CONFERENCE FINALS

Hi Vegasflyer56, did you post a while back the rankings from last years playoff? I was looking for the post, apparently it was lost in a recent glitch that this site had, some hackers crashed the site. What does the difference mean: Bal 4 and Phl 5. Does that mean that these teams should be favored by this amount or ? And more importanatly how do you use this informaiton?

This week the power ratings actually favor Baltimore over Pittsburgh by 4 points. The line has Pittsburgh favored by 6, so you have great value in betting the Ravens against Pittsburgh this week. The power ratings show the Eagles should be -5. They opened at -3, and are -3.5 right now. I think this line may go up more as the game gets closer. The Eagles have a 1.5 point cushion vs the spread right now. I have already bet the Ravens and the Eagles. I will be coming out with two or three books next year, on how I set my power ratings at the beginning of the season, and another one on new head coaches and what affect they have vs. the line.
The thing about power ratings is you have to make adjustments. It's a weekly grind, but I have it down to about 20 minutes a week during the season, and about 5 minutes in the playoffs. Value is the name of the game, and Baltimore is under rated this week. The Eagles are getting close to a sharp number. Good Luck this week, just let me know if you have any more questions.

Hi vegasflyer56, thank you for the information and responce. I understand what you are saying about the Balt - Pitt game. Based upon this power rating, Balt is favored over Pitt by 4 and the fact that they are getting points make Balt very attractive - a good value. However, what about Balt playing 18 straight games, maybe they are a little beat up, Flaco's QB rating and a being a rookie.Balt beats Miami a week team - Balt beats Tenn a strong team. Pitt beats SD a middle of the raod team.Pitt may be comming into this game in better shape than Balt. As for the Cards and Eagles, I think the Cards are the hottest team right now.The Eagles are second.The power rating for the Cards must be rising fast, because they are rising how do you know if they have hit their potential or leveled out or maybe they will continue to climb? I am leaning on Pitt and Cards. I will say that I am not sure about the Cards. I don't see Balt keeping up with Pitt come the second half. The game starts out slow 3-3 or 10 -7. Come the second half, maybe in the late second quarter I see Pitt pulling away and covering, they don't blow Balt out, but they do cover.Balt is tired, Flaco will not win the passing game.Please let me know what you think, share, comment. Thank You.

I like the Cards this week but something about them just makes me say no ???

im 4-4 in playoffs so far

vegas did you post a mistake saying Carolina and NY giants won?

im taking Baltimore and Arizona...

I'll start with the Cardinals first. They clinched their division early, and by doing that, had two heavy losses to Minnesota and New England. The Cards had a 26 PR going into the Viking game. They dropped 3 points, to a 23 and after New England, they dropped another 3 points to a 20. They did get back up one point, to a 21 after Seattle. At that point of starting the playoffs. They were the weakest rating on the board. The six points they lost waiting for the playoffs could arguably be meaningless. I started them at 21 for the playoffs, but definetly a case could be made to throw out those two blowouts and grade from there. Let's just say we threw the 6 points out. After the Atlanta game, the Cards would have increased their power rating 2 points and be rated a 28. At Carolina they increased their power rating 3 points and would now be a 31+ they get 2.5 points for home field, making them a 33.5. Philly is a 32.5 The big question is how meaningless were those 2 games. I think the Minnesota game was meaningless to a point, but they really did not want to go to New England and get blown out. I think at that point, they had lost their momentum, and the Seattle victory wasn't like they blew them out. They are a surprise, and if you throw out those two games, they would be right there. This same thing happened last year to Tampa Bay, who lost all their momentum going in, the difference is the Cards are still playing, have momentum, and an unexpected home game! They are definetly an x-factor.

I'm not buying the tired theory about the Ravens. They played a good team on the road, and yes, they were out statted, but their defense can compensate with turnovers. The Ravens are at a 41 power rating because they did have to play their tails off every game, just to get a wild card. The Steelers clinched a week earlier and had an extra week off. So while Baltimore was adding to their power rating, the Steelers stayed the same. Even with the victory over San Diego, the Steelers power rating stayed the same. The victory wasn't enough to move their power rating 1 point. The power ratings are designed to not over compensate a large margin of victory, or defeat, but the team must win or lose at least 5 or more points off of the pointspread to gain or lose points off of their power rating. Pittsburgh was favored by 6.5 and won by 11. The difference was 4.5 The power ratings make me money over the season and the playoffs, but they will lose one here and there. Out of the two games, I am leary about the Eagles, just for the facts mentioned above. The Cards are a team that wasn't supposed to be there, and look at who has homefield and a little taste for revenge from a 28 point loss earlier in the season. I hope this explains my reasoning.

coachmarc..I was showing that the power ratings favored Carolina by 7.5 and the line was 10, so I played Arizona. The same with the Giants, whose power rating was 2.5 points, but they were laying 4, which was too much, so I played the Eagles. I should have clarified that. I was trying to show each teams power rating and what the difference was compared to the line. Then you would bet the against that team if the pointspread was higher than the power rating, which in both cases they were. I am glad you are shooting me these questions, It is easy to assume that everyone knows how this works, I try to catch myself from doing that, because it leaves you guessing at what I meant. Thanks for the heads up.

Starting with the wildcard

The power ratings favored Baltimore by 16 and the line was -3, so my play was Baltimore.
The power ratings favored Atlanta by 6 and the line was -2 so I played Atlanta
The power ratings has Philadelphia and Minnesota at a pick, so I took the points with Minnesota
The power ratings favored San Diego by 1.5, they were +2, so I played San diego

division playoffs

The power ratings favored Baltimore by 4.5, they were +3, so I played Baltimore
The power ratings Favored Carolina by 7.5, the line was -10, so i played Arizona
The power ratings favored the Giants by 2.5, the line was -4, so I played the Eagles
The power ratings favored Pittsburgh by 8.5, the line was -6.5, so I played Pittsburgh

conference playoffs
The power ratings favor Baltimore by 4, they are +6..My play Baltimore+6
The power ratings favor the Eagles by 5, the line is -3.5, My play Eagles-3.5

This should make that top chart a little easier to read.

Hi vegasflyer56, if we were to say that we are in week 3 of the season and in the first two weeks the Cards beat, ATL and Carolina what would their PR be going into week 3 to face Phily. Then apply the same parameters to Phily, we are going into week 3, in week 1 they beat Minny and in week 2 they beat NYG. What would their PR be? I think that that the PR for the Cards is rising, they have the momentum and they had to come out of a hole. I feel that the Cards are the play here, I do have concerns and that is I am sure the Phily will not allow Fitzgerald to run wild as he did against Carolina, will the O line of the Cards handle the blitz, Warner is not mobile. I think that the Cards momentun is stronger than the momentun of PhilyI also look at the public betting - who they like, Philly on the road for a 3rd time, the time zone is not a factor and Donovan, will he lay an egg.
As for Pitt, they are not the big smash mouth team of the past, that was lost when Bettus retired, their defense is very good but it is not the steel curtain.Their was a time when Pitt had the ball and if it was 4th and 2 and they wanted the first down they would just go for it. They would line up and play smash mouth football. They would not have called the trick play at mid field like they did against SD, we all know that Pitt did not make that 4th and 2.Balt having to be in the same division needing to compete has created a team that can now compete with Pitt - smash mouth football. Balt probably plays smash mouth football better than Pitt. However, Pitt can play some air attack, maybe they have a little more finess football in them than does Balt - I don't think tha Balt can play the air attack as well as Pitt, I don't know for sure but I think that the stats will support this. If Balt is to win this game I think they will have to make points of the turn overs and they are very capabel of doing that. I don't think that big Ben will have enough time to check down 1st, 2nd,3rd option receivers, he will have to do some footwork and extend the drive.Will Flaco keep his cool? Flaco does not have a good QB rating, I think it is less than 50%.He has however improved over the season - touch down to interceptions ratio and as of the last 1/2 of the season he has not lost a game for Balt by throwing an interception. Willie Parker did not play in one of the regular season games when Pitt and Balt played. If Willie Parker has a decent day Balt will not keep up. I forget the running backs name for Tenn, he played the first 1/2 and was out in the second because of an injury. Would he have changed the outcome of the game if he was playing the second 1/2, he was runing and moving the ball against the Balt D. I know that we are talking if this and if that. Please share your thoughts and opinions. Comments are welcomed.Thank you.

ok since they didn't play Atlanta until the playoffs, but at week 3, Arizona had started at a 20, which is 1 point below average, (average is 21), they beat SFO 23-13 at -2.5 and raised their power rating to 21, they hosted Miami at -7, and raised their power rating to 23, the third week they lost to Washinton and their power rating was stabile at 23. Atlanta had a power rating of 15.5, beat Detroit soundly and raised their power rating 3 points to 18.5. Then went to Tampa Bay, but only lost 1 point for a 24-9 loss, dropping them to a 17.5. They met Kansas City at home with a decisive victory and raised their power rating to 20.5 So if Arizona was to meet Atlanta in week 3 at home, you would give Arizona 2.5 points for home field advantage, making them a 25.5, and Atlanta a 20.5, giving Arizona a 5 point cushion. Arizona did meet Carolina in week 8, and my ratings had Carolina at 28.5 Arizona was 25, and coming off a bye week, making a 3.5 point difference. I played Arizona in that game as the odds were +5.5, which was higher than the 3.5 point difference that I had between the two teams. I started Carolina off at a 21 (average), 1 point higher than Arizona. On the flip side, Philadelphia started at a 22.5 You could make a case for Arizona if both teams started equally, but the Cardinals would still be a 4 point dog at this point in the season. This is the Cardinals quarterly power rating for 2008, 1st quarter 0, 2nd quarter +8, 3rd quarter -3, 4th quarter -4, playoffs +4. The Eagles 1st quarter +3, 2nd quarter +1, 3rd quarter -2, 4th quarter +4, playoffs +4, so both teams are winning in the playoffs at an even rate, and Arizona's weak 4th quarter was due to them clinching the division early. If you look at the 3 rd quarter, neither one of these teams had much of a chance to meet in the Championship game. Now that they are, revenge for Arizona, could get them in to the Super Bowl. I think Philadelphia has more of a purpose, than Arizona. The Cardinals are living on turnovers, and I'm not so sure they will get them in this game.

Hi vegasflyer56, thank you for the great information. Gl in your picks this weekend. I am leaning on PHILY and PITT.

4frogster, GL to you too. that line is up to -4 on the Eagles. It is still be a good number.