South Carolina at LSU
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
South Carolina announced itself as a legitimate national-title contender last weekend. As for LSU, it lost for the first time and is now in desperation mode as the Gamecocks come to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers on Saturday night.
As of Friday afternoon, most books had LSU (5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) installed as a 2½-point favorite with a total of 39½ for ‘over/under’ wagers. Gamblers can take the Gamecocks to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).
South Carolina took Georgia behind the woodshed last Saturday night in Columbia, cruising to a 35-7 win as a one-point home favorite. The 42 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 54½-point total.
Steve Spurrier’s squad raced out to a 21-0 lead midway through the first quarter thanks to a pair of Connor Shaw touchdown passes and a 70-yard punt return for a score by Ace Sanders.
Shaw completed 6-of-10 throws for 162 yards and two TDs without an interception. The junior signal caller also scored on a seven-yard run. Marcus Lattimore posted the third 100-yard game of his career against Georgia, rushing 24 times for 109 yards and one TD.
For the season, Shaw is connecting on 75.7 percent of his passes for 733 yards with a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Shaw is first in the SEC in passing efficiency (184.7). He has also rushed for 281 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
Lattimore has rushed for 549 yards and nine TDs, averaging 4.7 YPC.
South Carolina leads the SEC in sacks with 25. Sophomore defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is second in the SEC in sacks (6 ½) and tackles for losses (11 ½). With Clowney, senior DE Devin Taylor, sophomore DT Kelcy Quarles and junior DE Chaz Sutton, the Gamecocks have one of the nation’s premier defensive lines.
That’s not good news for LSU, which has issues on its offensive line. Starting OT Chris Faulk went down with a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, and now two other starters could be out. Junior OG Josh Williford sustained a concussion last week and is ‘doubtful,’ while OT Alex Hurst left the team earlier this week for personal reasons and is considered ‘questionable.’
Also on the injury front, LSU will most likely be without LB Kwon Alexander, who is ‘doubtful’ with a sprained ankle.
Les Miles’s team had won 18 consecutive regular-season games until Florida won a 14-6 decision over the Tigers as a three-point home underdog. LSU led 6-0 at intermission and it was clear that points were going to be at a premium in the second half.
Florida finally got going offensively behind the between-the-tackles running of senior RB Mike Gillislee, who scored a pair of touchdowns for the Gators. LSU’s offense couldn’t get anything going whatsoever and when it did make a big play, Odell Beckham fumbled inside the red zone when he was stripped by UF safety Matt Elam.
Despite the defeat, everything remains on the table for LSU. In other words, as long as the Tigers take care of their business, they can still win the SEC and probably get into the BCS Championship Game. With that said, another loss most likely eliminates all of the aforementioned goals.
In his first season as a starter, LSU junior QB Zach Mettenberger is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,174 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio.
LSU is led in rushing by sophomore RB Kenny Hilliard, who has 382 yards and six TDs on 58 carries for a 6.6 YPC average. The Tigers are deep in the backfield with Spencer Ware (4.6 YPC) and Michael Ford (5.7 YPC).
During Les Miles’s eight-year tenure, LSU has limped to an 18-28-1 spread record as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 12-8-1 against the spread as road underdogs on Steve Spurrier’s watch.
South Carolina hasn’t played in Baton Rouge since 2007 when LSU won a 28-16 decision as a 17 ½-point underdog. In the last head-to-head meeting in 2008, LSU overcame a halftime deficit to capture a 24-17 victory as a 1½-point road ‘chalk.’
The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for LSU, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its three home games that had a total. Totals have been a wash for South Carolina both overall (3-3) and in its road assignments (1-1)
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Toledo junior QB Terrance Owens is enjoying a sensational year to date. The southpaw has thrown for 1,503 yards with a 9/1 TD-INT ratio. Owens has also rushed for 164 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been the catalyst behind the Rockets’ 5-1 start. They are 15-point favorites Saturday at Eastern Michigan.
La. Tech QB Colby Cameron has 13 TD passes without being intercepted. The Bulldogs take on Texas A&M in Shreveport on Saturday night.
Dating back to 1998, Boise St. owns a 10-1-1 spread record in 12 games as a single-digit home favorite. The Broncos host Fresno St. on Saturday as seven-point favorites.
Nevada QB Cody Fajardo has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ Saturday at UNLV. Fajardo suffered a lower back injury in last week’s 35-28 home win over Wyoming. He has passed for 1,465 yards and rushed for 521. Fajardo has a 9/3 TD-INT ratio and seven rushing scores.
Pac-12 Report - Week 7
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Stanford at Notre Dame
The Cardinal and the Irish hook up in South Bend in one of the more anticipated games of the weekend. The brutal schedule for Notre Dame continues, but at least they play at home. That's fine with Stanford, though, as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games against teams with a road record. Digging deeper, however, we find Stanford is just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games aginst Independents. Hmm. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is an impressive 4-1 ATS in their past five games, including a 41-3 blasting of Miami last weekend in Chicago. If you had heard the Notre Dame defense was pretty good, they were right. But we learned that the Irish have a little something going on offensively, too. In this series, there are no skewed trends in favor of one team or another, but the under has cashed in five of the past six meetings. The under is also 17-5 in Notre Dame's past 22 home games, and 5-2 in Stanford's past seven road games.
Southern California at Washington
The Trojans haven't exactly been cover kings this season, hitting the number just once in five games this season. However, they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against Pac-12 opponents, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record. The Huskies pulled off a signature win at home against Stanford a few weeks ago, but they were unable to carry that momentum to Eugene, losing 52-21 last week. Still, Washington is 2-1 ATS in their past three games, and those two covers came at home. Remember this, the Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their past seven meetings with U-Dub, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Seattle. The underdog, presumably, without looking, Washington every time, is 5-2 ATS in the past seven battles between these sides.
Oregon State at Brigham Young
This game had the look of a marquee game until last week. The Beavers ended up losing QB Sean Mannion (knee) for at least two to four weeks due to torn cartilage in his knee, meaning QB Cody Vaz will make his first collegiate start. Going up against the vaunted BYU defense, which has allowed 10 total points over their past three games, it is a tall order for Vaz. It's also reason why there is a rare college total under 40 (currently at 37). The Cougs have problems of their own under center, as they lost versatile QB Taysom Hill (knee) to a knee injury last Friday. He is done for the season, and will be replaced, most likely, by former starter QB Riley Nelson. This game has the look of a slog, but under 37 is still a risky proposition. The Beavers are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six games, and the public apparently likes that. However, you have to remember Mannion is out, and this will look like a completely different offense against a stout D. The Cougs are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games.
Utah at UCLA
The Bruins are a difficult team to figure. They come into this game with a still impressive 4-2 record, but they were punished in Berkeley last week, 43-17. Really, they never win at Cal, but the Bears are not good this year, and the Bruins have looked better. Guess not. Suddenly, UCLA is just 1-2 ATS in their past three games, and they need to get untracked. Utah would seem like the perfect team to pick it up against, but they were spanked by the Utes 31-6 in the last meeting. Utah is 0-2 this season away from Rice-Eccles Stadium, however, so it will be an uphill climb. Utah is just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home record, and the Bruins are 5-1 ATS in their past six home games. If you don't have a sour taste in your mouth from past UCLA failures, and can look at this objectively, UCLA looks like the clear-cut play. However, keep in mind UCLA is just 7-16 ATS in their past 23 Pac-12 games, and 3-13 ATS in their past 16 games in the month of October.
California at Washington State
California was a struggling 1-4 club, but they got well last week and whaled on UCLA 43-17. All of a sudden, things are looking up for head coach Jeff Tedford's bunch. This team can run the football with authority, and they could keep things going in the right direction with a win on the Palouse. The Bears are just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 road games, however, although they are an impressive 5-2 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. WaZu is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games in the month of October. They are also 8-3 ATS in their past 11 meetings with Cal. However, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, so be careful with the line. The over has cashed in five straight home games for Washington State, but the under is 11-4 in Cal's past 15 games. This game is a good idea to stay far away from.
NCAAF Week 7
Have to wonder about quality of Texas’ defense, allowing 31-36-48 points in last three games, with 31 points allowed to Ole Miss the most alarming number; Longhorns lost last two years to Oklahoma (55-17/28-20); 11 of last 14 series games were decided by 10+ points. Sooners have already had two bye weeks- their game in Lubbock last week was fairly easy win, while Texas is playing third tough foe (Okla State/WVa) in a row. Longhorns are 15-17 vs spread as favorites since ’09. Texas covered just twice in last six games as a dog; since ’08, they’re 5-7 vs spread in game following a loss.
Wisconsin won its last six games with Purdue, covering by average of 13 points (average score last four years, 38-9); Badgers bamboozled Purdue 62-17 LY, running ball for 364 yards, passing for 241. Wisconsin is a bully team though, and they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing at both Oregon State/Nebraska by a FG, gaining under 300 TY in both games- they’re 9-15-1 vs spread in last 25 road games. Purdue was held to 17-13 points in its two losses (ND/Michigan); they scored 54-51 in two I-A wins, both vs stiffs- they’re 10-13-1 vs spread at home under Hope. Big Dozen home teams are 6-4 vs spread in league play.
Northwestern won four of last five games with Minnesota, winning 29-28/24-17 in last two visits here; underdogs covered last four series games, four of last five played here. Wildcats were 5-0 until blowing 28-17 4th quarter lead at Penn State last week; have to worry about defense that gave up 41 to Syracuse, 29 to Indiana- they wore down late last week. Northwestern is 2-7-1 in last ten games as a road favorite. Gophers had last week off- they’re 15-19 vs spread in last 34 home games (since ’06, 9-9 as home underdogs), but 2-0 this year- all three of their I-A wins are by 7 or less points (UNLV/WMich/Syracuse).
Louisville is 5-0, but its last three wins are by 5-7-4 points, so not like they’re worldbeaters, having trailed winless Southern Miss at half and being tied at FIU at half; they had last week off, while Pitt was losing Friday night game 14-13 at Syracuse. Cardinals are 10-3 vs spread on road under Strong, 0-2 this year, but both non-covers were as double digit favorites. Panthers are 2-3 with loss to a I-AA team; they won their last four games vs Louisville by average score of 29-9-- favorites covered five of last seven series games. Pitt covered six of last seven tries as a home underdog. Nationwide, home dogs are 22-25 vs spread in league play.
Huge trap/sandwich game for Florida, which has beaten Vanderbilt 21 straight times, but is off huge LSU win, with South Carolina on deck; Gators won last 10 visits here by average of 20 points (55-14/42-14 last two visits), but are 4-6 vs spread in last 10 series games overall. Florida covered 10 of last 14 games as an SEC favorite. Vandy covered last four tries as a home underdog; they upset dysfunctional SEC newbie Missouri last week, but have scored just 12 ppg vs I-A opponents. In its three toughest games, A&M/Tennessee/LSU, Florida outscored them 51-6 in second half, a huge number. SEC home dogs are 4-3 against spread.
Kansas State is 5-0 with win at Oklahoma and 52-13 win over Miami; since ’04, Wildcats are just 3-11 vs spread as road favorites, so interesting trap game for them here, on Iowa state campus where K-State lost last visit as 15-point road favorites five years ago. Wildcats beat ISU last four years since then, but 38-30 was widest margin of victory. Cyclones are 11-9 in last 20 games as home underdogs; they’ve got wins at Iowa/TCU, but took advantage of Frogs’ QB’s suspension last week. Iowa State was outgained by 105 yards in LW’s win, gained just 189 TY in home loss to Texas Tech game before that. Big X home teams are 2-8 vs spread in conference play this year, 1-3 if underdogs.
Auburn is 0-3 in SEC play for first time in 30+ years, running ball for just 72.3 yards/game in conference games; they lost 24-7 at home to a horrible Arkansas team last week, so major problems for Tiger squad that covered only once in last seven away games- they’re 3-10 vs spread in last 13 tries as a road underdog. Auburn won 10 of last 12 games vs Ole Miss, winning last three by average score of 42-25; favorites are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 series games. Rebels allowed 43 ppg in last three games vs BCS-level foes, but went toe-to-toe with A&M last week before losing 30-27. Ole Miss is 11-7 in last 18 games as a home favorite. SEC home favorites are 6-5 against spread.
Favorites covered last ten Fresno-Boise games, with Boise winning last six by average score of 50-18; Bulldogs lost last five visits here (0-5 vs spread) by average score of 51-14, but gap seems to have narrowed little this year, with Fresno revitalized under new coach DeRuyter; they’ve covered six in row as road underdog since last visit here in ’10. Hard to tell lot about Boise since teams they’ve beaten are poor; they led 25-0 at half at improved New Mexico, but had to hang on for 32-29 win. Broncos are 1-7 in last eight games as home favorite, after covering 26 of previous 40. Home teams covered four of first five MWC league games this season.
Bad schedule spot for Stanford here, off wild OT win over league rival Arizona last week (gave up 491 passing yards), with arch-rival Cal on deck (first time in decades game hasn’t been in November). Cardinal won last three games vs Notre Dame, scoring 36.7 ppg, but this Irish team is playing stellar defense, allowing total of 12 points in last three games (Michigan/Mich St/Miami). Since ’03, ND is 16-29-2 vs spread as a home favorite. Stanford, which lost 17-13 at Washington in only previous road game, is 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as road underdog. Pac-12 road teams are 3-7 vs spread in non-league games, 2-3 if road underdogs.
Tennessee coach Dooley had operation for broken hip earlier this week, will coach from press box; his 3-2 Vols had last week off- they allowed 336-282 rushing yards in losses to Florida (37-20)/Georgia (51-44)- they’re 3-4 as road underdogs under Dooley. Vols won last five games vs Miss State by average score of 37-16, covering four of five (favored in all five), winning 33-21/35-17 here. Bulldogs are 6-4 vs spread in last 10 games as home favorite; they’re 5-0 this year but haven’t played good team yet (Auburn/Troy best two). SEC home favorites are 6-5 vs spread. Big game for Dooley here, with Bama/South Carolina games on deck.
South Carolina pummeled Georgia 35-7 LW, after lackluster effort at Kentucky (down 17-7 at half, won 38-17) week before; Gamecocks lost last four games with LSU by average score of 31-14, but teams haven’t met since 2008. Carolina is allowing just 10.5 ppg; they’re 12-8-1 as road underdogs under Spurrier but have bigger divisional game with Florida (Spurrier’s alma mater) up next. LSU got blanked in second half of 14-6 loss at Florida last week; they haven’t scored TD in last two SEC games (won 12-10 at Auburn, with shaky 36-22 win over I-AA Towson in between). Tigers are 18-27-1 as home favorites under Miles.
West Virginia (+6.5) won 48-45 in Austin LW, despite allowing defensive TD and converting only 3 of 12 on 3rd down; Holgorson returns to one of his old stomping grounds here, with WVa squad that is scoring 54.5 ppg vs I-A opponents. Problem is, they allowed 545 yards to Marshall, 700 to Baylor, so Texas Tech (4-1 after 41-20 home loss to Oklahoma LW) is live home dog (covered six of last eight as home underdog). WVa is 5-7-1 vs spread as road favorite since RichRod left town; this is second consecutive long trip for them, downside of new league. Big X favorites are 6-4 so far this year, 1-1 on road. Last two weeks, WVa was 35-35/27-28 at halftime, so they’re fun to watch.
5-0 Louisiana Tech has covered nine of last 11 games as home underdog; they already have wins at Illinois (52-24), Virginia (44-28), Houston (56-49), now go for home win over BCS squad, in game that was ppd Sept 8, because of hurricane; Bulldogs lost last five games with A&M, losing 48-16 (+19) on road in last meeting in ’10- they’re scoring 53.2 ppg, gaining 598+ TY in three of five games. Aggies came from behind LW to win 30-27 (-13) at Ole Miss, despite turning ball over six times- they ran ball for 290 yards. Since ’08, A&M is 5-6 as road favorite. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-15 vs spread, 4-2 on road. WAC underdogs are 8-6, 2-1 at home.
Other Notes
-- Iowa covered eight of its last ten games with Michigan State.
-- Miami Hurricanes covered only four of last 12 home games.
-- Road team covered seven of last eight Bowling Green-Miami games.
-- UCF is 21-10-1 vs spread in its last 32 home games.
-- Favorite covered seven of last eight Oklahoma State-Kansas games.
-- Army covered six of its last seven home games.
-- Virginia covered five of its last six games with Maryland.
-- Rutgers covered five of its last seven games with Syracuse.
-- Florida is 4-11 vs spread as an ACC home favorite.
-- East Carolina covered its last ten games with Memphis.
-- Road team covered 10 of last 14 Air Force-Wyoming games.
-- Oregon State QB Mannion (knee) isn’t expected to play this week.
-- Alabama covered 12 of its last 17 games as an SEC road favorite.
Armadillosports.com
College Football Value Plays
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
Each week we look at the biggest differentials between what The Linemakers College Football Power Ratings say a point spread should be and what the actual market price is. A lot of the differences lay within the proper rating of a home-field advantage, but sometimes we have a number that is way off the charts relative to the actual point spread. It doesn’t mean ours is necessarily the right number, but we’re usually closer to being right than wrong.
As sports book directors, we used these ratings to help shade the numbers in our books. We'd be crazy to post our exact thoughts against the market line, but we would shade the numbers to ensure we at least got our first few bets on the desired team. If we thought Michigan State should be -15, but the betting market everywhere else had -8.5, we may open the game -10 or -10.5. We'd eventually get pushed to the market price, but at least we had bets on the side we hoped for.
We simplify this process for you by calculating the biggest differentials each week and relaying to you which teams present the best value. It saves you the work, and gives you a nice tool as you’re finalizing your betting strategies for Saturday.
On the left is the bet number and team that offers the best value relative to the current Vegas line.
114 Michigan State (-8.5) vs. Iowa: We show the game being closer to -15.
116 Miami-Fla (-8) vs. North Carolina: UNC should be favored by only -3.
118 Bowling Green (-7.5) vs. Miami-Ohio: The line should be -12.
126 Virginia (-1) vs. Maryland: We have UVA -6.5.
128 Virginia Tech (-10) vs. Duke: The Hokies should be -16.
134 Rutgers (-7.5) vs. Syracuse: We like Rutgers by 15.
138 Connecticut (-5) vs. Temple: UConn -10.5 is closer to being correct.
142 East Carolina (-17) vs. Memphis: We have ECU -24.5.
150 Northern Illinois (-14) vs. Buffalo: NIU -18.5 is the better number.
155 Auburn (+6) at Mississippi: We have Ole Miss only a half-point better.
162 Boise State (-7.5) vs. Fresno State: We made the line Broncos -13.
164 Washington (+13) vs. USC: The Trojans should be only -8.
168 Missouri (+21) vs. Alabama: Alabama -13.5 is the more accurate spread.
186 Central Florida (-17) vs. Southern Miss: We made the game -21.
194 Rice (-2.5) vs. Texas-San Antonio: The Owls should be -9
197 Colorado Sate (+22.5) at San Diego State: Aztecs by only 17.5.