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CONFERENCE USA 2009 FOOTBALL PREVIEW

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CONFERENCE USA 2009 FOOTBALL PREVIEW
By Marc Lawrence

The CONFERENCE USA is 12 years old and like a youngster about to enter puberty, they are breaking out all over.

Four teams from the league reached the 70-point scoring plateau in a game last year. That represented twice as many that had scored that many points in CUSA history.

Teams in the league gained an average 401.8 YPG for the season, second only to the BIG 12 CONFERENCE in total yardage production in 2008. Leading the charge was Houston QB Case Keenum, the nation's leader in total offense, who tossed for nearly 3 miles and 44 TD's.

The CUSA was home to the most improved team in the land last year when Rice went from 3-9 to 10-3. Yes, it was a breakout year for this conference in 2008.

Here is my take on the CONFERENCE USA for 2009. Returning starters are listed alongside each team's name (returning QB's designated with an *). Coming up next: the INDEPENDENTS. Enjoy...

CUSA

ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM – *11 / 7
Team Theme – NO LONGER HAM STRUNG
Head coach Neil Callaway enters his 3rd year on the sidelines in Birmingham with promise aplenty for this season and the future ahead. That's because his Blazers enjoy the fruits of more than 68 scholarship players (82) for the first time in three years. They also welcome back 51 lettermen, including 18 returning starters (all 11 on offense) and versatile QB Joe Webb who passed for over 2300 yards and rushed for over 1000 yards last season. Holding the most promise for Callaway, though, is a defense that improved dramatically at the end of the season in 2008. In the first three games of last year's campaign UAB's stop unit allowed 129 points and 1703 total yards, including 702 rushing. Over the final three games, those numbers ratcheted down to 41 points, 848 yards and 258 rushing. We like the turn of events.
PLAY ON: vs. Memphis (11/14)

CENTRAL FLORIDA – *10 / 6
Team Theme – OFFENSIVELY CHALLENGED
The defense we lauded on this page last year more than lived up to it's billing when they improved its stats for the 3rd straight year. The good news is that 6 of the 7 starters from the front 7 are back in 2009. That same unit led the CUSA in rush defense and pass efficiency. To top it off, an already strong LB corps returns Cory Hogue and Jordan Richards, who missed most of last season with injuries. On the other side of the ball is an offense that shriveled almost 200 YPG in 2008. Part of the reason is the Knights were one of four teams to start a true freshman QB (Rob Calabrese) in the majority of games last season. With 10 starters back from last year's shrunken offense here's hoping they accept the challenge and show up this year.
PASS

EAST CAROLINA – *8 / 8
Team Theme – DEPP THROAT
When it comes to weighing the strength of a nine-win season, there is no better barometer than putting a team's opponents on the scale. That being the case, the Pirates' victories against the ACC champion (Virginia Tech) and the Big East runner-up (West Virginia) last year validated Skip Holtz as a heavyweight in the world of non-BCS coaches. Not only did Holtz continue his climb up the win-ladder - ECU has increased its victory total every year since he arrived – his troops went 3-0 against ranked opponents in 2008. Hence, its no surprise that Skippy is creamy-smooth when it comes to covering the spread (31-20 ATS with the Pirates). The defending CUSA champs welcome 16 starters back, including four all-conference players. Johnny Depp's favorite team will need to fight their way successfully past 7 bowlers and a Division 1AA playoff foe and keep its strangle hold on the CUSA to continue raising the bar. All hands on deck!
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Memphis (10/27)

HOUSTON – *8 / 5
Team Theme – CASE IN POINT
When you are a second-year head coach, off a bowl-winning debut season, there is no better feeling than knowing the Conference Player of the Year will be calling signals in your huddle. That's what having QB Case Keenum means to Kevin Sumlin. Keenum tossed for almost 3 miles and 44 TD's while leading the nation in total offense last year. Points aplenty come from super-sophomores. RB Bryce Beall rushed for 1247 yards and led CUSA in scoring with 102 points and WR Tyron Carrier posted 80 receptions good for 1026 yards and 9 TD's. In fact, 86% of the offense is back and anxious to at repeat last year's feat. The season-ending loss to Rice, in which Keenum put up 42 points while competing an NCAA record 25 straight passes, will certainly be a game the Cougars will point for in 2009.
PLAY ON: vs. Rice (11/28) - *KEY

MARSHALL – *7 / 8
Team Theme –PLOP, PLOP, FIZZ, FIZZ
Like college basketball teams that find themselves “on the bubble” before the start of the NCAA Tournament, Mark Snyder is there, too. The likeable coach knows that if he is to avoid a visit by the Grim Reaper, he'll need to post his first winning season since taking over the Thundering Herd program four years ago. It all starts with a defense that returns 8 starters, including all-1st team CUSA DL Albert McClellan. The former CUSA Defensive Player of the Year joins a line that returns intact. The stop-troops will be under the tutelage of new DC Rick Minter, former Cincinnati head coach. On the offensive front, Marshall returns 7 starters, including QB Mark Cann, RB Darius Marshall (a 2nd team all-CUSA performer) and TE Cody Slate. The players are in place. Snyder and his effervescent personality will be looking for relief.
PASS

MEMPHIS – *4 / 7
Team Theme – WILL HE OR WON'T HE?
With 5 JUCO transfers and 7 transfers from other Division-1 schools, competition will be fierce for starting spots on the Tigers' roster in 2009. That's good news for head coach Tommy West, who took his squad bowling last year for the fourth time in the last five seasons. It was even better news when the NCAA granted a 6th year of eligibility for oft-injured QB Will Hudgens. Regardless, Memphis shook an 0-3 start to make it to the St. Petersburg Bowl behind the services of QB Akelon Hall. He's back to battle Hudgens, along with SR RB Curtis Steele, a 2nd team all-CUSA member, who rushed for 1223 yards last season. Rest assured, West won't lose any sleep worrying about Hudgens' status. A defense that made huge strides last year finds him sleeping like a baby these days.
PLAY ON: vs. Central Florida (10/3)

RICE – 4 / 8
Team Theme – CHASED OUT
What can improving a team's defense 59 YPG over the course of one season mean to a team? Plenty, if you're the Rice Owls. The outcome of the 2008 upgrade speaks for itself. The Owls allowed 10 less PPG, scored 10 PPG more than they did and saw its win total ratchet to 10, for the first time since 1949. As a result, they were the most improved FBS team last season. Unfortunately, the rags-to-riches story may be a one-verse chapter for the Owls, who lose CUSA Player of the Year QB Chase Clement to graduation. Clement filled the air for 4119 yards and 44 TD's during last year's remarkable turnaround effort. This year, the Owls loses lose 97% of its passing and 93% of their running attack. To make matters worse, the first three games of the season are on the road. Ouch.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UAB (9/5)

SMU – *8 / 8
Team Theme – JONESIN' FOR WINS
Some things in life are expensive, while others are flat out costly. It depends on the size of your checkbook. The regents at SMU have determined the $2 million dollars per victory paid to June Jones last season is merely a down payment on what's in store. The problem is, at this rate, he could be working for minimum wage by the time his contract expires in 2012. We understand the Ponies were the youngest team in the country last year when 13 true freshmen found their names on the season opening two-deep roster. But the fact of the matter is the mega-dollars being showered upon Jones should buy more than one win against a Division 1-AA team (Texas State). The good news is the aforementioned freshmen are now sophomores. That, and the fact there are only four years remaining on June-bug's contract.
PASS

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI – *8 / 8
Team Theme – HAT TIP
A tip of the hat is in order for the fine job by rookie head coach Larry Fedora last year. He stepped in and filled big shoes left by former coach Jeff Bower. As a result, the Eagles will be riding a 15-year win streak and 7-game bowl win streak this season. Better yet, Fedora welcomes back a plethora of talent from last year's squad, including QB Austin Davis, who set school freshmen records for passing yards (3128) and TD's (23). Joining Davis are first-team CUSA performers, RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown. On the defensive side of the ball, USM welcomes back three All-CUSA members from last year's team. Best of all, a schedule loaded with seven teams that ended the season with sub .500 records has Fedora brimming with confidence.
PLAY ON: vs. Virginia (9/19)

TEXAS EL PASO – *8 / 7
Team Theme – TOE MAIN POISON
Slowly but surely, Mike Price is getting it right. After falling eight points short of bowl-eligibility in 2007, his team finished one-game light of making weight last year. A strong returning cast this year is led by the powerful arm of JR QB Trevor Vittatoe, who has tossed for 6375 yards and 58 TD's in two seasons with UTEP. He's joined in the backfield with the Miners' top two RB's from 2008 and WR Kris Adams, a CUSA honorable team member. If Price can somehow get past a troublesome trend of losing games during the 2nd half of the season (the Miners are just 3-15 the final six games of the campaign the last three years), he just may have this team bowling again at season's end.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. New Mexico State (9/19)

TULANE – *7 / 6
Team Theme – WAVE RUNNER
An anticipated crash by the Waves occurred on call last season when the loss of star RB Matt Forte to the NFL proved too much for Tulane to overcome. Not only did the ground game take a hit, rushing for 83 YPG less than it did in 2007, so did the point production. An 0-8 conclusion to the season left Tulane with only two wins for the season. As a result, head coach Bob Toledo finds himself on the hot seat, where the view is never good. The good news is RB Andre Anderson returns. Anderson rushed for 864 yards and 7 TD's in the first seven games of the season before suffering a season-ending injury in the 2Q against Rice last year. If the defense does its job, Toledo could keep his.
PLAY ON: vs. Army (10/3)

TULSA – 6 / 8
Team Theme – YARDMASTER
Mark it down. It's only a matter of time before Golden Hurricane head coach Todd Graham takes over a major program. In two seasons with Tulsa, his teams have averaged 553.5 YPG, while scoring 44 PPG. It's why Graham owns 21 wins. Another reason was his call to attention on the defensive front in 2008. That's where his team improved 74 YPG, thus giving the offense more touches. It's also a contributing reason why Tulsa scored a mind-boggling 45 times with less than two minutes remaining in games last year. We love the fact that eight starters from last year's stop-troops are back. The biggest negative comes in having to break in a new starting QB (Jacob Bower) for a third straight season. Then again, it didn't phase Graham in the least last year, did it? Let the bidding begin as the Tulsa Train tolls on.
PLAY ON: vs. East Carolina (11/5) - *KEY

 
Posted : June 29, 2009 7:24 am
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Scoring in the USA
By Kevin Rogers

The first word that comes to bettors' minds when they think of Conference USA is offense, and plenty of it. Three teams (Tulsa, Houston, and Rice) averaged well over 44 ppg last season. On the flip side, seven schools allowed at least 30 ppg. The games within this conference will never disappoint from an entertainment standpoint, but may be frustrating with the shootout mentality.

Half the conference advanced to bowl games, compiling an impressive 4-2 record. East Carolina made early headlines last season by knocking off Virginia Tech and West Virginia the first two weeks of the season. The last three conference title games have seen five different teams, with Tulsa being the only team to play twice for the C-USA championship in this span.

Amazingly, C-USA is the only major conference that did not see a coaching change this past offseason, but seven head coaches have been at their present school for two years or less.

Only three teams were profitable from an ATS standpoint last season, as Rice (9-4 ATS), Tulsa (8-5 ATS) and Southern Miss (8-5 ATS) made bettors money. The biggest money-burner in the conference was ECU, covering only five of 14 games. The Pirates went 0-5 ATS last season as road favorites, with their biggest margin of victory in those contests being four points. The best team to 'fade' over the years is Tulane, who has covered just 41% of their games since 2003 (27-38-1 ATS).

The 'over' seems like the easy play among C-USA teams, however, only five teams inside the league hit more 'overs' than 'unders' last season (Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Houston, and UTEP). Interestingly, two of the three worst defenses in the league in '08, SMU and Tulane, combined for 15 'unders' in 23 games.

Two of those high-powered teams will have to move forward without their quarterbacks this season. Tulsa loses David Johnson's 4,059 yards, while Rice is without Chase Clement and his 44 touchdown tosses from last season. The best quarterback as far as yardage goes returns, with Houston's Case Keenum (5,020 yds, 44 TD, 11 INT) coming back for his junior season.

Houston returns not only Keenum, but also RB Bryce Beall (1,247 yards, 13 TD) and top WR Tyron Carrier (80 rec, 1,026 yds, 9 TD). Kevin Sumlin's team expects to play two high-scoring contests against Big 12 opponents in September, travelling to Oklahoma State, then hosting Texas Tech. The Cougars dropped 40 points or more on seven occasions last season, but allowed at least 30 points or more in seven games.

Todd Graham's high-powered Tulsa offense will have some new faces this season. The Golden Hurricane, off an 11-3 campaign and a GMAC bowl victory, replace the aforementioned Johnson, leading rusher Tarrion Adams (1,548 yds, 14 TD) and leading receiver Brennan Marion (1,112 yds, 8 TD). Graham's defense returns eight starters, a unit which ranked 6th in the conference in points allowed.

The panel at VI has plenty of differing opinions on this wide-open conference. Last year's conference champ, East Carolina, was chosen to repeat by Judd Hall and Brian Edwards. Despite ECU's struggles ATS last season, Hall feels the Pirates have plenty of weapons to win C-USA again. "I don't expect results like we saw in '08 to happen again this season with Patrick Pinkney running an offense that returns eight starters," Hall said. "Plus, you have a defense bringing back most of a secondary that ranked third in C-USA last season."

Edwards has plenty of faith in Pirates head coach Skip Holtz. "Once again, Holtz has scheduled nothing but heavyweights in non-conference play. ECU will play at West Virginia and at North Carolina in Weeks 2 and 3. After an open date, the Pirates will go to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech on a Thursday night in which the Hokies will have revenge in mind after ECU stunned Frank Beamer's team in Charlotte last season," says Edwards.

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles were picked by Chris David to win the conference this season. David feels the Golden Eagles built up some nice momentum last season, "After losing five straight games midway through the season Southern Miss closed with five consecutive victories. Looking back at the losses, four came by seven or less and the other was a 24-7 loss to Boise State." USM finishes the season with road tests at Houston, Marshall, and East Carolina. David adds, "Closing the year with three of four on the road is tough, but if Fedora can win a couple of these tight contests then look out for the Eagles."

It's tough to fall down any further following a 1-11 season, but I'll take SMU to be the sleeper of this conference. June Jones' Mustangs draw East Carolina, Rice, and UTEP at home this season, while QB Bo Levi Mitchell looks to improve from last season. The Mustangs also lost four games by less than a touchdown inside C-USA play. Edwards has plenty of confidence in Jones' program, "SMU will bounce back from a 1-11 season and go to a bowl game during the second year of June Jones' tenure in Dallas. The Mustangs nearly pulled upsets as double-digit underdogs against bowl-bound Tulsa and Houston last year."

Two 4-8 teams from a season ago are seen to be sleepers by our panel. David selected the Marshall Thundering Herd, while Hall tabbed the Knights of UCF to be the surprise teams of the conference. David feels that despite the poor record from a season ago, Marshall's defense will shine, "The Herd only gave up 27.7 PPG, which was fifth best in the conference. That number should improve with eight starters back, including all-conference DT Albert McClellan."

Despite UCF's struggles to score points last season, Hall is high on the Knights making plays this season. "There wasn't a worse offensive team than the Knights last year, ranking 119th in the nation with 229.5 yards per game in total offense. That will not happen this season with brand new offensive coordinator Charlie Taffe installing a spread attack for a veteran group of wide receivers." Hall also notes an interesting stat regarding head coach George O'Leary, who is 16-11 ATS in odd-numbered years, and just 12-20-1 ATS in even-numbered years in Orlando.

Both Hall and Edwards were not high on the team from the Crescent City. The Tulane Green Wave has been perennial losers in this conference, and there's no reason to think things will change says Hall. "Tulane finished 2008 with a 2-7 ATS run. That shouldn't surprise anyone as they're 16-29 ATS record since 2005. I don't see that trend to stop with an offense that is starting a brand new QB and wide receivers."

The key losses offensively at Rice and Tulsa make them fade material to David and myself, respectively. Graham has turned things around with the Golden Hurricane, but losing the starting quarterback, running back, and wide receiver will take some adjusting. The same story applies with the Owls, as David points to Rice's key losses. "The success was directly attributed to the offense, led by the trio of QB Chase Clement, WR Jarrett Dillard and TE James Casey. Unfortunately for Rice, that trio is gone and will be next to impossible to replace." Rice's schedule does not benefit them at all, David says. "The schedule is a nightmare, which include a pair of conference road trips to ECU and Houston. After winning 10 games last season, Rice might be lucky to get half that mark in 2009."

VegasInsider.com

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 12:10 pm
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