College Football Betting Preview: Virginia Tech at Clemson
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Clemson -9.5 O/U 61
CRIS Current: Clemson -8 O/U 62
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Clemson -9.5
I sense renewed problems for Virginia Tech in this matchup after going 0-2 SU/ATS and outscored by a combined total of 61-13 against Clemson last season. Tech’s shortcomings against Clemson last year were two-fold as they couldn’t run the football to keep the Tigers offense off the field (69 total rush attempts for 189 yards, 2.7 per carry) and they couldn’t protect quarterback Logan Thomas (allowed 6 sacks in 71 pass attempts, 1 every 11.8). With a far less experienced receiving crew combined with the inaccurate Thomas throwing the football (52.3% completions), Clemson should be able to focus on stopping the run and underneath passing game. The Hokies have seen a bunch of that recently and have resorted to throwing a number of low percentage deep balls which has produced back-back 300+ passing games but much of that is attributed to playing from way behind on the scoreboard. Clemson is not a great defensive team at this point under new defensive coordinator Brent Venables and VT may hit a long completion or two but the fundamentals suggest it will hardly be enough to keep pace with the Tigers unstoppable offense.
On offense, Clemson has sawed through the opposition for 41.3 points and 525.8 total yards per game. The opposing defenses have not been good overall but the way the Tigers tore up Florida State’s fourth-ranked defense (37 points, 426 yards) indicates how strong they are. Virginia Tech had a tougher time handling Clemson in the rematch last season allowing 217 yards rushing and 240 yards passing which shows that despite having game tape on offensive coordinator Chad Morris’ offense, they still regressed. With Clemson returning every key skill position component (minus TE Dwayne Allen) from that young offense, it’s hard to see this lesser version of the Hokies defense stopping them.
Throughout his tenure at Virginia Tech, you could almost always back defensive coordinator Bud Foster in anticipation of him conceiving a defense to confuse and halt the opponent but this season we haven’t seen that. Aside from Georgia Tech’s run-heavy option offense in their season opener which VT had an entire summer to prepare for, this defense has been lit up by any capable offense it has faced. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, North Carolina and Duke have combined to average 450.3 yards and 32 points against them. With Clemson off of a bye week, expect the damage they wreak upon Tech to be even higher. North Carolina, whose up-tempo offense is most comparable to Clemson’s, did exceed each of those averages in winning by 14 over Virginia Tech. With all the advantages Clemson figures to have here, the problem with mechanically playing them is that the line is basically right on target. With that in mind, the higher percentage play here is likely to be OVER 61.5. In games played against teams other than Auburn and Furman, the Tigers have yielded 34.5 ppg and the game totals have averaged 79.8 ppg. With a lot more allowance for success lying in the current total, weather permitting, that’s the way I’ll recommend this one.
College Football Value Plays
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
Each week we look at the biggest differentials between what The Linemakers College Football Power Ratings say a point spread should be and what the actual market price is. A lot of the differences lay within the proper rating of a home-field advantage, but sometimes we have a number that is way off the charts relative to the actual point spread.
It doesn't mean ours is necessarily the right number, but we're usually closer to being right than wrong.
As sports book directors, we used these ratings to help shade the numbers in our books. We'd be crazy to post our exact thoughts against the market line, but we would shade the numbers to ensure we at least got our first few bets on the desired team. If we thought Florida State should be -15 against Miami, but the betting market everywhere else had -21.5, we may open the game -19.5 or -20. We'd eventually get pushed to the market price, but at least we had bets on the side we hoped for.
We simplify this process for you by calculating the biggest differentials each week and relaying to you which teams present the best value. It saves you the work, and gives you a nice tool as you're finalizing your betting strategies for Saturday.
On the left are the bet number and team that offers the best value relative to the current Vegas line.
329 NC State (-3) at Maryland: We think the line should be closer to -9
335 Rutgers (-4) at Temple: Rutgers should be about -14.
350 Tennessee (+20.5) vs. Alabama: The Tide should be only -14 on the road here.
353 Washington (+8) at Arizona: We like Arizona at -4 here.
355 Purdue (+18.5) at Ohio State: The Buckeyes should be laying only 12.
366 Miami-Fla (+21.5) vs. Florida State: The ‘Noles -15 is the better number.
377 Western Michigan (+3) at Kent State: The wrong team is favored here. Western Michigan should be -2.
381 Central Florida (-22.5) at Memphis: UCF should be laying a bigger number, closer to -28.
384 Louisville (-6) vs. South Florida: We like Louisville at -11.
386 Louisiana Tech (-30) vs. Idaho: La. Tech -36 is more like it.
393 Pittsburgh (-8) at Buffalo: We like Pittsburgh -14.
410 Mississippi State (-19) vs. Middle Tennessee State: Miss State should be closer to -26.
College Football Weather
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
In the pass-happy Big 12, wind is a factor, whether West Virginia quarterback and Heisman candidate Geno Smith admits it or not.
Mountaineers’ coach Dan Holgorsen said a gusty 20-30 mph Lubbock, Texas, wind affected Smith in last week’s loss to the Red Raiders. But Smith disagreed with his coach and told reporters, “Anyone who says that obviously doesn’t know football.”
Professional football bettors tend to side with Holgorsen and believe wind actually can play more of a factor than rain or even snow.
"Wind, especially one blowing across the field, can be an issue," said longtime Vegas bookmaker and sports bettor Richie Baccellieri.
Wind definitely played a role in day-to-day life this week in the Midwest. According to Weather.com, there were 392 reports of 58-mph or higher winds, including 25 reports of at least 75 mph winds, in the previous three days. The strong winds were centered in Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri and could linger during Saturday’s action. Parts of Interstate 35 had to be closed in Oklahoma due to a dust storm caused by this week’s wind.
Purdue at Ohio State (-18.5, 62), 12 p.m.: Showers are expected in the morning, but should be decreasing by afternoon. Winds could gust up to 25 mph.
Northern Illinois (-16.5, 66) at Akron, 12 p.m.: Rain and a stiffening 10-15 mph wind is expected throughout the day in Ohio.
Ball State (-3, 65.5) at Central Michigan, 3:30 p.m.: Showers are expected to clear out before kickoff, leaving a brisk wind gusting from 15-25 mph.
Western Michigan at Kent State (-3.5, 53), 3:30 p.m.: 40 percent chance of showers throughout the day with gusty winds from 10-20 mph.
Utah at Oregon State (-10, 46.5), 10:30 p.m.: Rain is expected throughout Saturday in Corvallis, with temperatures dropping into the 30s by kickoff.
Pittsburgh (-9, 54.5) at Buffalo, 8 p.m.: 30 percent chance of rain throughout the day, with winds between 10-15 mph.
Kansas at Oklahoma (-34.5, 57.5), 7 p.m.: Winds are expected to gust up to 20 mph during Saturday’s game.