West Virginia at Texas: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
West Virginia at Texas (-7, 73.5)
West Virginia put up historic numbers in its Big 12 opener last weekend - both offensively and defensively. The seventh-ranked Mountaineers will face a slightly stiffer defensive challenge this week when they travel to No. 9 Texas on Saturday night. West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith put himself in the Heisman driver’s seat by passing for 656 yards and eight touchdowns against Baylor last week, but needed every score in the 70-63 victory. Longhorns quarterback David Ash has been nearly as impressive as Smith and was in a similar spot during a 41-36 win over Oklahoma State last week. Both defenses are sure to be tested again Saturday, and both have had a tendency to give up big plays. The Mountaineers can point a finger at the secondary while Texas has struggled with missed tackles.
LINE: Texas -7, O/U 73.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Winds will be out of the north at 13 mph.
ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (4-0, 1-0 Big 12): Smith is off to one of the best starts in NCAA history, passing for 1,748 yards and 20 touchdowns with no interceptions. The senior leads the nation in passing efficiency at 208.4 and has completed an astounding 83 percent of his passes in coach Dana Holgorsen’s offense. But while the Mountaineers lead the nation in passing yards and rank third in scoring offense, they are 96th in points against, surrendering an average of 32.5. Holgorsen was quick to praise his front seven at a Tuesday press conference while acknowledging that the secondary is young and inexperienced, which has led to some big plays and third-down conversions. The biggest assist to the defense has been Smith and the offense, which has turned the ball over only once in four games - tied for the best in the nation.
ABOUT TEXAS (4-0, 1-0): The Longhorns played an offense similar to West Virginia’s last week against Oklahoma State and barely escaped. The Big 12 issued an apology to the Cowboys on Wednesday, admitting to a botched call that led to Texas’ final touchdown. The ending and the defensive lapses did not overshadow the efforts of Ash, who has taken over control of the quarterback position and ranks second in the nation behind Smith in quarterback rating. The sophomore has completed more than 80 percent of his passes in the last two games and has thrown only one interception this season. Ash will be without running back Malcolm Brown (ankle) on Saturday, leaving Joe Bergeron a larger role in the backfield. The defense is a concern, as coach Mack Brown highlighted 12 missed tackles from the Oklahoma State game, with three of those leading to a pair of touchdowns and 109 total yards.
TRENDS:
* Longhorns are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Mountaineers’ last four October games.
* Over is 6-1 in Longhorns’ last seven games following an ATS win.
* Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Texas is 1-4 in its last five games against top-10 opponents.
2. The schools have met only once previously, with West Virginia capturing a 7-6 victory in Austin on Oct. 6, 1956.
3. The Longhorns have won 58 straight games when winning the turnover battle.
SEC Showdowns
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
On a Saturday filled with intriguing games, we’ve chosen to highlight a pair of SEC showdowns that will go a long way towards determining who makes it to the Georgia Dome on the first weekend of December.
Let’s start in Gainesville, where Florida (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) will take on LSU at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS. As of Friday afternoon, most books were listing the Tigers as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 42. Gamblers can take the Gators on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
Will Muschamp’s team has wins vs. Bowling Green (27-14), at Texas A&M (20-17), at Tennessee (37-20) and vs. Kentucky (38-0). Florida has the benefit of two weeks to prepare following last week’s open date.
We knew Florida was going to have a stout defense this season. The major concern coming into Muschamp’s second year was the offense, particularly the quarterback position. Muschamp made the decision to name sophomore Jeff Driskel as the starter going into the Week 2 game in College Station.
The right choice was made. Driskel has completed 55-of-79 passes (69.6%) for 698 yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also an excellent scrambler, as evidenced by 148 rushing yards and one TD.
Florida senior running back Mike Gillislee is second in the SEC in rushing yards (402). He has run for five touchdowns and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
Florida junior linebacker Jelani Jenkins, a three-year starter, is set to return for the first time since breaking his thumb in the first half of the win at Texas A&M. CB Cody Riggs remains ‘out’ with a broken foot.
LSU (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) began the season in the top slot of my Power Rankings but it has dropped to No. 3 due to a few lackluster performances. The Tigers have wins vs. North Texas (41-14), vs. Washington (41-3) vs. Idaho (63-14), at Auburn (12-10) and vs. Towson (38-22).
LSU is four-deep at the tailback position, but Kenny Hilliard has emerged as the go-to guy. Hilliard, the nephew of LSU great Dalton Hilliard, has rushed for a team-high 366 yards and six touchdowns on 53 carries. He’s averaging 6.9 YPC.
Zack Mettenberger is completing 65.5 percent of his throws for 1,014 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. Odell Beckham Jr. has been Mettenberger’s favorite target, hauling in 16 receptions for 286 yards and two TDs.
Florida hasn’t covered the spread as a home underdog since its 32-29 win over FSU as a six-point home ‘dog in 1997. Since then, the Gators are 0-4 ATS when catching points at home.
During Les Miles’s eight-year tenure, LSU has compiled a 12-8-2 spread record in 22 games as a road favorite.
When these teams met last season in Baton Rouge, UF had to go with true freshman Jacoby Brissett as its starting quarterback. Brissett had never before taken a snap at the collegiate level. LSU predictably cruised to a 41-11 win as a 13 ½-point home favorite.
The Tigers are looking for their third straight win over the Gators, who lost a 33-29 decision to LSU as 6½-point home favorites at The Swamp in 2010
The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for UF, 2-0 in its home games. Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for LSU this year, but the ‘under’ cashed in its lone road assignment at Auburn. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools.
Georgia at South Carolina
Most sports books opened South Carolina as a 2½-point favorite for Saturday’s crucial SEC East showdown against Georgia. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers started at 57.
On Monday and early Tuesday, the line bounced around from 2½ to 3. By late Tuesday night, many spots had moved the Gamecocks to two-point favorites.
Then on Wednesday, Georgia announced that leading receiver Michael Bennett tore his ACL at Tuesday’s practice and would be out for the rest of the season. Bennett had a team-high 24 receptions for 345 yards and four touchdowns.
Nevertheless, by late Wednesday morning, South Carolina was reduced to a 1 ½-point favorite. The steady decline of the line continued on Thursday when most books moved USC to a one-point ‘chalk.’
The total has also come down as the week has progressed. On Tuesday, a surge of ‘under’ bets prompted betting shops to first adjust to 56 before going down to 55 by early evening. Then on Wednesday, the number dropped to 54 before settling at 53 ½ where it remained as of Friday morning.
South Carolina (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) predictably came out flat last week at Kentucky, falling behind 17-7 at halftime. But the Gamecocks outscored UK 31-0 in the second half and actually covered the number in a 38-17 win as 20-point favorites.
Marcus Lattimore finished with 23 carries for 120 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Connor Shaw completed 15-of-18 passes for 148 yards and two TDs without an interception. Shaw also rushed for 76 yards on 19 totes.
Lattimore is sixth in the SEC in rushing yards (440) and second in rushing touchdowns with eight. Shaw has connected on 50-of-64 passes (78.1%) for 571 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 203 yards, averaging 4.1 YPC.
Georgia (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) is coming off a 51-44 win over Tennessee as a 14-point home favorite. Freshman RB Keith Marshall exploded for 164 rushing yards and two TDs on just 10 carries. Todd Gurley rushed 24 times for 130 yards and three TDs.
UGA junior QB Aaron Murray connected on 19-of-25 passes for 278 yards and two TDs. However, Murray threw a pick-six and also coughed up a fumble that the Volunteers recovered at the enemy nine yard line.
For the season, Murray has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 1,370 yards with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio. Murray won’t have the services of leading receiver Michael Bennett, who was lost for the season when he tore his ACL at Tuesday’s practice. Bennett had a team-high 24 catches for 345 yards and four TDs.
Gurley leads the SEC in rushing yards (536) and rushing TDs (nine), averaging 7.9 YPC. Marshall has rushed for 428 yards and five scores, averaging 9.2 YPC. (Can you say good riddance to Isaiah Crowell?!)
South Carolina owns a 20-13 spread record during Spurrier’s eight-year tenure. As for the Bulldogs, they are 9-7 ATS as road underdogs on Richt’s watch.
The ‘over’ is perfect 5-0 for UGA. South Carolina has seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 overall, 2-1 in its home games.
The ‘under’ has cashed at an incredible 13-2 clip in the last 15 head-to-head meetings between USC and UGA.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Shaw has as many incompletions (four) as TD passes (four) in the last two games.
Wake Forest lost its best player in last week’s loss to Duke, as junior WR Michael Campanaro sustained a hand injury. He’s expected to miss 3-4 weeks. Campanaro had 73 catches in 2011. He had already made 38 catches for 428 yards and three TDs so far this year. The Demon Deacons are seven-point underdogs Saturday at Maryland.
Before Southern Cal’s loss to Stanford on Sept. 15, Sportsbook.ag had QB Matt Barkley as the even-money favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. On Monday, the offshore website had WVU’s Geno Smith as the even-money ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman. After a few days of taking action on Smith, Sportsbook has adjusted him to the minus-125 favorite (risk $125 to win $100). The second-shortest odds belong to FSU’s E.J. Manuel (+350).
Missouri suspended five freshman players on Thursday following a pot bust that resulted in the arrests of three players. Most notably, WR Dorial Green-Beckham was among the players suspended. Several recruiting services ranked ‘DGB’ as the nation’s No. 1 recruit last year. He hasn’t had as much of an impact as expected, though. Green-Beckham has only seven catches for 128 yards and one touchdown.
TCU quarterback Casey Pachall has been suspended indefinitely following his Wednesday night arrest for suspicion of driving while intoxicated. This is a huge loss for the Horned Frogs, who host Iowa St. on Saturday. Pachall had 10 touchdown passes compared to only one interception so far this year.
NCAAF Week 6
Georgia Tech won seven of last nine games vs Clemson in series where dog is 11-4 vs spread, but 0-3 in last three played here; Tech is 4-3 in last seven visits to Death Valley- they scored 30+ points in three of last four meetings, but Jackets got stung last week 49-28 by Middle Tennessee of Sun Belt, allowing 264 rushing yards. In last two games, Tech allowed 91 points, 1,119 TY. Clemson allowed 80 points in last two games, road tilts at Florida State/BC, they also gave up 27 to Ball State, but Tigers have firepower, scoring 36 ppg vs Auburn-FSU-BC, running ball for 320 on the Tigers. ACC home favorites are 3-4 against spread. Clemson is 11-8 as home under Swinney; Tech is 7-4-1 as road dog under Johnson.
Penn State won nine of last 11 games vs Northwestern, winning last five, covering last four; Wildcats covered just one of last five visits to Happy Valley, but they come in 5-0 this year, having run ball for 687 yards in last two games vs I-A opponents (BC/Indiana). Penn State won last three games by combined score of 93-27, after an 0-2 start; they’re 6-14 in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-1 this year. Lions have outscored opponents 76-9 in first half of games this season. Northwestern covered 10 of last 13 tries as a road dog; they won only road game this year 42-41 (-1) at Syracuse. Big Dozen home favorites are 2-3 early in season.
Missouri is having rough first season in SEC, losing first two league games by 21 points each; they had five players involved in minor drug issue this week- they won’t play here, vs Vanderbilt squad that has been off for two weeks since getting bamboozled 48-3 at Georgia. Vandy is 0-3 vs I-A foes, scoring total of only 29 points. Mizzou has beaten Arizona State (24-20), UCF (21-16) but outgained ASU by only 22 yards and was outgained by 49 yards last week in Orlando. Tigers are 6-4 in last ten games as home favorites. Commodores are 2-7 as road underdogs since underrated Bobby Johnson quit Vandy before the ’10 season. SEC home favorites are 5-4 vs spread so far this season.
Virginia Tech won four of last five games vs North Carolina, but only one of five games was decided by more than 7 points, with dogs 4-1 vs spread; Hokies won last two visits here, 26-10 (-3), 21-17 (+3.5). Tar Heels are 6-3 in last nine tries as home favorites, 2-0 this year- they’ve played well in last 10 halves, crushing ECU/Idaho last two weeks, after being down 36-7 at half in Louisville and almost pulling that game out. In its two losses, UNC allowed 640 passing yards. Inexperienced Hokies (lost 8 starters on offense) lost both their road games so far, 35-17 at Pitt, 27-24 to Cincinnati at Redskins’ Stadium in Maryland-- this is first time since ’10 opener that they’re a regular season dog. Tech is 6-4 in last 10 tries as an underdog.
South Carolina beat Georgia last two years (17-6/45-42), after losing nine of previous 12 meetings in this rivalry; Dawgs won five of last seven visits here, with favorites 4-2-1 vs spread and average total, 24.1. Dawgs covered just one of last six games as an underdog, but they’ve been an offensive machine in ’12, scoring 48.2 ppg in 5-0 start, gaining average of 613.3 ypg in last three games. Georgia was tied at half vs Tennessee, down 1 at Mizzou, but outscored those teams 43-24 in second half. Gamecocks won last four games by 21+ points after struggling in opener at Vandy (17-13); they’re 10-6 in last 16 games as home fave (3-0 in ’12). SC plays at LSU/at Florida next two weeks, so brutal schedule for them.
Texas gave up 581 yards in wild 41-36 win in Stillwater last week, a great win for them, but now they host West Virginia squad that gained 808 yards LW against Baylor. QB Smith was 45-51/656 passing- they’ve had 338+ passing yards in all four games this year. Last week might’ve been more of an indictment of Baylor’s joke of a defense, but 45-51 is good on an empty field. I’m now considering New Mexico’s 206 rushing yards vs Texas a red flag for the Longhorns’ defense- they play Oklahoma at Texas State Fair next week; quite a 3-week stretch for them. Over last 10+ years, West Virginia is 13-5 vs spread as a road underdog, Texas is 7-11 in its last 18 games as home favorites. Also needs to be noted that Marshall passed for 413 yards vs WVU and Baylor 582, as Holgorson turns his games into Arena Football-like action.
UCLA is off to 4-1 start under Mora, with wins at Rice (49-24), Colorado (42-14), now they visit Cal’s refurbished stadium where they’ve lost last six visits, with only one of six losses by less than 8 points, but Golden Bears are struggling at 0-4 vs I-A opponents, scoring total of 26 points in last two games. Coach Tedford’s seat is getting hotter (does anyone remember how bad Cal was before he took over?) thanks to home losses vs Nevada/Arizona State; how is someone who coached Aaron Rodgers unable to land better QB recruits? UCLA had 211+ rushing yards in all four wins; Oregon State held them to 72 in their only loss. Over last 4+ years, Bruins are 4-0 as road favorites; since ’05, Cal is 1-6 as a home underdog. Pac-12 home dogs are 4-3 vs spread this season.
Michigan won seven of last nine games vs Purdue, winning three of last five visits here, with four of those five games decided by 6 or less points; favorites are 7-5 vs spread in last 12 series games. 2-2 Wolverines are completing just 54.5% of passes this year; they’ve had two weeks to work since turning ball over six times in 13-6 loss at Notre Dame- they lost other road trip this year, 41-14 to #1 Alabama in Dallas. Purdue scored 54-51 points vs stiffs last two games; they lost 20-17 game at Notre Dame, holding Irish to 52 rushing yards, but losing when better passing QB Rees came off bench late to lead winning drive. Wolverines don’t have anyone who passes like Rees. Since 2007, Michigan is just 2-8-1 vs spread as road favorites. Boilermakers are 5-3-1 as home underdogs under Hope.
Stanford won four of last five games vs Arizona, winning 37-10/42-17 last two years, when Luck was on their side; Luck is in Indy now and Cardinal has struggled on offense, scoring 20-21-13 points in three of their four games (also hammered Duke 50-13)- they’ve completed exactly 50% of passes (51-102) over last three games, which ain’t good. Arizona gave up 38-49-38 points in last three games vs I-A opponents, losing tough 38-35 home games with Oregon State last week; Wildcats are scoring 39 ppg at home, but got waxed 49-0 in their only road game, at Oregon, when they had ball in Ducks’ red zone times but never scored. Since ’08, Stanford is 15-8 as home favorites; since ’09, Arizona is 4-7-1 as road underdogs. Favorites covered last three series games overall, and four of last six played here.
Home side won last five Wake Forest-Maryland games; Deacons lost five of last six visits here, losing 62-14/26-0 in last two tries. Wake was once an automatic play as a road dog, but they’re 5-13 vs spread last 18 times they got points on road, losing 52-0 (+27) at Florida State in only road game this year. Deacons gave up 37-34 points in last two games, to Army/Duke, so their defense isn’t good- they had 362 passing yards in UNC upset, but have total of 534 in three games since. Hard to tell about Maryland yet; holding West Va to 31 points looks good, but they almost lost to Wm & Mary (7-6) and lost 24-21 at home to UConn, Edsall’s old team. Since 2004, Terrapins are 8-17 vs spread as home favorites (2-3 under Edsall). Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games.
Notre Dame is 5-0 and NBC is excited; Irish allowed 26 points in winning last three games vs Big Dozen teams, but this will be stiffer test, on neutral (Chicago, so cooler weather will be foreign to some Miami kids) field vs an explosive offense. Miami can score, but they have an awful defense, allowing 39.3 ppg vs I-A foes-- they’re 4-1, somehow winning at Georgia Tech, in game they led 19-0 before allowing 36 unanswered points to team that struggles throwing the ball. Hurricanes are 5-2 as road dogs under Golden (he’s a very good coach, he won at Temple!!!) but their run defense is putrid, allowing 258 rushing yards/game over last four games—even I-AA Bethune-Cookman had 233. Notre Dame is 8-7-2 vs spread as a favorite under Kelly. With Notre Dame joining in the ACC, guess this replaces Michigan as a big rivalry game for the Irish. Notre Dame (+2.5) beat Miami 33-17 in a bowl game two years ago, in last series meeting.
Counting its bowl game LY, Nebraska has allowed 111 points in losing its last three road games, including 36-30 (-5) at UCLA last month, when Bruins had 344 rushing yards despite starting five freshmen on offense; over last decade, Cornhuskers are 6-13 vs spread when getting points on foreign soil. Ohio State outrushed Nebraska 243-232 in Lincoln LY, but left 34-27 losers, mainly because they completed only 6-18 passes; Buckeyes are 5-0 in first year under Meyer, but underdog covered their last four games. OSU is 3-7 as home favorites since they made Tressel hang up his sweater vest. OSU allowed 532 yards to Cal, then 403 to UAB, but went to East Lansing and won tense 17-16 game, holding Spartans to 303TY. Big Dozen home favorites are 3-2 vs spread early in this season.
LSU is 5-0, but they can’t be happy with last two games, a 12-10 (-20) win at a desperate Auburn squad, then sluggish 36-22 win over I-AA Towson State (was 17-9 at half); this is huge game for transfer QB Mettenberger to establish himself- he’s completed 65.8% of passes, but was just 15-27/169 at Auburn. Until he does better, foes will stack defense against LSU running game, which averaged 4.7 ypa in first three games, but was down to 4.1/4.5 last two weeks. Tigers beat Florida last two years, 33-29/41-11, making them 5-3 in last eight series games; Bayou Bengals outgained Florida 453-213 LY. LSU covered five of last six tries as a road favorite. Over last decade, Florida is 0-3 as an underdog in the Swamp. Gators have had very strong second halves in their two toughest games, wins at Texas A&M/Tennessee.
Other Notes
-- TCU QB Paschall (off-field issues) is out for this week.
-- Navy is 7-1-1 vs spread in its last nine games with Air Force.
-- Michigan State covered 10 of its last 13 games as a road favorite.
-- Northern Illinois covered nine of its last eleven games.
-- Army covered five of its last six home games.
-- Cincinnati covered five of its last six rivalry games with Miami, O.
-- Eastern Michigan covered only five of its last 22 home games.
-- Rutgers covered just once in its last six away games.
-- Western Michigan covered eight of its last 11 as a home favorite.
-- Kansas State covered 12 of its last 17 games overall.
-- Nevada is 25-12 in its last 37 games as a home favorite; Wyoming covered 15 of last 19 as a road underdog.
-- NC State is 9-3-1 in last 13 games as a home underdog.
-- Oregon covered its last eight games against Washington.
-- Oklahoma is 19-8 vs spread in game following a loss.
-- Wisconsin covered nine of last 10 as Big Dozen home favorite.
-- Michigan State covered 10 of its last 13 games against Indiana.
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