College Total Trends
By Bruce Marshall
Handicapping the weekly college football card has always been a comprehensive exercise. Although we have to admit that the process was a bit less cumbersome in the old days. We recall those times when the "board" teams for college football included what roughly approximates the BCS conference lineup today; until 1984, numbers were regularly posted only on the ACC, SEC, Big Ten (when it only had ten teams!), Big 8, Southwest, Pac-10, various independents (including most eastern indies who now comprise much of the Big East), and, believe it or not, the Ivy League. It wasn’t until 1985 that Las Vegas began to regularly post numbers on WAC, MAC, and PCAA (Big West) teams, although certain books didn’t include those extra leagues for a few more years. Eventually, the Ivies disappeared from the big board, but new leagues such as the Big East, Conference USA, Big XII, the Mountain West, and Sun Belt were formed. Numerous independents scattered, most joining conferences, while many of the leagues themselves took on new looks and compositions.
Fast forward to 2010, and the college board has never been larger, with more teams having weekly point-spreads posted than ever before; indeed, the weekly card alone is almost twice as big as it was in the early ‘80s. A trip to a Las Vegas sportsbook is even more mind-boggling, with "halftime" wagers now available on most of the college card as well.
Moreover, "totals" are now being posted on most of the college games as well. And therein lie some of the more interesting betting opportunities on the weekly card.
Thus, we’re taking at much harder look at college "totals" lately, not only because of their availability, but also because of some eye-opening trends (such as Rice "over" 42-14 since 2005, Vanderbilt "under" 28-9 its last 37, and "overs" in the last nine battles for "Paul Bunyan's Axe" between Minnesota and Wisconsin) we’ve seen emerge that are too hard to ignore. Following are some of the more-illuminating team and series "totals" angles that warrant attention as the 2010 season kicks into gear. Records reflect results through the just-completed September 18 weekend of college action; to avoid excessive copy duplications, series "totals" marks are notated on only one of the sides.
Air Force...Falcs "over" last 3 vs. Colorado State and last four vs. UNLV. Akron...Zips "over" 10-6 at home since ‘07, also "over" last four vs. nearby Kent State. Alabama...Tide "under" 8-2-1 last 11 vs. "Iron Bowl" rival Auburn. Arizona...Cats "under" 17-9 vs. FBS foes in Tucson since 2005. Also "over" last 3 vs. Washington but "under" last four vs. Southern Cal. Arizona State..."Under" last 3 vs. Washington State, last 4 vs. UCLA, and last 5 vs. Territorial Cup rival Arizona. Sun Devils also a surprising "under" 14-6 at home vs. FBS foes since HC Dennis Erickson arrived in 2007, and 20-9 "under" in Tempe vs. FBS teams since 2005. Arkansas...Razorbacks "over" 14-7 as host since 2007 and 20-9 since 2005. Also "over" last 5 vs. LSU and 4 of last 5 vs. South Carolina. Arkansas State...Red Wolves "over" first two in 2010 but "under" 23-13 overall since ’07, also "under" 15-5 on road since ’07. Army...Black Knights "under" 11-5 last 16 on board, also West Point also "under" last 4 vs. Navy. Auburn...Tigers "over" 6-2 at Jordan-Hare Stadium since HC Gene Chizik arrived LY. Ball State...Cards "under" 10-3 last 13 vs. FBS foes. Baylor...Bears "under" 9-4 since last season for HC Art Briles. Boise State..."Under" last 3 vs. New Mexico State but "over" last 3 vs. Nevada and 4 of last 5 vs. rival Idaho. Boston College... "Over" 13-6 at home since '07 and 20-9 since '05. Also "over" last 3 vs. both NC State and Wake Forest. Bowling Green...Falcs "under" last 3 vs. Toledo. Buffalo...Bulls went "under" last week at home vs. UCF but still "over" 15-8 at home since 2005. BYU..."Under" 11-6 since 2007 at Provo.
Cal...Bears "under" last 6 vs. Southern Cal, but "over" 5 of last 6 vs. Washington. Central Michigan...Chips were "over" 4-0 at home LY and but "under" 8-3 away from Mt. Pleasant since '09. Cincinnati...Bearcats "under" 16-7 at home since '05, also "under" 5 of last 6 vs. Syracuse. Clemson...Tigers "under" 8 of last 9 vs. Maryland, and "over" 5 of last 6 vs. Florida State. Colorado...Buffs "over" 6 of last 7 vs. Iowa State and last 4 vs. Nebraska. Colorado State...Rams "under" last 3 vs. TCU. UConn...Huskies "over" 9-2 at Rentschler Field since 2008. Also "over" last 3 vs. West Virginia. Duke...Blue Devils "over" 18-4 at Wallace Wade Stadium since ’06. East Carolina...Pirates "over" their first 3 for new HC Ruffin McNeill this season but "under" last 3 vs. Marshall and 4 of last 5 vs. UAB. Eastern Michigan...Eagles "over" last 3 vs. Toledo. Florida...Gators "over" 25-17 their last 42 on board. Also "under" 5-1 last 6 vs. Florida State. Florida Atlantic..."Over" last 3 vs. La.-Lafayette but "under" last 3 vs. Middle Tennessee. Florida International...Golden Panthers "over" 14-7 away since 2007, also "over" last 3 vs. Middle Tennesssee. Florida State...Seminoles "over" 22-10 away since 2005, but "under" last 3 vs. Maryland. Fresno State...Bulldogs "over" 17-9 their last 26 away from Bulldog Stadium.
Georgia...Bulldogs "under" last 3 vs. Vanderbilt. Georgia Tech...Jackets "under" 5 of last 6 vs. Virginia; Hawaii...Warriors a surprising "under" 23-16 their last 39 on board. Houston...Cougars "over" last 4 vs. crosstown rival Rice. Idaho..."Over" 11 -1 last 12 away from Kibbie Dome. Illinois...Illini "under" 10-5 last 15 on board and "under" 7 of last 8 vs. Northwestern. Indiana...Hoosiers "over" 20-13 last 33 on board and "over" last 5 vs. Iowa but "under" 8 of last 9 vs. Wisconsin. Iowa...Hawkeyes "under" 14-5 last 19 away from Iowa City and "under" last 5 vs. Northwestern. Iowa State...Cyclones now "under" 12-3 since HC Paul Rhoads arrived last season. Kansas...Jayhawks "over" last 4 vs. Nebraska. Kansas State...Wildcats "under" 9-5 since Bill Snyder reappeared on sidelines last season. Kent State...Golden Flashes "under" 7-2 last 9 away, but "over" last 4 vs. Akron. Kentucky...Cats now "over" 9-1 their last 10 at Commonwealth Stadium. UK also "over" last 3 vs. South Carolina. UL-Lafayette...Ragin' Cajuns "over" last 3 vs. Florida Atlantic. UL-Monroe...Warhawks "under" last 5 vs. North Texas. La Tech...Bulldogs "under" 15-7 away since '07. Louisville...Cards "under" 6-1 at Papa John's Stadium since LY. LSU...Tigers "under' 7-1 at Baton Rouge since last season, but "over" last 4 vs. Alabama.
Marshall...Herd "over" 2-1 for new HC Doc Holliday out of the blocks this season but still "under" 24-13 since 2007. Maryland...Terps "under" 24-14 last 38 on board for Ralph Friedgen, also "under" 5 of last 6 vs. Virginia. Memphis..."Under" last 3 vs. this week's foe UTEP, also "under" last 3 and 4 of last 5 vs. Marshall. Miami-Florida...Canes "under" 22-7 last 29 as host, also "under" 6 of last 7 vs. Virginia Tech; Miami-Ohio...RedHawks "over" last 4 vs. both Buffalo and Ohio. Michigan...Wolverines "over" 12-6 last 18 away. Michigan State...Spartans "over" 22-9 their last 31 away, also "over" last 6 vs. Wisconsin. Middle Tennessee...Blue Raiders "under" 11-5 last 16 vs. FBS foes at Murfreesboro, and "under" last 4 vs. Troy; Minnesota...Gophers "under" 19-9 as host vs. FBS foes since 2005. Ole Miss...Rebs "under" 17-10 last 27 away. Mississippi State...Bulldogs "under" last 3 vs. Alabama but "over" last 3 vs. Arkansas. Missouri...Tigers "under" 12-4 since late 2008, but "over" last 3 vs. Iowa State. Navy...Mids "under" 8 of last 10 Commander-in-Chief battles vs. Air Force & Army. Nebraska...Huskers "over" their first 3 this season after "under" 12-3 previous 15 for Bo Pelini. Also "under" last 4 vs. Iowa State. Nevada...Wolf Pack "over" first 3 this season and 8 of last 11 since mid 2009. Also "over" last 5 vs. New Mexico State; New Mexico...Lobos "over" last 5 since late 2009, but "under" last 3 vs. this week's foe UNLV. New Mexico State...Aggies "under" 9-5 since HC DeWayne Walker arrived LY, also "under" last 5 vs. Fresno State.
North Carolina...Heels "over" last 3 and 5 of last 6 vs. NC State. NC State...Wolfpack "over" 13-7 at Raleigh since '07 (although "under" 2-0 at Carter Stadium this September). North Texas...Mean Green "over" 10-5 last 15 at Denton, but "under" 4 of last 5 vs. Troy. Northern Illinois...Huskies "under" 25-13 since 2007. Northwestern...Wildcats "under' 12-7 away since 2007. Notre Dame...Irish "under" 12-5 away since 2007, but "over" 4 of last 5 vs. Navy. Ohio...Bobcats "over" 10-6 at home since 2007. Ohio State...Buckeyes are "over" 3-0 in early going this season, but remember that they entered this season "under" 10-3 their previous 13. Jim Tressel also "under" 5 of last 6 vs. Penn State. Oklahoma...Sooners surprising "under" 12-4 their last 16 on board, but "over" 6 of last 7 vs. Texas A&M. Oklahoma State...Cowboys way "over" first 3 at Stillwater TY, now "over" 19-7 as host since 2006. Oregon...Ducks "over" first 3 this season and "over" 10-1 last 11 at Eugene, but "under" last 4 vs. UCLA. Oregon State...Beavers "over" last 8 vs. Civil War rival Oregon State. Penn State...Nittany Lions "under" 11-2 since last season. Pitt...Panthers "over" first two this season for Dave Wannstedt but still "under' 22-15 since 2007. Purdue...Boilermakers "under" 23-8 at Ross-Ade Stadium since 2005, also "under" last 6 vs. Ohio State (although didn't meet in '06-07).