckeyes blowing a 21-point lead in last years 34-27 loss in Lincoln should already be in pay-back mode. The betting market has Buckeyes 4.5 point favorites a number they can handle as they're on a 9-2-1 ATS stretch laying six or less points, 8-2 streak at home in October and 5-2 ATS run in Big-Ten home openers.
Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks
Huskies off a huge upset of Stanford aren't being given much of a chance vs the Ducks as they are a whopping 24-point underdog. No upset this week for Washington, they've lost eight straight vs Ducks (0-7-1 ATS). The only real question in this game is whether Huskies can keep it close enough to cover. Being on a 3-6-1 ATS skid taking 15 or more points, 0-5 ATS slide on the road it's a dicey situation. But, another disciplined effort on the defensive end as shown vs Stanford limiting Cardinal to 65 rushing yards and just 235 total yards the Huskies can give Ducks a run for the money. Trends of interest: Huskies are on a 10-4 ATS stretch vs Pac-12 opponents, Ducks are on a 1-6-1 ATS skid laying 15 or more points, 1-5-2 ATS slide at home vs the conference.
Week 6 Early Line Moves Report
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com
Virginia at Duke
Duke opened -1, now -2, -2.5
The reason we want to mention this game is the health of Duke's starting QB Sean Renfree who has an elbow injury. There are countless market players that are speculating on this game like they did on several games last week – Western Michigan and Rice were potentially without their starting QBs and bettors were buying numbers before ESPN's Sports Center or Twitter knew about it. Buyer beware with Duke and Renfree who is having an MRI Tuesday, but I also believe that there are many sharp handicappers who are lining up just to bet against the inept Cavaliers. Agree with the line move.
Texas A&M at Mississippi
A&M opened -8.5, now -11 across the board
I talked to a few handicappers Sunday afternoon and we compared our College Football lines and power ratings and we all had A&M at -10.5 or higher. Sometimes the linesmakers have just not caught up to a team and will get steamrolled on one side. What is there not to like about A&M who has scored 48, 70 and 58 points respectively in their last three games and seem to be getting better on defense as the front seven has now recorded 16 sacks? This is all A&M money in my opinion.
Wyoming at Nevada
Nevada opened -14.5, now -16.5, total opened 64, now 67.5
Nevada does one thing extremely well and that's run the football. They rank fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game at 308.8. Wyoming does not stop the run particularly well surrendering 5.1 yards per carry. I have yet to see Wyoming play but we know that Nevada head coach Chris Ault is a bully at home and will run all day on you if you let him. The total moving up makes sense because what can Nevada do to slow down their offense, throw the football down field? Looks like a side and total over parlay by sharp players.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Oklahoma opened -7 now -4.5, -5
Power dogs in college football have fared well this season and market players are on the prowl to bet them early and often taking the best plus prices. Tech at +7 was a steal, a bad line, but I don't know anyone that was able to buy it. It was there for a second and all it takes is one limit bet and then another and the sportsbooks are forced to move fast on a key game on the schedule. Tech looks to be much improved on defense holding Iowa State to 189 total yards last week. The public opinion of Oklahoma has to be down with a loss at home to Kansas State. The Sooners’ bubble burst being no longer undefeated and a possible nation title run down the drain – at least that is the way I see it and so do many other handicappers, therefore smart bettors jumped on the underdog.
LSU at Florida
LSU opened -4, now -2.5
LSU, a power house SEC West team, has looked anything but due to their offense not piling up points especially against lesser foes and a poor 2-3 ATS record. LSU was trailing FCS Towson last week 9-7 (missed extra PAT) in the second quarter before the Bayou Bengals found some semblance of a passing game. Florida presents LSU with its toughest opposition to date and the Gators had last week off to prepare, so we know spot players took the +4 and also bought out all the +3's in the market as well.
Big Ten Conference Preview
By American Sports Analysts
ASAWins.com
Ohio State continues in ascension as one of the top teams in the league and will try to remain undefeated when the Huskers, off of a big win over Wisconsin, come to town. Meanwhile, Michigan is off of its bye week and will try to save some face after losing its two biggest games of the season thus far against Purdue, whom many expect to be a dark horse Big Ten title contender. ASA gives you all of the analysis and more!
Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Nebraska
OSU: Last week at Michigan State: W 17-16
UN: Last week vs. Wisconsin: W 30-27
The Buckeyes survived their first Big Ten road test in a win at Michigan State last weekend. Offensively Braxton Miller and the offense overcame three turnovers and managed 383 hard-earned total yards. But they were able to control the ball with 204 rush yards on 44 carries. The defense came up big against a stout MSU rush offense. The Bucks allowed just 34 yards on 22 carries (1.4 YPC) and dared QB Andrew Maxwell to beat them through the air – which he didn’t. Nebraska has a much more balanced offense here and the Buckeyes won’t be able to key on one aspect. The Huskers average 306 rush yards per game and 216 pass yards per game.
Nebraska looked abysmal in the first half, but came out on fire in the second half. The Huskers rallied from a 17-point third quarter deficit to beat the Badgers by three points. Nebraska allowed 236 yards and 20 first half points before holding Wisky to just 108 yards and seven points in the second. Offensively the Huskers were put the ball on the ground too many times as they fumbled six times, but were fortunate to only lose two. They put up 440 yards of total offense, 259 that came on four consecutive drives in the 2nd half that resulted in 20 straight points.
Neither team has faced a dual-threat quarterback like both defenses will face in Taylor Martinez and Braxton Miller. Last year Martinez rushed for 102 yards on 17 carries with one touchdown while Miller tallied 91 rush yards on 10 carries. The Huskers rallied from a 21-point deficit to win that game at home – much like they did last week against Wisconsin. Nebraska scored 28 second half points on their final six drives while OSU had four punts and two turnovers on its last six drives. OSU will be hungry for revenge here at home.
The Buckeyes are 27-4 SU & 21-10 ATS their last 31 Big Ten home games; though they were just 1-3 ATS last season. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS its last seven road games as an underdog, including 0-2 ATS in the Big Ten last season.
Injury report: The Buckeyes' RB Jordan Hall left in the first half of the Michigan State game with a knee injury. Urban Meyer said that Hall has a PCL tear in his right knee won’t play against Nebraska. A PCL tear is not as serious as an ACL or MCL tear, but it is an injury that could hold Hall out for more than one week.
Purdue (+3) vs. Michigan
PU: Last week vs. Marshall: W 51-41
UM: Last week: BYE
Purdue is 3-1 so far this season with a narrow loss to Notre Dame. Many experts peg the Boilers as a dark horse to contend for a Big Ten title. Offensively they’ve been extremely balanced and efficient. They are averaging 262 pass yards per game, 202 rush yards per game, and 42.5 points per game. Purdue’s 51-41 win over Marshall last week is a bit deceiving as the Boilers took a 42-14 lead into halftime. The Herd put up a few meaningless touchdowns on the board late.
The Wolverines are averaging 20.9 points per game on the road the past two seasons, compared with more than 40 at home. This year, Michigan has scored just 20 total points in its two games away from Ann Arbor (albeit against outstanding defenses in Alabama and Notre Dame). Michigan lost both of those road games and the Wolves will try to reverse their road jinx here at Purdue. They had a bye week after the disaster against Notre Dame, where they scored just six points and QB Robinson threw four interceptions. Robinson has been shaky all season. He’s completing less than 55% of his passes with six touchdowns and eight interceptions. Defensively Michigan will have its hands full this weekend, and this unit has been vulnerable. Teams have been able to run at will against Michigan, averaging 182 yards per game (UM ranks 90th against the run).
The Boilers allowed 535 total yards in a 36-14 loss last year in Ann Arbor. The Wolves rushed for 339 yards and four scores. Michigan is 1-3 ATS its last four against Purdue and 1-3 ATS its last four visiting Purdue. The Wolverines are also just 2-6 ATS as a Big Ten road favorite. Purdue is 3-1 ATS its last four as a home ‘dog against Big Ten foes.
Injury report: The bye week appears to have worked well for the Wolverines' health. Head coach Brady Hoke said starters DE Brennen Beyer, WR Devin Gardner, FB Stephen Hopkins, OG Ricky Barnum are all healthy and ready to play this week. The one guy who's not quite back is starting TE Brandon Moore, who hasn't played since suffering a leg injury in the opener versus Alabama.
Penn State (-3) vs. Northwestern
PSU: Last week at Illinois: W 35-7
NU: Last week vs. Indiana: W 44-29
Northwestern takes to the road for the first time since a September 1st trip to Syracuse. They improved to 5-0 last week in a big win over Indiana. Do-it-all “quarterback” Kain Colter is becoming one of the top playmakers in the Big Ten after he rushed for 161 yards and four scores and caught nine balls for 131 yards. The Wildcats could go a long way to prove their Big Ten legitimacy with a road win at Penn State. Northwestern has lost five straight times to Penn State and is seeking just its second-ever win in State College.
The Nittany Lions have won three straight and are playing at a high level defensively. They haven’t allowed more than 24 points in a game this season and they haven’t allowed more than 13 the past three weeks. They’ll face their toughest test of the season against Northwestern’s spread attack which averages 256 yards per game behind Kain Colter and Venric Mark. QB Matt McGloin continues to perform well in the new offense. McGloin is averaging 253 yards per game (63% completions) with six touchdowns and one interception during PSU’s three game win-streak. He’ll have his shot against this Northwestern defense that has been vulnerable to strong passing attacks.
McGloin passed for 192 yards and two scores in the Nittany Lions’ 10-point win last season. Northwestern scored on four of its first five drives before being shutout in the final seven drives of the game. PSU is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS its last five vs. Northwestern, winning by an average of 15.8 points per game. Northwestern is 1-6 SU but 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to State College.
Wisconsin (-14.5) vs. Illinois
UW: Last week at Nebraska: L 27-30
UI: Last week vs. Penn State: L 7-35
Both teams are coming off Big Ten losses, so there will be no shortage of motivation here. Wisconsin has something to build off of at least, after taking an early 20-3 over Nebraska before falling late. RB Ball rushed for three touchdowns, but also fumbled late. Freshman QB Stave wasn’t spectacular in his first road start, and coach Bielema put in Danny O’Brien for the final drive. Wisky only totaled 295 yards on offense, but it was defensive inefficiencies that cost them the Nebraska game. The Badgers allowed 440 yards to the Huskers, including 259 on the ground (5.6 YPC average). They’ll get a chance to right the ship in a home game against a struggling Illini squad Saturday.
The Illini look like a mess right now and are searching for answers in all three phases – and answers are usually hard to come by in Camp Randall Stadium. The offense was supposed to be much more explosive under Tim Beckman’s spread attack. Instead, the team ranks 97th nationally in scoring at 22.6 points per game and 96th nationally in total offense. And that includes a stat-padding 44-0 victory over FCS Charleston Southern. The defense was supposed to be elite. But this unit has given up 45, 52, and 35 points its last three games against FBS opponents.
Wisconsin has won six of the last seven meetings against Illinois, but the Illini are 4-1 ATS over the last five meetings. The Illini haven’t traveled to Camp Randall since 2008, but they’ve dropped three straight there by an average of 11 points per game. Illinois is 6-1 ATS its last seven as a double-digit underdog against conference foes.
Indiana (+15.5) vs. Michigan State
IU: Last week vs. Northwestern: W 29-44
MSU: Last week vs. Ohio State: L 16-17
Michigan State is off of a close home loss to Ohio State. Despite a plus-3 turnover ratio, the Spartans couldn’t capitalize on offense. They rank 80th in yards per game and 112th in points per game. QB Maxwell and his receiving corps have yet to inspire any confidence that this offense can move the ball consistently through the air. Through five games Maxwell is completing just 55.7% of his passes with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Luckily they get a shot at one of the nation’s worst defenses in Indiana this week. The Hoosiers rank 106th against the run, 95th in yards allowed, and 72nd in points allowed (IU allowed an astonishing 704 yards against Northwestern last week).
The Hoosiers have had no problem putting points on the scoreboard. Through four games they are averaging over 500 yards per game and 34.2 points per game. However, those strong numbers are based on one game against an FCS opponent, and three others against defenses ranked 116th, 111th, and 59th. They’ll have a much more difficult time against this MSU defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season.
Michigan State is 7-1 SU & ATS in its last eight games against Indiana (average score of 41-20). The Hoosiers are 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as a home underdog of two touchdowns or more. Michigan State hasn’t been a two-touchdown or more road favorite in the Big Ten since 1999.
Iowa – BYE
UI: Last week vs. Minnesota: W 31-13
The Hawkeyes “brought home the bacon” in last week’s rivalry win over Minnesota. Offensively the Hawks got another strong performance from walk-on RB Mark Weisman, who now has now rushed for 507 yards (7.0 YPC) and seven touchdowns the last three games. After a solid junior campaign when he threw for 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions; senior QB Vandenberg can’t seem to get on track this season. He’s completing less than 59% of his passes with just two touchdowns and two interceptions. All in all, it was a key win for Iowa as it now has some momentum heading into its bye week to prepare for its first big conference road test at Michigan State next Saturday.
Minnesota – BYE
UM: Last week at Iowa: L 13-31
Minnesota’s early season hot streak came to a screeching halt in a loss to Iowa last week. The good news is that it was the first blemish on the Gophers’ schedule. The bad news is that Iowa really exposed some weaknesses. QB Max Shortell struggled under center, throwing for just 197 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. As coach Jerry Kill said Sunday, the Gophers really need top quarterback MarQueis Gray to get healthy. Also unsettling was the play of Minnesota's defense, which couldn't stop Weisman. The Gophers can regroup during the bye week before their league home opener against Northwestern.
College Football Betting Preview: Nebraska at Ohio St
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Nebraska at Ohio State
Rob Veno’s Recommendation: Ohio State
Saturday, 5 pm PT – ABC
CRIS Opener: Ohio State -4 O/U 53.5
CRIS Current: Ohio State -3 (-115) O/U 58
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Ohio State -4.5
Each of these teams narrowly escaped with a victory last week despite holding enormous rush yardage advantages over their opponents. Despite winning records through five games, neither has been overly impressive against the pointspread as Nebraska (3-2 ATS) has defeated the number by double-digits just once (home vs. FCS Idaho State) while Ohio State (2-3 ATS) has done exactly the same (home vs. Miami-Ohio). The opener of Ohio State -4 has been pushed down to -3 which somewhat disagrees with my power rating number of -4.5 but isn’t that significant. In fact, there’s not much significant separation between these teams results wise, statistically or in their fundamental style of play. What is noticeable is a pair of categories that each favors one side. For Nebraska, the advantage is pass defense. Ohio State’s has been picked on all season long allowing an average of 275.6 yards per game. California an QB Zac Maynard were able to have their best passing day of the season (288 yards) against this Buckeye defense. However, while plenty of media coverage is suggesting that Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez has improved his accuracy, a close examination of the numbers does not bear that out. Martinez has been out of this world against the likes of Arkansas State (92.9%), Southern Miss (76.5%) and Idaho State (66.7%) but he’s been mediocre against the better defenses of UCLA (17-of-31, 179 yards, 54.8%) & Wisconsin (17-of-29, 181 yards, 56.5%). The Huskers barely got away with the home win last week vs. Wisconsin but couldn’t get it done on the road against the Bruins. The interesting piece in those games is that Nebraska ran the ball at will in each which theoretically should’ve helped Martinez post better numbers. Can they run roughshod over Ohio State in Columbus?
Ohio State faces basically the same dilemma as their star QB Braxton Miller excels in the rushing game but still hasn’t proven to be consistent through the air. Can he complete a high percentage and enough meaningful passes against a Cornhusker defense that allows just 50.6% completions and 188 ypg? Miller has faced some pretty good pass defenses this season in Michigan State, Central Florida and California and his running ability will likely force the Nebraska pass rush to play a more contain style rather than disruptive pass rush. The Buckeyes opposing schedule to date is the most decisive edge they have over Nebraska and they could be the more battle tested team in this game. Home field nationally televised night game and revenge for last year’s complete fourth quarter disintegration are also strong motivational and emotional plusses for OSU.
A pair of mended injuries to Ohio State starters could prove beneficial here as RB Carlos Hyde made his return to the lineup last week and FS CJ Barnett now figures to return after missing the past two games. There’s been a four-point move in the total on this game which is now up to 58 and maybe this could turn into a high scoring affair like last year’s 34-27 thriller. I however don’t see much value in the total so I’ll take a very light stance with the Buckeyes -3. The reasoning is three pronged: 1.) Ohio State HC Urban Meyer over Nebraska HC Bo Pelini, 2.) Ohio State emotional and motivational assets and 3.) I would much rather play against Martinez on a very bright road stage.
College Football Betting Preview: Mississippi St at Kentucky
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
Mississippi State at Kentucky
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: Mississippi State
Saturday, 9:20 am PT - ESPN Game Plan
CRIS Opener: Mississippi State -10.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Mississippi State -10 O/U 46
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Mississippi State -10
Last week, I supported Kentucky as a +20.5 home underdog to South Carolina. I liked the spot with the Gamecocks beating the Wildcats by 51 the previous year and having a huge game against Georgia on deck. Part of the handicap worked as SC came out sluggish and UK actually led by 10 at the half. Unfortunately it woke South Carolina up and not only did they end up coming back to win, but somehow covered the +20.5 (38-17). The end result was a prime example that Kentucky doesn't stand much of a chance when asked to step up in class.
That is the situation this week as they play host to Mississippi State, but we are getting a significantly cheaper price. And unlike SC, who was in a bad spot (or at least not a favorable one), MSU comes in off of a bye week and is unlikely to take Kentucky lightly despite its recent struggles. The thing that stands out to me the most in the matchup is prior to last week's game against South Carolina, Kentucky quarterback Maxwell Smith – one of the team’s few offensive weapons – was slated to play. He got hurt in the first quarter, and the Cats were forced to go with Jalen Whitlow who proceeded to throw two interceptions. Whitlow, along with Patrick Towles, are expected to split time. Point being, Kentucky is obviously not as strong without Smith, yet here they are catching +10 whereas last week with Smith, they were +20.5. Mississippi State isn't on South Carolina's level, but the gap in my opinion isn't as much as this pointspread suggests. Lay the points.
College Football Betting Preview: Georgia at South Carolina
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Georgia at South Carolina
Brent Crow’s Recommendation: South Carolina
Saturday, 4 pm PT – ESPN
CRIS Opener: South Carolina -2.5 O/U 57
CRIS Current: South Carolina -1.5 O/U 55
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: South Carolina -1
Both teams come in off of wins last week, although neither club played up to its capabilities. Georgia’s defense was toasted for 44 points by Tennessee, but they came up with four turnovers, including three in the last six minutes to win 51-44. The Bulldogs got two All-America defenders back from suspensions in Alec Ogletree and Baccari Rambo, but they still allowed 478 yards to the Tennessee offense.
South Carolina’s defense had a rough first half against the Maxwell Smith-less Kentucky offense, and the Gamecocks had to rally from a 17-7 deficit to win, 38-17. For the game, SC again posted solid numbers, holding Kentucky to just 243 total yards. The Gamecocks have given up less than 300 yards of offense in four of their five games this season. However, none of their five opponents are in the same class offensively as Georgia, which has scored 41 points or more in all five of their games and has topped 485 yards in four of the five. Georgia’ offense will face its toughest defense of the season this week as well, so we should find out a lot about both teams.
South Carolina has won the past two meetings, including last year’s 45-42 shootout. This year’s matchup appears to be pretty even, and it will come down to whichever team makes the fewest mistakes. Georgia has been prone to mistakes at times this year, with nine turnovers already, including three in the win against Tennessee as well as two missed extra points. South Carolina seems to be more consistent on offense with quarterback Stephen Garcia having graduated and Connor Shaw and Dylan Thompson taking over the reins of Steve Spurrier’s offense. Look for the Gamecock to slip away with the win and cover.
College Football Betting Preview: Miami-Ohio at Cincinnati
By Otto Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati
Saturday, 4 pm PT – ESPN Gameplan
CRIS Opener: Cincinnati -20.5 O/U 55
CRIS Opener: Cincinnati -20.5 O/U 55
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Cincinnati -18
Here’s one rivalry game this weekend that likely won’t get much attention but perhaps some overwhelming trends will catch your eye. It’s the battle for the Victory Bell as the Miami RedHawks take on the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati is fresh off a win over Virginia Tech; a come-from-behind effort highlighted by a touchdown with less than 20 seconds remaining at FedEx Field. The win catapulted the Bearcats into the top 25 national rankings and upped their record to a perfect 3-0.
Miami is fresh off a last minute come from behind victory of its own, upending Akron in a wild shootout. West Virginia and Baylor may have garnered all the attention as their quarterbacks went off in record setting fashion last week but RedHawks quarterback Zac Dysert should get some mention here for a brilliant performance; his final line in the win read 34-of-49, 516 passing yards, six touchdowns and 14 carries for 108 yards!
So how does this one shape up? Perhaps not so pretty if you’re a Miami fan. The RedHawks have now given up at least 39 points to their three FBS foes (I’m not including first-year FBS member UMass) and rank dead last in the MAC in total defense. In their two “step up” games away from home Miami was outgained by 372 yards in a SU/ATS loss at Boise and 207 yards in a SU/ATS loss to Ohio State. And the head-to-head history in this series has been decidedly lopsided in recent years.
Cincinnati has won six consecutive meetings in this rivalry and they’ve covered in five of those wins. The only spread victory Miami pulled off was a 24-point loss in 2009 (+29). Cincinnati has won by an average final of 37.5 to 9.5 and has margins of victory (in reverse chronological order) of 27, 42, 24, 25, 37 and 14.
Coming into the season this looked like it could be Miami’s year. They brought back 16 starters while Cincinnati was in more of a rebuilding situation. But what we’ve seen on the field suggests the RedHawks might once again be on the wrong end of a blowout. And if recent history is repeated Cincinnati would conceivably cover this number.
ACC Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Well, I was 3-1 on my picks for the Atlantic Coast Conference last weekend, and the only loss was a late add-on. I took my son to the Idaho-North Carolina game, and it was a deluge overnight, during the morning and into the afternoon. I figured it would be a lower scoring game. Idaho held up their end of the bargain with a goose egg, but North Carolina scored their most points EVER, walloping the Vandals 66-0. That caused the over to cash midway through the fourth quarter. Oh well. Let's try for a goose egg in the loss column of the ACC picks this weekend.
Miami at Notre Dame
Ahh, if this were only the 1980's, this would be a game everyone wants to see. As it stands, it is the No. 10 team in the nation hosting a 4-1 Hurricanes team, so this game has become a little more attractive over the past couple of weeks. Miami thumped NC State last week at home, with QB Stephen Morris introducing himself to the nation with a school record 566 yards passing and five touchdowns. That's better than Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, etc. ever did. However, look for Morris to take a huge step backward against an Irish defense which has been voracious this season. Just ask Denard Robinson and Michigan. The Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their past five games at neutral site games, and this one will be played at Soldier Field in Chicago. Notre Dame already has a neutral site game under their belt, swatting Navy and covering over in Dublin, Ireland, to open the season. However, ND is 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record. If you're just dying to make a play for this game, the under might be the way to go. The under is 41-19 in Miami's past 60 non-conference games, while the under is 12-3 for ND against ACC opponents, and 6-1 in their past seven games overall.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina
We could call this one the Jekyll and Hyde Bowl, as we're not exactly sure which team will show up for which team. Starting with the Hokies, they looked good in dispatching Georgia Tech to open the season, but they inexplicably fell to Pittsburgh on the road Sept. 15, and again at Cincinnati last weekend. They're 3-0 SU at home, but 0-2 on the road. That has to change. Will it change Saturday? That's the big question. The Tar Heels smashed Idaho last week, as mentioned above, and have thumped home opponents to the tune of 155-6 in three games at Kenan Stadium. Methinks this one will be a little different, however, as the competition level is much better than that of Elon, East Carolina and Idaho. The Hokies are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 road games. In addition, VT is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference games, including 0-1 this season. UNC is 5-0 ATS in their past five home games, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games against teams with a winning record. However, the dog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and the road team has covered six straight times. The under might be the play here, as VT has gone under in four straight ACC games, and the under is 6-2 in their past eight overall. For UNC, the under has connected in five straight in this series, although the over has hit in four of their past five home games.
Florida State at North Carolina State
The Florida State express rolls into Raleigh looking to take claim another ACC victory, but most opponents know, especially at night, that Carter-Finley Stadium is a difficult place to play, especially under the lights. Just ask Clemson last season, as they were rolled by the Wolfpack in a late-season evening contest. Speaking of rolled, whatever happened to CB David Amerson for NC State? He entered the season with all kinds of fanfare and accolades, and was supposed to be the Darrelle Revis of the ACC. So far, he has looked more like former NFL DB Elvis Patterson, nicknamed Toast. Amerson was on the field for all five of those Morris TD throws in Miami. NC State is not playing well, but again, strange things happen in this series, especially in Raleigh. The Seminoles are just 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 meetings with the Wolfpack, and FSU is 0-4-1 ATS in the past five meetings at Carter-Finley. In addition, the dog is 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings in this series. Remember back in 1998, a 25-point underdog Wolfpack team with WR Torry Holt stunned a then-No. 2 ranked FSU team by a 24-7 score. Am I saying it will happen again? Well, I am not betting the moneyline and NC State, but this is a dangerous game for Florida State in their first true road test of the season.
Georgia Tech at Clemson
What happened to Georgia Tech? They looked pretty impressive, despite a loss, in their opening game at Virginia Tech. Then, they got it done at home against Presbyterian and Virginia. The latter was an impressive 56-20 win, which looked like the Yellow Jackets were back on track. However, they then blew a giant lead against Miami two weeks ago, slipping 42-36 in overtime. If that wasn't bad enough, they were upended by Middle Tennessee, a Sun Belt team which was tripped up by McNeese State earlier in the year. And it isn't bad enough Ga. Tech was beaten at home, but they were trucked 49-28. So what can we expect at 3:30 on Saturday? The Ramblin' Wreck is favored by 10.5. Will we get the team that stomped UVA, or the team which was completely listless against the Blue Raiders last week? It's hard to say, but I wouldn't touch Ga. Tech with a 10-foot pole. They're 4-9-1 ATS over their past 14 games, and Clemson looked awfully good dispatching BC on the road last week despite no WR Sammy Watkins (illness) out of the lineup. Officially, Watkins is listed as questionable this week.
Virginia at Duke
The Duke Blue Devils are 4-1. Let me repeat that, because they don't get to say that very often in Durham. The Duke Blue Devils are 4-1 AND they are 1-0 in the ACC standings, one of five teams in the 12-team league with an unblemished conference record. It's hard to believe, but Duke is legit. And Vegas is slowly starting to take notice, installing them as a one-point favorite over Virginia, a team they have historically struggled against. Heck, they have historically struggled against everybody. The facts are simple here. Duke is 3-0 at home, Virginia is 0-2 on the road. The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their past six home games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, while the Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning record. Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their past four overall against winning teams and 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven overall. And Duke has played UVA closely of late, while maybe not necessarily winning. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS in the past six showdowns at Wallace Wade Stadium. Can you pull the trigger? Well, now that you're all lathered up, and a believer in Duke, there is a big note of concern. QB Sean Renfree (elbow) is questionable, so it is a good idea to wait until the final health report on his status before submitting your play. Renfree is the engine that drives the offense, and a start by Anthony Boone wouldn't necessarily be terrible, but it wouldn't give me the same confidence Duke can win again.
Wake Forest at Maryland
Wake Forest has been a strange team this season, looking decent one week, and looking absolutely atrocious the next. It seems there are quite a few teams like that in the ACC this season, so be very careful. Maryland has been atrocious pretty much all of the time. It's hard to believe they hung with West Virginia the way they did, and I guess we can chalk that up to it being a rivalry of sorts. The Terrapins are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games, and 0-8 ATS in their past eight home games. The Deacs are 6-15 ATS in their past 21 road games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven games in the month of October. The favorite is 4-1 in the past five, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Wake Forest has struggled with Maryland, going 3-10 ATS in the past 13 meetings, including 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to College Park.
Boston College at Army
The Eagles have been a high-flying bunch, and at first glance BC is easily the play here. Boston College is 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, while Army is 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference games, including a loss at Wake Forest two weeks ago. However, digging deeper, we see that BC is just 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games against teams with a losing record. That's alarming, as perhaps the Eagles don't get up for games against poor teams. The Black Knights are 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games, so keep that in mind. Just to confuse you more, though, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six games. With all of these trends, both recent and historically, the best thing to do is stay away, or bet BC lightly.
19-0 ATS College Football Super System
By Robbie Gainous
Playbook.com
Last week our System of the Week recommended a play on the Penn State Nittany Lions plus the points over the Illini of Illinois and they came through easily winning straight up 35 to 7.
This week as we started working on the college card we noticed that one team on the board had held their last two opponents to less than eight points and this week they were facing a conference rival we wondered how this could impact the spread and its eventual outcome.
With this in mind, we queried the database and came up with a powerful system that has been perfect since 1985. Teams qualified under this system have posted a record of 19-0 both straight up and against the spread. The qualified team averages winning straight up by 16.7 points per game and averages covering the spread by 14.0 points per game.
SYSTEM: Play ON a home favorite of less than 5 points off allowing less than 8 points in each of its last 2 games (not 2 non-lined contests) vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU loss.
The most recent occurrence of this system happened last season on October 15 when Michigan State was installed as a -3 point favorite over Michigan. The Spartans won and covered defeating the Wolverines 28 to 14. We have to go back to October 16, 2008 to find the next qualified game and in that contest, TCU was favored by -1.5 points over BYU and proceeded to destroy them 32 to 7.
As evidenced by the qualified games the oddsmakers have not adjusted to this situation even though it dates to 1985. The Play ON team in this system continues to win and cover with ease and winner number 20 slated for Saturday October 6.
With all the system parameters met, this week's Cajun Sports Wire NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies a play ON the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over the Hokies of Virginia Tech.
College Football Betting Preview: LSU at Florida
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
LSU at Florida
Ian Cameron’s Recommendation: Under
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT – CBS
CRIS Opener: LSU -4 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current: LSU -3 O/U 42.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: LSU -7.5
LSU relies on a strong ground game (6.09 ypc according to our ACCU-Stats) with its trio of running backs, Spencer Ware, Kenny Hilliard and Michael Ford. On the flip side they’ve allowed a NCAA-best 2.58 ypc (ACCU-Stats). Those attributes are typically a recipe for success but I have some concerns about a group that simply hasn’t looked quite as dominant as their record suggests. LSU’s slate has been filled mostly with cupcakes. They failed to cover as 44-point favorites against North Texas (41-14), won and covered at home vs. Idaho and Washington, barely got past Auburn with a two-point, non-spread covering win, and didn’t sniff the money against Towson last week in a lethargic 38-22 victory. LSU allowed FCS Towson to notch four sacks on quarterback Zach Mettenberger. Was that due to being flat and looking ahead to this game or a sign of potential problems in pass protection? If it’s the latter, don’t expect LSU to come out throwing the football vs. Florida. There are still questions about Mettenberger who wasn’t particularly sharp (15-of-27, 169 yards) in the win at Auburn. As a result, I expect LSU’ offense to go the conservative route – something they are noted for doing when asked to step up in class. Look for the Tigers to employ a heavy run-oriented attack against the Gators which will keep the clock moving.
Florida has looked very impressive on both sides of the football. The Gators shook off a mediocre performance in Week 1 against Bowling Green and since then, beat a pair of SEC foes, Texas A&M and Tennessee on the road. The followed that by a dominant 38-0 shutout against Kentucky. No team has scored more than 20 points against Florida’s defense this season and that trend could very well continue this weekend. Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel has been steadily improving but this will be his first start against a truly elite SEC defense. Like LSU, I expect Florida to also operate a fairly conservative game plan considering LSU’s secondary is loaded with talent and has allowed only 4.2 yards per pass this season. Expect lots of running in between the tackles from Florida running back Mike Gillislee. Florida is already 3-1 to the UNDER this season and LSU saw both of its games against legitimate competition (Washington and Auburn) stay UNDER as well. We aren’t receiving any bargains with the total currently at 42.5 but I expect it to be a real “in the trenches” war resulting in a lower scoring game.
College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 6
By Covers.com
If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grabbed some quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 6 of the season:
(12) USC at Utah (14.5, 48)
USC QB Matt Barkley has thrown four interceptions in his last two games after being picked off just once in his first two contests. Remember, the senior tossed 39 touchdowns last season, while getting picked off just seven times. Utah expects to have junior DE Joe Kruger (2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles) and sophomore S Eric Rowe back from injuries as the defense looks to rebound after allowing 512 yards against Arizona State. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
Connecticut at (21) Rutgers (-7.5, 40.5)
Rutgers was the only team in the nation to win three road games in September. Now the No. 21 Scarlet Knights come home after a week off for four of the next five contests. Rutgers leads the nation in rushing yards against (62.5) and boasts RB Jawan Jamison, who is averaging 122.8 yards per game and can tie Ray Rice for the school record of five straight 100-yard games to start a season. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the schools.
(22) Northwestern at Penn State (-2.5, 48)
Northwestern will try for its first 6-0 start since 1962 when it visits Penn State on Saturday. The No. 22 Wildcats, who are 5-0 for the third time in five years, are coming off a school-record 704 yards of offense in their 44-29 victory over Indiana last week. Penn State has outscored its opponents 49-0 in the first quarter and 76-9 in the first half. The Nittany Lions have been outscored 59-47 after intermission.
Kansas at (8) Kansas State (-24, 52.5)
Kansas is 2-23 in conference play, has lost 17 straight road and neutral site games dating to September 2009 since the 2009 season. Kansas State is riding high two weeks after earning a signature victory over then-No. 6 Oklahoma – its highest-ranked road win to date. Senior QB Collin Klein is 15-4 (9-3 Big 12) as a starter. He has passed for five touchdowns and rushed for five more while completing 70 percent of his passes. The favorite is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
(25) Boise State at Southern Mississippi (10, 47)
Boise State nearly blew a 25-point lead last week, holding on for a 32-29 victory over New Mexico. The Broncos offense has accounted for only seven plays of 25 yards or more in their first four contests. The Golden Eagles have struggled mightily on offense, scoring only 17 points per game in losing their first four contests by an average of 17 points. The under is 4-0 in Southern Mississippi’s last four home games.
(19) Mississippi State at Kentucky (46, 10)
Quarterback Tyler Russell and the Bulldogs’ spread offense average 36 points per game, good for 35th in the nation, and will likely rely heavily on their rushing attack as they look to earn a fourth straight win over Kentucky. The Wildcats offensive' game plan is more clouded as starting quarterback Maxwell Smith is sidelined indefinitely with a torn ligament in his left ankle—an injury suffered in Kentucky’s 38-17 loss to South Carolina last week. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Arizona at (18) Stanford (-9, 54.5)
The Cardinal, who fell from No. 9 to No. 18 in the USA Today poll, have won 16 of their last 17 home games, and have followed their last six losses with victories dating to 2009. The Wildcats' have the No. 9 passing attack in the nation at 343.8 yards per game. Fifth-year senior QB Matt Scott leads the Pac-12 with 1,608 yards and has completed 64.1 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Stanford has won eight straight games in October.
Georgia Tech at (15) Clemson (-10.5, 75)
The Yellow Jackets have allowed 1,119 yards and 91 points in their last two games. The Tigers, bouncing back from a second-half collapse against Florida State, pulled away from Boston College for a 45-31 win last week. All-American receiver Sammy Watkins, who missed the game with an abdominal virus, is expected to return. Watkins has already missed three games this season. He didn't play in the first two after being suspended for an offseason drug arrest. The underdog is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
(3) LSU at (11) Florida (2.5, 42.5)
The Tigers are giving up 12.6 points per game, the Gators 12.8. LSU’s defense has 41 tackles for loss, including 11 sacks. The Gators’ stout defense could get a lift from the return of outside linebacker Jelani Jenkins, who had a pin removed from his fractured right thumb. Florida has not allowed a point in the fourth quarter and has outscored opponents 64-13 after halftime. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Iowa State at (13) TCU (-10, 43.5)
The Horned Frogs have allowed only three TDs and 29 points in their first four games while the Cyclones had a streak of 157 minutes, 40 seconds without allowing a touchdown come to an end late in the first half of last week's 24-13 loss to Texas Tech. The under is 4-0 in the Horned Frogs’ last four games overall and Iowa State has played under the total in six of their last seven conference games.
(14) Oklahoma State at (24) Texas Tech (5.5, 57.5)
The Sooners’ suddenly erratic offense faces a surprising Red Raiders’ defense ranked first in the nation in five categories, including passing yards and total yards allowed. Texas Tech is first in the country, allowing only 167.5 yards per game and a measly 3.1 yards per play. The home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Washington State at (17) Oregon State (-15.5, 58.5)
Oregon State, led by sophomore QB Sean Mannion, has the No. 4 passing offense in the nation and owns three quality victories - a pair of Pac-12 games on the road and against Wisconsin. The last two games in which Oregon State scored 40 or more points both came against Washington State, including a 44-21 victory last season in Seattle when Mannion threw four touchdown passes. The Cougars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
(7) West Virginia at (9) Texas (-7, 75)
West Virginia QB Geno Smith put himself in the Heisman driver’s seat by passing for 656 yards and eight touchdowns against Baylor last week. Smith is off to one of the best starts in NCAA history, passing for 1,748 yards and 20 touchdowns with no interceptions. The senior leads the nation in passing efficiency at 208.4 and has completed an astounding 83 percent of his passes. The over is 4-0 in West Virginia’s last four October games.
Miami (Ohio) at (23) Cincinnati (-18.5, 59)
The Bearcats and RedHawks have the fifth-longest rivalry in the nation going as Saturday marks the 117th meeting. Cincinnati has dominated in recent years, winning six straight by an average margin of more than 28 points. The Bearcats have won the last two meetings by a combined 72-3, including 27-0 last year. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
(5) Georgia at (6) South Carolina (0, 54)
Georgia will try to thwart the four-man rush of South Carolina, which leads the SEC with 22 sacks - six more than second-place Texas A&M. Bulldogs junior QB Aaron Murray has collected 12 touchdowns against three interceptions, but he'll be without top target Michael Bennett. The team's leading receiver suffered an ACL injury during Tuesday's practice and will be sidelined for the season. The under is 13-2 in their last 15 meetings.
Miami at (10) Notre Dame (-12.5, 51.5)
The Fighting Irish had a bye week to soak up the fact they're off to their best start since 2002. They held their second straight ranked opponent out of the end zone in a 13-6 victory over then-No. 17 Michigan last game, seven days after a dominating 20-3 road victory over then-No. 10 Michigan State. The Notre Dame defense has taken a big step forward this season, ranking ninth in the nation in sacks (3.5 per game) and pass efficiency defense (96.79). With eight INTs, the Irish defense has already matched its season total from 2011. The under is 6-1 in Notre Dame’s last seven games overall.
(20) Nebraska at Ohio State (-3, 57.5)
The 20th-ranked Cornhuskers own the nation’s fifth-best rushing attack at 305 yards per game and average 6.4 yards per carry. Ohio State senior RB Jordan Hall is doubtful after suffering a knee injury against the Spartans. Carlos Hyde, who missed two games earlier this season with a knee injury, will be counted on to pick up the slack. The Cornhuskers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games.
(4) FSU at North Carolina State (14.5, 56)
Florida State's stop unit could get tested Saturday as North Carolina State gained a school-record 674 yards in last week's 44-37 loss at Miami. The Seminoles are averaging 51.0 points per game while allowing only 11.4, which ranks seventh nationally in the FBS. Florida State is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with North Carolina State.
Washington at (2) Oregon (-24, 65.5)
Oregon seeks its ninth consecutive victory over visiting Washington when the two Pac-12 squads meet on Saturday. The No. 2 Ducks have won each of the previous eight meetings by 17 or more points while establishing themselves as the power school of the Pacific Northwest. Oregon has also won 27 of its last 28 home games and is averaging 52.4 points and 550.6 yards per game this season. The Huskies are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Florida State at North Carolina State
The North Carolina State Wolfpack thumped 34-0 by FSU last season will be looking for redemption Saturday when Florida State pays a visit. It won't be easy for North Carolina State. Despite the Pack coming off its best game of the year, burning Miami for 664 yards and five trips to the end zone the Seminoles have the ACC's best defense and are ranked among the nation's best allowing 11.4 points/game on 200.8 total yards split between 128.4 passing, 72.4 rushing yards/game. If that were not enough, Wolfpack are 100th against the pass at 278.6 yards/game which could spell trouble against FSU's QB E.J. Manuel (1147 PY, 9 TD's) who torched them for 321 yards two majors in last season's victory. No likely upset in the making, however Noles are in dangerous betting territory. FSU is just 2-9 ATS last eleven vs Wolfpack including 1-4 ATS last five visits to Raleigh, North Carolina.
Pac-12 Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
For the second consecutive week in the Pac-12, we have just four scheduled games Saturday, with Arizona State and Colorado resting their bumps and bruises. Southern California hit the road for Rice-Eccles Thursday night, and came away with a 38-28 win at Utah. The Utes pulled off a late backdoor fourth quarter cover, so hopefully you weren't burnt by that. If so, my condolences. Utah has burnt me a couple of times this season, so I shied away from making a selecting in that game, opting for a Sun Belt play instead.
Washington at Oregon
After Washington's stunning 17-13 upset of Stanford in their last game Sept. 27, the Huskies find themselves in the Top 25. Remember, though, that before the victory over the Cardinal, this is a team which barely slid by San Diego State in their opener, before being clobbered 41-3 on the road at LSU. Sure, they smoked Portland State Sept. 15, but don't put too much credence into a pounding of a FCS team. Now, they get a crack at a heavyweight, and this one could turn ugly. Huskies RB Bishop Sankey came up big against Stanford, rolling for 144 yards and a TD. He has acclimated to a starting role well after Jesse Callier (knee) went down to a torn ACL in the opener. The Ducks can score early and often, but they've been far from impressive against the spread. They are just 1-4 ATS this season, that lone cover coming in a 49-0 pasting of Arizona at home. The other games Oregon had well in hand, but they took their foot off the gas peddle, allowing second half covers. Last season, the Ducks barely covered a 16.5-point number in Seattle, winning 34-17. Washington is 0-5 ATS in their past five road games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning record. However, the Ducks are just 2-6-2 ATS in their past 10 home games, and 1-3-1 ATS in their past five Pac-12 battles. The big numbers, though, are that the favorite is 10-1-1 ATS in their past 12 meetings in this border war, and the Huskies are 0-7-1 ATS in their past eight meetings with Oregon, and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Eugene.
UCLA at California
The Bruins are 2-0 on the road this season, and the public is ALL OVER them. Cal is 1-4 SU and ATS, winning at home against Southern Utah, and covering at Ohio State Sept. 15. The Bears haven't been terrible, however, hanging with USC in the Coliseum two weeks ago in a 27-9 setback. Cal has shown some spurts of brilliance, but they'll need to contain RB Johnathan Franklin and the UCLA running game if they're to keep the Bruins within their sights. Now, UCLA hasn't won in Berkeley since 1998, and they have been outscored 222-129 during that span. But this is a different UCLA, and a different Cal, right? The Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their past five games, while we mentioned Cal's woes. In this series, however, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, while the Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Cal. UCLA 'should' be able to tame the Bears, and you should be able to get a number of less than three. If so, the Bruins are well worth the risk. They are the better team, but Cal does have history on its side.
Arizona at Stanford
It's a noon time kick (local time) at Palo Alto, as the Cardinal look to pick themselves off the mat after a stunning upset at Washington last time out. They'll face a Wildcats team that is 0-1 in their only road game this season, getting rolled 49-0 at Oregon two weeks ago. The Wildcats are 2-3 ATS this season, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road games. Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games, and 22-8 ATS in their past 30 games at home. In addition, Stanford is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against Arizona. It appears that Stanford is the play. The trends on the over/under are a little less clear. The over is 12-5 in Arizona's past 17 conference games, and 9-4 overall. For Stanford, the under is 27-13 in their past 40 games in the month of October. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series in Palo Alto, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall. The total screams stay away.
Washington State at Oregon State
All Oregon State does is win, win, win, no matter what. And they cover, too. Not only are the Beavs 3-0 SU this season, but they are 3-0 ATS. They return to Corvallis to play just their second game of the season at Reser Stadium, and the place should be rocking. Washington State comes to town, and they'll be looking for their first win since Sept. 14 at UNLV. The Cougs lost 51-26 against Oregon last time out, but at least they covered. However, that was their first cover of the year (1-3-1) this season. Washington State is 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road games. Oregon State, meanwhile, is 3-0-1 ATS in their past four games against Pac-12 opponents, and 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games overall. The over has cashed in three straight WaZu games, and is 4-1 in their past five conference games overall. The over is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings between these sides. Lastly, Washington State is 2-10 ATS in their past 12 meetings with Oregon State, but the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
LSU at Florida: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
LSU at Florida (2.5, 42)
When No. 11 Florida hosts No. 3 LSU on Saturday – the ninth straight time both teams are ranked entering the game – points will be at a premium. The Tigers are giving up 12.6 points per game, the Gators 12.8. Florida was off last week while LSU turned in an uninspiring performance, beating FCS foe Towson 38-22 at home. Florida leads the all-time series 30-25-3, but LSU has won the last two meetings, including 41-11 in Baton Rouge last year. This game features first-year starting quarterbacks in Florida's Jeff Driskel and LSU's Zach Mettenberger. Driskel has been far more efficient thus far.
LINE: LSU -2.5, O/U 42)
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-80s with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the north.
ABOUT LSU (5-0, 1-0 SEC West): The Tigers fumbled five times, losing three, in the win over Towson. They shockingly gave up 188 rushing yards to an FCS school and allowed the junior Mettenberger to be sacked four times. Coaches have been shuffling the offensive line ever since left tackle Chris Faulk went down with a knee injury after the first game. Wide receiver Odell Beckham was a bright spot Saturday, catching five balls for 128 yards and two touchdowns. LSU’s defense continues to get great penetration. The unit has 41 tackles for loss, including 11 sacks. Defensive end Sam Montgomery has 6.5 tackles for loss, while defensive tackle Anthony Johnson and linebacker Kevin Minter have 5.5 apiece.
ABOUT FLORIDA (4-0, 3-0 SEC East): Senior running back Mike Gillislee has run for 402 yards and five touchdowns, both second-best in the SEC. The sophomore Driskel has thrown for four touchdowns and run for another while throwing one interception, posting a 158.0 rating. The already stout defense could get a lift from the return of outside linebacker Jelani Jenkins, who had a pin removed from his fractured right thumb. Florida has not allowed a point in the fourth quarter and has outscored opponents 64-13 after halftime. The Gators are allowing 4.82 yards per pass attempt, which ranks fifth nationally.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Since 1990, the Gators are 24-10 at home against SEC West teams.
2. LSU won 33-29 in its last visit to The Swamp when the Tigers pulled off a fake field goal in the fourth quarter to extend the game-winning drive.
3. The Gators have gone 1-7 in October the past two seasons, seeing hot starts fade when the schedule gets tougher.