Win Total Best Bets
By Kyle Hunter
VegasInsider.com
The college football season gets underway in just under one month. If you are like me, it can't come soon enough. There's nothing like the passion of college football, and we're all about finding ways to make money while betting on college football. You can build your bankroll by wagering on games throughout the year, but I see season win totals as another great option as long as you have a large enough bankroll to support them.
There are less unknowns with season win totals. Anything can happen in one game, but I feel like an entire season is more predictable. With these wagers, I believe offseason homework is even more critical. Which teams have the best depth? Who has a favorable schedule? Who are oddsmakers overrating or underrating heading into the season? The season win total lines give us our first look at what the books think of each team.
Last year, I was able to compile a 3-2 record with my Best Bets and could've gone 4-1 if it wasn't for UCLA coming up short by a game.
Here's a look at my five favorite college football Win Total plays for the 2015 season.
1) Virginia Tech Over 8 Wins
The Virginia Tech Hokies went to Columbus and beat Ohio State last year, and from that point on the season went downhill in a hurry. While most seem to think that Virginia Tech just wasn't very good, the truth is this Hokies team was decimated by injuries. On both sides of the ball, their playmakers weren't on the field for the majority of the season. This team has a very high upside, and you have to assume they'll get more fortunate on the injury front this year.
Bud Foster is arguably the best defensive coordinator in college football, and he has a ton of talent to work with this season. Luther Maddy will anchor a terrific defensive front. Kendall Fuller is the biggest star in the secondary, but Virginia Tech's secondary should be a virtual "no-fly zone." The Hokies have the best defense in the ACC, and that's worth a lot in a league without any amazing teams this season.
Virginia Tech hosts Ohio State in the season opener. The Buckeyes have four key players suspended for that one, but they are still a big favorite for a reason. Things get a lot easier for Virginia Tech after that game. I think 10 regular season wins is a real possibility for Virginia Tech, and I like over eight wins a lot.
2) Pittsburgh Over 6 Wins
Pat Narduzzi is going to do a great job with this Pittsburgh Panthers program. Pitt hasn't had a good defense in several years, but that's going to change with a defensive guru like Narduzzi. He has been the defensive coordinator at Michigan State for a long time, and I think Pittsburgh will look a lot like a less-talented Michigan State team in the coming seasons. James Conner is a battering ram at running back, and Narduzzi is going to use him early and often. Tyler Boyd is one of the nation's best receivers. Chad Voytik improved late last year, and I expect him to be better than expected this year.
No ACC schedule is too tough, and Pittsburgh gets to finish with four of their last five games at home. Even if they get off to a slower start than expected, Pittsburgh has a great chance at reaching seven wins. Narduzzi won't let this team quit. The Panthers should be a surprise contender in the ACC Coastal.
3) Auburn Over 8.5 Wins
The Auburn Tigers are in my preseason top five. I think they have a great chance to be the best team in the SEC. It's definitely a bold statement, but I think there are several reasons to be so high on the Tigers. Auburn has been tremendous offensively the last few years. Will Muschamp was hired in to lead the defense. No matter what you think of Muschamp's work as a head coach, he has proven to be a great defensive coordinator, and he should do a great job here. If this defense improves as much as I expect, Auburn is going to be very tough to beat.
Jeremy Johnson might actually be an upgrade over Nick Marshall at quarterback. Johnson isn't the runner that Marshall was, but he has a much better arm. Gus Malzahn's offense lends itself to a ton of great rushing options. Auburn shouldn't have trouble running the football. The schedule here is friendly also with Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama all playing at Jordan Hare Stadium.
4) Boston College Under 5.5 Wins
I respect Steve Addazio a lot as a coach, but I still can't find six wins for Boston College this year. Boston College returns only four guys on offense. Tyler Murphy was a one-man show most of the year for the Eagles last season, and without him this team is going to struggle. Andre Williams isn't walking through the door either. Boston College is going to be awful on offense this season. The defensive line is the strength of the team, and the Eagles will fight on defense, but they are undermanned. The secondary will give up a lot of yards.
The Eagles have a stretch where they play at Clemson, at Louisville, vs. Virginia Tech, vs. NC State, and vs. Notre Dame (in Boston). Realistically, there is a good chance the Eagles will lose all five of those games. I see this team finishing with four wins. It will be a long season in Chestnut Hill.
5) Ohio Over 5 Wins
Frank Solich is a really good coach. He's been underrated since his days at Nebraska. The Ohio Bobcats are being badly underrated going into the 2015 season. Ohio went 6-6 in an injury-plagued disappointing season in 2014. Apparently, the oddsmakers expect things to continue to get worse for the Bobcats in the year ahead. I will be very surprised if that happens. The Bobcats return 10 starters on offense. Derrius Vick is a playmaker who should have a strong senior season. The defense is the strength of the team. The linebackers are awesome led by Quentin Poling and Jovon Johnson.
Ohio has a few "slam dunk" type games vs. SE Louisiana, Miami (Ohio), and probably Kent State as well. With no terrific teams in the MAC this year, Ohio is going to find a way to win at least six games if for no other reason than they have a strong defense and a great coach. Take the season win total over here.